Long Game 76: At the Forests of Madness

[Mat he/him]

If there is an elim on the Randby train, my bet right now would be Jondesu. He jumped on later than everyone else iirc and seems to be pushing against the idea there might be elims there at all. Though I don't really remember what else he's said.

3 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I assume no one discovered anything by Listening at the Door during the day cycle or we’d have heard by now, right? Just reviewing the rules and reminding myself what can be done.

I used it on Illwei/Quinn mainly just to see if they have a PM- scanning for e/e, that kind of thing. (They do.) It's probably not super effective, as Archer already pointed something like this out mid-D1, but maybe I'll find something

Instead, they just talked about me  Apparently it was suspicious how cheerful I was being last game, what's that all about, huh?  

[---]

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Instead, they just talked about me  Apparently it was suspicious how cheerful I was being last game, what's that all about, huh?  

Smh if youre gonna spy, you could at least do it like Quinn did to me and Az and message me about it privately :P. 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Smh if youre gonna spy, you could at least do it like Quinn did to me and Az and message me about it privately :P. 

This whole exchange is leading me to believe that if Mat is elim, then Quinn and Illwei are too.

[---]

Just now, Szeth_Pancakes said:

This whole exchange is leading me to believe that if Mat is elim, then Quinn and Illwei are too.

Thats

A bizzare take

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Smh if youre gonna spy, you could at least do it like Quinn did to me and Az and message me about it privately :P. 

I thought about it :P. But Jondesu's question provided an opportunity.

1 minute ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

This whole exchange is leading me to believe that if Mat is elim, then Quinn and Illwei are too.

That team would be insane.

[---]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

That team would be insane.

In. What way. 

That team would be a mess :P. 

[Jondesu he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Thats

A bizzare take

Methinks thou dost protest too much?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

In. What way. 

That team would be a mess :P. 

Precisely :P.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Thats

A bizzare take

Why? If mat was elim, he wouldn’t have been scanning for e/e. He would only lie about this if Illwei and Quinn were on board.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Why? If mat was elim, he wouldn’t have been scanning for e/e. He would only lie about this if Illwei and Quinn were on board.

There's no reason e!Mat couldn't scan v!me/v!Illwei's PM to get information, and then state in-thread that the reason he did it was to scan for e/e pairs. I don't follow why we'd all have to be elim for that to work >> (in case it's not obvious, this is not helping my read on Szeth : P)

[---]

6 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Why? If mat was elim, he wouldn’t have been scanning for e/e. He would only lie about this if Illwei and Quinn were on board.

I mean, i guess big brain play, but if i was an elim id definitely be checking for other peoples pms. Quinn and i as more active analysers would matter to Mat, especially my opinion of him, because of how easily both of us seem to pocket the other :P. 

So yeah i guess all or none makes sense, none meaning not quinn and i. So if mat flips elim ill trust quinn more, and if quinn flips elim ill trust mat more. :P. 

[Quintessential she/her]

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So yeah i guess all or none makes sense, none meaning not quinn and i. So if mat flips elim ill trust quinn more, and if quinn flips elim ill trust mat more. :P. 

And same goes for me with Illwei ig. If either of Mat/Illwei flips elim, I'll trust the other more. 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

38 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

There's no reason e!Mat couldn't scan v!me/v!Illwei's PM to get information, and then state in-thread that the reason he did it was to scan for e/e pairs. I don't follow why we'd all have to be elim for that to work >> (in case it's not obvious, this is not helping my read on Szeth : P)

Ah ok. I didn't think of that.

What's your read on me?

[Gears]

"I quite enjoy the notes made by the Scribe."
The first order of business is to say.
The next: This Ruby X has offered nay
Of information we so seek to find.
A summary of votes from the last time,
Though prosody may hinder this today.
I hope that words in sonnet form will stay
As comprehensible as are for I.

The first is cast by Illwei on le Quinn
In hopes that it will keep their broken streak.
The next is also Wei on new Azmine,
No reasoning that I can find and seek.
Araris throws a Stab Vote™ at Dan in
What seems quite standard, nary interest piqued.

 

The Bringer of the Ash stabs at the Gem,
Then Lumi votes on Matrim for a wrong
Conclusion; hear incomprehension's song.
Then next a dearth of votes 'til moment when
Mateo pokes Jondesu. After then,
Quinn votes Araris for their vote along
With bits of tone. Yet more votes before long,
With Wei on Dan for meta. Anger sent.

