Quick Fix Game 54: The Smoking Mirror

[Kasimir he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

Really?

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice as Taidon, a humble farmer
2. @The Unknown Order as Vincer, duralumin compounder
3. StrikerEZ as TBC - Idrian Soldier
4. @Ashbringer as Faleast and AraRaash
5. @Steeldancer as Steel
6. Liranil as TBC - Idrian Soldier
7. @Archer as Jacques Noir
8. @Szeth_Pancakes as Pancakes
9. @Danex as Dexan, an expedition packhorse
10. Devotary of Spontaneity as Gatemaker, an Idrian agent with a mysterious past - Idrian Soldier
11. @Araris Valerian as Fadrian
12. Aureole as Auri, aspiring artist, emphasis aspiring - Idrian Soldier

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

Hmm I’m feeling a Steel/Szeth team. I’ll go Steel for now.

Might be worthwhile to check out Aureole’s reads. They did suspect Szeth.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Steeldancer he/him]

For the record, the reason I didn't move my vote on Liranil was... Because I wasn't on. Simple as that. Personally I'm kind of suspicious of araris

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

I really don't like these three posts.

Quote

Oh my gosh I forgot how fast these games go. I spend one day reading chainsaw man and I completely forgot about this. Not the best excuse of all time (but it was a really good manga). 

Not a lot of time left in the turn, and I have no idea what's going on. I guess... I'll leave things in the air and vote Matrim . Leave it to the dice gods to decide. 

Quote

Never mind, Devotary appears to have accused me of hating cats. Such an accusation is unforgivable. I love cats, second only to huskies and chinchillas.

 

46 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

For the record, the reason I didn't move my vote on Liranil was... Because I wasn't on. Simple as that. Personally I'm kind of suspicious of araris

There is zero reasoning present in any of these. And the second one stayed. Thus, my vote is now on Steel.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I really don't like these three posts.

 

There is zero reasoning present in any of these. And the second one stayed. Thus, my vote is now on Steel.

Well yeah the second stayed. I put it right there, Devotary accused me of not liking cats, and I take offense to that. 

After having actually read day 1, I feel like araris was sheeping on my (what was intended to be) poke vote to get a villager lynched. Also, some strong assumptions about voting on a team mate. Like, what? I was just poking to start some discussion. And then forgot about the game and went and read chainsaw man. I feel like this is pretty straightforward here. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Kill the new player in the second cycle? Really?

I’ll look into that. Elims don’t do that without a good reason… or they usually don’t.

… on second thought, maybe someone else should do that. Today’s proving an odd day for me.

Mat for reasons said last cycle. (Which I can probably put in better words if needed because that was midnight!Ash writing)

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

For the record, the reason I didn't move my vote on Liranil was... Because I wasn't on. Simple as that. Personally I'm kind of suspicious of araris

That was only a small part of my vote, and even if you weren’t on at the end of the cycle your vote was cast within the first half hour and there was time there. But if that wasn’t possible that’s understandable 

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I really don't like these three posts.

 

There is zero reasoning present in any of these. And the second one stayed. Thus, my vote is now on Steel.

This messes with my theory, awesome. Guess we’ll see what happens.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Kill the new player in the second cycle? Really?

I’ll look into that. Elims don’t do that without a good reason… or they usually don’t.

… on second thought, maybe someone else should do that. Today’s proving an odd day for me.

Mat for reasons said last cycle. (Which I can probably put in better words if needed because that was midnight!Ash writing)

If you can look into that, please do, I think we could use a FoolproofAshKillAnalysis right about now

(And also I would appreciate if you would put your vote in better words)

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

After having actually read day 1, I feel like araris was sheeping on my (what was intended to be) poke vote to get a villager lynched.

This is correct, although I'm not quite sure sheeping is the correct term, since you didn't have any argument to sheep on. And I was trying to get a player killed, not a villager. Something nobody else really seemed to want to do.

I'm going to vote for Steel, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, voting early and then disappearing indicates a lack of worry about the result of the vote. Elims can afford this more since they have teammates to defend them. There's also the possibility that Steel was around and was just happy with how things were playing out. Secondly, and this isn't a great reason, but if I'm right, an elim!Steel flip should clear me a bit.

