Mid-Range Game 48: The Southern Wind

[Liranil]

4 minutes ago, Condensation said:

I said that I was claiming elim. I never actually said that I was an elim.

Okay... But what's the difference?

[Condensation]

1 minute ago, Liranil said:

Okay... But what's the difference?

I can say that I'm claiming elim. Is that not a claim in itself? If I straight up say "I'm an elim" (doesn't count) then that is an elim claim, but it also means that I have to be an elim to keep from lying.

So I think in this situation, claiming elim is NAI. Especially in the way I did it.

[Gears]

@Dannex, "claim" has many meanings. You seem to be making the assertion that Condensation is claiming [to be] elim. There are other meanings. EX: Claiming [ownership over] elim, claiming [the life of] elim, claiming [a kill on] elim, claiming [the position of] elim, claiming [to be] elim [at a future date], claiming [responsibility for] elim, claiming [the right to] elim, claiming [a demand to be] elim, claiming [calling for] elim, etc. Do you understand? Condensation is not declaring alignment, but instead being deliberately vague with word choice.

[Liranil]

Okay. So. Reads & such. I was going to reply to other people's posts and I may still, but idk. Going over Illwei's posts last night really burned me out, and I was thinking about going over other people's reactions to her, but I don't wanna anymore. 

As a note of explanation, some of these are based on gut, but I try to explain my reasoning as much as possible.

---

@Quintessential: Pretty clear to me. She could have easily switched her vote off Illwei at the end of last round to at least force a tie/RNG. It could have been a bus, but honestly a bus on an imposter with two other votes? Doesn't make much sense when you could get a villager and bring us that much closer to exe-lo. That could give away the elim team maybe... but not as likely. Village.

Ash/@Flyingbooks: Books really only posted asking for summary of what's happened, which kinda makes me sus. But I also don't remember anything from Ash striking me as off? Idk, I need more info. Null. 

@Gears: Was laying pretty low in earlier round, but mentioned a robotics conference yesterday (which is really cool by the way! I always wanted to try robotics but never got the chance). But that doesn't apply for the early rounds I don't think? Idk, something just feels different about your tone this game than in previous games. That's not necessarily AI, but my gut says Mild Elim.

Orlok/@Condensation: I reeeeeally don't like Connie dancing around the whole claiming elim thing. I'm with Dannex on this, it doesn't do the village much good (and considering that Illwei, an elim, was one of the people who argued that it is useful for the village, I'm not inclined to believe that). Idk, I feel like in my last game(s?) with Connie, she was more helpful, and I don't know if this new chaos is village chaos or elim chaos. Mild Elim.

@Dannex: One of the people Illwei threw sus on at the end of the round. I don't think that's AI. Illwei alternated between sussing/defending Dannex throughout different cycles. Then again, I don't think an elim would tunnel in on Bard or Connie as much as Dannex has. Mild Village.

@Kings_way: I still stand by my earlier sus about how close of attention Kings was paying to the thread C1 while not contributing anything. I may have missed it, but I don't think they even gave a reason for that. They've continued to be pretty quiet and not contributing a lot. Mild Elim.

@Shard of Reading: Illwei poke voted Reading twice in round one and questioned whether they were actually in the game or not. Nothing really stands out in my memory as weird with them, but I did think it was interesting that Illwei said "Reading is in the game, right?" when voting Reading the second time. Could've just been Illwei teasing, but could have also been Illwei jokingly poking at her fellow teammate. That's not really significant, sure... but why not. Null-Mild Elim.

@Random Bystander: The other person Illwei threw sus on at the end of the round. Again, I don't think that's AI, and Illwei didn't mention or interact with Random much until towards the end of C3. Illwei ended with a vote on them, which could be an attempt at distancing, but I feel like Illwei would anticipate us seeing it as that. Null-Mild Village.

