Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

hol on quick math because we're at 15 not 16

Oh. Yes. My notes spreadsheets’ rows aren’t aligned. Awesome.

But yeah my guess still stands, maybe with a bit more leaning to 3 than before.

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But yeah my guess still stands, maybe with a bit more leaning to 3 than before.

My thing is it isn't a guaranteed Manip, so I'm not so sure about how that would affect distro

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

My thing is it isn't a guaranteed Manip, so I'm not so sure about how that would affect distro

*Reads that as “My thing isn’t guaranteed manip” and has to read the sentence a few times to figure out it’s not a claim*

Yeah, 3/15 is what, 20%, which I guess is on the low end of normal. Danfords is just a normal manip, which manip is never technically guaranteed unless it’s a passive double or something, and manip normally affects distro, no?

[---]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*Reads that as “My thing isn’t guaranteed manip” and has to read the sentence a few times to figure out it’s not a claim*

My thing isn't a guaranteed manip either, alas :pensive: 

I mean, It's not even a *chance* at being a manip, but- :P. 

EDIT:

Also, I have work tomorrow so I won't be on the thread until tomorrow night. I'm here all Thursday though, and then again I'll only be on in the ...evenings? nights? from Friday-Tuesday. if I'm still alive. 

It seems every single time I say something like this I get killed while I'm away though, so I'm just going to say please don't do that :P. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Ashbringer]

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

Might that be something our exalted Game Master @Elandera would tell us?

I dunno. I'd have to actually read the original game :P.

[---]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

if it does I don't think it matters much, tbh

Azmine

Edited April 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Azmine_king]

31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

With the current player count probably, what role would you think they would have?

24 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Azmine

?

[Araris Valerian]

I’ll throw a vote on Dannex for now. Somebody’s gotta die, and we might as well start figuring out who sooner rather than later.

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Might that be something our exalted Game Master @Elandera would tell us?

I dunno. I'd have to actually read the original game :P.

Image in the spoiler:

Spoiler

[Ashbringer]

Let's see... Random Bystander! How are you doing this fine *checks clock* evening!

[Quintessential]

So I somehow forgot this game existed xD

Thoughts so far:

Maybe this is paranoid but I'm really not liking Matrim right now because he tried (is trying?) to argue for 3 elims. I wouldn't think that was so weird, since we have 15 people and 4/15 is more than 25%, but he started arguing it when he thought there were 16 players--and 4 people is typically the number of elims for a 16 player game, regardless of guaranteed vote-manip roles and things like that. It just feels like a weird attempt to do the same thing that the QF48 team did, especially since it's coming from a player who (as village) should probably know better than to assume the smallest feasible number of elims is the correct one. 

In case it's not obvious, I'm assuming four elims unless proven otherwise  

 

Beyond that, Illwei seems normal (though sorry, voting me is not gonna help with your streak lol) and Ash's only posts were RP and theorizing about secret neutrals, which is... also normal for D1 Ash. So null on both of them.

 

Araris... okay okay so I know that last LG I was super convinced Araris was elim and then it turned out he wasn't, but this time I swear there is actually something off about him. Like, he threw a basically random vote on Dannex (which is fine), but then felt the need to justify it by stating the obvious, that "somebody has to die"? We all know that, and he specifically has expressed that stance so many times before, and nobody was gonna blame him for random-voting when Illwei had already done it twice. It just seems super self-conscious to me. So I have my eye on him as well.

 

No read on Azmine yet : P

Edited April 28, 2021 by Quintessential

[Azmine_king]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Maybe this is paranoid but I'm really not liking Matrim right now because he tried (is trying?) to argue for 3 elims. I wouldn't think that was so weird, since we have 15 people and 4/15 is more than 25%, but he started arguing it when he thought there were 16 players--and 4 people is typically the number of elims for a 16 player game, regardless of guaranteed vote-manip roles and things like that. It just feels like a weird attempt to do the same thing that the QF48 team did, especially since it's coming from a player who (as village) should probably know better than to assume the smallest feasible number of elims is the correct one. 

Would it really be that much of a stretch to assume maybe a lower scum count and throw in a neutral, ill be honest, I haven't read the game this was based off of, or any other SE game so I don't know whats common.

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Azmine_king said:

Would it really be that much of a stretch to assume maybe a lower scum count and throw in a neutral, ill be honest, I haven't read the game this was based off of, or any other SE game so I don't know whats common.

