Long Game 65: Dancing through Life

[Elkanah]

10 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

• Elkanah has been low active, but has at least posted more game relevant content than many of the other low actives. Feeling neutral about them presently.

Ouch! I had the second most posts to straw this game up until last cycle. It was fifty fifty analyses and role play as well. I will give you I disappeared for forty eight hours, but I am back and ready to give you things to analyze... In the morning. I should have been in bed an hour ago. 

Congrats to everyone who was elevated! My condolences Elandera. I believe in you, though. You have got next turn in the bag for elevations. I am really interested to know which field is so competitive, but it is probably better not to ask.

Congrats Walin. Tell us, what is the secret to your meteoric success. Also, are you a skindancer? Also also, I vote you elevate Elandera given the chance. That's just a thought, though.

[Elandera]

Congrats Walin! If anyone has protection, it wouldn't hurt to use it to keep him alive. At least until we determine he is not village. Skindancers will likely make Masters a main target.

Time for another chunk of analysis. At least I made it past the first term. Now on to Term Two! 

But first! @TheMightyLopen

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Well Bard has been caught lying 2 Months in a row(assuming Xino is telling the truth, but it would seem very risky for them to be lying about this), so I think the whole WGG thing doesn't have as much impact.

Did I miss something? Where did we learn Bard was caught lying twice? I thought Xino only revealed he lied term 2.2?

@Experience

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Once I asked this, some people said it would probably be most beneficial for the students if we don't all say what fields we study in, which is why I went to saying we probably shouldn't.

The noble skindancer(s) have the most money of all the skindancers, and can devote their coin to getting things like assassins. If we take them out sooner, it's better for us. The problem is that the student nobles are the most helpful for us, for the same reasons as above, so we don't want to just be expelling nobles left and right. Hopefully that makes more sense?

That makes sense. There hadn't been a ton of discussion about it, which is why I didn't put anything down about considering it obvious elim. It was just a little odd, but not unreasonable.

And yes, that explanation does make a lot more sense.

@Burnt Spaghetti

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Oh thats interesting. Makes me kinda want to analyse past vote counts now. If someones more motivated or has already done it, having every vote count ever put into a post comparing them, would be interesting to see things like everyone who the insane people voted for, and the list of who voted on the now insane people

I would love to, but I'm having a difficult enough time to get through analysis. I may if I live long enough and get up to the current month.  

Alright, really on to term 2.

@xinoehp512

Spoiler

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Does Fae Lore activate for RP actions? What about Rhetoric & Logic actions, or Linguistic actions, or Sympathy actions? What about the other kind of actions- is there a differentiation between what activates Fae Lore and what doesn't, or do just all actions work?

...

Does anyone else think that Naming is a rather ridiculously risky field to go into?

I get a fishing vibe from this post (and it's not just because it was all questions  ). The first chunk is odd, though I can't quite put my finger on why. It doesn't seem like a villager question, I think.

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Fae Lore: Your fellow students may laugh at your studies, but they’ve come in awfully handy lately. While they’re all carrying around iron to protect themselves from the Skindancers, you know holly is the way to go. If you target a Skindancer with an action,  their actions are cancelled.

Fae Lore isn't a passive ability and cancels a Skindancer's actions (not necessary Skindancer Action). The question of wondering about it affecting field actions seems more like an elim trying to figure out if they can use other actions without being caught. 

On the other hand, that is the kind of question I'd expect to stay in the doc, not the thread. Still makes me suspicious.

Yes, I recognize I may be tunneling on Xino. I really need Bard to die before I can let go of my paranoid suspicion.

@Burnt Spaghetti

Spoiler

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In theory we should start seeing vote worthy things happening soon. Attacks are starting to have chances of being defended against, abilities are going to be coming into play. Whoever was elevated in naming and physicking will be able to self protect, and any noble who went to the imre last cycle would have been capable of at least buying a bloodless for protection. Plus theres chances for roleblocks and redirects and all sorts of shenanigans starting up which can be telling. I'm very curious to see what goes down from this point on.

Interesting this was brought up the cycle before Bard's suspected WGG. Not inherently suspicious, but definitely curious (again). Could be an elim putting in the mindset that defense was probable in hopes of people accepting Bard's WGG more willingly.

And that's it for now. There was a lot of debate at the end of the turn about focused voting or not. It's still my opinion a lot of that was NAI, as both sides would have reasons to be on either side of the argument, as would arguing against a late-cycle change in how to regard the voting pattern. 

29 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

So interestlingly, Elendera is the only sane player to have not been elevated, now that Devotary, CadCom and Fura got elevations.

6 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Congrats to everyone who was elevated! My condolences Elandera. I believe in you, though. You have got next turn in the bag for elevations. I am really interested to know which field is so competitive, but it is probably better not to ask.

It's not really a matter of competitive field, and more a matter of my idiocy.  I misunderstood Imre rules and ended up taking an unintentional sabbatical for a turn. I also wasn't in the Gray Man, so I was left with basically no options last turn, as I wasn't attending the University either.