I'm also strongly reconsidering my elim read on Mat. He is voting on Steel, and there's also Szeth's comment about tone, which I'll trust even if I don't know about Szeth himself. I also grudgingly buy his reasoning for D1, which was my primary justification for suspecting him.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just putting it out there, if you kill me, and then the elims kill another villager, that'll be parity. So, I'd recommend not killing me, cuz we'll lose. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

17 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Just putting it out there, if you kill me, and then the elims kill another villager, that'll be parity. So, I'd recommend not killing me, cuz we'll lose. 

That... doesn’t really help. Anyone else could say the same thing, and elims tend to be thinking about LyLo more than villagers regardless.

[Steeldancer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That... doesn’t really help. Anyone else could say the same thing, and elims tend to be thinking about LyLo more than villagers regardless.

Granted, I only just really realized that it would be Lylo. or ExLo? I know we changed some terms around here while I was gone. Well, same difference. Point is, my excuse is chainsaw man, and I think the elims are just teaming up to vote on me because I'm an easy target because I forgot about the game day one into day 2. Matrim's suspicion of Szeth without a vote behind it feels like an elim move to me, and Araris's vote patterns are suspicious to me. I don't really know about Szeth. 

Also one more thing. If I'm an elim, why is literally nobody defending me? If I'm an eliminator, then it would stand to reason that my team mates would try to establish an alternate vote so that A. I live and B. we win. But such a thing isn't happening. Therefore, I'm not an elim. 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Steeldancer
further logic

[Mat he/him]

24 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Matrim's suspicion of Szeth without a vote behind it feels like an elim move to me

Well I can’t really vote on two people at once but if I could I totally would be voting on Szeth too. Szeth’s vote on you is weird to me. And Archer wasn’t wrong when he said Szeth has been easily convinceable so far (I think that was it.) But that’s also something I very much used to be regardless of alignment, so idk.

I do think at least one of Steel/Szeth is evil, so I don’t really have a problem voting Szeth if more people want to do that. If your exe continues to have no resistance I might change over but that depends on a lot of things.

24 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

But such a thing isn't happening. Therefore, I'm not an elim. 

But it’s not even a quarter of the way into the cycle. Therefore, this isn’t valid. Yet. Though now that you’ve said it, your theoretical teammates could stay quiet for a bit longer than they would otherwise in an attempt to further this line of thinking, or the elims if you’re village could resist it to backwards this, so it’s also kind of a null point now.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer he/him]

Meant to post this earlier but my girlfriend came over early.

Okay. If we lose two villagers today, the elims will have parity. Assuming we then are able to correctly identify the elims, best case is we then have to win three coinflips to win the game. So this is exlo. Furthermore, the elims can vote for whoever today, then move their votes onto a villager at the last second and if a three person wagon is enough, win the game. So Dannex, TUO, today would be a good day to start voting. We need a four-person wagon on an elim to win (or a three-person wagon and an elim team with a low risk tolerance).

I’m going to be busy for much of today, but I will be on tomorrow morning in case I need to *dramatic sigh* vote. That strategy isn’t working out too well, is it?

The obvious reason for an Auri kill would be that they sussed Szeth. Could also be Mat voting for them that did it.

Steel made the kill blow. I’m not sure what was up with e!them voting for Mat, but if they tried distancing then got yelled at in the elim doc, and decided to go for the sure-fire exe of Devo, that would fit nicely into a Szeth, Mat, Steel team. So my theoretical vote would go to one of them. Except they’re all voting for each other. Diiiistancing?

I’ll also note that Araris has now been on two bad exes, so I’d love to hear an explanation for that. I like TUO’s reasoning that Araris-Steel aren’t e-e though, because in practice, that is usually how those things go.

[Mat he/him]

Archer, I notice you phrase things as if I’m confirmed elim. I ask you to reconsider so that this incorrect assessment doesn’t cloud your reads and therefore votes.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

 

45 minutes ago, Archer said:

Okay. If we lose two villagers today, the elims will have parity. Assuming we then are able to correctly identify the elims, best case is we then have to win three coinflips to win the game. So this is exlo. Furthermore, the elims can vote for whoever today, then move their votes onto a villager at the last second and if a three person wagon is enough, win the game. So Dannex, TUO, today would be a good day to start voting. We need a four-person wagon on an elim to win (or a three-person wagon and an elim team with a low risk tolerance).

