Kasimir

But also, eh, cards on the table. I was working off an E!you, E!Archer or at least quiet E!Archer theory. Archer's continued unwillingness to vote you in an actually lethal or near lethal way caught my attention. As I pointed out earlier, this is telling because his current working theory requires E!you, E!Dannex. So I was offering him a juicy Mat train and prodding to see if he'd bite. The irony is that I'd expect Archer to be fine with going for you in an E/V scenario but the precedence here is more: Mat Archer I am okay with a Devo train as well. Final decision later.

Yeah, that was MR50 I've highlighted where the alibi pool could potentially still have put in the kill, yes, but am disturbed that there's less engagement on reads in the pool. Mech and reads are supposed to work together. Frankly, I feel as though my V read of you is powerfully effort based and that's why the sorta's there—I respect you as an Elim more than to be okay with a pure effort clear.

M.R.5.0. I'm working off action claims at the moment. If we look at roleclaims, AFAIK the only double role is Son of Feanor, but the question I suppose is, do we really want to risk Melkor just lying about his double role at this stage? (This is also why I want to look at verified alibis/actions instead, really.) One way or another, the pool of people we have public and verifiable action claims of any sort are <Symph, JNV, Danex, Archer, Devo.> Danex roleblocked Devo, if this adds to another layer of the mess. If you think neither Danex nor I received a shield from Araris, and that Devo didn't have a Helm or wasn't Shielded, then everyone in that pool has at least some alibi when it comes to putting in the C2 kill. <TUN, Mat, me, Shining> are all people who took no role actions, for various reasons. It doesn't mean that the first pool is cleared, but that if I'm willing to accept the alibis, then I pretty much have to look here and go by reads. My problem is I V!read Shining, /shrug TUN, and sorta V!read Mat which means I'm stuck as far as reads go because I don't seem to have a clear negative read to pursue. I'm fine with lynching among my /shrugs and sortas but that is not gameplay I am very satisfied with, Suppose we do want to include role reasoning - suppose for the moment roles can't be doubled because I don't think there is a point looking at roles without this supposition. (FYI Mat, lone Sailor does seem plausible). The issue is that everyone left by nature is still going to be the Melkor pool, more or less, only that we'd add Devo back. @The Unknown Novel What are your current reads? Edited to add: It is. But also, two man team. I feel like any imprint we see would be smaller than normal.

Eh, actually I'll clarify this bit because why not, doesn't really matter - I started with a Jewel, so players can definitely start with items. Have not really used it because I haven't felt like slinging the Jewel at anyone, and I now have better things to do with my item action than bribe people. Mostly.

Yes, people can, AFAIK. You know my policy on outing people who don't want to out themselves though, so I will just say I'm aware of multiple cases. Imagine how thrilled I am that Araris died before I could get a PM >> I made the shield claim at 1138hrs my time - JNV PMed me about making it at 1141hrs. It's worth noting that JNV asked me in a PM if I wanted a shield at 0809hrs (rollover takes place at 1000hrs for me.) I think my issue is even if JNV retroactively claimed it, the point of bringing it to the thread is to make sure there is no other V!Smith claiming the Shield. So either it came from Araris (whether through Heiring or randomly, now that Symph has claimed to have made Danex a shield) or it came from someone else, in which case we're back to making sense of whodunnit based off known and corroborated actions. Okay, this makes sense to me. It's a bit curious to me that this sort of nudges around the fact that taking the obvious vote because it still has to be done is very much a part of Araris's own meta, but I can see where this makes sense from a 'is he going after obvious low-hanging fruit' sort of angle. I still raise an eyebrow at the activity point but it's less a 'you're Evil' kind of eyebrow raise and more 'my brother in Eru, V!Araris has had low activity games before' kind of deal (hi early AG8!), so it's an outlier but IDK if it's one that'd trip my flag. Friendly reminder I leaned Village enough to back off of him after his response to pressure, so my Araris read powers are still intact :D. (I will not be held responsible the next game I back off of him and he's actually Evil, shh.) Question for you, Mat. Are you willing to lynch Danex this cycle? Sorry - missed the edit the first time around. So I don't disagree with this possibility, but for this to work, he'd more or less have to have converted Mat by your stipulation. (Or made an insanely lucky guess about Mat and Araris having no PM - which do you think is more likely?) This also means that Mat had to have put in the kill C2, which is possible. What will you do if Danex flips Village? For that matter, your E!Danex world seems to hinge on E!Mat because you generally rely on Mat being converted. If so, why not push Mat prior to Danex? Edited to add: ACK SORRY FOR THE DOUBLE I WAS TIRED AND THOUGHT THERE WAS ANOTHER POST I WILL CHANGE IT IF NECESSARY AAAAAAAAAAAA

Publicly claimed Sons of Feanor at the moment are JNV and Devo.