[TheMightyLopen]

19 minutes ago, Elandera said:

 

But first! @TheMightyLopen

Did I miss something? Where did we learn Bard was caught lying twice? I thought Xino only revealed he lied term 2.2?

Xino posted about it last Month.

Ok, that was a crazy end of Cycle. >> I'm gonna go play some D&D right now, but if I'm not too tired afterwards, I'll try and look over what actually happened and give my thoughts. Surprised no one actually got expelled. And Kynedath didn't even get brought on the Horns? Not sure how that's even possible.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

 

@xinoehp512

  Reveal hidden contents

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Does Fae Lore activate for RP actions? What about Rhetoric & Logic actions, or Linguistic actions, or Sympathy actions? What about the other kind of actions- is there a differentiation between what activates Fae Lore and what doesn't, or do just all actions work?

...

Does anyone else think that Naming is a rather ridiculously risky field to go into?

I get a fishing vibe from this post (and it's not just because it was all questions  ). The first chunk is odd, though I can't quite put my finger on why. It doesn't seem like a villager question, I think.

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Fae Lore: Your fellow students may laugh at your studies, but they’ve come in awfully handy lately. While they’re all carrying around iron to protect themselves from the Skindancers, you know holly is the way to go. If you target a Skindancer with an action,  their actions are cancelled.

Fae Lore isn't a passive ability and cancels a Skindancer's actions (not necessary Skindancer Action). The question of wondering about it affecting field actions seems more like an elim trying to figure out if they can use other actions without being caught. 

On the other hand, that is the kind of question I'd expect to stay in the doc, not the thread. Still makes me suspicious.

Yes, I recognize I may be tunneling on Xino. I really need Bard to die before I can let go of my paranoid suspicion.

Oh no, Elandera. Now you have me paranoid. - _ -

Like, seriously, you're right. While I don't see the fishing aspect of Xino's post, that question really isn't villager-y. Now, being Xino, I still have my doubts on how AI it is, but it's definitely sus.

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Does Fae Lore activate for RP actions? What about Rhetoric & Logic...

So, if this question was either a joke or the last question in the list (like an afterthought), I'd absolutely write it off as NAI. But with it coming first, it makes it seem to me that this is the answer Xino cares most about, and him being a heavy RPer, elim!Xino would absolutely have this question.

That being said, now I'm thinking about it, with Xino being a heavy RPer, he still might consider this for 1 of two reasons:

1. He might consider RPing with an elim, and thinking both him and the elim might be putting in RP actions, he asks this question as the RB might get in the way of RP.
2. He might have been considering, if RP actions had an effect on things (like showing up in the writup or PM changes), we might be able to catch out an elim on an RP action. This possibility alone probably makes it a worthwhile question for a villager, actually.

So basically you've put me on the fence for Xino, but I have liked him most of this game, despite not really analyzing him.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

It's not really a matter of competitive field, and more a matter of my idiocy.  I misunderstood Imre rules and ended up taking an unintentional sabbatical for a turn. I also wasn't in the Gray Man, so I was left with basically no options last turn, as I wasn't attending the University either.

That sucks, but explains a lot. Lol

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Congrats to everyone who was elevated! My condolences Elandera. I believe in you, though. You have got next turn in the bag for elevations. I am really interested to know which field is so competitive, but it is probably better not to ask.

Correction: which fields. As all three of us were elevated in 1 turn, we all have to be in different fields. Now... that gives the three of us more info on this than the rest of you, but you can probably make a couple guesses. Granted, there always just is the chance we got unlucky as well, so who knows  Lol

[xinoehp512]

The Master Physiker folded his arms with a displeased expression on his face. Maern couldn’t tell if that was a good thing or a bad thing. “Maern,” said the Master in a tone that brooked no nonsense. “You have been accused by the Honorable Captain Ferwish of assaulting an officer, impeding an investigation, and being an accomplice to arson.”

Maern nodded hesitantly. They’d said that much already- why state it again?

“The Masters are not pleased with this situation, I can assure you.” continued the Master. “We have reached a verdict.” Maern’s breath grew tight as the man’s gaze bored into his skull- then suddenly relaxed when his gaze slid the person standing next to him. Ferwish.

“Captain Ferwish,” said the Master, “you are hereby put on probation for the space of one year.”

Ferwish’s smug grin slid off his face, replaced by a confused expression. Maern couldn’t blame him: he was fairly confounded himself. Meanwhile, the Master continued to speak. “ Any additional infractions during this time period will result in demotion from the rank of captain.” He leaned over to stare directly into Ferwish’s eyes. “We will not stand for you leveling baseless accusations at individuals who you dislike.”