The Pancake votes for Quinn on gutted cod.
Then Danex votes to strike at the odd Wei.
The Azmine whacks at Szeth with a great rod,
And Dannex's vote on Wei goes away.
Le Matrim finds the Danex sashay quite odd,
And Vonnie votes for Szeth, they choose to say.

 

At sunrise, Quinn retracts from Valar's An,
Citations of confusion from the lips,
And Matrim takes back that Dan's punch with a fist
And Azmine takes back their Szeth whack of hands.
The Wei stabs at the Ruby with a pan;
Araris follows close enough to kiss.
Quinn piles on the Gemstone in a twist
And Gears declares a secret vote at hand.

The Arbalist decides to follow Gears
In what can only be described as rude.
Jondesu hops upon the Gemstone cheer
(To Archer: Yes, I think I have to sue.)
The Wei takes back the vote on Ruby here,
And slides it onto Gears (That does work too.)

 

I think the Wei-Araris is of note
For voting on the person who was gone
In quick succession, I know not the odds,
But seems odd when two were such alone.

I shall soon drop in activeness a bit
And expect a lower quality of Wit,
For finals fast approach and I do fear
That time may not allow me to be here.

[danex he/him]

FYI I am going camping for the next 24-ish hours and I don’t know if I’ll have connection or not. Adiós.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I Listened At Door, and learned Illwei and Gears do not have a PM. Not sure what to make of that.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

What's your read on me?

Honestly, not great right now.

Last turn, you said you had gut on Araris but never voted him, then said you were suspicious of me too after a reread for nothing more than being cheerful and joking (both of which are just... me things. Most recent example would be LG75, where Araris himself said I was too cheerful. I was village : P). All that's fine, since you're new and wouldn't know--and in fact you even asked if that was normal for me--but after someone else said it was normal, you responded with a vote on me anyway. 

So like, you had two main suspects, me and Araris. Your suspicion on both of us was based mostly on tone. You'd been told that my tone was normal for me, while a couple of people had expressed that Araris's tone was off for him. And yet you voted me. Why?

You also said you supported the Randby exe, but didn't vote for Randby--which feels to me almost like you knew how she was going to flip, and didn't want to tie yourself to a misexe--and you didn't want you or Dannex to be voted off because of activity, but were just fine with voting me even though I'm more active than either of you. Your explanation was that I was suspicious, because I was quick to accuse Araris and I was trying to cover up my attack. The cover-up thing was, I assume, the cheerfulness--which, again, you'd already been told was normal for me. That's not me trying to cover up an attack, that's just how I talk sometimes (well, how I type anyway). I can get serious but I'm not always like that. And you thought Araris was sus too, at the beginning, so I don't see why you would think it's so weird that I did. 

Basically, I'm definitely biased on this but your suspicion of me and vote on me last cycle looked really weird to me, especially given that Araris was also an option and you chose to ignore him despite his being your original top suspect. It looks a little to me like an attempt to distance from a teammate without actually voting them, or an attempt to do exactly what you accused me of doing with Araris--attack him but cover it up. 

Also just tone in general, ig. I'd be willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on that one, since you're new to this site and to forum mafia in general, but the other stuff makes me less inclined to do that.

...I did not intend for this to be so long. Sorry. I may or may not be taking my headache out on you and my computer keyboard : P

Edited April 30, 2021 by Quintessential
word order

[---]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I Listened At Door, and learned Illwei and Gears do not have a PM. Not sure what to make of that.

Ill tell you what to make of that

I dont want to have to decipher more poems than i already have to :P. 

Again, Ash, im not really PMing anyone :P. 

