Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

What if they are both GB?

 

I didn't really suspect Tion until you told me that key piece of information. Now I think Grelin, Tion, and Jost are all Ghostbloods. Of course, that means that all of our spanreed holders are evil, so we have to be discussing things publicly. Here's what I think happened. Early on in Day One, Jost, knowing that Grelin had started with a spanreed, suggested the plan of having each conversation include exactly two people. The GBs encouraged us to be open in PMs, since there was a "third party." However, it was only an illusion. Each GB PM included two GBs and one regular player.  They conned the regular player in the message, found out what items he had, and then killed whoever had the best ones. They controlled the communication, and thus killed us.

 

As to why I now suspect Tion. He sent me a lovely PM with Jost as the "third party." This means that Tion had the same partner for at least 3 separate messages (Mine, Claincy's, and Macen's) That makes no sense if they were on our side, because they should've had different partners to hopefully keep one message secure. Therefore, I'm voting for Tion. He already has one vote, so he's my best chance to kill one of them.

 

Also, I was the one who switched Tion's vote to Jim Bob Dirt. I started the game out with the Reverser, although that was my first time using it. I don't suspect Jim Bob Dirt, mostly because the votes against him make no sense. Grelin was the first one to bring up not voting, yet Jost conveniently forgot about that. They've kept up this campaign against him because he isn't voting, although there are 3 other mostly inactive players that they aren't targeting. It's now or never. If Tion isn't guilty, I apologize, we're all dead.

 

Well, this makes about as much sense as anything. And at this point, I must agree that every vote counts. Tion.

 

As for the people suspecting me... I honestly never thought that me saying we shouldn't lynch someone on the first day would end up making so many people thinking I'm suspicious. Oh well, that's just how it is some times.

[Macen]

Well, at least we are getting some communication going. It's better than the slump we were stuck in. The unfortunate thing is, I think we are going to miss the mark again. If Tion is GB the game is already over.

I would still greatly appreciate if Sphinx's heir contacted us. Unless the heir was GB, so they got both items, it will help us immensely find a GB.

[Metacognition]

Sorry guys, but if you kill me, we've practically lost. 

 

I have spent the last day pouring over everything I can to try to figure out who the Ghostbloods are and it comes down to Reversers. Right now, I know of 3 people who have claimed to have Reversers and they all claim to have had them from the beginning of the game. If that were the case, then there would have to be four Reversers in this game and whomever got the one from Sphinx's death still hasn't spoken up. Couple this with the fact that we've never had a day were more than two Reversers were used and yet there are supposedly so many of them out there. Someone out of those three (or multiple of them) is lying, but we don't have the luxury to just lynch on a guess of which one. If we mislynch here and there are 5 of them (worst case scenario), then by the next day it will be 6 vs 5. 

 

That is why we need Sphinx's heir to step forward. If not, we're still in the dark and will have to pick one as random and hope that we pick correctly. 

[Theorymaker]

The important thing that everyone is missing is that Tion is a leader. And if there is one thing we need this game it is a leader. Looking at Game 4 the reason they were so succesful in killing all the PK is that they had a leader that could unify them on a single purpose. I personally don't like Tion (no offense), but I can put my feelings aside and work along with whatever plan he makes up. And no it won't be blind faith. I'll consider whatever he says and decide on my own whether to follow his plan or not. Just cause you don't agree with everything he has done to this point and have a feeling that he is evil doesn't mean you should lynch him. Think of a different plan for getting information.

[Sart]

So... What do you guys think of my theory? I'm worried that it might be too paranoid, but I know it has some merit.

 

My only concern are the votes for Jim Bob Dirt. I can't figure out a motive for them. At this point, I'm wondering if we had the Emotion Bracelet detect him. That would explain why votes keep coming up for him, but that wouldn't explain why Claincy targeted Jain instead of Adolin. If we have confirmed shenanigans, have someone inform the main thread. At this point, we need a confirmed kill. Holding back information is hurting us right now.

 

So, why are we targeting Jim?

[Wyrmhero]

I'll say it again: We could lose tonight if everything goes poorly. Say there are four Ghostbloods. With a Reverser, that means they have five votes. Effectively, they win if there are ten players left. One person will be lynched today. Two people will die tonight. If one of those people has a Reverser, they will have six votes and will therefore have control. That's game over on Night 4.

 

So, why are we targeting Jim?

