Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[|TJ|]

Two kills this cycle, so many possibilities:

1. Inactive kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Main suspect - The God King.
2. Semi-active/cautious kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Probable, but not highly likely. Main suspects - Walin, Kidpen, Karnage, Emi
3. Roleblocked kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Cannot speculate the suspects but players with roleblock abilities and Steel Traps, be wary. Your targets could be kandra.
4. Semi-active Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Will not speculate anything pertaining to the Coinshot for obvious reasons.
5. Roleblocked Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Same as 3. Players with roleblock ability and Steel Traps, your targets could have been the kandra or Coinshot.
6. Coinshot-Kandra double-tap, kill from Eliminator: In this case, the Eliminator would have obviously targeted Elandera, meaning Coinshot and Kandra double-tapped Kynedath. This is fairly possible since Magestar has been advocating for a Kynedath kill for a long time, and it's reasonable to assume the Kandra and Coinshot took his advice (or he's the Kandra and took his own advice since it's the first time he got the opportunity to kill since becoming a Kandra )
7. Eliminator-Kandra double-tap, kill from Coinshot: Possible, but I cannot fathom why the Kandra would want to kill Elandera. 
8. Coinshot-Eliminator double-tap, kill from Kandra: Again, I cannot think of a reason the Coinshot would want to kill Elandera.
9. Roleblocked Eliminator, kills from Coinshot and Kandra: Well, whoever roleblocked the exact elim who would submit the kill is very very lucky indeed. It's a 1/13 chance, but they could reduced it by not opting to block inactives/semi-inactives. So even by just removing Walin, Kidpen, and TGK, they have a 1/10 chance of hitting the elim submitting the kill. Not improbable.

Just thought of another thing. @StrikerEZ, the Kandra does not lose its kill ability after it changed bodies right? It still can kill,yes? 
To deduce which of the following options is most likely, I need to know who has role-block abilities and Steel Traps. So far, 2 Trap have been bought. One by Ventyl and one by a player known to Pyro. Ventyl died and the Trap went to one of Lahilt, Pyro, Elandera or Ashbringer. If it went to Elandera, it is now mostly with an Eliminator and we have no way to know whom she targeted last night. If it went to either Pyro, Lahilt or Ashbringer, and if they did use their Steel Trap, their targets are suspects.

Ashbringer is the only confirmed (if claim is to be believed) player with role-block ability. Did you target someone using your Pulser ability? If you did, please tell, but do not reveal the player you targeted. If there are 3 kills in N5, then your target is a suspect. Unless you targeted the kandra and its kill action gets delayed till N6. I'm not quite sure if it works that way ( @StrikerEZ, if Ash used his Pulser ability on Kandra, will the Kandra's kill action take place in N5 or N6?) You could also be the kandra, but we'll cross that bridge when we need. I'm also not sure if the Kandra could use allomancy via charged or uncharged spike ( @StrikerEZ, can you confirm?  ).
Highly doubt if we have another role-block player with 3 dead Leechers. Maybe there's a small possiblity of an elim Pulser, but I personally don't think so. 

Magestar is soft-cleared for elim due to his suspicion and push on Kynedath's vote. I need to go back and check if his suspicion on Kynedath arose before or after Araris died. If it was after, he's a likely candidate for Kandra.

4 hours ago, Walin said:

Noooooooo Elandera!! At least we got a Loyalist in return, but I must mourn Kynedath's loss as well. Elims are valuable members of the team, giving us reads and info that we can go back to analyze.

 Not sure I agree with this. Kynedath was only active during D1 and has not posted at all since then. Not sure how we can get reads to analyse from them.

Edited June 16, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Young Bard]

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@StrikerEZ, if Ash used his Pulser ability on Kandra, will the Kandra's kill action take place in N5 or N6?

If the Pulsing/attempted kill took place on N4, then the kill would be delayed to N5.

[Magestar]

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Magestar is soft-cleared for elim due to his suspicion and push on Kynedath's vote. I need to go back and check if his suspicion on Kynedath arose before or after Araris died. If it was after, he's a likely candidate for Kandra.

But why? 

I don't really mind all the suspicion of me being the Kandra because it doesn't really impact the game in any major way, but it's kinda funny how many of you think I'm Kandra.  It'd be funny if I was the Kandra, but it's even funnier because I'm not.    I guess I'm glad you don't think I'm an Elim.

