Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) tbh Illwei you're sus to me. But not sus enough for me to really make a move. Esp since I've been warned you like to play a bit weird haha Edit: Can we still be fwends? Edited January 16, 2021 by Breaker
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, Breaker said: tbh Illwei you're sus to me. But not sus enough for me to really make a move. Esp since I've been warned you like to play a bit weird haha Gears is infecting your mind and you mustn't listen to them 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Edit: Can we still be fwends? ... :/ Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei pwetty pwease don't kill me ;-;
James Brafin he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: I'm confused. I thought you just explained YOUR reasoning to Illwei on Shrekking Dannex. Did Illwei just share the reasoning to NOT Shrek Dannex to you? Yeah. Basically, I just completely misread the sentence. I attributed the prepositional phrase "For a mislynch" as to be referring to Lotus, who we know nothing about, and not Dannex. Which was not right. At all. Very clearly, as I now realize, from mentally reviewing Dannex's more recent posts which I have not parsed. To put in in image form: Spoiler 1
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, James Brafin said: This here. There's no way he should be able to know this is a misshrek. (This is the third time I've quoted this post I think) And this is the third time I’m explaining it. Here, I’ll just rewrite that entire paragraph. Quote ORIGINAL: I think the two vote removes on me were the only two vote manips we have. I’d guess one was from someone who thinks I’m village, and the other was from an Elim trying to make me look sus for a mislynch. REWRITE: So two people removed a vote from me right? I’m fairly certain we only have 2 Grey Ajahs, so apparently they both removed a vote on me. I also think that one of the Greys is a Village, and one of them is an Elim. I’ll guess the Village Grey just thinks I’m innocent, so it makes sense that they’d remove a vote. But if the other Grey is an Elim, why would they remove a vote from me? What would an Elim have to gain from that? Maybe they wanted to make it seem like I’m an Elim? Maybe the Grey Elim wanted it to look like he [the Grey Elim] was healing a teammate [me], to make the village more suspicious of me? When I’m fact I am not a teammate of him [The Grey Elim]. So he is framing me for a misshrek this cycle. Cycle 2. By making me look like an Elim Teammate. Am I being clear enough?
James Brafin he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) Illwei, I trust you. I know your secret. Edit: 1 minute ago, Dannex said: And this is the third time I’m explaining it. Here, I’ll just rewrite that entire paragraph. *sigh* Yeah, I finally got there. Sorry. Edited January 16, 2021 by James Brafin
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 It should also be noted that all of that is irrelevant now anyway, since we realized that Greys target a vote for removal, not a player to remove a vote on. And since votes were flying around in complete madness, even up to the last possible second, it’s likely just a coincidence that they both ended up on me.
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, James Brafin said: Illwei, I trust you. I know your secret. yesyesyes I do indeedy have a secret yes most definitely. So. Targets. we have 12 hours. I guess I could try to sleep and then reread in the morning but that seems stressful :P. Mat Gears Ash Breaker Quinn Lotus Archer Striker Order Burnt Books Devo Kings Way Fun starting list of people to kill who's it gon' be Also wait @Breaker what? you think I'm suspicious? for whyyy? I'm being completely serious here and making sure you're not just absorbing Gears' permanent Elim read on me.
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) I’m just gonna toss a vote on Archer for the same reason I tossed a vote on gears earlier. Archer has been online recently, but hasn’t replied to any of my defenses, or anything at all actually. Edited January 16, 2021 by Dannex
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Actually, Gears acknowledged the permanent Elim read and says I might be wrong. He's a large part of why I won't go after you. He is my teammate, and we work as a team!
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Actually, Gears acknowledged the permanent Elim read and says I might be wrong. He's a large part of why I won't go after you. He is my teammate, and we work as a team! That's not really...an answer? on why you're suspicious of me? :P. Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: That's not really...an answer? on why you're suspicious of me? :P. Yeah but it's 1:42 AM and I'm tired, and it's mostly gut, and I don't like to trust my gut, OR to start accusing people, really. I did so last game during my aggressive-personality day, mostly. I can try to make something coherent tomorrow, but no promises. I'm just letting you know my gut feel; I begin no campaign against you, and continue to want to hold my vote for tie-prevention unless I get a stronger direction. I'll see y'all tomorrow. Ima hopefully try to nap now
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Did I already vote so far? I think my vote is on Mat rn. Striker
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just in case somebody noticed me lurking, Im struggling to sleep, got up to get water, opened my phone, opened chrome, and this page opened, since it’s what I had open when I closed chrome. Starting to get paranoid, but fret not, I shall remain optimistic and gleeful.