 

To be honest, my only reasons this day were because Fnorf was highly suspicious of him, and because he hasn't said anything. I want people to talk. People talking is good. I am highly disappointed with the number of people who haven't commented today. But he has appeared, so I'll switch votes to someone else in the hope of getting a discussion going. I remove my vote from Jim.

 

Your theory has merit, Smart. Even now, I do not trust Meta fully. Though you'd be foolish to do so in this game, particularly with how badly we're doing. He is indeed a leader, but unfortunately he's the only leader. We have too few experienced players left for anyone else to assume that mantle, and so there is the danger that a Ghostblood could be in control. The best option there would be to check his entire game and how he has voted for inconsistencies and try and convince us with them.

 

But we need to consider it carefully. If Meta is indeed innocent, then he is the hub we must protect and consider information with. If Tion is indeed GB, then my suspicions would follow on to be Ace, Jost and Grellin, since they've been discussing things all together for a long while.

 

I am suspicious of Jost. When I asked to be contacted by PM groups, I got two responses: One from Meta, with Ace as a 'protector', and one from Jost. Jost's PM group contains six new players as well as him. While this could be an act of reaching out to new players, I can't help but consider it as the Ghostbloods trying to manipulate the newer players. I am not worried about revealing a spanreed holder to the GB, because with seven people in the group, I'm certain at least one is Ghostblood.

 

Considering that Jost hasn't informed Meta that he has inherited a Spanreed, and there are apparently three people with them, I suspect him for going behind Meta's back when they are apparently working together. He has also lynched two innocents. The second day was to 'prove' that someone had a Reverser, and that night we didn't see a reversed vote - though there was no need for one to be used, I admit.

 

As such, I am voting Jost for now, and want him to explain his motives.

Edited May 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Macen]

Theory, I would like to point out I'm being a leader too! > (That's an angry face, if it doesn't show up).

Kidding aside. Like I said, Meta and I (with jost as well) have been trying to find a target for tonight. I ask again, if anyone knows where Sphinxs items went (one was inherited, one was taken), please let us know.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Macen

[Awesomeness Summoned]

 

So, why are we targeting Jim?

 

 

To be honest... I don't have extremely strong reason for going Jim. But so far this game my suspicions haven't really panned out so there isn't that much strong for me to go on for anyone. Even Tion, Ace, and Jost who have the most information in the game are having difficulties piecing a solid suspect down so I wouldn't expect anyone will be able to give you a reason for their vote other than vague theories.

 

I explained my reasoning for why I think people with a certain play style this game might be who we should be looking at. Of that group, I have reason to suspect Jim mostly because a vote for him was nullified yesterday, either with the pain knife or with a reverser. That cold have just been to make sure Aonar got lynched, it could have been Jim actually protecting himself, or it could have been the GB protecting one of their own.

 

Yes, I know, its flimsy but any vote will be based on what info I have but its the best I can do and as it has been said, we desperately need discussion and a plan today. If Ace's group (I'll call it your group to make you happy Macen) can come up with a logical reason why someone else would be a better target, then I'll definitely reassess. 

 

Edit: forgot to add the quote I was responding to

Edited May 23, 2014 by Awesomeness Summoned

[A Joe in the Bush]

I am suspicious of Jost. When I asked to be contacted by PM groups, I got two responses: One from Meta, with Ace as a 'protector', and one from Jost. Jost's PM group contains six new players as well as him. While this could be an act of reaching out to new players, I can't help but consider it as the Ghostbloods trying to manipulate the newer players. I am not worried about revealing a spanreed holder to the GB, because with seven people in the group, I'm certain at least one is Ghostblood.

 

Considering that Jost hasn't informed Meta that he has inherited a Spanreed, and there are apparently three people with them, I suspect him for going behind Meta's back when they are apparently working together. He has also lynched two innocents. The second day was to 'prove' that someone had a Reverser, and that night we didn't see a reversed vote - though there was no need for one to be used, I admit.

 

As such, I am voting Jost for now, and want him to explain his motives.

 

I Pm'd Meta before I Pm'd you Guys. I started a PM group for you guys because people were complaining about not being PM'd. I've been Working With Meta since the Time he helped Lynch Xanas and Got a Spanreed. In fact,

 

 

1. The ghostbloods have been working right up front from the start to orchestrate things which has ultimately resulted in them controlling all forms of secret conversation.

 

suspects: Tion, Ace, Jost, Grellin, Wurum

 

Likelihood: Low. If this is the case, I won't feel bad about losing because it was masterfully done.

