Kasimir

Only one Melkor conversion, the fact that the game ended means it was Shining, unlikely TUN would lie about his role in this context as a Villager, fits with his C4 immediate reaction, and no one was going to shield TUN.

We did. I'm Finwe, TUN's apparently a Village Sailor. So this should be a Village win. I think I was sending about twenty different variants of 'Shield Devo' 'No, use Jewel on Shining' this cycle, but without TUN, we didn't have enough of a vote margin to risk it. Seems like it was fortuitous too.

So apparently I'm damned to rule forever as the immortal High King of the Noldor >> Well, duty is duty I suppose >>

@Fifth Scholar 1. Can I just vote for everyone now. 2. Can I abdicate after this game. I'm a republican now .__. I can't do this king business anymore it's too stressful .___.

He could, that's why I'm factoring it out. True - I'm guessing, but the main reason I postulate Mat makes two trinkets in C3 is because: If I put in a trinket order in C3, the first time I can use the trinket is in C4. The timing is otherwise not right. So if we assume Melkor did not start with a Knife (e.g. we assume Melkor started with a Helm), then it basically has to be a C3 thing. But Symph's actions in C3 are backed by Mat, and we know Mat is Melkor. In an E/E world, Mat lies and they do whatever. In a V/E world, Mat has to tell the truth. But I am honestly not sure about the Melkor starting with a Helm thing. It's an assumption on both sides, but if Melkor doesn't, then Symph is Village. That's a big deal. Works for me. Edited to add: @Shining Silhouette, TUN claimed to have stabbed Mat C3 and C4. It failed both times, meaning Mat had protection by then. Edited to add 2: @Devotary of Spontaneity So, uh, where'd you get that gemstone from?

I agree about the terrifying E!Symph world, and the Sacred Coin tells me to lynch Symph and defend you. I am not fully trusting of the Sacred Coin, but I don't believe the cycle is ended until it is ended. So let's explore this again. How do you see this working with the actions? C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex C3 - ???, Symph claims she made a Fell Sword for Mat. C4 - ??? Suppose: C3, Mat kills, Symph makes a Helm for Mat? Item crafting precedes Knife theft, so Symph could very well have protected Mat in that very same cycle. C4, A knife was used on me. So either they start with a knife, or one of them makes it. Maybe: C1 - Mat converts Symph, Symph makes herself a Fell Sword C2 - Mat kills, Symph makes a Shield for Dannex C3 - ???, Symph makes a Trinket and RNGs a knife C4 - ??? But that C3 is weirder. If they're going for a knife, you'd think they'd prefer Mat's double trinket action. So okay: C3 - Mat makes two Trinkets, Symph kills C4 - ??? If I were Mat, I make another two Trinkets, or something useful for my teammate anyway and let them decide what to throw away, and let my teammate kill. So instead of a Fell Sword, Symph kills. But then, it's Symph, so the Fell Sword is more useful...??? How does E!TUN work? Thoughts, @Devotary of Spontaneity? Edited to add: Okay, but this still requires Symph to decide to stab TUN and that's just a bad choice for the Elim team. Better to have TUN stay alive and suck up Village indecision, especially since Mat was going to run with the Shield reasoning, and the FUD tactics. I don't buy this. Edited to add 2: @Shining Silhouette FWIW, the strongest Village case I can see in your favour, which would nudge me to E!TUN instead, would be the timing of your last post. That it doesn't feel quite right for a Refuge in Audacity tactic, by doubling down on supporting Mat, because you kind of gain nothing. It does feel like a Villager move, because an Elim would be aware of the optics. But then again, IDK - E!Shining is kind of SOL because the other options aren't great: voting alongside Mat will be eh, and a very late vote on Mat would attract scrutiny because bandwagoning. So IDK.