I’ll also note that Araris has now been on two bad exes, so I’d love to hear an explanation for that. I like TUO’s reasoning that Araris-Steel aren’t e-e though, because in practice, that is usually how those things go.

Yep, I will be voting someone, but I'm following my earlier reasoning and not voting Araris or Steel unless they're the only option that wouldn't lead to hammering.

40 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Archer, I notice you phrase things as if I’m confirmed elim. I ask you to reconsider so that this incorrect assessment doesn’t cloud your reads and therefore votes.

This feels so elimmy to me. So, for now, Mat.

[Mat he/him]

22 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

This feels so elimmy to me. So, for now, Mat.

…You’re not serious

Im not just going to idly sit as the rest of you self-destructs by voting me. I don’t want Archer to lose sight that I’m not confirmed elim, (or elim at all be he doesn’t know that) that his read is just a read, or he might misjudge other things. We need all hands on deck. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

49 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

…You’re not serious

Im not just going to idly sit as the rest of you self-destructs by voting me. I don’t want Archer to lose sight that I’m not confirmed elim, (or elim at all be he doesn’t know that) that his read is just a read, or he might misjudge other things. We need all hands on deck. 

… as much as I think Mat’s probably Elim, I agree. Remember what happened last time when everyone thought Mat was confirmed Evil?

He was the Tineye, a confirmed good role.

[Mat he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

… as much as I think Mat’s probably Elim, I agree. Remember what happened last time when everyone thought Mat was confirmed Evil?

He was the Tineye, a confirmed good role.

Yeah, that was interesting  The funny thing about that though is everyone suspected me because I hard trusted Elan, who was the Starling- but no one else knew that.

Here I’m not being suspected for trusting an elim, we don’t even know who the elims would be, but that’s beside the point :P.

why do you think I’m probably elim anyway?

Edited July 19, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Steeldancer he/him]

25 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

… as much as I think Mat’s probably Elim, I agree. Remember what happened last time when everyone thought Mat was confirmed Evil?

He was the Tineye, a confirmed good role.

That was awkward. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

… as much as I think Mat’s probably Elim, I agree. Remember what happened last time when everyone thought Mat was confirmed Evil?

He was the Tineye, a confirmed good role.

I think that Archer's belief in Mat being conf elim isn't true in the slightest, that response feels so wrong to me. Plus, we don't have any conf goor roles in this game.

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I think that Archer's belief in Mat being conf elim isn't true in the slightest, that response feels so wrong to me. Plus, we don't have any conf goor roles in this game.

? Is it just me or is this very contradictory- “I think Archer’s belief in Mat being conf elim isn’t true in the slightest” translates to I don’t read Mat elim, doesn’t it? :P. And then you’re voting me.

The part about me being the Tineye doesn’t actually change the reasoning, it just adds to the point.

[dannnex male]

hmmmmmmm

I'll throw a vote on Steel for now, but I'm really not that confident in it. 

TUO is giving me mild elim vibes too. 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Danex said:

hmmmmmmm

I'll throw a vote on Steel for now, but I'm really not that confident in it. 

TUO is giving me mild elim vibes too. 

• Szeth/Dannex/Araris
• Steel/Ash/Archer

I get a cookie when the game is over if one of those is accurate

[Steeldancer he/him]

I'm afraid you're getting no cookies from me (although I've been told I make very good cookies). 

[Archer he/him]

I still think Tineye Mat was super sus. :P. But it's not really a fair comparison because he had a list of all the elims, which changes a person's playstyle. 

The votes so far today have gone Steel, Araris, Steel, Mat, Steel, Mat, Steel. (Hey, that's a lot of votes! Good job, gang.) Could be the elims are bluffing with their later to be moved votes, but I'll go out on a limb here and guess Mat and Steel aren't e-e. I'm a little confused why Ash defended Mat there, but with where the votes are, I'm not sure how they could be teammates. I'm guessing one of Dannex or TUO is evil, and we'll obviously be able to tell which based on the resolution of the Steel/Mat thing. Then I guess Szeth takes up the third slot, since Auri sussed them and Mat, so that could be enough to justify killing a rookie. Good news is that means all 3 elims have had to use their votes already, so the village can shift over to Mat and a hammer won't be of much help, unless they use Steel's vote on Araris, but I suspect Steel will self pres if required. That's my current hope, now it's time for me to sleep