Okay, seriously, if I missed it, what was it? Because I re-read C2, and then reluctantly went over C1 again, but the main post that stood out to me was first your statement that Araris was more quiet than he usually was (Araris noted he was busy and offered a post with some thoughts) and your subsequent post with the crack theory. You later stated you most wanted Araris to die of basically everyone else, but that read basically as a reasons-preference based on what you initially offered. Given my current low SAN, it is likely I missed it if there's another reason there, and honestly other than the ??? Araris moment, I am getting Village off your posts so I'd prefer not to ML you if it can be reasonably avoided >> Edited to add: @SymphonianBookworm - If you'd take a strategic suggestion - you might want to consider using your Fell Sword. You have one item action and one role action each cycle, and everytime you roleblock a player, you confirm they didn't put in a kill that cycle. If you're making items, use your best judgement, but it probably would be good if there were a couple more Fell Swords floating around. If you're Village, it is very likely that Melkor is aiming to get us to ML you, so being able to help informationally would be a good way to screw Melkor over Did you use the Sword C1? @JNV - Defer to your tactical decisions on item creation and gifting, agreed that Shields are a wise choice, but likely situational. Do not know if Sword is worth the risk for a once-a-game action block and otherwise item block. You claimed to have made a Shield C1. Did you use it C2? If not, you may want to consider using it - again, one item action and one role action means that the item action is free anyway, so may as well go for it. Generally, anyone with an item that's not one-use, consider using it Keep in mind that Shields do also protect from roleblocks and item theft via knives, so a judgement call has to be made there. @Archer - Mind dropping me a PM? There's a rule interaction IDK if you know about, but that while it is something anyone can work out, I'd rather not make public if I don't have to. - I've talked to Fifth about some rules and there's one situation in which the roleblock claim on Devo doesn't pan out - and it does shift the calculus a bit. Basically, this is the world where Devo had a Helm or was guarded with a Shield. In that world, the roleblocker isn't told the roleblock failed, but it does fail. I take the upshot of that to mean that if you think Devo had a Helm or was guarded (and reasonably I think, if the Elims had a player with a Helm, that would be the reasonable player to make the kill), then the idea Devo didn't take an action fails. In which case, we return to a <Devo, Mat, TUN, Shining> pool.

FYI that AFAIK, when I demarcated them as no real claims, I did include whatever I know of any action claims they may or may not have shared. General PSA to everyone to use mech reasoning with reads because the whole point of Part B is that there are loopholes depending on how kind RNGesus is feeling - so while mech reasoning can help a little, it can't seal the deal. I would agree with this but as a point of caution, if you or I received a Shield from Araris's death by pure accident, then all of that goes out the window and there are eight possible teams (fewer in your case if you rule yourself out.) y tho Orlok would kill me if I never point out that effort clearing is problematic. But I also admit E!Kas would have no patience because I burned too many hours of my life trying to make this make sense. Caution that there might be loopholes I miss, in which case, good to hear if anyone has noticed them. But I think the key is to actively go re-read posts. My struggle is that Mat actually kinda reads Village to me. But I don't understand the Araris vote/reasoning for Araris. Between TUN and Shining, if forced, I would probably be more sold on V!Shining, and the emotion/vibe behind C2 JNV reads genuine Village. But E!JNV scammed me hard before in a LG over the same thing so I do not know if I trust me on it. Edited to add: Doesn't count for much, but Danex's response came within a minute of my query. Feels a bit too fast for it to be conveyed by doc, so he's definitely out of the running in my books for C2 killer, either way.