-----

Post counts per turn;

Player Post count	Status	Total	1.1	1.2	2.1	2.2	3.1	3.2
@Haelbarde(Edema Ruh)	Ruh	30	3	12	3	4	4	4
@Elandera (Noble)	Noble	21	8	2	2	4	2	3
@Burnt Spaghett(Commoner)	Commoner	36	7	7	5	8	4	5
@DeTess(Commoner)	Commoner	29	7	3	8	4	7	Insane
@Elkanah (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	35	12	5	5	2	9	2
@Straw(Commoner)	Commoner	54	10	4	13	14	5	8
@xinoehp512 (Commoner)	Commoner	37	8	5	5	5	5	9
@Lord_Silberfarben(Commoner)	Commoner	30	8	2	3	6	6	5
@Coda (Noble)	Noble	15	3	1	1	2	7	1
@Karnage (Noble)	Noble	23	6	3	5	4	3	2
@Hemalurgic Headshot (Noble)	Noble	2	2	Insane	Insane	Insane	Insane	Insane
@StrikerEZ (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	13	5	3	2	3	Insane	Insane
@Lumgol (Noble)	Noble	5	2	0	3	Insane	Insane	Insane
@Experience (Commoner)	Commoner	13	3	2	1	2	4	1
@Devotary of Spontaneity (Noble)	Noble	24	7	4	3	3	3	4
@CadCom (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	14	2	0	1	5	3	3
@Sart (Commoner)	Commoner	3	1	2	Insane	Insane	Insane	Insane
@Furamirionind (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	41	4	2	4	8	11	12
@Zillah (Commoner)	Commoner	11	4	3	1	2	1	0
@Araris Valerian (Noble)	Noble	15	2	1	4	4	1	3
@Rathmaskal(Commoner)	Commoner	5	1	0	1	1	2	0
@STINK (Commoner)	Commoner	23	1	3	2	5	5	7
@Kynedath (Edema Ruh)	Ruh	12	4	4	0	3	1	0
@Walin (Commoner)	Commoner	7	1	1	1	2	1	1
@GreenRover (Noble)	Noble	6	1	1	1	0	0	3
@Young Bard (Commoner)	Commoner	13	0	1	3	3	6	0
@TheMightyLopen (Noble)	Noble	21	6	3	3	3	3	3
		Total	118	74	80	97	93	76
		Average	4.37037037	2.846153846	3.2	4.041666667	4.043478261	3.454545455
		Nobles	37	15	22	20	19	19
		Average	4.111111111	1.875	2.75	2.857142857	2.714285714	2.714285714
		Commoners	51	33	43	52	46	36
		Average	4.25	2.75	3.909090909	4.727272727	4.181818182	3.6
		Edema Ruh	30	26	15	25	28	21
		Average	5	4.333333333	2.5	4.166666667	5.6	4.2

Even with the flurry of posts happening at the last minute last turn, the total was still far below the two turns prior.

Here is the vote count from last turn:

Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1}
CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}, Xino{1}, Xino{2}
Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} 
Fura(1): CadCom{1}
Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2}

Not really enough votes to expel someone, especially not with the votes spread out like they are. If we want to expel someone - and at this point, I think we probably do - then we need to really stack up the votes on them- we can't count on the random DP.

Speaking of the random DP, things just got a little less random with Walin becoming a Master. Congratulations! All the same, I can't help but feel a little bit worried; Walin has posted a grand total of seven posts the entire game, and has mostly been completely flying under the radar. Master is a powerful role; in addition to the control over DP and elevations, you are also completely immune to the lynch. He's hardly going to have an incentive to post more, either: if he could pay tuition at full price with only the basic reductions, he should be able to do the same when it's at half price.

@Walin

On the subject of votes, Stink Stink. I expressed my reasoning last turn, and will probably do some further analysis of him today.

14 hours ago, CadCom said:

I'm fairly certain that when I posted explaining that I now knew that expulsion wouldn't be as bad, Bard had 14 votes on them, not 7. That meant that just one would have bumped them up to 65% and three would have bumped them up to 80, and 5 to 90% and 6 to 100%. I still didn't add additional people to the lynch because I didn't want to make it any harder for him to be expelled. 

...wait, did you think that 1 vote=1 DP? 2 votes=1 DP, so 14 votes is 7 DP. 

Besides, wouldn't it be better to have the highest probability possible?

@CadCom 

8 hours ago, Elandera said:

Fae Lore isn't a passive ability and cancels a Skindancer's actions (not necessary Skindancer Action). The question of wondering about it affecting field actions seems more like an elim trying to figure out if they can use other actions without being caught. 

Wait, it is? @little wilson @Elbereth, can you confirm?

Aaaah. I suddenly understand Elbereth's comment a little better.

Quote

If Fae Lore activated for them, for instance, Skindancers would be incentivized to stop putting any in out of fear of being caught for doing nothing except a bit of fun. 

@Elbereth, what about the person who has the Fae Lore? From your comment, I assume RP actions that target skindancers don't cause a roleblock- what about other kinds of actions?

Actually, do I have the mechanics right at all? Rereading @Elandera's comments, I'm wondering if we have different ideas on how Fae Lore works:

Quote

If you target a Skindancer with an action,  their actions are cancelled.

Reading this, my thought regarding it is that the action mentioned presumably has to be a different one from Fae Lore- if it were strictly a conditional roleblock, I would expect it to either say 'this action' or omit the indefinite article altogether. Is this correct, or am I misreading this?  