@Young Bard: Illwei didn't interact with Young Bard much at all, and I'm not sure if that's because they were just less active or what. I mostly like their analysis post above, but I'm having a hard time remembering what they contributed before now. Null.

---

Other random notes:

- I think it's weird that Illwei brought up a 5-imposter team and then immediately dismissed it when I responded about it. I don't know if that means anything, but I always prefer to overestimate, rather than underestimate. (Oh how I long for my first game where we were told exactly how many imposters there were :P) 

- Illwei tagged 6 people towards one of her last posts: Connie, Random, Dannex, Kings, Shard of Reading, and Young Bard. I'm fairly certain that at least one of these six is an imposter, and Illwei may have tagged them to try to ping them so they'd save her because they weren't looking in the doc. The four that are still alive that weren't tagged are me, Quinn, Matrim, and Gears. Matrim was crew, I know I'm crew, I'm fairly certain Quinn is crew. Matrim, Quinn, and I all voted on Illwei, but I'm not sure why Illwei didn't tag Gears here. Was it because she stated right before that she was willing to vote Gears? Or cuz she knew he wouldn't be on?

- Illwei sussed Dannex/Random at the end of last round, which I mentioned above that I don't think is AI. It's all an IKYK situation and doesn't matter too much, but she says that they didn't think she was sus but stayed on their other votes. That could be a way to clear them, but that could also all be an imposter strat to fake clear them. (I can't wait to read the elim doc after this game to see what in the world was happening last round. Were Illwei's teammates letting her down, or was this all some kind of crazy strategy?)

Also, to this: 

14 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Still, I can't help but feel an Elim wouldn't attract that much attention to themselves, so...

You mean like Illwei did? XD 

I'm gonna try to keep up with this better... For now I'm going to throw a vote on Kings_way.

[danex]

9 hours ago, Condensation said:

I said that I was claiming elim. I never actually said that I was an elim.

Those are absolutely the same thing, but I guess you could choose to twist it that way. 

Alright then, let’s do this. Say “I’m a villager”. Because I believe you about the “no lying” thing. Others may not, but I currently do. So if you want me to remove my vote, just say “I’m a villager”. Without any phrasing or technicality that could possibly mean otherwise. 

[Young Bard]

8 hours ago, Dannex said:

Those are absolutely the same thing, but I guess you could choose to twist it that way. 

Alright then, let’s do this. Say “I’m a villager”. Because I believe you about the “no lying” thing. Others may not, but I currently do. So if you want me to remove my vote, just say “I’m a villager”. Without any phrasing or technicality that could possibly mean otherwise. 

Ugh, I'm kinda peeved by this - this game is about trying to find Elims through analysis. With Connie's no-lying policy, if she said "I'm a Villager" and with us all knowing her policy, it would immediately eliminate her as a suspect, which invalidates the whole point of the game. So I hope Connie does no such thing.

Unfortunately, my Dannex lynch hasn't taken off, so I guess I'll switch my vote to Random Bystander, who was next highest on my suspicions list. I feel like I'm really going to regret that, but it's 3:30am and my brain is mush, so... I should sleep and consider my life choices in the morning (or possibly afternoon )

[danex]

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

this game is about trying to find Elims through analysis.

I’d say that’s exactly what I’m doing. Playing the meta by using what I know about other people’s playstyles to judge if they are Elim or not. 

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

With Connie's no-lying policy, if she said "I'm a Villager" and with us all knowing her policy, it would immediately eliminate her as a suspect

I doubt every single person in the game absolutely believes Connie’s no-lying policy. And that’s a good thing, it shouldn’t absolutely clear her. But I’m the one who currently has a vote on her, and I do currently believe her. 

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

which invalidates the whole point of the game

This is more of a “game-meta as a whole” opinion, but I think there absolutely should be methods in-games to give hard proof that someone is Village. Almost every game I’ve ever played has had some sort of mechanic that made it impossible to ever 100% clear someone. Like, you could tell that some mechanics were added for the sole purpose of making proven villagers impossible. I think games should have ways of hard-clearing. Like Visual Tasks in Among Us.