For some reason I'm kinda worried that the Ventyl lynch was a trick.  I feel like it might have been an Elim bus gambit.  That's probably just my paranoia speaking, though.  The lynch was pushed kinda hard and without much reason to be an Elim trick.  The Elims were actually doing pretty well up until this last cycle anyway.

With Kynedath gone I don't expect there to be more than two to three Elims left.  That puts us in a pretty decent place to win the game.  Additionally, I feel pretty confident that Ash, TJ, and Pyro aren't Elims.  I think Lahilt probably isn't an Elim either.  The God King is inactive, so it's not really worth spending the lynch on them, IMO.  That leaves Karnage, Emi, Kidpen, Mist, and Walin.  That's about two to three Elims in a group of roughly five lynch options.  I think the best options are probably Karnage and Mist, with Kidpen coming in a close second.  Mist's voting patterns seem a little odd for an Elim, so I'm going to throw a vote on Karnage and see how that one shakes out. 

I'll try and get some more analysis out later in the cycle.

[Emi]

Well, you all suspect that I'm and elim... could I know why?

[Magestar]

29 minutes ago, Emi said:

Well, you all suspect that I'm and elim... could I know why?

Well, I personally didn't say that I suspected you as an Elim.  At this point, it's more of a case of not thinking anyone else is really likely to be an elim.  With this few players left, I think you're one of the only ones who could still be an Elim.  The reasons I'd suspect you are mostly that nothing you've done has been super village, and that while being pretty active on other parts of this site, you haven't really been all that active here.  Could be an Elim trying to fly under the radar.

I'd still be more suspicious of Karnage right off the bat though.  They've been involved in more suspicious things, and they voted for me in a fairly opportunistic way last cycle.   

I'm still roughly as suspicious of Mint as I have been in previous cycles, but their votes last cycle didn't seem to make a lot of sense for an Elim.  It was kind of weird how little opposition there was to the Ventyl lynch, actually.  That's what makes me worry it was some kind of gambit.

Then again, considering how rampant inactivity has been in this game, it's also entirely possible that the rest of the Elim team just wasn't active enough to try and save one of their members.  The inactivity is really a shame too, because this is such a good game otherwise.  

[|TJ|]

13 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I don't really mind all the suspicion of me being the Kandra because it doesn't really impact the game in any major way, but it's kinda funny how many of you think I'm Kandra.  It'd be funny if I was the Kandra, but it's even funnier because I'm not.    I guess I'm glad you don't think I'm an Elim.

Yeah, I just realised we don't have to worry about Kandra. Their next kill comes in N6. We could try to win by then (if the Kandra doesn't have some secret ability).

I'll do a short analysis on the players left and end with my biggest suspicion for the cycle. I'll ignore the Kandra suspicion for now, and just keep it simple - village or elim.

Karnage:

• Ventyl voted for Karnage out of self preservation when the voting was 3-3. 
• Karnage voted for Ventyl the same cycle.
• Opportunistic voting
• Semi-active with very little analysis

Verdict: Slight village

Pyro:

• Attempted to save Coda and Drake. Not much to go on after that.

Verdict: Slight village

Lahilt:

• Retracted vote from Experience at a critical point on the instructions of Ventyl. I do not know why you would want to trust Ventyl to listen to him.
• Since my vote on him due to his retraction, he's been strongly opposed Ventyl voting for him in D3 and D4. Bus?

Verdict: Neutral leaning very slighty towards elim

Kidpen:

• In their words, they give off a weird vibe

Verdict: No read

Mist:

• Voting very close to rollover for the first time
• Broke ties for Hatz and Experience
• Voted for Kynedath 
• Their actions by themselves do not seem elim-y, but Ventyl's interactions with them, especially the poke vote and the retraction saying they did not mean to vote for them does not sit well.

Verdict: Neutral leaning elim

Emi:

• Not much to read on.
• Did not back Ventyl's role-block claim. 

Verdict: Slight village 

Ashbringer:

• Strongly opposed Ventyl right from the beginning. Even with the role-claim, he was wary of Ventyl
• Whispery Whisper Inc. main goal was to out Ashbringer as elim as claimed by Matrim who flipped village. 
• If it is an elaborate bus scheme (which I honestly don't see), only then would they be suspicious.

Verdict: Village

TGK: Inactive

Magestar:

• As stated in previous post, pushed hard for Kynedath lynch, even going as far as to recommend the Coinshot to take them. Bussing an inactive teammate to win trust? I won't assume so for now.

