Kasimir

Sorry @Teldris Anuar! They should really have let you play the game and I hope this doesn't sour your experience and you had fun regardless. (I know you can't reply in here, but damn, I honestly think that was a really off-putting choice of kill target.)

Wow Elims that's a really low blow It's interesting as a choice because this severely breaks the 'don't shoot new players, let them have fun in the game' taboo, and makes me feel like it's not the sort of NK someone like Ash goes for, for instance. ...Sart's Elim isn't he.

Vote Kas for NK target! I vow to turn the deadspec doc into a live WWE reaction/replay doc!

She didn't actually Smh you mfers always tell me you're polarised and then you're not. Well, good luck Village! I'll be cheering for you from the dead doc! o7 Gonna be pretty embarrassing if they don't kill me but lol whatever we'll deal with things one thing at a time

Let's get this exe started. Smh what would you Villagers ever do without me TJ @|TJ| Aet @Aeternum Aeo @Aeoryi @Stick. Sis, are you electable? I'm in favour of sending someone who hasn't gone before, but I'm curious nevertheless. Feel free to expand the nominations, everyone!

You did pull off a very nice kill block though so hey, good way to go out

Probably about twenty one minutes more unless I've messed up my timezone conversion. Say what you want to before it hits! Side-thought: Kingdom is such a jam.

Right there It's good and bad in a way. It's good for you because it means I'm advocating treating you like any skilled veteran player. It's good for us because skilled players are to some extent more predictable in terms of behaviour than newer ones - the newer ones are always tricky to read due to large error bars. The line between being a chaotic new player and just being, you know, Evil, can be really thin and it's not always easy to call. It's bad in a way because, well, no kid gloves for you Moth's a player who just has a similar approach to the game. Your approach reminded me of her. She played a couple games here, but mostly Drake and I play with her on Discord. She was my Evil teammate in the last game I just came off. To put it bluntly, I'm saying you could be subwoofing/deepwolfing - an Elim trying to take control and appear to be as Villagery as possible to stab the Village in the back. I am ok with reading you as a Villager for now but I think your range is deep enough that I'm not gonna rule that possibility out of hand and I need the Village to at least keep that possibility in mind by C3/C4 and rethink then when doing their probability assessment. Reads should never be locked in stone anyway. Too Wolfy To Be (an) Actual Wolf - it's the idea that Elims care about appearing Villagery so sometimes a player doing things that seem Evil may be argued to be really a Villager because that looks so Evil a real Elim wouldn't do it. It's a controversial concept because sometimes it really is true but a lot of times, you can end up overthinking and clearing someone you shouldn't on the basis of...being too Evil. A lot of players and I think this was Aet in the AG just say you should exe when someone looks Evil. I've gotten burned by this but I still do sincerely kind of feel Storm has posts that come off this way - like Storm doesn't super care about how he comes across to people, and that's not something I feel E!Storm with a teammate down and a doc of teammates should be doing? But I also respect the error bars and the controversy, so I lean null+ rather than saying weak V.

Stick told me about it when we were discussing our thoughts on Champs nominees I have my sources. I mean, if Hopper genuinely feels anyone who isn't me is getting NKed tonight, that's kinda... Rule #1 of Elimming: Never suffer an obvtown to live unless they're wrong af lol. Edited to add: The one you probably don't know is mine because the two approximately back-to-back Elim games I came off were all on Discord.