Okay. So I don't think it is as useful to focus on roles due to the prevalence of potential double roles, and we don't want Melkor to be the exception that proves the rule. Fine. I suggested earlier that we should look at actions instead - the key helpful rule here is actions economy-based. Players get one role action and one item action per cycle, that's it. I'm not interested in item actions so much as role actions, because I think this is helpful for us. We know there was a Corrupted kill C2. Let's forget about Melkor for a second. Melkor doesn't matter. (MELKOR! *angry growl with fists clenched*.) What matters is that someone had to have put in the kill, and that someone had to spend a role action on it. And that player is findable. Fair warning that the following section is going to be mech reasoning heavy, but I am better at mech than reads so this is where I will start. I will do vote reasoning when I get back from work. PART A: What is the data? Part B: Who's the Liar Here? Part C: tldr; If you don't think that one of the Evil players is in <TUN, Shining, Mat>, then you are left with these potential teams: 1. Archer-Symph 2. Archer-JNV 3. Symph-Devo 4. Symph-Danex 5. Symph-JNV 6. Devo-Danex 7. Devo-JNV 8. Danex-JNV There are a few conclusions: A. It is very unlikely that Archer is the C2 killer. It is just bloody difficult to account for Archer putting in the kill in light of the fact we have to account for whoever then put in the votejack order. (Thank you, Archer, if you're Village!) B. There are eight potential teams only if you think that Danex or I may have inherited a Shield from Araris. If you think it is fairly unlikely we may have inherited a Shield, then the number of potential teams collapses to: 1. Devo-Danex 2. Symph-Danex Any team with Symph or JNV in it is really only viable if we assume/stipulate that Danex or I inherited/received a Shield from Araris. I don't know how likely that is, but I lean unlikely. C. Keep in mind that actions are not infallible - roleblocks can be redirected by the use of a gemstone. But if so, then I'd suggest that @SymphonianBookworm keep making items alongside using your Fell Sword to roleblock people - this way, you have some way of telling if you were redirected because someone used a gemstone on you. Otherwise, it's possible to get the wrong results and not be told. I can confirm the roleblock on Devo was not redirected, though. Part D: Thoughts rn Of the Mat, TUN, Shining triad, I am struggling to get a read of any particular one. But I also want to look at voting records (even if I've no time to do progression analysis, I'll at least look at some votes.) End C2, IMO, is fairly low temperature compared to end C1. Borrowing Dannex's votecount: This is absurdly low temperature, but this makes sense as the vote was so diluted that it didn't have much chance of hitting Melkor's teammate and Melkor was never going to be threatened by it. An hour and fifteen minutes to rollover, Danex and Conq call for consolidation. Granted, I don't expect the Elims to make a big fuss, given there are at most two of them, but the noisiest votehopper near the end was Archer and there was basically no reaction! I'm willing to consider Archer as being a bit overprotective of Devo (and his Araris vote as being protective of Devo), but an Archer-Devo team doesn't make sense due to actions economy. So that's not a line of analysis that's worth looking at. The first player to break the stalemate is Shining: Which puts the Devo train in the lead. Shortly after, Danex ties this off with a vote on Araris, which Conq joins at the very same time: We now know that Conq and Araris were Village - this turned it into a lead train on a Villager, with the Devo train secondary. Likely explains the low reaction. I don't take the Devo train to be alignment indicative. Not very helpful But the re-read did make some things stand out: I get a fairly genuine vibe off JNV's paranoia/confusion "whaaaat do I do in a conversion game", but recognise that E!JNV is capable of doing that. Even so, lean Village on JNV. Open to different reads/being convinced otherwise. I am tempted to lean V on Shining due to Shining's reads seeming a bit weird to me in a 'IDGAF what anyone else thinks these are my reads fullstop' kind of way, but I am curious about Shining joining me on Devo. Shining missing the Finwe claim ironically makes me feel a bit better - I think Team Melkor would probably have picked up on it, and Shining just going 'maybe lean E' with no real input on that feels like something an Elim would be more conscious of. Did Mat legit sign on to a CC lynch of Araris >> The other alternative is that his vote kind of stayed there on the basis of a Dannex-Melkor!Araris team despite Devo pointing out that you could just...get them both to spy on PMs. Though tbf, role confirmation =/= actions economy stuff, but it was hinged on a distro concern so there's that. I genuinely do not know what to think of TUN. Feel E!TUN is more conciliatory but it wouldn't be the first time a player changed playstyle. On re-read, I once again lean Village on Devo - there's something more carefree about Devo's C2 engagement with the thread and the way she interjects that vibes more with her Village play. I fully expect to change my mind (and my read) for at least the next seventy times. I agree with Devo that Danex or JNV getting converted feels like a longshot due to uncertainty about them getting exed. Because conversion comes before the exe on OoA, converting someone can be a real problem - they'd convert in time to die. We know that Conq, who was vehemently behind the save Danex movement, was Village, so I don't see it being Melkor motivated. With the vote uncertainty and thread activity, the idea that Melkor would be fine with converting Danex or JNV seems unlikely (doesn't help if they are Melkor, of course.) The point of this is that I do think that Danex felt like he was trying to solve the game; I guess one could wonder about whether he was trying to get Feanor killed (why else is Feanor not dead?) but that path is an IKYK - and I'm not sure that Danex is taking the best road for actual!Melkor there (arguing that Feanor is Melkor is kind of insane given real Feanor hasn't counterclaimed.) end!C2 and early C3 Archer leave me feeling very torn. End C2 Archer felt like he was engaging more in performative uncertainty than actual uncertainty, given he was swapping his votes very quickly in a short period of time on players who basically wouldn't have been endangered anyway (two votes with the lead train being three votes.) At the same time, I like the strategy/thought. I still have no idea how his E!Danex theory was meant to work, or his Araris suspicions. So /shrug from me, but acknowledged that it's very hard to make Archer work with an Evil team, so the sensible thing to do is to focus on other players for now. That's it from me for now, my brain is circling the drain .__. FYI that I can only be irregularly on at EoD due to wonderful timezones.

