Kasimir

Soddit, lesgo. Alea iacta est. @Matrim's Dice - Changing my character, though. I'd like to be Silas Keen, an aging bounty hunter who signed up to the expedition because it was supposed to be a milk run.

Not...yet >> I'm thinking very hard about it and will confirm by Saturday. Maybe request to pinch-hit instead. But I also can't help making the joke because bad distro things happen to me when Araris specs, if you get my drift >> Once is accident, twice is enemy action, thrice would be my own damned fault in inviting RNGesus to curse me >:(

*concern level sharply spikes* Mat, I need to think about this. It's not you, it's me. Just certain life experiences that have left me a bit concerned.

Presume these PMs aren't continuous, so if I want to keep talking to my bro TJ, I've got to keep sending in a PM order? Please don't ask me why I didn't ask this earlier it only became relevant to my interests now

Ah, memories...

I'm gonna regret this ain't I :| Signing up as Keris, who ain't afraid of no ghosts! (No I'll figure something out in terms of character sketch beyond that. Eventually. Eh, how about we run with that. Let's be a fortfolk sceptic meant to write a report on Shade superstitions in the Forests!) I kind of want to change my playstyle for this game, fair warning. I don't really want to do long analyses and stuff for as much as I can manage it. It's a QF anyway, so ain't nobody got the time for that. Low effort Kas ftw Welcome to QF63: Simple Rules, where the death toll is high and the writeups will be minimal! That's right guys, the write-ups are just like Coke Zero: streamlined essence of Zen

One way or another, I figgered I was mebbe a bit more confident that Ora [OOC: @Devotary of Spontaneity] was Village, than when I'd started. It'd been something small at first, that sorta gut feelin' ye get when ye know how someone works. 'Course, it was the first day, so one way or 'nother, be a tough call to bet the village on it, as they say. But that last minute accusations? Pickin' out Derrick [OOC: Ashbringer] then sayin' he wasn't that suspicious in her eyes? I'd heard her thoughts and reckoned they came from a position that seemed a wee bit more Village to me than not. Thing was, iffen you looked at how Ora's thoughts were developin': First, she says this: Then, she says: So she was thinkin' that Disaster [OOC: @Shining Silhouette] was Spiked, an' that if Disaster was like to endanger Dwarf [OOC: @xinoehp512], then mebbe Dwarf weren't of the Spiked after all. But then, she stops accusin' Derrick a couple moments later: I askit her, and she shrugs and says, well, she figgered Disaster were Evil, and if Disaster wanted Derrick dead, then she wanted no part of it. Thing is, ye gotta reckon these things come seconds apart. [OOC: Shining first votes Ash at 0458hrs. For reference, rollover is at 0500hrs. Devo votes Ash at 0458hrs and unvotes at 0459hrs.] I figger one way or another, as someone who was as making tough calls at the last minute, reckon it be hard for a Spiked to fake the coherence an' consistency of that kinda thought at the last minute. Figger it'd be mortal hard for one of 'em to think through the implications fast and figger she best stop goin' for Derrick. That kinda pressure response, it rang fair true to me. [OOC: What I'm saying is that I think it's a tall order for E!Devo to work out a consistent way of reacting to Shining in terms of the votes and to keep that in mind at the very last minute with Shining editing his votes, given their posts were seconds apart. It's not impossible but I deem it unlikely. That sort of kneejerk fine-grained consistency under pressure - Shining Evil, don't vote with Shining, down to that last unvote, feels more like it emerges from a Village mindset than an Evil mindset. Make what you will of it.] Edited to add: [OOC: Did some pulling of the timestamps from a script I wrote back in LG84 just for the heck of it since the closeness of the posts IMO has some bearing on Silho and Devo both. I really should have updated the script to make it more user-friendly but oh well. Here is the sequence of events. Shining claimed to have made two edits. Shining unvotes Ash in twenty seconds. Likely not doc related, very natural and immediate panic reaction. Given Ash is Village, don't really see this coming from an Elim mindset since that re-endangers Ash. Looks kinda V. Devo votes Ash nine seconds after Shining's unvote. Unclear if related to Shining voting Ash or not - had nearly half a minute (=29s) to see Shining vote Ash, but Ash vote is packaged in a statement which takes time. Shining votes Xino fifty two seconds after Devo's post. Unclear if related to Devo. Devo unvotes Ash five seconds after Shining votes Xino, and over a minute after Shining unvotes Ash. Not so confident this looks good for Devo any longer, though I'll still be fair that under a minute EoD responses are hard for Elims to be consistent with, and she cites unvoting Ash as a response to Shining voting Ash so that's ??? Devo's stated thought process in PMs is: Shining knew Xino Village -> therefore save Xino, vote Ash. Shining Evil -> if Shining vote Ash, unvote Ash, What does the timing look like for this? This is a slightly more odd sequence of events. I am no longer sure about this. You could say it is still a very EoD crunch and it's still quite fast-moving and difficult for E!Devo to stay consistent. But at the same time, Devo unvoting Ash in response to Shining's vote on Ash is over a minute delayed, and she did a single word unvote. By that point, she should at least have seen that Shining unvoted Ash, so why follow her suspicion off Ash again? Especially since Shiining very rapidly unvoted Ash, which if you think E!Shining, suggests no commitment there. Leaving this for someone else to make sense of. I'll try some other time.