Verdict: Slight village

Walin:

• Active every cycle except the first, but are yet to involve in a single lynch vote. 
• If there is a Connector in the game, Walin would be the best possible candidate as suggested by their lack of votes. As you all can deduce, an elim Connector would be very very dangerous. 
• Role-claim could be done to earn the trust of the villagers.
• Volunteered to help prove Ventyl's role. 
• Kynedath's death was not good because they would give us reads and info. Well, they can only give us reads to analyse only if we're sure they are elim and that is possible only when they are dead. Again, not much to read on since Kynedath is not active since D1.

If we are lynching them, it should be unanimous because if they are Connector, they probably have enough charges to change 2 votes. 

 

[StrikerEZ]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@StrikerEZ, the Kandra does not lose its kill ability after it changed bodies right? It still can kill,yes?

Yes.

[Ashbringer]

Oh dear. So I may have Pulsed either the Coinshot, Kandra, or an Elim.

Uhhh... yeah, I'm not saying who I hit. That would be a bad idea whatever the circumstance. I did hit someone, though. It's just going to be difficult to tell, since daggers, dead targets, and Hemalurgists make it really hard to tell whether my Pulsing hit a kill action or not. If there are only two kills next turn, then I can probably half-clear my target. Assuming they don't kill me for revenge. HELP.

Emi, I don't really suspect you, it's just I'm completely out of leads, and you did interact with Ventyl a lot. I was tunneling on Ventyl for two full cycles, and while I was luckily right, I'm out of leads. So now I have no idea which people to go after. I'll see if I can analyze Kynedath and Ventyl's interactions with people.

I am a little worried that Elim!Mage could have been trying to bus an inactive Kynedath, but like TJ mentioned that's not really a lead.

 

I will say, that it seems like our Coinshot has been killing off inactives, not necessarily suspects of the Village. I'm not entirely sure what that means for the village.

Also, if an Elim Connector has been charging all this time, they can change a LOT more than two votes... 

 

[Magestar]

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Two kills this cycle, so many possibilities:

1. Inactive kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Main suspect - The God King.
2. Semi-active/cautious kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Probable, but not highly likely. Main suspects - Walin, Kidpen, Karnage, Emi
3. Roleblocked kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Cannot speculate the suspects but players with roleblock abilities and Steel Traps, be wary. Your targets could be kandra.
4. Semi-active Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Will not speculate anything pertaining to the Coinshot for obvious reasons.
5. Roleblocked Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Same as 3. Players with roleblock ability and Steel Traps, your targets could have been the kandra or Coinshot.
6. Coinshot-Kandra double-tap, kill from Eliminator: In this case, the Eliminator would have obviously targeted Elandera, meaning Coinshot and Kandra double-tapped Kynedath. This is fairly possible since Magestar has been advocating for a Kynedath kill for a long time, and it's reasonable to assume the Kandra and Coinshot took his advice (or he's the Kandra and took his own advice since it's the first time he got the opportunity to kill since becoming a Kandra )
7. Eliminator-Kandra double-tap, kill from Coinshot: Possible, but I cannot fathom why the Kandra would want to kill Elandera. 
8. Coinshot-Eliminator double-tap, kill from Kandra: Again, I cannot think of a reason the Coinshot would want to kill Elandera.
9. Roleblocked Eliminator, kills from Coinshot and Kandra: Well, whoever roleblocked the exact elim who would submit the kill is very very lucky indeed. It's a 1/13 chance, but they could reduced it by not opting to block inactives/semi-inactives. So even by just removing Walin, Kidpen, and TGK, they have a 1/10 chance of hitting the elim submitting the kill. Not improbable.

I was just thinking about this, actually.  If Araris really was killed without getting to choose a successor, then it's entirely possible that the current Kandra is inactive, especially given how many inactives or partial actives we have right now.  I was thinking it might be more likely than having an inactive coinshot... but I suppose that the coinshot has been somewhat inconsistent in night kills as well, IIRC.  Difficult to say, really.  

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Walin:

• Active every cycle except the first, but are yet to involve in a single lynch vote. 
• If there is a Connector in the game, Walin would be the best possible candidate as suggested by their lack of votes. As you all can deduce, an elim Connector would be very very dangerous. 
• Role-claim could be done to earn the trust of the villagers.
• Volunteered to help prove Ventyl's role. 
• Kynedath's death was not good because they would give us reads and info. Well, they can only give us reads to analyse only if we're sure they are elim and that is possible only when they are dead. Again, not much to read on since Kynedath is not active since D1.

