Mat Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 [I'm expecting to be killed. I've left enough of my thoughts that I think you'd know where I would go in whatever situation happens, so I don't feel the need to repeat myself. If I survive, that's great If not, farewell and good luck] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--- Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Random Bystander i'm giving up. @Dannex i see you viewing the thread. Want to make it a tie to be nice to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted February 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 The cycle is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted February 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Illwei was running around, delivering messages. Suddenly, her best friend Qwinn ran up to her and stabbed her. Third of the Dawn and Philico also suddenly attacked her. She managed to bring down Philico in the struggle, but she still died in the end. Illwei has died! She was a Saboteur Messenger. Matrim's Dice has died! He was a Crewmember. The Aviar Holding Area has been sabotaged! Vote Count: Illwei (3): Liranil, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential Random Bystander (2): Illwei, Condensation Kings_way (1): Random Bystander Condensation (1): Dannex GM Notes: The cycle will end on February 14th, at 5:00 PM EST. Don't forget to put your actions in! Remember that each player can only make one one-on-one PM per cycle, unless they are a Messenger. Remember to include me in all PMs you make! @Young Bard is receiving a warning for inactivity! If they do not post this cycle, they will be replaced. Ashbringer has been replaced by @Flyingbooks! Please welcome him to the game. Hospital Document Ship Status: Spoiler Role-Specific: Aviar Holding Area Brig Main Office Laboratory Trapper’s Quarters General: Crew’s Mess Hospital Player List: Spoiler 1. Ashbringer - AraRaash AKA First of the Bone / @Flyingbooks 2. @Quintessential 3. The Unknown Order - Third of the Moon Crewmember 4. @Gears - Fourth of the Dark 5. @Liranil - Third of the Dawn 6. Archer - Third of the Eclipse Crewmember 7. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel / @Condensation 8. @Dannex 9. BrightEyes2 - Second of Noon Crewmember Security Officer 10. Matrim's Dice - Philico Crewmember 11. @Kings_way - Sixth of the Twilight 12. @Shard of Reading 13. @Random Bystander - First of the Stars 14. Illwei Saboteur Messenger 15. @Young Bard - Second of Daybreak 16. TJ Shade - Sixteenth of the Night Crewmember 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyingbooks Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Can somebody fill me in on what's happened so far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liranil Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) Third of the Dawn smiled, glad that the group had successfully removed one of the Saboteurs. "For the Thirds!" Guuuuuys we actually got one!! Ngl, Illwei almost had me there at the end, I nearly switched off there at the end. I gotta go reread Illwei's posts now, especially from before she was under suspicion. 46 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said: Can somebody fill me in on what's happened so far? Welcome to the game! Unless somebody else jumps in before me, I can give you a detailed-ish summary in a couple of minutes. Edit: But also someone please post cuz I don't wanna double post Edited February 12, 2021 by Liranil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 48 minutes ago, Liranil said: Edit: But also someone please post cuz I don't wanna double post Here you go! I'm not sure what your analysis will include so I'll hold off on even starting mine saying anything until after it's posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liranil Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) Okay, so my scatterbrained summary/commentary on the game so far (there's not a whole lot of substance but y'know): - The hospital is sabotaged, so the doctor is just in there by themselves. (@Doctor, I think an Aviar with powers similar to tin would be cool, that enhances your senses/makes you more aware of your surroundings. As for suggestions about what you could talk about... You could say which Brandon Sanderson character you think each of us would be! XD). The Aviar holding area was sabotaged this time so anybody with Aviar is now vulnerable. I believe we get the Brig back next round? Correct me if that's wrong though. BrightEyes was a security officer and died, so hopefully there's another security officer, or else the brig won't do us much good. - Illwei was an imposter. So if we're right about 4 imposters, then there are still 3 left. (@Quintessential: You had a Illwei/Bard/Ash/Kings imposter team theory last round, what are your thoughts on that now that Illwei's flipped elim?) Illwei was also a messenger and I think someone called that in C1? I'm going to reread through all of Illwei's posts in isolation in a bit but there's a lot of them. - For more detailed summary of everybody's posts, Ashbringer did a nice post here and Shard of Reading also did a post-by-post summary of C1 here. Also, as a side note, @Straw, if someone has an Aviar, would it say so in the write-up? Edited February 13, 2021 by Liranil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, Liranil said: Also, as a side note, @Straw, if someone has an Aviar, would it say so in the write-up? What do you mean? If they were attacked then it would show that they were protected, same as if they were thrown in the brig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liranil Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Straw said: What do you mean? If they were attacked then it would show that they were protected, same as if they were thrown in the brig. Sorry, I should have clarified. If they get exed, would we be told that they had an Aviar? Since the Aviar doesn't protect from the exe, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Liranil said: Sorry, I should have clarified. If they get exed, would we be told that they had an Aviar? Since the Aviar doesn't protect from the exe, right? Well yeah, Aviar Holder is a role, so it'd be revealed if they were voted out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liranil Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Straw said: Well yeah, Aviar Holder is a role, so it'd be revealed if they were voted out. Okay, thanks. Just wanted to double check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condensation Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 My RNG... led me wrong?! What a totally unexpected predicament! Yeah, you had me there at the end, Illwei. Good thing I wasn't on to switch my vote. To be clear, I took a very long nap. My cat likes to sleep on me, so I couldn't get up without disturbing him. Or did I? Was I actually scheming and kind of hoping my elim teammate wouldn't die? You'll never know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 This is the same sort of analysis as I did last cycle, but extended a bit (by which I mean a lot lol). Spoiler Last cycle, I concluded that out of [Matrim, Liranil, Illwei] I didn't think more than one could be elim. I'm not sure what it means that Illwei killed Matrim, eliminating him from the pool. I get the feeling that Illwei may have been trying to frame Liranil? Or that Liranil is actually an elim, but that feels more like tinfoil to me than that Liranil is a villager who's gotten consistently caught in the crossfire. Currently reading Liranil village, especially since she voted on Illwei when the votes were so spread out that she probably could have started a counter-train pretty easily. Spoiler Second thing that I did yesterday, though I didn't use it very much, was look at poke-votes. The ones that occurred: Matrim poke-voted Bard. Archer poke-voted Orlok/Connie. Illwei poke-voted Quinn. Bard poke-voted Archer. Bard poke-voted Random. Illwei poke-voted Reading. Liranil poke-voted Kings. Still not very helpful. I'm not even slightly tempted to mark Reading as vil because of this--Illwei is one of the players I could totally see setting up a WIFOM by voting on elim!Reading. I don't honestly know why I put this in here at all XD poke-votes probably aren't the best analysis tool. Spoiler Okay, here's the second most important part of this post (most important is the kind-of-ISO that I will probably do on Illwei). That's right, you guessed it, folks! It's vote-count time! C1: TUO (4): Liranil, Quinn, TJ, Bard Liranil (2): Matrim, TUO Matrim (1): Illwei Orlok/Connie (1): Archer Bard (1): Dannex Thoughts on this: once again, I'd find it odd for TUO to have been an all-vil train, though not impossible. Of Liranil and Bard, I still think Liranil is village (pending further analysis, anyway) so Bard is definitely still on my sus list. Also, I'm undeservedly proud that I was right about what Illwei did C1--apparently sometimes people do play elim the way I do . Nothing on here is majorly different, apart from that. Well, except we know that the Liranil train is all vil. I'd be way more sus of that not picking up if TUO had flipped elim, but since they didn't... yeah, idk, I guess that's still on my radar, but for now I'm not too concerned about it. C2: Brighteyes (4): Ash/Books, Liranil, Matrim, Quinn Quinn (4): Brighteyes, Illwei, TJ, Bard Do I get to say this clears me? That aside, if I'm assuming that Illwei's compatriots were paying just enough attention (or Illwei was paying just enough attention) to avoid all voting on the same person... oof idk that almost does make me less sus of Bard. I guess... look, here's the thing. I'm working off the assumption that every villager who's died or almost died to the exe had at least one elim on them. If I require that, then the two simplest explanations are that Bard and Ash are both elims, or that Liranil is elim. The latter would be the ideal explanation by Occam's Razor, but I also still think Liranil is vil. Pending further analysis, that is, because really when I read back through the thread last cycle I was focusing my analysis on Illwei more than anyone. I might decide to at least look at Liranil more closely now, if only to appease the ghost of Mat so he doesn't haunt me forever C3: Illwei (3): Liranil, Matrim, Quinn Random (2): Illwei, Orlok/Connie Kings (1): Random Orlok/Connie (1): Dannex Okay, so. I'm. Not sure what to make of this cycle tbh. There are so few votes on Illwei that unless every other person being voted for was also elim, an active elim team could probably have shifted the votes onto someone else and stalled for a couple of cycles. So... I mean, at this point I'm gonna assume that at most one other active person (which would be Liranil) is elim. Of course, that's cuz basically the only two active people left alive are myself and her. : P I'll have to go back and look at the history of the votes a little bit more closely, which I'll do in... another section of this post, at some point? idk. but as things are, I can't draw any conclusions using my one-elim-per-exed-villager analysis thing, since we didn't exe a villager. Will do an ISO later. Busy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liranil Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Also, last round, there were 12 of us, and only 7 people voted. It kinda stinks that two of the most active people are gone (although one of them was an imposter but still). I wanna see some more action. (I'm also reluctant to start a PM with someone who may not respond so idk what to do there either). So, summary of Illwei's actions. Yeet. (Because this is how my brain works, each post will be condensed down to one sentence, so periods separate different posts technically). Bolded things are ones that caught my eye, but don't go by those I probably missed some things. Cycle 1: Spoiler Says Matrim's whole doctor thing is performative or jealousy, then asks Quinn if they are no longer assuming multiple doctors. Thinks Quinn is serious/not chaotic enough/votes her, says she'll just let people speculate and she'll speculate on their speculation, and waiting for Gears to do "his rules things." Switches vote from Kwinny to Quinn, "poke voting works!". Says she'll give tinfoil in C4 (...), can't reference ongoing games. Tells Quinn to give people more time to comment, discussion about past games/voting. "Illwei's DMs Exposed." Suggests C1 be RNG. 2-4 is way too many doctors, elims could have alignment scanner, 2-3 bookkeepers would be too many, doesn't see why elims would have an Aviar Holder because it would be easy to avoid the trapper kill, seconds Dannex's question about messengers creating PMs between other people that don't include them. Votes DeTess (not in game, created the ruleset [Thanks it's fun!]), doesn't think Brig would be an important sabotage (Young Bard is the one who listed that as one of the elims' greatest threats early on), says Aviar would be low priority sabotage "unless Straw for some reason made everyone Aviar holders" (this was the soft claim I asked Illweii about in our PM C2, but I missed her earlier comment about being an elim!Aviar holder which made it more obvious than I thought). Thinks Dannex's reasoning about Young Bard missing Archer's post is weird, but also thinks Dannex=village, wonders if we should be theorizing a team of five, says they themselves are acting out of character, is confused by Matrim/Quinn exchange, "why does it feel like only Illwei/Mat/Quinn are talking?" votes Reading. Tells TUO they're overestimating