[CadCom]

24 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

wait, did you think that 1 vote=1 DP? 2 votes=1 DP, so 14 votes is 7 DP. 

Besides, wouldn't it be better to have the highest probability possible?

Huh. So it seems I missed/forgot that in my read of the instructions

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

25 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Actually, do I have the mechanics right at all? Rereading @Elandera's comments, I'm wondering if we have different ideas on how Fae Lore works:

You might have conflated Fae Lore and Omen Recognition.

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Omen Recognition: You recognize the signs of all kinds of fae. Because of this, you can investigate any event and determine whether or not it was caused by a fae.

Omen recognition could possibly be used to determine whether a Skindancer did an RP action that appeared in the writeup, but I don't think it would work for actions whose results didn't make it into the writeup.

26 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Reading this, my thought regarding it is that the action mentioned presumably has to be a different one from Fae Lore- if it were strictly a conditional roleblock, I would expect it to either say 'this action' or omit the indefinite article altogether. Is this correct, or am I misreading this?

Fae Lore is a passive ability that increases the power of your actual actions. If you had say Fae Lore and School Records, targeting a Skindancer with School Records would roleblock them in addition to finding out their elevations.

[Experience]

10 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Experience I had said I had a slight village lean on before, but they've not posted much since. @Experience - any thoughts on last cycle's lynch? Have anyone you're suspicous of currently?

Umm, let me go and check. I wasn't around at the end of the cycle, but I'll look at it then get back to it. I'll also include suspsions and votes in that post, but I don't have very much time at the moment. 

12 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fae Lore is a passive ability that increases the power of your actual actions. If you had say Fae Lore and School Records, targeting a Skindancer with School Records would roleblock them in addition to finding out their elevations.

Hmm. I was under the impression that you used Fae Lore, and if it targeted a skindancer it roleblocked them. 

[CadCom]

@little wilson @Elbereth can someone be elevated in the same fisamethat someone becomes a master in? (Is it possible that one of the people that was elevated was in the same field that Walin just became a master in?) I skimmed through the rules and couldn't find anything for certain

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, CadCom said:

(Is it possible that one of the people that was elevated was in the same field that Walin just became a master in?) I skimmed through the rules and couldn't find anything for certain

A full nine people were elevated in addition to Walin, so one of them must have been in the same field Walin became a Master of.

[CadCom]

41 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

A full nine people were elevated in addition to Walin, so one of them must have been in the same field Walin became a Master of.

Oh oops, I didnt notice the two that weren't in parentheses

[Karnage]

Lasko Vietch looked around. No one was here, perhaps  he could actually get away with some actual studying. This mischief with the rumors of Skindancers were flying around and he couldn't stand it. Those students who went crazy probably went crazy from knowing that they hadn't studied well enough for their exams. He was a Re'lar now and he was expected to keep up with his grades so they wouldn't dip. No one, no one truly knew how it felt for him to try to push himself to the limits without tipping in order to bring his part of the family back from the brink of being disowned. His parents were probably frantic that so many of the students were being sent to the Crockery. Opening his text book, a not slipped out. (Anyone feel free to RP a note in here, I want to RP some more). Lasko put it to the side, he would read it later. Now to get on with my study of the history of myths and epic poems. After thirty minutes he took a break. Wow, I am so glad we moved on to telling more modern stories. It was wierd, his teachers told him how great and significant these were but the only thing good he saw in them was that they led for a great push-off into better entertainment.

---

[Elbereth]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fae Lore is a passive ability that increases the power of your actual actions. If you had say Fae Lore and School Records, targeting a Skindancer with School Records would roleblock them in addition to finding out their elevations.

This is incorrect. Fae Lore is an action which you can use, and will roleblock a Skindancer if that is your target. It is not passive. (I also had this misunderstanding, though, so I apologize for not going back and making the rules clearer on that point.) 

EDIT: Also, Kynedath was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief. Whoops. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Elbereth

[Furamirionind]

Ok, rereading Fae Lore, Xino's interpretation makes a lot of sense, as does the question now. I'm leaning back towards village on him.

[CadCom]

9 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1}
CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}, Xino{1}, Xino{2}
Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} 
Fura(1): CadCom{1}
Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2}

Not really enough votes to expel someone, especially not with the votes spread out like they are. If we want to expel someone - and at this point, I think we probably do - then we need to really stack up the votes on them- we can't count on the random DP.

Speaking of the random DP, things just got a little less random with Walin becoming a Master. Congratulations! All the same, I can't help but feel a little bit worried; Walin has posted a grand total of seven posts the entire game, and has mostly been completely flying under the radar. Master is a powerful role; in addition to the control over DP and elevations, you are also completely immune to the lynch. He's hardly going to have an incentive to post more, either: if he could pay tuition at full price with only the basic reductions, he should be able to do the same when it's at half price.

So first thing, I think you made a mistake, didn't I have 6 votes? In all honesty, I'm a bit too lazy to double check the actual thread, bu there's 6 names there. 