If we are lynching them, it should be unanimous because if they are Connector, they probably have enough charges to change 2 votes.

This is a rather long string of assumptions.  It relies on too many things being true for me to want to vote for Walin.  And I agree with Ash that if there were a Elim Connector, they'd have stored more than enough charges to change two votes.  Additionally, if there were an Elim Connector, I think we'd have seen it used more often.  It's a powerful ability.  Considering Xino was a Rioter, I sincerely doubt that the Elims have a Connector as well.  That would give them way too much lynch control, especially late game.

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh dear. So I may have Pulsed either the Coinshot, Kandra, or an Elim.

Uhhh... yeah, I'm not saying who I hit. That would be a bad idea whatever the circumstance. I did hit someone, though. It's just going to be difficult to tell, since daggers, dead targets, and Hemalurgists make it really hard to tell whether my Pulsing hit a kill action or not. If there are only two kills next turn, then I can probably half-clear my target. Assuming they don't kill me for revenge. HELP.

Emi, I don't really suspect you, it's just I'm completely out of leads, and you did interact with Ventyl a lot. I was tunneling on Ventyl for two full cycles, and while I was luckily right, I'm out of leads. So now I have no idea which people to go after. I'll see if I can analyze Kynedath and Ventyl's interactions with people.

I am a little worried that Elim!Mage could have been trying to bus an inactive Kynedath, but like TJ mentioned that's not really a lead.

I will say, that it seems like our Coinshot has been killing off inactives, not necessarily suspects of the Village. I'm not entirely sure what that means for the village.

Hmm.  I considered arguing that you should share, but after some thought I agree with you.  The circumstances are too unclear to make sharing a good idea.  The difficult bits of the situation is if you did hit an Elim, or if you hit someone random and the lack of a kill are coincidences...

I'd suggest you PM me to say who you blocked but you all seem to be somewhat distrustful of me for some reason.  I'd suggest as an alternative telling someone you trust, but I don't really trust anyone else.    A difficult position you're in.  I suppose we just have to wait until the next night cycle to see what happens.

I'm going to take my vote off of Karnage since TJ's analysis of them kinda tilts my suspicion away from them.  I'll vote for Mist for now.

[Lahilt]

10 hours ago, Magestar said:

For some reason I'm kinda worried that the Ventyl lynch was a trick.  I feel like it might have been an Elim bus gambit.  That's probably just my paranoia speaking, though.  The lynch was pushed kinda hard and without much reason to be an Elim trick.  The Elims were actually doing pretty well up until this last cycle anyway.

With a Kandra still out there and possibly on the Elim doc I think that the Elims would be very careful about bussing a fellow Elim. Unless they would think that having more Elims dead might make the Kandra kill a villager to even things out...( that does seem like a bad idea in my opinion but I am not too familiar with strategies in this game.)

Thinking that the lack of opposition to the Ventyl lynch was an Elim trick. day 3 the lynch was moved from Ventyl and Karnage to Experience for that reason I am slightly suspicious of Magestar who started that. however I am more suspicious of mist who put on the clinching vote.

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Walin:

• Active every cycle except the first, but are yet to involve in a single lynch vote. 
• If there is a Connector in the game, Walin would be the best possible candidate as suggested by their lack of votes. As you all can deduce, an elim Connector would be very very dangerous. 
• Role-claim could be done to earn the trust of the villagers.
• Volunteered to help prove Ventyl's role. 
• Kynedath's death was not good because they would give us reads and info. Well, they can only give us reads to analyse only if we're sure they are elim and that is possible only when they are dead. Again, not much to read on since Kynedath is not active since D1.

If we are lynching them, it should be unanimous because if they are Connector, they probably have enough charges to change 2 votes. 

 

I would like to hear @Walin reason for not voting. I do not think that connector is as likely to be an Elim role but I do think that a Connector with a lot of stored vote power could be dangerous for the village.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh dear. So I may have Pulsed either the Coinshot, Kandra, or an Elim.

Uhhh... yeah, I'm not saying who I hit. That would be a bad idea whatever the circumstance. I did hit someone, though. It's just going to be difficult to tell, since daggers, dead targets, and Hemalurgists make it really hard to tell whether my Pulsing hit a kill action or not. If there are only two kills next turn, then I can probably half-clear my target. Assuming they don't kill me for revenge. HELP.

did the coinshot reveal their role to anybody?