It's mostly a combination of factors. But a lot of it is feeling people out and hoping for the best. I stated at some point that I thought someone in <TUF, Polly> was making an Elim slip and it seemed suspicious to me, but even then I wasn't really sure sure. Just gotta live with the uncertainty. If I'm alive and sane tomorrow, I'll probably say a bit more here, IDK if it'll help you out or not. I woke up at 0330hrs to catch the Glasgow live show and to try to make some posts in the thread because I'm probably gonna be the NK tonight and I want to drop my thoughts before EoD. Thirding the responses to you. I CBA to do spreadsheets and the number of times I've done link analysis charts can be counted on one hand. It's too much effort and I'm just here to have fun. How high effort I feel for a particular game is a combination of a number of factors including if I have the time, if I feel locked in, and if I just got off an Elim game. If I don't feel like doing vote progression analysis this round, then I'm just not gonna. Play it with only as much effort as you feel like. Looking at the D1 votes to at least get the basic chunk done: I've highlighted Sitters for everyone's convenience. Neither Drake nor Polly voted. If Drake doesn't show up tomorrow, he's probably going to get replaced in which case it's a tomorrow problem. Polly definitely significantly went over. I think I have a positive read of Wiz, but would not strongly clear Steel or Terris here off the votes, particularly since (a) Sitters in particular have an incentive to bus for V!cred, and (b) the fact Polly was willing to make a post claiming she was willing to let someone else be Sitter probably suggests the Black Ajah either aren't going all-in on the Sitter posts, or they have other Sitters. There's a possibility that instead of bussing, the Elim team just didn't have enough thread control to push back near the end, given the consensus Polly was uncontested as a train, or at least that people preferred Polly go over rather than I did. There's also the possibility they weren't really on in time. Not really sure. If the team lacks thread control, then I think I'd ask what to make of Drake's inactivity. Rough Thoughts: I'm tired and it's been a long day so I'm not going to really give read strengths here. Villagers Probably/Maybe? I think Wiz voting me then making a Polly pivot is probably fine. I feel a tad weirded by it because Wiz self-admittedly didn't want to contest for Sittership and also didn't really push anyone who followed him in voting for me so it feels like there wasn't any build-up to it, it's just a one-off thing. That being said, there's this post from Wiz that I lean positive on - I feel like E!Wiz in a world where Polly's about to go over, or at least a main train would either switch or at least have some buildup. His disinterest here feels like it should get some credit. (I'll note E!Wiz used to have a disengagement tell. I wouldn't worry about it but I am saying this read should be re-evaluated at say, C3/C4.) I am not as willing to give strong cred to Steel but IMO the straightforward view should be that he does get cred for breaking the tie between me and Polly. I will say that a meta-read of Steel for the moment leans positive, but not strongly so as I'm comparing at a brief, impressionistic level to his QF E!play here. I have a suspicion based off Terris's place that Terris has an E!range that players should not underestimate. Drakebro, if you back and reading, Terris gives me Moth vibes tbh. As a result, I will mark Terris as a player to be potentially re-evaluated at the C3/C4 mark. For the moment, I think Terris generally has some Villagery posts and was an early Polly voter. I'm not sure E!Terris busses Polly here, but this is just a gut feeling. I have a positive read of Drake based off N0, in terms of how he positioned himself in responding to me and taking a more counterintuitive stance that an Elim would probably be worried to endorse because cheap heat. I acknowledge this is something the game doesn't really agree with me about, and it may to some extent be a bro read/gut read. I haven't seen a reason to change this, but also, tbf, he hasn't been around. If I'm alive, and he's more active/replaced, we can talk about how I feel about Drake then. He usually prefers to kill me because we're not very good at hiding from each other when V/E. I generally have a positive read of Jo based off his posts and engagement with the game. Some of it is just very tone/vibes based. I would probably want to go back to relooking him at C3/C4 due to a bunch of factors. Slight positive read of Ash. Mostly meta-based, and his vibes in our Ajah doc feel more authentically Paranoid Threnody Ash than E!Ash - I'm not sure E!Ash would think to simulate this degree of paranoia. General positive/mindmeld read of Aet in thread. Have deep respect for Aet's E!range and wouldn't really bet the farm on this, again, constantly relook this read to decide how I feel about it. Gaea should get credit for faer vote. Beyond that, I'm okay with faer thread engagement. Null Trending null+ on Storm. I just feel that if TWTBAW applies to anyone, it's probably Storm over TUF. I don't really know if E!Storm kind of sticks to his guns the way he's been doing so throughout this game both on TUF and in terms of the response to Aet that I flagged on D1. I'd probably flip TUF first in that Ajah. I don't want to lock Storm V because I'm notoriously bad at reading newer players due to a larger error bar, I'm just putting my thoughts out there. Shout out to STINK - STINK lightly shaded TUF but didn't really have a stance. No particular read but I note E!STINK's superpower is he goes under the radar and people just forget he exists. Need the Village to not forget STINK. I haven't gone over the night in as much detail as I like so I've got a more wary weak positive on Hopper for that N0 opening. Beyond that, Hopper's gone below the radar. Hopper kind of feels alone in the thread and that's my entire take on his N0-N1. Well, no. I actually feel like Hopper not playing along with going No Vote after the thread was agreeing to gerrymander the votes is a positive sign - Elims tend to overcomply with Village plans, particularly new Elims who don't have the confidence to push against the thread. I am going to say weak positive to very weak Village on Hopper. I have reduced Sart back to null but leaning positive due to not knowing how I feel about him, and due to my being weirded out by vibing with his takes and our history as Villagers together (normally if we fully agree, I'm V and he's E.) At the same time, it feelsbad because we semi-agree, and by right that should be a mindmeld read, so I'm splitting the difference and giving him a weak null+ read instead. Sorry Mark IV. Feelsbad but null because I do not recall anything at all about your posts which is probably on me, but tired and running out of time. No real read on Teldris. BridgeBoi gets a a slight negative for the bandwagon vote. I'm sorry. I accept that BridgeBoi has an explanation, and the vibes are alright, but also, I'm not a great post reader and feel BridgeBoi could've just flagged this uncertainty on D1 itself rather than having to make a post-hoc explanation after the vote happened. In general, I credit actions more than I do posts, so yeah. Sus TUF - see these two posts here where I explain it at great length. Saying it N1 isn't a great look and fundamentally, whatever TUF's explanations are, it's one of a series of protective votes for Polly and probably needs a flip. (It's an action that materially benefited the Elims. Barring a super Villagery post, I feel that just has to be Flip And Find Out territory, or there's a decent argument for it. Minimally he shouldn't get to remain in the Sitter pool.) In terms of main people I'd look at/relook: <TUF, BridgeBoi, Mark IV, Teldris, STINK> - if you're a null and not a null+, I'm ok pressuring you. I probably have cleared someone too quickly that I shouldn't have but this is the nature of the game. My preference would be to still flip in <TUF, BridgeBoi> - I also accept that to a significant number of players, TWTBAW isn't a thing and you should just flip someone who looks Evil rather than saying that a real Elim wouldn't look that bad I...respect that, but I'm ok with my Hopper read and don't feel a Storm exe, but probably don't be alive to litigate that. I wouldn't spend too much time on Drake unless he returns because either he'll get replaced (and his replacement is probably more active and then pressure matters) or he gets removed, in which case he's not our problem.

