Archer he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 More people had died. Brick sat cross-legged, contemplating the news while chewing on a branch. He had heard of another stick, on a planet far away, infused with special magics. That snack would be a worthy adversary, he thought to himself. The twig snapped in his teeth. “I am not convinced. My vote stands.” Dannex Thanks, Illwei for posting Striker’s posts. I remain convinced of Danex’s guilt because I believe at the start of the game, the elims decided to do their best to get through a few rounds without an elim kill. That meant supporting each other until it became necessary to cut their losses. This is a Quick Fix. The elims probably aren’t playing LG-style 3D chess. Overthinking their actions is going to be the death of us. I don’t want to be the one who has to explain to the screaming dead doc why we ignored all the clues we had. As a reminder, Striker made the following incriminating comments: “I'm not really sure where I stand, because I think Dannex could just be a very defensive player, so the defensiveness could just be that. But I also know that I get really defensive as an elim myself.” -Second post “I’m not sure how I feel about Dannex. I’m leaning more village than elim, but we’ll see.” -Fourth post “I’m still leaning village on Dannex. Anyone willing to vote Ash? Their vote on Dannex just felt off to me.” -Fifth post (Convenient counter-wagon attempt.) “I mean, I don’t want to exe you and I don’t want to exe Dannex.” -Seventh post After this, they began distancing themselves from Dannex. I propose that this was because the vote was Danex had become a lost cause for the Elims. With the potential for vote switching and manipulation, they were willing to try to save them with a vote manip (possibly two, if the village Grey’s Warder influenced them), but that was because they figured they were outed anyway, so they might as well waste our next day kill. I would have expected elim!Danex to make the night kill order on Liranil if that was the elim’s mindset, but that can be explained by the fact that Striker was a certain kill, per Liranil’s public statement, so they were even more at risk. From late Day One on, Striker’s behaviour changed, which I believe reflects a regrouping by the elim team and a change in strategy, making their comments after that less alignment indicative. Adding some meta analysis, giving some of the Elim power players no Warders makes sense because then they don’t have to justify themselves to a village player. And as we’ve said, a Brown on each side also makes sense. If Dannex is an elim, James and Gears look good while Quinn, Matrim, and especially Illwei will be suspicious. I suspect there’s a few villagers who were convinced to drop the Danex wagon, otherwise the debate wouldn’t be so vigorous, but there’s certainly some talkative elims among us, so I am suspicious of the way the group has moved on from what I view as these obvious red flags. Plus one on Breaker's idea, anyone whose partner dies should consider coming forward.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Archer said: More people had died. Brick sat cross-legged, contemplating the news while chewing on a branch. He had heard of another stick, on a planet far away, infused with special magics. That snack would be a worthy adversary, he thought to himself. The twig snapped in his teeth. “I am not convinced. My vote stands.” Dannex Thanks, Illwei for posting Striker’s posts. I remain convinced of Danex’s guilt because I believe at the start of the game, the elims decided to do their best to get through a few rounds without an elim kill. That meant supporting each other until it became necessary to cut their losses. This is a Quick Fix. The elims probably aren’t playing LG-style 3D chess. Overthinking their actions is going to be the death of us. I don’t want to be the one who has to explain to the screaming dead doc why we ignored all the clues we had. As a reminder, Striker made the following incriminating comments: “I'm not really sure where I stand, because I think Dannex could just be a very defensive player, so the defensiveness could just be that. But I also know that I get really defensive as an elim myself.” -Second post “I’m not sure how I feel about Dannex. I’m leaning more village than elim, but we’ll see.” -Fourth post “I’m still leaning village on Dannex. Anyone willing to vote Ash? Their vote on Dannex just felt off to me.” -Fifth post (Convenient counter-wagon attempt.) “I mean, I don’t want to exe you and I don’t want to exe Dannex.” -Seventh post After this, they began distancing themselves from Dannex. I propose that this was because the vote was Danex had become a lost cause for the Elims. With the potential for vote switching and manipulation, they were willing to try to save them with a vote manip (possibly two, if the village Grey’s Warder influenced them), but that