Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Oh. Well, again, that seems like a rather risky ploy to go for during the second cycle of them game, pulling 2 lynch swings with the same set of people.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

That's assuming the elims were involved in the lynch swing last cycle.

Hmm...

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Incidentally, I don't see a reason for the Experience train, I do see a similar crowd lynching Experience as who lynched Coda, and it feels like another mislynch. I wouldn't say I'm very great at this game but I'd be really, really, really surprised if Experience flipped elim, the way things are going right now. They are either innocent or they will survive the lynch, and the latter isn't particularly likely.

To my knowledge, Araris is the only one who was part of both votes. I was adamantly against the Coda lynch. 

Also, I'm adamantly against a Contribution Crusader lynch. If the elims are going to pick off the inactives, we need information from somewhere. We won't get that by lynching people who've posted so little. 

If nothing else from the Experience lynch, we will learn a lot. If he's elim, we have a whole herd of people who've defended him. If he's village, we have a few who seem to want him lynched for something. We have interactions to bolster future reads.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

(bold mine). How do you mean?

Also, why is is bad if the same set of people are willing to lynch Exp as the ones that voted Coda? If said group is elim, then they are being super obvious and we could find out by lynching one of them. If they are village, then they are just making an honest attempt at a lynch, unlike everyone else who is content to not vote or to vote on a non-target and then forgo further engagement with the lynch.

What Pyro said. Everyone's fine with lynching Experience and discussion has died. Ergo, what are the chances that Experience is part of a team that has a vested interest in protecting them? Not high. In order to deny the elims the ability to exploit "lack of defense = innocence" as a gambit, I'd prefer if Experience stayed in the running as a lynch candidate, but the lack of any serious opposition is still a serious problem, no?

I'm not saying said group is elim, I'm saying said group is incorrect.

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Oh. Well, again, that seems like a rather risky ploy to go for during the second cycle of them game, pulling 2 lynch swings with the same set of people.

What? What same set of people would be pulling lynch swings? I don't get it.

Are you saying the group voting for Experience would not pull 2 lynch swings? Because to my knowledge you guys haven't even pulled even a single lynch swing yet 

It sounds like you're suggesting here that the elims would want to avoid swinging the vote off of one of their own players for second time in a row. Which, is not something a villager would know anything about. How would you know there was a first time?

You were literally my top trust read, but I'm sorry that was just way the heck to suspicious to ignore. Araris.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Faleast woke up.

That was a bit suprising for him. For one thing, with all the shouting going on last night and the coffee being distributed, he didn’t actually remember falling asleep last night. He must have slept through most of the day. For another thing, there had been a lot of angry faces staring at him last night, and Faleast had been fairly certain that once he fell asleep he might never awaken again.

Ah well. He was a lot older than he tended to look; old enough that dying in his sleep was a possibility in any circumstance, let alone this one. If a bullet or coin didn’t get him in the back, this whole predicament might make his heart fail. Best to make the most of whatever time he had left.

Faleast surveyed the room. It was a bit different than he’d remembered. In fact, he was in a different place than he’d remembered - either someone moved his sleeping form in the middle of the morning, or he’d been sleepwalking again. Besides that, there was a kitten lounging on one of the tables, and the discussion seemed quite different than he’d seen yesterday. Today it was more analytical, civilized. And yet, the anger from before was still palpable in the air, just not as present in the facial expressions.

Faleast knew who his suspects were. He’d shared them plenty, and knew that there was a good chance he was either right or wrong. It was so hard to tell these days who was telling the truth.

Well, I’m telling the truth, as far as I can see it. But I don’t think anyone will believe me while I still live and can lie.

Faleast’s eyes narrowed as he viewed the crowd of people. But by Harmony, I’ll try my best.

———

And now for some Experience analysis. Most of this has probably been said by others, but here’s what I see.