If we could have the coinshot, PM Ashbringer, we could have a likely Elim/Kandra suspect.

or if Ashbringer PM someone who knows who the coinshot is telling them who they roleblocked might work as well.  

Any ideas?

[The Young Pyromancer]

I know the coinshot kill went through. That means it was the kandra. Reveal them to the thread Ash.

[Kidpen]

9 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I know the coinshot kill went through. That means it was the kandra. Reveal them to the thread Ash.

Not sure how you know that, but based on that I agree that you should reveal to the thread @Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer]

I’m in contact with an archivist.

[Lahilt]

(Part the Thirty-second, in which the mistake remained uncorrected, and Doctor Google is suspicious of Araris before his alignment was revealed)

 

The Great And Mighty Game Master: Just so we're clear, you guys aren't using your google doc to do anything besides copy and paste things into it and decide who posts what, right?

 

Confident Indecision Maker(avatar): To my knowledge, that is correct.

 

The Intern(avatar): There was a comment on something that should be added in the editorials. (MAKE A NOTE OF THIS FOR FUTURE EDITORIALS: When Magestar declares his leaving of the Agency, have a parenthesis note saying something like: We brought you in against the rules of the Great and Mighty Game Master and you spurn our great gift by MUTING us? Will do)

Yes, I'd say so.

Ninja'd

 

The Great and Mighty Game Master: Just as long as there's no in-game discussion going on in there, I think it's okay. Otherwise we'd have a problem.

 

Doctor Google: The Doctor examined the Flame-retardant banana. "By jove!" he exclaimed! "This is an illegally-modified banana that was developed by the evil DOCTOR ARARIS back when he accidentally turned himself into a monkey for a week!" The doctor's face was pale. "A controlled substance in 90 percent of countries worldwide... The infamous... Ban-ana!"

 

(The rest of the page is a long disclaimer, explaining that this is fiction, and you should never handle a Ban-ana in real life. If you encounter one in the wild, you should immediately call your local Bioterrorism Prevention Hotline.)

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I know the coinshot kill went through. That means it was the kandra. Reveal them to the thread Ash.

Before I possibly put myself on a kill-list by the Kandra or Elims, how well do you know the Coinshot kill went through? Pulsing isn't a Roleblock, I think it's a redirect, so if all your Archivist knows is that the Coinshot wasn't roleblocked then I don't know if that also means they weren't Pulsed. Plus it's still a 11/13 chance (or however many players there are minus two) that I mistakenly incriminate someone and there was something else weird going on.

Knowing who the Coinshot is would help, but also probably be too risky for such a valuable role. Even in PM, that would be perfect Elim!Windwhisperer bait.

[|TJ|]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, if an Elim Connector has been charging all this time, they can change a LOT more than two votes... 

Quote

Connector: While storing in duralumin, you cannot vote on any players. If you do vote on someone, your vote will be cancelled as if someone Soothed your vote. When tapping 1 duralumin charge, you can change one player’s vote. Changing a second vote requires another 2 duralumin charges. Changing a third vote requires another 3 duralumin charges, and so on for each extra vote you wish to change.

Underline mine. It says to change 2 votes it requires another 2 charges i.e. totally 3 charges. Changing a third vote requires yet another 3 charges i.e. 6 charges. You can charge only during the day. They would have around 3 charges (as they were inactive in D1), just enough to change 2 votes. 

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

This is a rather long string of assumptions.  It relies on too many things being true for me to want to vote for Walin.  And I agree with Ash that if there were a Elim Connector, they'd have stored more than enough charges to change two votes.  Additionally, if there were an Elim Connector, I think we'd have seen it used more often.  It's a powerful ability.  Considering Xino was a Rioter, I sincerely doubt that the Elims have a Connector as well.  That would give them way too much lynch control, especially late game.

It's not so much as an assumption rather than a conclusion drawn by the process of elimination. There is no one more likely to be Connector than Walin. Everyone else has had their vote counted in majority of the cycles. 

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm going to take my vote off of Karnage since TJ's analysis of them kinda tilts my suspicion away from them.  I'll vote for Mist for now.

Fair warning. I have it on good authority that Mist is not someone you can kill in a single cycle. 

I'm like 90% sure that Ash did not Pulse the kandra now. I have very good reasons to believe so, but I think we should wait till N5 to see if there are 3 kills. 

[Lahilt]

@StrikerEZ If a player survives a kill attempt will it be in the writeup?

