Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[STINK]

ok but this is LG74 and that was LG72

Different games innit

[Quintessential]

6 minutes ago, STINK said:

Different games innit

Are they though? 

Araris Maill

Since apparently I'm an exe option now, I figure it's probably not wise to leave my vote sitting out there all by itself on Araris : P 

[---]

Maill

Danex

@Dannex

[danex]

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Maill

Danex

@Dannex

Yes hi I’m here. 

School got real busy since it was the end of the quarter. But now I’m on spring break so I’m back. I should probably be responsible and catch up on everything I missed, but that’s sounds boring so I’m just gonna use context clues. What’s up?

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I would include the people that voted on Pyro in this list too (Devo, TJ, illwei) - we know that Pyro was a villager, so dumping votes on him could also be elim teammates attempting to save elim!Ash. To the elims it wouldnt have made much of a difference whether Pyro or Striker got exe'd as long as it meant they'd save a teammate.

54 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

An attempt to save elim Ash would have happened well before the Pyro wagon started. The vote count was 7-3 Striker-Ash when Illwei voted Pyro, and then after Striker switched from Ash to Pyro, Ash was no longer the main alternative to Striker.

Essentially what Devo said here, any vote on Pyro wouldn't really have done anything to make me not die. It just exists as another place for people to go if they didn't want to execute Striker. That may include Elims, but that's a different reason than the point I was trying to prove.

... that being said, your (Stick's) vote switch didn't make much of a difference as to whether I would die either. That would make Fifth or Quinn my likely teammates, imo.

Then again, I'm not an Elim  and I found that switch odd for other reasons.

 

[Quivil]

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Just want to note, this is the second or third time that you've said this and I still don't understand why. I'm scary because people suspect me? Like what makes me scary? All I've seen from you is just following Quinn's reads and beign against me because of this "scariness". 

Reeeealy bad gut feel against you. You're not scary, I'm just scared of you. I don't remember exactly why now, but it had something to do with something somebody mentioned about pocketing and possibly confirmation bias...

But okay. Mailliw, Stick

[STINK]

1 hour ago, Quintessential said:

Since apparently I'm an exe option now, I figure it's probably not wise to leave my vote sitting out there all by itself on Araris : P 

Y'know something which has definitely been discourse'd before but

All these things where its like 'I don't wanna die here's a self-preservation play'

That's not really a village thing its actually kinda sus unless you genuinely think there's a reason your life is worth more than anyone else's bar it being you

Like if ur a mistborn in disguise then yeah but like otherwise its just possibly killing another villager cause they aren't u

People have said more about this somewhere sometime but like yeah

Self-pres kinda dodgy

EDIT: Also my vote engaged self-pres mode whew

[---]

Just now, STINK said:

Self-pres kinda dodgy

What???

you're the only person you know to be a villager. I think there's different circumstances that might change things, but for the most part, on like, D1/2, there's not really going to be a reason that you think someone else is...more important? than you? yeah it's potentially killing another villager but the alternative is killing a villager, so...?

[Quivil]

Actually Stick, Maill

Gut read against Maill and no read on Stick

[Ashbringer]

Also... this is a dumb question, but why is the Mistborn always considered the super role? I would think a Coinshot or Seeker is more important, because they can be a whole lot more consistent.

Edit: Er, no offense to present Mistborns  please don't kill me

Edited March 7, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Quivil]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Edit: Er, no offense to present Mistborns  please don't kill me

None taken.

Also I won't be able to kill you for about another 8 rounds.

[Fifth Scholar]

drowning in homework, relatives and dogs right now so this will be short and stripped of the reasoning that should back it up. Also no multiquotes even though that’d be fun  

I’ve read through the thread and am slowly questioning all my prior reads except maybe Mat. I’m not sure where the pressure on Illwei went, since that’s still the person I’d most like dead, but if current vote counts are to be trusted suspicion has evaporated off her and onto her main accuser, Maill, who I think is good for reasons I will explain later but mostly for identifying Illwei as an excellent candidate for an active Eliminator early on. Because I’m comfortable leaving a vote there, Illwei, and after I’ve taken a chunk out of this five page essay, I’ll come back and see which of the viable alternatives to Maill I like the best. Fifth out. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Fifth Scholar
I never boldface my votes the first time

[Quintessential]

9 minutes ago, Tani said:

Also I won't be able to kill you for about another 8 rounds.

Technically if Kas rolls twice in a row that you get steel, then you can end up with it. But obviously that's unlikely. Would be a 1/64 chance, so about 1.6%? XD and that's assuming all the metals are weighted evenly within each roll.

[---]

7 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m not sure where the pressure on Illwei went, since that’s still the person I’d most like dead

7 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

but mostly for identifying Illwei as an excellent candidate for an active Eliminator early on

I look forward to hearing your reasonings, because

wat?
--

Just now, Quintessential said:

Would be a 1/64 chance, so about 1.6%? XD and that's assuming all the metals are weighted evenly within each roll.

what

there's

only 8 metals though? idk. I don't math.

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

only 8 metals though? idk. I don't math.

Once a Mistborn gets a metal once, Kas rerolls if he rolls for that metal again. So, if 1 = Steel, then he has to roll a 1 (which is a 1/8 chance) and then roll another 1 (another 1/8). You multiply those probabilities together, so that's 1/64 or 1.6% chance that she'll get Steel again.

[Araris Valerian]

19 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Once a Mistborn gets a metal once, Kas rerolls if he rolls for that metal again. So, if 1 = Steel, then he has to roll a 1 (which is a 1/8 chance) and then roll another 1 (another 1/8). You multiply those probabilities together, so that's 1/64 or 1.6% chance that she'll get Steel again.

No, since Kas is rolling a d10 and rerolling on 9 and 10 as well. Thus Tani has a 4/10 chance of getting a reroll (9, 10, Steel, Pewter), followed by a 1/8 chance of Steel, for a 1/20 chance.

[STINK]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

What???

you're the only person you know to be a villager. I think there's different circumstances that might change things, but for the most part, on like, D1/2, there's not really going to be a reason that you think someone else is...more important? than you? yeah it's potentially killing another villager but the alternative is killing a villager, so...?

no legit like

your aim as a villager is not to live but to kill the elims so sometimes u gotta take an L and point people in the right direction rather than fruitlessly going guys keep me alive

legit its been discussed a bunch akin to whether to do a D1 lynch or not and like yeah its just bad village play to go self-preservation

[Quivil]

Bye I'll see y'all again right before Night's turnover so if you want to lynch me I won't see it and won't defend myself or threaten vengeance from the grave.

[Elandera]

Vote count because I'm curious and might change my vote accordingly...

Illwei (2) - Burnt, Fifth
Maill (4) - TWS, Matrim, Quinn, Tani
Quinn (3) - Araris, Elan, STINK
Ashbringer (2) - TJ Shade, Stick
Dannex (1) - Illwei

Nope. I'm content there.

---

Just a little more carbon. Yes. More carbon.

Too much.

More iron, then. Need to make steel and misties get angry if it's wrong. So more carbon.

No. No, more iron.

Yes. Iron.

Next is the tin and copper. Strong mistie wants more. So much more. Lots of the tin and copper. That one tastes good too. Good copper, good tin. Together great.

[---]

3 minutes ago, STINK said:

legit its been discussed a bunch akin to whether to do a D1 lynch or not and like yeah its just bad village play to go self-preservation

Sure there's the whole..."how much time is this going to take up if I survive" but that goes into the potential exceptions list. along with deciding if you think you'd be more valuable alive than them yeah but like- those are likely more exceptions than whatnot

Get mad at me for bad village play all you want ig.

Perhaps it's just me knowing that I left Aman alive in a game when it was me v. him, and he turned out to be an elim. /shrug

[Biplet]

People didn't normally stare in Fallion's Tears.

There was a sort of politeness about the town. You minded your business, were friendly to your neighbor. The sleepy little town sat far enough west that the strife of the capital didn't seem to reach it. It was how Sara had flown under the radar for so many years.

Things were different now. People stared. Stared for too long. Or they looked away quickly, like you didn't see them looking. People didn't thank you for a drink anymore. Eyes did the talking now. Sara had always been bad at reading eyes. She liked it when people talked. She understood them better. Now they spoke with facial expressions she couldn't read. Nothing made sense.

It's not like it ever did.

Sara had always been odd. It was only now that people were beginning to take notice.

-0-

Okay, I got here to collect my thoughts and realized I didn't have many. I agree with a lot of what's being said about Maill. I think the info we could get from their exe would be valuable, but I'm not entirely sure of my read on them. I'm thinking mild elim, following the events of the pm group.

I wouldn't say I was involved, but I was informed of the group and of Tani being a mistborn from a couple different parties involved in the pm group and also Illwei. So far, I wouldn't say I have too many suspicions of Illwei, based on how conversations with her went concerning her possible impending mistborn death. I think at least one person in the pm group is probably an elim, and so far my suspicions rest highest on Maill and Quinn, but y'all other two aren't off the hook lol.

I don't want to completely focus on the pm group, but that's really where all my suspicions lie haha. I really don't suspect Ash much, because he was pretty clear that he didn't want Striker to die. Though maybe that was a cover up. Idk lol.

Anyway, for now, Maill. Like always this might change as new info comes out. I wanted to get some thoughts out now though.

[---]

agh

[Gears]

[Illwei's iso is currently under construction, but it's really late, my computer is screaming in agony, my keystrokes are taking literal seconds to show up [it's lagging so much that if I hit paste and click to a different section, it pastes in the new section], I'm slightly concerned about a character limit, and I'm tired, so I'm just going to hit post despite Iso!Wei only being at N1. I'll just edit in the rest of the iso in the morning.]

An iso of the new Cage-Shuffle-Squat Duo.

Maia:

Spoiler

D1

Spoiler

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Startled, Marll shot up awake. Something had happened, he could feel it. Had he heard something? He wasn't sure, but there was something left of his old instincts and they hadn't failed him yet. The old cobbler hadn't always been the storytelling cobbler of Fallion's Tears. He had always been a gambler though. he found something thrilling, exhilarating about the chance. You stood on the edge of a triumph or a tragedy and you never knew which was which until the dice settled and the pips showed your fate. It was a rush that Marll had felt in few other circumstances, but it was the thrill that he lived for. There was a joy, an excitement that made one feel truly alive and Marll loved being alive. The instincts that had pulled him through both failure and conquest alerted him now that there was something on edge in town.

Marll quickly put himself through the motions of getting ready. As quickly as he could at least. His joints hadn't taken well to life and his fingers hadn't taken well to cobbling, but he'd lived longer than plenty of skaa did anyways. Smelling a tinge of smoke and hearing distant shouts, Marll paced to the tavern. He ordered his regular potatoes and gravy for breakfast, but he held off on the ale; he still had a headache from his mug (or three) the night before and the tension in the air told him he'd need what clarity he could muster. Marll pulled out a coin and flipped it, muttering, "Ruler, I ask first. Spires, I wait till someone mentions it." The spires of Kredik Shaw glinted as the coin landed in his hand. Grunting, he sat to eat and primed his ears to listen to the mutters and gossip going around the room. A storm was building, he knew it. He'd felt the tension in the room before, when he was younger and storms were what he enjoyed most. Those days were past, but with Kast dead, there weren't likely to be many left in town ready to handle the mess that was going to follow here soon. Death begets death. Marll knew that all too well. Oh did he know that. But enough of the past, the present was busy enough. 

Koloss were destructive, Marll knew, but the destruction of a people under paranoia's fervent grip could be just as complete. This town would fall to that insidious parasite if he didn't step up and help them get away from it early. "A people, long ago, longer than the Lord Ruler, found themselves in a tempest. This tempest was not one of winds or of debris, but one of words. The storm raged in their hearts as they harbored their petty grievances and boiled their discontent long past steaming. When one tea kettle finally erupted over, they all exploded promptly after, one then another, then all. Anger followed bitterness followed by rage and people under the influence of rage do things more akin to beasts than even a storm. Blood and ashes silhouetted the emotions inside and the skeletons outside. The tempest tossed, the steam spewed, and the town itself wept. That's why it's called Fallion's Tears, you know, and now we begin anew, figures going in circles."

Marll felt himself tugged into this new story again and he cried inside because his eyes had already seen the end and emptied themselves through the night. 
——

Wow three pages already, geez. I’ll post more tonight when I have more time, but a few thoughts for now. 

quick train on Striker. I’d be interested in the person who put the third vote on him, but I’m on mobile and not going to check that right now. 