[OOC: Okay, fair enough.] [OOC: I mean, yeah, but there's a difference between proactively soliciting and being passively open to it, IMO. One puts the option on the table, the other waits for people to suggest it as an option off your reads. It's just a bit odd to me, since I tend to associate V!Mat with being proactive, but I'm sure I'll live to ask more questions/do more analysis another day. Maybe ]

[OOC: Viability. Dannex and JNV were not necessarily lynches for which you'd get support. JNV'd signposted support for a TUN lynch, even if weakly. There was also a single existing TUN vote, and you seemed to be discussing every single train that was viable and existing. Cin/Silver, as you point out, were off the table. Here's the post I linked to in my discussion of everyone, including you, that I had questions on: I've bolded all the players/trains you mention as an option. My presumption was that you didn't mention JNV and Danex as those weren't live trains. TUN could, technically, as you point out, be a self-vote, but JNV had expressed support for a TUN lynch, so there was certainly more appetite there, given you'd nulled Ash explicitly in your reads. Your post also happened at 0131hrs, which was 3.5 hours to rollover, so I was wondering about that, since there was enough time to pivot to a train you were more convinced by, once again, given appetite. As we know now, JNV didn't show up, but then!Mat wouldn't have known that. Unless there was something else going on See above - JNV indicated sus of TUN and a willingness to go to TUN. You highlight Ash as an option over Bookwyrm and don't mention TUN. That seems to imply that practically, you prefer Ash over a TUN train, since he wasn't an option. I admit part of me is wondering if I am tunnelling a bit too hard by wondering why V!you doesn't just go, "Ok guys btw if anyone's game for TUN or any of my null-s, I'm open for that as well."]

[OOC: 1. QF62, V!Kas QF62, V!Kas. You played with V!Kas in this game, and V!Kas produced this monster. Funny you don't seem to remember it. Said monster/insanely time-consuming post: 2. AG7, V!Kas Included with table. 3. LG73, V!Kas Defense pathwalking. Guess who did a spreadsheet? 4. LG79, V!Kas Form tracking splits. Why have a life when you can do long vote progression trackers? Malibu hunts based on gem and actions tracking. Spoiler alert: Ash foiled me. 5. AG8, V!Kas Some insane squeaky lad analyses PMs and produces a gambit. Sure ain't me though, is kel. We know kel is a madlad. Squeaky madlad also puts down a huge post outlining the gambit thoughts, evidence, counterarguments, replies, and results. Mad squeaky boi in AG8 dead doc posting work he did but never showed in the thread due to little need for it and lack of confidence I can do you one better, though. My Elim history is so small I can actually go through every single E!me game and show this doesn't happen in them :eyes: If you're with me, hit the spoiler eye. If you have better things to do, go ahead The irony is I am against effort-clears as Orlok is, but it's also a known fact about my playstyle, albeit one I don't like to advertise as much, that E!me doesn't actually put in as much effort as V!me, or to put it another way, V!me doesn't actually give many crems at all Because this sits awkwardly to my commitment not to effortclear, I don't advertise this, but players who know me well recognise this as one of my many Village/Evil tells. E!me absolutely cuts corners where possible to appear active but dislikes the situation and CBA to pretend solving because it's boring. V!me thinks it's grand fun In summation: Sure, E!me and V!me will share analysis styles. I can't be that obvious, it would be sad. REACTIVITY is quite true as a measure for E!me, less so for INACTIVITY. E!me will do the bare minimum he can get away with, so when he doesn't have to do analysis or rethink, he will [Edit: will not] I didn't just focus on the Xino argument, though I believe it's helpful to get rid of it for once and for all. It can be litigated - it's a matter of fact/an empirical argument, so might as well clear it. I've also IDed questions I have, which I've asked in order to try to get a clearer picture of the cycle, and drive discussion. I've done vote progression analysis yesterday while trying to sense-make. In general, if there's one thing I'm not right now, it's reactive. In terms of effort volume, there's very clearly an overlap but the extreme ends of E!min effort and V!max effort don't overlap for me. V!max effort, for instance, being drawn out by the selection of games I've thrown at you. None of these games show any willingness to do V!max effort. You can take a look and come back to me, but I know my own games, even if you don't, and you can maybe think about what sort of insanity it would take for E!me to assert in this thread something provably false about how E!me plays. But you do you. P.S. Xino, this is what I mean. It doesn't make sense to me someone can listen to a complete mischaracterisation of their playstyle and not go ??? this is obviously false what gives. P.P.S. I've asked before if it would be obviously problematic if V!me were to point out the difference between V!me and E!me. The IM answer then was, "You are legally allowed to screw E!Kas over" so here we go ]

Thing was, that seemed kinda weird to me. And I was the one who was starting to slur my words just a bit. Dyring was keeping the drinks comin' tonight. Figgered I owed him one. But figgered I wasn't the only one who needed a drink at what'd happened, at the news one of us was dead, and a Mistborn at that. 'Cause if you think 'bout it, if ya think I'm one of 'em Spiked, then what do I really gain by doin' a massive breakdown of Dwarf [OOC: Xino] lad? 'Course ya could figger mebbe I'm there as tryin' to defend Dwarf, but then it'd make sense if I went an' said, yeah, in summ'ation, Derrick's [OOC: Ash] one of 'em Spiked, get 'im. Problem is, I never did that. I went an' said, look ye, I can't right make sense o' this one, but mebbe there's something off about how Dwarf ain't pickin' the most like defense, aye, and it ain't sittin' right with me. Mebbe them Spiked are a bit more prone to bein' taken aback, or mebbe he worked out t'was folly to defend himself too early, an' that sorta cold evaluation's more common from a criminal mindset, if ye get what I ken. Point was, I picked Dwarf. Either way ye slice it, it ain't right. Mebbe you say I'm Evil, and Dwarf's Evil. But then I'd've no reason to half-heartedly defend 'im on a single point and turn and vote on 'im anyway. Ye know Derrick's Village now, which means I'd might as well've picked Derrick. Mebbe you say I'm Evil, and Dwarf's Village. But then you ain't got no theory on why I'd go to that lengths to poke about Dwarf. If I was one of 'em Spiked and Dwarf's Village, I know Dwarf's Village anyway. Wouldn't take that much to turn that diggin' and pokin' into a thunderin' denunciation of them as suspectin' Dwarf on the basis of them fancy arguments, an' I'd be vindicated iffen Dwarf flipped, ye ken? 'Course, you could make another reply. Figger you could say, yeah, he's doin' that to distract ye. Pretendin' he be all interested in findin' the Spiked, when he really ain't. But then, since when cain't we do all the things? Since when we be so scairt of doin' them all? 'Cause from th' looks of it, if there's one o' the two of us that's going a-diggin' through posts and votes, it sure ain't ye, ;eyes;. [OOC: Stick] Iffen I was only talkin' about Dwarf, then aye. But I ain't. I'm just as interested in lookin' elsewhere, and said as much. But Adam [OOC: Mat], he be hanging' onto that argument, aye. And I don't wanna hafta deal with that drek again. So I figger, let's see it through, settle it once and for all, and move on. And them as continuing t' litigate this Dwarf affair, wi' hardly an interest in anythin' else...aye, maybe ye looks at 'em. Point is, don't think you ain't got no theory of why I'd be behavin' the way I do if I were Evil. Ye can prognosticatin' all sorts of fancy situs, no doubt, but point is, ain't anythin' in me for that, 'cept a whole lot of pain, and the bottom of a bottle.