[Archer he/him]

Long summary post, with some light analysis, for those who like raw data:

Spoiler

Page Two:

.Quinn: Illwei (poke)

Page Three:

Quinn: Illwei (boredom)

.Azmine: Illwei (poke)

.Dannex: Araris (poke)

.Randby: Ashbringer (poke)

.Matrim: Quinn (For theorizing small elim team)

Sus!Araris: Quinn (For saying “I’ll throw a vote on Dannex for now. Somebody’s gotta die, and we might as well start figuring out who sooner rather than later.” -Araris)

Null!Ashbringer, Illwei, Azmine: Quinn (nothing objectionable, was discussing every poster so far)

Notable quotable: “Im not gonna be PMing people unless i have a specific reason so” -Illwei

[My theoretical elim profile is that they might avoid PMs]

Null!Mat, Araris: Archer (disagrees with Quinn)

V!Azmine: Quinn (gut based on exchange)

Sus!Archer: Quinn (for defending Araris and Mat)

Null!Archer: Illwei (disagrees with Quinn’s read)

Notable quotable: “I think you're overstating how much I was talking about a 3 person team. I think there are four elims, it makes the most sense, that's what I'm going with.” -Mat

[If you read what they said, this isn’t accurate.]

Null!Araris: Mat (Disagrees with Quinn)

V!Archer: Mat

.Jondesu: Mat

Page Four:

Sus!Mat, Araris: Azmine (stretching)

V!Illwei: Azmine

Matrim: Quinn (accepts Mat’s defence)

.Araris: Quinn (over opening post)

V!Azmine: Quinn (strengthens assessment)

V!Azmine: Matrim

[Assessments are based purely on gut]

Null!Araris: Archer (disagrees with Quinn)

Notable quotable: “I actually felt kind of limited in who I was comfortable voting for in that post… I actually felt kind of limited in who I was comfortable voting for in that post.” -Araris

Page Five

Notable quotable:

“Anyway, what’s the consensus on voting? Is there one?” -Szeth

“Araris seems to be the most agreed upon so far.” -Azmine

“We're only so far in though, and the only thing that doesnt sit right for me with araris is the specific wording of his first post. “ -Illwei

“Ok, I’ve read through the thread, and Araris is the one who currently feels most suspicious. I think that we’re far from any sort of proof, though, so I’ll wait a bit before voting.” -Szeth

Sus!Araris: Azmine

Null!Araris: Illwei

Sus!Araris: Szeth

Sus!Araris: Dannex (significantly watered it down)

V!Araris: Illwei (because people have been suspecting them)

.Dannex: Illwei (when they asked Dannex about the rules, Dannex had no thoughts about them)

[I actually understand this vote now. Dannex was being pretty non-committal. But Dannex did specifically ask for reasons, and Illwei posted about other stuff for an hour before finally explaining]

Sus!Araris: Ashbringer (hedgy agreement that first post seemed off)

V!Quinn: Araris (“they seem normal”)

.Quinn: Szeth

.Illwei: Dannex (for failing to explain their vote on them)

Page Six

.Szeth: Azmine (asked by Araris to vote, later said it was a reaction fish)

.Illwei: Archer (didn’t understand their vote on Dannex)

Notable quotable:

“Actual real VC (probably):
Dannex (2): Araris, Illwei
Randby (1): Ash
Jondesu (1): Matrim
Araris (1): Quinn
Quinn (1): Szeth
Illwei (2): Dannex, Archer
Szeth (1): Azmine” -Quinn

[At this point, we have a good spread of votes. It’s unclear who will be the eventual exe candidate, and it’s likely at least one elim has a vote on them. They should be nervous]

V!Araris: Mat (“Anyway- lotta people jumping on this. I'm leaning towards Illwei's statement that there's a whole lot of attention here really fast and that probably means Araris is village”)

Null!Dannex: Mat (Says not enough reason to exe)

Illwei: Dannex (felt stonewalled, but vote wasn’t getting any answers from Illwei)

Notable quotable: “If you PM me this game, I'll respond, but don't expect me to start PMs with you” -Quinn

Page Seven

Notable quotable: “Matim’s Dice, I’m here, I’m not a good vote target, and while I appreciate a good poke vote, perhaps you can move it elsewhere now?” -Jondesu

.Quinn: Jondesu (“that quick vote with seemingly good at first glance but then questionable reasoning… makes me wonder”)

Jondesu: Mat (by request)

.Dannex: Mat (for removing vote so quickly)

Notable quotable: “Although maybe because Elim!Me doesn't like to be as quippish. .. a lot of small random posts with little meaning besides jokes or communication because I have the time to make them.” -Ashbringer

[Interesting self-assessment. Ashbringer, and to a lesser extent, Araris have so far leaned into safe conversation topics, like meta discussion, while avoiding leveling too many accusations or non-poke votes. They’ve been most substantive about unobjectionable content.]