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Uhhhh... We're not... that... zealous about activity like that. I say, still browsing the Alleyverse at almost midnight when I've repeatedly told myself to go to sleep.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 I'm sure there's probably breakdowns and these same shared thoughts but i needed to organise the info in my brain or else ill immediately forget it. Again. Serious burnt mode. Go! This cycle: Page 1: Spoiler Votes tried to remove Lotus. They Survived. A warder. Ensuring their death would potentially mean removing a useful villagers role. Condensation attacked. They Survived. Could mean anything. RIP Shard of Reading (Yellow: Protection role). What did they do last cycle? anyone they pointed fingers at in particular? Voters: Matrim, James, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks, Devotary, Ash, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, Striker, Connie, Quinn, Archer. Non voters: Gears, (Shard of reading), Unknown order, Burnt, Kings way Two vote removals happened, breaking the tie in dannex's favour Liranil is a Green Ajah (kill role), claimed the kill on reading Dannex continues to claim brown. Breaker continues Blue claim (Learn whos targetting) WGG conversation. My thoughts- unlikely Page 2: Spoiler James believed Connie and liranel were basically confirmed- assuming this is referring to connies survival and liranels openess about kill role? Matrim votes Connie, theorising a WGG. Illwei disagrees with the idea of it being WGG and kill worthy Page 3: Spoiler Quinn talks possibilities other than WGG for Elim!Connie survival. Doesn't think should treat the WGG possibility as solid vote reasoning Matrim clarifies his connie vote was tentative More WGG discussion. Imo, not a WGG. A new contender approaches. Archer votes Dannex. Archer does a nice long post of analysis. A worthy read. Oh and I see you noted I didn't contribute much as far as suspicions. Apologies, first few cycles I struggle with that- very indecisive person here. Hopefully should have some soon! Also- Archer village read at this point, his post also has me more cautious of Dannex TJ confirms elims can in fact hit themselves. How fun! James points out we don't know if Lotus was a missremoval just because they turned out to be a warder Discussion on Danex and calling the lynch a miss when we dont know- elim slip or just miscommunication? People seem to be undecided on Lotus Page 4: Spoiler Shrekking and Misshrekking are now cannon Quinn suspects Dannex and votes due to the vote manip (i'm inclined to agree here). James acknowledges this as a good point, but is holding off voting. Gears votes Dannex following quinns post Matrim joins the Dannex train, and then immediately hops off. Thinks that this is a frame job. Illwei wants to sheep James. Adorable She also points out ash was the first to mention vote manip and wgg possibility Breaker suggests finding the greys (vote manips), Lotus cautions this, because we cannot guarantee they would both be evil or that either are actually evil at all. But if i was going to look at all, I'd look at those who voted lotus because they trusted Dannex, rather than a true lotus sus. Quinn does a post. Have i mentioned im getting village vibes yet? Page 5: Spoiler There is discussion on voting out dannex and night killing Lotus Illwei posts vote analysis in regards to when people voted in regards to end of cycle Illwei doesnt want Dannex to die. Interesting. Also votes Ash Lotus claims to not be bonded to Illwei Page 6: Spoiler Matrim posts suspicion list. Has Lotus and Connie as sus, as well as quinn. Votes quinn, mentioning their flip-flopping dannex votes Ash looking into who would kill Connie Matrim continues to insist WGG, stating that they "don't see anyone killing village!Connie in the situation she was in" Illwei talks about the Connie situation. Illwei clarifies her initail vote on Lotus was a gut thing Dannex votes Gears for not responding to a thing