Kasimir

That's a very tactful way of saying "Had no sense of self-preservation and scars from AG2 about Smoking prolifically"

Alright, checked and getting back: Basically, the idea of testing a ruleset focused around claims/clears could be BT material, but your ruleset would have to be specifically tailored to that idea, not just using ToS rules. ToS isn't itself the issue, it's that BTs tend to be focused on one specific mechanic or set of mechanics you are testing. This sounds potentially a bit too big to be BT appropriate.

Sorry, I was tired - I meant Wiz. Other than that, this is fine. I've said this multiple times so I don't think it's that confusing but just in case

Eh, I'm already fairly convinced it's just a playstyle/approach difference. My depressed reads list is definitely a me thing so I get it that these things happen ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Better reads to V-read you anyway. [Edited to add: Meant reasons here. Am tired >>] Nice work! But damn, reminds me of why I have a strong distaste for MU. We just don't vibe, I guess. One day I'll take back my RP filthy casual rep for good Edited to add: This made me laugh so hard though.

?

As long as you've opened one, it lasts until one of you is dead.

Added.

I am going to double-post. I just lost a goddamned edit to the post editor and it is not worth it and I am not going to do this again. I don't care, I'm sorry mods but also not sorry, because I am really mad about losing most of my work through C1 to this goddamned post editor just because I wanted to summon an umlaut. Did a mass re-read: Cycle One In Summary From C1: Cycle Two: In Summary From C2: Cycle Three: In Summary From C3: IN SUMMATION: -I strongly V-read @Ashbringer. I think that Ash has consistently shown engagement with the game and the desire to help solve in pro-Village ways. I think that Ash had a very strong C2 of pushing Bookwyrm hard, and Bookwyrm shouldn't have reacted so suspiciously if Bookwyrm and Ash were teamed because that would be choreographed distancing. Ash's consistency on Bookwyrm also makes it unlikely that it was distancing. I think that given Bookwyrm's C1 votes, the TUN swing train was very likely pure, which inclines me to read Ash as being a Villager. I think E!Ash would have MLed Archer and stabbed me C2. I think Ash's paranoia of me fundamentally emerges from a very Village mindset and again, shows engagement with the game. -I strongly V-read @xinoehp512. Xino feels more relaxed and engaged with the game, and so closer to LG90 Xino than LG89 Xino. Xino blocked two kills in a row. While a world in which Xino was doing so for Village cred is technically possible, it is very, very unlikely. In any normal game, a Lurcher who stopped two kills simultaneously would be a Lurching god. I think that should very genuinely give Xino Village credit. I also like Xino's C3 Bookwyrm vote to try to bait a reaction and read connections from Bookwyrm's reactions. I think given Bookwyrm's behaviour and favouring of an Archer ML, the four-vote Archer train was very likely pure. This implies Xino is very likely Village. -I strongly V-read @The Wandering Wizard. On balance, I think Wiz is viscerally more engaged with the game and authentic than he was in LG90, and it shows at the degree of thought he's giving, and his willingness to assess without dragging in vagueness or FUD. I think that it makes no sense for Bookwyrm to make an extremely suspicious fourth vote on Archer if Wiz was already voting Archer and if they were teamed. That team gets more mileage from Bookwyrm maintaining a distancing vote. I maintain that Wiz's early responses in the thread suggest V!Wiz; this isn't consistent with E!Wiz who was teammates with E!Bookwyrm of all players. I maintain that I think the four-vote Archer train was very likely pure, which implies V!Wiz. Wiz also has a good C2 reaction with Bookwyrm that makes them unlikely to be teamed - given the fire that Bookwyrm was attracting, if it was a softball, you'd expect Wiz to coach Bookwyrm to respond in a way that attracts less sus. The fact Bookwyrm completely ignored Wiz's prompting for reasoning makes me inclined to think this was not choreographed and they are not teamed. Despite C3, I strongly believe Wiz is Village. -I strongly V-read @Turtle. I think Turtle's response to the TUN CW is extremely genuine, and if Turtle and Bookwyrm were teamed, Turtle would be more worried than confused or trying to stick with their null+ TUN read and be consistent. This is because Turtle would be an endangered Elim with their only teammate gone missing. I think that Turtle's C2 claim for fenweed sap came at a minute to rollover and read as rather genuine - this also means that the fact the counterintuitive C2 kill on me didn't succeed further points to V!Turtle. Turtle could very easily not claim the fenweed, fenweed Xino, and then have Bookwyrm stab me. Turtle was just reminded of the limits on the tent rules via a conversation in the thread, so I don't think Turtle could make such a mistake. Turtle had some fairly pure C2 responses as well, and expressed some willingness to go onto Bookwyrm with Ash. I don't believe a Turtle/Bookwyrm team mishandles C3, because Bookwyrm would've had a teammate present to coach him on what was honestly a tonally bad response. Turtle also deserves credit for roleblocking the Evil kill. Thank you, Turtle -I moderately Evil-read @JNV. Honestly, this is a raw PoE thing at this point. But I've also laid out some of the reasons I think I'm still committed to E!JNV. I think JNV's C2 responses are tonally odd, and more consistent with an Elim perspective than a Village one. I do think JNV softwalks Bookwyrm at several points by lightly sussing him but never really committing to it despite going after other players in the same suspicion pool like Silho and Turtle. I still am haunted by JNV's nonreaction to Archer's JNV bait post. I am rather disturbed by what I consider to be a subtle Elim red flag in the emphasis on proof in a game that frankly almost never offers you utter certainty. It doesn't emerge from Villager fog of war. I think Book most clearly implicates JNV as his teammate. JNV. If you are a Villager, ner vod, ni ceta. I will avenge you as a true Mando'ad should. But this is where I'm at.