roles, no role madness. Aviar don't protect from the vote, doesn't think 5 elim team, thinks my poke on KingsWay might be an attempt to seem village, thinks TUO and Dannex have similar role numbers because they've both played role madness games. Discusses Dannex's possible vanilla games. Clarification. Offended that Matrim didn't mention them as a PM spider, solo doc pun. Weirded out by Matrim sussing TUO disagreeing with Dannex's reasoning, says opinions change. Says they've done that before. Votes Matrim (says elimmy mindset on the TUO/Dannex thing). Explanation. While later, removes vote on Matrim (says more laid back), vote back on Reading (says "Reading is in the game, right?"). Vote off Reading, doesn't like reasoning on TUO, says will leave till D2, votes Liranil. Vote off Liranil. Votes Matrim. Can the doctors use multiple colors to trick us? Cycle 2: Spoiler Asks why brig (idk you tell us Illwei...), says if trapper kill, they might as well claim because they only get one kill. Reads post: Thinks Matrim's "use it well" could mean he's the doctor (clearly not true now), says Dannex's tunnel in on Bard is strange, thinks Quinn/Matrim interaction is weird (I'm pretty sure this was an attempt to try and get us to sus those two?), Matrim's thing with TUO is sus, votes Matrim, doesn't think Matrim/Quinn are a pair, brings up how Archer's PM buddy could be the reason they were killed C1. If just one doc, only one messenger? if so, thinks they'd be v/e because communication role, but thinks hospital doc doesn't have that much power, doesn't like e/e pairs. Does a list to try to point out who were good C1 kills, says Ash, Gears, Archer, Illwei, and TJ would be good candidates for them if they were an elim, still suggests PM buddy though. we don't use meta lol jk. Says their suspicion of Matrim hasn't been meta. Past game discussion. Quinn's gotten better pbb. Starting to think PM buddy wasn't part of the reason for Archer's kill, question about hospital sabotage. PM buddy reasoning but then why not sabotage the hospital. Asks Liranil to explain different parts of reads post. Votes Liranil. Understands Liranil's use of gut in reads post, doesn't like emphasis on not voting for self pres, are Mat/Quinn's votes because of large activity, yes Matrim is defensive, doesn't like Matrim/Quinn's votes on her, votes Matrim. Illwei is tired and doesn't want chaos rn/will be inactive-ish. Says look at Dannex/Matrim if doc is thought to be elim, doesn't think Dannex can be cleared by Quinn's reasoning, mentions focusing on Kings because why did they post certain things, Liranil/Mat not e/e, opened PM to reply/gibberish, thinks Liranil is trying to justify vote on TUO too much, possibly keeps notes/reads as if village as elim, says Brighteyes' vote wasn't for no reason, explains GMs rng-ing/not, suggests Quinn/Liranil as e/v, TJ/Quinn not e/e, Mat/Quinn not e/e, votes Quinn. Says no to leaving things up to chance/tie. Lack of resistance to BrightEyes vote. Suggests Brighteyes is counter-wagon to Quinn. TJ sstarted vote, thinks odd that Quinn was self-pres voting early?, Brighteyes/Quinn e/e theory. Says Brighteyes implied she thought she would die. Wants Matrim to switch to Quinn/doesn't like Matrim's e/e reads. I had a PM with Illwei during round 2, but we didn't talk a whole lot. She mentioned that she was trying to find out who Archer PM'd, which we know now was nobody, and that she was confused by the interactions between Matrim/Quinn, but didn't think they were e/e. I brought up that I thought it was weird that Gears wasn't very active, but she mentioned he'd been active in the LG. Cycle 3: Spoiler Archer's doc stuff was entertaining (has anyone gone super in depth on that poem/song?), will be inactive-ish, who voted on each person, votes Quinn, Qs: who shaded Ash, Quinn/Liranil PM?, read Liranil as village, related her PM with TJ (no guarantee of accuracy...), read Liranil, Matrim, and Quinn as vil, votes Ash. Yes, vote stays on Ash. Everything points at us cuz we're the only ones talking, skipped Archer's song, weirded out by Quinn, gonna reread. Loves pinch hitting. Quinn/Illwei e/e would work flawlessly. Joke about Illwei/Quinn/Mat elim team. "If Quinn flips messenger i'mma have some problems here." Questioning Mat. Claiming elim is NAI, chaos doesn't always benefit the elims (misleading or secret elim truth?), doesn't think Quinn is elim (idk that spoiler section confused me). FUN. Claiming elim isn't the same as 3rd impostering. Claiming elim contradicts wincon only if your intent is a mislynch (but if it does trigger a mislynch unintentionally, that's still kinda against the wincon), Quinn sheeping?. Just don't lean into elim claim too much, another elim joke. 2 more jokes ab being elim. Quinn/Illwei e/e joke. Votes Quinn, will be less active (liiiiiiiiiies). Explanation for Quinn vote. Quinn doesn't usually do wallposts like these as elim, but not villagery points. Quinn used more quotes, wonders if elims are just silent/us miskilling. Says fine with grinching Quinn, Gears, Ash, Matrim, tags Random Bystander, Kings Way, Shard of Reading, doesn't want to kill inactives (the ones tagged presumably?). List of sus not in order, discussing villagers voting, Quinn's reads are wishy-washy, Ash popping up and saying "I'm not very helpful is an elim tell for them. Says Quinn needs more reasoning than "that's interesting," discussing Dannex's previous games, not vil reading Dannex, Quinn's reasoning is wishy-washy. Defending Dannex more, can't clear Ash based on activity, wants Quinn to be more solid on their voting. More defense. Doesn't think Connie is an elim here. Connie just said "claiming elim," not "I am an elim," trolling, Shard of Reading lurking. Hope Ash is okay. Didn't like Liranil's reasoning on people trusting Illwei too much, asks for Reading's thoughts on VC. Doesn't get why Liranil's reasoning isn't applied to anyone else (because no one else had so few people specifically asked to vote on them who specifically said they didn't want to switch, if that clears it up more), if it's not your top-elim read don't vote. Wants to switch onto Quinn or tie for self-pres, little resistance = more likely village (3 votes vs. 1 on everyone else). No one actually trying to switch the vote. Tags people to try and save her. Down to vote Gears, does think he's not acting himself, Liranil sus if Quinn flips e, votes Liranil. Tags people again (Connie, Random Bystander, Dannex, KingsWay, Shard of Reading, Young Bard), "Smh if I had a team they'd at least be bussing me if they thought I was gone, love how yall are content to jsut sit back and do absolutely nothing here" (Okay but seriously why didn't they try to switch the vote at all??). Annoyed because they said they couldn't do stuff this time/that's when people decided to kill her, and if she was elim, her team would try to intervene to keep her alive, just need two more misgrinches (no longer truuue), said that if we have a trapper they should probably kill tonight or tomorrow, otherwise elims win, tags Random Bystander/Dannex, "sus on them when I die because they were the two people who said they didn't think I was really all that sus and then proceeded to stay on their vanity wagons." Votes Random Bystander, giving up, tags Dannex/asks to make it a tie. That was a whole lot and my brain is muuuuush. I'll probably do an actual reads post tomorrow and analyze this stuff, but right now I need to use the sleeps. Pardon any typos it's 2 am grammar no longer exists. Someone else do some talking tonight please? @Flyingbooks: As a pinch hitter, what are your thoughts so far? @Gears @Kings_way @Shard of Reading: None of you have voted yet (or at least not had a vote that made it to the final count). What do you have to say? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Oh. Well I'd started a kind of ISO thing on Illwei last night but then I had to go to bed before I could finish it... oof. Yours is better/more concise anyway lol. 5 hours ago, Liranil said: wonders if we should be theorizing a team of five, 5 hours ago, Liranil said: doesn't think 5 elim team, Crazily enough, this is what first made me sus of her. It was so small that I didn't think it was worth pointing out in and of itself, but... well, she theorized a team of five and then state firmly that she didn't think there was one on the next page, without even referencing that she... had thought so before? Other than that, things I noticed from your very helpful summary: Illwei's interaction with Dannex was... weird? Like, first cycle she read him as vil, second cycle she started saying he was sus for his thing about Bard, third cycle she defends him again... yeah that's real odd. I have absolutely no idea whether that means they're e/e or whether Illwei was just busy and kept forgetting what her opinion on Dannex was? But then Illwei also said she takes notes as elim so that wouldn't be it, right? : P idk. I looked at the people that Illwei tagged in the first two posts--the three people that were in the first post but not the second were you, Mat, and Gears. I understand why she left you and Mat off--you were both voting for her and I assume she gave up hope that that would change--but why Gears? Maybe I'm reading too much into this and she forgot to tag him or something XD but it still seems odd. Since he hadn't voted and all. Right? Okay so there really aren't that many things I got out of that. Hopefully Liranil will have more thoughts I'll probably post on ISO on Mat (and maybe on you, Liranil?) later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Bard Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) OK, Illwei's flip should give us at least a little bit of information. Quinn and Liranil are both softcleared in my book, since Illwei pushed for both of their lynches pretty hard C3 and C2, respectively. That leaves in our suspect pool: Ash/Flying - I don't remember a ton of Ash's stuff from memory, and they've just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so... yeah, hopefully Flying will be more active so I can get a read on them. Neutral Gears - Hasn't voted at all, but has posted some post analysis each cycle - Ugh. I want to say that's an Elim strat, to avoid attention and scrutiny, but honestly, it's such an obviously deliberately done thing that I'm more inclined to believe it's some experiment being done by Gears this game, and so completely NAI. I'd put him as maybe Slight Elim, if only due to the lack of available alternatives. Connie - So chaotic that pretty much anything they do will be NAI, which may be the entire point. Still, I can't help but feel an Elim wouldn't attract that much attention to themselves, so... Slight Village Dannex - There was something about their vote on Connie last cycle that felt slightly... opportunistic to me. I don't really think that someone who was genuinely looking for Eliminators would seriously think Connie's claim was genuinely suspicious (Dannex pointed out there's no reason for a Villager to claim Elim, but I'd point out there's equally no reason for an Elim to claim Elim either, so that's not a convincing argument). It's entirely possible that Dannex isn't suspicious of Connie, but simply wanted to vote Connie out because of their chaotic playstyle, given this comment, but... frankly, I just came out of the AG where players trying to dictate how others should play SE was a huge frigging issue that became a mess, and the whole thing just makes me really tired, so... I'm going to do my best to give Dannex the benefit of the doubt and hope he's not doing that. Moderate Elim Kings_way - Kings_way is strange, because he's gotten suspicion for this post. And... I kind of agree that it's suspicious, but think it's suspicious for completely different reasons? The argument seems to be "If Kings were really inactive, then how did he know that Orlok was also inactive? Maybe they're just lurking and pretending..." Which... I don't find remotely convincing - First, Orlok had just been replaced by a pinchhitter, so I don't think it takes that much to really figure out why, and even someone with Kings activity level could plausibly know that Orlok had been inactive. Second, if the theory is that Kings is lurking, then surely they'd have stopped lurking to try and save Illwei. That didn't happen, which, if Kings were an Elim, I can only assume means he is genuinely inactive, not pulling off some pseudo-inactive strategy. At the same time, there is absolutely something really weird about that post. I mean... people were joking about Connie being the only Elim, but Kings seems to just miss the joke entirely and try to do some sincere analysis - essentially "Actually, I think it likely if Connie were an Elim, they wouldn't be the only one!" Which... I don't mean to be rude, but seems like something bluntly obvious for a bunch of different reasons. So I don't really know what to make of that post. I know Kings arrived sometime during my hiatus, and it may even be his first game, so that might go a part of the way to explaining it? If I wanted to see a Village!Kings making that post, I'd say you have a player who joins up, feels swamped, wants to contribute but doesn't feel they know how, so makes that post to just dip their toes in and try and act like everyone else seems to be acting. If I were viewing that post from an Elim!Kings perspective, it would be almost the same, except now with even more pressure of sounding normal and blending in while not knowing exactly how. Which means it's entirely plausible to be read both ways. Overall, I'd