 

 

There was a one in 5 chance of me getting a Spanreed by Voting Aodan.

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

 

 

 

 

To be honest... I don't have extremely strong reason for going Jim. But so far this game my suspicions haven't really panned out so there isn't that much strong for me to go on for anyone. Even Tion, Ace, and Jost who have the most information in the game are having difficulties piecing a solid suspect down so I wouldn't expect anyone will be able to give you a reason for their vote other than vague theories.

 

I explained my reasoning for why I think people with a certain play style this game might be who we should be looking at. Of that group, I have reason to suspect Jim mostly because a vote for him was nullified yesterday, either with the pain knife or with a reverser. That cold have just been to make sure Aonar got lynched, it could have been Jim actually protecting himself, or it could have been the GB protecting one of their own.

 

Yes, I know, its flimsy but any vote will be based on what info I have but its the best I can do and as it has been said, we desperately need discussion and a plan today. If Ace's group (I'll call it your group to make you happy Macen) can come up with a logical reason why someone else would be a better target, then I'll definitely reassess. 

 

Edit: forgot to add the quote I was responding to

 

Just to clarify, I did use a pain knife on Fnorf. And, yes, it was solely to protect me.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

There was a one in 5 chance of me getting a Spanreed by Voting Aodan.

Only if he hadn't designated an Heir right? If someone is lynched and has an heir all the items go to them. Regardless, like I said, that isn't high on my list of likely scenarios.

 

Just to clarify, I did use a pain knife on Fnorf. And, yes, it was solely to protect me.

Well, that was what I actually suspected but I really didn't have much else to base accusations on. It doesn't absolutely exonerate you but I'm not going to punish you for protecting yourself so I will retract my vote for Jim Bob Dirt for now.

[Metacognition]

Okay guys, here goes nothing! 

 

We have reason to suspect Grellin. First and foremost, he's the final initial Spanreed holder and it's been assumed since the very beginning that there was likely one of them that was a Ghostblood. The others have been cleared by their deaths, unfortunately. If that was the only reason, I'd have no problem with you all laughing me into oblivion, but there's more. 

 

First off, I'd like to say that there are far too many claims of Reversers for comfort. Throughout every day turn, we've only seen at most, 2 Reversers in use, but there have been claims of three to four of them present. Grellin has claimed to have one only after Pailan's death. Typcially that wouldn't be enough for me to actually think him suspicious, as the Ghostbloods very well could've gotten the Emotional Bracelet from Pailan's death, but he didn't claim to have just gotten it. He claimed to have had it since the very beginning of the game, yet he didn't tell anyone about it until after Pailan was revealed to have one. 

 

I've asked him about that specific situation and he's not replied. Fine, fair enough, considering that he said that he was going to be busy, but he's seen the messages and he's been on the forum checking out the Quick Fix game since then. If he's not a Ghostblood, then he's not helping us in any way by making himself seem even more guilty. 

If we're wrong, I'll be posting all of my suspicions at the end of the night, so that you'll all have them to work from in the future, wish you all good luck and gladly submit to your lynching the next day, as I'm obviously being more of a hindrance to us than a help. 

[luckat]

At this point, I think it is best to go with Tion's choice of Grellin. Following Tion is probably our best bet, and his reasoning makes sense.

[Metacognition]

I doubt that night could have gone much worse.  The only positive I can think of is that should any spies find someone with a shardblade then we can be almost certain that they would be a GB as I don't think there would be more than one blade in the game.

 

My vote today will again be for Tion.  My reasons from the last day round haven’t changed.  However a couple of new things did happen since then that should be considered.

 

1. Tion called a shard challenge when there wasn’t enough time in the day.  This could mean that he was unaware of the rule about there needing to be at least 24 hours left, he could’ve forgotten about the rule or it was a ploy to get people to lynch Aonar while making it seem like one of the first two options.  Given that Tion has played far more games than most of us here I doubt it was the first option.  (For those that don’t know, Tion plays on at least one other forum which has far more complex rules than ours.)

 

2. My vote was switched from Tion to Aonar.  This could be the GB trying to defend one of their own but I doubt it as Tion was never in much danger of being lynched and I doubt the GB would make such an obvious move given how well they have remained hidden.

 

As such my suspicion of Tion has lessened but he is still the one I am most suspicious of being a GB.

 

Ultimately I think Tion is either a GB playing an aggressive defence or he is being played for one of the Ten Fools.  (No offence Tion, these are just my thoughts.)

