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To be honest, all I have is reads as well. The two elim reads I have right now seem to be on everyone else's list, and have been read as anywhere from strong village to slight Elim.

The first is Bort: He had a lot of communication in-thread with Elandera and Wonko in C1 regarding tinkers. That seems like it could have been a tactic to just seem like they are all trying to have fun on D1, to go under the scrutiny radar. But I find it unlikely that 3 elims together would actually try communicating in thread, with each other. So, while I will be watching Bort, he is currently Neutral for me.

The other, of course is Rae. I can't remember the process I went through with her, but it ended up as putting her as neutral as well. Unfortunately I wasn't writing anything down at the time, so the notes are just mental notes.

I still want to do Analysis on Drought, and Snip especially. I know many people see Alvron as hard village, but I want to do a personal analysis of him. And have a gut feeling to do analysis on Devotary and Xino. 

Of course I'm curious and suspicious about what happened to Orlok. But I will forget about that for now, until we are able to get more information about it.

This game, I will be less active than other games. I will still be able to get on, but unfortunately, most of my analysis will have to be based off of others' analysis, and less of my own. 

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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I'd like to remind everyone not to send pm's about the game to people outside the game. People within the game are the gm's, IM and those listed as alive in the player list.

Also

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

"Orlok? Orlok's not playing this game, and he never was. :ph34r:"

 

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I am currently attempting to analyze quite literally the entire thread post-by-post, and will publish my results later. I suspect Orlok’s disappearance has to do with Encanis, and Wonko is likely chuckling into his sleeve in his fiery iron pit knowing we’ll never see Locke again. 

For the record, Orlok roleclaimed Minor Singer to me on the first cycle. If anyone wants to confirm this, they can.

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I have a hard elim read on Alv. We shouldn't trust him at all, and we should lynch him this cycle if possible. :ph34r:

So.. yeah, it's a fair assumption that this is Encanis's doing, especially considering we previously didn't know exactly what his kill did. 

The big problem here is that, despite the fact that we're in a pretty big lead, with two elims and two (three, perhaps?) villagers dead, we have very little usable information, in large part because of the lack of elim kills so far. I'm going to put a vote on Alvron, to not back down on the suspicion I leveled at him :ph34r: Jokes aside, this is just a placeholder. Genuinely, I have literally no valid suspicions, though I'm kinda iffy on CadCom. Not enough to really justify lynching him, though.

I'd also like to hear more from @I think I am here., @xinoehp512, @Arinian and @Megasif before I place a serious vote.

Vote count:

Walin (1): Bort

Orlok??? (1) Walin (This shouldn't count, but eh. I'll leave it.)

Alv (1): Eternum

Edited by Eternum
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Orlok roleclaimed Minor Singer to me as well. I have also not gotten a Namer message: has anyone, this cycle? If not, I wonder if Orlok was the Namer. I'm sorry for not posting very much: this is my first game, and I don't know much.

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Orlok claimed Minor Singer to me too, yes. I haven't gotten a Namer message either.

2 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Orlok roleclaimed Minor Singer to me as well. I have also not gotten a Namer message: has anyone, this cycle? If not, I wonder if Orlok was the Namer. I'm sorry for not posting very much: this is my first game, and I don't know much.

Orlok could have been the Namer, but we'll have to wait until next cycle and see if the Namer sends another message.

Also, that's fine. It's not really about knowing how to play. I've been part of the community for a while now, and I still don't know what I'm even doing 3/4 of the time :P All we ask for are your thoughts. We don't have any pennies to spare, though, so tough luck :P

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1 hour ago, Eternum said:

I've been part of the community for a while now, and I still don't know what I'm even doing 3/4 of the time :P

I can second this. I like referencing AG4, where I trusted most of the elim team and lost the game for the village. Nobody really has any clue what they’re doing, except maybe Orlok and Rand :P 

Good to know Orlok wasn’t lying (I’m assuming- he could have claimed a role different from the one he has, but he’s still confirmed village/nonexistent, so he’s more likely to be telling the truth). I can confirm our Namer exists, and is village, though he or she hasn’t told me why there’s no message this cycle. 

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8 hours ago, Young Bard said:

 Orlok, Eternum, and Alv, I consider to be absolutely trustworthy villagers, for having voted on Wonko. 