What reasons?

How is this supposed to work?

Sadly correct, and I corroborate this. I received a shield this cycle as well. I am currently backreading to see if this could have come from Conq as Conq was urging heiring, and this could have bearing on actions economy. I promise to do vote analysis in a bit Edited to add: Conq claimed no starting items. I am currently leaning to the view the two shields were created by a Smith and by Feanor - this doesn't say anything about their alignment, but it confirms that said players cannot have put in a kill last cycle.

Possible, but requires Archer to have been lucky enough to have converted an Orator C1 because for Orator!Mat and Archer to be in cahoots C2, Archer has to be Melkor. In Orator!Mat world, the vote manip still means that he cannot have converted anyone. So Archer has had to have fakeclaimed Orator as Melkor and been lucky. (Orator!Melkor!Archer also has the actions economy problem.) Unlikely for Araris to have used a gemstone. Araris mentioned he would not be around EoC, which is why he never defended himself. This means we know Symph took an action C2, as corroborated by you, and if Conq didn't Heir you, then it basically either came from Symph or JNV. So we have some reason to think Symph didn't kill that cycle. I guess it doesn't rule out a world in which Melkor converts Symph C2 and kills C2, but at least that's what we can say on the basis of actions economy. In total, what is the number/count of discrete messages in the PM? (Each post by a player in that thread counts as one message.)

Here's the raw votecount: This is the votecount we received: Nothing especially unusual - straightforwardly, someone got votejacked onto Araris to kill Araris, which incidentally means that Archer cannot be Melkor, though he could be a Convert. Here's why: C1: Votejack happened. Suppose Orator!Melkor - there's still only one role action, so Archer could not have votejacked and converted. C2: Votejack happened. Suppose Orator!Melkor - Archer could not have votejacked and killed. Both are role actions. This leaves open a world in which: Melkor converts Archer C1, and then Melkor proceeds to kill C2, while Archer votejacks. But it's safe to say that Archer cannot be Melkor. (Someone tell me if there is a hole in this line of reasoning.) @Matrim's Dice Rather than the role, I suggest then that we look at actions that are or are not corroborated. Killing and conversion are both role actions, so if roles are used provably during a cycle where a Melkor kill (or convert I guess) takes place, we can whittle down a suspect pool from there. Edited to add: To be clear, what I had in mind was 'get your suspect pool, use corroborated actions to remove people from it.' Reasoning first, then actions economy.

