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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
    I think I saw Chaos's review before reading TLM and sort of just went "Ok, different strokes from different folks" and expected to like the book more, but instead, just found myself vibing with it. TLM is a quintessential 3.5/5 sort of book for me: I liked the character arcs (except Wax, Wax just felt all over the place), I liked how much we got to get inside Wayne's head, really liked what we saw of the Ghostbloods and the Marsh and Kelsier appearances. And finally, aethers! But I felt it didn't hang together very well and the pacing was just off. I felt like I was being sold, prompted, set-up for a 24 sort of book, featuring a CT operation, and I ended up reading something that didn't really know whether it was still based in the Roughs-to-urban investigations that was there in the previous installments or going full pedal to metal. Real Big Damn Heroes or Batman vibes from Wayne's death though. Respect to Wayne, that was truly the biggest and most magnificent damn explosion, and a helluva way to go.
  2. Kasimir
    RIP I completely forgot we are in Shinovar and therefore actually have words for birds other than chicken and also have more conventional sources of meat like sheep >> Consolation Kebab time!
  3. Kasimir
  4. Kasimir
    Ngl I've done gochujang slathered popcorn before because it was what I had in the fridge. More pepper and paprika definitely sounds like a good shout. Sriracha popcorn, maybe?
  5. Kasimir
    I regret to inform you that one does not simply offer that nefarious looking Pooh Bear mere butter-drenched popcorn and expect to not be hit with the most Terrifying Thread Gambit. But also, here's the recipe so you can check it out for yourself: there's definitely some butter and salt but it uses about 1/2 cup of popcorn kernels and 1/2 cup of honey so. Yeah, it's honey-drenched.
  6. Kasimir
    Sorry I got distracted I had to catch the Shin chicken first >> Enjoy!
  7. Kasimir
    Oh, er, your toasted Shin grain, sir. With lots of honey! Lots of it!
  8. Kasimir
    ....Would anyone like some toasted and popped Shin grain with honey, butter, caramel, or salt? Anyone? :eyes: There's also chouta with chicken! Get your chouta fix today!
  9. Kasimir
  10. Kasimir
    Well, I'm still leaning V!Silho for the moment, though I acknowledge derp clears are dangerous. But at this point, I'm just looking for relatively isolated places - I'll have to build in the empty nodes later on. My current working assumption is that the nodes with most traffic are Village but that's just another way of saying "if you've been stabbed the most times, you are either a very lucky Elim or probably not a good place to stab looking for an Elim." I'm interested in the places that have been undervisited with stabs, and then do analysis from there to ID a good target. But again, just me thinking aloud to the thread. Better if everyone else has their own strategy, or looks for the weaknesses in this one. If the TDs can predict what everyone is doing, then they have an easy time. I think they should suffer too Edited to add: Cycle Two: See, the issue with isolation is that isolation can easily be lack of information as well - Chantara is relatively isolated but still was Village. Also a number of repeat stabber players. Turtle node continues to be the niggling unknown. Cycle Three: That being said, Elims are unlikely to be high traffic. So C1 issue again. Which is why JNV and Bookwyrm still look very Village. I complicate it because immunity, Devo complicates it because immunity, and also C1. We don't have sight into the Danex side, and the <Xino, MM, Cin> side. If they only interacted with the main clusters (connected via Bookwyrm and JNV), then that's a bit ? Nerdy does have one hit, but he's not high traffic either. Which doesn't say too much either way.
  11. Kasimir
    Statement of the Problem for C1 (working on the other cycles because why not.) A lot of this is likely because there are so many things we don't know yet. This is a sixteen player game. Four players can't stab (but will have to claim stabs, if pressed.) We have eight stab claims here. That's eight missing. We'll never know Turtle's because Turtle died. Same for Chantara. So drop that back to fourteen. But look at the ones known. We really did end up with a fairly circumscribed stabbing circle C1, from the known info. Going on to visualise C2 and C3. Stressing again this is just my analysis that I'm throwing out here for thoughts, objections. Ultimately I'd rather see a TD loss over a personal win so I have crossed from tilt to not caring anymore. Probably better routes to analysis, but I habitually think aloud into the thread anyway and GM PMs are for swearing into Silho is very isolated and I'm interested in whether anyone linked to Silho but also not surprising IMO - Silho mentioned being busy at Dragonsteel.
