Kasimir

Welcome!

DON'T YOU F-ING DARE HOLY CHULL I AM RETIRING FROM SE THIS INSTANT

It has ;-;

Done. Also done. Ironic but done

On the one hand, I'm tired af. Just came off what, my eighth game in three months and I'm just flat burned out. On the other hand: 1. One of my favourite GMs. 2. Simple/fun ruleset. 3. I did promise to support SE games as best as I could. 4. TJ bhai is playing. Ah fierfek. Signing up as Izmir, an aging Idrian diplomatic attache with a mid-life crisis feeling the pressure to make an actual breakthrough and save his stagnating career. Someone yell at me to actually RP this time, I feel like I didn't get very much done with Kamil which is annoying. RP drought/blck is real, sigh.

@ruler of the mists Hello! You asked about when a game was opening up!

I get that tbh. Sometimes it's just too high-energy for me among all the other things I want to be doing.

Welcome! Thread's right this way to get oriented: If you want to plunge right into the kayana, @|TJ| can set you up with the deadspec doc even if it's 90% WWE at present with just one spectator being srs bsns

Popping back in to nominate @Sart Sart as well. I know Champs is a pressure-cooker, but: @Ashbringer Ash and @Steeldancer Steel also have my nomination (feel free to reject it if it don't work for you.) Kind of in the odd place where there are too many impressive people but I guess part of the point is to start with a lot of noms then whittle it down.

Should be ok, since @Ashbringer is slated to post his game sometime this weekend.

How much time are you looking at? Be helpful to get an ETA.

Congratulations on creating a local pen group Let me know how you find them! I have Milky Ocean and love it What happened before that?

I got excited thinking we'd both listened to the same group then realised I confused them with Far Caspian After my CYOA game group started to come up with our own entrance theme songs due to a joke one of the players cracked, I'm listening to The Plan, from the Tenet trailer again. (Don't think I can link it due to profanity in it.)

In the spirit of advanced warning: @Ashbringer should be setting up sign-ups for his MR soon. On the next LG-please-submit-your-ruleset-so-we-reduce-friction front, TJ is passing (as he has back-to-back sign-ups.) 1. @The Unknown Flame 2. @Steeldancer 3. @xinoehp512 4. @The Wandering Wizard 5. @Ashbringer ( ) 6. @Amanuensis Can y'all sound off on your availability to run please? We'd like to get the ruleset in to committee early, knowing it may take time to develop and to be approved.

I'm tired so I'm just gonna lay it out straight: I can respect that you and Illwei have a different evaluation of the votestate and possibly a better one, given I'm not very good at being Elim. But this didn't feel like a situation that required a bus out the gate and had a dead cycle for part of it. Even if TUF eventually being exed was unsurprising, it didn't seem inevitable, and the two are different. Particularly with you coming in and casting doubt on the backing behind the TUF train as follows: I'm concerned the first paragraph subtly undermines the reasons behind any vote on TUF, implying that it was a blind sheep train rather than a reasoned train. I don't feel the second paragraph really changes that, especially given where your votes went and the fact attention didn't really return to TUF there. So the first question in my head is which of us better captures how the Elims saw the cycle. The second question in my head, coupled with where you were in the votes and your general position on the D2 voting, is whether you're trying to then get us to doubt players who should really just be softcleared from their votes. I don't disagree bussing is possible but I think that you setting the agenda for a busser hunt is also a good way to deny us the ability to just solidly use info from the voting to narrow down PoE. The busser hunt forces us to re-expand it and go back to ground zero. It's FUD tactics writ large. It can be Village mindset motivated but I just don't like what that means for you in particular in terms of where you are and what you're doing. Theoretically you could say I should feel the same about Illwei and I kind of would, but Gaewei voted D1 to bring Polly back into contention in the three-way, and that seems to have more Village credit to it. My other issue is that despite the busser hunt and the PoE issues, you're...also kind of still 100% locked on V!Terris and I really don't super buy that. Maybe I'm not much of a post reader (true) but I struggle to see that being consistent with someone who is self-admittedly very paranoid. In an E!you world, this could, to be fair, still be an attempt to build doubt on V!Terris by supporting Terris to the hilt. I think I'm too tired to work that out. (I will agree rationally Terris has voted out two Elims so if there's a Sitter I'm more willing to vote for Amyrlin, it should be Terris, but I think the decision should be delayed as long as possible. As an aside, I now agree with Terris about getting BridgeBoi's passive life burned because the fewer Sitters there are, the less room we have to work around the passive. Unless we think Bridge is gonna look super Village into the future, it's better to resolve the passive now.) But yeah. Basically I accept you can argue it comes from your read of the threadstate and it is a fair point that Illwei agrees with you, but it's a conjunction of things I don't like about you, and the fact that the busser hunt is functionally FUD doesn't make me much happier with the situation. I have a sneaking suspicion I'm paranoiding too much, nonetheless I'm kind of just done for the night due to exhaustion and meds making me groggy. I would also agree with Hopper sus, and...yeah no not gonna try to offer a readslist while groggy, I feel that's just a recipe for disaster. I guess I'm gonna leave it at that. Goodnight everyone.