I see this as the same thing, but instead of using the game’s ruleset, I’m using a player’s personal playstyle. And again, it doesn’t even hard-clear her that much, since it’s still all based on things she’s said. But it would be enough for me personally to remove my vote.

[Gears]

@Dannex, villager = "a person who lives in a village". Village = "a group of houses and associated buildings". Condensation is a villager by virtue of dwelling in an area with houses and buildings. Saying "I'm a villager" means nothing. Crewmember = "a member of a crew". Condensation is a Crewmember by virtue of being a member of the crew of people who entered the ship. Any claim could be taken into a context outside the game. RP, banter, chatter, sarcasm. The words mean nothing. EX: "I am a Southern Influence Commerce Syndicate Crewmember" could indicate faction, or it could indicate self-identity, or roleplay character identity. This line of questioning leads nowhere. You seem to be over-emphasising this, and this is not kind to Condensation. I ask that you cease and desist this futile effort.

[Quintessential]

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

This is more of a “game-meta as a whole” opinion, but I think there absolutely should be methods in-games to give hard proof that someone is Village. Almost every game I’ve ever played has had some sort of mechanic that made it impossible to ever 100% clear someone. Like, you could tell that some mechanics were added for the sole purpose of making proven villagers impossible. I think games should have ways of hard-clearing. Like Visual Tasks in Among Us.

As you say, this is more of a game-meta as a whole opinion, but I find that games with mechanics that absolutely confirm someone's alignment somewhat miss the point of mafia. It's a social deduction game, and including ways to 100% clear someone makes it less about deduction and more about exploiting that mechanic. I feel like it kind of takes away some of the complexity of the game, the process of using logic and reasoning and reads instead of roles to figure out who the elims are--that's kind of what I like about mafia, I guess? Idk, I've still had fun playing games with alignment confirmation mechanics, but I don't think I'll ever run one. And, as a sidenote, I always play Among Us with visual tasks off  my family and I used to play with them on but then we realized that roughly half the group got visual tasks each game, so we could basically confirm all but one of the crewmates before the imps even got in a kill.

[Liranil]

Kings Way Gears

Because I'm sick of structuralism/poststructuralism

[Condensation]

11 hours ago, Dannex said:

Those are absolutely the same thing, but I guess you could choose to twist it that way. 

Alright then, let’s do this. Say “I’m a villager”. Because I believe you about the “no lying” thing. Others may not, but I currently do. So if you want me to remove my vote, just say “I’m a villager”. Without any phrasing or technicality that could possibly mean otherwise. 

No. Because then that would set an example. And when I am an elim, then people could just say that I didn't say I was a villager, so I must be an elim.

[Straw]

The cycle is over!

[Straw]

Everyone stood around and did nothing. Eventually people decided they needed to kill somebody, so they half-heartedly killed First of the Stars, who was just a random bystander. Meanwhile, the Saboteurs killed Third of the Dawn.

---

Random Bystander has died! She was a Crewmember Trapper.
Liranil has died! She was a Crewmember.

The Crew's Mess has been sabotaged!
The Brig has been repaired!

Vote Count:

Random Bystander (2): Quintessential, Young Bard
Gears (1): Liranil
Orlok/Condensation (1): Dannex

GM Notes:

• The cycle will end on February 16th, at 5:00 PM EST.
• Don't forget to put your actions in!
• Remember that PMs are closed for all players, unless they are a Messenger.
• @Kings_way and @Shard of Reading are receiving warnings for inactivity! If they do not post this cycle, they will be replaced.