Generally if there are secret roles, we're told that they exist (just not what they are). Even if it is possible that there are secret neutrals, we don't know for sure, and it's dangerous to assume a low number of elims when a higher number is possible. Matrim in particular should know this: in QF48 (my first game) he and I were elims and we won primarily because the village assumed there were fewer of us than there were. Since then, he and I (and most other people) have generally been careful to assume the highest reasonable number of elims, which is why it strikes me as so odd that he's not doing that here.

[Azmine_king]

7 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Generally if there are secret roles, we're told that they exist (just not what they are). Even if it is possible that there are secret neutrals, we don't know for sure, and it's dangerous to assume a low number of elims when a higher number is possible. Matrim in particular should know this: in QF48 (my first game) he and I were elims and we won primarily because the village assumed there were fewer of us than there were. Since then, he and I (and most other people) have generally been careful to assume the highest reasonable number of elims, which is why it strikes me as so odd that he's not doing that here.

Alright, thats more reasonable to have a case on him in that respect. Im going to assume that LYLO/MYLO is not announced based on how much the distribution seems to matter. Either way, but more so if not, I don't see much purpose on theorizing distribution till later in the game, maybe when we have more information on what roles have flipped. Obviously the game still just started so there's not much else to talk about but the sooner we can actually scumhunt instead of worrying about that.

[Quintessential]

3 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Alright, thats more reasonable to have a case on him in that respect. Im going to assume that LYLO/MYLO is not announced based on how much the distribution seems to matter. Either way, but more so if not, I don't see much purpose on theorizing distribution till later in the game, maybe when we have more information on what roles have flipped. Obviously the game still just started so there's not much else to talk about but the sooner we can actually scumhunt instead of worrying about that.

Ah, yeah this is a meta thing: generally here, games start with distribution and rules discussion instead of an RQS/RVS stage. It's just a way for us to get reads on each other, based on things like who proposed good plans around mechanics, what everyone thinks the number of elims is, who is avoiding giving hard opinions, and so on. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

Im mindmelding with Quinn on Araris lmao. Just the off thing. We'll see how things go though.

@Archer @Gears @Flyingbooks

Hows it a-goin this fine morning. Im cold. 

I have work today, so uhhhhhh expect me back at uhhhhhhh, say...2pm pst. If theres not another page by then ill be dissapointed in you, quinn and Mat :P.

Also, if people wanna PM me... :P. Im safe, i swear ;-;. Im not gonna be PMing people unless i have a specific reason so- 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I have work today, so uhhhhhh expect me back at uhhhhhhh, say...2pm pst. If theres not another page by then ill be dissapointed in you, Quinn and Mat :P. 

Oh c'mon we're not the only active players in this game! Archer's here too! : P

[---]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Oh c'mon we're not the only active players in this game! Archer's here too! : P

Archer usually posts less in LGs though, but true :P. 

[Archer]

Hi all. My plan this game is use PMs for RP while doing analysis in thread. We'll see how well that goes. 

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

First, that Silence isn’t technically confirmed village but both flavor-wise and mechanic-wise I’m assuming they are. It’d be funny if there were multiple Silences though.

The Shade mechanic has the chance that an elim kill will backfire. I wouldn’t be surprised if an elim has either Silver Dust or Silver Bones, but it still might be better for anyone with a Crossbow to shoot sooner rather than later. It feels strange for me to be advocating for that, but it both lessens the Crossbowman’s chance of dying to Shades and increases the chance of the elim kill misfiring. I wouldn’t shoot N1, but I wouldn’t wait until endgame either.

This is probably just my WGG tinfoil-loving brain speaking, but do we think that the elims are less likely to do a WGG because of Broken Survivors, or does that just turn into an IKYK too quickly?  

I also wonder how the PM spying mechanic works, never played a game with it before. Guess there's only one way to find out.

Edit: Oh yeah, welcome to all the new people! Glad to have you

Double edit: Forgot to mention my numbers guess :P. Four splits quite nicely- exactly 25%- but that might be a bit high factoring in the roles the elims might have, especially considering Danforth's manip. So I'd say 3-4 depending on their roles.

I agree Silence is likely village, and that the elims probably have some sort of protection. As said, Mat appears to have thought this was a 16 person game and decided rounding down made sense with the roles available. I disagree, but I understand how they came to that conclusion. They appear to have read the rules a while ago and had a list of thoughts to add ready on their mental backburner. After writing about the elims' possible protection abilities, they had that in mind and had forgotten about the villages' many protection roles and items. As a double edit add-in, I don't think it was a clever elim ploy to make us underestimate the number of people on their team. Now, they later stood by the guess, but also later acknowledged that 20% seems low. I can see how v!Mat came to the conclusion he did, then realized his mistake and changed his mind, so I don't think it's necessarily an elim slip.