This is why I kept mentioning I hesitate to make a committed/strong read of Devo off playstyle. I've GMed Evil Devo (well, played with once I think) enough to know that Devo is aware of her Elim playstyle and deliberately changes it to break patterns. TJ's Reckoner's game - she basically realised she seldom RPs as Evil (or something of that sort? Do not recall but it's in her doc) and actively set out to change it. I remember a comment to that effect in our Elim doc as well in Elan's MR. She does it both as a Villager and when Evil so while I'd still use playstyle as a starting point, I'm concerned about being too set on it. Edit: WAIT. @Archer, she knifed you? Then how did your vote manip happen? What the hell? Devo claimed no knife. This is sus.

@Matrim's Dice I'm happy to be voted on for that Genuinely think Finwe is just there to kill soak and die. Most of my votes this cycle were essentially meant to elicit more info, not necessarily to kill, but this would take us far afield again. Long story short there are some reasons I can't go into in thread and will probably bring with me to my grave, but I will also say I know of a solo Son of Feanor (on the Conq issue), so there's an incompatibility there, and that's what I mean by oddity. JNV's second Son claim also makes sense, and jives with JNV's attitude I do feel that C1 Devo was more aggressive than typical Evil Devo - I think trying to push a significant train with a case as opinionated as Devo's case on Archer was is not really a good thing for Melkor because it is attention-grabbing, especially if done at the last minute. One could fairly argue that Archer was unlikely to be in serious danger late last cycle when Devo pushed that train so late, so IDK. That, actively PMing (apparently inclusive of Archer) and requesting shields and thus seemingly trying to set herself up as a point of contact, don't seem to be the sort of attention an Elim seeks. The item limit is not great for Melkor, and Melkor would likely prefer Helms. Her reasoning for asking for shields is okay, if a bit flaky (only Feanor or Smiths can make Shields, true), but at the same time, how is it really supposed to ID a Smith/Feanor short of them willingly claiming to you, why should they do so, and if they realistically might not, why is this Village? So I leaned Village but also ??? What's making me rethink is actually C2 Devo, who is now returning to being a more measured/cautious commenter, and I'm curious about what's motivating that change in playstyle. Edited to add: Posting this because if I get NKed, I want to have done this meme first: Edited to add 2: @Archer Why is a Devo vote a bad idea? If you have a good reason, I'm happy to be persuaded off, though Eru knows who the hell I'll go to...

Ignoring the role doubling issue: These are the people we have claims from: Danex (Messenger) - Corroborated by Mat, Araris Araris (Messenger) - Corroborated by Danex Conq (Noble) - Corroborated by Kas, mech Shining (Noble) - Corroborated by JNV, mech Archer (Orator) - Corroborated by mech Kas (Finwe) - No corroboration but also PM sads, no sustained counterclaim Symph (Feanor) - No corroboration, but no counterclaim Wiz (Galadriel) - Confirmed by Mandos Who are we left with? <Mat, TUN, Devo, JNV> What does this say of the distro so far? Doubled Messengers, likely for PM security, I am not terribly surprised by the doubled Nobles and the Orator as I expect that we need some vote resilience due to the Silmarils potentially creating an insanely high vote majority. I do wonder if it is possible Fingolfin doesn't exist, and it's true the game wouldn't suffer too hard from losing Fingolfin since Fingolfin loses efficacy the moment Melkor successfully converts. Jewel bribes can nullify Silmarils, and we have three Trinket maker roles. Are they all represented? No idea. But potentially one more Smith for extra padding in case of a ML or a Kinslaying bloodbath where the Sons go stab-happy? Nothing particularly much at the moment here. Bah what am I even doing >> Araris, Devo - not going off the role doubling reasoning, but I did like Araris's last post, and my votes for this cycle have generally been in the pool of people I don't feel positively on. Edited to add: @SymphonianBookworm - TBH, if you think Conq is Village, you could make Conq a Fell Sword instead of making @dannnnnnex a shield. A shield only has a 40% chance of protecting from the Corrupted kill, and only Feanor can make a Fell Sword, so that is just as good evidence. Though I will say I have higher Village credences in Danex next to Conq, but that's my own judgement, and you should use yours.