That's why I'm wondering. But there's another thing that doesn't make sense to me and that's the N2 kill on me. It almost makes me wonder if Bookwyrm called the N2 kill, because surely they should've realised that you can't double protect, so you were vulnerable, and I was a pretty good candidate for 'player who got Lurched since Xino can't self-protect anyway.' In that world, might mean Bookwyrm's partner was inactive so Bookwyrm made the kill decision. Edited to add: Like, to me, in any sane world, you are the vulnerable power role and the obvious kill. I can keep for one more cycle, so why specifically target me N2?

I'm the Last Son of House Urbain I will never complain about some paranoia and contingency planning is always wise. But uh, it's also not my problem I'm actually Village and that Death still doesn't want to come for me yet Kinda puts Mat's "N1 Kas or I s2g he won't die" essay in LG90 in perspective I guess. For a while I was thinking he was excessive but I guess he's got a point? Maybe? IDK. Odds they both have it? Think it is possible by distro and would allow team to bus but feels to me like team should have at least one utility item, e.g. fenweed sap. Edited to add: Silver dust is probably easiest fakeclaim as Shade because Villagers are twice as likely to be affected by violation.

Oh dear. JNV claimed silver dust. I'm expecting a claim-off. Appreciate.

Were you told this? Because if not, I think I know what we can expect from this cycle. (I know, no copying/referencing your GM PM, I just wonder. Simple Yes / No works.)

40% chance of death to no vote filter.

It's cumulative. Turtle didn't vote last cycle so the filter increases by 10% for them. JNV - there are Wiz and Turtle worlds, I think, but JNV is most likely. Turtle's announcement may have come late in cycle, but if Wiz had the time to post, Wiz had the time to withhold the kill.

inb4 violation is a lie meant to sell this QF to more people i'm not complaining but im heckin perplexed rn

Uh, Mat? Does this outcome happen if violation hits someone with silver dust or what?

Allons-y!

That's why the hope was to force the kill to be withheld by Turtle RBing JNV... Even in an E!Turtle or E!Wiz world, they will likely withhold it to force a JNV ML. Am currently waiting for Turtle to announce their RB target shortly before rollover.

Bookwyrm, question. How is this exactly the better option since it's not self-pres?