Thanks Quinn for bringing up distribution. I agree with her! Guessing distribution is how the village got completely sidetracked from the elims in Kas’s first game and I know he is big on that. So I’m not going to assume much about the distribution and recommend not using that for major suspicions. 

Smokers can definitely be useful to the village. Like has been mentioned, they prevent elim vote manip from moving their votes, and also prevent elim seekers from finding their roles. 

Clarification on Smokers. They choose to turn off their copper cloud or to extend it to someone else as their action. Anyone covered by the copper cloud is immune from vote manipulation and will show up as a vanilla villager to a Seeker. 

RP, notes Striker train, assumptions are the enemy, village!Smokers useful. All good points. NAI.

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  On 2/26/2021 at 2:01 PM, Quintessential said:

That was me. But as I told Mat in PMs, I decided to vote for Striker before I saw that other people had already.

 

Fair enough. Like I said, I’ll look over votes again later on. 

Ah and on Coinshots killing. I think Striker’s suggestion is a valid way to play that role. My personal opinion is that kills should be used but in moderation. Use them as you have a genuine suspicion, not just because you want to use it. 

Murder is good. Again, good point, NAI.

Quote

Going back and looking at the voting patterns so far (I know it's day one and probably random, but still), I think I'm going to go with Illwei for now. Maybe it's a more typical Illwei thing to do, but the vote on Quinn then the retraction and vote on Stick was...interesting to me as well as her back and forth with Quinn. 

We also haven't seen @Fifth Scholar @Ventyl or @Burnt Spaghetti and I know they're usually more active. I'd consider a poke vote on them later on potentially as well. And @Daisy and @Tani, I know it's your first game, but any thoughts so far?

Notes vote and retraction, argument with Quinn. Mai and Wei haven't interacted much, but I can say that this vote was noted. 

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 On 2/26/2021 at 6:52 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Thanks for remembering me.

I have a mild suspicion on Striker, but I've gotten that pretty much every game, including the one where I was an Elim. 

Hey, I only tagged a couple people.  I think you've played before too. I only tagged players that I was sure it was their first game and players that I've played with before. 

Banter

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On 2/26/2021 at 6:57 PM, Quintessential said:

Great now I'm reading Maill mild elim too... this post basically... like... : P idk but A. it feels off to me--like, it feels kind of like Books voting Gears in C5 of the MR. My reasons for voting Illwei are more or less exclusive to me? if that makes sense? and Maill just adopting them without at least explicitly mentioning that they were originally mine feels weird. 

Also (edit: this was supposed to be "And B." in case that wasn't clear : P) this plus the fact that Maill is actually talking to me in PMs makes me feel like he's trying to pocket meeee XDDDDDDD

 

Lol, I'm talking to at least half the players in PMs, it's kinda what I do.  But on the other point, I honestly didn't go back and see what everyone's reasonings were for voting, I just looked at the votes and retractions themselves, thought Illwei's was strangest and placed my vote. I didn't realize yours was also on her until I checked your vote count right before I posted. 

Yes, Mai is nice during PM chatter. That point seems fine. On the other hand, the vote was noted.

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  On 2/26/2021 at 7:02 PM, Quintessential said:

Ah. Okay. That. Makes sense. Sorry XD I'm a bit paranoid at times... my Rank is definitely well-deserved.

Babsk?

Banter

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On 2/26/2021 at 8:48 PM, Quintessential said:

That's reputation lol "Rank" is the title right below your name, weirdly enough

I think it's called Reputation Rank though. Ah, that's right, it's called Rank now, that is weird...

Banter

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  On 2/26/2021 at 10:10 PM, Illwei said:

 

Who said it was a joke 

I concur! 

  On 2/26/2021 at 10:13 PM, Kasimir said:

Wow, this hurts  

Because he said relatively instead of definitely? 

Banter

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On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Elandera said:

Mm. Yes. That's copper. Mostly. It left the familiar tangy metal taste on my tongue. Only copper did that. Maybe steel, too. But this is definitely copper.

That's what that cranky mistie wanted, right? Should be. He was not happy with me. Impatient.

He'd get the copper and zinc. Brass, is what they call it.

Like they call me mad.

Good. This mistie will get what he wants. 

Hey, Elandera, I know you're busy, but I'm curious if you've got a bit more to share.  I love your analysis, so I'd love to see anything you've got. 

I guess, as I type that, I realize that i haven't posted any analysis yet really either, but that's me. PM me if I haven't already PMd you and we can talk more about my thoughts. 

Regarding Tani, I really don't think it's that big of a deal... They're new to SE, of course they don't know the meta here about D1 lynches or about voting. I think they deserve some time to figure out what's going on and if they have a more chaotic playstyle, well, the more the merrier! None of what they've said has set off any alarms for me. 

Illwei, I think I've learned via PMs that your style is just more chaotic than I expected, which is why that vote-retract-vote was weird to me. So now that my expectations are adjusted, I don't think that is worth exeing you for, since I guess it's just kinda your style. I am going to leave my vote as is for now though because between Quinn and Illwei, I'm not opposed to one of them being the exe target and I think Quinn's gotten that a bunch recently from what I hear. 

I'm also down for a more Contribution Crusade type of vote too if there's a good target for that who isn't new or returning. 

At this stage, Tani is noted but new. They do promote the IQ thunderdome, which is noted. 

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On 2/27/2021 at 2:23 PM, Quintessential said:

...okay two reactions to this: first of all WHY WHY WHY would you claim???

And second of all, note that they won't be able to successfully scan you until... I believe next cycle? Yeah, next cycle. Right? Because you can only turn off your copper as a Night action.

Why not, I guess? Smoker isn’t a detrimental one to claim, even if he’s honest. If anything, it’s only advantageous if he’s an elim but even then he just committed to turning it off. I don’t think that’s a bad move at all. 

and about my vote on Illwei, I don’t have a better idea right now. The tension between Quinn and Illwei is interesting (maybe something normal, idk?) and I think there might be something there. I just meant that her voting pattern alone is no longer the sole reason my vote is there. I think the voting she’s doing is more inline with her chaotic nature but the arguments with Quinn haven’t been so there’s a disconnect there that I’m interested in. 

Concur on Smoker point. I think Mai and I have differing philosophies about the X, but this seems odd.

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On 2/27/2021 at 2:27 PM, Experience said:

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the elims choose to smoke him now...

Fair but that’s no worse than him smoking himself. 

And if the elims are banking that hard in their vote manip, they’re probably wrecked already. 

First point agree, second point not noted, but a bit overstated.

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  On 2/27/2021 at 2:32 PM, Quintessential said:

Well, it's also just that the N1 NK is, in my experience, almost as much of a shot in the dark as the D1 exe, so anything that paints a target on someone's back in particular helps the elims because they know who to shoot at--or, rather, stab brutally with a spike?

I guess. It also gives us more info, which I think is the whole goal of D1. 

Again, differing opinions.

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On 2/27/2021 at 3:00 PM, Elandera said:

"Hmm. This Elandera. Don't know her. You're as crazy as me it seems."

The metal is what matters right now. Yes. This time it's steel again. Always with the steel. 

Why does everyone want to go jumping around and jumping to conclusions?

They just need a bit more metal in their lives. It frees the mind.

Alright, cool, cool. 

  On 2/27/2021 at 3:05 PM, Illwei said:

I am no longer accepting arguments from Mailliw, as he has now seemingly resorted to using meta that he doesn't know smh. :P.

Is it illegal for me to decide to have a non-chaotic game? and what defines chaotic? :P. If you want to take the time to make a meta case against me, feel free to go back and read the games I've played. Everything since LG67 excluding MR43 and MR47 :).

Uh, okay... Apparently I need to explain my reasoning better than I have so at least your defense is based off of what i'm actually thinking. 

So. Illwei votes on Quinn, then retracts the vote and votes on Stick in the same post. I think that's weird, so I decide to put my vote on Illwei. I later learn through multiple PM conversations about Illwei that apparently that kind of voting is fairly normal for her, so now that voting reason is NAI to me. At the same time, the amount of tension and dialogue between Illwei and Quinn leads me to believe that one of the two dying would lead us to the most information and I'm leaning towards Illwei on that still if I had to pick. In addition, the more I look at the way Illwei has voted and the way Illwei has replied to Quinn, they feel like two different people. Like one is elim and the other is elim trying to play it off like village. So I'm leaving my vote. 

  On 2/27/2021 at 3:13 PM, Quintessential said:

I... ahhhh why am I doing this Illwei this feels like village!you and since my entire argument is based on meta... anyway.

Mailliw for... I'm not even sure. tbh I still haven't totally shaken the feeling that Maill is trying to pocket me, I guess. I have nothing else on anyone else. So. Yeah. There you go : P

Okay? Just cause we have a good PM going and I complimented your name doesn't mean I'm pocketing you.  I complimented Gears's RP to start our PM, so idk how that's pocketing, but okay...

  On 2/27/2021 at 3:25 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

- voting for Shard of Reading

- village reads: Stick, Maill, Quinn*, Araris, Elandera

Is Reading new? I thought they were, but I'm obviously out of the loop.

Yeah, why does Quinn have the asterisk?

  On 2/27/2021 at 4:09 PM, STINK said:

i want u all to know im not reading these posts and u cant make me

Fair, I'll be honest, I only skim Fifth's. At least in this game but that's because there's a new page like every time I reload this. Like 4 or 5 posts each from Illwei and Quinn every time. 

The reasoning for the vote seems poor, but it's D1. Compliments are NAI, no expectation of trust. Can verify the compliment, it was very kind of you. 

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On 2/27/2021 at 4:39 PM, Illwei said:

...cool? I donno how to defend against...that...so...coolio. you do you :P.

I didn't like how you jumped on me, and how your reasoning has shifted. It feels more like you're looking for a reason to kill me and stay on me, rather than actually trying to either find villagers or find Elims.

I love how I seem to be at the top of your mind, very flattering :P. but do you have any other thoughts? You shade Quinn in your post I see. That's not a point for me seeing you as village :P.
--
Quinn has almost 60 posts guys. I don't even have 30, and I'm second highest poster :P.

I mean yes my reasoning shifted, you posted more, so it would be more strange if my reasoning stayed the same. Maybe I am kinda tunneling though, idk. I'll see if I cant put forward a number 2 suspicion. 

Also what did I do to shade Quinn? 

And Mat, I think you're the fourth(?) person to day that your gut is pointing at me, so idk. Maybe I'm just really old and my playstyle is outdated. Idk what's causing all this gut stuff. Maybe it's lactose?

Probably tunnelling, very nice. 

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 On 2/27/2021 at 4:53 PM, Quintessential said:

I mean, I'm pretty sure for me it's just that you're so nice and also you happen to agree with me in my reads of... well, most people anyway so that just seems... off to me? XD so yeah, maybe it is outdated playstyle or something :P.

Is niceness not a part of the games anymore? What happened to the Gentleman Killers title? I don't know why things have to be personal or aggressive. Whenever I played, those were always frowned upon strongly. 

  On 2/27/2021 at 5:00 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I think it’s that you’re an older player that none of the newest generation has interacted with. Older players that have been playing lately have at least played with the newer players, so even if the new players don’t get the older playerstyles, they can just say it’s that player’s quirk. I think a lot of the reaction to you so far is from you coming back after a hot minute.

I agree, I think there's a generational shift that I missed. 

I comprehend the shift but have difficulty elaborating on my reasoning for why it happened. 

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On 2/27/2021 at 5:04 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I would hope niceness is still part of the game- if not, something has changed since last week  

Yeah, I just think the amount of intensity or aggressiveness (even if coming from a good place or in a friendship) is increased from when I was active. Like Quinn and Illwei's back and forth is further than it would have gone a few years ago when I was around. 

Edit: So I probably come off to Quinn as very nice, when in my head that's the expectation still. 

Makes sense.

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On 2/27/2021 at 5:09 PM, Biplet said:

I'd like to say that I came to the conclusion myself. I almost voted for Striker, who is my actual irl boyfriend. I waited a while to vote because I was going between you two and a third person, not because I was waiting for a bandwagon to jump on. Didn't feel comfortable throwing a vote to the void for no reason, especially considering tani did that and was immediately pressed for a reason. Not that that's a bad thing, but I would be uncomfortable with it. I wanted to collect my thoughts.