[Magestar]

31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Before I possibly put myself on a kill-list by the Kandra or Elims, how well do you know the Coinshot kill went through? Pulsing isn't a Roleblock, I think it's a redirect, so if all your Archivist knows is that the Coinshot wasn't roleblocked then I don't know if that also means they weren't Pulsed. Plus it's still a 11/13 chance (or however many players there are minus two) that I mistakenly incriminate someone and there was something else weird going on.

Yeah... there's unfortunately still the possibility that the Kandra simply didn't put in a kill, for whatever reason, and that you pulsed someone else randomly.  I don't think there's really a way to solve this easily.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Underline mine. It says to change 2 votes it requires another 2 charges i.e. totally 3 charges. Changing a third vote requires yet another 3 charges i.e. 6 charges. You can charge only during the day. They would have around 3 charges (as they were inactive in D1), just enough to change 2 votes. 

Could they not have merely pretended to be inactive D1?  And you're sure they can only store during the day?  That would make sense, although it's not immediately obvious from the role description.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It's not so much as an assumption rather than a conclusion drawn by the process of elimination. There is no one more likely to be Connector than Walin. Everyone else has had their vote counted in majority of the cycles. 

Yes, but you're assuming there is a Connector, that the Connector is an Elim, and that Walin has a reason for not voting besides being inactive.  I still don't think the Elims would have a Rioter and a connector.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Fair warning. I have it on good authority that Mist is not someone you can kill in a single cycle. 

Thug?  Pretty sure that's the only one that survives the lynch.  How do you know?

If needed, we could finish them off in a later cycle.  That would take some resource expenditure, though, so I guess I'd have to be pretty confident that Mist is an Elim... assuming you're correct, it seems unlikely that the Elims would have a Thug unless they only have 5 players.  Actually, having a Thug might be the perfect way to balance a 5 player team, which keeps the standard distribution while not upsetting balance.  Interesting.

I'm going to leave my vote on Mist for now.  There's a lot of weird stuff flying around, a lot of reveals happening.  It makes me more suspicious of everyone except Ash, who oddly seems less suspicious now than before.  Kinda confused what's going on with Pyro, and I don't know why TJ is discouraging me from killing Mist.  If Mist flips Elim it would make me think TJ is also an Elim.

Good cycle for setting up analysis in later cycles.  Bad cycle for knowing what I should do right now.    I think I'll wait it out for a bit.

[|TJ|]

38 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Could they not have merely pretended to be inactive D1?  And you're sure they can only store during the day?  That would make sense, although it's not immediately obvious from the role description.

They could have. They'd still have only 4 charges though. Yeah, they can only store during the day. It's in the rules doc. 

39 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Yes, but you're assuming there is a Connector, that the Connector is an Elim, and that Walin has a reason for not voting besides being inactive.  I still don't think the Elims would have a Rioter and a connector.

Yes, but I'm not assuming they are elim just because they are Connector. There are other reasons I stated above like role-claiming, offering to clear Ventyl etc. 

41 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I'm going to leave my vote on Mist for now.  There's a lot of weird stuff flying around, a lot of reveals happening.  It makes me more suspicious of everyone except Ash, who oddly seems less suspicious now than before.  Kinda confused what's going on with Pyro, and I don't know why TJ is discouraging me from killing Mist.  If Mist flips Elim it would make me think TJ is also an Elim.

Huh, what? I just revealed their role. Why would I do that if I was an elim? I'd be happy for the villagers to waste a cycle lynching a player with double-life if I was an elim. I wasn't discouraging you from killing Mist. I was merely asking if we should go for an immediate kill or are we in a comfortable situation to follow a hunch on a player with double-life. I'm wary because of Elandera's statement from earlier when she said she had been lynched just because she was a Thug when she was a villager. There's also a chance that there is a Thug of each alignment and I'm just worried we might end up wasting 2 cycles to end up killing the villager. I also voted for Mist alongside you last cycle. If I was an elim, then I would've known her role then and would have discouraged you from voting last cycle itself. I'm only telling now because I did not know till recently. As for how I know, would it be too much to ask you to trust me? (yes I know it would be too much  )

[The Young Pyromancer]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Before I possibly put myself on a kill-list by the Kandra or Elims, how well do you know the Coinshot kill went through? Pulsing isn't a Roleblock, I think it's a redirect, so if all your Archivist knows is that the Coinshot wasn't roleblocked then I don't know if that also means they weren't Pulsed. Plus it's still a 11/13 chance (or however many players there are minus two) that I mistakenly incriminate someone and there was something else weird going on.