Just got out of class and my brain is dead after convolutional neural networks ;-; Gonna go sleep now. Ok. So that does basically really nuke any notion of a holdout train. No go, train discipline better. I wouldn't super say lylo because we do have a shot if we can force them to withhold the kill, e.g. via you roleblocking, or if Xino can stop a kill, which is why I've been trying to see if we can plan/work for that scenario - if so, we go 4-2 into the next Day, with the hope Xino can manage an intercept, which maybe gives us a bit more of a chance/breathing room if we ML. Still, I don't like the risk involved, so unless you can show calculations about the holdout train leading to a better set of outcomes, I now feel maintaining train discipline is the better route. Yeah okay, so Plan A: try not to ML. Agree Bookwyrm looks more decisive as a train, and is our best shot if we absolutely have to take it. No matter how much I rethink, prima facie reason for V!Ash, V!Xino, some reason for V!you, V!Wiz, and Bookwyrm's last post is just way too off. Plan B: try to do clutch RBing Edited to add: Right before I forget- One factor that inclines me to V!Turtle besides the C1 EoD screaming is that as much as I think Turtle's been a bit weird, it's sort of the same as what Ash said but with regard to Turtle instead of Xino. E!Xino doesn't make sense because a WGG/WBG with me wastes time when we could be 4/2 (had I not been saved) and thus 2/2 with a NK and a successful ML. Thing with E!Turtle is I'm struggling to see how Turtle doesn't just...not claim the Fenweed Sap, roleblocks Xino, and assures a kill. Even if Xino says the next cycle he's been roleblocked, so what? No one knows who the Fenweed Sap was with, players can lie, and we'd probably be shooting blindly into the <Turtle, JNV, Bookwyrm> set. You could potentially get a ML depending on how much doubt was sown about Xino's claim, which is a good set-up into the next cycle, with me dead. The only world in which Turtle can't roleblock is with a Turtle/Xino team but then Turtle doesn't even need to put in a roleblock and can just submit the kill, no one knows any better if Xino claims to have been roleblocked. Not sure how convincing that is with the new lylo numbers but I wanted it out here anyway since @Ashbringer (and I am, admittedly) relying on similar reasoning with Xino. But given Xino and Turtle weren't in especial danger last cycle, difficult to see the motivation for such a play when they can just collect their free kill. So all in all...also points me to V!Turtle thereabouts. Ok sleep 4 real .__.

Honestly, there's an Araris response I could make here that I'm really itching to say But it's Araris's line, and I feel that my saying it would be anathema to who I am Let's just say... This exists for a reason :eyes: Sure, but I already responded to that last cycle. What are your thoughts on it? E!me doesn't redirect a train off Turtle and onto TUN. There's no point in sticking my neck out there to kill someone who explicitly and strongly endorsed V!Kas! Even worse, by doing so, E!me attracts attention and leaves V!Archer alive, instead of quietly letting an Archer ML slip through. Why is that reasonable from E!Kas's perspective? We could argue that E!me does it to save E!Turtle, but as you pointed out, me being partnered with E!Turtle makes even less sense. There is no reason for me to rock things when E!Turtle had a nice and unobjectionable self-pres vote against V!Archer, endangering him. Even worse, E!me has no reason to go off V!Archer and onto E!Turtle, making E!Turtle the CW! It sounds odd to say it, but when Araris sort of asked this during LG73, it was a bit of a mindblowing moment for me, because I realised the 'how does this make sense to E!player?' heuristic is useful in trying to figure out if doing X makes someone Evil My whole point of the TUN CW was that I wanted to save Archer, who I'd started to robustly V-read, but not at the expense of Wiz, who I also V-read, and Turtle was never going to consent to CW on Turtle. Since I think you'll agree we're not E/E, and so I had no way of knowing you'd be knifing Archer (to the point I immediately leapt to the very strong conclusion Archer was NKed, which we now know is false - check out early C2), it's reasonable my calculations had to be made with the assumption Archer was going to survive. I don't fundamentally disagree with this tier and I think it's good someone is covering all bases. But I also will add that I have them as Light V to null+ at this juncture. More on that later. We don't substantively disagree on tiers otherwise. So I was going to suggest doing a holdout train with either both @Turtle and @xinoehp512 or only Xino, protecting them from Violation and guaranteeing they'll be able to roleblock/protect this cycle. But when I crunch the maths and pathwalk, I don't see this leading to a superior set of outcomes, meaning that train discipline looks to be our best shot. Unless someone can see where a holdout train makes sense, suggest everyone maintain train discipline. FWIW, we cannot afford a divided train next cycle as it will be lylo if we ML. In that world, we still discuss widely but we subsequently need to consolidate on a single train or risk an Elim hammer. If I'm dead by then, whoever is alive, please remember train discipline. I'm going for class soon and then planning to nap, so my reads will be cruder than usual. I'll expand it if/when I can have more rest. There is no guarantee I will be back by EoD because I'm that dead inside, unfortunately. MODERATE VILLAGE: LIGHT VILLAGE: NULL-: EVIL: I go for class and sleep now. Hope to be back by before rollover, but if I do not: Glory to the Village.