I agree. If it weren't for me being one of the people up for expulsion, I totally would have gone for more votes on people. (My bad)

I think we are likely to see Walin using their master abilities for a while. I also don't imagine the eliminators will want to kill him off yet, because they will need to have non-elim masters at some point or another, that way if/when they destroy a field, they'll have people to blame. 

I see it like this: Elim!Walin waits until at least 1 or 2 more people have become masters before destroying field. Not revealing that they destroyed the field

Village!Walin isn't killed by elims so that they have more than one person to attempt pass blame on to when a field is destroyed.

@little wilson @Elbereth when a field is destroyed, is it announced in thread? Is the master still a master of that field, meaning that discipline votes against them will be automatically dissolved?

EDIT: My personal philosophy on who to vote for is to vote for the most suspicious of the El'the from this point forward. The reason for that is because we don't want the elims to be elevated to master. It looks like the current El-the are Elkanah, Experience, Xino, Silberfarben, Zillah, and Bard(Already expelled). 

I am not yet ready to vote, but my vote will be on one of these people.

Edited May 13, 2020 by CadCom

[little wilson]

11 minutes ago, CadCom said:

@little wilson @Elbereth when a field is destroyed, is it announced in thread? Is the master still a master of that field, meaning that discipline votes against them will be automatically dissolved?

Field destruction is announced in the thread, yes. The Skindancer would no longer be the Master of that field but it would not be revealed they they had dropped down to El'the.

[xinoehp512]

Ferwish sputtered with disbelief and fury. “I’m not- you can’t-”

“We most definitely can, Ferwish,” snapped the Master. “You should be grateful we didn’t decide to kick you out on the spot. Goodness knows you’ve done enough to deserve it.” He turned back to Maern with an apologetic smile. “Sorry that you had to be bothered by this fool. I assure you, he will trouble you no further.”

Maern blinked. “So, the charges…?”

The Master smiled “Dropped, of course. You are free to go.”

Somewhat stunned, Maern made for the door. He didn’t know what he’d expected to happen, but it certainly hadn’t been that.

I hope he doesn’t try to get revenge, he thought to himself. Surely he wouldn’t… right? Maern was fairly certain that Ferwish needed the captain’s pay very badly indeed- so he wouldn’t dare do anything that would violate his probation.

It doesn’t have to be him that does whatever to me, does it? he thought worriedly. He could get a flunky to do it. Frame me for something… or worse.

He’d have to be on his guard from here on out. Ferwish hadn’t liked him before; this was sure to incite him into a rage. The only question was when it would happen...

----

10 hours ago, CadCom said:

Huh. So it seems I missed/forgot that in my read of the instructions

Well, that explains a lot.  

8 hours ago, Elbereth said:

This is incorrect. Fae Lore is an action which you can use, and will roleblock a Skindancer if that is your target. It is not passive. (I also had this misunderstanding, though, so I apologize for not going back and making the rules clearer on that point.) 

EDIT: Also, Kynedath was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief. Whoops. 

Ah, I see. Thank you for clarifying that.

2 hours ago, CadCom said:

EDIT: My personal philosophy on who to vote for is to vote for the most suspicious of the El'the from this point forward. The reason for that is because we don't want the elims to be elevated to master. It looks like the current El-the are Elkanah, Experience, Xino, Silberfarben, Zillah, and Bard(Already expelled). 

You know, that makes me wonder... you can't be elevated, but you can file RP- can you become a Master if you're under the effects of lashings? @Elbereth @little wilson

2 hours ago, little wilson said:

Field destruction is announced in the thread, yes. The Skindancer would no longer be the Master of that field but it would not be revealed they they had dropped down to El'the.

And it is announced what field was destroyed, correct?

11 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

I expressed my reasoning last turn, and will probably do some further analysis of him today.

I went and looked back at the thread, and... well, Stink hasn't really posted much, and what he has posted is mostly RP and other NAI stuff. The only real stuff of substance he's posted is his post in defense of Bard. The fact that it sticks out like it does makes me even more suspicious of him.

But I've pestered Stink enough, and there's just not that much else to say on him- he's been flying too low under the radar.

21 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

So interestlingly, Elendera is the only sane player to have not been elevated, now that Devotary, CadCom and Fura got elevations. I'm also surprised we have a Master already. I knew we had El'the but I was sort of assuming we'd have another Term before people'd be able to build up the EP for it.

Hmm... let's do some maths.

Elevations happened in turns 2.1, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.2 before Walin became a Master. He was elevated on turn 2.1, 2.2, and 3.2. Assuming he's staying at the Windy Tower and hasn't cancelled any DP for maximum EP, his elevations would go as follows if he put all his EP in one field(keeping in mind that EP are taken from the totals of the turn before elevation):

6 EP put in on cycle 1.1 for a total of 6
6 EP put in on cycle 1.2, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 7
5 EP put in on cycle 2.1, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 7
4 EP put in on cycle 2.2 for a total of 13
4 EP put in on cycle 3.1, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 12
3 EP put in on cycle 3.2, 5 EP taken away for elevation, 5 EP bonus for a total of 15.