She roleclaimed Son of Feanor C2, which is why I said it's down to Devo or Mat if you theorise that only Sons of Feanor double role last cycle. She spent C3 and C4 pushing E!Mat when she didn't have to - there were a menu of options for suspicions, as her only solid Village reads were really myself and Danex. She could have easily pushed Symph with little reprisal, and weakly defended TUN against me. She was the first Mat voter on C4, with TUN the second. Mat stayed on Devo and that was a two-vote train C2 [Edited to add: Sorry, I'm tired, it was C3] - could easily have been lethal. Are you seriously trying to sell - that after Mat has been gunning for Devo non-stop, that your top two suspicions are both Mat voters? Shining, your votes were exceptionally fluid on C1, to the point that JNV voted you for it. Since then, you've narrowed down, refused to significantly engage with the thread, and consistently voted Devo - despite discussion hopping to a number of places on C3, C4. That's a mode shift, too. And in my view, it's more E!indicative - Elims 'know the correct answer', and so have difficulty generating authentic suspicions. After your mention of playing with Mat in the WoT game, I went back to read that game. And there's a genuine engagement in your posts in that game (excellent work against Vorros, btw) that I'm not seeing in your play after C1. And I think that difference is because you were converted - because why wouldn't Mat want to convert his former Warder anyway, next to an unknown quantity he didn't even know was Feanor at that time? I won't deny I could see a E!TUN world: Mat is okay endangering TUN for Village points because TUN has an extra life. Neither of them counted on Symph's vig kill and Archer's vote manip. But the thing is, TUN didn't need to vote for Mat. Active Elim teams do need a sacrifice sometimes or mutual distancing, but TUN isn't the sort of active player that makes people go "dude, why are you still alive?" at endgame with Mat. The fact they don't need to do this pushes me somewhat against E!TUN. And it's not really TUN's style - TUN's "Told you so" on C4 is the sort of hyperfocus dgaf I expect from a Villager. If you really are a Villager, I'm sorry, and I hope you will use your shield wisely to try to help us keep an extra Villager alive through to the next round. But I think I have more unanswered questions about you than TUN or Devo at the moment.

I can't offer that assessment. Melkor makes two Trinkets at one shot and I'm loath to think Melkor started with both a Helm and a Knife. This means he either made a Helm, or two Trinkets. If he made two, we can't rule out the chance the other Trinket is a Knife [Edited to add 2: Meant Jewel here, sorry, I'm tired], if only because it's best to plan for the worst case scenario. According to @Fifth Scholar, people don't choose the Trinkets they make, it's RNGed for. So there's that. In an E!Symph world, it's possible that Symph made a C3 Trinket (which could be a Knife or a Jewel, we really do not know) - Mat is not a Son of Feanor so it doesn't matter in this world because he would never be able to kill and would thus need to rely on Symph to pull off the kill. (But then, again, if so, Mat could just offer to use the kill for Village cred and get Symph to pull the trigger. Maybe I'm just confbiasing but I really think E!Symph doesn't quite fit.) In the best case, obviously, Shining has no Jewel so there is no problem. Edited to add: I can counterJewel, it is true, but I think I'm better off hedging my bets by Shielding. Open to alternate suggestions. Edited to add 2: Theoretically, actually, if we assume Melkor made the Knife, then there's a 25% chance that the other item is a Jewel, since d4 is rolled. However, since this is Fifth's d4 and Fifth's dice like to curse the Village, I'm gonna say 0.9 chance >> @Devotary of Spontaneity

Long story short, I'd say likely just use items and abilities where appropriate. Here's some contingency planning for if Shining isn't Evil. I think Shining is our best bet (sorry Shining) but am open to being talked around. In an E!Symph world, Symph kills two of us unless TUN Knifes Symph and takes the correct Fell Sword away. But this is unlikely as E!Symph will have received Mat's Helm and can self-protect. Suppose: we lynch Shining, Symph kills me and <Devo, TUN.> The Silmarils are released, so this is a mess. The surviving player between <Devo, TUN> 1v1s Symph. Symph will likely have to keep a Helm because of the Knife - there are a few good plays in this world, but I think the best one requires me to make the correct Shielding decision and pray the gods of luck are on our side. In an E!Devo world, Symph kills Devo (I think Symph wanted to?); otherwise, at least roleblock Devo. I try to Shield appropriately. Symph-TUN should hopefully be able to 2v1 Devo, but again, Silmarils potential mess. If you have a Fell Sword kill in reserve, this will be good. In an E!TUN world, the 2v1 is between Devo, Symph, and TUN, with a likely 1v1. A lot of the uncertainties here come down to how the Silmarils work so I'd say ideally we get the last Elim today so we don't have to find out >>