Knowing who the Coinshot is would help, but also probably be too risky for such a valuable role. Even in PM, that would be perfect Elim!Windwhisperer bait.

You not speaking is more likely to put you on a kill list, so your info dies with you. Not speaking here makes no logical sense, and only benefits elims/Kandra. This is making me highly suspicious right now. The only motive I could see you having to keep this information secret is if you're an elim pulser who posted stuff in-thread, then got told to not reveal the info by your teammates.

I'll withold my vote for now, but you've flipped my suspicions on you. Other analysis has cast you in a village light, So I'll wait to see other's input, but this right here is really weird to me. You claim to not want to be killed, whereas you're FAR more likely to be killed here as long as you keep the information secret. Your actions only make sense as an elim.

Also, that's not how math works. It's not an 1/13 chance that you're wrong, it's a 4/13 (assuming 3 elims left, which I think[?] is the consensus number) that even IF you're wrong, the person you pick is an elim/the Kandra ANYWAYS.

My info is less 'the Coinshot wasn't roleblocked' and more 'X was targeted by the Coinshot'. Removed identities here because it's not my info to give.

@Lahilt, was that the right part? I think you might have skipped one.

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Could they not have merely pretended to be inactive D1?  And you're sure they can only store during the day?  That would make sense, although it's not immediately obvious from the role description

It says in roles when the user can store/tap after the description.

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Kinda confused what's going on with Pyro,

In what way?

[|TJ|]

46 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

You not speaking is more likely to put you on a kill list, so your info dies with you. Not speaking here makes no logical sense, and only benefits elims/Kandra. This is making me highly suspicious right now. The only motive I could see you having to keep this information secret is if you're an elim pulser who posted stuff in-thread, then got told to not reveal the info by your teammates.

I'll withold my vote for now, but you've flipped my suspicions on you. Other analysis has cast you in a village light, So I'll wait to see other's input, but this right here is really weird to me. You claim to not want to be killed, whereas you're FAR more likely to be killed here as long as you keep the information secret. Your actions only make sense as an elim.

So both of you are right in this. Ash, Pyro is right in saying if you did target the elim who submitted the kill, you are likely to be killed tonight and the information dies with you. Don't know why the elims would kill you if you already revealed the truth. Also, you don't have to worry about the kandra till N6.
Pyro, Ash is right to be wary of revealing a possible villager and casting our suspicion on them. Ash also has only your word to believe that Coinshot's kill went through, but since revealing that information is dangerous to you too, I'm leaning towards believing you.
People seem to forget there are only 11 players remaining, so there's a 7/11 chance Ash targeted a villager. I don't know why elim!Ash would target a fellow elim. That would not help the elims at all. So if Ash is indeed an elim, he would have targeted a villager or the kandra. If he did, then I see no reason why he shouldn't reveal it to the thread since it will not endanger any fellow elim. When the revealed player would flip village (or kandra) he'd have the perfect excuse by telling he was pressurized by other players in the thread. So I'm not exactly seeing elim!Ash, though the only reason why elim!Ash would not reveal his target is if his target was too villager-y to make us ask why he'd target them OR he is the Kandra and does not have his Pulser ability anymore and he's bluffing. 
So the only thing I can think of is maybe we could agree we wouldn't lynch the player Ash revealed till D6. Well Ash, it's your call but revealing it in-thread would be more safe than revealing via PM. 

I don't get why we're focusing on this particular scenario though. There are 8 other situations I discussed, and granted not all of them are equally probable, there are other cases like players with Steel Trap and double-tapping that could have been possible. 

I also find the kill on Elandera weird. Till now, the elims were content with killing inactive and semi-active players. That changed this cycle. I'll go back and check her posts to see if it was something she said. 

[Magestar]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

They could have. They'd still have only 4 charges though. Yeah, they can only store during the day. It's in the rules doc. 

Ah ok.  My bad.

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yes, but I'm not assuming they are elim just because they are Connector. There are other reasons I stated above like role-claiming, offering to clear Ventyl etc. 

That's fair.  I wouldn't necessarily be against lynching Walin, I guess.  I'm just not all that certain of their Elimness.