Edited to add: Night voting gives us data too, especially when some Sitters flip. Conversely, who flipped Elims and Villagers vote for. Fundamentally my main issue is that we need to take control of the Sitter pool, or specifically, to control who gets Stilled each Night. If we let RNGesus take the wheel, then we are likely to end up with two bad choices to choose between when the time comes to select an Amrylin (as forced by the mech) and that's worse. We just gotta take ownership from the start. I'll add I think pace Storm that I can see a V!TUF world, but it's very TWTBAW based, and that's not very much a line of reasoning I like - I kind of feel Storm is a bit more TWTBAW here. I just think that the me-vote seems to have brought me back into contention alongside Drake and Polly: I'll check Aet's working when I have time later. I just wanted to point out that the key movements is TUF onto me, which brings me into contention against Polly and Drake. In an E!Drake world (I don't buy it for now but know a number of you do), this makes that vote look incredibly Evil because it brings a Villager into contention against Polly and Drake trains. In a V!Drake world, it's a bit less Evil but still pretty Evil because it creates a 2/3 chance that a Villager gets exed instead. And that's purely looking at the votes and ignoring everything I've said about TUF's blatant V!meta deviation and his performative randomness claim which seemingly exists to defuse the badness of the vote. Basically sort of 'yeah he could be V but honestly all of this in conjunction is enough for me to say "he just needs to be flipped tbqh."'

Tbh, think we may need to shift the votes around if part of the game is inactive or whatever. My original proposal just assumed everyone shows up. But that can be a later worry, still haven't super had the time to go over everything.