Yeah, basically. There are currently two votes on Shining, which means there is only effectively one vote on Shining. If Shining counter votes you, you have a 50% chance of dying. Why are you so sure Shining will die? What is the point of RBing Devo last cycle if you still think she's Evil? Edited to add: Like c'mon guys. Two votes in a five player round is pathetic when vote manip exists and we can still lose this due to the extra Fell Sword kill floating around. Please vote. I am OK with being argued into voting someone else but this is not an okay vote margin and as it stands, if Shining is Evil, potentially hands a free Villager kill over. Look. If E!Shining votes Symph right now, in the worst case scenario, Symph dies and Symph kills Devo and Shining kills me. If Shining has a Jewel, then everyone HAS TO VOTE. Another endgame against TUN which Shining has a decent chance of winning because Eru only knows who the Silmarils end up with. Y'all really okay with that sort of ending? C'mon. Please vote. Talk me into voting Symph if you want but not like this. @Devotary of Spontaneity @The Unknown Novel @SymphonianBookworm @Shining Silhouette And Devo, Mat claimed to be shocked that people started with an item but your guess is as good as mine. Edited to add 2: Let's do the maths for a Shining vote. Treatment of Symph or anyone else will be the same, just don't subtract one vote. Suppose we start with four votes on Shining, Shining votes someone else, e.g. Symph. Now, we know Shining is a noble. This has never been disputed since C1. JNV confirmed this when they noted they received no Jewel. Therefore: This is the effective votecount. If Shining has a Jewel and nullifies someone's vote, this is the result: Anything else results in a tie that has a 50% chance of a Villager dying (in an E!Shining world, Shining is only going to vote a Villager, end of. I suppose Shining could self-vote, but given the way the evidence currently looks, it would take more than that to convince me of V!Shining.) So we need a full four vote train, in a world with E!Shining and a Jewel, to lynch Shining. For anyone else, we need a three vote train minimum. Please vote guys. We have a shot at this.

No worries, just checking but I am fairly convinced you are Village at this point. If Shining's Evil, we'll need a consolidated Village vote - less if Symph is Evil. The Noble problem. Edited to add: @The Unknown Novel - Interesting that you failed. Suggests that he made a Helm or was Shielded, and he can't make Shields. Relevantly, Shining claimed starting with a Shield. Edited to add 2: Ok, let's work with this - pretty clear evidence he had a Helm since he can't purely be Shielded twice in a row. But we also know he had a Knife, since I got Knifed. Which means we have two actions here: Made Helm, Made Two Trinkets. Personal theory: I got Knifed so he could keep one Trinket and the Helm. @TUN, suggest you Knife whichever of the two you most suspect (my bet's on Shining though), as my concern is they may have a Jewel, which could make the vote manip closer than we'd like. C1 - Mat converts <Shining, Symph> C2 - Mat makes a Helm. (Best guess; your Knife failed C3, so.) C3 - Mat makes two Trinkets. C4 - Mat has a full inventory and so uses the Knife on me in order to remove the Jewel (dangerous vote manip) and to reduce his inventory to two items Helm, OtherTrinket. He might have made the kill, or just made items to Heir and give his teammate as good a chance as possible. We know now that Mat is Melkor so it is uncontroversial that Symph made a Fell Sword C1. The fact that Symph made a Fell Sword C2 [Edited to add: This should be Shield, sorry - Danex confirmed this so we know that Symph cannot have killed.] suggests that in an E!Symph-Melkor world, Melkor had to make the kill. So where does the Helm come from? This team isn't consistent. With actions economy and Mat crafting, strongly suspect Shining is the only teammate that makes sense here. Thanks TUN, that info is pretty helpful Edited to add 3: I'm finding that odd too. My current theory is that since Mat was posing as a Son of Feanor and everyone and their uncle was a Son of Feanor, the risk that someone would get a Silmaril on my death and find out that he was lying about it and lynching him was too high. Then subsequently, it became more important to take out a player who could be action cleared (JNV). Presuming that if we can't get enough of a vote margin to lynch Shining today (everyone has to vote - because Shining is a Noble, if Shining also has a Jewel, then anything short of four votes will lead to a tie, which could be bad for us), I'm the obvious kill target because Silmarils could present a vote multiplier. Or maybe not - I guess they could also reason that it's more important to keep the Silmarils locked in case the vote margin becomes impossible to bridge, IDK.