Bro. Sons of Feanor don't get a doc until: 1. I die 2. One of them gets a Silmaril

It's because I started to feel very strongly that it was just better to get the Silmarils out and see what the extent of the Sons are, and to check Conq, yeah, though giving Conq a Fell Sword would do the same thing. My C1 approach was to try to blend in and keep the Silmarils locked for as long as I can since Finwe also can't be protected, but I'm skewing heavily towards forcing Melkor to kill me and unlocking the Silmarils now. If it's possible to get one Silmaril into the hands of a Son of Finwe, we should get a sense of how broadly they are distributed. (Also because that's a number of one shot kills floating around.) My theory is that they're a popular secondary role, but the only way to know is to see how big that anon doc is. I can confirm this as it hasn't changed I explained why in my post - Finwe is a possible claim from Melkor but why counterclaim Finwe falsely? I'm divided because I obviously know that it is a false counterclaim, but then take it one step further and suppose you're Melkor: you claimed Finwe falsely. Suppose further you win the thunderdome, which is absolutely possible. Good job, you waste a Village lynch doing the work you want it to do (hi Silmarils!), but you expose yourself and die the next cycle. You could just NK Finwe since Finwe can't be protected. You basically get yourself killed making an unnecessary counterclaim, when Finwe isn't even a power role. So I reflex voted but then thought through it and while it's hinky, I can't see the fakeclaim itself making sense from Melkor's perspective. And if I don't think that fakeclaim makes sense for Melkor...then what the blazes is my vote doing there? The PM I wanted but could not have @Archer - If you want a PM you'll have to make one yourself, I'm not allowed to even if I'd want one, GM's orders >> This is a fair point. @dannnnnnex - PMed @Fifth Scholar, he confirmed it's flavour. I'm still catching up. Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice - Hesitated to say this as I think Conq's claim makes sense, but he's also AFAIK the only known double. That's an oddity, and so I really wanted that made sense of.