And I'm not sure why I'm being jumped on for this. I'm making my own decisions based on what feels right, and doing my best to be active while juggling exams, projects, and essays  

Who's the third person? Now I'm curious. 

Questions.

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On 2/27/2021 at 10:17 PM, Tani said:

@Kasimir

Do I have to vote?

Shard of Reading

No you don’t. 

Truth

Conclusion as of D1: Noted but not suspected. Possibly playstyle/generational differences.

N1

Spoiler

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Does anyone have a vote count from the end of the cycle? I’m seeing 4 votes missing, not 3?

Confused by the errors abound in the vote counts

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Looks like Devo is back on Books but there’s still a missing vote there. 

Facts

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More to come tomorrow. Sunday’s are harder for me to have in depth stuff, sorry. 

I think out of the Books lynch that the Ventyl, Stick, Striker trio is where the elim is most likely to be.

Here is where we must ponder. Would an elim willingly be wrong? Ventyl and Striker flipped village, and apparently, they were reading Stick as village, so they are wrong one way or another. 

Conclusion as of N1: Same as D1, but significantly more noted than before.

D2

Spoiler

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Alright, I don't have as much time today as I have had so far because I do have homework that needs to get done, so I don't know that this day turn is going to have as much as normal, but then again, I don't know that I frequently do have a ton of indepth thread comments. 

Anyways, looking back on the voting from last turn, I had said that I found Ventyl, Stick, and Striker to be the most suspicious. i just went back to look at the actual voting times and other votes on at the time of the vote, since data doesn't lie, but emotional appeals might. Ventyl is clearly village, since he's dead, RIP. Stick brought it to 3-3-4 between Illwei, Reading, and Books. I don't really see that as alignment indicative yet. Striker though takes the pressure off Illwei and switches to Books and then Illwei switches off herself to Reading later on. I think I'm beginning to see an Illwei-Striker evil pairing here. I think Reading is likely to be good as well and just an unfortunate second lynch option. I would also add Bard maybe lower down the list of potential elims since his vote really took it past a tie. 

On the Reading votes, I think aside from Illwei, it's likely to be all villagers. Araris was going for a less active player, Fifth seems way too into this game to be evil to me and joined Araris's ideas. I'd put maybe Matrim or Pyro on the elim team as well, voting for Striker for distancing. 

So right now, I'm thinking Illwei, Striker, Matrim, Pyro, Bard in that order for my suspicions. 

I don't see a reason why Mai dropped the Stick suspicion. Ties Illwei to Striker for a change in opinion. Thinks Reading votes are clear. Elim!Mai means look at [Araris, Fifth, Books, Wei] I don't understand the reasoning for much of these suspicions.

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On 3/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not really seeing Illwei-Striker, though perhaps I should relook that. I did mark down Bard though, he kinda defended Striker a bit in the beginning, that didn't escape my notice.

I could see Pyro for this, but Striker is like literally my only concrete real suspicion. It'd be one heck of a bus  

My order of suspicions is probably Striker - Bard/Exp - Maill - Tani

What would be a heck of a bus? The train that started on Striker at the beginning?

Questions

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  On 3/1/2021 at 4:32 PM, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, maybe we can let people play with different playstyles that they're having fun with! I'm personally loving her posts. Plus, she is making some pretty good points, if you're reading closely. I do think she could also do some occasional less-RP focused posts, but I'd rather her have fun than feel like she has to participate.

Also, I was definitely not the only player talking about the stuff with Ventyl possibly being elim. Maybe I was the most vocal, but I wasn't the only one. And I definitely came to the conclusion that he was most likely village. You can go read what I said, if you want. 

She also responds well to PMs  

Mat, thanks for clarifying your bus I see now. 

Comprehension

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When did I say Stick was a top suspicion?

I assume the group PM was made somewhere around here. They drop the Stick suspicion without any reasoning.

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 On 3/1/2021 at 10:46 PM, Illwei said:

There's no mention of stick outside these comments. one saying that you find stick suspicious, and another saying that you think one thing she did is NAI.

Ah, I didn't explain well. The first mention was that based solely off the votes I initially found those three to be in the most suspicious spot, because that's where the exe on Books was solidified. Of the three, as I recapped the voting times and other votes, that's when I made the second comment and decided it wasn't very AI. Also off other things, mostly PM stuff that I don't particularly want to put here, and yes, gut, I don't find Stick very suspicious. 

@_Stick_, could I have a timeframe on this post vs when you were in communications with Maia?

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So it’s 4-1-1-1 from what I can tell but I’m on mobile so who knows right now. 

I was waiting to place a vote for sure until I saw some more opinions on Striker, Illwei, or Mat/Pyro. Now there’s been quite an increase in Striker and I’m uneasy voting for him completely in confidence. I’m going to put my vote there for now, but I will note that it’s subject to change. Illwei is still not forgotten and is probably just a smidge higher on my suspicions. 

Reasoning from Maia: Illwei/Striker connections. Flimsy at best. [Malicious framing, while concerning, ends up being a noted NAI.]

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On 3/2/2021 at 11:54 AM, StrikerEZ said:

I’m not trying to attribute it to just your newness. I’m just saying that I think you’re acting in a way that like...makes people just go “oh you’re just a new player.” Either that or you’re just not used to the meta around here and are just going for it however you want.

Like I've said at least four times between PMs and the thread, I think this is exactly what's happening and I don't think we want to discourage that because that's what new players bring to the games. 

True

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On 3/2/2021 at 5:46 PM, Ashbringer said:

... I'm too used to seeing Maw, apparently...

Mailliw

You been talking to Joe or reading LG3? 

Banter

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On 3/2/2021 at 6:11 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

Maill (been getting weird vibes in PMs and the Illwei focus is just odd);

Wait, so I've been thinking about this, and I'm confused. Our PM hasn't been that detailed or long. I don't know what gave you weird vibes just from the handful of messages there. 

Anything can give someone 'vibes', as it were.

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On 3/2/2021 at 9:55 PM, Experience said:

Hmmm. I feel like Maill's trying to pocket me in PMs... It's a stronger gut feeling then Araris, so i'll go with that for now. 

Uh... I feel like this generation of newer players is used to very different types of PMs than I am... Our PM in the last 24 hours is literally me asking about your suspicions, you say you aren't sure, need to catch up, Quinn is a bit off, you had a bad gut read on me but now it's null. I said Quinn? You said Quinn and Illwei are hard to read and I said that they were definitely an interesting couple of players. 

That's it. Is it pocketing because I am friendly in my responses? Is it because I agreed that Quinn and Illwei could be more difficult to read? Like, I agree on one thing and people think I'm pocketing? I'm just confused about how PMs are used now. 

I personally think that PMs should be used for banter, laughter, jokes about Doctor Who [looking at you, Quinn], chatting very briefly about IG things, more banter, and maybe some actually relevant things. Friendliness is to be expected as a part of having a conversation. 

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 On 3/2/2021 at 11:05 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn't expect you to :P.

I thought Exp's vote was fine until I read Maill's comment. Now I don't like it :P. 

Don’t like my post or Exp’s vote or both? 

Questions

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On 3/2/2021 at 11:43 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Exp's vote. Course, I'm not in the PM  But I'm inclined to think you described it as it was.

Oh yes. Gotcha. It’s exactly (without c/ping) what the PM was. 

Commentary

Conclusion as of D2: Maia maliciously frames things a lot. I haven't played with them before, so I don't know if it's normal or not, but it's noted. Could be elim fishing for mix's, could be villager [like LG73!Striker]. I have no reasons to suspect them and no reasons to trust them.

N2

Spoiler

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More later probably but my main reasoning on striker was a combination of the fact that others were suspicious of him and his placement of votes seemed prime for an elim. He also was going to yield more info than anyone aside maybe Quinn or Illwei. 

Understandable, but they do maliciously frame a lot.

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 On 3/3/2021 at 3:07 PM, Illwei said:

Do you have any conclusions from his flip, then?

I’ve got some stuff to do now, later afternoons and evenings are easier for me. But yeah, I need to reevaluate my thoughts. Except on you.  I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry. 

Continues to tunnel on Illwei for no reason.

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On 3/3/2021 at 3:36 PM, Illwei said:

Then I think we gots ourselves another one to add to the hall of tunneling.

but wasn't asking about me, was asking because you claim it was a good info kill, just interested in seeing what info

Alright, here you go

These were Striker's suspicions before he died. 

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Strong Elim: TJ (not 100% sure why, but some of that stuff with the LG67 thing just rubbed me the wrong way like...he was trying to make it seem like, oh of course we would've known not to focus on Ventyl if he'd survived but...I dunno. been getting odd vibes from him), Maill (I've been getting stranger and stranger vibes from him as the game has gone on, both in PMs and in thread. He's probably my first suggestion to look at when I die).
Mild Elim: Gears (mostly gut, based just on tone from his stuff. I know this is probably the same as how his posts always make me feel, but hey, eventually I gotta be right someday ), Quinn (eh? not sure, but not null. Probably could go on either side of the null, depending on which post of hers I read ), Illwei (mostly because of odd vibes from D1 and less odd vibes, but still present vibes from today), TUO (everything with those like...subtext claims being all over the place just gave me bad vibes), Pyro (wasn't a fan of how he treated Elandera last turn, plus he's been doing odd things. not my strongest elim read, but put it here because he's not null and not mild village). 
Null: Fifth (I know he's voted more to not belong in this category, but I honestly have no opinion on the stuff he's done so far), Reading (like I said, don't remember why the train started on him or anything about him really), Dannex, Devo, Experience, The Windrunner Supreme, Burnt, Stink, Daisy, Young Bard.
Mild Village: Mat (we seem to run into some sort of argument at the start of every game somehow, and this last time wasn't any different. I think he's probably village, but I always worry about him, so he's only mild for now), Araris (got some relatively good vibes from him, and he feels like village!Araris to me, at least so far), Ash (I know I'm voting on him, yes, but I think he's probably not elim? but he's my best chance at surviving right now), Stick (she seems to be pretty legitimately trying to solve the game, even if we disagree. trying not to let my disagreements affect my judgement of people), Tani (despite everything, I'm putting her here for now, because I think I've been convinced that the way she's playing is just a playstyle thing).
Strong Village: Elandera (making really good comments and starting to help out and seems to want to have fun and solve the game; seems pretty good to me), Bippy (she seems like she is legit just confused so far, though learning pretty progressively. Plus she seems to be actively trying to solve the game, so pretty sure she's village).

I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more. 

Anyways, that was kinda writing stream of consciousness so I don't know how legible it is, but basically I think his reads can give us some direction to look. Obviously confirmed villager isn't confirmed correct, but it's something. It's more than we got to go off from Books, Ventyl, or Randby.

My original reasoning for looking at Striker was his vote placement on Books D1. He and Ventyl obviously have been proven, so Stick was the next one on the list there. Stick and Pyro(who voted on Striker D1 and I had found that interesting) also ended up being the final votes on Striker this day. Pyro has been...interesting in our PM. He claimed a role that he knew he couldn't prove and then changed it when confronted. Aside from that, it hasn't been anything AI, just him being very insistent (and I disagree) that Tineyes are the main role aside from Seekers that Elims want to kill. So Pyro would be next up on my suspicions, then Stick I'd want to look at more, but all my personal interactions have been very village. And Experience is the next interesting one to me. Their claim of me pocketing them, maybe rioting and so losing their vote on me(?), and general evasiveness and vagueness has me suspicious. I also would like to look more into Araris, Devotary, and Elandera as more experienced players that haven't seemed to participate much. I've never been good at reading any of them, which is why I've typically stayed away from that territory for the first few days, but assuming I survive the night, I'd want to look more into them as well. 

Have they looked into those three? I don't recall, so I would assume not.

Quote

 On 3/4/2021 at 0:09 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So if you're reading Stick as somewhat village and Striker and Ventyl are dead, does that make you reconsider which Books votes are more likely to be evil? Knowing if Illwei or Reading are evil could give a better understanding of when an elim shift to Books would have happened, unless they're both village in which case the elims had free reign to do whatever they wanted.

Pocketing means something different than it used to, gets applied far more readily nowadays to a wider variety of non-hostile interactions, so this isn't an Experience specific thing. I also don't think it's likely that an elim rioter would expose their existence so pointlessly with the prospect of getting alignment scanned, regardless of whether or not XP is a rioter.

I do also note that you're agreeing with Striker's read of you being strong elim.