Thank Eru. I was beginning to doubt my sanity. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, JNV. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Araris. I am not fully set on this, but here are initial thoughts. I need to go re-read subsequently before making a final decision. Recommend everyone else do so too. -I still lean towards Symph being IKYK lynch bait. I don't fully see Symph as a convert. But then again, maybe it really is that simple. The fact Mat supposedly had a PM with Symph makes some sense in terms of V!Symph being alive because he had pocketed Symph - but then here's the thing. Why leave Feanor alive now that he was going to die anyway? - @SymphonianBookworm, care to confirm you RBed Devo? Did you give a Fell Sword to anyone last cycle? (Actually, mind reconfirming for us what you did with your item and role actions each cycle, please? Just for revision purposes?) -I received a Shield. And someone tried to Knife me. Thought you said you didn't intend to use your knife? @The Unknown Novel -Shining's defense of Mat is almost too on the nose. Part of me believes that it's not where Mat's teammate would hide, because they would know they would look really bad in light of Mat's flip, while part of me believes that yes, this is exactly where Mat's teammate would hide in a Refuge in Audacity tactic. -Devo has a history of bussing. Devo is first voter on Mat last cycle, backed by TUN. I give more credence to TUN's seconding the vote, as TUN could easily abstain. But Devo was sort of forced to vote Mat because Devo had already gone down last cycle as backing Mat over TUN, and what's more, I am very much aware E!Devo does this. But IDK. I think E!Devo could easily wait until later in the cycle to push. She didn't. Village points for that. -Suppose that TUN didn't use his knife on me. I think it'd be strange at least for TUN to be Evil, knife me, and not kill me because he had to know I would call him out the next day. As I'm doing right now. Mat could be trying to distance from TUN but IDK. I just don't read C2 TUN as Evil. [Edit: I mean C3 and C4.] Ok. So V!TUN and V!Devo for me. Down to Symph and Shining. So: likelihood: Melkor converts C1, because there was a C2 and C3 kill and the game hasn't ended. Symph claims to have made a Fell Sword and kept it C1. Devo has no actions. Melkor could have killed C2. But Devo claimed vanilla Son of Feanor (I suppose she could be a Smith? IDK, is that even likely?) and Dannex flipped V so we know he truthfully roleblocked Devo C2. Which means that either we have a theory about Helmed or Shielded Devo C2, or Devo didn't put in the kill. The reason I'm walking us through the possibilities right now is that I was Knifed. We can either theorise that E!TUN did it, or we have to theorise that there is at least one cycle in which Melkor spent an action on making a Trinket. I am currently going to go with Shining. I think Symph is an odd conversion choice, in that Symph would be guaranteed to attract attention no matter what, and JNV's death is obviously to force us into a final few without someone who can be soft-confirmed via actions economy. I consider myself moderately committed to V!TUN and V!Devo at this point in time. @SymphonianBookworm, just to cover some bets, would you object to this sort of arrangement: make a Fell Sword for Devo or TUN, whichever of the two you trust most. @The Unknown Novel, @Devotary of Spontaneity, make sure to Heir someone you trust. This way, no matter what, one living player should get the Fell Sword due to OoA. This way, we can be absolutely sure that either there will be a missing kill, or we know that Symph isn't killing. FWIW, I suspect I was knifed for the Jewel. And that the Jewel matters in light of Shining having a Noble role. But okay. So C2 and C3, at least one cycle, Melkor likely made Trinkets, specifically a knife. I suspect he made it C3, and used it C4 because of the knowledge I had a Jewel. Edited to add: I lied, let's do a basic look at the votes: Cycle One: IMO nothing much else to work out of that. Cycle Two: This is rather interesting. We know Mat later makes a Devo push, and Shining still has one here. Given the potential endangerment of Mat, Shining's vote placement looks worse than Symph - Symph couldn't save Mat, but being on a two-vote train (Devo) lets Shining position/generate a potential tie, which would in effect keep Mat safe. Symph being on a side-train looks a bit better to me because Symph doesn't actually care about the cycle results despite Mat being slightly endangered (if only by a third vote.) But It's worth doing vote progression analysis here: Everything is 1-1 tied until: Danex and Conq simultaneously switch to Araris. To be fair to Shining, Mat was not in danger. But Shining doubles up on Devo, voting with me. This vote then remains stable despite Archer hopping around a bit. I do think Symph's vote on TUN is a more dgaf vote, and could potentially be read as Elim dgaf. But I think the stability is rather telling in light of how fluid Shining's votes were in C1. Cycle Three: Symph and Mat splitting here looks more sensible. But I