So yes, it is possible without scattershotting EP- but he can't have lost any, whether to not staying at the Windy Tower for a turn (including the first) or to DP annihilation.

Now that I'm done with this, I wonder how helpful it really is. *sigh* Oh well- it's late at night and I just took an AP test. I've hit 200 words- I'll think about this tomorrow.

[Walin]

Hey, everyone! I have lots of ideas for what I'm going to do, but without any solid direction I don't think I'll end up being very helpful. Any direction on what to do would be greatly appreciated (though I won't be saying my field yet, lol--gotta keep some paranoia going). I started the game in Windy Tower, but I actually ended up with 17 EP in total (somehow) in my field; I also put in 1 EP for Naming just in case I got a Naming friend to elevate me. I'll look through my GM PM's to figure out how that happened, since in the words of Kronk, "by all accounts it doesn't make any sense." Though I never lost any EP to DP, and as I read it it seemed to make sense. I plan to post some analysis this turn, though my habit of procrastination may end up changing that.

My reads: Xineohp is quite villager, especially considering what's been said this turn to un-clear and re-clear him, and so do Fura and Elandera. I'm not sure about the rest, though in some PM's I indicated I'd be taking some notes this turn so I can do analysis.

------

Lin Wa was doing very cool things. *Very* cool things. But he wouldn't tell you about it, because as he was recently elevated to the rank of Master, he was too busy trying to find his notebooks, figuring out which students needed more instruction, and feeling like an imposter because he didn't have nearly the capacity to be a Master. But better to accept the rank than not to, right? Somehow, despite feeling so unlike a Master, the power started to get into his head. Imagine all the things he could do and get away with it...not like he would do anything but delve into more books, but it was nice knowing the lack of limits. He hoped that he wouldn't later do something rash, what with the Skindancers and his newfound position. Perhaps he would be instrumental in stopping them, though without the help of other students he would likely help them instead.

[Haelbarde]

On 12/05/2020 at 3:20 PM, Elkanah said:

Ouch! I had the second most posts to straw this game up until last cycle. It was fifty fifty analyses and role play as well. I will give you I disappeared for forty eight hours, but I am back and ready to give you things to analyze... In the morning. I should have been in bed an hour ago. 

Huh. I think I was pretty tired when I looked through your posts, because I think I missed a few of them. I'll upgrade you to moderately active on account of last cycle  

I look forward to hearing what you have to say.

4 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Hmm... let's do some maths.

Elevations happened in turns 2.1, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.2 before Walin became a Master. He was elevated on turn 2.1, 2.2, and 3.2. Assuming he's staying at the Windy Tower and hasn't cancelled any DP for maximum EP, his elevations would go as follows if he put all his EP in one field(keeping in mind that EP are taken from the totals of the turn before elevation):

6 EP put in on cycle 1.1 for a total of 6
6 EP put in on cycle 1.2, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 7
5 EP put in on cycle 2.1, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 7
4 EP put in on cycle 2.2 for a total of 13
4 EP put in on cycle 3.1, 5 EP taken away for elevation for a total of 12
3 EP put in on cycle 3.2, 5 EP taken away for elevation, 5 EP bonus for a total of 15.

So yes, it is possible without scattershotting EP- but he can't have lost any, whether to not staying at the Windy Tower for a turn (including the first) or to DP annihilation.

Now that I'm done with this, I wonder how helpful it really is. *sigh* Oh well- it's late at night and I just took an AP test. I've hit 200 words- I'll think about this tomorrow.

Huh. Thanks for doing that. Looks like you've recorded two things wrong though: With your calculation, 7 EP at the start of 2.2, plus 4, gives 11 EP at the start of 3.1. And then the elevation to El'the for the start of 3.2 would have given the +5 immedately, to leave him with 15 EP at the start of that cycle, leaving us at 18 for the elevations at the end of 3.2, which was more than enough for elevation at 4.1. 

 

[TheMightyLopen]

16 hours ago, Elbereth said:

This is incorrect. Fae Lore is an action which you can use, and will roleblock a Skindancer if that is your target. It is not passive. (I also had this misunderstanding, though, so I apologize for not going back and making the rules clearer on that point.) 

EDIT: Also, Kynedath was brought on the Horns and charged with Undignified Mischief. Whoops. 

So Kynedath was brought on the Horns. Makes more sense lol.

Anyways, at this point, besides thinking Xino is likely village for revealing Bard(unless they're just passing on the scans from the real Linguist), I feel like I need to re-evaluate my reads at this point. Coda could have gone insane naturally, but if so, there would have been no sabotage. At least I can move on I suppose. If he breaks out, we can deal with it then.

Not many votes once again.

Zillah(1): Haelbarde
Stink(2): Xino, Xino

I guess I'd be fine with either of these? I don't really remember much of what either player has done, except that Stink did sorta defend Bard. I was surprised at Cadcom's votes last Month, especially putting one on Xino. If Xino is a village Linguist, maybe Cadcom was trying to take him down(or at least roleblock him) with him? Kynedath seems so inactive now I'm not sure it's worth going after him again. Hm. I'm just gonna post a player list with what info we know about each player and hopefully it helps me get a better grip on our current situation.