 

If you look back over the rules clarification Claincy gave, Maill wasn't very clear with it. He stated within 12-24 hours (which is a huge difference in time in the first place). If you look at when my challenge was issued, it was just before there was 12 hours left in the day. I was under the impression that his timing meant that the challenge had to be issued sometime before there was only 12 hours left in the day. Which is why it seemed rushed. Also, your second option leaves something to be desired, as it would (as you've proven by voting for me) back fire on me during the next day. When I've already been under such suspicion before hand, there's almost no gain in only getting a single lynch and then losing the person that they supposedly wasted so much to get in a position of pseudo-innocence. 

 

 

What if they are both GB?

 

I didn't really suspect Tion until you told me that key piece of information. Now I think Grelin, Tion, and Jost are all Ghostbloods. Of course, that means that all of our spanreed holders are evil, so we have to be discussing things publicly. Here's what I think happened. Early on in Day One, Jost, knowing that Grelin had started with a spanreed, suggested the plan of having each conversation include exactly two people. The GBs encouraged us to be open in PMs, since there was a "third party." However, it was only an illusion. Each GB PM included two GBs and one regular player.  They conned the regular player in the message, found out what items he had, and then killed whoever had the best ones. They controlled the communication, and thus killed us.

 

As to why I now suspect Tion. He sent me a lovely PM with Jost as the "third party." This means that Tion had the same partner for at least 3 separate messages (Mine, Claincy's, and Macen's) That makes no sense if they were on our side, because they should've had different partners to hopefully keep one message secure. Therefore, I'm voting for Tion. He already has one vote, so he's my best chance to kill one of them.

 

Also, I was the one who switched Tion's vote to Jim Bob Dirt. I started the game out with the Reverser, although that was my first time using it. I don't suspect Jim Bob Dirt, mostly because the votes against him make no sense. Grelin was the first one to bring up not voting, yet Jost conveniently forgot about that. They've kept up this campaign against him because he isn't voting, although there are 3 other mostly inactive players that they aren't targeting. It's now or never. If Tion isn't guilty, I apologize, we're all dead.

 

So either I'm a Ghostblood that's voting for the lynching of someone you suspect is my teammate or your list is wrong. 

 

I added Ace to half the conversations I have up with people and Jost to the other half. As I stated within the message, I did this to ensure that neither one of us could lie about the information that was shared within when it was shared elsewhere with others that weren't in the PM. I specifically set this up to keep the Ghostbloods from being able to manipulate what was said by each person and somehow that is suspicious? 

 

I also suggested caution about the PMs the first day and was brought up as a possible suspect because Fnorf and I both claimed that not having PMs wasn't the end of the world. 

 

I'd say your theory doesn't hold up, but of course I'd say that, but I also say it because there's too many holes in it. 

 

 

 

And there's my defense against the accusations leveled at me. From here, I'll let you guys make up your own mind. Just remember that the Ghostbloods are likely voting too. 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Metacognition

[Macen]

I'm sorry guys. I'm at a friends 1920s themed bday party. So, if I send a message tonight I'm probably intoxicated. Sorry bout that.

I'll respond more in the morning. I need to get caught up on everything.

Since u was one of the driving people behind the Grellin vote I will be backing it up. It's not 100% but it's pretty close and the best we have.

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

I honestly don't know what to believe at this point. Tion Grellin

[Metacognition]

I just went through and tallied all the votes, so here's an up to date count:

 

Tion- ll (Alv, Saritu)

Jost- l (Wurum)

Grellin- llll (Tion, Lucal, Ace, Jim Bob)

[Alvron]

If you look back over the rules clarification Claincy gave, Maill wasn't very clear with it. He stated within 12-24 hours (which is a huge difference in time in the first place). If you look at when my challenge was issued, it was just before there was 12 hours left in the day. I was under the impression that his timing meant that the challenge had to be issued sometime before there was only 12 hours left in the day. Which is why it seemed rushed. Also, your second option leaves something to be desired, as it would (as you've proven by voting for me) back fire on me during the next day. When I've already been under such suspicion before hand, there's almost no gain in only getting a single lynch and then losing the person that they supposedly wasted so much to get in a position of pseudo-innocence. 

Actually if you look back through the full sign up postings and questions you would see that Claincy questioned if it had a time limit like 12 - 24 hours.  Maill stated in the last post before the game started that it had to be declared with at least 24 hours left.  As it was right before the game started and wasn't updated in the main post I am not surprised that many missed it which was why I didn't think that your shard challenge was done as a GB ploy.