say I have maybe a very Slight Elim read on them, but I frankly talked myself in and out of seeing that one line both ways that I've gone cross-eyed and have actively ruined my ability to say anything with any confidence whatsoever, beyond hoping they'll post more in future so I can maybe have a bit more to work with next time I analyse them. Shard of Reading - similarly inactive, but I think I've gone overboard enough on the Freudian readings of individual lines for one day so I'll just say Slight Elim, and that might be why there was no counter bandwagon to try and save Illwei. Random Bystander - Illwei voted on Random Bystander towards the end of last cycle, which is... an IKYK. It could be a distancing tactic from a fellow Elim, but it could also be meant to be disguised as a distancing tactic? I do find it interesting that Random Bystander explicitly says they trust Illwei just a couple hours before rollover, but doesn't try to save Illwei, which... doesn't make sense from either an Elim or a Village perspective. Unless... at that point, Illwei had three votes on them, from Matrim, Quinn, and Liranil. All other candidates (I think) had one vote on them. So, if Illwei and Random Bystander were the only Elims online, they didn't have the ability to swing the vote on their own, except onto Connie or Kings, and even then with only a 50% chance of success. So if Bystander were an Elim, and hoping to save Illwei, they could be trying to drum up support for Illwei (specifically, at least one village vote onto a semi-plausible lynch candidate), but leave enough room for distancing if it didn't work? It seems kind of thin, but it's also the only story I can tell which feels like it kinda makes sense. So... Moderate Elim (I might have said Slight Elim, but I've marked three people as that already, and this feels just slightly more substansive than those other reads.) Looking back at the list, I guess that makes my top suspicion Dannex. Oh, and apparently my playstyle is sheepish? I... honestly don't intend it to be, and I certainly hope it isn't my 'normal' playstyle. I guess it's partly Matrim and I looked out for similar things and reached similar conclusions about most people, and partly just that reading through the threads I found Matrim's analysis to be reasonably persuasive, so shifted my suspicions to react to that. If I had more time, as well, I like to think I'd do more in-depth analysis that would give me more independent reads, and to highlight more differences between my reads and other peoples. Edited February 13, 2021 by Young Bard Bolded each player name and changed returns from single space to double space for ease of reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 [OOC: My apologies for my absence, I was at a robotics tournament yesterday [which I said in the other game but forgot to say here], but [un]fortunately, it was canceled due to "bad weather", so I can be here today instead of gone for 14 hours.] It seems that in my absence, they have managed to find a Saboteur. Grazie. I shall investigate what Illwei has said in. Spoiler The first day. Spoiler Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:11 PM, Matrim's Dice said: But Doctor would be a really fun role, so to whoever it is: You're lucky. Use it well. "use it well" sounds like such a strange thing to say?? so performative or whatnot. Or perhaps just jealousy? :P. On 2/6/2021 at 4:16 PM, Quintessential said: I was assuming from the phrasing of the rules that there would be more than one Doctor. It says at some point that if the Hospital is sabotaged, Doctors will still be able to talk to each other. Now you're not assuming that? In retrospect, Illwei is painting Philico's words with malicious intent. In addition, they seem to have leapt at Quinn. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:22 PM, Quintessential said: Sorry, should have been clearer--I realize now that I have been subconsciously assuming there would be more than one Doctor. Now that Matrim has brought that assumption to my attention, I'm suspending it pending further evidence. smh so serious "pending further evidence" where's the chaotic Kwinny I know and love? ;-; Kwinny EDIT: On 2/6/2021 at 4:22 PM, Archer said: I read the rules and loved them but that was days ago so I need to find some time to re read before I do any speculation. This, but like, I'll just let yalls do the speculation and I'll speculate on your speculation :P. *patiently waits for gears to do his rules things" Stabs at Quinn with banter. Awaits my arrival. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:29 PM, Quintessential said: what does that make me? Smh it makes you Quinn, smh. :P. On 2/6/2021 at 4:29 PM, Quintessential said: Right here! Quinn was being boring, so we should kick her out, right? And I, Kwinny, will take her place! Good good I'm in favor of this :P. Kwinny Quinn See here guys, Poke voting works! just like I always say! :D. Yet more banter. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:34 PM, Quintessential said: So, in preparation for this game I stocked up on some tasty tinfoil! Anyone want some? Get back to me in like, cycle 4 :P. On 2/6/2021 at 4:34 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Pretty sure that Quinn has only ever voted on herself as an elim :eyes: Welcome to the show where Illwei can't reference things because ongoing game hehehehehehehe It seems that Quinn will never be able to "get back to" Illwei with "tasty tinfoil". As an aside, this is either expert distancing or V/E interaction. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:50 PM, Quintessential said: Also shouldn't more people than just me, you, and Illwei have commented by now? It's been less than an hour, give them time, smh xD. On 2/6/2021 at 4:50 PM, Liranil said: I forgot this was starting today! It will certainly be a nice distraction from homework, although hopefully not as much as the last QF. :ph34r; heheheheheheheheheh On 2/6/2021 at 4:50 PM, Quintessential said: Actually I can't think of... any? other times when I've voted on myself XD I thought you voted on yourself in QF50- no wait no you didn't did you. I voted on you, and then you asked me to unvote :P. Yeah I don't remember any other time either?? :P. More banter and confusion. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 4:37 PM, Quintessential said: "Illwei and Quinn's Discord DM"? Illwei's DMs exposed! Yet more banter. Quote Guys Amazing Idea here that I forgot to mention before No one votes, we let D1 be complete RNG. :D. Terrible idea that I hope is a joke. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: the comfortable blanket of stress and paranoia settling over me. :P. On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: I guess that there are 2-4 doctors 2-4?????? I can think two maybe, but a whole quarter of us being doctors is just wayyyyy too much for what I'm thinking. I also hate doing setup spec. butttt aaaanyways- On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: I don’t think Elims would benefit from that very much See: all the times the Elims get given an alignment scanner :P. On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: I guess we have 2-3 bookkeepers. I am relatively sure one would be an Elim. This again feels like too much to me??? idk, 3 role scanners is a lot for a 16 person game Imo. On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: Aviar Holder, Doctor, Bookkeeper, Vanilla. Doctor and bookkeeper make sense to me, but I don't see the use of an Elim!Aviar Holder, but afdhlgkjd that doesn't mean they weren't given one. I mean, kinda use, but at the same time it would only be appliccable for trappers, and they only have one kill- so not that difficult to avoid, imo? Inb4 Illwei flips Elim!Aviar Holder On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: Can they create PMs between two other people I would also like to know this >:). On 2/6/2021 at 5:34 PM, Straw said: The messenger only has their one PM restriction removed. They can't create PMs between two other people. So the second one. awwww ;-; On 2/6/2021 at 5:29 PM, Dannex said: tos I, too, love the Terms of Service. Illwei doesn't seem to know about the Doctor, but that could just be a facade. Says no Saboteur Aviar Holder, which may imply the existence of one. Quote On 2/6/2021 at 8:29 PM, Young Bard said: I feel slightly guilty for people calling it my ruleset - it was Tess who came up with the ruleset, I just helped co-GM it when they ran it. On the upside, I guess that means you can unvote me now, though. smhmh DeTess On 2/6/2021 at 8:29 PM, Young Bard said: I'd say the Laboratory or the Brig, since it's their greatest risk in the early game Hm, I mean, I know it's not pure rng but it's a like 1/15 chance that they actually hit the person submitting the kill, no? so I don't think that's an incredibly important sabotage? I feel like that's more reasonable late game. It lasts 3 cycles, so it's not like it would just be sabotaged for the one cycle. On 2/6/2021 at 8:29 PM, Young Bard said: I think it would probably be lower priority again. I agree with the aviar- unless Straw for some reason made everyone Aviar holders, then I think it's not that big of a deal for the Elims to try and work around them? it's like the 1/15 thing I guess it's lower because i't'd be 1/12 or 2/12 but there's still- I don't think that would be a priority idk I started writing this like 10 hours ago and in switching tabs I found it again...if my sentences make no sense it's because they were finished at different times okay I take no responsibility :P. We know that the Saboteurs chose the Brig and the Aviar Holding Area, so this was just misleading. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 7:46 AM, TJ Shade said: pffftt you're only saying this because you know there's no chance you'll die in a tie :P. ;). On 2/7/2021 at 4:04 AM, Dannex said: Reasoning: there was literally only 1.4 pages in the thread at the time of his posting that. 35 messages. Seems unlikely they would miss Archer’s post when there was barely anything to go through. Okay okay okay. On one hand, this is incredibly strange reasoning :P. On the other hand, this feels like it comes from a villager. (oh look Based!Danex? again? how interesting :P) Maybe it's just the fact that I can't read, but I've definitely missed posts before. On 2/7/2021 at 7:46 AM, TJ Shade said: yo yo yo my dude, what's this piling up of numbers?? xD have we forgotten that straw is tooooo vanilla? (er, that's not an offense, straw :P) The less actions I have to remember to submit, the better >> Also straw seems to like larger Elim teams, should we be theorizing a team of five >> Also I was legit thinking something like "smh this is my backwards game" smh :P. me? Poke voting? Setup Spec? Actually trying to understand the rules? something's off here... xD. On 2/7/2021 at 10:24 AM, Matrim's Dice said: On 2/7/2021 at 10:22 AM, Quintessential said: On 2/7/2021 at 9:27 AM, Matrim's Dice said: Quinn it's an MR and you have two votes :P. I think. Suffice it to say I don't like this vote either. Okay and? Your vote's already on me why would I care what you think of me? Because my vote's on you, maybe? It... probably won't stay. I'd like more time to get a better read of you. I'm absolutely confused by this exchange??? ??? On 2/7/2021 at 0:02 PM, Straw said: Quintessential (2): Illwei, Matrim's Dice Young Bard (2): Dannex, Quintessential Orlok Tsubodai (1): Archer Random Bystander (1): Young Bard Smh Missing my vote on DeTess. I went through to see who hasn't talked in thread, and...3/4 of yall have??? why when I think of the thread then, do I only think of Mat and Quinn? What's the line between posting enough to encourage activity, and posting too much that people feel overwhelmed by the thread. *sigh*. @Shard of Reading Reading Thinks Danex is crew... Noted. Thinks 5 Saboteurs, which is fairly high. Is there a reason why they would want the Crew to overestimate the number of Saboteurs? Make them panicked and illogical? Quote On 2/7/2021 at 1:04 PM, The Unknown Order said: I'd say 3 no elims, which I find pretty unlikely, 4 one elim. Again I say...that's...a quarter of the people here?? you think that a quarter of the game are doctors? And another Quarter Messengers? I don't think this is Role Madness They do have a point. Coming from a position of knowledge? Maybe a group of mostly roleless Saboteurs Quote On 2/7/2021 at 1:04 PM, Liranil said: which doesn't seem too bad if the elims don't have a lot of Aviar or more powerful roles. Aviar don't protect from the...*ahem*...grinch, and Trappers hitting Elims is unlikely, with only one shot, so I don't think that Aviars matter here. I also don't think there's a 5 Elim team :P. On 2/7/2021 at 1:14 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Also: I am pinged off by Liranil’s post. Hrm. Currently trying to figure out why Could it possibly be this? : On 2/7/2021 at 1:04 PM, Liranil said: I'm not a huge fan of throwing out votes randomly... but I also don't feel the need to tiebreak as much since ties don't kill everyone this round. So... Kinda feels like an attempt to seem more village. On 2/7/2021 at 1:14 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I noticed an unusually large number of similarities between TUO and Dannex’s analysis and don’t know what to think about it... I chalk it up to two players who have played Role Madness games :P. Danex was in....MR 46 and LG71...I don't think he had a role in those? idk. Wait. Was Danex a mistborn in LG71? right? idk. so it's...that thing where like, you get a role every game, so you assume that others also have it? not confirmation bias....er...idk. On 2/7/2021 at 1:24 PM, The Unknown Order said: ...I don't really have a response, but I from what people are saying about Straw it feels unlikely. ...? thought you just said it was likely ? Straw isn't going to assign roles to specific people (>>) it's gonna be RNG'd, so- ? EDIT: ..is it confirmation bias??? Encourages suspicions on Third of the Dawn. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 1:34 PM, TJ Shade said: smh smh you be forgetting QF50 :P. I was trying to think of games that Danex has been vanilla :P. MR46 - idk LG71 - Mistborn maybe? er.... LG72 - Truthless QF50 - Brown Ajah Idk, I don't keep tabs on everybody :ph34r; Yeah i know I could check the stats sheet but see the thing is I just don't want to :P. Probably not especially relevant. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 1:39 PM, TJ Shade said: Aman was the solo Mistborn, iirc. Was danex then a mistborn in LG72...no that don't- this conversation is meaningless xD Okay basically my point was as two people who haven't rolled vanilla, that may be why they assume more roles than I think there are. EDIT: On 2/7/2021 at 1:34 PM, TJ Shade said: Yes but you added "unless they have a PM spider on their team" what do you mean? TUO/Illwei Elim team confirmed Third of the Moon was a Crewmember. As such, I think that Illwei was defending them for association. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 2:16 PM, Matrim's Dice said: If a PM spider flips elim look at more closely Quinn maybe Smh legitimately offended that I'm not the first person you think of here ;-; /s On 2/7/2021 at 2:16 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I've put off this question long enough what's confirmation bias *googles* > the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. On 2/7/2021 at 2:16 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Solo docs definitely exist. Haha a solo doc in a solo doc Banter Quote On 2/7/2021 at 2:23 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Like, if you think there's four doctors, and Dannex thinks there's four doctors, why say anything that discredits that? I don't like this statement? I mean, opinions change? if everyone came into the game with thier set opinions and never changed them, it wouldn't be that fun of a game :P. we're throwing Ideas out and then basically asking people to disprove them. Danex gave some reasoning that TUO didn't agree with, so he countered it. He's not trying to get people to believe him with Faulty evidence. I'm giving town points for that. Problem: I agree with this statement. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 2:29 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I just thought it was interesting that the counter also discredited what they said before. I mean, I just know that I've definitely done that before. Contradicted myself in arguing with someone else that is? because when someone else presents the same argument as you, I feel like it's easier to poke holes in it than it is to poke holes in a theory you've crafted yourself. EDIT: On 2/7/2021 at 2:23 PM, Matrim's Dice said: You'd already been mentioned I'd been mentioned by me >> Banter. Quote Okay, so I don't agree with TUO saying that mat looks tunnell-y, but this: On 2/7/2021 at 2:23 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I know it was in reply to that. I was just confused why you'd correct someone's reasoning that you agree with :P. Like, if you think there's four doctors, and Dannex thinks there's four doctors, why say anything that discredits that? This just feels like an incredibly Elimmy mindset I can't get it off my mind Matrim Again, throwing shade at Philico. While I agree with them, it demonstrates how they interact as a Saboteur. Quote On 2/7/2021 at 6:37 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I legitimately don’t understand how that’s an elim mindset. I saw what looked like a contradiction. And pointed it out. That’s it. What about it is elimmy? I remember the thing you said earlier, which made sense, but I don’t see how it’s elimmy to instinctively assume otherwise It's just like, your thoughts were "why contradict someone, even if you think their reasoning is wrong, if they have the same conclusion as you?" That just doesn't feel right to me at all, like- at all. Idk. While I concur, this is further demonstration. Quote I had something quoted here. I did. It's been hours now and I don't know what it was >> so uh Matrim You seem more laid back in a way? idk not a statement on your alignment, just a statement. I'm gonna come back to the thread tomorrow. Right now.... Back to Reading @Shard of Reading uh something else right. Reading is in the game, right? I'm not being an Idiot rn? :P. Retreating to a safe vote. Not overreaching on opinions. Quote On 2/8/2021 at 9:51 AM, Shard of Reading said: HI! I'm here! (This might be the latest I've ever seen someone keep a poke vote, but that's my fault ) So, while it's weird that TUO and Dannex have nearly identical analysis, I don't think that's necessarily making them e/e teammates. TUO could have read Dannex's posts and been influenced by that. (It's still weird though) I know that I also had thoughts about Young Bard's Archer Poke Vote, but my memory sucks. Give me 15 minutes to remember what happened.... Despite the fact that I literally read it 10 minutes ago. Reading Which is why it's like- Why is Matrim, someone who often has the same thoughts as me- weirded out that two players are having similar thoughts :P. I think that the reasoning on TUO is...??? but I'm not gonna- I'm not gonna try for another last minute switch >> that...worked so well last time >> I'm just gonna...Leave yall till D2 because apparently no one liked my idea of leaving it to complete RNG :P. I hate day 1s so I'm gonna do the ignore and come back later :P. EDIT: Liranil @Straw A reasonless vote on Third of the Dawn. Acknowledges and ignores Third of the Moon. Quote it's not even a tie anymore my efforts are meaningless ;-; Liranil Ah. Banter. Quote There's the part of me that wants to vote matrim and there's the part of me that feels bad about it but hey [/b]Matirm[/b] I don't recall a reason for this. Quote On 2/8/2021 at 3:49 PM, Quintessential said: Wait, won't we find out the number and identity of the Doctors once the first Hospital doc is published? can the doctors use multiple colors and try to convince people there's more than there are? :P. Banter. Conclusion: Illwei engaged in the simultaneous tactics of association and framing. No conclusions reached about living people. The second day. Spoiler Quote Why the brig? On 2/8/2021 at 4:26 PM, Random Bystander said: Technically, a village aligned trapper could have killed Archer. (I mean, it's not likely, but it's possible) They only have one kill, so if it was one of them then there's no reason for them not to come out and say it if it was them. Rereading through D1, things that Ping me (idk what ping means in this sense okay deal with it :P): - Matrim's "use it well". Yeah there's nothing here except for that it's just a weird thing to say?? idk. I'm not a fan of people telling the village/individuals how to use things. while this doesn't really fall into that category, it feels...performative? in a way? Like, I was thinking that either he's the doctor or..?? it just. idk. yeah. - Danex's fixation on Bard. idk man, just like. Danex grabs onto this "he didn't see Archer's post, that's sus" and then kinda holds it reaaaal tight. That just feels like a strange thing to latch onto, with all the other posts in thread. That only really makes sense though if anyone sussed before is E/E with Danex, and he didn't want to vote on them. - Illwei's vote on DeTess. C'mon Illwei. they're not even in the game. - Quinn/Matrim interaction bottom of P2. Yeah I don't even know what pings me about this. it just. feels off? ?? Quinn seemed like she was way too scared about being voted off in like the first few hours with two votes on her. and then this conversation where she was like "I don't care what you think of me, you're voting on me" ?? to which Mat replied "Don't worry, I'll be moving it later" ?? I don't- - Matrim's "why say anything that discredits that?". I just really don't understand why- Like if I had the same suspicion as Mat, but my reasoning was awful, I wouldn't just be like "means to an end", I'd go back and look at it like "whoa did I do something wrong here." yeah. Overall I really don't understand Matrim/TUO thing. I thought Mat was the one leading the TUO thing, but at the same time he was saying the whole time that he didn't think TUO was an Elim? He never Voted on TUO but he was the main person arguing with him in the thread, which- Yeah I just don't understand that. Matrim I don't think Mat/Quinn is E/E, but I don't remember wh- that interaction in thread. bottom page 2. That felt not E/E to me. On 2/7/2021 at 1:58 PM, Archer said: My PM buddy is claiming vanilla, and it would be a bad idea to lie about that with the bookkeeper role in the game. Assuming there were vanillas got us in trouble in QF50, but I feel okay thinking there are some in this one. If we're assuming there is an Elim doctor, dying people should do their best to make them slip and reveal their identities Also, this is like the only thing Archer has said that I could think would be why he was killed, unless he mentioned something in his PM, but that goes back here. I was wondering if his PM buddy didn't want Archer to end up telling anyone else who they were. idk. Either that or something about the Elim Doctor, but idk. Illwei's conclusions seem to imply that Quinn and Danex are Crewmembers. And Illwei knows perfectly well "Why the brig?". Also, the kill reasons for Third of the Eclipse are probably not genuine, especially since they bring up the Hospital later. Unless they're covering their tracks after failing to recall the Hospital? Quote I'm wondering - If there's only one doc, would that mean there's only one messenger? because if there's one of each then I'd assume that they'd be v/e because they're both communication roles kinda? At the same time as I'm writing this, I think about how the doc has no real power. the people can talk without the doc existing, and the docs get published, so it's not a very useful role to either side and I don't know what I intended to say here so let's just move on lmao On 2/8/2021 at 8:28 PM, Matrim's Dice said: For me, it's kinda both? Like, I do think both are evil (and if one flips vil I won't immediately trust the other) and if one does flip elim I'd find the other to be way more likely to be elim than before. And it might be early, but it does help build connections. I just don't get why people are making e/e pairs like it's so much easier to find people who aren't e/e and work from there Imo idk I had more things to say but I walked 'away from the computer and forgot them Wondering if the Saboteurs had the only Messenger? Trying to Spider? Interesting. Quote On 2/8/2021 at 11:58 PM, Dannex said: Speaking of Archer, we should try and analyze why he was killed. What is archer good at, meta-wise? From what I can remember, Archer's pretty good at getting village-read :P. I don't remember enough from his past games, otherwise. Idk: Quinn - Died Early LG Order - Up for the grinch :P. Liranil - Being sussed Orlok - Returning Dannex - Died Early LG BrightEyes - New? (2nd Game?) Matrim - Died Early LG Random Bystander - New? (2nd game?) Young Bard - returning Kings_way - Mostly Inactive Reading - Mostly Inactive? Ashbringer - Gears - Archer - Illwei - TJ Shade - Tis what I see. These are the five people that I- ...*looks at name in list* ...If I was an elim, but also not me? ...would want to kill, ignoring the fact that they might actually be Elims with not-me in this scenario :P. I guess we could think of why Archer instead of Ash, Gears, Illwei, or TJ here. Idk. I'm still thinking it might have something to do with the PM he had with the claimed Vanilla? maybe not neccessarily to do with the fact that they're vanilla, but them. Idk. "If I was a Saboteur, but also not me". Yes, Illwei, I see your regurgitation of pre-existing kill reasoning. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 8:18 AM, Matrim's Dice said: even I don't remember by elim meta. well it's a good thing we don't just rely on meta for suspicions no siree heheh. Banter. Quote Nothing about my suspicion on you has been meta? If so please point out where :P. because I don't see that :P. Just TJ's thing, and TJ isn't pushing you at all :P. Valid point. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 0:16 PM, Quintessential said: Of course, I've definitely been informed that I'm not acting like village me when I'm... actually village It's not that you haven't been acting like V!Quinn in those games, it's that you weren't acting like a villager in general. Banter. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 1:25 PM, Quintessential said: Which, hopefully, you've now all realized is not necessarily an indicator of elim!me Hopefully you've gotten better since your first two games though, Quinn xD. Banter. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 6:37 AM, TJ Shade said: I was thinking that Archer's PM buddy lied about being vanilla to him, then got killed him so the bookkeeper wouldn't scan them. But did they forget about the doc? Okay I'm starting to think this isn't it? @Straw If the hospital was sabotaged in C1, would C1 kills still go to the hospital or would it only start C2? EDIT: On 2/9/2021 at 1:35 PM, Quintessential said: Edit: @Straw Illwei LMAO you edited this two minutes before I posted? xD Knows "this isn't it". Quote On 2/9/2021 at 6:29 PM, Quintessential said: I... don't see why that matters? The Brig was sabotaged C1. Well i mean my current theory is that Archer was killed because of something related to his PM- but if he was, then why wouldn't the Elims sabotage the hospital to keep him from talking about it? Option 1. They are fools. Option 2. They didn't kill Third of the Eclipse for this reason. So either you're a liar or incompetent. Neither reflects well on you, darling. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 7:22 PM, Liranil said: Matrim, Quinn, and Illwei were the most active out of everyone by faaar. :ph34r\: Can you explain The difference between these two: On 2/9/2021 at 7:22 PM, Liranil said: Random Bystander (3): Laid very low, one RP post and a couple other posts with not much substance. Null-Mild Elim. On 2/9/2021 at 7:22 PM, Liranil said: Bright Eyes (3): Laid pretty low, mostly RPing and didn't say a lot about what was happening. They asked for a vote count at the end but didn't vote. Null. What brought you to Null on this: On 2/9/2021 at 7:22 PM, Liranil said: Illwei (24): Some good analysis/speculation. Thought (probably correctly) Dannex/TUO were overestimating roles. Didn’t like Matrim’s vote on TUO and thought they were elimmy. A lot of vote-switching. Null. And can you explain this a little more? On 2/9/2021 at 7:22 PM, Liranil said: Young Bard (4): Missed Archer's post and poke voted, but switched to Random Bystander when Quinn reminded them. Read Matrim as village and voted on TUO. Null-Mild Village. Actually some good points. May be genuine confusion. Quote Liranil However, I don't think this is distancing. Quote On 2/9/2021 at 10:48 PM, Liranil said: That post was combine of actual facts I found and gut/vibes I was getting from people. Okay, that makes more sense. :P. I was trying to put the reasonings with the reads and some of them didn't exist :P. On 2/9/2021 at 10:48 PM, Liranil said: Actually, when I voted on TUO, it was tied between us (I can link to that if you want me to), and, like I said, I didn't vote solely for self-preservation. Unlike Matrim, I'm not a huge fan of the explanation here. The fact that she emphasized "I didn't vote for selfpres" doesn't make that much sense to me, because it feels like she's trying to get the guilt or whatnot off of her for TUOs death. I don't understand how this "pings village" :P. I at least don't think that Matrim/Liranil isn't E/E here. On 2/9/2021 at 10:48 PM, Liranil said: Basically, you three (Quinn, Illwei, Matrim) have been the most active, and I'm pretty sure at least one of you is an elim... Is this the reasoning for @Matrim's Dice and @Quintessential's votes on me? Because we're all just generally active, no matter alignment. I do think that top posters usually have an Elim in there in some cases, but also that posting a lot is NAI for us :P. On 2/9/2021 at 11:00 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I'm always defensive, regardless of alignment... someone/multiple people can probably attest to that. I'm working on it not being out of hand. Will back this up :P. Matrim is always pretty defensive :P. I really don't like Matrim voting me here??? or Quinn, but like, they have no reasoning so I was just ignoring it??? but then Matrim joins??? I'm going to come back in a bit when I have actual thoughts because my brain isn't absorbing anything rn "I at least don't think that Philico/Third of the Dawn isn't E/E here." What? Third of the Dawn is being painted maliciously by Illwei. Implications... Slight Crew with the stipulation of potential distancing. Quote In attempting a re-read I have concluded that I am tired and not wanting to do things this game my chaos is worn out from the LG and my thinking is word out from a different game and I'm sitting here not absorbing anything I read so next person to vote I will sheep you I am also letting you all know that I will be basically inactive next cycle. I know there's over 12 hours til then. just on my mind thought I'd say. fun fun. Genuine. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 9:03 AM, Quintessential said: Idk, if we do eventually find out that the Doctor is elim, I might look more closely at Matrim, who I guess could easily have not realized that the Hospital doc gets published every cycle. If we go down this reasoning then might as well look at him more because Elim!Doc!Matrim might have been trying to get discussion going to distract from the fact that he was an Elim!Doctor. And then look at Danex for speculating what roles were on the Elim team to distract from the fact that he's on the Elim team with those roles :P. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: Right, I'd say I read Dannex as village just because his crazy overestimations of the number of roles suggest that he doesn't have TMI I...See above reasoning :P. I don't think that's a good enough reason to clear someone- because when you say "crazy overestimations" that implies to me that might imply that you're overestimating to hide something. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: Kings_Way doesn't usually post much, in my experience? I know I've been in games with them before but tbh I don't even remember which XD I think the point here is more like TJ's brighteyes thing? Kings was lurking obviously, and his posts were select responses, so the question is why those particular responses in this case. Brushing someone off because "they don't post much" is a reason we have such a great loss streak xD. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: or all three On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: You think they are e/e or they aren't? double negative = confusion. >> My brain works. Definitely. Opened a PM to reply to someone this cycle and It had a saved message of complete gibberish. NOT E/E. I don't think they're e/e. :P. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: Idk, I'd think elims would just say "I voted for selfpres" because then it's an understandable, NAI reason that people can't argue about with you. On 2/10/2021 at 0:36 PM, Liranil said: I said that I voted for self-pres, but that there was more to it, too. I don't deny that it was partially self-preservation. Just that I was also a little suspicious of them. Mmmmm I dissagree. imo Elims feel like they need to justify things more. Placing a vote in self-pres but then being like "oh, no. I was also suspicious of them, that's why I voted" makes less sense to me. Especially in Liranil's case when she didn't express that before hand, and voted in self-pres near the end of the cycle. Liranil, that's it though :P. the fact that you're saying it wasn't just self pres, as if you feel the need to justify it more. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: That too. The village part of that was (to me, at least?) the bit about taking notes. Because idk about you, but I definitely don't take notes on people as elim--I don't have to. I already know everyone's alignment so it's just a matter of figuring out who I want to be right about and who I want to be wrong about, and how to substantiate those things. I'm definitely different than that as an Elim :P. Yeah, you know everyone's alignment, but you still have to have some sort of trackable progression on your reads? So it's a lot easier to take notes and make reads on people as if I was village rather than come up with things on who I want to push :P. Maybe I play Elim wrong, who knows. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: Aaanndd there's a vote on someone for absolutely no reason : P not helping with my read of Brighteyes. Not for no reason? I didn't read the RP at first, but she's saying that she doesn't know why Ash is being minimally active, and throwing shade on that. On 2/10/2021 at 11:57 AM, Quintessential said: I was planning to just not self-pres and let this post speak for me once I flip village, Yo I had to talk to matrim about this already, I don't need to lecture you as well, do I? :P. On 2/10/2021 at 0:26 PM, Quintessential said: On the one hand, I have no actual read of Illwei, which maybe should concern me? But on the other hand she seems normal. And yes I know that I listed Matrim as null/mild and not null even though the reason for it is the same but that's just a gut thing I think. ;-;. It doesn't feel like I'm trying to solve? ;-;. On 2/10/2021 at 0:36 PM, Liranil said: I actually thought everything was RNG? I didn't know that GMs could change stuff. I mostly was thinking that one of the more active people was an elim because of the conflicting opinions everyone had. I mean, from what I know, GMs sometimes rng multiple distros and then choose one of them, or I think someone was talking in the Discord about RNGing and then allowing themselves one Edit? I really don't like speculating in-game about who you think the GMs would have assigned a specific role/alignment- it's RNG. :P. On 2/10/2021 at 0:36 PM, Liranil said: Quinn answered a lot of these too while I was writing this, so if it's repeating what she said... sorry! hm Thoughts: Liranil/Quinn probably not e/e, but- -Quinn/Liranil feels e/v with how Quinn is sticking up for Liranil so much. TJ/Quinn not e/e :P. Mat/Quinn not e/e. Quinn Implications: Quinn and Third of the Dawn are Crew. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 2:41 PM, Dannex said: I kinda think we should leave it up to the gods of luck and chance, because it seems like we're just going back and forth. Although that would probably benefit the elims, since there's less of them. I think this isn't the right thing to do, especially when you just said that you think the people up right now are village :P. I dislike ties a lot in most cases and leaving it up for chance leaves absolutely zero people satisfied with the outcome imo. Valid point. Quote I don't like how little resistance this BE grinch has We know that's not true. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:18 PM, Liranil said: I think we're way off of Bright Eyes and Quinn, because there hasn't been much resistance for either. Last minute vote switch: Activate! :P. :/. I disagree here though, because Quinn only got to three votes iirc before Brighteyes picked up. It feels more to me like Brighteyes is Counter-Wagon to get off of Quinn. Third of the Dawn makes an excellent point. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:31 PM, Quintessential said: I mean, that is partially correct. Given that I'm the one who actually started it. TJ started it, then left it alone. So...you started Brighteyes not because you thought they were suspicious, but becauase you didn't want to die? Trying to self pres earlier into the round is what puts us in these thunderdomes that don't lead anywhere. and if Brighteyes is an Elim, why isn't she voting on you? Add onto my list of thoughts: Brighteyes/Quinn e/e if Brighteyes flips e Vague confusion at the reasoning here. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:40 PM, Quintessential said: Has she even been on since the train on her picked up? If not, then there's your answer. If so then I have no idea. And no, the vote on Brighteyes wasn't just a selfpres; like I said, I wasn't planning on voting on anyone until I went through and read the last couple of pages of the cycle more carefully. She has though, no? *checks* She was on for a bit, but she implied in her most recent post that she thought she was going to die. They continue to paint Quinn in a bad light. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:46 PM, Matrim's Dice said: @ me if you want anything I should be on until rollover. @Matrim's Dice I want you to switch to Quinn :P. Also I want you to not keep assigning these e/e reads that really don't make all that much sense if you really think about them :P. They do have a point about the Saboteur link chains. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:51 PM, Matrim's Dice said: You don't need to quote and @ me You said to @ you smh smh :P. On 2/10/2021 at 3:51 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I don't really think about them, that's kinda the point :P. Wonderful wonderful, keep those coming :P. Banter. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 3:58 PM, Quintessential said: Edit: great now it's a tie. Why does this always happen. :| Banter. Conclusion: Crew Third of the Dawn and Quinn. The third day. Spoiler Quote Coolio that ended well :P. Archer, that was very entertaining to read :P. I'll be here for the first half of the cycle, but I'll be mostly inactive on the 12th. So...Ping me if you actually have something you want from me, but otherwise I'll probably be gone/lurking. Hide contents The Unknown Order (4): Liranil, Quintessential, TJ Shade, Young Bard Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, The Unknown Order Matrim's Dice (1): Illwei Orlok Tsubodai (1): Archer Young Bard (1): Dannex BrightEyes2 (4): Ashbringer, Liranil, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential Quintessential (4): BrightEyes2, Illwei, TJ Shade, Young Bard you know why I like QFs? so many more deaths. :P. Quinn I'm going to go through the thread...in a bit. I gotta go run some errands so after that, but for now, trying to think: - Who Shaded Ash? I can't remember. I'll find it when I go through - Vote completely left Liranil yesterday, and Quinn was basically Hard vouching. Quinn, did you have a PM with her last round that gave you something? - Basically ignore that point above, please, as I am now reading Liranil village so that's cool. - I had other thoughts that were actually related to the VC but they completely left me in the past 30 seconds so TJ's thoughts from our PM Hide contents - E!Messenger!Quinn? - Quinn/Liranil e/e - Claimed Aviar Holder to me smh I thought we were friends, TJ ;-;. - wait number 2 must have changed somewhere because Liranil village Hide contents Last cycle Liranil PMd me telling me she noticed me softing a role (among other things). Point there being there's no reason for her to confront me about the soft if she's an Elim, when she could just kill me. TJ says I made the soft too soft ;-;. he couldn't find it. but. Yeah. - Told me he PMd Liranil C2 - Ooooooh it was Bard/Liranil? not Quinn/Liranil? But then he changed to Liranil village so that's different. Top village reads rn: - Liranil - ... - Matrim completely off gut - ...Quinn is also here :/ Someone help me I can't do reads when I have reasons everyone could be village this doesn't work. Ash If Quinn is not Crew, I would be quite surprised. Illwei has been pushing for their death for a while. Ah, Illwei had a PM with Sixteenth of the Night... Where there was a claim... Quote On 2/10/2021 at 5:01 PM, Straw said: Which of your votes do you want to be counted? the last one i can ... do you want me to edit in a green? Banter. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 5:05 PM, Quintessential said: Illwei, TJ Shade (confirmed vil), myself, and Matrim. The fact that everything leads back to us I think is the fact that we are the only people actually talking! How exciting! Hehehehehehheheeh :))))))))) On 2/10/2021 at 5:05 PM, Quintessential said: Huh, that's... not a bad point. I also find their first post this cycle oddly performative: ^^^^ On 2/10/2021 at 5:05 PM, Quintessential said: I'm a little confused by Archer's song (though I do like it--once this game is over you should post it in SEAcropolis lol) but I think he's saying he trusts Dannex here and doesn't want Dannex exed? idk Oh wait that was an actual read? I definitely skipped...over...the song.... ... ... :D. On 2/10/2021 at 5:05 PM, Quintessential said: Sus on TJ for suggesting this, looks like an elim fishing for a misexe. Quinn wanna vote TJ with me? :P. On 2/10/2021 at 5:05 PM, Quintessential said: Aww that's so sweet of you :3 I feel so special being listed after Matrim and a set of ellipses as vil reads XD <3 <3 <3 anytime :3 Honestly I'm going to try going through the thread again just like- idk. I don't like quinn but I'm also worried that I'm tunnelling. her responses feel different than in QF50, and my main problem with her goes to the wierd defence of Liranil But I'm going to go back and try to find village reads because mine are messed up so expect for me to have whoever you thought I had as top town as Strong Elim :P. Banter, shading First of the Stars Quote On 2/10/2021 at 5:49 PM, Condensation said: Hello, everyone! I'm totally looking forward to pocketing Mat! Oh wait - I'm not supposed to say that, it'll look sus. Well, too bad for y'all! I'm changing my playstyle again! And this time I'm claiming elim!!! Ha - have a good time Hide contents Okay mobile litterLly won't let me get rid of this quote so I was just wanting to say that I love pinch hitting because you're looking at the thread with a completely fresh...something. idk when I'm following along but not in a game it's easier for me to see things :P. Banter Quote On 2/10/2021 at 7:32 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Debates how Quinn/Illwei e/e would work flawlessly Banter Quote On 2/10/2021 at 8:00 PM, Quintessential said: Imagine how fun a me/you/Mat team would be XD "imagine" smh quinn have you not checked your GMPM yet? smh. Banter Quote On 2/10/2021 at 7:27 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Oh yeah, elim messenger Quinn seems likely enough to go for it (but here we are again sheeping an elim read to vote another elim read -_-) ?? you were Elim reading TJ? who. Fliped Vil? xD This was his idea, not mine- as I Argued that I would NOT accept a world in which Quinn had got Messenger and proceeded to NOT message me >:( If quinn flips messenger I'mma have some problems here :P. Vague confusion. Philico's reasoning here seems a bit odd. Illwei's confusion seems justified. Quote On 2/10/2021 at 9:18 PM, Illwei said: (but here we are again sheeping an elim read to vote another elim read -_-) ??? @Matrim's Dice Confusion Quote On 2/10/2021 at 9:40 PM, Ashbringer said: Wait, wha... why does it say Illwei said what Mat said. Because I was lazy and didn't quote mat's post, I quoted mine :P. Banter Quote On 2/10/2021 at 9:43 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Last cycle I followed Quinn’s vote onto BrightEyes when I read her as slight elim. Today I’m voting Quinn when I read you as slight elim. Sounds legit EDIT: On 2/10/2021 at 10:19 PM, Condensation said: Keep in mind that even if I'm an elim - which is definitely true - that there are likely others. mmm. I don't buy it :P. Banter Quote On 2/11/2021 at 9:46 AM, Matrim's Dice said: I can't decide if Quinn bringing this up so fast is a reason to elim read her On 2/11/2021 at 9:46 AM, Matrim's Dice said: but I agree this seems performative. Sounds legit. On 2/11/2021 at 10:07 AM, Dannex said: All it does is add confusion and benefit the Elims I will disagree....somewhat. with this. I personally think that since claiming Elim is NAI there's zero reason to...pay attention to it? at all. I would also say that...I think there's a level of chaos that also doesn't benefit the Elims? I think it's easy for them to hide in chaos, if they're wanting to be chaotic, but I also think that sometimes- I can't explain this well so like never mind :P. Still disagree somewhat :P. TJ's Posts: Hide contents Quote On 2/9/2021 at 10:05 PM, Matrim's Dice said: All in all, I know I’m not the only one to share these suspicions as evidenced by comments from both last cycle and today. I’m confused as to why my vote was singular today and C1 and propose this exe as much more grounded than any other we have at the moment. Your vote was singular because while I suspect Liranil, I suspect you as well so I'm confused to whom I should go for. This post did make me feel a little better about you. On 2/9/2021 at 10:05 PM, Matrim's Dice said: TJ’s vote comes from BrightEyes’ under the radar ness while in their village game they weren’t like that. Just one of the reason. The other is that they were content RPing, so their sudden concern and the ping for VC feels off to me. Especially when they didn't follow it up with a vote. On 2/9/2021 at 10:05 PM, Matrim's Dice said: BrightEyes would be my second choice of the current candidates (a fairly easy decision :P) and if I have to self pres it will go there. On 2/9/2021 at 11:00 PM, Matrim's Dice said: ........Illwei???? ???? Edit: We need more people discussing this than just the ones up for the grinch -.- Quote Y'all seeee you guys are just recycling votes among yourselves -_-' Makes me think all of you are village because no one else seem to be caring?? Quote Okaaay from this little circle on interactions I conclude: Matrim cares who dies between Liranil and Illwei - Likely village Illwei cares who dies between Matrim and Liranil - Likely village Liranil - Not as likely as village as the above two, but responded calmly to the differences when mentioned by Illwei. Didn't feel like she's been "caught" or anything like that. Feel like it was continuation of her thoughts, not something fabricated to escape whatever Illwei sprung up on her. And little things here and there mentioned which feels too perceptive to appear from an elim. I wouldn't want any of the three grinched in this cycle. No one wants to vote for BrightEyes. Quintessential. Oh, you thought you were getting commentary on this from me? hah. ... Oh okay fine He outwardly suspects Liranil (...well, a teeny tiny bit??), and votes on Quinn. I feel like E!Quinn Killing him for his reads would be a strangely obvious thing to do, so I don't think that- unless there's a Quinn/Liranil team? then maybe? but if he was village reading Liranil that makes no sense to me so idk yall figure out your thoughts. As an aside: Danex's vehement disapproval of claiming to be evil seems a bit.. overdone? I myself have done it several times, and they've never called me out on it. Illwei says very little of substance. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 10:36 AM, Dannex said: My point was that there's just no reason for a villager to do it. Have you considered Hide contents FUN There are plenty of reasons for a Crewmember to do so. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 10:39 AM, Dannex said: Claiming elim is 100% directly contrasting with the village wincon, so I do not think fun outweighs it in this case. :| I basically agree with Illwei on this point. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 10:39 AM, Dannex said: Claiming elim is 100% directly contrasting with the village wincon, so I do not think fun outweighs it in this case. So there's a complete different imo between claiming elim (which multiple people have done in this game, see: Me, Quinn, (Mat?, (did Gears claim Elim this game?)) And going out of your way to find an Elim in PMs and actively 3rd Imposter (we can use amongus terms in this game, right? :P). If your argument here is that Claiming Elim is a harmful playstyle then I have to strongly disagree. EDIT: Point unclear just like mine always are Claiming Elim only directly contradicts the village wincon if your intent/the outcome is to be a mis-grinch so that the Elims are that much closer. Which I have never seen been the intent. :P. At worst it's a meaningless joke - At best it's some sort of masterful reaction test that will single-handedly catch all the Elims. (though,,,I haven't seen that one yet. would be nice :P) EDIT: Also catch Quinn sheeping me i guess for real not a fan of Quinn's approach to Liranil and I guess kinda me EDIT: Also Yeah Matrim and I have really not been on the same page this game so what's up with that :thinking: Banter, good points, etc. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 10:56 AM, Condensation said: I've literally been laughing and laughing ever since I decided to claim elim. It's just... so much fun. You just gotta be sure not to lean to much into it because then they actually might kill you and- Well I left some comments in the doc if you'd go read those... :P. The problem with Condensation claiming Saboteur is that Condensation never lies. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 10:58 AM, Illwei said: Well I left some comments in the doc if you'd go read those @Condensation :P. Banter Quote On 2/11/2021 at 11:01 AM, Quintessential said: Um what doc??? smh :P. My joke -------------------------------------> People's heads ;-; Banter Quote Quinn's reaction to my joke would legit make me think Illwei/Quinn might be e/e but I'm one of those So yeah Banter Quote Quinn I will be minimally active starting now, Honestly will probably still be here until tomorrow lmao. Will be back mid-next cycle in full. Continuing suspicions they've been pushing for a while. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 0:15 PM, Quintessential said: No, no, Illwei you're supposed to bus Connie, not me! haha :P. I don't like how Quinn changed her attitude? ...not right word. D1 after I pointed it out. felt like what happened in QF50 with breaker. Her handling of the whole Liranil thing on D1 was weird to me, as she threw out this "Liranil/TUO e/e" thing and then dissappeared, only to reappear later and switch to TUO. I don't like e/e parirings so early if you're willing to be so careless about which one dies. because usually it doesn't just go both ways and there's one who's more likely. She then does a 180 over night (...there are no nights, so uh idk) and then starts defending Liranil once Liranil actually gets pressured. I think her wallposts are points in her favor...in part? I don't remember her doing posts like that as Village, but also the points that she made in those posts weren't incredibly villager-y to me. Her reads list also has only one other Elim on it, and she isn't even voting on them, not even when I already voted on them first :P. And all of her reads, though assigned an actual read, are incredibly wishy-washy and they all seem to be "buuuuut I can change it real soon if you want me to". Sigh. Malicious framing. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 1:47 PM, Quintessential said: I've definitely done wallposts as vil... but I do them as elim too, so they're kinda NAI for me at this point. >> I meant to say Elim there >> I don't remember you doing wallposts like that as Elim, but your points aren't incredibly villager-y. Sorry, my mind isn't completely here :P. Chatter Quote On 2/11/2021 at 2:02 PM, Quintessential said: QF50. I had a lot of wallposts in QF50. : P They felt different though, they were more talking less quotes Legit wondering if all the Elims are just silent rn and we're handling their ML for them >> Of course, the Saboteurs are quite chatty. Quote People I'd be good with grinching: Quinn Gears Ash Matrim (eh) @Random Bystander @Kings_way @Shard of Reading Would Rather not kill any inactives (eh), but opinion might change on that depending on posts this cycle. I'll try to be semi-here, but this is me saying farewell-ish and please don't try and kill me until C4 Putting Saboteurs on a list like that is somewhat advantageous, but since Philico is dead, it's hard to tell. Also, First of the Bone was replaced, so... Quote Illwei: Please don't try to kill me until next cycle pwease Quinn: >:) On 2/11/2021 at 7:12 PM, Quintessential said: but then Illwei lists him third on her list of people-I'd-be-down-to-exe-today? Before Matrim, whom she's been sussing this entire game? I'm kind of confused by that, and I find it hard not to see as distancing. It's not in order :P. And you might as well then say that I'm e/e with Gears, yet you strangely don't mention him at all? On 2/11/2021 at 7:12 PM, Quintessential said: What's more interesting to me is that Illwei and Bard are the only two not-confirmed-villagers on me. Can you explain...why this is interesting to you? Can I say I find it interesting that Ash, Liranil, and Matrim are the only not-confirmed villagers on Brighteyes? yeah but it don't mean nothing more than "they suspected Brighteyes over Quinn". And I didn't think that Brighteyes was an Elim, because all of her posts which you said had nothing in them, actually did have things in them, and they'd apparently been contributing more than RBy...eeeeven if we hadn't realized it at the time of her posts :P. On 2/11/2021 at 7:12 PM, Quintessential said: except to call me out for my read on him being wishy washy? All of your reads were wishy-washy. Ash was your only living Elim read, and you just...go and ignore him this round. That's what I didn't like about that. Because Ash in his Elim games has always been popping up from time to time, and saying something like "man, I'm not very helpful am I?" and that's what he's done in this game so far. And you have him down as a wishy-washy Elim read? and then don't pressure that at all, just let it sit there not meaning anything. They do actually have moderately good points. Good on you, Illwei. Continues to maliciously frame Quinn. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 7:54 PM, Quintessential said: Okay I'm... very very confused by this. You just asked me why I didn't consider the [Ash, Liranil, Matrim] thing more carefully and then immediately gave me reasons why it wouldn't be very useful? I agree, on its own it's not useful, which is why I didn't look at it on its own. ?? but you mentioned it on it's own? what??? "What's more interesting to me is that Illwei and Bard are the only two not-confirmed-villagers on me. And Bard was on TUO as well. Bard has basically just been sheeping the main trains without actually... providing many thoughts? idk, I've literally never played with Bard before so maybe that's normal for them, but it... seems... really odd to me. Also more sus of Illwei based on the votes... but I'm not sure... hmmm" You don't address why you think it's interesting? you just say it is, because it is. that's...not an answer??? On 2/11/2021 at 7:54 PM, Quintessential said: I didn't say Brighteyes' posts had nothing in them? That wasn't why I was sus of her. I thought a couple of timing things were odd--her asking for a VC out of nowhere and then not saying anything about it or voting, her choosing to vote someone who hadn't been talking a lot immediately after a bunch of us started saying that "hey, maybe none of us are elim!" and so on. Really thought it was just TJ saying "hey! maybe none of you are Elims!" but that's also kinda irrelevant to this :P. On 2/11/2021 at 7:54 PM, Quintessential said: A. I've already explained this, which by the way you didn't respond to at all : P and B. obviously I'm not ignoring him this round. Not anymore, at least. Given that he's said so little I wasn't going to start the round off with a vote on him--I intended to go back and look at him more closely first, which I've now done. Where did you address this? And also then what? I get that most of my votes are for pressure, and that not everyone plays like me, but... ? I guess I can call that a playstyle difference there, but I like starting cycles off with a vote :P. On 2/11/2021 at 7:54 PM, Quintessential said: The problem with me just solid elim-reading him from that is that he does that in vil games too. He got exed for it in QF50, in case you've forgotten that. Hence the null elim read originally. Also, if you've found it so sus that he's been popping in and out without saying much, then how come you haven't mentioned it before now? Iirc your post 2 hours ago was the first time you ever even mentioned your suspicion of him, and before that I had the impression that you were vil-reading him, and sussing me in part because I had him down as null elim for what you considered flimsy reasoning? Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but that's what it seemed like to me. He didn't get killed for that in QF50??? not at all??? 1) the train on him was started by striker, An Elim 2) at least my vote had nothing to do with that? it's that there was v/e between you two because something felt fake, and i misinterpreted that as him. Nothing to do with inactivity/not helping, because he did analysis in that game. Since when was I vil reading him? I will admit I'd been talking to TJ about game thoughts more than I had in thread because it's easier, so maybe I said somethigng wacky in thread and didn't realize it- but... ?? Suspicions have to start somewhere, so the fact that you're just like "where did this suspicion come from, huh?" is like ??? to me because >..I read the thread, and then was like, Ash kinda suspicious here. And that's where suspicions come from :P. Yeah I sussed you for having him in your Elim reads, but that was legit like a few hours ago, no? and it was wishy washy reasoning. and. all. your. reads. I'm not the one fixating on the Ash read, you are. all of your reads were flimsy, Ash was just your only Elim read. With that replies will be few and far between, it being 9pm est now. Honestly maybe killing me will make my life easier but at the same time I'm not gonna gamethrow like that lmao Illwei is good at pathos. However, Quinn does a good job at pointing out the contradictions. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, Quintessential said: 1) yes and there were four other people voting on him, three of them vil. Besides, I guess my point is that he did act that way in QF50, even if it wasn't why he was exed. My point is that he didn't act that way- he did things. I will go back- no I won't :P. I implore you to go back and look. he didn't :P. On 2/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, Quintessential said: 2) This isn't actually relevant to anything so idk why I'm responding to it but the cycle ended in a v/v tie? you/ash e/v because how much you were tying yourself to him that game. Not v/e votes. On 2/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, Quintessential said: : P k so I'm gonna assume you talked about it with TJ but I definitely never saw anything about Ash. Ever. And yeah, my point is that suspicions have to come from somewhere, and yours on Ash doesn't seem to have from what we mere mortals can see in the thread. Actually, I'm curious about your suspicion on Gears too? He's done two analysis of the same thing, and not really anything else. You could make the argument that he would be more active as an Elim but there's nothing to back that up with, and lurking benefits the elims more as long as they're not called out for lurking. On 2/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, Quintessential said: ...also isn't it kind of a contradiction to inform me that all my reads are flimsy and then tell me I should have voted on my (wishy washy) elim read at the start of the cycle, all in the same breath? :headdesk: No, no it's not, because I'd like to see something. If you have hedgy reads but are willing to put your vote behind them, that's one thing. You had a mild elim read on Ash- a pretty solid Elim read, and yet you didn't vote on him. hedgy + not voting on top suspicion is like... why? you voted on Kings, who you had as null. I can see a world in which there's an Ash/Quinn/Kings team, you voting on Kings for distancing because you're worried of something. Idk. I'm not fully here. hope that answered your question. Same as above. Quote On 2/11/2021 at 8:36 PM, Quintessential said: ...okay please make up your mind, was my read on him wishy washy or was it pretty solid? I will say that I don't think it was (or even still is) at all solid. I don't know where you got that impression. I listed him as null elim, not even mild. by solid i mean i see red color it was red therefore solid also definitely thought that you had him down as mild glas i didn't say that that woulda been wonderfully embarrassing :P. On 2/11/2021 at 8:36 PM, Quintessential said: *cough* QF49 *cough* ??? Also I'm not going to trust your self-meta here. On 2/11/2021 at 8:36 PM, Quintessential said: I had Kings as null because when I composted that reads list, they had done exactly nothing to distinguish themself. I've never played a game where Kings has been active, so that didn't feel off to me. I'm voting on them now because as of this cycle, they've demonstrated that they've been paying more attention than their participation would otherwise suggest. This feels like the last game, where people were voting on me because they thought other people were scummy, and then teammates with me :)))). This is the point where Illwei begins to get desperate. Quote 21 hours ago, Dannex said: I am in favor of condensing, but I’m not really sus of Illwei. Hah. I understand if you feel like you want to keep a sort of protest vote on Connie, but I don't think she's an Elim here. Banter Quote 21 hours ago, Condensation said: Maybe I should claim elim more often, if it convinces everyone I'm village. You've never said that you're an elim explicitly, you've just said "I'm claiming Elim". Honestly I think you're in Troll mode so I'm just mostly ignoring you rn :P. 21 hours ago, Quintessential said: I mean, I suppose that's fair. Normally I'd argue that the elims could vote-manip to change the result but there's no vote-manip in this game so that's not a concern : P So why even bring up the point then? @Shard of Reading I see you lurking there :P. Chatter Quote 21 hours ago, Ashbringer said: I’m... yeah. I’m gonna have to drop out of this one. My eye does not like looking at anything like a screen right now and I’d prefer to just give myself a break than try to get out a post a day here. Plus it’s only C3 so I don’t think it will break too much. I’ll stay through the LG for now but who knows. So... @Straw, can I get a pinch hitter to take my spot? :/ Hope you're okay? Chatter Quote 19 hours ago, Liranil said: Illwei: I've decided I just can't read Illwei. My gut is very suspicious though and I just don't know why. But I don't trust my gut. But also a lot of people trust Illwei, which makes me suspicious. Mild Imposter. Not really a huge fan of that reasoning, there, good sir :P. EDIT: 19 hours ago, Shard of Reading said: I'm here to talk because I don't want to be replaced. I've been starting a post by post analysis to try it. (I've always wanted to do this and the thread is fairly short. This will probably just be cycle one. I don't really have the time to do everything.) Any quick thoughts on the VC right now? :P. In all fairness, that reasoning is strange. Quote 19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: I agree, which makes me... confused. I just don't like how she applies that reasoning to me and not to litterally anyone else. Like, *sigh* If I'm not your top Elim-Read don't vote on me, or at least vote on someone earlier on? she gives me a bad gut read-says she doesn't trust that, and then goes and votes on me because I'm being village read? I'm going to try and look through my PM with TJ and see if I can find his reasoning for Liranil-Quinn to leave with yall because I can see that. I predict a frustrated Saboteur annoyed at being caught for silly reasons. Quote 19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: ...Last minute switch, anyone? xD I'd rather a switch onto Quinn :P. There's legit no way for me to self pres unless reading wants to be nice or someone decided to tie it :P. And I stand by the fact that little resistance= more likely village as I sit here with 3 votes and litterally one vote on everyone else Trying to survive. Quote 18 hours ago, Liranil said: You say little resistance but there are a lot of people who didn't want to switch to you when Quinn asked. That seemed like resistance to me. There was no one actively trying to switch the vote, sure people didn't want to vote but if I was an Elim my team would be voting in at least a way that could save me, via me self-pres voting or what. and all the votes have been on practically vanity wagons. no one actually getting involved besides Quinn, Mat, and Me implies that at least I'm village and the Elim team doesn't care about my case on Quinn, or that all three of us are village. Maybe even that you're village too idk I- I have some reading to do next cycle if I survive >> Desperation, struggling. Quote 18 hours ago, Quintessential said: Illwei's comment about having no resistance is... like, really odd... Oh no the comment Illwei makes every time that there's a situation like this is odd when she's making it about herself oh no :|. EDIT: 18 hours ago, Quintessential said: Little resistance? Yeah that just changed. : P problem is, that change seems to be stemming from Mat (who I can't imagine being elims with you) and myself (whom I know to be vil). Ughhhh something here doesn't make sense and I have too much hw rn to sit down and figure out what. uh hold on and especially when you just made this statement??? @Gears @Liranil @Condensation @Dannex @Matrim's Dice @Kings_way @Shard of Reading @Random Bystander @Illwei @Young Bard Tagging people to see if anyone wants to save me ;-; This entire pathos-based defense seemed a bit... overdone. Quote 18 hours ago, Random Bystander said: Uh... I don't know who else I could vote for at this point. I do know that I don't think you are an elim. (I could be wrong though, so...) I'm down to vote Gears - Who hasn't been acting like himself. Ash is getting a replacement. Kings way has been lurking but you're sitting there already. Liranil seems way more suspicious to me if Quinn flips E but I'm not sure what else I think. Currently not quite here smh Quinn makes me join a game and then proceeds to try and kill me smh >> :P. EDIT: *sigh* @Matrim's Dice 19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Yeah. Like honestly at this point I'm probably just gonna vote Liranil C4 regardless of how you flip :P. >> Liranil @Straw How have I not been "acting like myself"? Also, Third of the Dawn seems to be fairly Crew now. Quote I don't like this :/ mmmm @Condensation @Random Bystander @Dannex @Kings_way @Shard of Reading @Young Bard ;-; EDIT: Smh if I had a team they'd at least be bussing me if they thought I was gone. love how yall are content to just sit back and do absolutely nothing here Genuinely frustrated Illwei... Quote 17 hours ago, Quintessential said: idk, typically she's basically just kinda resigned, and throws a bunch of random votes out there I don't know my meta but this feels like exactly what I'm doing rn lmao. If I'm more annoyed it's because I told everyone that I legit don't have time for anything serious this cycle and this is the cycle you decided to try and get me killed. 