Page Eight

Sus!Mat, Szeth: Vonnegut (asked a feeler question and based reads on what they got in response, Mat seemed cagey, Szeth seemed too light-hearted

Notable quotable: “im too lazy to read this [Gears post], can someone tell me if theres anything worth noting here” -Pizza

[They imply they’re following along with the rest of the thread, but it’s notable that they’ve been quiet]

Sus!Jondesu, Quinn: Archer (for avoiding PMs)

Page Nine

.Szeth: Vonnegut (attitude)

Araris: Quinn

Dannex: Mat (still suspects, but doesn’t want to exe them D1 again)

Sus!Szeth: Mat (tone)

Notable Quotable: “Dannex (2): Araris, Illwei
Randby (1): Ash
Quinn (2): Szeth, Jondesu
Illwei (1): Archer
Szeth (2): Azmine, Vonnegut” -Mat

[Since Page Six, Szeth and Quinn have picked up a vote, while Illwei, Araris, and Jondesu have all shed one.]

Szeth: Azmine

Dannex: Illwei

.Randby: Illwei

Dannex: Araris

.Randby: Araris (no vote)

.Randby: Quinn (guilt-free self-pres)

.Flyingbooks: Gears (mechanics testing)

Null!Randby: Dannex (concern about CW)

Null!Randby: Mat (concern about CW)

Sus!Gears: Mat (general vibe check)

Null!Gears: Quinn

Okay with killing!Randby: Szeth

Null!Dannex: Szeth

Page Ten

Sus!Quinn: Szeth (reiterated)

Illwei: Archer (feels bad exing them D1)

.Flyingbooks: Archer (preferred inactive exe)

Sus!Mat: Illlwei (for no vote)

Quinn: Jondesu (convinced by counter argument)

.Randby: Jondesu (contribution crusade)

Randby: Illwei (smelled a ML coming)

V!Ashbringer: Illwei (question about neutrals)

Null!Araris: Illwei (understood first post)

Sus!Dannex, Quinn, Szeth: Illwei (vote on them, lack of PMs, vibes)

Sus!Szeth: Quinn (agrees)

V!Randby: Illwei

Page Eleven

Sus!Quinn: Illwei (willing to CW toward them because they seem to be shying from a fight)

V!Illwei: Quinn

V!Mat: Illwei

.Gears: Illwei

Conclusions

Obviously, the late-Day vote shift takes the teeth out of votes, but here’s a breakdown of stated opinions and votes anyway: (may have mistakes, I put names in the wrong places several times, hopefully I caught it all)

Spoiler

Players	Voted	Sussed	Nulled	Villaged
Vonnegut	Szeth	Mat, Szeth
Szeth_Pancakes	Quinn	Araris, Randby*, Quinn	Dannex
Azmine_king	Szeth, none	Mat, Araris, Araris		Illwei
Jondesu	Quinn, Randby
Araris Valerian	Dannex, Randby			Quinn
Random Bystander
Dannex	Illwei, none	Araris	Randby
Archer	Illwei, Flyingbooks	Jondesu, Quinn	Mat, Araris, Araris
Illwei	Quinn, Azmine, Dannex, Randby, Gears	Mat, Dannex, Quinn, Szeth, Quinn	Archer, Araris, Araris	Araris, Ashbringer, Randby, Mat
Quintessential	Mat, Araris, Randby	Araris, Archer, Szeth	Ashbringer, Illwei, Azmine, Gears	Azmine, Azmine, Illwei
Gears	Flyingbooks
Matrim's Dice	Jondesu, Dannex, none	Szeth	Araris, Dannex, Randby	Archer, Azmine, Araris
Flyingbooks
Ashbringer	Randby	Araris

Probably Not Elim Pairs

-Illwei and Araris for ninjaing each other with Randby votes: TWTBAW

-Vonnegut and Szeth because Szeth was a legitimate train and they stayed on them

-Azmine and Araris because they directed suspicion towards them at a dangerous time for Araris

-Jondesu and Quinn because he voted for her late in the game, when that train was still possible

-Dannex and Illwei for attacking each other

-Quinn and Araris because she spent a long time sussing him

-Illwei gave up on their Quinn poke because they got tired of waiting for them to come back. If they had a doc, I’m sure they’d have coordinated better and she’d have stuck with it

Flying Under the Radar:

-Ashbringer has been active, but avoided much fighting.