Nobles:

Spoiler

Lopen - Re'lar. Should always be trusted.
Elandera - No elevations. Mild trust from early on, but should re-evaluate.
Karnage - Re'lar. Mild trust. I've read them as village throughout. New player though, so am still trying to be careful not to assume anything.
Devotary - E'lir. Mild suspicion, mostly by process of elimination elsewhere.
Araris - Mild trust. Interestingly I don't remember anyone claiming to be suspicious of Araris. Not sure what to make of that though.
Green Rover - Fairly quiet. They voted on Kynedath at the very end of last Month, but I don't remember what else they've done lately. Need to review their posts.
Coda - Insane
HH - Insane
Lumgol - Insane

Commoners:

Spoiler

Burnt - Re'lar. Mild trust, with paranoia. I'd say if Kynedath is a Skindancer, she's likely village. However, I'm not super confident Kynedath is evil, so I'm hesitant to read too much into that.
Straw - Re'lar. Hasn't posted this Month yet, which is a bit surprising. Any big suspicions or anyone you trust right now Straw?
Xino - El'the. My best guess for villager for obvious reasons.
Lord Silberfarben - El'the. Mild trust, based on their posts lately.
Experience - El'the. Haven't seen them much from them. Have posted saying they'll put some thoughts up and vote, so hopefully they're able to get that done. The more voters we can get the better.
Zillah - El'the. I don't remember much from them either. >> Kinda worrisome there are so many high rank players we don't know much about.
Rathmaskal - Re'lar. Again, not much.
Stink - E'lir. Xino laid out reasons to be suspicious of Stink for his semi-defense of Bard, which I think is somewhat valid. One thing I'm worried about is whether Stink would actually attempt to stop a lynch against Bard at the point that he posted that. Idk, I've never been able to tell what Stink is capable of lol.  I'm not against lynching him if there's not a better target I suppose.
Walin - Master. I was also not expecting someone to become Master so quickly. I thought it might be closer to Term 6 or something like that. I think it's worth keeping a close eye on him from now on. Advice: Since we don't know your field, can't give specific advice, but in general, give abilities that are mostly useful to the village if you can(to people you suspect are village ), if you're in one of the Insanity ones, be careful using high risk abilities unless you know a trustworthy Physicker? Ah, you can also assign your DP to players you want expelled, which is very useful. I guess that's it.
Bard - El'the. Expelled. Best guess for a Skindancer. Probably safe to assume he is and analyze from there.
DeTess - Insane
Sart - Insane

Edema Ruh:

Spoiler

Kynedath - E'lir. Mild/Strong suspicion. Fairly inactive lately though, so idk. Anyone think it would be worth trying to expel him again?
Cadcom - E'lir. Roleblocked for the next 3 Months unless they have Nahlrout. I hadn't really paid much attention to Cadcom so far, but my suspicion is growing after the last couple Months. I think his lack of votes on Bard has already been talked about a lot, so I won't dwell on it. Similarly to Stink, I think it would be sorta strange to defend Bard at that point, but who knows. What I'm more suspicious of was his self-preservation attempt last Month. Specifically his vote on Xino, my highest village read. Also ended up spreading the votes out so much no one was expelled, but considering he was up for the lynch I'm not sure I'd count that against him.
Haelbarde - Re'lar. At this point I'm kinda paranoid of Hael? Similar to Devotary, I find him hard to read, so when I can't seem to find any strong suspicions I start to consider those I can't get a good read on. I think there's better lynch targets right now though, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. He's also one of two players to have voted, which I suppose is a point in his favor.
Fura - E'lir. Also roleblocked for 3 Months unless they have Nahlrout. Mild trust, I liked their responses when under threat of the lynch, as well as the fact that Cadcom voted on them last Month and I'm suspicious of him.
Elkanah - El'the. Uh, another I don't remember much from. Need to do some reviewing. >>
Striker - Insane

Phew. So yeah, at this point I think Cadcom would be my preferred lynch. Cadcom Cadcom

If we end up needing to consolidate votes, I'll try to get on before rollover to move somewhere else. I'd prefer it if we get more votes down before the last hour though?

Updated vote tally:

Zillah(1): Haelbarde
Stink(2): Xino, Xino
Cadcom(2): Lopen, Lopen

I haven't really figured out the numbers, but how many people is too many people up for the lynch? I'm thinking anything over 5 makes it sorta unlikely anyone gets expelled?

[STINK]

9 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Stink hasn't really posted much, and what he has posted is mostly RP and other NAI stuff. The only real stuff of substance he's posted is his post in defense of Bard. The fact that it sticks out like it does makes me even more suspicious of him.

Hey wassup I'm back into play and @Straw, I will try my best to muster some sort of RP we can collaborate on but first I gotta just say this one thing cause honestly it's kind of been 'irking' me (is irking even a word? it's not being spell-corrected so it should be right?)