don't overly fixate on this because I genuinely think Feanor is a risky conversion, an easy patsy (though: Fell Sword Devo could be a threat so why not kill Feanor or me?) Killing me might not have been an option because of the Silmarils and the fact that JNV and Symph could action-clear themselves though, IDK. Mat came under threat this cycle so I want to look more closely at it. Archer opens the voting with a vote on Danex: And Kas joins with a vote on Mat because what is this cc lynch on Araris. Devo backs it up very quickly with a vote on Mat. Note: This is either A+ distancing or Devo continuously pressuring and putting Mat under threat despite not having to engineer such suspicions. I am no longer seriously willing to entertain E!Devo worlds. Dannex then votes TUN: Mat eventually self-preses on Danex, claiming it's too quiet. Symph has commented at this juncture but not voted - compatible with an E!Symph world because self-pres is better for them. They don't need to connect Mat and Symph this way. But IDK about the coherence of that world because Symph would later go on to give Mat a Fell Sword anyway and if you're gonna connect like that and claim PM manipulation, might as well go full hog. FYI: No Fell Sword reports makes me also lean V!Symph. I think that Mat could easily remind Symph to use the Fell Sword more aggressively than Symph seems to be doing and the fact that Symph's concern at that point in time is also largely focused on proving they're Feanor strikes me as a more Villager idiosyncracy than Evil. Shining, meanwhile, opens a new train on Devo. That feels a bit more like vote dilution, and I think it's especially telling it's on Devo and for kind of the same reasons as C2 - not much engagement with previous content despite claiming to do so earlier. I then shift to Archer, and Mat takes the chance to double up on Devo. More evidence for V!Devo, in my book. This is an hour and twenty minutes to rollover. Mat doesn't care about endangering Devo. They are not teamed. Now Symph cares, and now Symph votes Danex, making it a tie. This reads like a new player move to me. I'm okay with this, it happens I go onto TUN because I don't like the Danex or Devo trains and don't want Danex to die, and TUN is in my pool at this point. Devo joins me. Mat asks about switching. If I'd said yes, he'd probably have had to do it. I think this is good reason for V!TUN: there's no point in leaving his teammate's fate in my hands if he didn't have to. I tell him to use his best judgement. He stays put. Suggestion IMO is that he doesn't want to get his hands dirty for the TUN flip and realises it'll damn Devo. V!Devo, V!TUN. Cycle Four: The core of the problem. Is Symph joining the train late a teammate who basically was told to go distance properly? Or is Shining's TUN vote a Refuge in Audacity tactic? Shining's low final vote diversity definitely doesn't look good to me, TUN aside. tldr; I am currently hard committed to V!Devo and V!TUN. I think the voting evidence is clear: Mat is willing to endanger TUN. Mat doesn't care about Devo's welfare. Devo continuously pressures Mat when she doesn't have to, when from the very start, she could have generated different suspicions. TUN and Devo are early and consistent on the Mat Trains C3, C4. TUN's reaction C3, C4, is very Village. Between Symph and Shining, I lean E!Shining. Low vote diversity, poor cycle engagement (as opposed to player idiosyncracy in Symph's case) make me believe in E!Shining. Symph could have used the Fell Sword more aggressively against Village interests. The fact we haven't heard anything of that sort and Symph sat on the kill for so long makes me think not. As a player so aggressively new, Symph would also not be as tempting a conversion target for a two Elim team, due to welfare concerns. In addition, we're currently 4/1. In terms of risk, I think it is pragmatically better to go with Shining than Symph - if Symph consents to the plan. If not, I get why, but also, things become a bit more problematic. If Symph is Evil, then lynching Shining brings us to a 2/1, and this should be obvious based on whether a Fell Sword does or doesn't appear. Not the best case, but not unwinnable. But I also don't really feel right about Shining and I am currently rather convinced that the Elim team was playing to try to get a paranoia lynch of Symph to happen. Thoughts? @The Unknown Novel @Devotary of Spontaneity @SymphonianBookworm @Shining Silhouette Shining. I think that's where I am at. Edited to add 2: Additional thought - I take Symph's stabbing of TUN to be somewhat Village actually. Here's why: E!Symph stabs Devo, claims Mat/someone else was convincing. There were two votes on Devo C3, this is doable. Done. Symph does not waste time stabbing a Thug because quite frankly, Village lynching a Thug is a self-pwn on the Village's part. Symph stabs someone else like Devo or JNV, and Melkor puts in a kill on Archer. TUN survives to more Village consternation the next day. Thugs don't matter to Elims - as long as they know who the Thug (i.e. player with an extra life) is, they can just work around the player.