I agree that Reading and particularly Illwei's flip would help us to better understand the Books train a lot better, since I am more confused now where the elims joined in, if at all. 

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. (Green-confirmed village, blue-moderate village, orange-moderate elim, yellow-lean elim, everyone else, if they're a mild read I didn't put any colors)

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?). 

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement. 

Hopefully some of that made sense to some of you...

On your last paragraph, I didn't feel the need to explicitly point out that that was obviously a read I didn't agree with.  

I still don't understand the Illwei suspicion's, though the VC does support-ish. Wherein lies the analysis on Devo, Araris? This analysis does of course predicate on the fact that the elims were in that voting bloc, but then again, assumptions abound.

Quote

  On 3/4/2021 at 11:17 AM, Shard of Reading said:

Stink you stole my joke!

 

Classic Stink. 

Banter

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On 3/4/2021 at 1:48 PM, Tani said:

I have a gut feeling against Maill... and possibly some PMs stuff... just thought y'all should know...

The PMs stuff is all a big misunderstanding, I think. 

  On 3/4/2021 at 1:50 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

That's funny, considering I do as well, and also have an elim read on you. Hmm. In fact, you two are my only suspicions that really stayed after Striker died.

I'm pretty sure everyone has a permanent gut feeling against me in every game ever. I play with too random of a style for village gut reads, I think. 

I personally instinctively trust you because of banter. I also don't trust my instincts ever.

Quote

 On 3/4/2021 at 5:06 PM, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm currently gut reading you slight village.

Who are you and how did you manage this witchcraft? 

Banter

Conclusion as of N2: Not much change. Tunneling, malicious framing, all noted but NAI things. I see no reason to X them but no reason to spare them.

D3

Spoiler

On 3/5/2021 at 2:00 PM, Mailliw73 said:

Well uh what the storms? 

@Wyrmhero Good to see you again, man. 

But uh I don’t even know where to start and I’m busy this afternoon. I’ll have plenty of time this evening to relook at everything and figure out what cream(tried to spell crem but autocorrect did that and ah well) hit the fan. 

True.

On 3/5/2021 at 5:28 PM, Mailliw73 said:

i wanted to get an updated version of this out while I'm thinking over what happened this morning. This is like Bard's but updated with new deaths. I'm also going to take my reads out of it, sinc apparently XP and Pyro were village... 

Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. 

Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books
Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim
Stick (1): XP
Illwei (1): Maill
Quinn (1): Dannex
Pyro (1): Bard
Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ

Quote

With that pointed out, I think straight off the Books vote, and mostly the Striker vote, the elims are just letting us go wild with our random suspicions. I would bargain that the elims aren't pushing or meddling much in the voting results. If that's the case, I would imagine they'd be the later votes on Books (Ash, Devo, TJ) and/or people voting on others so as to not be on the train at all (continuing my suspicions of Pyro, XP, and Illwei, but also maybe Dannex, Mat, Araris?).

^These were my thoughts yesterday when evaluating. Clearly Pyro and XP were wrong suspicions, but even then, I can't shake Illwei completely. I'll leave off on her for the sake of this post at least though. Like Mat, I think at least one of (Ash, Devo, TJ) are likely to be evil from that Books exe. I'm not sure that Dannex, Mat, Araris really have much from this day's vote that actually makes me suspect them, especially the more that we see the people not on the two main exe candidates flip village. [Gears here, why would an elim want to incriminate themself by voting last second on a villager, particularly when abstaining from the D1 X is an acceptable thing to do? Books was in the lead. Killing Reading might actually give us some context for this.]

Day 2:

StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer
                     Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_

The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade
Ashbringer (1): Young Bard
The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer
Mailliw73 (1): Experience

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Looking at D2, I would say that the elims are most likely to be clinching the vote on Striker (Pyro, Windrunner), potentially Bip or Fifth (meaning my village reads on them are very wrong, and I find the next option more likely) if they wanted to get the ball rolling there. Any or all of Araris, Devo, Illwei trying to distance by going for Pyro would be my second option.

I think I have to reevaluate my thoughts entirely on the Striker train. I may have blinded myself by putting reads on there, because Quinn and Tani, along with Mat, end up in the crucial spot there for clinching that exe. Wait, I realized as typing this that the order of the votes that I copied is different from what Mat has... Storms, have I been using the wrong order? I added Mat's order in the second line. If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though... [Confusing orders abound.]

  Quote

Comparing the two, Ash, Devo x2, TJ, Pyro x2, XP, Illwei x2, Dannex, Mat, Araris x2, Windrunner show up in suspicious places to me. That puts Illwei, Pyro, Araris, and Devo in suspicious places twice. I didn't expect to see Araris or Devo multiple times if at all, so that's surprised me as I've analyzed this. Maybe I'll need to look into those two more. So solely off those voting placements, I'd rank suspicions as Illwei, Pyro, Devo, Araris, XP, TJ, Windrunner, Ash, Dannex, Mat. I might be biased in placing Pyro and Illwei at the top of the list, but my other suspicions only add to their suspicious placement. 

Taking my final takeaways from yesterday, I would say that I would take Araris, Dannex, Windrunner, and Mat off the list of interesting spots, adding Quinn and Fifth and Bip there instead. [Ah. That's why there was no Araris focus this time around. I would still wonder about Devotary.]

New suspicions order just from this: Illwei, Devo, Quinn, Ash, Fifth, TJ, Bip. With Tani maybe after them. [Why Illwei still? What reasoning? Did you abandon the Devotary point?]

I'll post more later with reactions to this thread so far, but wanted to get this up so I could think on it before I do that. 

Notes in bold because that seems like a neat way to do things.

21 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

On 3/5/2021 at 10:55 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

...Alright, I had generally village-read all three of those :P. Cool.

I want to vote Maill right out of the gate, but I'm gonna read through his stuff first. I probably shouldn't vote him right away, I don't think.

Good job Illwei :P.

Well, I am curious to see what you came up with. 

  On 3/5/2021 at 11:53 AM, Burnt Spaghetti said:

tbh atm im currently curious of if people have had any noteworthy interactions in pms with these players. Do we know if they were roleclaiming to people at all, if they had any plans or anything. Idk, any more info about them could probably have some use. Of the newly dead, bard was the only one id spoken to in pms and that was just oog conversations

XP and I had a brief conversation that I've related before. He decided not to claim to be, said he was suspicious of me, then a day or two later said those suspicions on me were all but gone and he was not sure about Quinn and Illwei now. 

Pyro and I had mostly a debate conversation about the significance of Tineye roles to the elims and how much they would want to kill one versus a Lurcher or Coinshot or Seeker. [I say Tineye is low priority because PMs are good for elims too, at least in the early game. Once the trust circles have been drawn, leaving the elims on the outside, then the Tineyes should be slaughtered to stop communications.\

Bard and I didn't have much, but I'll reference that one again later. 

  On 3/5/2021 at 0:05 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

How long must I endure this PM-unsafe generation?  (just kidding, it took me a few times getting burnt by roleclaims to turn me into an Araris-style grouch about PM safety. Y'all are just too open sometimes though )

PM safety, bah!  It's how we coordinate as a village. Elims already have their whole teams roles, while each individual villager knows only their role, so you've gotta work together and claim. [Доверяй, но проверяй, to quote our illustrious Game Master. I will note that Mai was sitting on the knowledge of Mistborn!Tani and Tani isn't dead. Same with the rest of Fallion's Four. However, it could be the 'save the new player' mentality.]

  On 3/5/2021 at 0:10 PM, Quintessential said:

The original plan wasn't even to kill XP, actually. It was me, Tani, and two others who'd all claimed to each other in a group PM, and Tani asked us for advice on who to kill. Originally we said Illwei, but then Tani and I started to get kinda worried that one of the others (the one who'd started the group) was elim and playing us. I was more thinking of it in terms of "let's do something about them if Illwei flips vil" but ig Tani took it a different direction. She switched the kill to the person she suspected and told Illwei about it. And then in the mess afterwards Tani decided not to kill either of them and to hit XP instead because she didn't really have any other suspicions. I think she didn't trust Illwei as a good kill because it was a suggestion that was entirely external (from me and the other conspirator) and hadn't come from Tani at all? idk

I'll make this clearer hopefully because there's a lot of questions about this. I started a group PM with Tani, Stick, and Quinn. I had already claimed my role to all of them (which, no, I'm not claiming here. ) , Tani had already claimed Mistborn to Quinn and I and told us she had Steel and asked who she should kill. I made the group because at the time, they were three of my highest village reads and I had already claimed, so I wanted to start to bounce ideas and suspicions off of stuff in a group. I also like to gauge reactions in groups and I'm always in PMs anyways. Tani decided to claim in that group, which I didn't expect, and so then Quinn and Stick also did. Quinn and I, in our private PM, discussed the day's lynch as well and I mentioned how I wasn't sure about sticking to my current vote on Striker of if I wanted to switch back to Illwei because  I was okay seeing either's flip. Quinn brought up that we could have Tani kill one and exe the other and there was already a train on Striker, so we could just stick to that. We brought that up in the group and Stick and Tani agreed. [When was the shift from 'Stick evil' to 'village Stick', @Mailliw73?]

Later on, when the night was extended, Stick and I were informed that Tani and Quinn had privately discussed their paranoia concerning me and especially on pointing them to Illwei. Like Quinn said, Tani took this much further and switched the kill to me, but then the night was extended and she ended up sharing that with me and then decided not to kill me or Illwei and didn't know what to do, then I proposed Pyro and XP, Stick mentioned a mild village read on Pyro but supported XP. Tani agreed to XP and that's where the kill was. I have no idea what Mat's connection to that is. [I genuinely don't understand the paranoia about Maia. I don't discount it, but I see no reasons for its existence. Also, why would a person suspicious of an individual listen to that individual's alternate suggestions? At least be consistent with your paranoia. Why discount their suggestion about Illwei but agree with them about XP?]

  On 3/5/2021 at 0:17 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

I mean, with the people Quinn and Illwei mentioned (the two of them + Maill + Tani), and my current reads list, I'm 99% sure that there's already at least one Elim in that group, so maybe this is actually for the better if people are really being this loose with roleclaims, so at least the village can be privy to some of the information the Elims already know >>

Edit: @TJ Shade, same  

Why does there have to be one elim? It was a group of 4 out of 28 players (26 living ones at the time it was made). I don't know why there would have to be one evil in there... [I'm genuinely leaning this way. I've only iso'ed Maia so far, but the fact that Tani lives slightly implies this to me. Or elim!Tani.]

  On 3/5/2021 at 0:17 PM, TJ Shade said:

  Reveal hidden contents

There is a group PM in which group claiming is going on??? -.- 

I had claims from each of the people in the group PM before I made it and I had already claimed to them. So there was already claims, the group just consolidated discussion. [Maia, we traded claims, so why wasn't I invited to the 'claimed' group PM? You sadden me greatly, and I fear our relationship will never recover from this betrayal.]

  On 3/5/2021 at 1:53 PM, _Stick_ said:

Illwei

If illwei flips village I am 99% convinced that Maill is evil

I mean, I don't think that's a necessary logical case. If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1?? I've started to realize that I've tunneled on Illwei a bit and that confirmation bias has been building on that. See more below. [And so we return to the age-old question: Why would an elim want to be wrong? Maia's reasoning has been flimsy and they've been trying to build a case out of NAI things [id est, malicious framing], but that's ultimately NAI. Elim fishing for mix, tunneling villager. The latter is slightly more likely than the former in my experience. I'd be willing to note and discard this point.]

  On 3/5/2021 at 2:14 PM, Tani said:

I killed XP cuz Matrim didn't want me to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Illwei and I kinda didn't want to kill Mailliw and Matrim and the people in my pm group both suggested XP.

Matrim says I should've killed Maill and I kinda agree.

Mat also suggested XP? What reasoning was there for that, Mat? 

Hard disagree, obviously. I still think killing Illwei could've given us good info, but too late now. [You and Illwei are the new Cage-Shuffle-Squat Duo. Knives at each others throats, except the knife here is a person with a pocket of steel and a gleaming coin stained with the blood of the innocent. Of all the choices, it may have been good if only to stop this incessant cycle of paranoia from feeding itself in a lovely impossible perpetual motion machine. Maia would also have been good for this same reason. The XP kill was mildly useless.]

  21 hours ago, Illwei said:

Just finished an ISO of Maill and all I have is confusion

some things might make sense

a lot of things feel like they don't

but @Mailliw73 are your reasons still D1 reasons? for me being an Elim?