XP was the first person to vote on Hatz, way before Coda was even in danger. XP then switched his vote to Coda, stating that Coda “must” be an Elim because Araris suggested XP and Coda were on seperate teams. Araris clarified he meant that he didn’t think that XP and Coda were both Elims, which XP aknowledged but didn’t change his vote.

XP also made a lot of different posts on C1, but very little real analysis on posts. Just small posts competing with Pyro for most posts and some RP.

Analysis: suspicious behavior, but I don’t know if Elim-suspicious or weird-suspicious. I can support a lynch, but again there are people I’m more suspicious of.

Speaking of such, I’d like to point out that Pyro took the first opportunity to take his vote off Karnage with no real reasoning. Don’t know if that’s indicative but it’s there.

Edit: Which swing group is this refering to? The Karnage>Hatz swing was Pyro, Ash, Drake, and then Mist sorta. That’s not the same group voting for Experience now - Elandera also voted for XP last round, while Araris and Ventyl voted for Coda.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Pyro took the first opportunity to take his vote off Karnage with no real reasoning. Don’t know if that’s indicative but it’s there.

I took it off because Drake asked me to.

Also, I'm not your top trust read drake?

[Ashbringer he/him]

In PM, I assume. Since I don’t see anything in here to suggest so.

@DrakeMarshall, you have a reason you don’t want Karnage to die? (Apologies if you’ve said it somewhere, I’ve been jumping inbetween different tabs to look for clues all day.... )

Edited June 8, 2020 by Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

In PM, I assume. Since I don’t see anything in here to suggest so.

Nope. It's in-thread. I voted Karnage, and Drake said he'd rather pick someone else.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

21 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

What Pyro said. Everyone's fine with lynching Experience and discussion has died. Ergo, what are the chances that Experience is part of a team that has a vested interest in protecting them? Not high. In order to deny the elims the ability to exploit "lack of defense = innocence" as a gambit, I'd prefer if Experience stayed in the running as a lynch candidate, but the lack of any serious opposition is still a serious problem, no?

Well, part of the problem seems too be that I seem to be dictating who we lynch. Both the lynch on Coda and the current lynch on Experience have been largely prompted by things I've posted (this is why I have Pyro as a slight village read, since he set up the lynch swing D1, and Coda was village). I can't really set up opposing lynch trains by myself, and everyone (or almost everyone? I haven't checked the count since Striker posted it) not voting Exp seems content to waste their vote on a target with no other votes, while not trying very hard to convince others to join them. 

21 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

It sounds like you're suggesting here that the elims would want to avoid swinging the vote off of one of their own players for second time in a row. Which, is not something a villager would know anything about. How would you know there was a first time?

I can't be suggesting that because Coda flipped village. Also, I thought that your worry of Elim!Exp not getting lynch was based on the swing last cycle, and thus that you thought the same set of people involved then would do it now (or at least that they might be involved). 

The point is, your worry of Elim!Exp not getting lynched seems very unfounded to me, because it would be a major risk to the elim team very early in the game, more so because of the swing the previous cycle and my drawing attention to the fact here.

I think it's also a bad assumption that since X group of villagers mislynched last cycle, X group will mislynch again this cycle.

It seems like village!Drake would propose an alternate lynch option rather than defending Exp, who I think we have a legitimate reason to suspect. I don't think very many people find me that suspicious, despite the smattering of votes that have been moving on and off me. Of the people on your last suspicion list, I'd be most willing to vote on Kynedath, followed by Magestar (although he's been relatively active, so I'd prefer Kynedath).

Edit: I suppose this conversation has been good for my wallet, since my usual posts are more in the 50-100 word length, so thanks!

Edited June 8, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I'm not sure why people are sus of Kynedath. XP is for what, changing their playstyle? Looking for people that drove the Coda lynch would be better IMO.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I don't know what Exp's playstyle is, so I'm certainly not voting on them for that. Also, why would people who voted on Coda be suspicious? I stand by my vote.