was because they figured they were outed anyway, so they might as well waste our next day kill. I would have expected elim!Danex to make the night kill order on Liranil if that was the elim’s mindset, but that can be explained by the fact that Striker was a certain kill, per Liranil’s public statement, so they were even more at risk. From late Day One on, Striker’s behaviour changed, which I believe reflects a regrouping by the elim team and a change in strategy, making their comments after that less alignment indicative. Adding some meta analysis, giving some of the Elim power players no Warders makes sense because then they don’t have to justify themselves to a village player. And as we’ve said, a Brown on each side also makes sense. If Dannex is an elim, James and Gears look good while Quinn, Matrim, and especially Illwei will be suspicious. I suspect there’s a few villagers who were convinced to drop the Danex wagon, otherwise the debate wouldn’t be so vigorous, but there’s certainly some talkative elims among us, so I am suspicious of the way the group has moved on from what I view as these obvious red flags. Plus one on Breaker's idea, anyone whose partner dies should consider coming forward. Clearly you haven't read the part where we have locktowned Dannex yet. Edit: Also, this doesn't actually line up with what happened yesterday. Liranil chose late in the day, Quinn has been pushing hard for Dannex for a long time, a great deal of what you posted about Striker occured at the end of Day 2, not during Day1, so there was no time to distance -- in short, this whole thing is fabricated. Also, a day kill is only wasted as Town if we kill other town. It's never a waste if we kill Elim; Also, if it was a lost cause, why are all the people you listed as sus actively still protecting him? I sort of expected this a little bit, but not like this. SO Quinn Archer You're not off the hook, but Archer is really creating a narrative here, way more than you were. This is blatant, if you take the time to read. Edited January 17, 2021 by James Brafin Doubleposting
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Clearly you haven't read teh part where we have locktowned Dannex yet. I think he has, but is choosing to tinfoil things, like Gears :P.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 I'm thinking Illwei, James, Matrim lean village, I still do think Dannex is village but I'd like to have the switch of 'why are we voting for a villager, let's go for anyone else' to happen a bit sooner. Only one Grey Ajah went in Dannex's defence, which I think is an overall plus. I'll start with Quinn I think, since she was the most concerned with preventing the kill on Striker.
Condensation she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 May I have a TL;DR? I'm not planning on reading at least 7 pages. Although I'll respond to this: Quote Changing the subject but- Did we ever figure out how Connie survived? @Condensation are you a Warder? I'm not going to say.
James Brafin he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Illwei said: I think he has, but is choosing to tinfoil things, like Gears :P. Clearly not, as he doesn't think the Elims are playing 3d Chess (to quote the man)
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Breaker said: Consider me your mortal foe. I'd vote to Shrek you on the spot if it wouldn't violate my oaths. !!!! eeeeeee!!!! :3 I've always wanted a nemesis <3 <3 <3
James Brafin he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: !!!! eeeeeee!!!! :3 I've always wanted a nemesis <3 <3 <3 You'll have to share then, because he's also mine. I can be your short and nerdy wingman.
Condensation she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Illwei said: @Condensation hasn't said much, so I'd like to give her time to try and contribute. Sorry, I haven't been able to get on the computer. I'm trying to contribute as much as I can, but it's hard. This moves so fast. On that note, I likely won't be on much to at all on Monday.
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, James Brafin said: You'll have to share then, because he's also mine. ;-; 11 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Clearly not, as he doesn't think the Elims are playing 3d Chess (to quote the man) ...Huh. So, not tinfoiling, but he thinks that the Elims are just...seriously distancing, which I don't think happens in QFs all that much :// hm. @Condensation I am going to quote at you the posts I think you should read :P. Edited January 17, 2021 by Illwei
Condensation she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: All right, thank you! I read them. You analysed Striker. Today I found out that I say raccoon the same way that people in the UK do.
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Condensation said: All right, thank you! I read them. You analysed Striker. aaaaaaaaand do u have any thoughts on the subject?