Every cycle there I am at the top of your suspicions, but I don't see any more reasons. Last cycle there was the one about my distancing from Pyro. I guess that's something.

But every cycle you keep me up there, and yet don't vote on me.

and every cycle I've seen someone say "Maill is gonna be sus if Illwei flips vil"

and it feels to me that you've gotten yourself stuck here in this read on me. Like an Elim who has felt like you have to keep this read or look suspicious, but at the same time don't want to actually kill me, because you know you'd be next.

My notes from Maill's ISO, Hopefully the formatting is okay because I typed this up in notepad lol. Wasn't gonna post this because it's a lotta nothing and I wasn't going to post anything until I finished typing up the other stuff but I have this now and probably won't be back for a bit, so /shrug :P.

but if you wanna read it here it is

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Honestly, there's no way I'm going to read all that about my posts... [Slight addressing of Illwei here: Your insinuations about the presence of metal within my flesh wound me and bring me to the verge of murder. Alas, it seems that being mentioned by someone in passing is enough to be drenched in ink. [This is banter and joking. I am in no way serious with these lamentations of woe.] Also, malicious framing [confirmation bias, basically, but with a fancy new name that doesn't imply a village initiation of the instance. Rebranding!] is NAI in my opinion until we determine the meta for a player. [See Striker, LG73, and yes, I will shamelessly exploit them as an example until the end of days.] I've never played with Maia before. I shall note but discard the malicious framing for now but perhaps use it as evidence if I actually decide to build a case for killling Mai.]

But about you and suspicions, I think it is the D1 reasons and then I saw your vote placements and found them suspicious, but more recently I have realized that I definitely have been kinda going in circles about you and because I've had this feeling about you, I've been finding reasons that keep building that suspicion in a confirmation bias loop. I've mentioned that a bit in some PMs and have partially been intentionally harder on you in the thread to gauge reactions (yours and those willing to agree). I genuinely still feel that you are suspicious and that your actions don't make sense to me, but I have been emphasizing it more than I believe it. I think at some point, I kinda feel like you have to stick hard to suspicions even if you don't have the most solid reasons or otherwise it's just this wishy washiness that accomplishes nothing. Also, I have no problem with you dying. I did vote you D1, and everyone else just bailed on that. D2 I would've probably voted on you, but then we had coordinated Tani killing you, so I felt fine moving to Striker. I also was a fair force behind that kill attempt attempt. (yes that double attempt is intentional) So overall, I do suspect you, top three for sure, but I make it sound more intense than it is, and I'm more than fine with seeing how your flip would go to point us in a good direction. [I can understand lacking a problem with someone dying. I'm not particularly attached to Illwei's life myself, nor the life of Maia. This doesn't mean that they're in any way suspicious. For instance, Maia isn't particularly suspicious at all, except for poorly done malicious framing which seems far more like tunnelling in my humble opinion. However, I'd be open to X-ing them in lieu of actual suspicions.]

  21 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you know how active Bard was in PMs? That doesn't necessarily correspond to post count. If he was low-PM that does mean he was less likely to have told people his role and make him a better Seeker target.

So Matrim was also in the PM group and not just you, Maill, Tani, and Stick. Did he suggest Maill or XP? Going back to point 1, would Bard have known that you were a Mistborn and possibly protected you?

The last few votes on Reading were largely unnecessary. At that point it wouldn't have mattered who we voted for regardless of Reading's alignment. Why are you grouping Araris with Mat and Dannex in the same sentence as you talk about people who didn't vote on one of the two main exes? Just because Araris was the first vote on Reading?

Bard wasn't super active in my PM. He claimed Thug to me but that's it for real content. He told me he trusted FIfth, but that's the only other significant thing. I think timezones got in the way of his PM activity. 

Bard had no idea about Tani being a mistborn unless Tani told him near the end. 

Uh, good question. I'm not sure why I put him there... I think your reasoning is right, but I'm not sure what i was thinking XD

  20 hours ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Okay, so I know I said I would post some Analysis, but.....

I have finals coming up this next week 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

So I give up. People post way toooooooooooooooooooo much  

I'm just going to vote Mailliw73

Because he seems bad to me 

Uh okay... Any reasons? [I am opposed to no reasoning, 'just because' reasoning, PM reasoning, etc. Just a PSA.]

  20 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'm not a huge fan of this, tbh. Maybe you think you have a group of 4 people you can trust, but that doesn't mean that our opinions shouldn't matter? I would understand it if it had another purpose, like baiting something else, or like...I could probably think of reasons if I tried.

but 4 of you coordinating to kill striker can definitely control the thread, and who we vote out should be a discussion from all of us- I could go on a small rant here but I don't really want to :P. 4 people coordinating can really control the thread, especially when they're not worried about being seen as connected to each other.

Okay we didn't plan this exe in advance... This was after my vote was already on Striker, I think Quinn's also was, there were at least 4 votes already on Striker. We just decided that together, we suspected Striker enough that we wanted to exe him. Everyone's opinions obviously matter and it was only our 4 votes that were on him that were coordinated, the other 5 votes were people who felt he was also suspicious. Stick and Tani(if I remember right) moved their votes way at the end of teh cycle, so there were plenty of others on that train. Basically us "planning" this exe was us talking about suspicions, agreeing that we found Striker suspicious and voting him. This wasn't us planning in advance and pushing the thread any way... [I suppose that's a bit less than was implied earlier. Reasoning is always appreciated though, and I don't remember seeing any. Surely with four of you theorising about it, someone would come up with reasoning.]

Well that's a lot of stuff. Idk, but there you go. [I thank you for your efforts and do note that I would appreciate your continued existence but would be willing to instead let you perish and write a touching eulogy at your funeral.]

Again, notes in bold.

21 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Okay, I put this in my long post, but I get that some people aren't going to read it. 

Quinn and I were discussing our various suspicions on Illwei and Striker during D2. Striker already had votes on him, including mine and maybe Quinn's, I'm not sure. I said that I didn't know if I wanted to vote for Striker or Illwei and Quinn brought up the idea of exeing one and suggesting to Tani to kill the other and she proposed Illwei for the kill since Striker already had a train going. I brought up that idea in the group PM and Tani and Stick agreed that they also suspected those two enough and would kill Illwei. They then moved their votes at the end of the cycle after it was clear that Striker was getting exed. This wasn't an elaborate manipulation of the thread or bribing to gain votes or anything like that. 

Also, Ash, why in the world would we four be an elim team?? That makes no sense.

The danger of the trust circle voting is not in this instance, but in the dangerous precedent it sets. We must reject it now, or we risk implicit approval. I now understand that instead of a masking of reasoning, there was no reasoning whatsoever, which isn't much better, but it at least doesn't cut people out quite as much. Still slightly disapprove. Fallion's Four as an elim team is genuinely nonsensical.

21 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

You know what, I'm just going to go for it. Illwei. Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning. Also, at this point, it's also just partially for my own peace of mind. At the same time, I wouldn't be opposed to a Quinn exe because that would also give me some peace of mind and give me more of a read on Illwei. Sorry Quinn. 

Illwei tunneling continues. The reasoning at this point is... information? That's not the worst reasoning for a kill I've ever seen.

9 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wait, this happened? This whole time you acted confused about how Illwei knew that someone was targeting her and so I thought we figured out it was Tani that told her. You did?? O.o

And the PM group falls apart!

9 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

It’s just surprising to me that you told her and then you came to us and said something along the lines of “guys, Illwei knows someone is targeting her for death. Did any of you tell people about this?” 

That was the thing that caused all the distrust and blew everything up, so I just don’t see why you did that. Even if it came out that’s fine but it was weird that you asked who did it when it was you the whole time. 

Tani, you told her you were the coinshot friend but was that after or before the night got extended? 

Murder! Slaughter! Paranoia! Quinn, you really need to elaborate more. You have a tendency of just assuming that people understand you when your style of speaking does not lend itself to be easily understood.

9 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Oh okay I think I’m getting it, sorry for the confusion. So it was treated as a joke the whole time until Tani told Illwei at which point she realized you weren’t actually joking. Any of you three feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I just didn’t know there was this exchange between Quinn and Illwei and got all twisted up. 

Realisation dawns like the morning light.

5 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn told you there was an elim (me I’m assuming) and you just believed her? And you’re worried that I’m pocketing you? 

On a different note, I’ll come back to the mountains that were posted this morning a bit later, but Quinn, obviously you can make assumptions and you kinda have to in this game. But saying things like “elims never do ____”  or “elims will ____” in a group like this is a faulty assumption already. There’s no single way elims will act in a given scenario because each plays a different way and knowing that the assumption will be there allows them to change what they will do. I have definitely seen elims almost entirely join a train on a villager with maybe only one member of the team not joining. I’ve seen elims spread out, I’ve seen about every voting pattern there could be. I don’t think there’s a way to predict it and in stating that there is, you give the elims free rein to do the opposite and not be suspected. 

Good points.

4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

If I’m thinking of the same PM you are, then I don’t know if you’re intentionally misrepresenting what Quinn and I said or if it’s unintentional. Quinn said that if Illwei was a villager she’d begin to suspect that there was an elim in the PM group. I agreed and said that she’d be the first one I looked at and she said the opposite. That’s not the same thing as Quinn telling you that I’m an elim, you believing her, and claiming in the thread. 

Misunderstandings abound.

4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn, it’s mostly just the phrasing for me in absolutes. Elims will do XYZ or won’t do XYZ instead of something like you’ve seen it more often with one team. Idk it’s not that big of a deal I just have a gut reaction against those kinds of phrasing because I’ve specifically used that as an elim to do things that “elims won’t do”. 

Alas, syntax is the bane of all.

4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Y’known what, you’re right. I apologize for that, I misremembered that because of the context. Stick mentioned that it would suck for our plan if Illwei survived the kill and in response to that, Quinn said that there was an elim directing the group and she’d look at me. I took that to mean that if Illwei survived, then she’d think that. Not that she already thought there was an elim. But she’ll have to clarify what she meant but now I see why you interpreted it that way. I agreed to it in the way I understood it. 

That’s fair. Like i said, just a gut reaction and a general warning to people that elims will do whatever. (Especially the chaotic players in this bunch). 

Misunderstandings retreat to their closets and cupboards. Trust nothing.

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

This is most likely my last substantial post of the turn since I've got some homework that needs to get done and then we have plans tonight and then I'll be sleeping till rollover.

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Now, Fallion's Four (yes, I'm calling you that, it's the Shadesmar Eight of this game, deal with it :P), please give your reads on every other member of the group (not just like vote placement suspicions, but everything as a whole) [ @Mailliw73 @Quintessential @Tani @_Stick_ ]

Current trust of Fallion's Four:  Quinn >= Stick > Maill > Tani

Honestly, I think Stick has a point. The more I think about this, the more it feels like a bunch of villagers getting together and then falling apart from miscommunications. I think I've gotten frustrated with the whole scenario and I'm kinda sensing the same from Quinn. Stick has kinda thrown up her hands from what I can tell. So I'm going to back out of this whole thing for now. Illwei. There you go, first greened vote from me. I don't trust myself to accurately evaluate the complications between Illwei, Quinn, Tani, Stick, and I, so I'm going to back off any suspicions there for now. I'll let a Seeker scan Illwei before I try to go there again... [Concurrence. The trust circle killed itself.]

If I had to pick one of the four in the PM I'd suspect, it'd be Quinn then Tani then Stick. But like I said, I'm not going to move on anything there for a little while (assuming I don't just die here, which isn't looking likely) because I feel like it very well could be just villagers messing up.  [That's why I'm iso-ing them! I'm not looking forward to iso-ing Quinn. Quinn, why do you have to post so much? Same with Illwei. I'll have to iso them too.]

5 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing.
This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. 

Bolded the things I want to address. Sounds like you don't have any real reason to suspect me either though from that first line, so I don't understand how I went from you writing that post and wanting to put me as village to then becoming your number one suspicion. I think I'm just missing something there. [Concurrence. If there's no reason to suspect someone, then don't do it. This is also to Maia. Why do you suspect Illwei? I see no reasoning.]

The strange exchange you mention is because that was the moment I suspected you most. I didn't know how to respond, except that I genuinely did find it interesting (and my vote analysis is only based on final votes, not progression) but I also felt like you were trying to sow more distrust, so I agreed with you to avoid you coming after me. 