Hospital Document

Ship Status:

Spoiler

Role-Specific:

• Aviar Holding Area
• Brig
• Main Office
• Laboratory
• Trapper’s Quarters

General:

• Crew’s Mess
• Hospital

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ashbringer - AraRaash AKA First of the Bone / @Flyingbooks
2. @Quintessential
3. The Unknown Order - Third of the Moon Crewmember
4. @Gears - Fourth of the Dark
5. Liranil - Third of the Dawn Crewmember
6. Archer - Third of the Eclipse Crewmember
7. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel / @Condensation
8. @Dannex
9. BrightEyes2 - Second of Noon Crewmember Security Officer
10. Matrim's Dice - Philico Crewmember
11. @Kings_way - Sixth of the Twilight
12. @Shard of Reading
13. Random Bystander - First of the Stars Crewmember Trapper
14. Illwei Saboteur Messenger
15. @Young Bard - Second of Daybreak
16. TJ Shade - Sixteenth of the Night Crewmember

Edited February 16, 2021 by Straw

[danex]

Is it safe to assume this is LyLo?

[Flyingbooks]

I thought that the cycle would end sooner since I misread EST as PST. I wasn't on yesterday because I had lots of homework, but now I'm going to read through the past cycles and analyze them a bit.

[Gears]

This is the end unless we are right. I suspect that at least one of the sleepers is our catch. There are 8 of us remaining. If there are three Saboteurs, 5-3, if we choose wrong, we lose since they merely must reach parity. If there are 2, we are one day off. 

People I trust: Quinn, Second of Daybreak.

People who are asleep: Sixth of the Twilight, Reading

Other: Danex [who seems to be overplaying the case against claiming Saboteur], Condensation [who claimed Saboteur], Books [who has done absolutely nothing and replaced a sleepy person]

We must be right. As such, I shall vote Sixth of the Twilight (Kings_way) as a start. Third of the Dawn made an excellent point about attention without substance. I would be willing to consider Reading as an acceptable alternative, and I am easily swayed by quality analysis if you have a better candidate.

[Quintessential]

@Straw that's the cycle 3 Hospital doc again.

Crew's Mess has been sabotaged. Not exactly sure why, but then I guess the elims would have more of an idea of the scope of PMs than we do. 

39 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Is it safe to assume this is LyLo?

This is XLo. I can't imagine there were 3 imps. 

Vote Counts:

C1:
The Unknown Order (4): Liranil, Quintessential, TJ Shade, Young Bard 
Liranil (2): Matrim's Dice, The Unknown Order
Matrim's Dice (1): Illwei
Orlok Tsubodai (1): Archer
Young Bard (1): Dannex

C2:
BrightEyes2 (4): Ashbringer, Liranil, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential 
Quintessential (4): BrightEyes2, Illwei, TJ Shade, Young Bard

C3:
Illwei (3): Liranil, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential
Random Bystander (2): Illwei, Condensation
Kings_way (1): Random Bystander
Condensation (1): Dannex

C4:
Random Bystander (2): Quintessential, Young Bard
Gears (1): Liranil

Young Bard

Edit: Sorry, I'll say more later but I'm playing Among Us with my family. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Quintessential

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Young Bard

You make an excellent point, but we cannot be wrong. I would like your thoughts on everyone, even those you "trust". I hereby demote Second of Daybreak from a trust to a "Noted" until further analysis sways me. 

Ah yes, the Sabotage. Crew's Mess seems a bit silly. I'd have done the Main Office.

All living people:

Nettle: I know nothing, null.

Quinn: Practically cleared at this stage.

Condensation: Chaos, null.

Danex: Noted.

Sixth of the Twilight: Asleep

Reading: Asleep

Second of Daybreak: Suspicious voting patterns, did pretty analysis.

Things to note: 3 remain, <= 1 of Danex and Daybreak, >=2 of the nulls. There is the possibility that the Saboteur!sleepers will die tonight, in which case, we should ignore them unless they return. Captain @Straw, are there any more substitutes, or will those who are asleep die? [OOC: Do you have pinchhitters, or will they be inactivity killed?]

