Long Game 78: The Legend of Zelda: The False Heroes

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

13 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Night 2 was when TJ said they scanned Drake.

Right, of course, so there cannot be anyone who's confirmed village.

2 minutes ago, WhiffleWaffles said:

At this point in the game, I don't see what else we can do? I'm not an experienced player by any means, but we're at 7 players and if Link is killed it's the end of it. Unless we can start to communicate and at least trust someone, that's the end of that. Link had been on a ball streak, but I knew as soon as Attic survived that removal it was the end of that streak. Now Link is defenseless for one cycle as he's not able to submit a kill action.

No one has role-claimed to me in a PM, but I wouldn't say it's far fetched that a Hyrulean Knight still exists. Pyro was removed at the beginning of the game and out of 27 other players, why would there only be one Knight? I don't know how role distribution works, but I'm not going to just toss Quill's message to the disposal bin. Also remember the time one player said they didn't believe Dannex despite them claiming Sheikah and telling us that Wei was Kohga, which turned out to be true, but they still didn't believe them. 

Well probably what would happen if Link claimed to this Knight is that he'd be telling the elims and thus immediately die. Even in the miraculous case where quill and this Knight are village, there's no way for Link to get in contact with them without trusting an outside party or quill guessing correctly.

I doubt that the village would have Mipha and two Knights while the elims have no protection. Also, apparently Knights cannot self-target.

[WhiffleWaffles]

16 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Well probably what would happen if Link claimed to this Knight is that he'd be telling the elims and thus immediately die. Even in the miraculous case where quill and this Knight are village, there's no way for Link to get in contact with them without trusting an outside party or quill guessing correctly.

I doubt that the village would have Mipha and two Knights while the elims have no protection. Also, apparently Knights cannot self-target.

In that case, if there is a Knight the best someone can do is request a PM and hope for the best but still keep safe caution??

Knights cannot self-target so that means the Knight role-claiming in the thread will just paint a target on their back and Link would basically have to out themselves unless Quill took a guess on who Link was and put them in a PM with this "confirmed Knight." The elims know who each other are, all they have to do now is guess which one of us is Link and take their shot. 

[alright this is my last post for the night / day. I seriously need to get some sleep. I'll respond tomorrow when I have the time.]

[quillinthestars]

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Quill

If you have a line of communication with a “Confirmed Village” Knight, they had better have a very good explanation as to why Dannex is dead.

Aw, rude. As far as my understanding goes, the Knight made an honest mistake and made their action during the day turn rather than the night turn.

9 hours ago, Alvron said:

@quillinthestars, did you open any PMs N7 or N8?  If so, with whom.

N8 hasn’t occurred yet? On N7 I opened a PM between myself and Steeldancer.

9 hours ago, WhiffleWaffles said:

Knights cannot self-target so that means the Knight role-claiming in the thread will just paint a target on their back and Link would basically have to out themselves unless Quill took a guess on who Link was and put them in a PM with this "confirmed Knight." The elims know who each other are, all they have to do now is guess which one of us is Link and take their shot. 

I agree that the Knight shouldn’t roleclaim. I find keeping them alive to be a higher priority at this point than keeping myself alive. But again, if someone wants to roleclaim as Link or pass on their suspicions as to who they think is Link, I can tell the Knight who to protect tonight. If I had any idea who Link is, this would be a whole lot easier. I’d like for us to make a move now, because the elim knows I’m not Link, and know they aren’t Link. Right now they have a 20% chance of randomly guessing who Link is. If we vote out someone from the village, those odds are only increasing. I don’t know about the rest of you, but that’s really not a risk I’d like to be taking.

If anyone wants a direct PM with me, feel free to ask and I’ll make it during the night turn. Or if you’re the postman, feel free to make it with me, since when I last requested you put me in with Attic. I’ve already spent my PM this turn, I’d planned to make it with Jondesu, but as they died I was left to make one with Yeet right as they were turned over to Mist yesterday morning.

[Ashbringer]

How is this Knight Confirmed?

[quillinthestars]

 

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

How is this Knight Confirmed?

Actions they’ve reported to me, including protection you Ashbringer

[Mist]

Have these actions been confirmed?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

25 minutes ago, quillinthestars said:

Actions they’ve reported to me, including protection you Ashbringer

The only way a knight's actions can be confirmed is if someone else tried to target the same person and got redirected. I don't think PMs can be redirected, so even if the 'knight's' actions for all seven cycles were released it's unlikely we'd be able to confirm any of them. If PMs can be redirected, there's a better chance. We definitely won't have Link claiming though.