Is this a challenge sir Are you looking for a Striker Kalebane, Shield of the Lynch, and Terror of GMs to sign up and break your game :eyes:

N1, I'd agree. But I think you'd do it out of necessity at some point: you acknowledged in LG84 you needed my death earlier than Orlok's, for instance. But I'll take the point. Question: why are we at lylo now? As far as we can tell, we're not. In a 4/3 world, we are, but based on the current set of claims: This is a fairly protect light environment and makes me inclined to think it's a two-man team. Not impossible to be three man, but with Turtle claiming a single charge of Fenweed, and one Tent, I'm not sure how Village handles that, especially if Ash had died from misstabbing. Too much volatility. ? versus: Broad thoughts beyond paranoia sowing. Attempt to engage with and reflect on rules in a way that enables game solving - possibilities resolved in a Village-positive way rather than the way he peddled E!Kas fearlynch in LG90. Agree it's not a full 180 and there's some continuity there but I think the fundamental orientation of Wiz's analysis is dissimilar enough that we're back to the prima facie problem, which is that there's prima facie reason to think him Village. To be clear, in this context, my point of arguing is because if you're right about Wiz (and I acknowledge you could be), then there is a problem in my thoughts somewhere, and someone will find it. Yeah but this is a game in which there is no Confirmed Village Seeker, you know? We don't get proofs. We always get balance of probabilities. I will note that I do find that standards of proof issue here a tad concerning. That being said, my attention is very much drawn by Bookwyrm's post, and I'm starting to think that minimally, flipping Bookwyrm this cycle could give you some space. Bookwyrm's last post, in all fairness, rings so Evil I think that's more worth pursuing. But also, please take care of your own health? RL > game, and if you are this worn ragged, take care of yourself first. Even if the Village loses the game because of this, it's worth it if you are not screwing your own health over. Please get some good rest! JNV Bookwyrm

Hopefully not, but that's why it's a BT! Balance hopefully there but not guaranteed A fun time is guaranteed for all!