Current State of Kas's Thoughts: I don't feel especially strongly about TUN for reasons outlined, which as TUN lampshaded, is probably due to being thrown by how he's playing. I do think Finwe is a potential Melkor fakeclaim, due to the incentive for the Village not to waste a lynch on Finwe, and to try to get Melkor to kill Finwe for them so that everyone can get Shiny Special Jewels(TM). (Thanks guys, I feel loved >>) I don't know if counterclaiming Finwe makes sense as a play here, so /shrug, but slight sus anyway. I do think E!TUN tends to fold faster, but players will change playstyle over time, so the hell I know. If Araris and Mat can confirm they don't have a PM, I lean Village on Danex for now, with the reservation that Melkor could also be a Messenger. Simply put, these are my considerations: A. I think that Danex was an unlikely candidate for conversion (potentially JNV as well) given the EoD volatility surrounding Danex, B. I also think there is a prima facie claim that Danex really is a Messenger. If this is true, we have the following ways that Danex could be right about the lack of an Araris-Mat PM and still be Melkor: i) Danex is both Melkor and a Messenger - possible, but in my view, unlikely; it is true though that a dual Messenger-Melkor Melkor might have deemed the ability to survive and be softcleared as a Messenger to be more important than converting or killing, ii) Danex is Melkor and converted a Messenger (but this would require him to be lucky enough to have converted a Messenger, and likely partially involves (iii), and iii) Danex made a lucky guess, knowing that Araris was unlikely to have a PM with anyone. On the whole, I am a bit more convinced of Messenger!NotMelkor!Danex, and lean towards Danex not having been converted due to volatility, which for now, entails V!Messenger!Danex I am more inclined to think Conq is Village, though he might very well have been converted. I think the evidence that Conq at least has a Noble's role is fairly strong - the only world in which Conq isn't a Noble is one in which I am a lying Convert, but fortunately for my sanity, Fifth and RNGesus have allowed me to hold my head high in the Halls of Mandos in the knowledge that I did not scorn the cause of the Valar >> Dramatics aside, I think it is less likely for Melkor to also be a Noble, due to the amount of vote resistance it gives him. I also give Conq Village points for pointing out that he has a dual role, as I think that Melkor would have an incentive to encourage the thought that Melkor only has one role - he just has to pose as his secondary role, especially if it is confirmable, or claim Smith family, and allow the Village a few MLs before the error was realised. (Note that if the secondary role is not provable, then no real credit to Conq for that one.) I can't speak to whether Conq may or may not have been converted, though. Lean tentatively Village on Devo for playstyle reasons, appreciate Devo's catch that Melkor cannot make Shields, no particularly strong feelings otherwise as I am aware that Devo is a very flexible player where playstyle is concerned. ??? on JNV and Shining; if JNV is truthful, then Shining is a Noble, and unlikely to be Melkor (cf. my thoughts on vote resistance.) It's worth noting there is a world in which one of them is Melkor with a Jewel, and the other a Convert, but eh. If I'm wrong and Melkor is also a Noble, then that's obviously another Melkor world. I don't give JNV as much credit as I do Conq for the point on the dual roles, and I think the distinction to me is a functional one. Conq's claim potentially puts him back in the Melkor suspect pool for the short term, since the Son of Feanor claim can't currently/so nearly be proven, so I would give some credit for it, while JNV would've been in the pool anyway, and therefore re-widening it doesn't of necessity feel as helpful as it can threaten paralysis. I don't know if my differing responses is reasonable though, so I'll need to think about that. No idea what to think about Shining's late vote volatility either. Archer is Archer. In the absence of an Orator counterclaim, yeah, but being an Orator may not be incompatible with being Melkor, there's the more unlikely world in which he converted an Orator, but also I will never not be somewhat wary of Archer all the same. Don't disagree with his tactics, no strong feelings. (Incidentally, @Archer, what is the PM that Devo to make a late push on you?) No particular strong feelings on Mat at this juncture, similar for Araris. Symph is...well. More on Symph in a while. So, I don't disagree with Danex's scrutiny on Symph. My main issue with the 'Symph is Melkor' hypothesis is, quite simply, that there is no Feanor counterclaim. (And if there is a counterclaim, then why didn't it come last cycle? Feanor is a good candidate for Melkor to fakeclaim due to item creation abilities, so actual V!Feanor should've called Symph out. I do think it is unlikely we have a Silmarillion game without Feanor, and there is the very slight chance Fifth was trolly and Melkor is both Melkor and Feanor but I don't ascribe very high likelihood to that.) Despite that, I do want an answer as to Symph's not creating the item after all (especially since it was to be a shield, and Melkor alone cannot make shields. Moreover, Symph did not volunteer to make a shield, and was resistant to the idea of the shield, and ended up offering to make something else instead - so I'd like to hear more from Symph on the whole issue.) I also agree Feanor is a likely convert or kill candidate, so there is that as well. I'm basically very torn between whether Symph is just an erratic new player or Evil. At this juncture, I'm leaning to Araris or Symph. Symph currently has a vote, but again, I'd just like some clarity on what's going on.

Yeah, it's why I'm leaving that possibility open. Noble is less likely, but the rest are all possible, Feanor is sadism, and Fingolfin is basically a question of how much Fifth wants us to deal with Seeker shenanigans in different form all over again. I can assure you Finwe is very aware of that and also very sad about it But let's be real, everyone wants Finwe dead for the shiny Special Jewels (TM) so that the family drama can begin. Fakeclaiming Finwe is bold for Melkor, but Melkor does have an incentive to fakeclaim, as Village might deem it better to let Finwe die to Melkor for the Silmarils. Doubt it will last long though, so that might be a point in your favour. It's become common practice enough that people forget and it depends on the GM, but given the GM-IM pair for this game, I decided to do it the right way, but not without a bit of whining about having to do a fresh post to change my vote

TUN. Nowadays, we tend to edit votes in anyway, and then just @ the GM. This is technically not allowed and El gets grumpy everytime this happens. - My current theory is that if any roles are doubled, it's 'Sons of Feanor' as they are essentially a micro-faction and glorified PM group that can kill once if given a Fell Sword and that's it. In that sense, it reminds me of Fifth's Synod mechanic in the Terris LG we GMed. I do lean lightly against Melkor having the Noble role if there is a double - I think that this gives Melkor a bit too much vote survivability, given Melkor also has perma-Cunning. It is possible that the C1 exe survivability got nuked because Melkor might also actually be a Sailor, though quite honestly if I were Melkor and facing an exe, I might fakeclaim Sailor anyway. Smith is not a portfolio that Melkor has reason to have, and fakeclaiming Smith can hurt Melkor. This leaves us with possible duplicates of Orator, Messenger, or as per my theory, Son of Feanor. Fingolfin isn't impossible if Fifth really, really hates us, same with Feanor.