Mat he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) I'm back... 1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said: The fact that I'm more "mayory" than in my other village games is because my other village games were MR46 (where I operated mostly in PMs and ended up pocketed by an elim), LG72 (where I tried to do the same minus being pocketed but you had already set up your own PM web and I couldn't compete, and then I died C3), and QF49, the first village game that I played where I didn't have PMs, but where I died to the C1 exe. Basically, either I did my "mayoring" in PMs or I didn't get the chance. Here, there are no PMs and I wasn't killed off C1. Also, I'm still gaining confidence with the whole forum mafia thing. It would make sense for me to be less outspoken in my second game than in my sixth, right? MR46: I GMd that, so I definitely can attest to your massive amount of PMing :P. LG72: Did you really die C3? It seemed like you lived longer than that. That game also had excessive PMing, QF49: Which game was this? Oh right I didn't play that one. You died C1 so can't use it to prove a point, but neither can I. Quote Also, it's not like I haven't flip-flopped before; prime example would be LG72 D1, which I believe I already mentioned. I voted, unvoted, voted, unvoted Connie all in one cycle. And it's not like it was read as village then either. Everyone said it looked elim then too, iirc I don't think I said it looked elim then, but even if I did, it wasn't for the same reason I do now. This feels more... fake. Quote Iirc Illwei looked into the votes and pointed out that most of the people on Dannex at the end were on him earlier in the cycle. They may have switched around a couple of times, but it was likely that at least one of the people who was vote-maniped was on Dannex when they were vote-manipped, rather than someone else. Additionally, there was still a vote-manip on him this cycle, which makes me think that someone wanted to save Dannex two cycles in a row. Obviously not fool-proof logic, but the circumstances taken together certainly made it look like someone was removing votes from him on purpose, multiple cycles in a row. I personally think this is Grey!Illwei saving Dannex, but I dunno :). 1 hour ago, Lotus said: I think the idea that their must be one village brown and one elim brown falls into the gamblers fallacy of statistics. If roles were proportioned truly randomly and independent of each other, their is a equal chance that both browns are village, regardless of what alignment of the other is. Of course, the roles aren't completely random, but still... Actually, this is entirely false, the distribution itself is not random in the slightest. Honestly reads to me like you're trying to pick up the shade from Burnt and increases my suspicion on the both of you. 46 minutes ago, James Brafin said: I sort of expected this a little bit, but not like this. SO Quinn Archer You're not off the hook, but Archer is really creating a narrative here, way more than you were. This is blatant, if you take the time to read. I don't think Archer would be this blatant, but maybe that's me vil tunneling him. A skeptical eye has been turned to you, @Archer 30 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I'm thinking Illwei, James, Matrim lean village, I still do think Dannex is village but I'd like to have the switch of 'why are we voting for a villager, let's go for anyone else' to happen a bit sooner. Only one Grey Ajah went in Dannex's defence, which I think is an overall plus. I'll start with Quinn I think, since she was the most concerned with preventing the kill on Striker. Devo voted early gasp 29 minutes ago, Condensation said: I'm not going to say. :), I bet you are one... My order of exeing: Quinn or Lotus Whichever one of ^ is still alive Burnt Connie ....Archer? But depending on various flips, of course. Edited January 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Condensation she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: aaaaaaaaand do u have any thoughts on the subject? I didn't notice any scenarios (in the 3rd one, Striker ISO) where Striker was village. That's false dichotomy. So instead of the two you did (elim!Striker, elim!Lotus, village!Dannex and elim!Striker, village!Lotus, elim!Dannex), there are actually far more than that. (elim!Striker, elim!Lotus, village!Dannex; elim!Striker, village!Lotus, elim!Dannex; elim!Striker, village!Lotus, village!Dannex; village!Striker, elim!Lotus, village!Dannex... Lots and lots of possibilities.) Quote Or let's look at what happens if he flips vi Would you like to chat about this?
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I'm thinking Illwei, James, Matrim lean village, I still do think Dannex is village but I'd like to have the switch of 'why are we voting for a villager, let's go for anyone else' to happen a bit sooner. Only one Grey Ajah went in Dannex's defence, which I think is an overall plus. I'll start with Quinn I think, since she was the most concerned with preventing the kill on Striker. :0 are we...rubbing off on you? :P.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 I'd like to avoid the thing where I read 7 pages 30 minutes before rollover in order to figure out who to vote for. 1
James Brafin he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Are the roles random? I've heard that thrown around a bit but I'm not sure now. @TJ Shade You would know. Will you tell us, that's the question.
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I'd like to avoid the thing where I read 7 pages 30 minutes before rollover in order to figure out who to vote for. ... :/ ... ;-;
Condensation she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Well, no duh. I'd prefer to avoid that as well. Can I get a vote count? @TJ Shade
James Brafin he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 Spoiler You really got to call us out like that huh
Mat he/him Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Are the roles random? I've heard that thrown around a bit but I'm not sure now. @TJ Shade You would know. Will you tell us, that's the question. The roles are randomly distributed among the finalized player list, but how many of each role and which alignments have which roles is not random and should be balanced to the GM's judgement. I'm assuming TJ did that, of course- I don't actually know- but if he didn't he did something different than every other game on this site Edited January 17, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: My order of exeing: Quinn or Lotus Whichever one of ^ is still alive Burnt Connie ....Archer? But depending on various flips, of course. 1. It's Shrekking 2. No killing Burnt.
+Lotus she/her Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Breaker said: 1. It's Shrekking 2. No killing Burnt. Meh I perfer X-ing
Guest Breaker Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I'd like to avoid the thing where I read 7 pages 30 minutes before rollover in order to figure out who to vote for. Please, this ^^^^^^ This past cycle-- I nearly said yesterday -- I hardly could keep up. Edited January 17, 2021 by Breaker Changed turnover to cycle. New terminology, lo siento
Illwei Posted January 17, 2021 Posted January 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, Breaker said: This past turnover -- I nearly said yesterday -- I hardly could keep up. Never before have I been in a QF like this before. smh.
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