Image result for mustache twirling cartoon villain gif
Good, good.  They don't suspect me.  Muhahahahahaha.

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

I have a hard elim read on Alv. We shouldn't trust him at all, and we should lynch him this cycle if possible. :ph34r:

Curses, spoke too soon. Quick, must look innocent.
Related image

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11 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I've mentioned before I'm suspicious of Fifth - I intend to do a more thorough analysis of Fifth's posts in particular later this cycle.

Kinda want to poke you just to see what your suspicions are, since our little feud is taking up a lot of threadspace :P I’d like to settle this sooner rather than later.

I’m very little of the way into my readover of the thread but have gotten far enough that I suspect Bort. I realize this looks like a complete 180, but hear me out. 

The vast majority of the first page is dominated by a huge Elandera-Bort-Wonko conversation. These are the relevant bits:

Elan: (RP criticizing tinkers)

Bort: (RP with a question for Elan, distancing?)

Steel: Squids, because squids.

Wonko: Clarifies questions from Elan, which is definitely distancing. Also does the same for Bort making me suspect more distancing. 

Bort: Pokes Wonko (distancing or joke vote, or both?)

Wonko: Falsely indignant reaction, reference to Chandrian song. Is either pocketing Bort or distancing. 

Bort: Says he’s never read KKC

Wonko: More novel-based clarification, again either distancing or pocketing

Bort: Question over whether he should vote Elan for insulting tinkers (directed at Wonko). At this point the length of the conversation is making me suspect distancing even more. 

Wonko: Says “I’m thinking about it” but doesn’t actually apply pressure

Bort: Joke post that almost reads as distancing a bit from Elan

Only at this point do I post and break the Bort/Wonko streak. I strongly suspect this entire first page was meant as a lighthearted way to subtly distance the Elims from each other. The sheer length of the Bort/Wonko exchange looks unnatural for an ostensibly normal conversation, and while pocketing is an option distancing is more likely, as Wonko doesn’t really seem to be trying to gain Bort’s trust and again the sheer length and strange style of the interaction makes me lean Elim on Bort. I recognize this would be a fairly gutsy play, but it is definitely something to consider, and is well within the range of possibility. 

This analysis does seem really tunnelly looking back at it but I suppose the way the interaction went just rubbed me the wrong way. Would someone better at analysis than me like to look over this?

Oh, and I suppose I should mention these posts which happened later in the cycle. These are copied directly from my notes so expect slight incoherence :P 

Wonko: responds to me a bit, “clarifies” if Elim team are Fae, pokes Bort with a vote (distancing?)

Orlok: Votes Wonko 

Bort: Defends his Wonko vote but retracts it anyway, puts vote on Elan (either good intuition or clever distancing)

Elan: Backtracks on earlier RP comments, pokes Eternum (who looks village, likely trying to deflect suspicion by poking inactive)

So another interaction heavy on a Elims and Bort’s in the middle of it again, with lots of distancing to go around. Fun!

(Someone please check my analysis it’s likely dead wrong)

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Hmmm...

I will move my vote over to Young Bard  for not removing his poke vote. I’m doing this because, seeing as Orlok isn’t a player, I think my current vote doesn’t count.   Orlok.

Edited by Walin
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Alev marched Neris all the way back to camp, keeping a firm grip on her hand to prevent any tricks. Alev relaxed her grip once the tents came in sight again, but tightened it when she felt Neris pulling away.

Why can’t Neris just follow orders? Alev grumbled to herself. Chances were that if Alev wasn’t careful, she’d just go back to that tree. Disobedient little child, just like Locke.

The thought of him gave Alev an idea, and she brightened. Children liked playing with each other, right?

Finally, they arrived at the perimeter of camp. “Stay here,” Alev said sternly. Then she approached Emre, who happened to be sitting nearby. Despite his age -- his hair was completely white, even his eyebrows -- he was the best singer they had.

“Heya Emre. Where’s Locke?” she asked. “I’m gonna get him and Neris to guard each other.”

“Could you repeat that name?” Emre asked. “I don’t think I heard that right.”

“You know, Locke,” Alev said more loudly. “Where is he?”

“Who?” Emre said.