Page 7: Spoiler Gears states he suspects Dannex for the Liranil vote. Thinks Liranil should kill Connie James beleives Dannex slipped, appearing to know he was frammed. This gets disputed for a little TJ best Vote Count Man James likes hugs? Page 8: Spoiler I accept cats and plushies as currency for my vote James votes Dannex Illwei: 'Buddy you gotta be casua, homeslice breadslice pal" Illwei da heck Ash has a Hemalurgic Kitten and I'm Jealous Page 9: Spoiler Matrim disagrees with James lockElim assesment of situation James is Illweis top village read. Refer back to previous comment about Illwei sheeping james. Its adorable. James lists quinn as highest village read Connie lists Mat or Illwei, primarily illwei Breaker lists Liranil TJ Clarifications WOO Illwei votes connie for indescicion Page 10: Spoiler James removes dannex vote. Illwei: "James Locktown" Illwei votes striker People vibes that be vibing: Spoiler Quinn - Village James - Village Archer - Village Liranil- Village killler Dannex- Soft elim Lotus- Neutral Breaker- pure element of chaos Illwei- Fwend. But neutral to soft elim. Is James biggest fan, but, a lot of what i've seen of her posts aren't... well. Shes active and participating, but feels more like shes saying things that seem useful but aren't actually alignment indicative i think? Its hard to put it into words but. Shes giving me. vibes.... So. It seems to me. The suspicions are because people didnt die when they were meant to. I mean true we have little info. But these poor fellows almost died! I guess there's no mercy here? So one thing that came to mind- killing Lotus. They appear to be a warder. Killing them would mean removing their associated aes sedais role. I don't believe we know what that is. I'd honestly call for Lotus to reveal that if they want hope of survival I. hm. Dannex is a useful role. But does useful give a free pass? Scanner roles are the most delightfully fun things to have when aligned wrongly. IMO connies better left alone In all honesty, i want to observe these three. See how they interact, what they do. However. We need information. And people have been very one way or the other about these. So. simply, one should go. We need more information at this point. Also. This is the best thing about being Australian. I could take the time to do a cycle analysis without pages rapidly increasing in number 1
|TJ| he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Author Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Also. This is the best thing about being Australian. I could take the time to do a cycle analysis without pages rapidly increasing in number Spoiler Edited January 16, 2021 by TJ Shade 1
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: Illwei- Fwend. But neutral to soft elim. [1]Is James biggest fan, but, a lot of what i've seen of her posts aren't... well. Shes active and participating, but feels more like shes saying things that seem useful but aren't actually alignment indicative i think? Its hard to put it into words but. Shes giving me. vibes.... '...hm is this a consensus opinion? @everyone EDIT: [1] Most definitely because there be people who still wanna kill him still. tryna stop that bc yall didnt listen to me abt reading ;-; [2] hm. and yet you find archer ai? you find quinn ai? this reads lists makes me sad ;-; Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei
Liranil she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Last time I was on here there were four or five pages, and now there are ten??? And here I thought a QF would be fine during grad school. I'm doing my best to get caught up before rollover, but I anyone wants to give me a TLDR that would be helpful... And @TJ Shade can I get a vote count? Sorry if you just did one. I did see that someone tagged asking me about my suspicions of James, and they're mostly based on his excessive tunnelling on me last round which just didn't make sense to me. I need to get caught up again so I'll have a better read on things.