-Vonnegut has asked a lot of feeler questions, but avoided much scrutiny.

-PizzaPower hasn’t said much of substance.

-Flyingbooks was late to the party and has yet to catch up.

-Gears hasn't been meaningfully sussed much yet. (Gears and Araris don't have a PM, by the way, found that out last turn)

Suspicions

-Ashbringer has been playing high visibility, low aggression

-Szeth has been sheeping the consensus

-Jondesu was eager to get Mat’s poke off their back, and voted Randby

-Illwei’s questioning the Randby CW felt genuine, but Mat’s reaction seemed less so

-I think the Randby CW was village led, but I suspect the elims didn’t mind it because it made the exe more predictable. Quinn seemed relieved to hop on it.

-I thought Araris would stick to his guns instead of CC

Notable Quotables (isolated)

Spoiler

 

Notable quotable: “Im not gonna be PMing people unless i have a specific reason so” -Illwei

 

Notable quotable: “I think you're overstating how much I was talking about a 3 person team. I think there are four elims, it makes the most sense, that's what I'm going with.” -Mat

 

Notable quotable:

“Anyway, what’s the consensus on voting? Is there one?” -Szeth

“Araris seems to be the most agreed upon so far.” -Azmine

“We're only so far in though, and the only thing that doesnt sit right for me with araris is the specific wording of his first post. “ -Illwei

“Ok, I’ve read through the thread, and Araris is the one who currently feels most suspicious. I think that we’re far from any sort of proof, though, so I’ll wait a bit before voting.” -Szeth

 

Notable quotable: “If you PM me this game, I'll respond, but don't expect me to start PMs with you” -Quinn

 

Notable quotable: “Matim’s Dice, I’m here, I’m not a good vote target, and while I appreciate a good poke vote, perhaps you can move it elsewhere now?” -Jondesu

 

Notable quotable: “Although maybe because Elim!Me doesn't like to be as quippish. .. a lot of small random posts with little meaning besides jokes or communication because I have the time to make them.” -Ashbringer

 

Notable quotable: “im too lazy to read this [Gears post], can someone tell me if theres anything worth noting here” -Pizza

 

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

... how am I simultaneously "playing high visibility" and "flying under the radar"?

It feels accurate, seeing as I've played two games in a row with no votes on me until outing, but it's... something's weird there.

[Jondesu he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... how am I simultaneously "playing high visibility" and "flying under the radar"?

It feels accurate, seeing as I've played two games in a row with no votes on me until outing, but it's... something's weird there.

I can vote for you if I makes you feel better. Not saying I actually suspect you, but if you’re worried…

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well I really am Village this time so go for it 

... wait a minute.

[Quintessential she/her]

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Again, Ash, im not really PMing anyone :P. 

Except Az 

@Archer

• Szeth only had the most votes when they were tied with me and Dannex. e!Vonne could easily have felt that e!Szeth was safe and that the vote was worth it for distancing.
• Ash hasn't been... all that... active? Besides which, the only game I can remember him not flying under the radar was MR47, when he logicked his way into a pool with 3/4 of the elim team in it using just the C1 kill.
• Vonne is new to this forum and new to forum mafia with complex mechanics, so feeler questions without providing super solid opinions makes sense imo.
• When has Pizza ever said anything of substance?
• Books being inactive/behind is nothing new.
• Yeah what is up with you saying Ash is both flying under the radar and playing high visibility?
• Szeth has not only been sheeping the consensus, but they haven't been voting with it, just supporting it verbally. (this one's an addition, not a criticism  I agree with you here).
• I was relieved to hop on the Randby train because I was worried I would die, and I had moral objections to the previous alternatives. I'd have self-presed on one of them eventually if it came to that, but I didn't want to, so it was nice to see an option who wasn't new and who doesn't usually die super early.
• What does CC mean?
• What are the notable quotables for?

[Jondesu he/him]

6 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

What does CC mean?

Contribution Crusade

[---]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Ash hasn't been... all that... active?

Ash has the 4th highest post count, doesnt he?