Again, my openness is just a style thing. I play pretty open, even if I lie about my role or something, I'm usually pretty honest about everything else. I don't get how being open is anything suspicious, I've always been a proponent of the idea that more information helps the village more than the elims, so I do my part to encourage and help with that. Also, why my flip is tied to five of your other reads, I don't get... I just have PMs with a lot of people. Also, just saw the recent message about me claiming to you on D1 and then falseclaiming after that. I claimed to almsot everyone that I PMd on D1. That's kinda a thing for me and I typically claim at least 3 different things. I do it to gauge reactions. But I pick which ones I'm willing to real claim to and which ones I'm not and that's how I decide. It's not that thought out, honestly. [Ah. I see. That's why I wasn't invited to the exclusive club.]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

Reads for now:

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I'll return later today once I've had some food and a mental break.]

So all your elim reads are everyone involved in the Fallion's Four Illwei Kill and then Ash? [I'd like to point out that being a topic of discussion does not make one suspicious.]

3 hours ago, Tani said:

 Also Maill is scary.

Just want to note, this is the second or third time that you've said this and I still don't understand why. I'm scary because people suspect me? Like what makes me scary? All I've seen from you is just following Quinn's reads and beign against me because of this "scariness". [To Tani: I also frown upon 'gut' somewhat. If Maia terrifies you, then it's your responsibility to justify it. Find something.]

@Matrim's Dice I also thought it was weird that you referenced Quinn's post and then agreed with the entire first half... but looks like you've already realized that while I was typing this. 

Anyways, final thoughts about the day (except maybe a couple brief posts will come later?):

Quinn, Tani, Stick, and Illwei are people I'm not going to go after anymore because I'm getting too invested in this idea and it's become frustrating, I think there's a chance we're all village, and I don't trust myself to do an objective analysis. 

There's clearly a difference in how I play versus how a lot of others do (which has always been the case), I think it's noteworthy that not a player I've played with before has a vote on me, but only players who haven't interacted with me before. Generational difference? Just a playstyle difference that hasn't been around or gotten used to yet? Idk, but there's something that's causing a problem. [Most likely. I think it's fine, but I suppose that other people don't.]

This took way too long... I honestly don't even want to vote, but I don't want to die. I'll see if there's another option later if I get a chance. Farewell if I die, O7 ( I liked that salute, Bip. )

Points in bold.

Conclusion as of D3: I see no reason to kill Maia. I see no reason not to kill Maia. I'd lean towards not killing Maia because I enjoy their existence to a significant degree, but the other candidate is Illwei, and I don't see any reasoning for that one either.

TL;DR: NAI!Maia.

Illwei [I am not looking forward to this.]:

Spoiler

D1

Spoiler

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Smh. there's role claiming going on and it's not to me? This is how you all got killed last game, smh :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 0:01 PM, _Stick_ said:

An early D1 train is always great to analyse in hindsight after an elim or two have been outed in some way  Good content

As long as people don't stick with it, and then get to Rollover and then end up thunderdoming Striker and someone else because - sgh. anyways- [Instead, we thunderdomed you and Quinn! Huzzah!]

  On 2/26/2021 at 0:01 PM, _Stick_ said:

FlyingBooks - they have posted once so far and it was solely to jump in and defend Gears. Nothing wrong with what they said - just something I'm going to be thinking about  

Defending Gears is a pretty standard tradition about now... :P. [I don't believe I ordered a protection squad.]

  On 2/26/2021 at 0:01 PM, Quintessential said:

But... why would a villager post anything that they know has bad ideas or fallacious reasoning? Except as a reaction test, and I don't think that's what that was  just because something doesn't seem like an elim thing to do doesn't mean that it is a villager thing to do. 

I-

Quinn

this is bad reasoning. therefore you must be an Elim. :P. [I appreciate this. Genuinely.]

--

welcome to bad reads with Illwei, the show where we...idk. Badly read people.

  On 2/26/2021 at 0:30 PM, Gears said:

Stop ninja'ing me! Your top sneaky ways are too much for my shoddy perception!

I like this line. Locktown.

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  On 2/26/2021 at 11:59 AM, Flyingbooks said:

Striker's post does seem suspicious to me, but it seems almost too suspicious to be made by an elim. As an elim, if you want to suggest a bad plan it shouldn't be discovered in minutes, but his post had enough bad ideas and fallacious reasoning that he should've known that at least one would be caught instantly.

this whole thing. Locktown.

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  On 2/26/2021 at 0:43 PM, Flyingbooks said:

If there's an elim Smoker (which I think is pretty likely), they'lll scan as a normal villager for the entire game, plus they'll also protect some of their fellow elims as well. They have a zero percent chance of dying to an elim kill because they're elims plus if people trusted their scans of them they probably wouldn't be coinshot-killed or executed either, so they'd die at a much lower rate than any other role. If somebody registers as an elim or as a non-vanilla villager then the scan should be trusted, but all vanilla villager scans should be taken with a grain of salt because they could likely be elims.

............mmmmmmmmmmmm

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  On 2/26/2021 at 0:01 PM, _Stick_ said:

I was gonna vote on you for this until I realised you're a new player xD so some hesitation in voting is warranted  I think everybody else should definitely vote or at least voice their opinions regarding any suspicions 

mmmmmmmmmmmMMMMmmm

--

Quinn

Stick [I don't speak "mmmmmmmmm".]

The beginning of the end, or at least the origin story of the new Cage-Shuffle-Squat Duo. Fairly standard Illwei, Maia not used to it, etc. Commentary in bold. Sidenote: There are 6 posts on just 1 page, I may have made a mistake in trying to iso!Wei.

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On 2/26/2021 at 0:59 PM, Quintessential said:

What happened to Stick being locktown?  

Maybe she still is :ph34r;

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  On 2/26/2021 at 1:24 PM, _Stick_ said:

I think this is a dangerous assumption to make because I'm p sure I've been falsely lynched in the past just for being a smoker lol sometimes the GMs be sneaky and straight up do not give the elim team any Smokers at all.

Or because the Elim smokers claim Vanilla Villager? :P.

Btw kinda unrelated, if anyone claims Vanilla Villager I will have no hesitation in killing you :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 1:24 PM, _Stick_ said:

Might change vote if someone more suspicious appears

I'm not doing a good enough job? ;-;

  On 2/26/2021 at 1:28 PM, Dannex said:

I would be very surprised if the Elims don't have a smoker, it seems like a very Elim-oriented role. How would a Vill smoker even use the role? Copperclouding other players seems like it would be generally a bad idea for a Vill smoker, am I wrong?

Honestly my thought? the only reason I can see village smokers being useful is in some sorta balance that I'm too tired to speculate about rn :P.

 

my dog has been howling at the top of the stairs for the past hour I both am incredibly annoyed at him and feeling bad for him.
this is the now-toothless dog.

Strong, murderous opinion about vanillagers. Discounts vil!Smokers entirely.

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wait i think i don't understand how smokers work

Confusion

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So the smoker is immune to vote manip

smoker's target would be immune as well?

but other than that

it does nothing?

how about we all just agree to be friends and not do vote manip

Friendship dies a horrible painful death quite soon.

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On 2/26/2021 at 1:53 PM, Quintessential said:

Sorry, Illwei, but as the elim Rioter I can personally guarantee that that's not going to happen  

no no see as the Elim Rioter you could also personally guarantee that that's going to happen, see! :P.

Banter

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On 2/26/2021 at 1:57 PM, Quintessential said:

Weellll but I really can't though 'cause I have my teammates to think of...

to heck with what your teammates want, Quinn. don't you love me? ;-;

Banter

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On 2/26/2021 at 2:15 PM, _Stick_ said:

Well you could, if you correctly predict the night’s elim kill  

Me trying to predict it could be enough WIFOM for the Elims to potentially not even go there, though :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 2:15 PM, _Stick_ said:

I understand what you’re saying in the first point, it’s just rubbing me the wrong way because an elim usually would hesitate to read someone village when there’s currently a train building up on em but you say he seems village so hmm

So, "an elim wouldn't read him vil" + "you're reading him vil" = Vote? I don't completely follow.

Good points. I will note that many people fail to consider that an elim doesn't want to have discrepencies.

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  On 2/26/2021 at 2:32 PM, _Stick_ said:

What's WIFOM? xD 

*couch*

IKYK

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  On 2/26/2021 at 2:34 PM, _Stick_ said:

OH princess bride excellent 

Sorry right right I will refrain from using mafia slang here :P.

The day someone uses the term "LAMIST" here is the day I kill myself

EDIT: or "OMGUS

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On 2/26/2021 at 2:38 PM, Dannex said:

Man, that omgus is pretty lamist amirite?

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I have no idea what those mean in case you couldn’t tell.

That it is, good sir. That it is.

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good. let it stay that way. :P.

Banter

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  On 2/26/2021 at 2:42 PM, Shard of Reading said:

Yeah.... Let's not use those acronyms. 

Yeah they're just

I hate them

They're meant to be like - indicators for Elim behavior in a way, but they're just

ick

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Guys I have a really important question.

It's about Stink's Name. his RP name.

Please PM me if you don't know what the question is. it is of upmost importance :P.

(Clarifying that "upmost importance" is subjective and...idk, other things here :P)

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  On 2/26/2021 at 11:05 AM, Quintessential said:

Hi everyone! I'm here  and I'm actually trying to RP consistently this game hah, like that's gonna happen. Gears' analysis and Reading's guess of team size seem reasonable to me--the AG had 27 players and 6 elims; so 6 seems pretty fair, and 7 wouldn't surprise me. 

Note that the AG also had 3 neutrals, so it's not a great comparison here, imo.

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:13 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Coinshots using their kills as often as possible. You might be wrong about someone, but even knowing that someone is village will give us information on other people.

I agree with this (maybe not "as often as possible", adding that instead of just going for who you find suspicious, looking at the thread and seeing what they think on them :P. I say this having come out of a game where the vig shot two extremely townie people because...because. :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:25 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

It might be worth waiting for an alignment scan to come up Spiked

waht I said above- I mean, you don't want to wait and then die before you can actually do anything :P.

But also possibly a bit premature, but if that does happen, I'd say leave them for a coinshot to take care of at night, and continue voting like norma- wait we don't

we don't even know if there is a coinshot huh. Well if there is, and I assume we'll know by the time we get a result on a Spiked, and also this isn't really relevant much until we get there so-

well, uh, Coinshot, why don't you PM me  we can discuss more there :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:32 AM, Quintessential said:

This just feels like an attempt to throw shade on someone to me

er, wouldn't call that shade really? Wasn't he directly voting gears? that's more of an accusation than shade.

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:33 AM, Shard of Reading said:

Or, they could be implying that they are vanilla

I'd say limit speculation about people's roles in-thread. (just PM me instead :P.)

Yall can make the argument that "the elims probably figured this out already" but I-

I was just on an Elim team on MU with some top players

and there were 20 of us

and we didn't get a single role right. >>

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:45 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Ahhh the train has picked upppp and now I'm wondering about Quinn and trying to make sense of me elim-reading her every single game -__-

  On 2/26/2021 at 11:47 AM, Quintessential said:

Well, given that the last time you elim-read me I was the villager who guessed the entire elim team, and the time before that I was the villager that neutral!you ended up pocketing... really, it's when you vil-read me that you should be worried  

Idk why i had these quoted tbh

I've spent the past two hours playing 1v1v1v1 chess it's both the worst and best thing I've ever found :P.

I forgot to post these a bit ago so-

And yes the words are below the spoiler. Deal with it. I'm not moving the spoiler and the-

And I come back yet another hour later. And. I'm actually going to post it this time.

EDIT:

1) okay we're on page 5 i did not get notifs for new posts what

2) did not clarify that this was me actually reading- I was going to start this post with like "Well, I've been bored so I decided to actually go back and read the thread" but then I immediately got un-bored and distracted and- well- :P.

Good points, banter about PM claiming, shade vs accusation.

Quote

 On 2/26/2021 at 6:11 PM, The Young Pyromancer said:

There's not much point in trying to get a meta read on me. I tend to switch things up depending on the setup of the particular game.

I don't understand this directed at quinn? when? Quinn has never played before with you?

  On 2/26/2021 at 5:57 PM, Quintessential said:

as well as for his elim read of me, curiously enough XD because village!Matrim has a history of misreading village!me over little stuff like D1 votes and D1 fake-claims and D1... well, basically everything in D1 lol.