[Mist]

I'm fairly sure PMs can't be redirected, because they're created as soon as the GMs are notified

[Ashbringer]

Aye. Anyone can lie about the actions that have been done, and there are no roles left that can confirm a redirect taking place except for Link (who cannot openly communicate for obvious reasons) and Urbosa (who seems to wish to stay silent and could still be an Elim role).

We still know Link's been killing Elims and not Elim kills getting redirected onto Elims, because Link's only missed a kill after turns where two villagers have died. A village Knight could explain why the apparent Elim kill decisions have been... strange to me. But there are other reasons for that is possible.

And N3 wouldn't happen just because of a Village Knight not protecting, it would need either an Elim Knight actively protecting Drake or Link for some reason deciding to murder TJ after being a very good shot every other day. 

Besides, there's only one available "confirmed" slot, which would be TJ's N1 scan. And with both TJ and Dannex dead I doubt there's any way for anyone to prove who that is. So the Knight is not confirmed Village, and I'm fairly certain they would be Elim. 

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, quillinthestars said:

 

Actions they’ve reported to me, including protection you Ashbringer

Yeah, with no way to prove that, it could be them trying to pocket you. That's happened to me in the past *sighs in AG4*. 
There WOULD be something to be said if, we could confirm that the elim kill happened on the same night as a confirmed redirect tonight or something. Then the knight would be cleared. I can't think of a way to necessarily confirm they're evil. So in my opinion, this subject isn't really going to get us anywhere as long as we can't prove things either way. (Because it's the day turn). 
After rereading some stuff, I'm still suspicious of Ashbringer so I'm leaving my vote there. I have other suspicions, which I'll probably confide in Quillin, since I trust her. 

[Alvron]

8 hours ago, quillinthestars said:

On N7 I opened a PM between myself and Steeldancer.

@Steeldancer, can you confirm a PM opened with Quill during N7?

[Ashbringer]

I'll be gone for work tonight, until... well, until about midnight (PST) to be honest. So please... don't... don't wait for me this time. I'll be back, but not for 7 hours... and I never got a chance to tell Kas to sleep so I'll just tell you all not to stay up waiting for me to post or whatever it is that happened last day turn.

Don't trust Quill, don't trust this Knight

Alvron and Steel are null

Trust Whiffle and Devotary

For now

Edit: forgot Mist... Mist is Null-Trust. Not sure which way it leans, but I don't want to kill them either way since they essentially can't be the last Elim. Although them being Quill's E!Knight would make some sense.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Ashbringer

[quillinthestars]

You know what, these have been some strong arguments, especially about role balancing. As I told Mist, nothing like rose-colored glasses to distract you from a lying friend. So with love, happy birthday Waffles. Sorry.

Edited July 15, 2021 by quillinthestars
Font correction

[StrikerEZ]

@Ashbringer @Steeldancer @Devotary of Spontaneity @Alvron @WhiffleWaffles @Mist @quillinthestars Here is your ~10.5 hour reminder to get any votes or actions in before the turn is over!

Also, on mobile, but the VC is currently 1 vote each on Ash, Waffles, and quill.

[WhiffleWaffles]

3 hours ago, quillinthestars said:

As I told Mist, nothing like rose-colored glasses to distract you from a lying friend.

Even if I were an elim, I wouldn't lie. You're confirmed one of our Postman, and we have another one out there. You were suspicious of Mist (Yeet) and now you trust them after one message. Therefore, I guess I'll put my vote for you. We're taking potshot votes again I guess. Not only that, but you wanted me to push for information and did not trust Alvron or Ashbringer. At one point I was suspicious of them but now I honestly don't know who my reads on anyone are at this point. 

I know you're a Postman, and there's another 1 left who is likely village too. You aren't Link, otherwise you'd have taken up my offer when I offered to protect you in order to keep our chain of information and alliance flowing. Therefore, here goes my vote: Quillinthestars.

[Mist]

I've been talking with Quill. I've been leaning towards trusting him, and I'm also planning for what to do next turn, if Waffles doesn't work out. I've looked through some individuals' posts (heh laid back yeah right oops :P), but not the whole thread yet.

6 elims seems likely to me, so 1 elim left. Plus stuff from Illwei (in thread) and others

Basically looking at role distribution

I'll be back in the morning before rollover, so my vote could change, but I figured I'd not procrastinate it.