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Huh, what? I just revealed their role. Why would I do that if I was an elim? I'd be happy for the villagers to waste a cycle lynching a player with double-life if I was an elim. I wasn't discouraging you from killing Mist. I was merely asking if we should go for an immediate kill or are we in a comfortable situation to follow a hunch on a player with double-life. I'm wary because of Elandera's statement from earlier when she said she had been lynched just because she was a Thug when she was a villager. There's also a chance that there is a Thug of each alignment and I'm just worried we might end up wasting 2 cycles to end up killing the villager. I also voted for Mist alongside you last cycle. If I was an elim, then I would've known her role then and would have discouraged you from voting last cycle itself. I'm only telling now because I did not know till recently. As for how I know, would it be too much to ask you to trust me? (yes I know it would be too much  )

Woah.    If Mist isn't really a Thug then it kinda makes sense.  But you're right, I maybe took it too far.  I'm sorry, I'm super suspicious of everyone right now.  Maybe it's because I don't really feel like I have any leads, so I'm kinda grasping at straws.

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

In what way?

So, kinda along the lines of what TJ said, I feel like you're making a lot of assumptions about Ash.  You're assuming that he did in fact hit a kill role, when it's entirely possible that he hit someone random and the kill role just didn't do their stuff.  This possibility is extremely likely if the Kandra role went to someone random.   It's a little odd to me that you were so adamant about certain things, especially in your latest post, when I feel like it's already been explained in-thread that there's a lot of uncertainty here.

I also don't really understand why people are sharing this info with you and TJ.    I mean, I feel like you're kinda village, but I don't have this info and it's surprising to me that other people have it.  I kinda forgot PMs existed.

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I also find the kill on Elandera weird. Till now, the elims were content with killing inactive and semi-active players. That changed this cycle. I'll go back and check her posts to see if it was something she said. 

It may be that the player who was encouraging that style of killing has died, or that the Elims became more desperate upon losing an additional member.  Elandera did kinda push the Ventyl lynch.  Idk.

[|TJ|]

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Woah.    If Mist isn't really a Thug then it kinda makes sense.  But you're right, I maybe took it too far.  I'm sorry, I'm super suspicious of everyone right now.  Maybe it's because I don't really feel like I have any leads, so I'm kinda grasping at straws.

Hey, I'm the last person to blame a (possible) villager for being super suspicious. In my eyes, you can never be too suspicious.  I'm glad you're willing to rethink when given a suitable explanation. And it's my job to provide one so the discussion doesn't stray towards a mislynch and give the elims a reason to derail the thread.

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

It may be that the player who was encouraging that style of killing has died, or that the Elims became more desperate upon losing an additional member.  Elandera did kinda push the Ventyl lynch.  Idk.

Found something interesting. 

Quote

After a brief skim of Ventyl's posts (I weeded out pure RP and irrelevant posts made mostly during D1 when most posts was a thing), I have a few more things to say. Emi and Walin may be worth a coinshot kill/lynch.

 

[Ashbringer]

I'm getting very weirded out by all of this. Both TJ and Pyro seem to know a great deal of convinient information, and a chain of Pyro to Archivist (possibly through another player) leaves too much room for deception for my liking, and with the Coinshot's identity at stake then I'd rather keep my mouth shut. I need to get some analysis done.

It's also going to be really hard to judge whether there is a missing kill, because my guess is that someone has the lerasium now, which means that the Elims may have an extra Coinshot or defensive role like Slider.

 

In the meantime, I think there are 2-3 Elims left. If Elandera got killed for her suspicions, then Emi and Walin could be more suspects, or it could be a ruse.

As for Mist being a Thug, what exactly does that change? Village or Elim, being a Thug is really only potent when people don't know you're a Thug (as far as I can tell). It would take two lynches to kill Mist, but if she's really suspect by enough people than lynching her once would at least make her vulnerable to an emergency Coinshot-ing. Being a Thug is NAI, but if she's really an Elim suspect then waiting to lynch her could put us in danger later. We shouldn't lynch her for being a Thug, but it also shouldn't be the only reason to stop lynching a suspect.

[The Young Pyromancer]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

because my guess is that someone has the lerasium now,

Why would you think that?

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

So, kinda along the lines of what TJ said, I feel like you're making a lot of assumptions about Ash.  You're assuming that he did in fact hit a kill role, when it's entirely possible that he hit someone random and the kill role just didn't do their stuff.

My point is even if he didn't there's no reason not to share. Just because he blocked someone doesn't mean they are necessarily going to be lynched. It's definitely not proof of a kill role, but it's something that can certainly swing a close decision, or provide someone to look into.