Kynedath has been low active, and was one of the people to comment on the 3 votes on Mist C1, which I think an elim would be more likely to do. I'm not sure why Drake is suspicious of Kynedath.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don't know what Exp's playstyle is, so I'm certainly not voting on them for that.

Right, that was coda. Nvm.

[Experience he/him]

Well, it looks like I'm going to die. Right now, ventyl and lahilt are seeming kind of susicious to me. I'm going to place my vote on Ventyl, though it's probably not going to help with anything. I still don't have that analysis, and for that I really am sorry. On another note, I'm pretty sure that xino has the most coins right now, though someone else could have gotten more if they were involved with the coda lynch and already have a lot of money. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, Experience said:

Well, it looks like I'm going to die. Right now, ventyl and lahilt are seeming kind of susicious to me. I'm going to place my vote on Ventyl, though it's probably not going to help with anything. I still don't have that analysis, and for that I really am sorry. On another note, I'm pretty sure that xino has the most coins right now, though someone else could have gotten more if they were involved with the coda lynch and already have a lot of money. 

There are still over 2 hours left in the cycle. That should be enough time to do some analysis, assuming you aren't too busy IRL. Even if it doesn't keep you alive, it could help the rest of us out (or it could all be lies and elim dastardlyness). I don't think anyone could have had cash before the start of the game, and I didn't get any extra from Coda.

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

There are still over 2 hours left in the cycle. That should be enough time to do some analysis, assuming you aren't too busy IRL. Even if it doesn't keep you alive, it could help the rest of us out (or it could all be lies and elim dastardlyness). I don't think anyone could have had cash before the start of the game, and I didn't get any extra from Coda.

Yes, I guess I can try, though work might not let me. I was talking about money earned from the first cycle. 

[Magestar he/him]

I can't leave the game for more than an hour without crap going down.   

4 hours ago, Emi said:

As I took a look on the earlier posts, I would vote on Experience. He seems quite suspicious according to Magestars comment on a previous page.

What?  Where did I say that Experience was suspicious?  I'm pretty sure the most I've said is that they're only as suspicious as anyone else.

I'm don't understand the Experience lynch.  I'm not against it, as I've said previously, but it's existence fills me with paranoia.  It moves too quickly, and without enough backing.  The most I've seen from anyone against Experience is that they're maybe avoiding posting suspicions or reads, and a few tone or gut things.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm going to try something a little different. @DrakeMarshall, why do you think I'm Village? On your list, besides yourself, I'm the only person that you have as Village instead of "slightly Village", which somehow I don't know if I warrant.

I'll take a look at Experience, and probably Pyro/Drake's tones in an attempt to read someone. Not voting on Walin until someone else does, because following the Pyro vote is how I got us into this mess in the first place. Although Pyro did take the first opprotunity to take his vote off Karnage... I agree a different vote is probably better.

Kind of an odd question here.  Doesn't seem particularly Elim behavior, but I'm confused as to why you're asking why someone has a Village read on you.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I think I just missed this, because for the most part I have been rather odd in different ways, but I may as well say it now. I never voted for Araris, or even mentioned them (I think).

That post was directed at Drake lol.

41 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, part of the problem seems too be that I seem to be dictating who we lynch. Both the lynch on Coda and the current lynch on Experience have been largely prompted by things I've posted (this is why I have Pyro as a slight village read, since he set up the lynch swing D1, and Coda was village). I can't really set up opposing lynch trains by myself, and everyone (or almost everyone? I haven't checked the count since Striker posted it) not voting Exp seems content to waste their vote on a target with no other votes, while not trying very hard to convince others to join them. 

Jeez lol.  I'm pretty sure I was the one who started the Coda lynch, and at least one of the votes on Exp claimed they were getting their reasoning for me... a flawed argument, to be fair, but there it is.  Several of the people voting on Exp now gave their own reasoning for it.  I wouldn't say you're dictating the lynch.  

Ashbringer.  That's obviously not going anywhere.  Could someone get me a vote tally?

I could put my vote back on Araris, but I'm no longer terribly suspicious of them.