[WhiffleWaffles]

18 minutes ago, Mist said:

I've been talking with Quill. I've been leaning towards trusting him, and I'm also planning for what to do next turn, if Waffles doesn't work out. I've looked through some individuals' posts (heh laid back yeah right oops :P), but not the whole thread yet.

6 elims seems likely to me, so 1 elim left. Plus stuff from Illwei (in thread) and others

Basically looking at role distribution

I'll be back in the morning before rollover, so my vote could change, but I figured I'd not procrastinate it.

Better start planning now. 

I didn't lie and I'm not lying now.

I am a Hyrulean Knight. That's my roleclaim and it's honest truth, which you'll likely find out tomorrow since I can see myself being voted for once Ash gets back from work later, seeing as Ash doesn't trust the Knight and I am the Knight. Ash, I know you don't trust the Knight and you trusted me and all I can ask for is your good faith in me and trust me. 

My response for Dannex being killed? I made an honest mistake with Dannex. I had accidentally taken my action during the day turn instead of the night turn, which I had double confirmed just tonight when I went to look at who I had defended since C1. 

I'm going to assume Quill is an Elim and having this role confirm from me and me supplying them with who I defended could've helped the elims out somehow. I'm no longer sharing who I defend if I survive this cycle. The only person we could 100% is Dannex, and Archer but they never role-claimed (iirc.) If Quill isn't an Elim, which I find hard to believe after he reached out to me randomly and said he that I was the only person he trusted, I'll be shocked. If this was the plan all along, I also wouldn't be surprised if you're an Elim too. 

Also, I'm going to bed so this is my last post for the night.

If I end up being voted out, Farwell and good luck. Link, whoever you are please be careful. Urbosa, if you're village, do your best to defend Link from the elims or being exe'd. Don't trust Quill, he's basically outed himself as an Elim if it takes one post to switch his trust. He planned to roleclaim me tonight in the thread and I agreed to it, in hopes Link would contact us. So especially to Link, don't trust him. 

Edited July 15, 2021 by WhiffleWaffles

[Ashbringer]

Hmm.

Well, I guess I need to try and spur conversations more often.

This… isn’t what I wanted, but we’re out of easy answers. Both Quill and WhiffleWaffles claim they haven’t been lying, and technically neither of them have to be. Could just be that unfortunate situation. However, I do think Quill was very quick to turn on you, and Mist’s support is similarly confusing. That PM has only been open, what, less than 48 hours? But a Knight is still a Knight, and while such mistakes could happen… unless there’s another Knight, Link would have to decided to up and murder Zelda / TJ. And the Elims would have to decide that Dannex was sufficiently exposed to attack him, which with 2 protectives out isn’t that strange… but everything here is setting off alarm bells and I don’t know if it’s because it’s unanticipated or otherwise.

@WhiffleWaffles, did you ever get contacted by / placed in a PM with Dannex? Or TJ, maybe, but mostly Dannex. Also when did Quill contact you? And lastly, do you think you ever sucessfully redirected a kill?

I’ll see if I can wake up in the morning (heh, morning…) and decide then. For now… this is all fishy, but two players hard sussing each other is a decent place to start.

(For those who keep track of such things, this is a scenario where I like the tie. Two suspicious individuals, most likely nothing to manip, and at the end of the day I’d like to know the alignment of both.)

[WhiffleWaffles]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

did you ever get contacted by / placed in a PM with Dannex? Or TJ, maybe, but mostly Dannex. Also when did Quill contact you? And lastly, do you think you ever sucessfully redirected a kill?

Holy moly I haven't been awake this early since I was a wee lass lol. Sleep schedule you shall be fixed. 

I never was placed in contact with Dannex. Quill had told me as a part of his trust with him that Dannex had been in contact with him and he opened PMs with Dannex and other players as requested and that unfortunate Dannex took that information with him to his grave. 

Quill contacted me on July 6th and it took a few days before I trusted them and we started an alliance. Then I roleclaimed to them. A lot of the reads Quill made, I trusted him on since he was right about purple and had no suspicious feelings about them. 

I have no idea if I have or not but by others comments I'm going to assume I haven't, otherwise it would show in a writeup. Each action I've taken has been meant with "you've successfully redirected any actions taken on this player." 

I trusted Quill enough and asked for input on who I should protect each night since. For the past few days he was suspicious of Yeet, who has been replaced by Mist. I find it alarming that from one message, he lost that trust he's told me he had since he contacted me and turned around on it. 