[Quintessential]

15 minutes ago, Gears said:

You make an excellent point, but we cannot be wrong. I would like your thoughts on everyone, even those you "trust". I hereby demote Second of Daybreak from a trust to a "Noted" until further analysis sways me. 

Right, precisely. I fully intend to give them--though most of them haven't changed because almost no one has said anything  but I was playing Among Us with my family and I have to eat dinner now and I'm kind of exhausted so... idk, expect them in like 14ish hours probably, unless I can find the energy to write something up tonight.

[Straw]

2 hours ago, Gears said:

Things to note: 3 remain, <= 1 of Danex and Daybreak, >=2 of the nulls. There is the possibility that the Saboteur!sleepers will die tonight, in which case, we should ignore them unless they return. Captain @Straw, are there any more substitutes, or will those who are asleep die? [OOC: Do you have pinchhitters, or will they be inactivity killed?]

I have one more pinch hitter. If neither inactive shows up, I'd probably try to find two.

[Condensation]

Hello! Your friendly neighbourhood... elim here.

There are at least two of us. Maybe three. I don't know, I think three is unlikely, don't you? But it's probably safer to assume three.

That means we've got to get an elim!

I RNGed and got 6. So Kings_way.

[Quintessential]

So... ugh I'm having a lot of trouble finding the motivation to actually put much effort into this... I keep trying to go back and read through earlier cycles and get reads, but most of the stuff that's been said is either hard to parse or was said by people who are already dead. The truth is that most people still alive in this game haven't said much, so I don't have much to say about them. 

Part of the problem is that I have reasons to suspect way more people than could possibly be elims at this point. We know there aren't more than three--probably there are exactly three--otherwise we'd have lost by now. But here are the things that stand out to me:

• Bard always has a vote on the exe with the most votes, or one of the tied exes, except for the cycle where we exed Illwei, when they didn't vote at all. That's why I'm voting them.
• Ash/Books I find kinda sus because they're the only non-confirmed-villager on the Brighteyes train. I instinctively find Ash sus for being less active/helpful than usual but I know that's due to the LG and irl stuff so I shouldn't... besides that, I can't get a read on Books because they've said precisely nothing of substance and haven't voted. Other points against Ash, though: he was listed on Illwei's "people I would kill if I were elim list" but hasn't died yet (and I'm like 90% sure that list was genuine and more or less copy-pasted out of the elim doc, edited to add in current elims). He was also listed in her "people I'd be down to exe today" list the cycle we exed her (but like, before there was serious pressure on her). That felt like distancing... I'd be surprised if at least one of the people on that list wasn't elim--which means one of [Ash/Books, Gears] is elim, assuming I'm right about that : P
• Dannex seems really odd to me because of the interactions between him and Illwei. The problem is, I can't tell whether they're e/e or not. The post where he makes those crazy guesses for roles, for example, sounds... idk, in retrospect it sounds fake to me, but then the subsequent interactions between him and Illwei around it sound genuine so I don't even know at this point.
• Kings I find odd because of some of the things they've said... idk, they're a chronic inactive so I really have no idea. At all. What to think of them. 
• Connie I was reading slight village because I don't see her totally not caring about others' perception of her as elim, whereas she pretty much doesn't here. But now I think she's somewhat off for the guess of less than three elims left? pretty sure we kind of had a consensus that there would be 4 elims in total, so not sure where that came from... it seems way too obvious to overtly attempt to convince us we're not at XLo when we almost certainly are. But then maybe that's just part of the elim-claim persona? I really can't tell.
• Gears, there are a few things off to me. He hasn't had a final vote on anyone this whole game, for one thing, despite being on the more active side--or, well, maybe not active but definitely paying attention. Was also on Illwei's list of people-I-would-NK and on her list of people-I'd-be-down-to-exe, like Ash.
• Reading I have nothing against directly, but Illwei poke-voted them twice... which seemed to me like her trying to get one of her teammates to show up while also distancing? idk. maybe I'm being paranoid with that. I mean at this point I'm sussing literally everyone so I'm definitely being paranoid about some people.