Right, I forgot, no editing votes in a post even though we live dangerously these days. @Fifth Scholar: JNV, Kas If you would like a PM, I suggest you send me one because I have been living in terrible solitary deprivation and I am beginning to sympathise with Melkor's sentence of solitary imprisonment (MELKOR! *clenches fists angrily*)

Mostly I see something that doesn't ping right and then apply pressure to see what comes out, rather than wanting you to say something, so this works Fine, Mat JNV. I'm conflicted about this - I think JNV is the sort of player attentive to detail enough to ask about the possibility of dual roles, but this is also something that is very much not a default setting in SE, and seldom-asked. I do also think that Melkor might very well benefit from/want to buy more time with the ambiguity of whether we can really narrow down on a Melkor suspect pool or not. I do need to look at vote progression/shifts eventually. FWIW I do think Melkor will obviously not claim Melkor - Melkor will claim a non-provable role or a provable one like Smith (which Devo has forestalled) so either way, we will be going in the approximately right direction anyway. Edited to add: Nevermind, then. Hmm. JNV Kas

This was why it felt opportunistic: because there was no progression I could see. Because you were basically: "gut village but paranoia" (reasonable), waited for Danex to say something, then suddenly "actually I feel gut eh." That's as compatible with rethinking (good) as it is with being opportunistic and waiting to jump in after someone else had said it (bad.) My point about sleeping isn't about you not being able to reconsider when I'm sleeping, it's the fact that because I was sleeping I was not putting out new content. So if there is no new content, where does this come from? Where is the inciting difference as far as you have shown other than someone saying they had an eh feeling about me, and you suddenly deciding you did as well? Your point about easier routes for E!you than pushing V!me is precisely why I wanted to pressure you about this, FWIW. Because I do think this is why the more strategic way is to let another player do it, and which is why I don't particularly care about everyone else not you in this context I have absolutely no issue about Danex gut reading me negatively, I just did not like seeing a switch without a sense of what is behind it, so of course I have to push you about it :eyes: RIP, thanks. I'm going to lean single role unless proven otherwise. It's true of Danex's claim, Archer's claim, Bookworm's claim, and certainly as far as I can tell, of my own GM PM. Double role is very rare and the last time this happened was in Tani's QF at the start of this year, which I wouldn't take to be standard. I can see Fifth PAFOing because he doesn't want to put Melkor at a disadvantage by confirming there can only be one role. Given we should be able to narrow down on Melkor with reasonable speed, I am fine narrowing the pool, keeping in mind this assumption can be fallible, and then revising if we have reason to believe this doesn't make sense. Of the current Melkor pool: Strictly speaking: <TUN, Araris, Mat, JNV, Danex, Devo, Bookworm, Archer, Kas.> Removed Conq and Shining for mechanical reasons - likely Nobles. I leave myself inside as a courtesy but obviously won't be regarding myself as a serious starter. I lean very lightly Village on Devo, and I think JNV makes a good point that if there is no counterclaim, then the Orator move basically has to be Archer's one way or another. Bookworm's Feanor claim has not been contested. I guess I'll leave Devo in there for the moment. But @dannnnnnex, any way of confirming you retrieved my message and Devo's? If we clear Danex as well, we're left with: <TUN, Araris, Mat, JNV, Devo, Kas> Of this pool, I'm provisionally leaning more to TUN and Araris, no real read on JNV, and my vote won't kill you anytime soon Mat There shouldn't be too much of a teammate link in this case. I really have the MR53 case powerfully in mind this game since the dynamic was very largely similar, and as Melkor is still a bit fragile, I judge that there's the usual "where do you want to appear in the batch of 'people prosecuting a bad lynch' problem. It won't be definitive, it's just got to be conditional profiling, adjust as you go, and so on.