He could be Village. I'm not dead sold he's Evil. I just can't really see the others as Evil right now so it's my current read. My resident theory is still that you're deliberately being left as a IKYN but even in that world, someone else had to be putting in the kills. And even if he's Evil, it happens you know? Is the name of this game, don't sweat it. I respect this read, although I have to admit I question the timing It is extremely possible that I am simply not capable of pure Village reading Mat anymore ever since MR53.

Thank you. Oh, and @Devotary of Spontaneity I received a shield. Dunno if that was Archer's, but there you go. If so, I think that's fairly good reason to think JNV didn't put in a kill last cycle. Dannex's sword should've gone somewhere though. IDK what happened to it. Edited to add: @SymphonianBookworm - Would suggest giving someone you trust a Fell Sword to actionblock. Both JNV and Devo are Sons of Feanor, and if action blocking Devo doesn't stop the Cprrupted kill, you should be fine if she has one. Alternatively, if you don't mind using two Fell Swords, that's another alternative. I don't expect to be long for this world - the major threats are down, and killing me releases the Silmarils closer to endgame, which will be a Mess and a Half. Edited to add 2: Oh, wonderful, quiet EoC, the one thing everyone distrusts.

So, question for you. Suppose you are Village. Are you planning to smite your biggest suspicion with a Fell Sword? Just the fact that before I headed off to OT and sleep, I genuinely could not understand why despite your posts, I'm struggling to purely read you as Village, I suppose. It's the one about how it is in itself suspicious if you don't have a pure read that falls one way or the other towards a player nearer to endgame. That the best Elims are the best at seeming Village until you look at what they've done and then ask yourself what makes you consider them Village. Devo's defense of Danex was sensible, and it was the one point that kept getting ignored in favour of FUD. I did try to entertain E!Danex worlds but most of them involved E!you or E!Devo. TUN is likely more an apathy clear, but I also just read his first post this cycle as being fairly Village. I simply can't get that off you, not even off your progression explanation, and if you're Village, I'm sorry for it, but at this point, I'm just going to vote where my instincts go because I've had it with running in circles over Danex conspiracy theories as happened last cycle. In theory balanced with Silmarils and a Village Orator, I suppose. But I'm not sure. Reasonably, I think Melkor is likely between <Mat, Devo.> In terms of where I feel I am maybe willing to vote, it would be between <Mat, Shining.> FYI that since Devo has not fully said it: Devo phrased her Mat over TUN inclination last cycle as being nakedly based over a read of Mat being aggressively neutral and TUN being more or less low-key thought Village by most.

Yeah, well, it was a joy to watch, thank you Shining Mat I've slept on it. Still not willing to let it go. JNV still reads Village to me, and I'm still more willing to lean Village on Devo. If I'm wrong about her and she plays me, so be it, best effort basis, but this situation doesn't make sense. Mat's tone is off and I've thought about it, and I think what I can't articulate is a combination of TJ's principle and the fact that there's a consistent undercurrent of "you have to have a solid, zero doubt case about me" running through some of his posts, which I take to be a fundamentally more Elim attitude ("I can't be caught like that") than Village. Edited to add: I am definitely sympathetic at this point to the idea of nuking everyone else and winning it for the Noldor as the sole survivor -.- Alas, Finwe has no 1337 airstrike powers.