So yeah. Those are my thoughts, and the problem is really that I can see anyone left in the game being elim. There just isn't enough for me to go off of at this point. I don't have the energy to wade through Illwei's posts the way Liranil sort of started to do... idk. But... hmmm, actually, one thing I would be willing to look at specifically is vote history. Maybe I can figure something out from that?

C1 (you can ignore these spoilers and skip to the analysis, they're just for my reference)

Spoiler

Matrim votes Bard 
Archer votes Orlok/Connie 
Illwei votes Quinn 
Quinn votes Quinn 
Illwei unvotes Quinn
Illwei votes Quinn
Bard votes Archer
Bard votes Random
Matrim unvotes Bard
Matrim votes Quinn
Dannex votes Bard (not e/e, I think.)
Quinn votes Bard
Illwei votes Reading
Liranil votes Kings
TJ votes TUO
Matrim votes Liranil
TUO votes Matrim
Quinn votes Liranil
Liranil unvotes Kings
Illwei votes Matrim
Bard votes TUO
Illwei votes Reading
Quinn votes TUO
Illwei votes Liranil
Liranil votes TUO
Illwei unvotes Liranil
TUO votes Liranil
Illwei votes Matrim

C2

Spoiler

Matrim votes Liranil
Illwei votes Matrim
TJ votes Brighteyes
Quinn votes Illwei
Illwei votes Liranil
Liranil votes Matrim
Matrim votes Illwei
Illwei votes Matrim
Brighteyes votes Ash
TJ votes Quinn
Bard votes Quinn
Matrim votes Quinn
Quinn votes Brighteyes
Liranil unvotes Matrim
Brighteyes unvotes Ash
Illwei votes Quinn
Liranil votes Brighteyes
Matrim votes Brighteyes
Ash votes Brighteyes
Brighteyes votes Quinn

C3

Spoiler

Illwei votes Quinn
Illwei votes Ash
Quinn votes Connie
Connie votes Connie
Matrim votes Quinn
Dannex votes Connie
Random votes Kings
Matrim votes Illwei
Quinn votes Kings
Connie unvotes Connie
Illwei votes Quinn
Quinn votes Illwei
Connie votes Random (RNG?)
Liranil votes Illwei
Quinn votes Liranil
Quinn votes Illwei
Illwei votes Liranil
Illwei votes Random

C4

Spoiler

Bard votes Dannex
Quinn votes Random
Dannex votes Connie
Liranil votes Kings
Bard votes Random
Liranli votes Gears

C5 (thus far)

Spoiler

Gears votes Kings
Quinn votes Bard
Connie votes Kings

Analysis

Spoiler

For this portion, I'll look at all of the votes that could actually tell us something. Votes by villagers don't give any information apart from what was said in their post, because villagers don't have TMI. In the case of votes by elims on villagers, we can say for sure why the elim felt comfortable voting on that villager. And votes by someone on themself are obviously not helpful. So I'll look at the votes that don't fall into those categories--which end up being votes by people who are still alive (minus me) and votes by Illwei on people who are still alive (again minus me).

C1:

• Bard votes Archer 
• Bard votes Random
• Dannex votes Bard (not e/e, I think--Dannex pounced on Bard's post with... admittedly rather odd reasoning, but I can't imagine e!Dannex wouldn't have been aware that it wasn't firm ground to stand on. the vote stayed on Bard for the whole cycle, too--which could be distancing I guess but I still don't think this is e/e)
• Illwei votes Reading 
• Bard votes TUO (hey does anyone else find it odd that all three people Bard voted for in C1 were vil? The first two were poke-votes, and Bard was also kind of the tipping point on the TUO exe. Now, that could just be a villager with bad luck, but...)
• Illwei votes Reading (twice? idk, this seems weird to me. But I don't have much else against reading because Reading hasn't done much : P)