17 hours ago, Liranil said: Ugh but this kinda makes sense. But also if the elims/your hypothetical team haven't done much this whole time, then why would they start now? Why wouldn't they?? we just voted out two villagers, if they didn't get involved it's because they saw no need to- the village was tearing itself apart plenty fine. Why would they start now? because if I was an Elim they'd need to intervene to keep me alive? The Elims only need two more misgrinches to win if none of them die. If we have a trapper then they should probably kill tonight, maybe tomorrow, because otherwise Elims for sure win. Tomorrow would be best I guess because if you don't grinch an Elim then you've got nothing to lose from shooting. @Random Bystander @Dannex <--- sus on them when I die because they were the two people who said they didn't think I was really all that sus and then proceeded to stay on their vanity wagons EDIT: Catch RBy checking the thread when I sent that and then proceeding to do nothing pog Playing on fear of loss. Quote Random Bystander i'm giving up. @Dannex i see you viewing the thread. Want to make it a tie to be nice to me? Genuine Conclusion: Desperate Saboteur trying to not die when the teammates have taken it as a loss. Quinn and Third of the Dawn seem fairly cleared at this stage. Seemed willing to kill First of the Stars. The Illwei vote did indeed have little resistance. Are the rest of the Saboteurs inactive/asleep at that time? Seems odd. 1 hour ago, Young Bard said: Dannex - There was something about their vote on Connie last cycle that felt slightly... opportunistic to me. I don't really think that someone who was genuinely looking for Eliminators would seriously think Connie's claim was genuinely suspicious (Dannex pointed out there's no reason for a Villager to claim Elim, but I'd point out there's equally no reason for an Elim to claim Elim either, so that's not a convincing argument). It's entirely possible that Dannex isn't suspicious of Connie, but simply wanted to vote Connie out because of their chaotic playstyle, given this comment, but... frankly, I just came out of the AG where players trying to dictate how others should play SE was a huge frigging issue that became a mess, and the whole thing just makes me really tired, so... I'm going to do my best to give Dannex the benefit of the doubt and hope he's not doing that. Moderate Elim I would actually concur with this, especially since they seem vehemently against claiming Saboteur when they haven't been in the past. Do keep in mind that Condensation never lies, so that might distort things. Noted for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quintessential Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 I'm trying to decide how much effort I want to put into this... last time I did really long analyses in an SE game I ended up burnt out afterward and didn't even care that I was up for the exe, so I'd rather avoid doing that... but on the other hand, I don't know what I think. Ideally I'd be going back through all the posts that Liranil and Bard have made to try to get a bead on them--and probably the posts by Dannex, Gears, and Ash... and the posts by everyone else? To try to figure out what I think because as it is I don't know anymore. I still find Bard's voting on but their recent analysis feels vil to me--especially the fact that they marked way more people as elim reads than could actually be elims... for some reason, that doesn't seem like an elim thing to do... ahhhh I don't know. why does it feel like Gears' analysis is trying to pocket me??? .......if so it's working. Okay, so I think I'm gonna revise my elim guesses again... I've decided that I don't want to experience burnout so I'm not gonna do any hardcore ISOs. But this is... my thought-process, more or less. Spoiler Ash/Books Quinn Gears Liranil Orlok/Connie Dannex Kings Reading Random Bard Of these people, I know that I'm village, so pool of suspects becomes Spoiler Ash/Books Gears Liranil Orlok/Connie Dannex Kings Reading Random Bard Much as my tinfoil brain keeps shouting at me to look more closely at Liranil ("It could have been a bus!" "Notice that Illwei never had a final vote on Liranil!" etc.), I'm just gonna remove her for the moment because I read her as vil and she did have a vote on Illwei. Spoiler Ash/Books Gears Orlok/Connie Dannex Kings Reading Random Bard Some might not agree with me on this, but I'm removing Gears from the list for the moment. My tinfoil brain is even more appalled at this one, given that I've been pocketed by Gears before, but he really truly does seem normal to me. Especially with his recent analysis of all of Illwei's posts ("in which he didn't actually say anything we didn't know already!" "That's just easy village points" etc.). I'm also removing Bard for the moment--their analysis felt village, especially the fact that more people were listed as elim reads than could actually be elim... which I feel because I currently mildly suspect everyone XD so that seems vil to me. Spoiler Ash/Books Orlok/Connie Dannex Kings Reading Random From here it gets harder. If I assume that none of Bard/Liranil/Gears have pocketed me, and if I'm assuming a 4-person elim team originally, that means half of this pool is elim... but I don't actually know whether that's the case... I'm just gonna assume it is. To do otherwise would make things way too complicated and make room for way too much tinfoil. Next off the list is Connie. This is a really dumb reason, but Connie has yet to actually lie in a game--and notice, while she's said multiple times that she's claiming elim, she's never said she is one. Also, having seen elim!Connie, she's usually... more subdued, if that makes sense? Less engaged in the game. I think. Spoiler Ash/Books Dannex Kings Reading Random Of course, at this point I've broken the assumption that all of the exe trains on villagers had elims in them--but that could very well have been a poor assumption, especially in a game where most of the elims are probably inactive (if they weren't, I'd guess they'd have tried to create a counter-train to Illwei--there were only three votes on her, after all). So. Uh. I think I'm gonna address Dannex next, but as of starting to write this I have no idea what my conclusion will be. Because Dannex seems... basically normal. Dannex frequently proposes crazy ideas and plans and such, but then I think he's done that as elim too... like, the one time that we were both elims, that is. vil!me has never played with elim!Dannex before so I'm not totally sure what that would look like. But... okay, look. I think. So, looking at Liranil's summary post (or looking at the actual thread, it's evident there too), Illwei really never did seem to make up her mind about Dannex? Like, she read him as vil C1 but then sussed him C2 and then defended him C3... I... that doesn't feel e/e to me? It draws too much attention to Dannex in connection to her, something that I'd think Illwei would avoid... I'm not sure. If Dannex seems to be the best exe option at the end of this cycle I'll vote for him, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere I think (even though my instincts are currently screaming at me that this is a terrible idea...) Spoiler Ash/Books Kings Reading Random Great, okay, so I know at least one of the people in that box is vil (unless there really was a 5-person team? But that seems... really excessive lol--also would note that if it was 5 people then we're at exe-lo right now... jeez just thinking about that reminds me of QF48 XD but it's probably a 4-person team so probably not something we need to worry about... right?) but I don't know which one. Or two or three or four, if I screwed up somewhere already (who are we kidding, I probably did : P). Uhhh okay.... of these people I suspect Reading the least for some reason? Or maybe not... Illwei poke-voted them twice, and the second time she asked if they were even in the game... idk, that could be genuine or faked and I have no idea which : P I do still think Kings is weird... and Ash. So I guess if I had to remove someone it'd be... Reading. Illwei's vote on Random last-minute there could have been an IKYK but... idk. I just don't know. So I guess my new guess(ish) for the elim team is Illwei/Ash-Books/Kings/Random. But I'm. Not sure. I don't know what I thought I'd get out of this oof. I suppose I should also list the people I'm pretty(?) sure aren't elim... that would be Liranil, Connie, Gears, and Bard in order of certainty (Liranil being most certain). Sooo yeah. Uh. How about Random Bystander, huh? I'm gonna end up changing that vote like ten times this cycle aren't I... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Quintessential said: Connie has yet to actually lie in a game--and notice, while she's said multiple times that she's claiming elim, she's never said she is one. I feel like that’s actually a point in the other direction. The difference between saying “I’m claiming Elim” and “I’m an Elim” seems so minute to me that’s it’s practically nonexistent. I’d forgotten that “not lying” is one of Connie’s things, but that kinda makes me even more suspicious of her. Obviously she could just, decide to start lying, so this isn’t a huge point either way, but I think it points towards Elim a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condensation Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Dannex said: I feel like that’s actually a point in the other direction. The difference between saying “I’m claiming Elim” and “I’m an Elim” seems so minute to me that’s it’s practically nonexistent. I’d forgotten that “not lying” is one of Connie’s things, but that kinda makes me even more suspicious of her. Obviously she could just, decide to start lying, so this isn’t a huge point either way, but I think it points towards Elim a bit more. Bold mine. No. Never. That's just not who I am, and all of my trust that I've built up would be gone. What would be the use? To win one game? Maybe if I hadn't won a game already, but I've won two. And yeah, this could be a lie given what you just said, but you've got to trust me. I won't lie. It makes me hurt just thinking about it. Why does this make you more suspicious of me? Friend, I think you may be tunnelling a bit, like you did on Gears a couple of games ago. When they claimed elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, Condensation said: Why does this make you more suspicious of me? Uhhhhhhhhhh Connie: “I’m an Elim!” Also Connie: “Btw, I’ll never lie ever. Literally ever. So I’ve essentially 10000000% confirmed I’m Elim.” Also also Connie: “So why is that sus?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condensation Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dannex said: Uhhhhhhhhhh Connie: “I’m an Elim!” Also Connie: “Btw, I’ll never lie ever. Literally ever. So I’ve essentially 10000000% confirmed I’m Elim.” Also also Connie: “So why is that sus?” Like Quinn said, I never actually claimed elim. So your statements are an oversimplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danex Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) Exhibit A: 4 minutes ago, Condensation said: I never actually claimed elim. Exhibit B: Quote I'm changing my playstyle again! And this time I'm claiming elim!!! Exhibit C: Connie Edited February 13, 2021 by Dannex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condensation Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Dannex said: Exhibit A: Exhibit B: Exhibit C: Connie I said that I was claiming elim. I never actually said that I was an elim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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