This post is kind of all over the place because that's kind of how I feel right now.  I'm not really sure what's going on with the lynch.  People's reasons for voting are confusing me.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Magestar
grammar i guess

[Mat he/him]

Vote tally, I believe:

• Experience (5) - Elandera, Lahilt, Ventyl, Araris, Experience 
• Araris Valerian (2) - Xinoehp, Drake 
• Karnage (1) - Ashbringer 
• Emi (1) - Karnage 
• DrakeMarshall (1) - TJ 
• Walin (1): Pyro 
• Ventyl (1): Experience 

I doubt I'll end up voting, as it wouldn't add anything to the lynch either way, with not enough momentum to slow down or speed up the lynch right now with one vote.

[Experience he/him]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

Vote tally, I believe:

• Experience (5) - Elandera, Lahilt, Ventyl, Araris, Experience 
• Araris Valerian (2) - Xinoehp, Drake 
• Karnage (1) - Ashbringer 
• Emi (1) - Karnage 
• DrakeMarshall (1) - TJ 
• Walin (1): Pyro 
• Ventyl (1): Experience 

I doubt I'll end up voting, as it wouldn't add anything to the lynch either way, with not enough momentum to slow down or speed up the lynch right now with one vote.

Hmm. For some reason I thought that ventyl had a vote on them already. Must have missed that. Well, I don't want to vote on araris, even to survive because they are one of my village leans. Ventyl I'm going to place my vote on emi, because they seem to have no reason at all to have vote on me, and they claimed that they used magestars reasoning against me which I believe is non-existant. 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Experience said:

Hmm. For some reason I thought that ventyl had a vote on them already. Must have missed that. Well, I don't want to vote on araris, even to survive because they are one of my village leans. Ventyl I'm going to place my vote on emi, because they seem to have no reason at all to have vote on me, and they claimed that they used magestars reasoning against me which I believe is non-existant. 

Ah, I noticed I have you voting on yourself. I'll change that....

Edit: Vote tally for real: @Magestar

• Experience (4) - Elandera, Lahilt, Ventyl, Araris
• Araris Valerian (2) - Xinoehp, Drake 
• Karnage (1) - Ashbringer 
• Emi (2) - Karnage, Experience 
• DrakeMarshall (1) - TJ 
• Walin (1): Pyro 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

32 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I took it off because Drake asked me to.

Also, I'm not your top trust read drake?

I mean, you might be now.

24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

In PM, I assume. Since I don’t see anything in here to suggest so.

@DrakeMarshall, you have a reason you don’t want Karnage to die? (Apologies if you’ve said it somewhere, I’ve been jumping inbetween different tabs to look for clues all day.... )

Not really.

I feel like I've repeated myself about this a lot, but I don't like targeting people more often than necessary across multiple games, and I recently finished leading a mislynch on Karnage in a different game that is now over. That's why I wanted to pick somebody else on D1. Because D1 lynches are close to random anyway. Does that make sense?

But if there's an actual reason to kill Karnage I'm fine with killing them. And in any case I'm not particularly invested in telling anyone else not to kill Karnage. I think they'd be a better lynch than Experience.

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, part of the problem seems too be that I seem to be dictating who we lynch. Both the lynch on Coda and the current lynch on Experience have been largely prompted by things I've posted (this is why I have Pyro as a slight village read, since he set up the lynch swing D1, and Coda was village). I can't really set up opposing lynch trains by myself, and everyone (or almost everyone? I haven't checked the count since Striker posted it) not voting Exp seems content to waste their vote on a target with no other votes, while not trying very hard to convince others to join them. 

Yeah I'm not really trying to blame you for the fact that a group of people are lynching Experience. Sorry if it seemed that way. I get that your own vote is the only one you are responsible for.

Although I resent the implication that I am not trying hard to create a different lynch 

Quote

I can't be suggesting that because Coda flipped village. Also, I thought that your worry of Elim!Exp not getting lynch was based on the swing last cycle, and thus that you thought the same set of people involved then would do it now (or at least that they might be involved). 