It wasn't even a defence of Bard, which is why I've just been kinda ignoring your votes. It's an analysis stemming from a hyper-focus (presumably 'cause of the hype of LA hitting a lie) and this 'defence' of Bard was just me seeing a 'lil neat logic puzzle kind of thing and writing it out 'cause there were so many posts throwing around different things and if I remember correctly no-one even picked up on the R&L claim. So yeah, not gonna bother defending myself from 'Stink defended Bard' when from my PoV he was just kinda there while I did my own thing. 

(Sorry Bard if you take that personally uhh you're a great guy)

Also wow if I get hit with the thing where there's no votes so you get a bunch of DP like I think it was LG18 euuugh anyway time to drink water and do some workouts see all you beautiful people later

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Hm. I do have to echo Haels concern about there being elthes we know little about. Just looking at the post counts, We have xino elk and silba who are all 30+ in posts this game. But zillah and experience  with 11 and 13.  And walin, the new master, only had 7?? I'm concerned about us getting more masters we know very little about. Cause these people are paying enough attention to be putting in EP and managing tuition, while avoiding being super active and noticeable in thread. They aren't inactive. And chances are the elthe are probably all in different fields right? So they would all have master potential sooner rather than later? Yeah, a lot of them have been elevated simultaneously so probably different fields, uncontested fields possibly too. Now i'm just like o_O about the possibility of a tonne of masters at once. Whats the most we've had at once? I feel like when we got masters everything went nuclear the first time, and the second i was expelled so didn't really care what was happening with elevations, so i've never properly worried about masters before >> tbh i'd be in favour of not letting elthe hit master, on the off chance their a skindancer but village masters can be very powerful allies to have. Hmph i need to go form what opinions i can about the elthe methinks, cause at least some of them have been active enough to be saying things.

[Elkanah]

4 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Huh. I think I was pretty tired when I looked through your posts, because I think I missed a few of them. I'll upgrade you to moderately active on account of last cycle  

I look forward to hearing what you have to say.

You got it, coach

57 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Hm. I do have to echo Haels concern about there being elthes we know little about. Just looking at the post counts, We have xino elk and silba who are all 30+ in posts this game. But zillah and experience  with 11 and 13.  And walin, the new master, only had 7?? I'm concerned about us getting more masters we know very little about. Cause these people are paying enough attention to be putting in EP and managing tuition, while avoiding being super active and noticeable in thread. They aren't inactive. And chances are the elthe are probably all in different fields right? So they would all have master potential sooner rather than later? Yeah, a lot of them have been elevated simultaneously so probably different fields, uncontested fields possibly too. Now i'm just like o_O about the possibility of a tonne of masters at once. Whats the most we've had at once? I feel like when we got masters everything went nuclear the first time, and the second i was expelled so didn't really care what was happening with elevations, so i've never properly worried about masters before >> tbh i'd be in favour of not letting elthe hit master, on the off chance their a skindancer but village masters can be very powerful allies to have. Hmph i need to go form what opinions i can about the elthe methinks, cause at least some of them have been active enough to be saying things.

I'll give you a little information on where I came from. I took a little longer to elevate in the field I wanted, so I decided to try the scattershot approach. I have EP in most fields, so it will be a little while before I can be elevated to master, but now I have a couple lower level things I can do. I will keep those to  myself for now, but you do not have to worry about me ascending.

I too was surprised to see Walin move up so fast, but there is nothing I can do about that now. I am still in agreement that a master is a super strong tool to give the eliminators and would therefore be happy to expel an El'The.

To your point about the El'the all being elevated in different fields: no we aren't all necessarily in unique fields. I have elevations in three different fields, so it's very possible that others tried the same strategy and we overlap on one, two, or maybe even all three fields. However, we do know nine people have been elevated every turn, so we can do some math things that will probably be wrong and someone else can fix.

There were elevations in 2.1; 2.2; 3.1; 3.2; and 4.1. Wow this math is going to get messy fast! I'll post this now for tuition and come back with math.

[Rathmaskal]

Unless I'm missing something, your EP calculations aren't necessarily...necessary...  My second elevation was in a field I only had one EP in.  So, you could potentially just get the 15 EP in a field you aren't actually elevated in...  I'm a bit tired to figure out the math for it...but it seems like it definitely could be possible.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

36 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Unless I'm missing something, your EP calculations aren't necessarily...necessary...  My second elevation was in a field I only had one EP in.  So, you could potentially just get the 15 EP in a field you aren't actually elevated in...  I'm a bit tired to figure out the math for it...but it seems like it definitely could be possible.

Ah that's a good point. It's something that relies a lot on luck too though. But certainly possible, but you'd be wanting to avoid being voted on. I considered that as something I could do down the track since I scattershot my ep,  but I've actually lost a lot of the unused ep I've put in from it cancelling out so. That routes a lot harder to math out I think  but if you assumed someone was the luckiest person who dice loved then yeah definitely be possible I'd think