Alev huffed. Emre must be having one of his forgetful spells. “Locke. Your grand-nephew. Small, cheeky, likes eavesdropping?”

He blinked in incomprehension. “I...I have a grand-nephew?”

Demonsin, he was absolutely useless. Alev went to find the next person.

“Where’s Locke?” she called to Berat.

“A lock? Dunno, I don’t have one,” he said.

“Locke the kid, not a lock and key lock,” Alev said testily. “Have you seen him?”

“...I don’t know who that is,” Berat said. His eyes held that same cloudy look of incomprehension.

“********!” Alev said. “I don’t have time for your jokes.” This was getting weird, and she didn’t like that. Had Neris put them up to this somehow? She whirled away and found Merta, Locke’s aunt, gathering firewood.

“Where the **** is Locke?” Alev yelled.

“Can you calm down a little?” Merta said. “I...don’t know that name.”

“Yes you do! Don’t **** with me! Where the hell is Locke?” Alev demanded.

Merta backed up a few steps. Her arms trembled a little. “I don’t know who you’re looking for,” she said.

Alev threw her hands into the air. “Loke! You know, little kid, likes sneaking around, voice of an angel,” she said. She gestured with her hands. “He’s about this tall, kinda short, red hair…” she paused. Try as she might, she couldn’t remember his face to well. And was his hair truly red, or did it only look like that when the sun struck it from the right angle? “Hazel eyes. Or green. You know.” God, she thought she was familiar with her troupemates. She’d lived with them for six years now, she ought to know everyone’s face.

Merta’s eyes looked strangely cloudy. “Are...are you sure you know him?” she asked gently. “Maybe just a lack of sleep?” Her voice grew more confident, convinced of her new theory. “Everybody knows you’ve been having nightmares Alev, we all hear you thrashing at night. It’s no shame if they’ve confused you a little, you know, mixed you up --”

“That’s my business and has nothing to do with this,” Alev snapped. “I did not ****ing make up Loke!” She frowned a little. “Oak. Bloke. Whatever.”

After all, she remembered catching him eavesdropping by the fire a couple of nights ago. With only the flickering light of the campfire to see by, she’d mistaken his small form for something else, something much more dangerous. And she heard them singing every day at the crack of dawn learning new songs -- there had been such a kerfluffle when they’d sang “Chandrian, Chandrian.” And yet...the more Alev tried to remember details, the harder it was to retrieve them. It was like trying to hold a cloud and seeing wisps of it trailing out of her fingers.

Was she really sure it had been Lan who’d been eavesdropping? It seemed far more characteristic of Neris, really.

Maybe Merta was right. Maybe the sleep deprivation was getting to Alev. “Sorry for yelling at you,” Alev said sheepishly. “Guess I was just in a bad mood.”

“That’s quite alright,” Merta said. “Did you find what you were looking for?”

Alev hefted the heavy padlock in her hands with a grim smile. “Oh yeah. Gonna see if threatening to chain Neris with this makes her any more obedient.”

Edited by Arraenae
I should proofread these things more
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7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Kinda want to poke you just to see what your suspicions are, since our little feud is taking up a lot of threadspace :P I’d like to settle this sooner rather than later.

I’m very little of the way into my readover of the thread but have gotten far enough that I suspect Bort. I realize this looks like a complete 180, but hear me out. 

The vast majority of the first page is dominated by a huge Elandera-Bort-Wonko conversation. These are the relevant bits:

Elan: (RP criticizing tinkers)

Bort: (RP with a question for Elan, distancing?)

Steel: Squids, because squids.

Wonko: Clarifies questions from Elan, which is definitely distancing. Also does the same for Bort making me suspect more distancing. 

Bort: Pokes Wonko (distancing or joke vote, or both?)

Wonko: Falsely indignant reaction, reference to Chandrian song. Is either pocketing Bort or distancing. 

Bort: Says he’s never read KKC

Wonko: More novel-based clarification, again either distancing or pocketing

Bort: Question over whether he should vote Elan for insulting tinkers (directed at Wonko). At this point the length of the conversation is making me suspect distancing even more. 