  12. Kasimir
    Many thanks Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Dannex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X TUN Kas X Nerdy Kas X Nerdy Kas X Turtle O TUN X X JNV TUN X Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> TUN looking more robustly Village with each second Edited to add: My bad, this puts TUN as: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas, TUN> Single Hit: <Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara>
  13. Kasimir
    You don't need a bedroom either. Put a futon in the middle of the book piles!
  14. Kasimir
    Thank you (wow without context this sounds so odd...) Thank you (same as above) Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Dannex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X TUN Kas X Nerdy Kas X Nerdy Kas X Turtle O TUN X X Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz, Kas> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> Italics for the C1 hypothesis flag, as mentioned with Wiz. Bookwyrm, JNV, and TUN still look pretty V to me. Still want to give credit to Silho for just saying outright he forgot, feels like it's easy for E!Silho to lie here. Admittedly a low bar given what the Forgotten did in LG73 but still. Edited to add: I suppose if no one will realistically kill TUN and really, no one should be doing it, then the smarter choice is for me to vote for someone I have V credences in. So... Silho I guess, on the strength of the derp, even if I don't know whether that's all that strong. Contemplating moving to Wiz.
  15. Kasimir
    Well, now you just have to bus all your teammates and win as a solo regular in honour of LG72, right?
  16. Kasimir
    Oh, I agree, I just meant we don't have full claims so for all we know, they went for a similar strategy to Elk: hint, and let people make their own assumptions. In which case there is no division anyway, because they are just in the ??? area. Yeah. As I said to Whysper, I believe in playing pro-socially with other Village (regardless of faction) since we can help each other via info-sharing. And every TD flip is sort of helpful but even though it also reduces our chances: it does mean we get a chance to try to draw connections and work with that info to identify more TDs. Of course, the alternative could be to double up on those we think are TDs given chances of survival but I prefer diversification - I don't expect us to be able to ID the TDs precisely at this point so I'd rather have a more forgiving landscape for our mistakes than to double down. Diversification also does mean the TDs should be feeling a bit more threat than if they knew for sure we are looking at the same few people That's comforting, as they may act more overtly, which we can then try to pick up.
  17. Kasimir
    Yeah, but functionally that's not very different from TD immunity, is my thought. The TDs are hardly going to refuse (maybe?) to activate immunity on the basis of E!Devo getting voted, so even if she hadn't voted, she probably wouldn't have gotten hit. You can relax that and demote her if you want to though, I definitely would not hardclear her in an E!Nerdy world. Who I acknowledge I may be tunnelling on again, but - I wouldn't cast a SE is fun judgement in a game where all I got to do was make a line, slap a vote, and stab people without success. Why is this weird? We don't win by team. We win individually. Only TDs win by team. Is that a reason you are thinking on a team level, Nerdy? As Devo and Whysper and I have argued over repeatedly, once Turtle flipped as an AA, the TDs were going to try to get us to agree to kill a SS to hope to find Turtle's partner. Why would I want to do the TD's work for them? The more space I give myself by refusing to help them execute players they want to Mark, the better my chances are of eventually finding a TD, as long as RNGesus doesn't curse me. Crying in Village PM bro Right, sorry, didn't respond here. If we assume they divided themselves 2/2, then sort of but not really? To recap: In my view, Elk never made a formal claim. This is the table I had: Aladar Sadeas Kas Xino Devo (?) TUN Wiz (?) Silho Turtle Devo read Elk as making an RP soft, which okay, I consider fairly reasonable. This is the table she had: Aladar Sadeas Unknown Unknown 2 Kas Xino Misting Whysper Devo TUN Bookwyrm Wiz? Silho Dannex Turtle Cinnamon Chantara Elkanah? Aarakocra? JNV ? for Elk. It's certainly likely that Elk was comfortable with being thought to be of Aladar, but functionally, in a world without full claims, there's just no real way of knowing where the rest of the TDs are. Given the Aladar claims though, and that I don't really feel the immediate need to doubt them, my views on helping the Elims continue to apply: which is - no, thank you. My view also continues to be that to a significant extent, I'd rather exhaust the search grid before going back to stab but I really think that's a me choice and the best overall result will be achieved by each of us selecting different strategies to maximise our chances of success. CONTENT FROM ABOVE WENT HERE THANK YOU SORRY THIS HAS NOT BEEN MY DAY College lost my transcript, my files got lost, I dropped a knife on my foot, and this RNGesus deal, please don't murder me IM thank you I genuinely missed the triple ninja.