If I assume it's weird for TUN to voluntarily vote his teammate into an already-existing four-way, then I'd take him out. If I assume most of the four-way was clean and in distancing mode, then Aet's back in. But independently of the voting, I don't feel comfortable with V!Aet tbvh. Both Ash and I believe Aet stays in via NKA, and this was partly behind why Ash and I agreed to flip TUF in our Ajah - we had doubts about Aet, felt Aet was largely pushing against a TUF exe despite being okay with it on paper, and I had my doubts about the Hopper train feeling very static/dead. So I guess what I'm saying is, honestly no, I have my doubts despite my read of the voting. Lol. Yeah, same.

I think the reason I don't agree is the votes spent an awful lot of time parked on anyone who wasn't TUN. It felt like there was a very real possibility it wasn't gonna just, result in mechanically flipping TUN. A lot of D2 was focused on looking at other people. If anything, the Night's talk doesn't even feel relevant because everyone was looking at non-TUN holes. Even Aet who was like "TUN just needs to die" pretty much never voted TUN. I'd like to see those because I'm coming around to E!Hopper after the post where Hopper kind of aggros Storm for voting him I think.

Ty bhai. I'll stay on Jo and keep him at a single vote. I assume the distribution we want is something like this: This way we avoid issues with BridgeBoi's passive, have Jo take the Stilling since it's unlikely TJ gets a PH (I could be wrong I guess, maybe y'all check the situation or ask TJ if he has a PH an hour from rollover) and keep Sart/Steel/Terris in the running for now? I'll try to wake up in time but imma be real with y'all, I'm trying to establish a healthier relationship with SE and only do what I'm in the mood to, and waking up early for rollover ain't it, though miracles can happen.

That...is such a weird attitude to have? Like why is the willingness to go random any less unreadable than voting for a Sitter lmao. How from his POV is making you a Sitter any easier in terms of trying to read anything into the voting? Edited to add: Day Two [RAW]: tldr; -Probably at most two Elims in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Aet, Storm> -Corollary: probably at most two Elims in <TUF, Mark, Hopper, Storm.> (I say this and yet still distrust Aet lmao.) -Hopper/Storm probably not E/E. More willing to believe E!Hopper, V!Storm - I did not like the OMGUS energy from one of Hopper's posts and I think I'm now overcredencing on an early Hopper post. -Mark??? -Would like to know why @The Wandering Wizard thought TUF was more sus than Storm but voted Hopper. - @Sart - What's your thought process behind a Hopper vote you knew would do nothing? -Terris/Wiz not E/E

I was thinking of N3 onwards depending on the numerical drop. I don't foresee us struggling to avoid maj tonight. Depends I think, I'm too tired to do the maths for it off the cuff, but just, like, the longer we can prolong avoiding maj the better. In worst world, let's assume <Drake, Jo, Mark> are all Village. IDK about Mark but I'm willing to feel that way about Drake and Jo right now. (If I'm wrong, great!) We're looking at losing all of them by D3 plus the NK target and the exe target (assuming a ML.) That's a bit more loss volume than we'd necessarily like and is a free balance for the number of BA we've exed. IDK maj would be that unavoidable either, but yeah the more we can stay away from it, the better. Repeating my call for Sitters and people in Ajahs to talk about what elections were like in their Ajah. I'm slightly wondering if Blue Ajah is one of the Ajahs the BA would push to get the Sitter position in if they had a choice, due to the passive immunity. FWIW if TJ says that Stilling comes before the inactivity flip ( @|TJ| ) , I might just let Jo be Stilled so we can delay the election by one more cycle. Edited to add: I'm aware some of you probably said it somewhere in the thread but that's way too many posts, I'm old, I'm tired, I work with frickin' children, I don't wanna do this, and I'm spending my energy going over the votes and some possibilities so I'd like if you could make my life a lot easier and just say it again if you've said it already, and if not, just say it, damnit!

It's the canon name now I see.

Btw, we may need you guys to be ready to whip out those majority+ powers depending on what happens tonight. Not sure what maj will look like N3 but if we lose Drake and Jo simultaneously and have two more deaths, the vote threshold could drop drastically on N3. Hold fire first but think about it tomorrow I'd say - our goal is to delay the Amrylin election for as long as we can. And make sure we don't sleepwalk into accidentally electing Terris due to Grey Ajah having the passive -1. Also, can people remind me who in your Ajahs wanted to be elected and who didn't? + Sitters, how did you get elected? I'm the guy Jo was referring to as One, and Ash was Two - Jo campaigned for Sitter, I challenged him as I felt I would probably give us an easier time if I campaigned for Amyrlin, but eventually decided to support Jo though Jo offered to back me instead. I V!read Jo for our interactions about the nomination. Ash was immediately ready to support Jo and didn't want the Sitter position and was also wary of having me get it. (I sussed him at that time for it as I didn't see the impetus for immediate Jo support + felt E!Ash would probably not want an unexable and un-NKable V!Kas to deal with.)