Wonko: Says “I’m thinking about it” but doesn’t actually apply pressure

Bort: Joke post that almost reads as distancing a bit from Elan

Only at this point do I post and break the Bort/Wonko streak. I strongly suspect this entire first page was meant as a lighthearted way to subtly distance the Elims from each other. The sheer length of the Bort/Wonko exchange looks unnatural for an ostensibly normal conversation, and while pocketing is an option distancing is more likely, as Wonko doesn’t really seem to be trying to gain Bort’s trust and again the sheer length and strange style of the interaction makes me lean Elim on Bort. I recognize this would be a fairly gutsy play, but it is definitely something to consider, and is well within the range of possibility. 

This analysis does seem really tunnelly looking back at it but I suppose the way the interaction went just rubbed me the wrong way. Would someone better at analysis than me like to look over this?

Oh, and I suppose I should mention these posts which happened later in the cycle. These are copied directly from my notes so expect slight incoherence :P 

Wonko: responds to me a bit, “clarifies” if Elim team are Fae, pokes Bort with a vote (distancing?)

Orlok: Votes Wonko 

Bort: Defends his Wonko vote but retracts it anyway, puts vote on Elan (either good intuition or clever distancing)

Elan: Backtracks on earlier RP comments, pokes Eternum (who looks village, likely trying to deflect suspicion by poking inactive)

So another interaction heavy on a Elims and Bort’s in the middle of it again, with lots of distancing to go around. Fun!

(Someone please check my analysis it’s likely dead wrong)

Or, rather than being something suspicious, that initial conversation could just have been Wonko showing off his KKC knowledge for someone who has never read the books.

I'll admit, it does seem to have been a bad choice of people to banter with, but how was I supposed to know they were both Elims? As for an "unnaturally long conversation," are we supposed to limit our interactions now? "Oh, sorry, I must move on. We've reached our banter quota for the day!" Not to mention that it would be pretty stupid of me to banter with two others who were both Eliminators, right at the start of day one where it will draw attention, if I were another Eliminator. do you not agree?

Also, it takes no effort to remove a vote from someone. No thought at all. So, why would I leave my vote on Elandera if I'm awake to see the end of the first cycle? Yes, I was sleepy at the time, having just woken up, which is why I didn't bother looking to redirect my vote, but simply removing it is easy. If I was an Eliminator, do you not think I'd have saved my teammate by simply retracting my vote? It might have drawn suspicions later in the game, if Elandera did finally die, but it would have saved a fairly major Eliminator role from being lynched on day one.

Also, if I were an Elim, why would I draw attention back to the cycle one lynch to joke about how Elandera really shouldn't have insulted the tinkers? Is that not just asking for trouble?

Edit:

@Fifth Scholar - Your entire accusation seems to be based around my interactions with Elandera and Wonko in cycle one, yet at the very start of your post, you say you want to settle things with Young Blood sooner rather than later. In that circumstance, why go after me, instead of doing what you state you want to do? You even say your little feud is taking up a lot of thread space, yet that seems to be one of the concerns you have about my conversation with Elandera and Wonko - the amount of thread space it took up.

I'd like to change my vote to Fifth Scholar please, for his illogical logic.

Edited by Bort
One last point...
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I was going to look at the people who voted for Steeldancer cycle 2 during cycle 3, but then I didn't, so I'll do it now. 

CadCom starts off by randomly voting for Wonko, though he changes that vote to Rae when the lynch votes were still spread out and kept it there. At the beginning of Cycle 2, he expressed surprise about the reference to six more Chandrians, believing that number indicate the remaining elims. It seems unlikely he would have tried this if he was in a doc with Wonko, who evidently has read the books. Later in the cycle, he put the third vote on Steeldancer before the votes on Wonko materialized, shortly after Rae's claim dissolved the lynch on Snipexe.

11 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

To be honest, all I have is reads as well. The two elim reads I have right now seem to be on everyone else's list, and have been read as anywhere from strong village to slight Elim.

The first is Bort: He had a lot of communication in-thread with Elandera and Wonko in C1 regarding tinkers. That seems like it could have been a tactic to just seem like they are all trying to have fun on D1, to go under the scrutiny radar. But I find it unlikely that 3 elims together would actually try communicating in thread, with each other. So, while I will be watching Bort, he is currently Neutral for me.

The other, of course is Rae. I can't remember the process I went through with her, but it ended up as putting her as neutral as well. Unfortunately I wasn't writing anything down at the time, so the notes are just mental notes.