I have comments on this but my brain won't put them in words

  On 2/26/2021 at 6:11 PM, The Young Pyromancer said:

The only real thing to keep in mind is that people tend to be wrong about me more often then they're right, so if I'm vaguely suspicious but have been avoiding an interrogation, I'm probably village, and if I've been consensus village since D2, there's a 50/50 chance I'm spiked.

Can I say this for me too? :P. Except, I usually manage to get almost voted out at least once, and then the Elims kill me :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 5:57 PM, Quintessential said:

Stick and Books are... probably right that elim!Striker might have been more careful with what he said? Yeah.

I say this as someone who is village reading Striker, but also faulty reasoning

  On 2/26/2021 at 5:57 PM, Quintessential said:

Books: null elim for pure hard gut and I have no idea why. Just... feels elim. dunno, you can just ignore this one I think XD it'll probably change.
Illwei: mild elim for gut and for following some of the same... I guess I'd call them patterns? That she had in the only other elim game I played with her, but not in most of the village games I've played with her (take this with a grain of salt, though, because the elim game was the most recent one so it's fresher in my mind than all the others). Examples of this: joking about me being elim (which is the first thing I noticed, and what I voted her for), voting me and then unvoting me and voting someone else in the same post (which I probably only noticed because it was me both this game and last game, but I don't think I've ever seen e!her (edit: v!her, mistype oof) do that), more or less ignoring the major discussion going on (Striker/Mat), and so on.

Following the same patterns is another word for meta, Quinn, so just say it, and then read it, and then go "Man, when people say I'm against my meta they're always wrong, because they don't have enough to go off of" and then look at your case on me and go "oh" :P. 

Also

Did I even do that in MR48? because i thought the only time I did that was QF50? I don't really remember all my posts though so- :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 6:50 PM, Mailliw73 said:

the vote on Quinn then the retraction and vote on Stick was...interesting

:).

--

Still feeling good about Books, less so but still good about gears, and imma add in there Striker at the lowest tier, and Danex somewhere in there too.

I'd also like to comment that Meta is not the only D1 tool so please don't treat it as such :P. Quinn, you should be the first person saying this, and thinking it, and you know it :P.

Tunnelling!Quinn. I concur.

Quote

  On 2/26/2021 at 9:00 PM, Quintessential said:

Yes you did.

So the actions themselves look similar but if you look closer, then that's not the same thing :P. I'm done spending time on this though :P.

Quinn is just wrong here.

Quote

On 2/26/2021 at 9:46 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Stink- Hmmmmmmmmm no reason whatsoever

I have decided that I am a master at reading Stink because of LG73 no one is allowed to tell me otherwise even stink I do not accept criticism and I have decided that Stink is village.

  On 2/26/2021 at 9:46 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Gears- Seems normal to me, plus a paragraph or two that seems villagery in nature. Could probably be in the first category, honestly.

I'd like to add onto this not neccesarily something I feel is AI, but Gears feels more casual then not in his posts rn :P.

  On 2/26/2021 at 9:46 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ- Not quite sure why, tbh :P.

Good good, you have adopted my "TJ has to be Elim one of these times, yes? :P.

Either that or you just have something against Fleur Tieste and his pickup lines... :P.

I vibe with most of these.

ngl not feeling great about TUO rn but he has a total of one post so Imma let that simmer on low for another 45 minutes til it's condensed a bit more

  On 2/26/2021 at 9:50 PM, StrikerEZ said:

“hey don’t worry about the elims figuring out roles because elims are just bad at that.”

Hm? I was saying the opposite: I don't think that people should speculate in public about roles. I was defending a statement that hadn't been attacked yet because it usually does get attacked. Am I that hard to understand?

  On 2/26/2021 at 9:50 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Like...I understand joking about wanting people to PM and claim to you

Who said it was a joke 

It seems that Illwei is incomprehensible. Alas. They have made moderately good sense thus far. [I also resent the insinuations of casuality, but that's another matter.]

Quote

On 2/27/2021 at 0:25 AM, Biplet said:

Where's the :thonk: emote when you need it? Interesting you're outright saying you want people, specifically coinshots, to pm claim to you. Though I don't think an elim would be so bold outright. Who knows though... suspicious.

Banter

Quote

On 2/27/2021 at 3:18 AM, _Stick_ said:

The reason I took the vote off Books was because I didn't want to tunnel - I know that can get annoying

I think it was at an awkward time, and then along with that- well, I wouldn't call it tunneling at all yet, because D1 votes are initially meant for pressure and whatnot, and you kept your vote on them for a whole 30 seconds it felt like, which....felt useless.

  On 2/27/2021 at 3:18 AM, _Stick_ said:

if she were an elim I would expect more people coming in to defend her

Perhaps the elim team is doing the incredible strategy of "bus the Elim Smoker" that no one would ever suspect. 

  On 2/27/2021 at 3:18 AM, _Stick_ said:

It just seems like a very village train-of-thought. I don't see an elim being so passively confident in their false village identity that they go ahead and read other players village purely for sharing a mind-meld moment.

I'd argue that this isn't really village indicative, at least for Quinn, who has watched how many times Matrim has ended up trusting me because we have the same reads. :P.

  On 2/27/2021 at 8:37 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm only ignoring it because it's a special case. It's not a read I can trust, and I know that  

I feel like for me it's less of me not trusting the read, and more of me knowing that I'll find them sooner or later as the game goes on :P.

  On 2/27/2021 at 8:50 AM, Quintessential said:

Also, would note that Matrim's "reads-list" feels odd to me. iirc Mat normally just does a list labeling everyone null or null village or mild elim or whatnot. What's with the "Tiers of whether I'd exe these people or not"? Feels hedgy to me 

This feels like unnecesary shade :P. Are people not allowed to change up their playstyle? :P. Where was your getting after me in LG73 for never really giving reads, when I did that before?

  On 2/27/2021 at 10:58 AM, Quintessential said:

This is true. But like. We're all kinda voting on each other? XD if that makes sense. We early actives tend to form our opinions of other early actives before our opinions of anyone else... which is probably part of the problem : P I am genuinely more sus of Illwei than anyone else, for example, but ig you're right that that could be because she's talking a lot. idk...

It's kind of hard to get opinions on everyone else when the other people aren't talking as much, yes :P.

  On 2/27/2021 at 10:55 AM, _Stick_ said:

Anyway Tani's votes are fascinating to say the least, but ngl I'm not receiving great vibes  

I guess I'm the odd one out here that thinks Tani would be receiving a little more coaching if she was an Elim in her fist game? Her votes are all over the place and careless and she doesn't have reasoning and she doesn't plan to :P.

Stick

If I have to start defending myself soon I'm going to be sad

EDIT:

@Gears What's your thoughts rn

Again, good points.

Quote

On 2/27/2021 at 11:43 AM, Quintessential said:

I still read Mat village I just... noticed the difference

Quote "Unnecessary Shade."

  On 2/27/2021 at 11:43 AM, Quintessential said:

That's part of what I meant when I said I dismissed it because she's new, so no, you're not the odd one out. 

I guess another thing I didn't add onto is that I don't find that villager-y just because she's new

  On 2/27/2021 at 11:43 AM, Quintessential said:

...you give reads? D1?

So I have decided that Striker and Quinn (especially, who is reading me off of meta but can't remember my previous games) cannot read me and the only barely acceptable vote on me is from Mailliw :P.

Illwei is actually making sense.

Quote

 On 2/27/2021 at 11:49 AM, Quintessential said:

Just, not looking at meta

oh look the magic words.

I'm not taking meta arguments from you when you don't remember what I do in games. You're trying to compare everything to the MR, and not thinking about my other games. you're taking this one point and starting to confbias everything from there, when the "there" isn't a valid point to begin with.

  On 2/27/2021 at 11:49 AM, Quintessential said:

Also who exactly was it who caught elim!you last game? I can definitely read you sometimes, though I've honestly no idea whether this is one of them.

Who was it that caught Elim!me? was it you? was it the 6 people who said they didn't think I was an Elim but chose not to vote?

On that, yeah. 1 game. If I had a nickel for how many times you got frustrated at people for trying to use your meta on you, when you've only had like, 4 games as either alignment? you've seen a total of one Elim game from me, and it's at the top of your mind, and you're struggling to try and match everything you find to that picture, when if you chose to look deeper you'd see there's not really anything there.

anyways I'm not going to argue with someone in a tunnel, because it's pointless.

Village reading Quinn a bit, also Tani and Danex I don't want killed today.

EDIT:

  On 2/27/2021 at 11:51 AM, STINK said:

Man all the active people in this thread are people who've sent me like 1 PM and peaced out what'd I do

what am i chopped liver

Yet more sound points.

Quote

  On 2/27/2021 at 0:05 PM, Quintessential said:

so it's... not really the same thing. 

just as what I did in this the same thing as what I did in MR48.

My vote on Quinn was a statement that apparently didn't make sense to anyone but me :P. Quinn was saying that these people had bad reasoning, and that's not a village thing to do. She also had bad reasoning herself. So she can't hold everyone to a double standard or whatever that's called. If your suspicious activities are things that you do as village then maybe they're not as Elim-Indicative as you think.

In the MR I was dead I felt, both because the village didn't get on and because half of my teammates didn't get on. So I tried some last hope attempt in directing it onto Ash because people had suspected him.
From a village!me perspective, I was voting ash to see what you would do, you having him in your top elim reads.

  On 2/27/2021 at 0:05 PM, Quintessential said:

because I was a little busy trying to make sense of the Mat-Striker thing

Welcome to tunneling 101 with Illwei.
--
If people keep making me explain my actions it's going to turn into a sad day for the Illwei

More good points.

Quote

  On 2/27/2021 at 0:28 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

Killing vanillagers or Smokers for their role is, as I've stated above, a bad idea both on a meta level and a strategic one

Has nothing to do with the fact that they have the role, and more to do with someone deciding to claim that in thread: Why? Why claim Vanillager in thread? What would be the point other than to hide yourself from a seeker?
I'm not saying "let's kill all the vanillas!" at all- I'm saying that, as of right now, I don't see any village reason to claim that role.

Well, there wouldn't be a reason now that you've sworn to murder them. What if a vanillager wanted to claim?

Quote

TJ Shade

Illwei, I always prefer reasoning's existence to a lack thereof.

Quote

 On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Quintessential said:

aHAH! So you admit it! jk jk lol ik what you mean.

 a little Freudian slip from illwei there? :P.

  On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Quintessential said:

Er... yeah no that didn't make sense.

??

I interpreted book's comment as talking about how Elims are generally more aware of what they're typing. if they're casing someone who's village then they'd know that it's bad reasoning or whatnot. A villager wouldn't.

  On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Quintessential said:

Which would have come off as rly odd to me if you were village, because I was reading him as "null elim" and it was literally for being inactive, a thing which he'd said in blue text he would do, so I couldn't very well pursue it with a vote. idk why I'm even quoting this actually lol

Quinn you find everything I do odd. :P. Don't deny it :P.

  On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Quintessential said:

(and don't try to tell me I was imagining that Illwei, because I know I wasn't--you even pointed out at the time that you were acting different than usual).

In the MR? yeah, I tried to hope that someone would ikyk it and let me be. Alas....

  On 2/27/2021 at 1:01 PM, Quintessential said:

I got sussed for like half of the MR for a single comment I made halfway through D1 that was meant as a joke but everyone took it seriously for some reason?

Did everyone take it seriously or did Illwei try her hardest to exaggerate the comment to get Quinn killed :P.

Banter, points. [If it seems like this is low effort, it's late at night but if I don't finish now, I won't finish by rollover.

Quote

  On 2/27/2021 at 2:26 PM, Mailliw73 said:

I think the voting she’s doing is more inline with her chaotic nature but the arguments with Quinn haven’t been so there’s a disconnect there that I’m interested in.

I am no longer accepting arguments from Mailliw, as he has now seemingly resorted to using meta that he doesn't know smh. :P.

Is it illegal for me to decide to have a non-chaotic game? and what defines chaotic? :P. If you want to take the time to make a meta case against me, feel free to go back and read the games I've played. Everything since LG67 excluding MR43 and MR47 :).

Good points.

Quote

 On 2/27/2021 at 3:06 PM, Quintessential said:

Still wanna know why you unvoted Stick...

Banter

Quote

On 2/27/2021 at 3:14 PM, Tani said:

How often are there newbies who are evil? Are the numbers skewed?