So, one way or another, I figured there were some questions I'd wanted to ask. Atelos [ @JNV] was keeping to themselves, quite a bit. We'd talked a little, but for all Atelos'd said about potentially coming back to vote, maybe someone like Edvan Tyrian, they hadn't done so either. Couldn't remember if a fellow like Atelos had a tendency to slip up this much when they'd turned bad, figured it was maybe worth a look. This mattered to me, 'cause Adam [ @Matrim's Dice] was one of them as calling for Dwarf's [ @xinoehp512] head, and little of it made sense to me. [OOC: JNV has gone on the record as wanting to come back and vote, particularly to vote TUN. They promised to come back and vote later, but did not. One thing I seem to have an impression of is that E!JNV always votes, I don't recall if V!JNV is as good about engagement. This is not something I am sure of, so I am willing to check it later on. Still, this is interesting to me because Mat has TUN as a null-, but votes Xino and sort of ignores TUN as a potential train. This is kinda ? because JNV had already indicated willingness to return and suspicion of TUN, and in my view, if Mat was offering a rundown of the existing trains, it's odd to ignore TUN even if the main vote on TUN was TUN, especially since he's a null- read and you have a reason for why you think he might be Evil. So my questions are: @JNV, why didn't you vote? And who would you have voted for? @Matrim's Dice, given your read of TUN, why was TUN not an early option for you?] See, thing was, I'd figured that Edvan Tyrian [ @The Unknown Novel] was a bit out of it. Maybe a bit mist-touched. Certainly were rumours to that effect. Point was, I figured a Spiked would be more careful-like, what with us all flippin' every stone we could find for 'em. Edvan seemed a bit too relaxed. I figured it wasn't the sorta thing I'd expect from a Spiked Edvan, though mists only knew what that'd be like. Founder's heir turned bad, and all. [OOC: I think TUN is engaging a bit too freely for E!TUN but I am not so certain that I would defend it under challenge at this point. Subject to potential revision.] 'Course, my opinion of the lad wasn't shared, and maybe it was better that way. Sometimes I figured maybe I was just several flavours of drunk. Didn't know if I could make sense of my own thoughts, sometimes. Things got messier, though. Always did, in Tyrian Falls. Sometimes I thought the village was cursed. Ain't that a pleasant thought! 'Cause, suppose there was some ill intent in Adam. S'pose Adam'd intended to go for Dwarf. Thing was, you'd've to ask, what'd he gain from it? He stayed on Dwarf, despite Dwarf being endangered. Didn't seem like the sorta play them as in cahoots might make. But Adam tryin' to save Derrick made no sense neither. Derrick was one of us, through and through. Maybe you could figure Adam wanted to lay a false trail, keep fingers pointin' at Derrick after we'd found him. If we found him. But I didn't know if that was his game. No, it just seemed strange to me Adam'd druther go for someone he figured he had no real opinion on, had an uneasy relationship with the arguments about Dwarf, and had overlooked Edvan Tyrian, despite Edvan drawin' some attention of his own. Made me wonder if that was insincere, or Adam pushin' someone as he'd no real view on. Maybe they wanted some distance between them, made 'em seem more unlikely conspirators. [OOC: Generally I just find it a bit ? that in the linked post, Mat is null on Ash and would rather go for Ash than pushing TUN despite having a reasoned null- on TUN, and JNV indicating willingness to return and vote TUN. He's also slightly Elim on Xino, which is a fair bit stronger than his other reads, and on the basis of Illwei's argument, which is where the Xino thing kind of ends up mattering. It does make me wonder if Mat's suspicion of TUN is more distancing, which would incline me to Mat-TUN E/E.] Problem for me was, I figured Edvan's heart was maybe in the right place. Wasn't sure if that was true if Edvan was Spiked. Reckoned I'd need to look more into Edvan Tyrian, if I lived to see the dawning of the day. 'Course, I had other sorts of questions. I'd seen Thoughtful Book Dude [ @The Aspiring Archivist] a couple of times, lingering around the edges of the discussion. He'd said little enough, but it was clear he was watching what was goin' on. I wondered about what he was thinking. Easy enough for 'em Spiked to stay at the edges, where no one was lookin', no one was pokin', no one was askin' questions. Coulda said the same about Felix [ @Just a Silvereye]. Peeled back off Adam, and went to the back. ;eyes;'d [ @_Stick_] left suspicion on Felix, and I wondered if that was worth followin' up with both of them on. [OOC: Stick, as stated. You knew you were heading off for the Night, given your timezone. Why final vote Silvereye? For Archivist and Silvereye, I'm wondering about your thoughts right now.] Then there were others that'd stood out. Riven [ @Alvron] was lingerin', but I knew better if anyone felt they could scare an answer from him. Riven was made of sterner stuff, and wont to watch. Best to keep a careful eye out on him. Then there was Ora [ @Devotary of Spontaneity] - I figured her loyalties maybe lay with Tyrian Falls, but the more I thought of