|TJ| he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Author Posted January 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Liranil said: And @TJ Shade can I get a vote count? Sorry if you just did one. Here you go: Quinn0928 (1) : Matrim's Dice Archer (1) : Dannex StrikerEZ (1) : Illwei Illwei (1) : Ashbringer Dannex (1) : Archer 2
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Burnt, you forgot to mention my public disagreement with Gears, where we settled by Rock-Paper-Scissors that we wouldn’t collectively vote Dannex yet. Seriously, you missed one of the best scenes in your recap. Were you trying to protect people from spoilers? It was a great scene
Quintessential she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said: So one thing that came to mind- killing Lotus. They appear to be a warder. Killing them would mean removing their associated aes sedais role. I don't believe we know what that is. I'd honestly call for Lotus to reveal that if they want hope of survival Hmmmm that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that. Then again, we know who the Green and (probably) Brown Ajahs are, so if we do decide to exe Lotus I doubt it would hurt us too much? Or, well, I guess it'd be bad to lose another Yellow Ajah... Also, somebody--I don't remember who--pointed out something that I thought was interesting: we didn't see any vote-manips on Lotus. Obviously that could be because votes were flying all over the place at the end of C1, and the two vote-manipped people happened to both land on Dannex, but if we set that aside for a minute it says something about Lotus: the elims didn't care if she was exed. Now, if she were an elim then the elims would know she'd survive that exe, but that'd be one life down for her. Especially if her Ajah was also elim, they would want to protect both her lives if they could rather than using one in the first cycle. Unless, that is Dannex was also an elim and they were more concerned with protecting him. So even in the case where Lotus is elim... I mean, it doesn't look so great for Dannex? Now, consider the other possibility: Lotus is villager (and probably not bonded to an elim Warder), and so the elims were like "sure, why not." They removed a vote from Dannex, either to protect a teammate or to sow confusion in the next round. That in and of itself isn't indicative of Dannex's alignment. However, keep in mind that Lotus wasn't even a viable exe option until the very end. Dannex had been consistently in the lead all cycle, tied first with Connie or Liranil and only at the very end with Lotus. And the arguments for voting Lotus off just... well, they were basically just gut. So Dannex is an exe target for the whole cycle, and every time one of the other trains falls away another picks back up, often with... not very much? reasoning behind it. That could just be coincidence, but it makes me think that maybe there's something more going on there... I'm not going to vote Dannex yet, because maybe there's something I've missed, and besides this isn't really enough to merit voting off our semi-confirmed alignment scanner. But this makes me uneasy about Dannex. Also, typically C2 would be spent parsing the information gained from the C1 exe, using the alignment of the dead person to figure out some of what was going on. This time no one was killed, so we can't actually do that. We won't be able to make sense of the votes C1 until one of those two people dies, and honestly I'm super skeptical of the Lotus train because it started from basically nothing and snowballed in the last half-hour of the cycle, and the only reason it picked up speed was "to keep Dannex from being exed". Anyway, @Dannex and @Liranil, who are you targeting this cycle? Have you decided yet?
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 I still think we should be doing a better job of helping Liranil. We have to assume they’ll be elim targeted soon, so we need to use the resource well. Uh, no offense. We cool, right, Liranil? I can trade hugs as an apology for earlier suspicion
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Books - isn't staying as active as Elim games have been. No analysis (unless I missed it), minimal discussion. Village for pure meta because otherwise they are looking suspicious. :P. so putting them at null/+ right now. Lotus - More confident vibes. They are basically always the same - Minimal posting/Mostly fluff. They are giving off confident vibes though in their posts so far. not as unsire of themselves. Null/+ Breaker - the problem here is I just don't know if it's a...me problem. last game Breaker gave off very strong village vibes, and I don't know if I was able to see that because of Breaker or because I was just an Observer. Null/- Ashbringer - They seem a lot more serious in this game than usual? I still have problems with their analysis post...they haven't posted all that much recently. They feel much more like they're coasting than anything, and that "whodunnit" post still feels like it came from someone who didn't wanna say no for fear of looking suspicious. Gears - I guess this is a pure vibes read. almost? pure vibes? there have been a few recent posts that feel like genuine solving to me. Slight Village.
Quintessential she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Illwei said: Ashbringer - They seem a lot more serious in this game than usual? I still have problems with their analysis post...they haven't posted all that much recently. They feel much more like they're coasting than anything, and that "whodunnit" post still feels like it came from someone who didn't wanna say no for fear of looking suspicious. (er well I mean in Ash's defense he probably hasn't posted recently for no other reason than that he's asleep. Most of the last few pages has appeared overnight. but yes, the rest of that is fair).
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said: (er well I mean in Ash's defense he probably hasn't posted recently for no other reason than that he's asleep. Most of the last few pages has appeared overnight. but yes, the rest of that is fair). That's not really true :P. Ash posted at midnight which was... middle of last page I believe. only things since then have been you, me, and burnt. (and TJ but he's not real so he don't count)
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