Oh crap yeah d'oh sorry I misread/misrecalled the Blue Ajah thing as Thug Lyfe rather than getting the next person Stilled. Then yeah @A Jo in the Bush is correct: lowest votes on BridgeBoi, two on TUN. Ideally we'd have no on BridgeBoi, but... I think we're forced to work around @TwinStorm here, if Storm is pretty sold on whatever he's cooking on. (Storm, simply put, the biggest issue with TUF is claimed random voting on a train that indirectly defends Polly. Regardless of whatever he says/does in doc, that's something that's pretty solidly Elim-helping. If that's not strong enough for you, then tbh, it also does seem like the new Elim tactic / arbitrary threshold of evidential strength thing being employed by you as well.) BridgeBoy was I think a second or third voter on me with a fairly opportunistic vote early on. I'm not opposed to him losing his Sitter status, just didn't want a random shot on him when there's TUF to deal with. Edited to add: I mean BridgeBoi... I blame Mark for sending my mind back to 2015 by mentioning BridgeBoy!

Why would it allow us to target TUF? Only one Stilling a Night. If both of them have lowest votes, it's a coinflip. And no I'm not concerned because he's not my lead suspect and I want my lead suspect sorted first. I don't buy precautionary Stillings. BridgeBoy Very helpful. The two votes is in the world Brown Ajah is unhelpful. Their Ajah ability prevents a target from being elected or Stilled when used. I don't want a situation where TUF and Storm use it (given Storm's posts defending TUF) and then because TUF is immune to Stilling today, it rands among the other Sitters, all at 3 votes each, for Stilling. I think we very much should control the Sitter pool and this means being deliberate about who gets Stilled if Brown is uncooperative. And if Brown really uses their ability, then that's info for us too because they've chosen to deliberately burn Village tempo.

EDIT2: Probably put BridgeBoi at 2 votes unless there's a more suspected Sitter—Blue Ajah immunity can eat one Still I think? Depends on whether Brown triggering their ability means the next lowest is Stilled or not. @|TJ|?

Edited to add: If @A Jo in the Bush can confirm the Yellow Ajah is holstering tonight then pretty straight forward. 17 players, put three votes on each Sitter except TUF. TUF gets Stilled because no maj. Suggest three votes so someone can't go rogue and just hammer on TUF. 3x5 = 15 so two people don't vote here. I guess the main issue is if Brown doesn't holster because they can use the Ajah ability to protect TUF here, judging from Storm's TUF take. That one we can't do anything about except to force them to burn that ability. Ideally Brown holsters because it's not good for Village if they shield TUF. Green should not smite TUF tonight because Brown cancels that out.

Ty bhai! Please rest and recover well. Oh, how're you feeling? Jo I don't want him reaching maj but I don't want him Stilled either.

As long as there is no Amrylin maj, Sitter with lowest votes gets Stilled. Because of that, would suggest we are deliberate about spreading votes to ensure TUF is Stilled while preventing any candidate from attaining maj. @|TJ| What's the maj number or did I miss it while speedreading?

Edited to add: Terris—one of the things TUF is pretty good at is spotting V!me. He likes keeping V!me alive because I can be pretty useful and anyway the NK will hit me very early. For TUF to not remotely spot V!me in a game where I'm being insanely blatantly Village* (for my standards) is wild. Add this to his willingness to vote me and the fact I think (?) it was a vote meant to protect Polly passed off as a random vote. I don't ever recall him going totally random without some measure of outcome control so him doing it here is doubly wild. I also expected V!him to push back against my sus of him but defending it by claiming he does random votes is pretty subdued for him. He usually likes to claim at least one Elim is LHF pushing him etc and I don't see that kind of confidence here. If he doesn't think I'm Elim and thus isn't questioning my pushback, then why contentment with the vote given his preference to keep V!me alive? Conversely, while V!TUF likes to keep me alive, E!TUF really loves to kill me off ASAP due to perceived threat which makes D1 stick out more. I also think there's some similarity of narrative between Polly and TUF in the way they tried to sus me although TUF has been less explicit—the same talking point mostly wrt my views of how he ended up Sitter and why he doesn't think it's weird his Ajah didn't question it. *I'm known to hate playing Elim and to be relatively quiet and subdued as an Elim. This also means that when I enter a Village game right after an Elim one, which is what happened here, I just explode into loud excited activity... Fml ninjaed by TJ bhai Edited to add 2: The same talking point bit is where I highlighted if Polly had made an Elim slip in one of my posts—basically it's weird both of them seemed to expect/implicitly assume I should know who is in their Ajah which might be them taking Elim Ajah knowledge for granted. Less sure on this precise point, need to reread when less rushed.