  18. Kasimir
    It's an assumption. That's why I italicise it. Because to be fair, C1 immunity is the logical move - biggest chance of stray shots, perhaps. But - what if the Elim team doesn't think that way? You know. Elims would definitely roleblock Xino the Village Lurcher, right? I tend to respond the most to the game I played right before, which is why I mentioned Mat FUD a lot. Right now, the game I'm responding to is the one where we (=Xino and I) built in too many assumptions about Elim play. If we relax the C1 assumption (which, to put in perspective, is still the most reasonable assumption), then Bookwyrm looks even more Village, and you and Devo both share some Village cred because you both took hits in C1 as well. Because it's the most reasonable assumption, I don't want to give that too much weight. But if later, for instance, we realise the Elims haven't actually used the immunity yet, then it's good to know what other things become viable off the C1-C3 data. EDITED TO ADD: SORRY GOT NINJAED, REPOSTING THIS IN A SECOND SORRY.
  19. Kasimir
    What's interesting to me in the known data is the lack of dispersion. Like, there's a possibility of course that it's not dispersion, that it's just that there's a big slice of the data we're not looking at, but there's still a large skew in my view - first to the talky people, then to the known people, for lack of a better word. I still seriously feel that the <Xino, Mr Misting, Cinnamon, Nerdy> pool is off, if only because of how isolated it seems to be. I acknowledge this could be a lack of data. But I feel like you either have to believe that at least one TD is hiding there (TD comfort, recall) or that RNGesus has been extremely generous, such that all the TDs are in the talkative profile, and most everyone has been hit at least once. I haven't, but then again, I have the benefit of my GM PM. And probably the knowledge that E!me has better things to do than the frankly stupid if I were Evil move of trying to claim shooting Elk - smells too much like trying to ride Village credit, I'd just claim a Villager shot. To begin with, I'd just unvote Xino C2 if I felt it was so important to protect myself, rather than make Elk out me with a very suspicious late vote. One so suspicious that even Devo called it out. Xino...I'm two ways about. I don't feel Elk's move makes sense if Xino was his teammate. At the same time, I did do the Xino Study of LG90 and to link the results here, and quote myself: So I do note he's more out of it than he's been in recent games, but with the mobile and device issues, potentially understandable. But IDK. Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrm Danex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Wiz Nerdy X Turtle O Thanks Wiz! Updated version: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Nerdy, Whysper, Chantara> I feel like this might be one scenario where doing the network chart might make sense to try to ID connections, but I'm tired and not really in the mental state for it, so I won't. I will say this makes me revise a bit on Nerdy, but still a bit ? on Nerdy's engagement pattern and apparent fascination with voting Xino repeatedly It's not a part of SE I find very fun, so maybe that's what I struggle to wrap my head around.
  20. Kasimir
    Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Bookwyrn Danex X Devo TUN X Bookwyrm JNV X Turtle O Oh, thanks Bookwyrm. This one is actually extremely good to know, because this puts JNV in a position similar to you - they've survived two attempted stabs in the same cycle. It's entirely possible that there's some Ponzi scheme going on with TDs backing each other to the hilt, but given Elk never claimed, we just don't know, and Wiz-Devo-you is separate from Silho-you-JNV so that adds some credence to both you and JNV being V in my eyes, since you're the connection between the two clusters. So this means: Two Independent Hits: <Bookwyrm, JNV, Devo, Wiz> Single Hit: <TUN, Danex, Silho, Whysper, Chantara> I don't think it looks like an accident to me that we have Whysper and Chantara both in the single hit pool. I'm guessing that survivals may happen but it's good to see the data matching pre-data intuitions that single/independent hits should be some guide to Village status, even if imperfect. No. I'm just very bitter and angry that RNGesus screwed me over yet again, as usually happens when RNG is involved in a game. I'm never forgetting that goddamned three way redirect clusterchull with Joe -.- Players absolutely should be stabbing no matter what. Even if I kind of just feel like gambling on Elk having tried to set me up and stabbing myself to end it right now. I'll try to find my game attitude but quite frankly, not feeling it right now. Sorry about that. I'll try to tone it down.
  21. Kasimir
    Oh, don't worry about it. Stabbing is a scam meant to sell RNGesus more hope So we either force them to take a blind shot, or we simply don't oblige with Aladar stabbing. Back to the same deal again. Only unknown partner is on Team Aladar now. Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Devo Silho X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X Silho X X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Devo TUN X Turtle O FWIW, light V on Silho for that, maybe. A forget claim seems unnecessary when E!Silho can just claim stabbing anyone he knows to be V.