This was meant to be a second edit but I got ninjaed by Mat. I was just noting I don't usually do tone reads so the fact I'm voting Shining because I did have a moment of ??? tonal dissonance is probably a sign of how at the end of my tether I am. But ok. Basic vote analysis I guess lesgo. Cycle One: Ignoring the delta, looking at what was public knowledge at rollover. Let's fill in what we know. For the sake of courtesy, I'll green highlight my name. Our top two trains are pure Village. We have two clusters for Melkor at this point: 1. Stable Side Train -> <JNV, Shining, Mat> or 2. Who Needs To Vote Anyway? -> <TUN, Devo, Symph> Revisited C1 impressions: -TUN really stayed under the radar. -JNV asking Symph for items is consistent with their subsequent Son of Feanor claim, likely hoping for a Fell Sword. -Conq offers an alternative: asks JNV if they'd be willing to go to Wiz for self-pres, saving Danex in the process. By this point, JNV is very quickly no longer endangered - Shining pulls off JNV a minute after Conq, while JNV wants Shining for vote volatility. I can kind of see why since JNV no longer needs to self-pres? -Mat's votes are fairly stable and I'm /shrug about the stability of his Araris vote. (Btw, @Matrim's Dice, any particular reason you stayed on Araris C1 in light of the chaos near EoD?) I do like the thinking behind the Danex vote and unvote though.) - @Fifth Scholar are you sure you remembered to put Melkor in this game .__. -Devo making the sudden Archer push is still weird, and I have Had It with the crack Dannex theory, thank you Mat, and thank the Force I will never need to hear the crack Dannex theory again. The question is, is it Village weird or...? -Symph is very fast to just claim Feanor. Cycle Two: Revisted C2 impressions: -Araris gets lynched in absentia again. RIP Araris. -I don't disagree with the premise of Shining's Devo vote because I've been going to and fro on this repeatedly but I am just not sure which way to read this. -Despite coming under threat, Devo feels no particular need to self-pres. Result of Conq and Danex simultaneously voting Araris? Or no fear of ties? -Symph is coming across strongly as a new player and this matches Danex's impressions and tunnel (? Is it a tunnel if he right tho?) Possible deliberate play? -TUN has run out of chulls to give and it is beautiful. -Mat's vote is fairly stable. Cycle Three: Danex - TUN - Devo scramble. Thanks Archer. Enough said. -Shining's vote fairly stable on Devo. Unclear if tunnel or...shift from earlier fluidity in C1 feels kind of notable tbh. -IDK what to make of Symph's vote on Danex. Given Symph's experience, perfectly understandable. -Seriously am I just tilted or is half the world seeing Danex sus when I'm not because nothing in C3 threw me off as much as Archer and Mat jointly insisting Danex could be sus and Symph jumping on board and now I'm wondering if I lost my sanity in C3 or something -Okay you know what nevermind he's dead but I'm just wondering anyway. -Mat being willing to swap off almost would have to suggest a Mat-Devo team - the only player he was gonna endanger was TUN, maybe Danex. I wish I could feel like it is possible to wring insights out of this, but honestly my brain is just looping in and out of tired muttering. ngl if I think the only doubled role is Son of Feanor, then realistically my Melkor candidates exist in <Mat, Devo>, maybe <TUN> if we're theorising a shield. Of everyone I actually feel best about Devo and TUN. I don't bloody know why. I don't bloody get it. Ok yes I have been going around and around and around about Devo and TUN and I don't know if it's shuffle squatting with Mat again but part of me just won't let it go. That yes okay effort clear, yes, looks Village but and I can't bloody seem to get on board with it and I don't bloody understand why. Agggggggggggggggggggggh. I'll try again later. I think it's clear I'm not making progress apart from understanding what it is like to bang my head repeatedly into walls. Hi SE, I missed you -.-

Suggestion you keep using the Fell Sword to roleblock, if you can. Stopping a kill is good for us and also good evidence that player is hinky. It'll force Melkor to be smithing or using Shields, IMO. I'm going to try to commit to more analysis but I also have to do overtime work tonight. In the meanwhile, because the dead doc is probably frothing at the mouth with how little activity there is: Shining. @Matrim's Dice - Just to be clear, I think it's NAI and I'm not basing my Village read of Devo off that (as I mentioned.) It's just that I don't take your point to be a point against her. I did ask her in the PM before it closed why she kept pushing for you over TUN and piecing her responses together, I believe I understand what's going on there, but this is something I don't want to dwell overmuch on and I do believe it's better for everyone if she answers that directly. Edited to add: Long story short, PM suspicions discussion. Consistent disconnection in tone and vibe, and dgaf disengagement. I don't expect disconnection from an Elim team who is frankly not anywhere near pinned down or tied down so that emotional tone behind posts and engagement with the game doesn't make sense to me as coming from an Elim. If it were me, then yeah, disconnection is probably a huge neon red 'PROBABLY EVIL OR STRESSED AF BUT MOST LIKELY EVIL' sign but AFAIK, it doesn't make sense for an Elim. I don't believe we're anywhere near to having them on the ropes. I don't deny it's possibly fallible as a read but it's what I'm working off. My current view is that most of what I have on Devo could go either way, but I can't see E!Devo being this out of it. My other take would be that I agree this isn't something people have access to so I accept if people disagree and wanna exe Devo. I just don't really feel like it's the right call here. It's where I'm currently at I guess.