Oh? Okay, I'm done for the day so I can take a look at some things. In terms of our current Sitters, I'm probably somewhere like this: Terris - I still don't really agree with Aet and feel Aet is overcredencing here Jo / Steel - Steel theoretically voted Polly out*, I guess at this point I should state I obtained Ash's permission to claim because it's mostly in-Ajah interactions that jacked my V!Jo credences earlier (generally our arguing back and forth about which of us should get the nomination for Sitter, and Jo having a really weird segment in our doc during N1 which he later deleted where he screenshot his spreadsheet notes, noted Polly was the only she/her on the player list, and then said he felt bad about Polly getting voted out early. To my mind, it's a very weird tangent and not really one I'd expect an Elim to just casually bring up like that in the doc.) Sart - I don't think Sart's votes have been great, and I think people are overcredencing him for his comment on delaying the Amrylin election when I think this is a mech stance E!Sart would be happy to point out as well. BridgeBoi - Self-professed D1 sheeper, but had a ? vote, just didn't really get called out for it due to being Blue Sitter. I could probably be argued around to switching Sart and BridgeBoi, I'm just not as sure. Part of the complication here is we're probably losing Jo regardless, so IDK how much sense it makes for me to keep Jo alive. @|TJ| Bhai, where does this fall in terms of OoA - can Jo be Stilled and inactivity removed at the same time? How will you decide between Drake and Jo if you only have one PH? *I think Aet is overcredencing on the idea that someone bussed. In an E!Aet world, I think that's deliberate. I think bussing is possible but my understanding from Drake is that it's just a lot more aggressively a thing on MU than here, and I'm not convinced that a bus happened terribly early because the exes were competitive until late in the cycle. The main thing that appears potentially of concern here for D1 is, as Aet noted, that Polly could have self-presed and seems to have made a Choice not to do so. Anyway: we have five Sitters left, and IMO, since we have exed two Black Ajah, one of whom was a Sitter, we are probably looking at a maximum of three Black Ajah in the Sitters, meaning there are at least two loss-avoiding tickets [=electable Village Sitters] in this set for us who need to remain in the Set (i.e. we need to keep them alive), unless we want to deliberately elect and despose a Black Ajah Amrylin I guess, lol. That could...also work I suppose? Damn now I regret we didn't just elect and despose TUF, would've meant we could just play the game normally Reconfirming the Yellow Ajah will hold fire tonight if only because I sure ain't pushing that button, and Jo's AWOL. Edited to add: I should clarify the Sitters, unusually for me, are ranked in order of read strength. I acknowledge I don't agree with Aet's certainty that Terris is not subwoofing because I can absolutely see a subwoofing Terris, but Terris's votes and pushes have been on point (too on point? IDK.) and it's also not good to just reject that. Jo and Steel are thus in the next tier. Edited to add 2: Known Ajah compositions (Black Ajah probably has this or will be tracking anyway, so to hell with it.)

For the record, I still think Drake is a Villager but it'd be really funny if Drake flipped inactive Elim. If we get a Drake flip, please go back and do the D1 analysis, thanks guys. Drake was a major CW too and this should explain some things about Elim D1 disposition. I'll do it if I have the time (SIGH) but everyone should be plugging in his alignment into their reckoning. Still think V!Jo, but not super sure.

I suggest subwoofer He's saying he doesn't think that the set of <Hopper, BridgeBoi, Storm> gives us our last Elims. It would be funny if it did because TUF shows up on high new player % E!teams a lot, like back in QF64 (I think it was 64?) where Stick, Hael, Aman, Mat, and I were Spiderman-pointing at each other and the Elims were the quiet new players. But no, I don't really feel that's correct either. My issue with this is: if E!TOW, isn't the other train here to pack on just V!Storm? They were 3/3 for quite a while until the TUF switch gained momentum. (Unless you think E!Storm also, but in a Hopper/Storm/TUF team, lol wtf is even going on? This team has zero thread control and to me, I usually don't want to assume it's in the quiet/low activity players immediately because that's how you lower the bar for participation and that generally benefits the Elims.) Some of it also boils down to how you feel about the people opening up sidetrains, which admittedly...promissary note but I'm only 20% here until the evening when everything is done. Edited to add: My objection to zero thread control is that sure it's rough to fight V!me for thread control but you know, it's also not the sort of thing you just lie down and cede and let me/other Villagers set the exe agenda without remotely trying to contest. It also makes the Teldris kill a bit more ? because that's the sort of kill you make with confidence the thread isn't thoroughly dominating you. I don't super buy the kill was meant to just misdirect because it's a lot harder to gamble on misdirection if you don't have at least one Elim capable of spinning a counter-narrative to FUD - otherwise you're just praying the Village goes in circles, which makes this the #ThoughtsAndPrayers team.