Are Bort and Rae the two elim reads you refer to in your second sentence? You later classify them as neutral, which is not the same thing.

Xinoehp was the second vote on Steeldancer, coming with no explanation at a time when I had two votes and several other players had one. Cycle 3, Xinoehp voted for Bort and then didn't come back to see Wonko get lynched. That same cycle they apparently were part of a role swap with Orlok, which could potentially clear Xinoehp if that role was proven to at least one person in addition to Orlok. The same is true for everyone else who was involved in a role swap with Orlok last cycle.

Walin cast the first vote on Steeldancer, then didn't come back until the cycle was over. Unlike cycle 1, it didn't appear that his vote weight was set to zero, but we can't know for sure without knowing the roles of Steel's other three voters. Though he voted for Wonko last cycle, his name doesn't appear in the vote tally, suggesting he lost one of his three passes, which probably means he's going to die of inactivity when he misses the next two cycles due to loss of internet unless the GMs allow him to vote ahead of time. 

Arraenae was the last vote on Steeldancer, which ensured that Snipexe didn't get lynched. I'm still pretty sure that she and Snipexe are non-evil lovers, as I outlined at the very end of cycle 2.

This ended up taking far too much time without helping very much. I wouldn't vote for Rae. Walin and Xinoehp are on hold pending the results of their survival and role claim respectively. I'll look at CadCom again before the cycle ends and look at more recent events as well.

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11 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

**Long post about Bort.**

At first I had the same thoughts about Bort's interactions with Wonko and Elan. However, after a while, I decided it was unlikely that three people would talk so much in the main thread so early, if they all knew each other were elims. I decided it was more likely that the two were acting together, and Bort just so happened to be on at or near the same time. 

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I was going to look at the people who voted for Steeldancer cycle 2 during cycle 3, but then I didn't, so I'll do it now. 

CadCom starts off by randomly voting for Wonko, though he changes that vote to Rae when the lynch votes were still spread out and kept it there. At the beginning of Cycle 2, he expressed surprise about the reference to six more Chandrians, believing that number indicate the remaining elims. It seems unlikely he would have tried this if he was in a doc with Wonko, who evidently has read the books. Later in the cycle, he put the third vote on Steeldancer before the votes on Wonko materialized, shortly after Rae's claim dissolved the lynch on Snipexe.

***Quotes my Post***

Are Bort and Rae the two elim reads you refer to in your second sentence? You later classify them as neutral, which is not the same thing.

Oops, yes, those were the people. I guess I should proofread more often. So I started out by classifying them as slight elim, but as I finished my post, I decided that they felt more neutral, but worthy of watching. Rae had an elim read, before I switched it to Neutral after a more complete analysis of her posts. 

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Xinoehp was the second vote on Steeldancer, coming with no explanation at a time when I had two votes and several other players had one. Cycle 3, Xinoehp voted for Bort and then didn't come back to see Wonko get lynched. That same cycle they apparently were part of a role swap with Orlok, which could potentially clear Xinoehp if that role was proven to at least one person in addition to Orlok. The same is true for everyone else who was involved in a role swap with Orlok last cycle.

Walin cast the first vote on Steeldancer, then didn't come back until the cycle was over. Unlike cycle 1, it didn't appear that his vote weight was set to zero, but we can't know for sure without knowing the roles of Steel's other three voters. Though he voted for Wonko last cycle, his name doesn't appear in the vote tally, suggesting he lost one of his three passes, which probably means he's going to die of inactivity when he misses the next two cycles due to loss of internet unless the GMs allow him to vote ahead of time. 

Arraenae was the last vote on Steeldancer, which ensured that Snipexe didn't get lynched. I'm still pretty sure that she and Snipexe are non-evil lovers, as I outlined at the very end of cycle 2.

This ended up taking far too much time without helping very much. I wouldn't vote for Rae. Walin and Xinoehp are on hold pending the results of their survival and role claim respectively. I'll look at CadCom again before the cycle ends and look at more recent events as well.

As far as I noticed, no one else has put up an analysis of Xino, but xino was on my list of people to analyze, so thank you. I can add this to my analysis when I get around to it.