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Does anyone think this game will have (secret) neutrals? The original game had a few, and it would balance a 3-Elim team with a vote mover role.

 

The LG60 distribution was 3e:8v:3n for a 14 person game. One neutral was eventually converted to the elim team. Notably, Elandera advertised the existence of the neutral alignment in that game and listed the potential roles. She didn’t disclose some of the secret mechanics of the game, which mostly involved immunity or susceptibility to certain actions, but was fairly forthright overall about roles’ existence.

Reading the GMs Aftermath notes, I think she disliked the number of neutrals in the game and how some people got shafted by the rules and RNG, concluding, “I would probably make the game a little less role-madness in favor of items and actions for everyone.”

Therefore, I believe this game likely has no neutrals. We may have vanillas, but everyone should have some sort of action they can reliably take, either through a role or an item.

My distribution guess would be 4e:11v. We have action scans that can catch elim kills, an item that can block them, and two roles that do the same. That is enough to warrant a 29% elim distribution.  

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’ll throw a vote on Dannex for now. Somebody’s gotta die, and we might as well start figuring out who sooner rather than later.

I agree with Quinn that an activity poke from Araris is different from their usual opening foray. Their stated reasoning allows them to easily retract it later, and if they are an elim, move to defensively vote.

Giving them the benefit of the doubt, I suspect they simply didn’t have enough to base a stab vote on. I agree that we should get votes flying early to give us more information. And Dannex isn’t an entirely cowardly choice to poke; they have a history of being MLed early, but going down fighting in a way that draws attention to their attackers the next cycle. I’ve got time to keep notes this game, so I’m marking this down, but I understand it enough not to throw a vote on Araris.

18 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Alright, thats more reasonable to have a case on him in that respect. Im going to assume that LYLO/MYLO is not announced based on how much the distribution seems to matter. Either way, but more so if not, I don't see much purpose on theorizing distribution till later in the game, maybe when we have more information on what roles have flipped. Obviously the game still just started so there's not much else to talk about but the sooner we can actually scumhunt instead of worrying about that.

Based on their language, Azmine is an experienced mafia player. Welcome! To answer your question, in SE, exlo is not announced, and has no mechanical effect on the game. Best way to scumhunt is to be accusatory, so if you had to vote right now, who would you pick? (So you know, no vote isn't an option in these games; someone is always selected for execution in the Day.) 

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hows it a-goin this fine morning. Im cold. 

I actually got a sunburn yesterday, it was so warm. I'm about to PM everyone with an RP character, so I gotchu.

*

@Elandera I have some questions about PM listening.

If a players uses Listen at the Door, do they receive a transcript of the requested PM during rollover, or immediately?

If a player uses a Hidden Transcript, is the player added to the PM, or given a transcript? Are they told who was involved in the PM?

Are players allowed to make multiple PMs with the same person over the course of the day, and if so, would PM spying actions provide read outs of all of them, or just one

[---]

Anyways

Time for me to start Illwei's Foolproof Elim Finding Methods

@vonnegut

If you were about to play a game of badminton against @Szeth_Pancakes, who from this playerlist would you pick? Dont overthink it :P.

Szeth same question at you, but reversed :P. 

[Quintessential]

Great @Archer feels weird to me too... and I was hoping this game would be like QF52 which we lost because I got hard-pocketed by an elim

Things about Archer:

• his point about Mat is... well, it doesn't change my mind but I can see how he'd take that stance. Though if Mat flips elim I will definitely look more closely at Archer.
• I agree with his thoughts on the distribution
• However, then we get to Araris: Archer says that he agrees that Araris's explanation for his vote is odd, and looks like an elim trying to make a retraction easier, but then doesn't vote him, and instead more or less logics his way out of suspecting Araris at all. 
• And then he tells Azmine that the best way to find elims is to vote someone (as well as commenting that getting votes going early is a good thing), but despite having expressed at least some suspicion of someone (Araris), Archer isn't voting anyone.
• So uh... yeah now I'm side-eyeing/tinfoiling an Archer/Araris/(Mat?) team  

Also maybe it's just that Azmine actually knows what they're doing and is talking a fair amount, both of which are pleasant surprises, but I'm gut reading them village at this point  

Edit: hey wait or maybe the team is Archer/Araris/Azmine/Ash! We could theoretically have the A team for real this game xD

Edited April 28, 2021 by Quintessential

[---]

Just now, Quintessential said:

his point about Mat is... well, it doesn't change my mind but I can see how he'd take that stance. Though if Mat flips elim I will definitely look more closely at Archer.