it, the more I still had questions. She was one of the last to accuse Derrick. She'd retracted it quickly enough, but I still wondered why. [OOC: I can't see E!Devo unvoting Ash, especially since Ash flipped Village. Easier to just leave your vote where it is. IDK. I just can't make sense of the late vote movements with E!Devo. Unvoting Ash would only endanger Xino more, so... Devo/Xino not E/E? Lmao. So helpful. But seriously, Devo, why suddenly vote Ash and unvote?] I wondered, too, why Destroyer [ @Illwei] was wont to preach the merits of callin' out suspicions, and then back none of hers at all. Really, I just wondered where she stood, in the end, on the matter of Dwarf, at the very least, if not the Spiked that seemed to be infestin' us like a criminal gang in the underbelly of Luthadel. [OOC: Basically just - why argue about the importance of voting then not vote? Views on Xino or the Spiked?] Wasn't sure how I felt about Tortoise [ @Turtle] showin' up after all the shoutin' and fuss had been done. Wasn't anything solid I could put my finger on, but I'd trudge home in the mists feelin' better tonight if I'd some aquavit in my belly and more thoughts from Tortoise. Really, could say the same as for Simeon Venture [ @Conquestor], seein' as his voice'd stayed so bloody long on Derrick! I wasn't certain how I felt about Disaster [ @Shining Silhouette] now, neither. Part of me didn't feel great about him. Couldn't rightly point to it, other than the fact he didn't feel like his heart was into finding them Spiked. But part of me didn't quite want to go for him, if he was for Tyrian. Lord Ruler knew there wasn't enough going for us right now. Evenlyn Royale [ @Cinnamon] stood out to me, too. Figured that digging her heels in about Derrick was a pretty bad place for her to be, given her suspicions'd been as thin as the mists. Kinda figured that any fellow Spiked should've told her otherwise. And I wasn't sure there was much to be gained by it, since she'd been pretty early on Derrick too. No real reason to go that route. No real person she was protectin', not that I could make out. But I dunno. I didn't like the feel of it, maybe. Sure, Derrick was suspicious of her, but half this bloody village was turnin' on each other. If that were suspicious, we'd all be danglin' from the nearest post. But then again, I didn't know: what were the odds one of 'em Spiked would hide behind something so flimsy? My current estimation was that it was unlikely. But maybe I was overthinkin' things. Sometimes you just had to flip 'em rocks and see what came out of 'em. I'd similar questions about Rylim Libran [ @The Bookwyrm] too. I hadn't liked the seeming contrast between his professed greenness and the way he handled suspicion. No, I was thinking, if you ain't bein' coached, my lad, I'll eat my best hat. Wuhrn had given that to me and I liked that hat, damnit. Thing was, Rylim'd come down with a big case of the nerves near the end, when he figured one too many people were being suspicious of him. See, thing with greenhorns is, they're a bit more sensitive to the threat of death than you'd expect, 'specially if they've turned bad. So maybe there was something in it. But this was known, and I didn't know if Rylim's team, even when coaching him to play the greenhorn card, would let him pull off such an obvious tell. 'Course, they couldn't control how he phrased these things. Maybe it was worth relooking Rylim. But I kinda couldn't really see this sorta play comin' if Rylim were bein' coached, and that was the whole reason I was squintin' at him to begin with! [OOC: As I mentioned, you can only play the new player card once. I'm sensitive to this because that's what I played blatantly in my first Evil game, LG5. Alv would remember, as he babysat me through most of it Bookwyrm is playing this blatantly, Cinnamon isn't and I wouldn't buy it from Cin anyway - Cin's opening is a bit too unhesitant to seem new, which is why I'm squinting at the fact that Cin's reasons are classic new player. Might be reason to subject Cin to more scrutiny tomorrow. Cf. my thoughts on flipping rocks and just trying, because I feel I'm hitting too many layers of IKYK for Cin and Bookwyrm. In Bookwyrm's case, it has to do with the fact that new players who are genuinely new tend to display new player responses, and hints of experienced player responses suggest potential coaching. My issue is that in the later thread I linked...that sort of sensitivity is considered an obvious tell for new players. Also, Bookwyrm is new to SE, which means that his team would've pointed out he would have been in no danger of death C1, due to etiquette. It's possible Bookwyrm made a mistake but I'm currently leaning no that if he were being coached, this would have happened in the first place.] I'd ask my questions, I figured. Someone had to. I didn't want it, though. I wanted the quiet of my aquavit, the comforting darkness as Dyring shuffled about administering to his flock. I wanted to stagger home, too worn to feel the mists, too worn to think of anything but the mists calling me home, drowning out that hole that'd been put into me by the years and the years and the way I felt only empty, only comfortably numb. I wanted this place, my place. Hell's waiting room. I wanted to drown.