I now have a village read on Devotary. I don't think an elim would start a completely new analysis on someone new. It just seems like a move, that if it goes south, could cause too much scrutiny of the person who originally did the Analysis. So that's why I have a village read on Devotary.

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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5 hours ago, Bort said:

Or, rather than being something suspicious, that initial conversation could just have been Wonko showing off his KKC knowledge for someone who has never read the books.

I'll admit, it does seem to have been a bad choice of people to banter with, but how was I supposed to know they were both Elims? As for an "unnaturally long conversation," are we supposed to limit our interactions now? "Oh, sorry, I must move on. We've reached our banter quota for the day!" Not to mention that it would be pretty stupid of me to banter with two others who were both Eliminators, right at the start of day one where it will draw attention, if I were another Eliminator. do you not agree?

Also, it takes no effort to remove a vote from someone. No thought at all. So, why would I leave my vote on Elandera if I'm awake to see the end of the first cycle? Yes, I was sleepy at the time, having just woken up, which is why I didn't bother looking to redirect my vote, but simply removing it is easy. If I was an Eliminator, do you not think I'd have saved my teammate by simply retracting my vote? It might have drawn suspicions later in the game, if Elandera did finally die, but it would have saved a fairly major Eliminator role from being lynched on day one.

Also, if I were an Elim, why would I draw attention back to the cycle one lynch to joke about how Elandera really shouldn't have insulted the tinkers? Is that not just asking for trouble?

Edit:

@Fifth Scholar - Your entire accusation seems to be based around my interactions with Elandera and Wonko in cycle one, yet at the very start of your post, you say you want to settle things with Young Blood sooner rather than later. In that circumstance, why go after me, instead of doing what you state you want to do? You even say your little feud is taking up a lot of thread space, yet that seems to be one of the concerns you have about my conversation with Elandera and Wonko - the amount of thread space it took up.

I'd like to change my vote to Fifth Scholar please, for his illogical logic.

Not really going to respond to all this, but you do make fair points, Bort. Again, I’ve been reading through the thread and hadn’t gotten very far, so I just wanted to share some initial concerns I had, and get a response from you and a few others earlier rather than later in the cycle. My main issue was simply that I saw your conversation with Wonko as potential distancing, similar to the kind he did with Elandera. Now that you and now CadCom have brought up thoughtful points against it, I do feel marginally better about you, but I’m sure you’ll forgive me for not clearing you entirely, as was my initial reaction. 

Final bit- first of all, if you look at all the interactions between Bard and I, you’ll notice that Bard is continuously suspicious of me, but not vice versa. This is because I don’t really blame Bard for suspecting me, as I’ll admit my ties to Elandera aren’t looking the greatest, and I’m mainly just looking to clear up whatever he’s suspecting me of. Voting on him is counterproductive when I have no evidence to indicate his evilness, or lack thereof. Again, I went after you because I found the early interaction between you and Wonko strange and possibly suspicious. It’s mostly been cleared up. And the interaction was notable to me not only because of its length but also the long streak of posts where it was just the two of you. Bard and I have had a slower pace of interaction, if a slightly longer one. (I’ll poke @Young Bard again so we can finish this debate, hopefully.)

In short, I understand more fully now where you’re coming from, but I hope that you understand my perspective as well.

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Fifth Scholar. It's enough for me, thanks :)

I think one of the things about the early stage of any cycle in this game is that there aren't many of us on early. Most of our players are US-based, so at the start of the cycle, we pretty much just have the Europeans to talk to (not that I know if either Elandera or Wonko are European, but it's still pretty quiet until people start coming online). So, yeah, you're likely to see more interaction between a couple of people at the start of the cycle, before most players are out of bed, than later in the cycle, when more people are talking.

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So, unfortunately, I haven't done as much analysis as I would Like. But I saw that Elan voted for Arinian C1. The thing is that it was a late vote, only about an hour before rollover. I suspect that it was a distancing vote, and Elan wasn't suspecting to get lynched. But then they did. 

So because of that, plus Arinian's continuous behavior of voting for himself makes me believe he is elim. I really want to stay on to see if Arinian has time to react to this before Rollover, and possibly change my vote. But for now, Arinian, 

I don't want to get caught without a vote listed in case I cannot get on later tonight. 

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