  22. Kasimir
    Okay, in that sense, yeah. So here's the thing. If we take V!me as a given, which, you might not want to, but I am not really interested in taking TD!me as a starting point here, then what you said wouldn't happen still happened anyway, which is Elk breaking the tie in favour of a Villager. You can disagree about accepting that, but then I hope you'll come back and revise that thought - if you are Village - when I flip Village. The fact I am Village inclines me towards thinking that V!Xino. It's what you said - it's sus either way, so why not actually score a benefit for your team by voting to protect a teammate? I suppose you could counter that Xino wasn't under threat, but really, neither was I. I did. RNGesus and whoever the hell thought the bloody RNGesus tie rule was a good idea disagreed I don't really care, if I die before I take out another TD, I'm still holding to this one, because I am actually pretty damned mad I got this right but don't get to get credit (and I don't mean Village credit, I mean wincon credit) for this anyway. Edited to add: Like again, I don't care if you think I'm lying. At the end of the game, when the spreadsheets are out: I made that stab. And RNGesus damned me to yet another cycle of hoping to get it right. Sure, I'm probably mad tilted by now, but wouldn't you be? You haven't made a single successful kill either, Devo. I did, and that doesn't get to count because of frickin' RNGesus. I'm pretty mad about it. Edited to add 2: If you claim you find SE really fun and your main engagement with the game comes from voting the same player a bunch of times in a game with no PMs, I begin to question whether you are involved in a doc or not.
  23. Kasimir
    Current State of the Stab Tracker: C1 C2 C3 Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Player Target Success/Fail Kas Whysper X Kas Chantara X Kas Elk X Wiz Bookwyrm X Wiz Bookwyrm X Chantara Elk O Bookwyrm Wiz X JNV X X TUN Whysper O Whysper Devo X Silho JNV X Silho X X Devo Bookwyrm X JNV Wiz X Whysper Devo X Devo TUN X Turtle O Hopefully we can get more stab data. Turtle and Chantara definitely appear to be paired. Whysper probably has a lone Aladar partner now. @xinoehp512 You ok with sharing who you've stabbed so far? Same to anyone else basically. IMO, Elk flipping more or less agrees with my thoughts: they're not very fussed about survival if Elk feels free to tiebreak, which implies to me that they're currently slipping very well under the radar. That being said, I was tied with Xino and I find it weird that a TD would prioritise tiebreaking in favour of a Villager, even if it were to try to get me to flip under the sense that I wouldn't otherwise flip. So probably okay with continuing to somewhat V!read Xino. Didn't Turtle die C1 to the Mark already? So how are you responsible for the Mark coming back into operation? I take it that Whysper could either be the C2 or C3 Mark. Meaning we still have one unknown Mark in operation. Ngl from Elk's behaviour, suspect it's probably me or Wiz or something else noisy in thread. Fair enough, it definitely happens to us all. Not really sure they did - a Mark that doesn't activate is a wasted Mark.
  24. Kasimir
    Put in that Elk stab due to bad gut, but I'm in the game, so I guess I lost the coin flip to Chantara Ffs RNGesus. Seriously?! I have to keep on doing this? Why? Why are you like this -.- Edited to add: I'm going to vote TUN unless there's a counterclaim and then scream in frustration for a while.
  25. Kasimir
    :eyes: Now you gotta tell me after the game. Or after I've ascended into Zen stabvana. We are thinking positive thoughts today, death and failure is not an option >> @Devotary of Spontaneity - Think it is clear Nerdy and Misting are making conscious decisions to lurk. Misting is theoretically in the Turtle pool, but so are Cinnamon, Xino, and Danex based off the assumption you're using. I don't see Danex not claiming - the idea of a conf vil read is always red meat to V!Danex and it's one reason I side-eyed him in LG90. Given Xino's history of accuracy, this is theoretically possible. He also didn't claim publicly until much later into QF63. I lean Xino for now. I don't really like rewarding lurkers, and I feel that the fact the small circumscribed set of stabs have been failing suggests the need to broaden the pool. Believe Cinnamon to also be a possibility, though Cinnamon hasn't returned either. JNV. Edited to add: Tbf you could argue accuracy is hitting a TD but I feel you have got to have some kind of luck at any rate to hit a player in the same cycle they're marked.
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