It's all RNG, so who knows. Theoretically it could be all newbies, but...

Guys if Tani flips E I'm going to have some serious questions :P.

Banter

Quote

There is no reason to post this other than to share with all of you the very important 

Banter

Quote

On 2/27/2021 at 4:27 PM, Biplet said:

Okay I'm going to be the new guy and say it's very hard to make a vote decision when half the reasoning in the thread is based on previous games and playstyles. Is that something that happens a lot here? 

Unfortunately yes, fut fortunately for you, Mailliw knows nothing about me, and has yet figured out how to somehow construct a meta argument about me :P. I believe in you :P.

This is, however, where I get frustrated at how there is no reason for people to vote either Quinn or Me. it's not a thunderdome. there are 25 other players (excluding you, you being the reader of this) and yet people get stuck on those things :))).

  On 2/27/2021 at 4:26 PM, Mailliw73 said:

In addition, the more I look at the way Illwei has voted and the way Illwei has replied to Quinn, they feel like two different people. Like one is elim and the other is elim trying to play it off like village.

...cool? I donno how to defend against...that...so...coolio. you do you :P.

I didn't like how you jumped on me, and how your reasoning has shifted. It feels more like you're looking for a reason to kill me and stay on me, rather than actually trying to either find villagers or find Elims.

I love how I seem to be at the top of your mind, very flattering :P. but do you have any other thoughts? You shade Quinn in your post I see. That's not a point for me seeing you as village :P.
--
Quinn has almost 60 posts guys. I don't even have 30, and I'm second highest poster :P.

Again, tunnelling Mai. 

Quote

  On 2/27/2021 at 4:43 PM, Biplet said:

Bit defensive, really. Point two for me to keep my vote on you. Anyway, there are 25 other players, yet I know nothing about any of them. All information I can gather is based on this thread, and the people who have posted the most are... well, you guessed it. Hard to make a judgement on someone who's done nothing other than some rp, or said they'll come back for discussion later ;).

My problem isn't the fact that people are thinking it's a quinn/me thunderdome now, it's the fact that people wait this long to vote :P. When they do that, all it leaves is the few people who do vote in the beginning of the cycle to choose the wagons for the day.

This is something that I have brought up in way more than one game. And people still don't care to try and change it. It's like the Activity issue with the more someone talks the more you have reason to suspect them. If you don't pressure people earlier into the cycle, then no one has much reason to talk if they don't already want to. They might think that the more active people have it covered. or...idk.

But when that happens the Vote can solidify on villagers very quickly. LG73 and Gears and Mat were the two candidates on D1 from the very beginning. then it was me and Mat. :P.

And in a me/quinn thunderdome I always lose here, because I don't think Quinn is an Elim right now :). I can't come up with a case that people would follow because I don't believe in it :).

It's a meta problem that no one wants to try and fix, for however much people might say they do, just like the Activity killing thing :).

@STINK : @The Windrunner Supreme and @Daisy are the two players who haven't spoken yet. Burnt, Devo, and Ventyl all have one post, and Bard, Gears, TJ, and Ash all have 2. Maybe ash has three now.

How do we fix this problem? People necessarily form more concrete conclusions about the chatty ones, about the ones we've been talking about. How can we ask them to ignore that?

Quote

Apologies if you feel like I'm personally attacking you, I didn't mean to mean anything like that.

Illwei

*head pat*

Quote

Hi

Illwei went and took a break and hopefully Chillwei is here to stay

(Edit: this first bit was at quinn. I had quoted a post...it...

...er...

Disappeared???)

Why is she now village reading me??? Even though she was like “I was just in a tunnel, now I’m out, pog!”
I do think that if she was an Elim she would stick with it rather than switch off: example in QF50

I still don’t think Books is an Elim. They felt very genuine in their thoughts/progressions earlier and I think they’re a lot more...stiff? as an Elim?
I've talked to Mat about this- and- I don't understand Mat saying? he's okay? with killing books?

EDIT:

Oh look two posts i didn't see

Uh okay that's cool mat

uh If im honest I can't bring myself to read the block of text at the bottom of Gears' post someone wanna summarize it for me?

Good points. [Please read my posts.]

Quote

  On 2/27/2021 at 9:48 PM, _Stick_ said:

So here are the reads I promised:

I have 33 posts, and yet you don't...have a read on me? If you're trying to avoid something let me know there :P.

I didn't get a read either. Slightly miffed.

Quote

 On 2/27/2021 at 10:12 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Perhaps because she doesn't want to vote for Books, who's a main alternative

I don't want to vote books,

and...i...

I also think I messed up my voting

and

i don't know

how to

fix it

so

uh

Of course.

Quote

TJ Shade

...

Illwei

...

...

is...does...this...fix it? ;-;;; ... ://

[/b]color[/reading]

EDIT:

help

Reading

smeone kill me

Fixing things.

Conclusion as of D1: Also NAI, but much less noted than Mai.

N1

Spoiler

Quote

Help I'm confused and I've never even seen Wyrm on the forums I shouldn't be confused rn

Banter

Quote

PEBKAS

....

Parentheses, Exclaimation Points, Brackets....Kas?

EDIT:

...Exponents...

Banter

Quote

is kas kas or wyrm i don't know anymore

Banter

Quote

I re read some last cycle stuff and do people still not understand my thing on wanting to kill claimed vanillagers or not I donno

  On 2/28/2021 at 3:18 PM, TJ Shade said:

3(I)-2(S)-2(B)-2(R) - 14 hrs BR

3(I)-3(B)-3(R)-2(S) - 13 hrs BR (here?)

4(B)-3I-3R-2S - 11hrs BR (sleep?)

4B-2I-2R-2S - 10:45 BR

5B-2R-2S-1I - 10 hrs BR (no point in Soothing here)

5B-4R-2S - 6:30 BR

I didn't realize you had taken over the puzzle hunt

Banter. [I understand your claiming vanillager point]

Quote

  On 2/28/2021 at 3:55 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Now, if a super sus person is scanned as a vanillager I might get behind that but otherwise it’s a no.

you still don't understand but that's fine

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:09 PM, Ventyl said:

Also, I couldn’t have been vote manipulated

oh

Good points.

Quote

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:16 PM, Ventyl said:

Now, but if I scan and come back as Village Vanilla, then don’t I just make myself look stupid?

that's a bit too much wine for now, don't you think?

IKYKIKYKIKYKIKYK...

Quote

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:17 PM, The Unknown Order said:

Let's translate this thing.

I was thinking that after you take the full names of the people from the letters, you use the numbers next to them to index them and pull out those letters, and then those create some sorta anagram because no anagram escapes this Illwei, no sir.

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:20 PM, Ventyl said:

Man, this is why I hate getting roles that are determined by the meta to be more valuable for elims 

how dare The Meta.

Banter

Quote

I got a bowl of popcorn but this show isn't making much sense

Banter

Quote

On 2/28/2021 at 4:41 PM, Ashbringer said:

please don't say more there's too many claims going around anyways help my poor PM safe brain

don't worry, we ain't in PMs rn

Banter

Quote

On 2/28/2021 at 4:41 PM, Ashbringer said:

claim Thug

They could also just not claim- just putting that out there

Good point

Quote

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:47 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

Y'all. Please. Forget PM safety, how about thread safety? There aren't enough Lurchers to cover every soul that claims a role >> Besides that, anyone sewing chaos by claiming a role publicly is getting suspicion from me from now on. If you want to confuse the storms out of me kindly have the courtesy to shoot me a PM and do it there instead >>

I claim Coinshot

but yeah

Please don't claim in thread. I am definitely someone who has the credibility or whatnot to say this.

Thread claiming bad- it's better to claim to people in PMs.

People is me.

Thread claiming is dangerous. PM claiming is dangerous in a different way. This is the Wei.

Quote

On 2/28/2021 at 4:52 PM, Quintessential said:

 Illwei, Ash just claimed vanilla. You gonna do something about that?

Well given my most recent claim of coinshot, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to :P.

Banter

Quote

  On 2/28/2021 at 4:58 PM, Ashbringer said:

I didn't claim vanilla, I claimed vanilla-cursed. I'm almost always vanilla 

if it's not role madness, I'm either Vanilla or a Lurcher or a PM role or a mix of both fun facts

Also if there is a spoiler with more than one spoiler in it I will not be opening it

Banter

Quote

On 2/28/2021 at 5:12 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Guys, I'm just gonna say that if I see another post with only one spoiler thingy in it and nothing else, I will not be humoring you. 

mindmeld lockcoinshot

Banter

Quote

yo can someone tell me what avalon is

EDIT:

right as I sent this one of my contacts got back to me so disregard this

Banter

Conclusion as of N1: Much the same as D1, mostly good points and banter here. They are far less contentious than Mai, but that means nothing.

D2

Spoiler

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

N2

Spoiler

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

D3

Spoiler

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

 

 

[Fifth Scholar]

Spent too long typing this up but I needed some analysis so yay

Starting page 3, vote reasoning not counting joke votes on GMs:

Burnt on Illwei: none

Stick on Illwei: flip will yield info on Maill?

Tani on Maill: none

Illwei on Maill: Long ISO I am not reading, tunnelling too much on her, stuck with suspicion or he looks suspicious

TWS on Maill: “he seems bad”

Araris on Quinn: suspicion that group PM was manipulating Tani into killing XP / was beginning to act mayor-y

Maill on Illwei: “reasons given above” (which seem unclear but eh)

Mat on Maill: no immediate explanation given 

TJ on Ash: lingering suspicion from last cycle’s vote on TUO, uncertainty on other lynches

Quinn on Maill: *head swims reading post* that’s probably some decent analysis even if I disagree with the Maill/Illwei stuff. Votes Maill because the (extensive) assumptions she makes don’t line up with him being village. Seems to have put some thought into this

Stick on Ash: agrees with TJ’s reasoning, adds that village!Ash would have voted to save themselves but elim!ash let the lynch be led away from them

Quinn on Araris: gonna assume the reasoning is buried in those long analysis posts and arguments that I skimmed (mostly that Araris has been doing Not Village Things (™) which I can maybe get behind but I tend to agree with Araris here that the things for which he’s being accused are NAI for him. It’s valid to suspect him for other reasons though, mostly his analysis process, which is different than what I remember from village!Araris)

Elandera on Quinn: none

Stink on Quinn: bad PM vibes/no PMs with her

Quinn on Maill: self preservation

Illwei on Dannex: none 

Tani on Stick: none, but wants to move off Maill

Tani back on Maill: gut

Fifth on Illwei: pressure from D1/2 evaporated, not suspicious of Maill / liked him going after Illwei, tired and sad

Biplet on Maill: thinks someone in PM group is evil, “agrees with others’ reasoning on Maill”

...

So. Collective reasoning on the leading shrekkings: 

Illwei: none, flip will give info, unclear reasons, pressure from D1/2 evaporated, don’t want to vote Maill

Maill: none, suspicion he’s tunnelling and can’t back off without looking more suspicious, “seems bad,” none, PoE based on assumptions (analysis heavy but I don’t necessarily agree with it), self preservation, gut, agreement with previous reasons

Quinn: thinks she might have been manipulating Tani or pulling strings, none, bad PM vibes

Ash: suspicion of TUO vote from last cycle, uncertainty on other shrekkings available, didn’t vote in self-pres when he could/should have

...

Based on the above it’s hopefully clear why I don’t really like any of the leading options here. I am going Illwei Ash because it is the shrekking choice that actually has people on it who seemed to have arrived at conclusions in a manner other than sheeping, convenience, or no apparent methodology at all, and because the Maill wagon seems like a carnival of distraction which the Elims can only be gleefully happy about getting pushed forward with so little concrete evidence (a lot of “none,” “gut” and “what everyone else said” is present on that wagon). I don’t get the Quinn votes either. Illwei I’m happy to make a more thorough case against but this late in the day I doubt she’s getting shrekked. 

it’s 12:35 am, so goodnight  

EDIT: forgot to mention TJ and Stick are two of my strongest village reads, another reason I felt good about the Ash wagon, so yeah. Not sure what to make of Quinn, as I liked neither her analysis nor the points later raised against her  

Edited March 7, 2021 by Fifth Scholar

[Biplet]

3 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

actually has people on it who seemed to have arrived at conclusions in a manner other than sheeping, convenience, or no apparent methodology at all

I mean, is it such a bad thing to agree with others' reasoning, especially if you've been quietly suspicious of the person up for exe for a while?