I personally think its too outright defensive. I'd be more suspicious of him attacking you, not jusy saying he agrees with Matrim. So sure, could be an Elim, but not something I'd look into roght away if Mat flipped

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Also maybe it's just that Azmine actually knows what they're doing and is talking a fair amount, both of which are pleasant surprises, but I'm gut reading them village at this point

Azmine? Talking? Being read village? What's this nonsense.

[PizzaPower55]

2 hours ago, Quintessential said:

So I somehow forgot this game existed xD

same, hello everyone

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Elandera said:

Image in the spoiler:

  Reveal hidden contents

Of course, why am I surprised  

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

[1] Maybe this is paranoid but I'm really not liking Matrim right now because he tried (is trying?) to argue for 3 elims. I wouldn't think that was so weird, since we have 15 people and 4/15 is more than 25%, but he started arguing it when he thought there were 16 players--and 4 people is typically the number of elims for a 16 player game, regardless of guaranteed vote-manip roles and things like that. It just feels like a weird attempt to do the same thing that the QF48 team did, especially since it's coming from a player who (as village) should probably know better than to assume the smallest feasible number of elims is the correct one. 

[2] Beyond that, Illwei seems normal (though sorry, voting me is not gonna help with your streak lol) and Ash's only posts were RP and theorizing about secret neutrals, which is... also normal for D1 Ash. So null on both of them.

 

[3] Araris... okay okay so I know that last LG I was super convinced Araris was elim and then it turned out he wasn't, but this time I swear there is actually something off about him. Like, he threw a basically random vote on Dannex (which is fine), but then felt the need to justify it by stating the obvious, that "somebody has to die"? We all know that, and he specifically has expressed that stance so many times before, and nobody was gonna blame him for random-voting when Illwei had already done it twice. It just seems super self-conscious to me. So I have my eye on him as well.

[1] I think you're overstating how much I was talking about a 3 person team. I think there are four elims, it makes the most sense, that's what I'm going with. I just also want(ed) to consider all the possibilities; stating my thoughts and making clear what is possible is kinda the point D1 :P. If that wasn't clear enough, I believe there to be four elims. I just wouldn't be surprised if there were three with some good roles or something.

[2] Normal = Null read?

[3] This seems to me like a large read from only one very short post that seemed relatively normal to me, but idk. I've never been able to read Araris early on.

48 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Generally if there are secret roles, we're told that they exist (just not what they are). Even if it is possible that there are secret neutrals, we don't know for sure, and it's dangerous to assume a low number of elims when a higher number is possible. Matrim in particular should know this: in QF48 (my first game) he and I were elims and we won primarily because the village assumed there were fewer of us than there were. Since then, he and I (and most other people) have generally been careful to assume the highest reasonable number of elims, which is why it strikes me as so odd that he's not doing that here.

Maybe it was cause it was your first game, but I don't remember QF48 that well, that much, it's just like any other game I played five months ago, it happened and that's about it. I don't constantly compare every other ruleset to it or anything  It didn't even cross my mind until you mentioned it.

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

My distribution guess would be 4e:11v. We have action scans that can catch elim kills, an item that can block them, and two roles that do the same. That is enough to warrant a 29% elim distribution.  

Good point about the action scans, I had *cough* forgotten about them.

19 minutes ago, Archer said:

I agree with Quinn that an activity poke from Araris is different from their usual opening foray. Their stated reasoning allows them to easily retract it later, and if they are an elim, move to defensively vote.

Also a good point it was an activity poke, or at least not on someone who's posted. I don't think Araris normally does that? Idk how pointless that detail is though.

6 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

• his point about Mat is... well, it doesn't change my mind but I can see how he'd take that stance. Though if Mat flips elim I will definitely look more closely at Archer.

Pfft like if me and Archer both rolled elim we wouldn't sus each other like normal. (Or, well, me sus him at least :P) Speaking of which, I read that Archer post as village! Subject to change. Probably will. Sigh.

And isn't it a bit... early to be making full team guesses? Or at least partial team guesses? Maybe I'm not one to talk but we're barely 12 hours into D1 :P.

I'll poke Jondesu again, this time with the vote actually meaning something.