Question for you: if Wiz has been sheeping me, shouldn't he also have a positive Turtle opinion? I've hardy been quiet about the fact (especially in light of Xino's early Turtle vote) that I strongly believe that C1 EoD points towards V!Turtle rather than E!Turtle. First, sorry to hear, vod. Definitely sucks to be having a rough game and then get @ for inactivity. But I maintain that while the arguments are phrased as inactivity ones, they're not just inactivity ones. Especially since basically only two people are currently making a push for you: most people who suspect you still suspect Bookwyrm more. I'm probably the main Villager making a push for you, and I can lay out my reasons, as I have at several points: -PoE: I have reason to think every other player Village. We can argue I've made a mistake somewhere and I'd be happy to agree, but I am haunted by the fact that I at least have shallow, first-layer analysis for V!Wiz, V!Xino, V!Turtle, and I don't actually quite have that for you. It brings me back to TJ's principle, or the dictum that if a player is still null for you near endgame/lylo, you should be willing to vote on them. This was also the principle that had me voting on you in LG84. -Kill doctrine: This point is fairly weak, I will agree. But I believe the fact the team risked a kill on me rather than going for Xino indicates a likely low profile Elim team, meaning we have to look for players with a low activity profile. You're in that set. -Posts: Both your posts pinged me. We've PMed about your views on Archer, but the more I think about them, the more they feel off to me. Almost everyone in this game had some E!Archer credences, enough to vote him, or enough to kill him on Ash's part. Perhaps this is punishing you for being a better analyst than everyone else in the game, but you not responding to a post from Archer I would honestly consider JNV bait given your player profile and explaining it as a read that it is a V!Archer play is a judgement that has an anomalous confidence level, and looks like TMI to me. The E!certainty in your read of Wiz, and yet you arguing you could make a case for Turtle and Silho instead, along with fuzziness in your Silho read in the same post also pings me, and it feels as though you're trying to make a case for Silho. During quokkagate, I at least had a lingering gut feel you were Village. I badly want it to be true here but I simply don't get that off your posts. -Elim Profile: This is similar to the kill doctrine point, but we are back to C1 where we know that the Archer and TUN trains statistically cannot be pure. So we have to ask where the Elims went. Given my Wiz credences, and the fact that Silho flipped Village, and it would be hard for Ash to be Evil with the Knife, we are looking at an almost completely Village-driven swing. I think I would go so far as to say Wiz swapping to TUN in light of the fact the TUN train was already dominant feels like a somewhat unnecessary move for E!Wiz. There's also C2 where there's...functionally, everyone voted. The main suspicious vote movements, if you like, involved me starting a train on you (I'm Village), and xino breaking the tie in your favour (we could speculate E!Xino but that more or less requires E!you and has some prima facie plausibility issues due to Xino blocking the kill twice now. Also, given prima facie Village plausibility for Xino, any world in which I remotely entertain E!Xino is going to more or less require you to flip E first - I am not going to bork the order of inference again.) Possibly Turtle on Shining. The main answer has to be that the Elims have not been fairly active in the voting. Whether by coincidence or otherwise, this once again reintroduces you into our suspect pool. I think the issue with suggesting a Wiz/Turtle team: what does E!Wiz do when Turtle is endangered C1? The most likely teammate for E!Turtle is, unfortunately, within you/Bookwyrm/me, and as I pointed out in a response to Ash last cycle, there are fundamental plausibility issues requiring E!Kas to make some questionable and nonsensical decisions for a Turtle/Kas team to be viable. Also I actually sort of agree with Illwei on progression - but fair, this is worth asking. @The Wandering Wizard, why the high positive for Bookwyrm early? At the same time, I do expect players to revise their views. That's kind of how this game works. I myself was bouncing between E!Silho and V!Silho last cycle, which is fairly insane and extreme if you think about it, given Silho was in my lowest tier. I'd also flag that you've played with V and E Wiz flavours now: do you feel Wiz's current tone is consistent with E!Wiz in LG90? Because I do think that if it's E!Wiz this game, and I don't rule that out of hand, Wiz is playing with significantly more engagement than he did in LG90. It's hard to explain what I mean, but he was viscerally sidelining himself over the course of LG90. He is more interested in engaging with thoughts here, and it's a mode shift. You could postulate it's a team that is making the difference, but then we're back to the question of who Wiz's partners are, such that they can change how Wiz plays Evil within a single game? Two more questions for you: -Does this mean you are committing to a <Wiz, Turtle> team at this point in the game? -If you had a roleblock, who do you submit for a roleblock? Cards on the table: I'm engaging with you this extensively because I do think you are Evil, but like with Silho, I acknowledge I can be wrong and want to give us that chance, on both sides. I'd really rather not commit to MLing you if you are Evil [Edited to add: This should read Village. 1 hour sleep week go!], but either way, I will admit Bookwyrm's most recent post pings me as so Evil I am now leaning towards a Bookwyrm exe just a little. Fair enough. I ask about Xino because Xino didn't just claim to have the tent but to have blocked the C1 and C2 kill. (Which you were asking about.) In my view, given no other counterclaim, that makes it two solid pro-Village moves from him, unless you're entertaining WGG worlds right now.