Shining claimed Noble and it showed up in the vote count, backed by you because you did not receive a Jewel, so Shining hadn't bribed you. Odds of a Noble!Melkor?

JNV was mech-cleared of making the C2 kill. E!JNV more or less requires a teammate who was capable of putting in the kill C2. No corroboration of C1 JNV. Rereading our PM during rollover. I will probably rethink this another seventy times in the next few hours, but Danex's flip makes me feel a bit more sure of myself, since Devo and I were the ones defending the idea that convert!Danex didn't make sense, and Melkor!Danex more or less requires E!Mat. I mean, my main counterpoint to that is that I think it's a NAI switch - without her switch, she could die, with two votes on her. Going onto you doesn't self-pres because I'd moved off you and signalled in thread I wasn't keen on voting for you. In light of that, her choices for self-pres were basically you or Danex, she'd historically defended Danex, and I generally consider self-pres NAI in most players. We're probably 5/2 now, going 3/2 next cycle.

This is why I'm basically running on more or less pure actions economy at this point. I just don't have enough faith in role guessing when Melkor could very well be more unique. Thoughts on Symph at this point? I suppose I could rethink the Shining derp clear or the JNV vibe clear, but Noble!Melkor? Shining convert? Fair warning that my Devo clear is semi-style/vibe based, so I wouldn't be the farm on it, but I can't see certain post tones coming from E!Devo, so that's what I've got for her. I think the TUN vote is compatible with both V! and E! Devo though, so I hesitate more on that. Her preference was to lynch you prior to TUN.

Fair, yeah. Mechanically it's possible for sure, if Melkor has a double role or was shielded. But the Shield might also explain the roleblock not taking effect. But I say this despite also actually now strongly thinking Devo is Village so I'm more hypothetically exploring the argument than really solidly going for E!Devo.

Ffs >> Taking a deep breath. Hopefully we've gotten the Evil Danex theories out of our collective systems now >> I shielded JNV last cycle. @SymphonianBookworm, what did you do on the role and item actions front? @JNV Similar question. TUN was attacked and survived - either a Sailor, or was Shielded from a Fell Sword attack. If we're theorising the Shielding route, since Melkor can't make shields (unless Melkor is a Smith), then a Convert has to be someone who started with a Shield. Not able to work through the probabilities just yet. I assume Archer votejacked someone onto Danex. Off the top of my head, has to be TUN. Devo roleblock stays soft-confirmed due to Danex's death, with the potential of Helm or Shield intervention. Presume Corrupted killing Archer is to deny voting firepower. Strikes me as a very strong IKYK with Feanor being set up. IMO, Danex's flip and Archer's flip should more or less solidify the alibis among <Danex, Archer, JNV, Symph, Devo.> Edited to add: I don't follow this - if you think that it's a Devo-TUN team, Devo would have to be Melkor, wouldn't she? Devo has always been willing to bus ruthlessly as an Elim - it's what threw people off her in LG73, AG7, and the last MR we were teammates together. FWIW I actually think Devo is Village and I'm not willing to bet on E!TUN anymore so I have to do a lot of rethinking at this point. Edited to add 2: Like, look at how E!Devo typically thinks. (You can check the MR doc - E!Devo is strongly concerned with consistency with her stated views.) Or even V!Devo in this context. She's not going to self-vote. She's already gone on record as saying that Danex doesn't make sense as a convert since C2. Who else does she really self-pres on, realistically, in this game? @Matrim's Dice I blame Aman for these awful discursive habits, ew.

Use your best judgement. It's all we can do in this world of suffering .__.

Effort clear is both for that and generally posting and being noisy, doing reads, the basic helpful stuff. I expect E!Mat to be able to manage that too, so I am not dead convinced. Archer TUN Eru help me. Valar help me. Tulkas help me.