[OOC: I'll spell it out once. I'm still very insistent on RP style but given there's maybe three different variants of Illwei's argument, I don't think that RP style can do an already-confusing issue much justice. (Also, given how much everyone processes RP style Which is why I used to try to signpost with OOC notes when not so tired.) If I OOC grey this, I don't know if people can read this or will just go kayana so here goes I guess. I am going to name each iteration of the argument, because I believe they make rather different claims. [I1]: If Xino shifts the structure of his usual playstyle, he is more likely to be an Elim. Here's the original claim from Illwei: Referenced here. Here's the thing. Mat specifically references [I1] as a reason for his Xino vote. @Conquestor, why did your Xino vote stick? But [I1] was also referenced by @Devotary of Spontaneity as reason Conq's vote didn't seem as kayana anymore. So to me, whether the conditional in [I1] is true or not is significant, because it anchors at least Mat's vote, and makes Conq's seem significant. Another reason it matters to me is I woke up to find Xino and Ash tied 3:3. They were both on my 'Ok With Voting Today' list, but as both trains had picked up a lot of momentum and energy since I went to sleep, I wanted to see if there was anything odd or suspicious about it, and if I should break the tie or let RNGesus take the wheel due to indifference. Mat, Ash, et al had handled some of the obvious "Why did you vote X/Y" questions. I was evaluating each move onto the Xino train, so this had to be something I looked at. A final reason this matters to me is I'd rather not pre-flip Xino tonight. And if more time and space means resolving Xino without lynching Xino tomorrow, I'm fine with it. If Xino gets vigkilled or scanned, I'm also fine with it. And if the best decision tomorrow is to flip Xino, cool, I'm down for it, if that's where the lynch discussion takes us. I was also extremely motivated to check this out because, quite simply put, I was dubious. Illwei had run on a mischaracterisation of my recent playstyle in a recent game. As such, I wasn't sure if the Xino argument bore water either. To be clear, this conditional is actually a bit hard to disprove because 'more likely' is more resistant to being disproved, due to how slippery the likelihood judgement is. I'll spell this out later in the section entitled 'Likelihood Judgements.' But my judgement call is that I still don't see much substantive support for this in Xino's historical playdata. With regard to the evidence, check my Annex below. Since I'm tired of relitigating this repeatedly to everyone I can PM, I'm going to put this in a single place. You all can read it, and make your own judgements. Or don't, if you don't want to. I will clearly demarcate the actual data and my own thoughts on this. My view is that it is a blatant mischaracterisation, and the argument only survives by going on to [I2] and [I3]. Given that Illwei herself is uncertain about how much she wants to commit to it literally, I don't know how dominant that argument should be regarded to be. Here's the next iteration, which is a response from Illwei: [I2]: At least earlier on in the game, when Xino is inactive, he is more likely to be an Elim. So we shift from a claim that Xino breaks his usual playstyle structure, to the claim that early game inactivity (I believe Illwei doesn't mean earlier in Xino's playhistory, as we should be concerned about earlier games being poorly representative of Xino's current playstyle) is more likely indicative of E!Xino. But in the same response, we have a third iteration of the argument: [I3]: The more one-liners and responses and reactions instead of being proactive the more likely the person is to be an Elim just generally and xino is an example of that. I am going to cite the relevant post here, and the link can be found here. I am going to emphasise, just once, that [I1], [I2], and [I3] give us three different measures of how likely Xino is to be Evil. [I1] argues in terms of structural playstyle deviation. [I2] argues in terms of inactivity. [I3] argues in terms of reactivity, or how passive a player is. (To be clear, a player can be passive instead of being inactive. Mat posted quite a bit in QF62 but he was also very passive.) Likelihood Judgements: As I promised, a brief section of likelihood judgements. I don't normally litigate this because it doesn't functionally matter. We have some intuitive judgement of likelihood, where we presumably imagine 'more likely' to be substantive enough to justify a vote, on the grounds we want to find Elims and this is a good yardstick. We're not interested in likelihood judgements if 'more likely' is so small - here's an extreme case - p=0.0000001, in which case, it's just not worth trifling with. Clearly, we expect the likelihood captured to be better than random, to be somewhat evidentially robust. Or, to put it another way, 'to be worth the trouble.' I think it's very important to keep holding on to this notion of likelihood. This is because if Xino's playhistory winds up showing this isn't true, then we shouldn't retreat to a general and weaker notion of likelihood in order to preserve [I1], [I2], or [I3]. The argument is only useful insofar as the likelihood judgement that is captured is robust enough to be worth bothering with. So instead, if not borne out, we should give up the argument and look to other means of ascertaining Xino's alignment or our willingness to vote on Xino (e.g. pragmatic or informational arguments.) Illwei alludes to this when she says: We don't, sure. But if repeated datapoints don't justify your pattern, you have two responses. You can weaken the pattern, but which also weakens the argument it is based on, since the pattern justifies the argument. Weaker pattern, weaker evidential basis, weaker argument. Or you can jettison the pattern and move on. Annex: Thoughts/Comments: RP hasn't been a facet of Xino's playstyle for a very long time, and DEVIATION ([I1])from the template is a very imprecise and not very useful way of gauging Xino's playstyle. Xino is moderately flexible in terms of playstyle changes as a player, with external reasons, e.g. mobile and RL partly and markedly affecting how he engages with the game (cf. LG89, MR60.) I believe LG89 and MR60 should be given a bit more evidential weight, because they're recent. Judging by earlier playstyles always runs the risk of playstyle drift throwing you off. INACTIVITY and REACTIVITY ([I2] and [I3]) are moderate measures for Xino. He's had a distribution but generally skews MODERATE to HIGH reactivity and has difficulty maintaining activity levels. I don't judge there is a clear pattern across being Elim, in part because I do not question when players have RL influences. It is possible to argue that some players are less motivated to fight RL if they are Evil. I don't want to make that argument here. To be clear: MR43: Deviation (I1): LOW - RP-heavy, with one or two isolated posts. Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Given the context of the game, he did show up as low activity, and a bit worse than the other players. Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Xino volunteered some rules analysis, RP interacted a little, and saved Striker. MR53: Deviation (I1): HIGH - Many isolated posts (due to inactivity), with no RP, low rules analysis. This is true both as V!Xino and E!Xino. Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Encountered an inactivity warning, with the counterpoint being that unless you claim it was deliberate, RL seems to have pushed him into inactivity. Reactivity (I3): HIGH - V!Xino offered some posts and thoughts, E!Xino was highly reactive. BT1: Deviation (I1): HIGH - Structure of the game lent itself to rapid posts. Inactivity (I2): LOW - Kept stirring the pot every cycle with bids. Reactivity (I3): LOW - Offered thoughts, actively solicited bids, proactively went onto Len. BT2: Deviation (I1): HIGH - Hard to make a judgement call given content, but no appearance of RP, and substantive single analysis post, and more minimal response post. Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Markedly less thread activity than cohort. Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Offers substantive content of own accord in C1, highly reactive in C2. MR57: Deviation (I1): HIGH - Some substantive posts C1 that peter out into low activity commentary interspersed with rebuckets. Inactivity (I2): MODERATE - Good C1, ok other Cs. Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Proactive C1, becomes a bit more reactive as game carries on. MR60: Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation. Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity. Reactivity (I3): HIGH - Votes Devo, otherwise not exactly proactive. LG89: Deviation (I1): HIGH - All short posts, little substantiation. Inactivity (I2): HIGH - Minimal activity. Reactivity (I3): MODERATE - Responds briefly to Araris, makes own post, inactive for second half of cycle. In Summation: FWIW, I think like Mat, I'd like some clarity about Illwei going all over the place, but I do not quite see her post about being Village read coming from E!Illwei. I feel E!Illwei tends to be more careful about how she phrases these things. Further thoughts in a different post. Free to draw your own conclusions. This is the end of the Xino rabbithole for me as I have better things to do with my life.]