The point is, your worry of Elim!Exp not getting lynched seems very unfounded to me, because it would be a major risk to the elim team very early in the game, more so because of the swing the previous cycle and my drawing attention to the fact here.

I think it's also a bad assumption that since X group of villagers mislynched last cycle, X group will mislynch again this cycle.

It seems like village!Drake would propose an alternate lynch option rather than defending Exp, who I think we have a legitimate reason to suspect. I don't think very many people find me that suspicious, despite the smattering of votes that have been moving on and off me. Of the people on your last suspicion list, I'd be most willing to vote on Kynedath, followed by Magestar (although he's been relatively active, so I'd prefer Kynedath).

Edit: I suppose this conversation has been good for my wallet, since my usual posts are more in the 50-100 word length, so thanks!

Uh. Coda didn't really have the lynch swung off of them. At least, not successfully.

Why would I be worried about the votes swinging off of Experience? Swinging the votes off of Experience is largely what I want to happen, which is the part you wanted me to provide reasoning for in the first place. And in any case you haven't ostensibly been involved in any swinging of the votes, this cycle or last, so why would you be concerned by that?

I don't get it.

I'm absolutely not saying that because X group mislynched last cycle, X group will mislynch again this cycle. There's little or no causal connection there, but I am observing that I think X group is about to create a second mislynch in a row, which I'm not particularly down with. The way things are going we will see in retrospect whether it is indeed a mislynch or not, but you already know my prediction.

What is the legitimate reason to suspect Exp?

Your wallet is welcome 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

13 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Jeez lol.  I'm pretty sure I was the one who started the Coda lynch, and at least one of the votes on Exp claimed they were getting their reasoning for me... a flawed argument, to be fair, but there it is.  Several of the people voting on Exp now gave their own reasoning for it.  I wouldn't say you're dictating the lynch.  

Apologies, that came out wrong. It would have been better to say that I've been backing the major lynch targets both cycles, and that it seems that some people have voted based on my posts rather than anything Coda/Experience have actually done. 

Edit: Wow, ninja'd by several posts. @DrakeMarshall, I think I may have managed to misunderstand most of what you said. That being said, do you honestly think that I am the best lynch option for this cycle, or that there are even enough people willing to vote on me to lynch me? If so, then we are cool (except for the part where you want to lynch me ). 

Exp voted on Joe, mentioned the votes on Mist, and was part of the post war C1. These are all things that I find mildly suspicious. However, I am uncomfortable with the amount of unoriginal reasoning behind most of the votes this cycle. I'll switch from Exp to Kynedath, although if Drake and/or anyone else doesn't follow, I might have to move my vote elsewhere.

I'm not liking the votes on Emi or Walin, I disagree with the vote on Karnage, and wish that @xinoehp512 could pop in and say some more stuff.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I mean, at least Walin/Hatz/TGK have been COMPLETELY inactive. Going after Kynedath doesn't make sense at all here. Why do you say you'd prefer Kynedath to Walin @Araris Valerian?

[Experience he/him]

Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

I mean, at least Walin/Hatz/TGK have been COMPLETELY inactive. Going after Kynedath doesn't make sense at all here. Why do you say you'd prefer Kynedath to Walin @Araris Valerian?

I think that it's probably because lynch an inactive gives us absolutely no information whatsoever. Even if kynedath ends up village it would give us more info then from an inactive.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Experience said:

I think that it's probably because lynch an inactive gives us absolutely no information whatsoever. Even if kynedath ends up village it would give us more info then from an inactive.

This. Supposing one or more of Walin/Hatz/TGK are elims. Why bother killing them? If we took out all the other elims, and those players are still inactive, either Striker would call the game there, or we'd notice the lack of submitted elim kills and take them out ourselves. @Walin, @ILuvHats, @The_God_King, I'm not sure if you've been pinged this cycle, but here is a friendly Contribution Crusade reminder.