If I survived tonight I refuse to share who I protect anymore because after this I don't even know who I trust unless they can prove it. And even then Quill said he'd open any and all PM's with me to earn that. I was easily fooled. If Quill is an Elim, that likely was how they could know who to attack I guess. I'm going to assume him knowing I'm a Knight just gets me off the list of who Link can be, and gave them an easier chance to make a choice each night turn. 

Also, not quite sure what you mean in your second paragraph? But I did make a genuine mistake and it's been a punch to the gut ever since.

You trusted me before you found out I was a knight and I understand the reason you don't now, but Quill had turned so fast on me *after* he roleclaimed for me in the thread *and* trusted Mist and had no hesitation to vote for me despite their suspision of Mist, and you Ash. Why wouldn't he vote for you when he started to ask me to push for information from you and to keep you on my radar if he died? He could've easily gotten you out with one vote. I know Mist is a new player but that doesn't consider the fact that they replaced Yeet and he was suspicious of Yeet and you. Perhaps it's just some sort of tactic but I don't know. 

If I end up dead tomorrow from removal, you will all know what to do next. Good luck, village. O7 

[Steeldancer]

12 hours ago, Alvron said:

@Steeldancer, can you confirm a PM opened with Quill during N7?

Yes, I can confirm, and I can also confirm she opened it herself. That's why I trust her. 
Waffles, I instantly like you as a person, but in the current game state claiming as knight is dangerous. Plus, I 100% trust Quillin. Therefore, in order to protect Quillin I'm going to vote Waffles. 

[WhiffleWaffles]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Yes, I can confirm, and I can also confirm she opened it herself. That's why I trust her. 
Waffles, I instantly like you as a person, but in the current game state claiming as knight is dangerous. Plus, I 100% trust Quillin. Therefore, in order to protect Quillin I'm going to vote Waffles. 

Then my fate is sealed... Good luck to whoever Link is. O7 see you all in the aftermath or dead doc/thread. 

Of course claiming is dangerous. I trusted Quill and he said he'd keep it a secret in the thread and that role claiming was the best bet for village to win. 

Quill is the one who opened all my PMs with everyone btw. He's not the only Postman, however. Good luck y'all. 

Edited July 15, 2021 by WhiffleWaffles

[Steeldancer]

Just now, WhiffleWaffles said:

Then my fate is sealed... Good luck to whoever Link is. O7 see you all in the aftermath or dead doc/thread. 

Sorry, I feel bad. I just feel like I need to keep the person who is absolutely village alive over the person who's possibly evil, you know? 

[WhiffleWaffles]

Just now, Steeldancer said:

Sorry, I feel bad. I just feel like I need to keep the person who is absolutely village alive over the person who's possibly evil, you know? 

Don't feel bad it's apart of the game, that's the fun!

I just don't understand since I was likely the only person who could protect Link tonight. Here's hoping that Urbosa is also village and knows what's up. There's definitely 2 elims left. If Quill somehow isn't an Elim I'll be shocked. Mist supporting Quill without hesitation also spells elim. 

[Alvron]

Personally I think both Quill and Waffles are village.  So I propose a new target and yes, I know it's late in the cycle for this but it's the only thing to do when I think both are village.

Devotary.  Every interaction I have had with you has felt off this whole game.  There is nothing specific I can pin down but if I was a betting man, and I am, I would bet that you are an elim.  The only hing you have in your factor was your vote on Drake Day 2 but that was when they had a vote manipulation ability.  Like I said, not much to go on but I really don't like the current targets and you're the best chance of those left.

[quillinthestars]

15 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Personally I think both Quill and Waffles are village.  So I propose a new target and yes, I know it's late in the cycle for this but it's the only thing to do when I think both are village.

Devotary.  Every interaction I have had with you has felt off this whole game.  There is nothing specific I can pin down but if I was a betting man, and I am, I would bet that you are an elim.  The only hing you have in your factor was your vote on Drake Day 2 but that was when they had a vote manipulation ability.  Like I said, not much to go on but I really don't like the current targets and you're the best chance of those left.

I appreciate being recognized as village. It certainly was reckless of me to make the move on Waffles that I did, but I can’t take it back now. It was a spur of the moment turn, but I still trust her more than Mist or anyone else still alive in the game. I was inclined to trust Mist for a bit while being impulsive since they roleclaimed to me, but I’m happier to back things up at this point.

I’d be happy to take my vote off Waffles and join you in voting Devotary if you can give me one other good reason. Do you have a PM with them?

Edited July 15, 2021 by quillinthestars