C2:

• Bard votes Quinn (the thing that strikes me as odd about Bard's votes at this point is that they're actually not sheeping, now that I look at it. In fact, they typically have voted before it became obvious that an exe was going to succeed or almost succeed, which is probably why no one else has noticed... I'd think it was elim coordination except that everyone else on the me and TUO trains was vil, so that's not it. I have no idea what to do with this, tbh).
• Ash votes Brighteyes (but the way he does it strikes me as... well, either he's village or he's a very good actor. He was genuinely pressed for time, but voted anyway while acknowledging that he wasn't doing so on much of any information or understanding. The fact that he voted at all suggests to me that he felt he had a stake in things, but that doesn't make sense if he's elim because both me and Brighteyes were vil... so he could have just not voted? idk, maybe I'm just letting myself get pocketed by the fact that he didn't want to vote me, but looking more closely at my reasons for sussing him, they actually are all dependent on either this vote, which I read as very vil in context, or things that Illwei has said, which knowing her could very well be IKYKs. So I guess I'd take Ash off the table as a suspect for now, and put him at a comfortable null.)

C3:

• Illwei votes Ash (this is... I don't even know. I'd imagine the elim!Illwei would occasionally leave random votes on teammates for a while, even to the end of a cycle, as a distancing tactic, but the only people that could be at this point are Reading and Ash... and at this point I think Ash is vil? Or rather, Books is vil.) 
• Dannex votes Connie (I... this felt really odd and opportunistic to me. Hmmm y'know I'm getting kinda sus of Dannex at this point...)
• Connie votes Random (RNG? I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she's telling the truth about having RNGd that result.)

C4:

• Bard votes Dannex (at this late stage, I have to assume that means that Bard and Dannex aren't e/e. Of the two I... ughhh idk because I'm sus of both of them but I'm starting to lean more towards Dannex than Bard)
• Dannex votes Connie (Dannex/Connie also not e/e. Still. That's two cycles in a row now.)
• Bard votes Random (switches vote to Random because the Dannex exe was not taking off, and Random (who had as many votes as anyone else at that point) was second on their suspicion list. That seems reasonable to me. So actually, I... don't... ughhh I'm going to regret this but I'm starting to see Bard as more vil again. I don't knowww)

C5:

• Gears votes Kings (oh, so Gears actually has voted this game--just now, on someone else's reasoning. Not helping with my opinion of him tbh. Also, I can't imagine Gears and Kings could possibly be e/e. It's too late in the game for that kind of distancing--or at least I'd like to think so--and there's no reason for the team to bus right now.)
• Connie votes Kings (I'm still giving her the benefit of the doubt with the whole RNG thing I think. I don't have the energy to get into a whole mental discussion as to whether Connie's elim-and-RNG person is an IKYK or just for fun or a little bit of both)

Other things I noticed:

• Okay I'm now quite a bit more sus of Gears because I realized while skimming the thread (skimming! it didn't even take a deep read to see it) that all he's done this game is write summaries of what others have said and mildly agree or mildly disagree with them. He hasn't voted once and he hasn't given reads until this cycle, just now. Which feels not like him at all and also just elim.
• Ash actually did do a somewhat analysis post--a summary in basically the same style as Liranil's (except he used underlines instead of bold, and it was on everyone and not just Illwei). Makes me feel a little better about slightly village reading him.
• Dannex's response to me requesting that we condense votes and asking him if he'd be willing to switch from Connie to Illwei was that he thought condensing was a good idea, but wasn't sus of Illwei. Could be nothing, but given how she flipped it stood out to me and doesn't make him look so great imo.
• Ahhh mild sus on Reading for the same reason as with Gears--Reading popped in briefly during the cycle where we exed Illwei, posted a summary of everything everyone has said, provided no opinions apart from that Liranil and I had looked kind of odd, and then left without voting.