'Course, it turned out that the main reason Derrick had been so invested in staying alive was 'cause he was a Mistborn. Found his mistcloak among his things, they did. Who'd've thunk. Truth was, I was a mite disgruntled about how it'd all turned out. Couple of drinks later, I'd lost some time. Unsettled and hazy near-dreams of Spiked, Sahren laughing, Tyrian Falls aflame as a hyena laughed and laughed. Damnit all, guess ;eyes; had gotten to me more'n I'd figured. Always thought I was a bit more of a steady sort. Keep my head down, earn my pay, that sorta thing. Not given to all sorts of maunderings. Superstitions about them mists. Still, I couldn't help but see a tinge of blood-red to the mists. As though this village was cursed. Can't fight a curse, you can't. Ain't nothing you can do. Might as well wave away the mists with your bare hands, you know? For all the good that'll do. See, thing was, I'd clawed my way back to awareness, enough to hear people talkin' about Derrick and Tiny Bearded Dwarf. God, what an awful name. Figured that I might as well have me a look-see. So I poked about a wee bit. The Best Destroyer (see what I mean about some sort of sadistic namer on the loose? Fair criminal, if you ask me) had said that Dwarf was acting odd, be like as Dwarf was one of 'em Spiked. Apparently, Destroyer'd some history with Dwarf, or summat like that. Only I did some poking about, and like it or not, it didn't really make sense to me. Not with Dwarf's history, the way it looked. Now, you could say that Destroyer figured that Dwarf was being more passive than usual in asking around, looking for Spiked. And I was fairly inclined to agree that Spiked ain't got no incentive to look. If you ask me, which you hadn't, but I'd say it anyway, only the best saboteurs are good at lookin' clean. There's always some sorta trace that don't make a lick of sense somewhere. Maybe it's the breadth of their engagement, or the depth of it. Don't rightly know for sure. One way or another, they ain't interested 'cause they know what the answer already is, see? That sort of genuine interest or investment, it's really hard to fake. Oh sure, they can put on a proper mummer's show, and dance for you. But when you look at what they're really engagin' with, and you come up empty, well then. That's a sorta warning sign, in my eyes. So I wasn't minded to disagree with Destroyer on that. But thing was, what everyone'd heard, what was spreading, wasn't about sitting back, waiting for them Spiked as like to destroy us. No, what I'd heard spreading around was that Dwarf was acting like he'd had back when he'd run with some dubious types. And that didn't make no sense to me at all. Anyway, what I took from that was a right mess, no two ways about it. Disaster'd gone for the belated Derrick, only to suddenly turn about and nail his colours to the wall where Dwarf was concerned. Ora'd had some sort of theory that Disaster and Dwarf were both Spiked, and I at least was minded to hear her out. I'd had that much respect for Ora's thoughts, 'least if her loyalties lay with the Village, which I figured was maybe the case, right now. Couldn't say I wasn't a bit disgruntled at how it'd all turned out, really. Still, I figured the real question was if Dwarf were Evil. I'd been in two minds about that, and figured I needed a drink to make sense of this. 'Course, there was more at stake. Knew Adam and I had a longstanding disagreement on the matter, but I figured if Dwarf were Evil, we'd to look at them as accused Derrick. Made the most sense to me. Wasn't sayin' we had to make for Dwarf. But I felt that if one of us were a Seeker, or another Mistborn with an appropriate metal, they'd a good wide field of targets right now. Wasn't sure if Dwarf was the best bet. Made sense to me that the Spiked could get a Smoker on Dwarf, if they had one. Force us to waste a shot. Then again, if they had only so many Smokers, maybe they'd feel that was a waste. Depended on how much they liked risk, I guess. I'd known some criminals to take the gamble. Known others that'd passed it up. 'Course, if they'd maybe a Smoker at best, that was a sign too. Just not one I felt like working out publicly, decipherin' for them. Man gotta have some self-respect than to do their work for 'em, if you know what I mean. Still, you couldn't ever count on a Seeker or a Mistborn to do your work for you. A Coinshot could solve the problem, right and proper, too, aye. But as far as I was concerned, the main work was thinking things through, asking the right questions, poking about. I set more stock on that than some hero with powers coming to save us. But say Dwarf weren't Evil. If Dwarf weren't, my gut told me that maybe Evil'd be more scattered and strewn. Couldn't say if that made me feel better about Disaster, but I reckoned it was fair unlikely the Spiked would pack themselves into the work of accusing both Dwarf and Derrick. Way I saw it, you were as like to let the rest of Tyrian Falls set up the shooting gallery and go for it, let 'em have at it. Why not let others do your dirty work for you? Damnit, I needed a drink. Good thing Dyring was doing good business tonight. No one wanted out in the mists, not with the Spiked out and about. At least, not 'till you'd drunk enough that you didn't bloody care any longer.