Off the cuff reaction as I'm busy rn: I feel like given TUF is the Brown Sitter, the entire Brown Ajah being Black Ajah is...possible but weird? Thinking probably one Elim in <Storm, TUF> and I'd rather see TUF Stilled and dead before Storm. His offness is way off the charts. Feel there might be an incentive to bus for trust wrt getting a Sitter candidate trusted and not desposed due to the win con complexity. No time to check right now who it might affect. Don't disagree on possibility of Drake pocket but trust myself to know the difference and to correct eventually. He usually just kills me early when we're V/E because we're too familiar with each other that it becomes very tiresome to fool each other for long. He tried killing me like four times the last round... Stymied a bit by the fact we're not Ajah-mates and thus lack a PM equivalent.

Sorry, not buying this remotely from the guy who always claims he can spot V!me from a mile away. Performative random voting isn't very Villagery either. You need to be stilled and voted out yesterday.

When I flip Village, imma need y'all to do one thing. Still TUN tonight, and exe him tomorrow. Yeah, yeah confirmed good =/= confirmed right but TUN is behaving extremely off his meta and IMO, this is pretty strongly E!TUN indicative. If, for some eldritch reason, I don't flip Village, you're welcome to ignore this. Or I guess IKYK this, up to you, not my problem, imma be watching ~Physical Theatre and yelling the spots out to TJ bhai. Edited to add: I'd also probably ask y'all scrutinise Gaea more as I kinda am wondering if faer 'I distrust talky people' thing is just a rusty Elim push - kind of seems to be different from faer approach in TUN's QF. I am aware pushing talky people and sussing them is more a thing in a new Elim profile, but I think Gaea being rusty could plausibly explain it. Jo looks V to me but I wouldn't lock him in until at least C3. Probably gonna die saying this but Drake just looks V, if somehow he doesn't die, y'all really need to stop the questionable Drake pushes. I'll let my Sitter claim me if they choose, or just not if they don't. Good luck and all the best. Y'all have one job, and that's kill TUN. Please, manage that.

I'm just gonna say this. I don't mind being exed here. However, if you are Village (kinda maybe lean this way because I feel the reactions to the 4-way tie was kinda tepid), you're gonna eventually need to stop kneejerk pushing players just because they're being vocal and pushing discussion. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's probable or the most likely option. The failure to care about probability over possibility is usually more E!indicative than anything. The job of a Villager isn't to go "this is possible", it's to look at what's possible and then decide what the most likely option is out of them all. (And maybe you don't want to, and you want to play it your way, which is fine as well, but an Elim is gonna exploit that, and I thought I'd bring this up for the benefit of the newer players, particularly if any of them start getting FUDed during the Amrylin deposition. I feel that stage of the game or alternatively, lylo is going to be full of people litigating that this/that is possible and could be X, could be Y, and if they don't get told to prioritise, Elims probably run away with the win without resistance.)

I'm going to go sleep soon and I'm not going to bother to be up for rollover. If I think my vote is better off where it is, I'm leaving it there. (Undecided, but I think there's a decent amount of complacency with the tie, which makes me believe it's predominantly Village, and the ones I've no solid read on are in <Polly, Gaea.>) I would like to see more pressure on Wiz, who has been fairly peripheral. I also would strongly recommend Stilling TUN tonight. I also think that if the votes don't change much, and if there's anyone who V!reads two or more people in the fourway (Terris maybe?) y'all should question them for consistency tonight/tomorrow given the stability of the fourway. Edited to add: Rather, I kind of E!read Polly and I have Gaea as a ???, my bad.

Freakin' New Guy. Pretend to be lost and not know how to play mafia. Murder everyone who drops their guard. A friend of mine says this about new players: you get to play the FNG card once, after that it's to exe jail with you I'm more wary of it because my first SE game was also my first Elim game, and my team asked me to run the FNG.