I have something of a gut read on Kynedath, and am also trying to find common ground with Drake.

[Magestar he/him]

The 17th shard ate the first version of this post.  >.>  Take two, I guess.  Sorry if it's messy but I kinda lost patience lol.

36 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Ah, I noticed I have you voting on yourself. I'll change that....

Edit: Vote tally for real: @Magestar

• Experience (4) - Elandera, Lahilt, Ventyl, Araris
• Araris Valerian (2) - Xinoehp, Drake 
• Karnage (1) - Ashbringer 
• Emi (2) - Karnage, Experience 
• DrakeMarshall (1) - TJ 
• Walin (1): Pyro 

This isn't quite right either, IIRC.  I believe Emi is voting on Exp.  You keep ninja'ing my corrections.   

Also, not voting is not a good idea.  As much as I might have some suspicions of Drake, they're right about one thing; an uncontested lynch isn't super great.  If no one is against it, than it means the Elims aren't losing anything from it.  I'd suggest picking someone who already has a vote on them and giving it a shot.  That would at least be a start. 

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Apologies, that came out wrong. It would have been better to say that I've been backing the major lynch targets both cycles, and that it seems that some people have voted based on my posts rather than anything Coda/Experience have actually done.

Don't worry about it.  I wouldn't actually disagree with this.  I feel like so far a lot of the lynch discussion has come with relatively little backing.

I personally am gonna put a vote on Drake.  I went through all of their posts earlier, and I picked up a few suspicions.  Here's some quick reasoning:

1. They made a few posts early in the game that seemed rather Elim-leaning.  Specifically this one:

Quote

Letting the elims choose who dies isn't the worst thing, I don't think.

At least you forced the elims to do something.

In my experience, the worst outcome is when the elims don't have to do anything at all, because the lynch is between 2 villagers. Doesn't leave the village with much info, and without other sources of info people tend to look for somebody to blame for the mislynch, which can be a bad cycle to start.

Which bothered me a little bit.  I strongly disagree with the idea that it's ok to let the Elims decide the lynch, especially in the early cycles, where the lynch is most likely to be between 2 villagers.  Even in the later cycles, it's kind of iffy.  It gives the Elims more control than I'm comfortable with.  This post just read as off to me.  There were others, but this was the big one.

2.  Odd voting patterns.  There was a lot of switching back and forth in the first cycle, especially towards the end.  There's some more I could say about this, but it's kind of complicated and iffy.  Suffice it to say, I saw some patterns in their voting that matched up with what I'd expect if the Elim team looks like I think it does.

3.  Good info.  Lynching Drake will give us something to go off of next cycle, regardless of which way they flip.  They've interacted with enough people and followed enough votes that lynching them will help us get better reads on other players.  I almost regret trying to get them lynched because of how active they are... I feel similarly about Araris, but the defining differences are that I actually have some suspicions of Drake right now, and that Drake has interacted with the lynch and with other players a little more heavily than Araris has.

There's this stuff, plus I agree with some of the stuff TJ said earlier about Drake.  A lot of my reasoning for voting on them is such that "if drake is Elim, then this that and the other thing" and "if drake is not Elim, than probably not this or that." and it's not all stuff I necessarily want to dive into before knowing Drake's alignment.

Ergh.  I explained this better in the first edition of this post, but I'd kind of been writing it as I trolled through the thread, and I don't feel up to doing that again.  I've already been ninja'd a half dozen or so times while making this post.  >.>  I think I also said some things about the Exp lynch, but I'm forgetting what they were.  Basically, I'm not seeing enough competition for it.  It's too easy, and I'd like to give it some competition.

@Matrim's_Dice, if you feel like your vote doesn't matter, drop a vote on Drake for me.  You don't have to worry about it too much cause I'm suggesting it, and your vote gets to matter.  Plus it brings that lynch closer to the Exp lynch.  Win-win.   

Blech.  I'm posted out right now.  I might be back in a little bit.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Magestar