>>

I mean, Illwei now thinks there's reason to unvote Xino so ??? My judgement would be it is, and Illwei's claim of a tendency makes sense as a general claim but reads odd when in contact with the playdata because being passive in play =/= literal playstyle deviation, but that's a me judgement, honestly. I'm lost right now and low key tempted to leave the choice to RNGesus because everything is just kayana either way. Xino No guarantees I won't go back on because bloody hell what.

? I have eight minutes to get this right help why Screw OOC colours we can do OOC colours later. @Matrim's Dice - Like I guess the obvious counterpoint is that if it's that bad, Xino should've been defended anyway? But this sort of messes it up because I'm currently here and said it and voted Xino anyway. Edit: WHAT IS THIS POINT PLEASE HELP IT MAKE SENSE ;__;

@Matrim's Dice: [OOC - Like, you could argue that I'm expecting Xino to be hyperrational and that things break sometimes, which I think you said to me in LG89 or some other recent game, and maybe you were Evil then, I do not recall which, but it is a fair criticism, but it's something that really bugs me about this.] [OOC: Ok, so which datapoints exactly...?]

[OOC: That's what's throwing me, honestly. Because how do you make sense of Xino not defending the reasons being bad? I genuinely can't. I don't see how that's odd though - I'm saying the reasons are bad, and I'm voting him because neither Xino nor anyone else pointed that out, and I don't think that there is a reasonable world in which V!Xino sits on this. As far as I can remember, I'm the only one who kept going "I'm not sure though" in PMs and then did a deep dive. I'm not fully sold on this, but I can't see V!Xino agreeing with a blatant mischaracterisation of his play. I actually am not sure E!Xino would either, but how else do you explain this? Like, off the top of my head, my immediate memory is LG89 where Illwei was arguing I was hyperconfident and dropped RP early, so likely to be Evil, both of which didn't bear out in my recent play. That was the immediate thing V!me picked up on - that this didn't make sense. Why doesn't Xino call that out? It just doesn't feel right to me. And yes on Illwei's stance on this confusing me.]

[OOC: I can buy the proactivity point as I think that's something that happens for E!Mat in some games. IDK, to me, the likelihood thing - still doesn't seem to be borne out in the playdata. I can agree generically that I've seen him put more effort in in some V games but he looked passive as all hell in your last MR and was V. At this point, this likelihood thing seems kind of washy and I'm not sure how much stock to put on it in Xino's case. But anyway, I'm kinda sorta voting on Xino now so IDK if that matters, but didn't you also half-take that back? And you're not voting xino either: IDK, it's awkward as I now lean V on you for reasons that pertain to a different post so it's more ??? than E in my head right now.]

[OOC: Xino. Not insanely confident in this, but the immediate answer to me, even if it's a bad one, is that V!Xino is more likely to point out that argument just makes no sense, and E!Xino might have gone through a self-consciousness sort of thing and not thought to push back hard It sounds weak to me, but I'm thinking of how an Elim might not be motivated to push back because you just have that moment where you feel caught even if it's for something beyond your control. IDK. Because holy Twinings just how I don't even this is not in the playdata just how the frick do you let something take off on a mischaracterisation of your playstyle. God, am I even convinced? Is there even a way to make sense of this this feels like a reach and God how the hell do I even make sense of this. If I'm trippin', someone please tell me because I feel trippin'.]

[OOC: RP next round. Woke up after trippy dreams and more pain so I'm going to be asking the doctor for painkillers that do not involve knocking me out and givinf me dreams where I'm tasting the colour yellow and runy egges :/ TUN (1): TUN Bookwyrm (1): Kas Ash (3): Cinnamon, Xino, Bookwyrm Xino (3): Conq, Mat, Ash Mat (1): Danex Silvereye (1): Stick @Araris Valerian: FYI that I voted Bookwyrm, let me know if there's a way for me to indicate it in my RP that makes it easier for you. Cf: Choices are functionally between Ash and Xino right now, unless someone wants to cw. As I've stated in a couple of PMs, I am content to leave my thoughts about Bookwyrm in the thread, and I don't feel 'right' enough to want to push a new player aggressively D1, as long as my 'Eh' list is on the chopping board. Also potential shades of AG8 and LG89 where I 'one thing' deathtunnel a player because I gave undue weight to a single point about their play, so I don't feel excessively confident and will just let my points speak for themselves. @_Stick_: Any reason you're going sidetrain? (Recognise it is unholy for both your timezone and mine, so unlikely to get a response, but I just wanted to ask.) I feel like I came back to a lot of last minute activity, which is good for retrospective analysis, as it likely indicates something struck a nerve, though on the face of it, it's a self-pres fest. My starting position before catch-up is I don't feel I have reason for even a marginal V!read of Ash or Xino, so I'm fine with either of them. But the late surge of activity interests me, and I think it's worth looking through now to try to sensemake, since activity implies commitment, and we want to make sense of what sort of commitment it is. So sort of my last para rehashed. Pre-Meds Trip VC: I go sleep. And then: (1) Shining moves from Illwei to Ash. @Shining Silhouette, what's with this move? You signalled this by suggesting previously that you were not sure about having gone immediately on Illwei, but I'm interested anyway. (2) Mat makes a shift from Wiz to Xino. Reasons spelled out as preferring Illwei's case on Xino, not wanting to be wrong about V!Wiz again at this stage, but favouring Ash over Bookwyrm. Illwei's case on Xino boils down to: So my first reaction is that after GMing and playing with various flavours of Xino, I don't really know what to think. Fair disclaimer that my formative memories of Xino's playstyle are predominantly from when I've GMed him, and he's been all over the place so there's a reflexive 'wait what' from me. I went to do more digging. I think the more precise read of Illwei's point is 'if Xino deviates, he is highly likely an Elim', which =/= functionally to 'if Xino is Elim, then he is highly likely to deviate.' I'm not so sure about the latter, I've GMed him in MR43 as a Villager where he did a brief rule analysis ( @Matrim's Dice, this is what I mean by it's not so much accuracy but I remember what sticks out to me, because before checking, I would not have remembered the rule analysis at all), aggressively RPed, and single-line voted. Main reaction to getting voted on was this, which was fairly understated. He also showed up in the last cycle to counter-vote E!Drake, who was leading a train on him. We've also definitely seen games that have deviated from this, in which Xino was Evil, such as in MR53 where he went inactive for most of it (so I don't count that particularly telling, because inactivity normally happens for reasons beyond the player's control, but it's still a datapoint), and BT2, where he was Evil and did his bucket analysis. I don't necessarily expect much RP out of xino, since this was a BT and no time for that. Offered this defense as well. (Sorry about the formatting, just sorta typing as I go.) BT1, V!Xino did a vote auctioning thing, which was pretty bold and contributed to V!reads of him. Also a deviation. I broadscanned MR60, also seeing deviations like this Devo vote here. MR57, more Xino deviations in the inauguration of his Bucket System. Posted rule analysis, and I don't recall seeing RP out of him. Hell, go read this if you want to see highly engaged C1 V!Xino. And yet another deviation from E!Xino in the recent LG89. Like, sweet Harmony, I don't think this meta argument even bears out in the playdata? And the bigger question: why the hell doesn't Xino defend this? 'Cause like, you know your own playstyle best, so why even let this get off the ground to begin with? It's not something I can make sense of especially given Xino's commitment to staying alive. Damnit but I feel like I've wasted an hour or so of my life just going to check. Mat's argument is that it's less about Xino playing like his Elim games and more about Xino playing less like his Village games, which ok, IDK. Xino is more invested this time and I do agree he feels different but IDK if that's an Evil different. (3) Xino goes Ash for self-pres. He says this is because this gives him the option to switch to Bookwyrm later if Bookwyrm goes for him. Later, he also clarifies that it was about picking less bad options: Which, ok, fair. (4) Shining unvotes Ash. Still no idea why. @Shining Silhouette? FYI that this gets us to: AFAICT, a three-way tie. Thoughts: Potentially looks a bit good that Xino is fine with a three way tie or considered options instead of hopping. Hopping to Book would've given him a better margin, but I don't know if I want to weight this point strongly because it would have guaranteed Book voting on Xino in retaliation, tying them yet again and giving Xino worse odds that the tie of three. (5) Wiz unvotes Turtle. Doesn't want to join a train or kill a new player. (6) Bookwyrm votes Ash for self-pres as Bookwyrm doesn't like being in the tie. V points to Bookwyrm, I feel. E!Bookwyrm should have been counselled by teammates that a three-way tie is no big deal - most Elim teams these days are comfortable with a slight roll of the dice. This point may go out the window if E!Bookwyrm is an E!Smoker or E!Coinshot, maybe E!Mistborn. Then again, self-pres is usually fairly acceptable so this might be the most unsuspicious move Bookwyrm can pull off. IDK, I just don't see this as being super E, because I feel the anxiety seems quite genuine, and that's not the sort of situation an Elim team would be as fussed about. This means: Bookwyrm. (7) Ash goes onto Xino for self-pres. And that's about where we are. Where I'm at: I went digging to try to see if I could make the Xino thing make more sense to me. Spoiler alert: massive failure, and it's maybe half hour to rollover. I don't particularly feel Ash, I don't really know what to make of Xino. I'm going to take a break and come back to this. Oh, and slight V points for Illwei. God, how many times did I get ninjaed...]