To Summarize

Dannex/Bard not e/e
Dannex/Connie not e/e
Gears/Kings not e/e

My opinions of everyone (updated):

• Ash/Books: village. Actually probably my strongest village read at this point. Ash's vote in C3 felt genuine, and that vote was between myself and another villager. He seemed to actually care about the outcome, as an elim would not have in that case, so I'm reading that as vil. He also did an in-depth analysis post even despite being really busy. Books hasn't said much, but they're in the LG and it's not like they're a super active player anyway, so I consider that NAI for them.
• Quinn: village, obviously.
• Gears: elim. Has only voted once, this cycle. That was on borrowed reasoning from a confirmed villager. This is also the first cycle that he's provided any reads--all of his previous posts look helpful but they're really just him summarizing what's happened, with barely any opinions give except things that are obvious, like me and Liranil being more or less cleared after Illwei flipped. Also there are some connections to Illwei but those same connections exist for Ash, whom I'm reading village, so I figure they're not really relevant to my argument. 
• Orlok/Connie: village. Orlok didn't do anything, so no reads from before Connie joined. I might be able to see elim!Connie doing the whole claiming-elim-and-RNGing thing, but I think it's far more like something vil!Connie would do. Also, Connie is almost certainly not elims with Dannex and I think Dannex is elim, so there's that too.
• Dannex: elim. Weird interactions with Illwei, fake-sounding roles post, continued insistence on Connie being sus or more sus than Illwei (in one instance), I could go on but you get the point.
• Kings: the fact that there's been... not really that much resistance? on Kings and that the reasoning against them is so slight makes me think that they're just a scapegoat for the elims. @Condensation would you consider re-RNGing your vote? I don't really think Kings is a good exe at all. 
• Reading: elim. hasn't said very much, did one long post that looks like analysis until you realize it's exactly what Gears has been doing--writing out summaries but not providing much of an opinion on anything.
• Bard: village. The order of Straw's VCs is misleading  and Bard's votes on TUO and me occurred before we were actually major exes. Ohh but now I'm doubting myself because I'm realizing that's exactly when I try to vote for people as elim because it's the point in the train that people look at last. And I wouldn't be too concerned about this--I can get some stuff wrong, right?--except that I can't imagine a universe in which Bard and Dannex are both elim and I was planning to vote for Dannex... and we have to exe an elim this cycle... 

So, in short, I'm voting for Gears. Is this the right decision? I have no idea. But I'm doing it anyway because he's the only person I don't have any counterarguments for. I can think of reasons anyone else that I'm elim-reading could be vil, but not Gears. 

My current elim-team guess is Gears, [Bard, Dannex], Reading.

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Quintessential

[Flyingbooks]

I'll join the vote on Gears, since there's slightly more evidence against them than against Kings and I don't like exeing inactive players who can't defend themselves.

[Quintessential]

41 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

I'll join the vote on Gears, since there's slightly more evidence against them than against Kings and I don't like exeing inactive players who can't defend themselves.

Books/Gears not e/e

Also this feels so so off to me and I don't even know why and now I'm doubting myselfffff

[danex]

5 hours ago, Quintessential said:

• Dannex: elim.  ...  fake-sounding roles post,

What was wrong with my role analysis?  ;-;

 I mean, besides that fact that it was completely inaccurate.

But actually, what sounded ‘fake’ about it? Was just a basic role analysis, I’ve done one every game for like the last 3. 

And here’s my mild defense for Vil!Me, look at my D1 posts. It looks like I’m setting up an Archer/Bard future mis-exe. But then Archer was killed by the Elims that same night. Elim!Me would’ve kept Archer alive as a possible future mis-exe.

5 hours ago, Quintessential said:

except that I can't imagine a universe in which Bard and Dannex are both elim

....why? This might be shooting myself in the foot here, but my interactions with Bard have been very minimal since D1. How are we confirmed v/v or v/e?