 

As for my second opinion I believe that I did state that if it was a GB that changed my vote to make sure you were safe then it was very poorly done given how well they have remained hidden.  Now that Ace has come forward and claimed that he chose my vote simply so another could prove that they have a reverser, I feel that it was simply a coincidence and I read too much into it.

 

I do apologize if my other post wasn't clear, but I do believe that I said that my suspicion of you had lessened.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Well, can't really come up with any better reasoning to lynch someone than what Grellin has going against him. I was the 5th vote for Faialen as well. Hopefully that's not a bad sign and we get better results this time.

[Wyrmhero]

I Pm'd Meta before I Pm'd you Guys. I started a PM group for you guys because people were complaining about not being PM'd. I've been Working With Meta since the Time he helped Lynch Xanas and Got a Spanreed.

 

Ah, okay. That's fair enough then. I will retract my vote for you Jost due to your explanation. I wasn't sure if it was behind Meta's back or not. Your PM group is certainly appreciated, even if everyone appears to be somewhat shy.

 

Honestly, I'm still not really suspecting anyone enough to lynch them at the moment. Too much has changed in this game too quickly, and it's meant that we have less information. Ideally, we lynch a Ghostblood today, and can use that to figure out who the rest are. Unfortunately, it's unlikely we'll get the Shardblade back to our side, since we would need the Grandbow user to make a night kill to get it, since Lynching won't get us an item from someone on the evil side.

 

If Grellin isn't evil, then we really have very little to go on. But if he is, then we might finally be able to make some leeway as to who is a Ghostblood. Unfortunately, he's only voted once, for Faialen, so there's not masses we can glean immediately. But if he has an item other than a Spanreed, then that's more information that we can use.

 

Before, I commented that it is cruel to vote for someone while they're absent. However, it's somewhat different if they have a decent chance of being a Ghostblood, especially this 'late' into the game. We cannot risk a Reversal or a nullified vote today. I agree with Meta's points, and I will therefore vote Grellin.

[Kasimir]

I was pretty convinced after Faialen's lynch that Tion was a GB, but now after what he's said in his defence, I'm not sure again. My reasons for thinking Tion is not on our side are mostly the reasons that have been brought up in this thread already, and while I'd be happy to lay out my reasons a bit more, I've chosen to skip over it for now because I am not going to vote Tion. (And this, rather than the reasons for Tion, I think, is going to take a bit of explaining.) Storm it, Tion, did you have to go and make me doubt again?
 
While Tion is still high on my suspicion list, I am not doing so for two reasons: first, I do not think it is likely that Tion, Mace, and Jost are all GBs. That being said, we have others running around there. Second: many people have consistently emphasised, in an attempt to draw out some of us more conservative players, that we do not have the luxury of certainty in this game. I can accept that, though I grant my threshold for 'vote-worthy suspicion' is probably too high for comfort. However. I feel that with regard to Tion, I need a higher level of certainty before voting him. If Tion is currently engaged in gathering information, then a mislynch at this point in the game is going to cost us. Badly.
 
So I choose not to vote Tion. Instead, I vote (as Wyrm noted, possibly my last chance in this game to do so) for Grellin. I did not buy Faialen's suspicions of Grellin because I was initially in a PM group that Grellin had set up with Mace and Wes. My impressions of Grellin at that point in time gave me no reason for suspicion. At this point in time, though, he seems like the best lead, after Tion. I agree with the mentioned reasoning about the spanreed and the reverser. Although it's still a bit too chancy for my liking, I hope that my vote will help prevent any further shenanigens with reversers or painknives. 

[Aspren]

That's about seven votes for Grellin. With little or no resistance. I doubt that Grellin is a GB.

[Mailliw73]

Just a heads-up, the weekends are a bit crazy for me, so like last week, this writeup may be late. It should be up before midnight MDT/07:00 GMT. The day will be extended until I can get on. I may be able to get on by the correct writeup time, but we'll see. The night cycle will the be extended until 3:30 MDT/22:30 GMT on Monday. Sorry for any problems this may cause.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I don't think that Grey is a Ghostblood. It just doesn't make sense. The way he's played the Game and his Posts are point to his Innocence. So I'm goin to Once again Vote For Sprenil. He's a GB, I'm almost Certain. He brought all that attention onto himself on Day one (Ruining my Plan) and since hasn't posted that much.

[Kasimir]

Jost. How did he ruin your plan, again? (As I recall, you proposed several of them.)