[OOC: Bookwyrm is a count of 1, from me.] [OOC: I point you to Wyrm's complaint to Orlok the other day: Would find a way to RP post this but I just took painkillers (as usual, happy to bluetext if necessary) and am ready to go sleep so this is not going to happen. Using two very crude measures because I CBA to do it properly. Not Voting Today: -Stick [natural opening in PM closer to AG8, plus more engaged than in LG89] -Shadow [think that move is a bit risky for E!Shadow] -Cin [can't see E!Cin doubling down or being advised to double down] -Alv [not sorry, don't play with this guy enough] -Devo [a bit doubtful but I think I'm beginning to ID E!Devo after a while, and my gut just feels it's V!Devo.] -TUN [feels like a mode shift from their Elim play, paralleling the QF and the LG.] Ok With Voting Today: -JNV [want to say they feel different from E mode, but honestly I'd have said that in LG89 too. Just watch and read posts closely.] -Illwei [Think the sky will fall before I read her right but will keep trying] -Conq [Have never seen Conq's E meta, but just do not feel one way or another on Conq] -Silvereye [Had been writing a post on Silvereye before Silvereye ninjaed me. Response to Danex joining on Mat is more what I expect from new players, cf. Bookwyrm] -Bookwyrm [Mentioned my thoughts, Stick, you, Mat raise good points, result is a wash for me.] -Danex [Don't want to apathy clear, and E!Danex can play rando.] -Xino [Kind of agree, kind of disagree. Xino's playstyle is all over the place, and I can cite games where E!Xino was also fairly engaged (BT2) and games where E!Xino wasn't engaged/low engagement (LG89, that conversion MR) so I feel like it's a wash.] -Ash [Don't feel one way or another rn.] -Mat [Am not sure where I stand on Mat but also DK if Mat is too busy. Need to compare with Archer's MR.] -Turtle [Hasn't shown] -Shining [No real playstyle difference, understand Stick's concern, so result is a wash. Sorta E!Shadow vibes too.] -Wiz [Don't see Mat's case on Wiz, but don't really feel positive about Wiz either, just a wash. Have IDed E!Wiz before but that involved a faction game so not sure how much that applies.] Of all live trains, I see: <TUN, Cinnamon, Bookwyrm, Ash, Mat, Wiz, Stick, Xino, Turtle.> Stick, TUN, and Cinnamon are non-starters for me for today, I don't mind Turtle but recognise it's a bit of a rubbish train at the moment because Turtle hasn't shown, meaning it's more a pragmatic compromise. Arguably you could say it'll try to force Turtle's teammates out of hiding to defend Turtle but I just feel this is not going to give much grist for discussion so IDK if it really is a good train. Could say I am :| about Wiz for that, since it's a very safe space to stash his vote but I don't really know it's worth reigniting the poke vote debate for. I don't like it as a move but I don't think it's something that is particularly outside of Wiz's player profile to do. @Matrim's Dice, thoughts on that, since you're the resident Wiz watcher? Bookwyrm will be me agreeing to stand where I feel and to trade off being able to affect the lynch for this, though admittedly I am already making that trade-off by going to bed at a sane hour. Part of me feels that it feels quite low temperature so far, which might indicate Elims don't consider vote dilution a threat/no stable votes on an Elim. And Stick just pulled off TUN because this has been open in post editor forever. Joy to the world. And urgh Ash just moved onto Bookwyrm. FFS. Staying put it is then, goodnight.]

'Course, I figured, it was definitely weird to be suspicious of multiple people, or to change your suspicions based on evidence, or the state of your thoughts. Can't ask for anything more suspicious than trying to see if you could provoke some response, neither. No, sir, this is Tyrian Falls. Only a fool would do that. No doubt we'd find the Spiked by jabbing our fingers at the first person we saw, and keeping 'em firmly there. Absolutely no question about it, at all. Needed more of that aquavit. Wasn't sure how I was gonna last the day.