Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[Kidpen]

36 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Yeah, I can reach out to that contact. Also, I'll just say here and now that Lopen's posts since I accused him and the PM I created with him last night have mostly assuaged me of that suspicion. I didn't say anything last night about this because I wanted to see what other people said and if anyone else jumped on Lopen with little reasoning beyond my case. I still agree there was a weird tone with that Araris post, but him being Jeskeri is not the only explanation for it so I currently am choosing to look elsewhere.

Edit: one thing I'd like discussed is the possibility of at least one Jeskeri Elantrian. Yes, Aman was a priest and yes he had only been poisoned, but that makes him not a threat to non-Elantrians for at least another cycle. Yet they killed him on his first night in Elantris. Why? I think it's because he was still a threat to them. Which means there is a Jeskeri Elantrian (or two, depending on if one got taken by the Shaod/poisoned). This fits with LG12, where there was a starting Jeskeri Elantrian.

Droughtbringer voted for HH randomly last day.

[Steeldancer]

I looked around, yawning from my nap. 
"I'm sorry, I kind of fell asleep." 
I was about to ask what had happened when I saw the body of the priest. Well, I had seen that coming. Best to look for more evidence. 
I consulted my notebook, and indeed, I had several people marked as suspicious. One was in Elantris. One had not spoken for a while. 
In fact, too many people had not spoken for a while. The silence was deafening, and made me want to start kicking their shins just to hear a little noise. I growled, "Would you all speak up? Otherwise I'll have to start calling you out by name." 
I decided I needed to go over the evidence again, before making another formal accusation. I formed Aon Bob, and zipped off across the city, trenchcoat flaring. 
 

[little wilson]

1 hour ago, Kidpen said:

Droughtbringer voted for HH randomly last day.

I've just asked Drought about that. His vote was Prince'd.

[STINK]

Mint was near outraged. He'd merely slept a little longer than usual after having a near demonic possession happen to him, and he wakes up to nothing but death! Clearly, no one here knows how to treat royalty.

But what was he to do today? He'd tried holding a session of court, and clearly no one here even knew what that is based on the lack of responses to that. Had anyone even come to look at the art that he had actually spent something on? Well, that part of it doesn't matter as much, but it still rankles Mint.

Mint honestly had no idea what was going on, but was too distracted by his royal duties to read through some very lovely notes (from that now deceased Archivist) and some very scribbled ones (Mint did not know where they came from). Take note everyone, this is why you do not get into the habit of sleeping. Especially when you're made of sugar.

[Kidpen]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

I've just asked Drought about that. His vote was Prince'd.

Lope, I assume this wasn't you?

[Elenion]

I'm struggling to find something to talk about that I haven't already voiced opinions on, so I'm going to poke-vote Joe.

@A Joe in the Bush, do you think that the Gyorn has sworn an Odiv yet? And why do you think that Eternum was killed?

[Dalinar Kholin]

3 hours ago, little wilson said:

Yeah, I can reach out to that contact. Also, I'll just say here and now that Lopen's posts since I accused him and the PM I created with him last night have mostly assuaged me of that suspicion. I didn't say anything last night about this because I wanted to see what other people said and if anyone else jumped on Lopen with little reasoning beyond my case. I still agree there was a weird tone with that Araris post, but him being Jeskeri is not the only explanation for it so I currently am choosing to look elsewhere.

Edit: one thing I'd like discussed is the possibility of at least one Jeskeri Elantrian. Yes, Aman was a priest and yes he had only been poisoned, but that makes him not a threat to non-Elantrians for at least another cycle. Yet they killed him on his first night in Elantris. Why? I think it's because he was still a threat to them. Which means there is a Jeskeri Elantrian (or two, depending on if one got taken by the Shaod/poisoned). This fits with LG12, where there was a starting Jeskeri Elantrian.

Okay, who all is in Elantris right now? I looked back, and all I could find was Arinian and HH, nobody got taken today. Did anyone start there? I think it'd make more sense that no elim was in there in the first place, thus they send him to Elantris to get his scans out of the way. Then, chance makes an elim get sent there as well on the same day. That'd explain why they sent him there in the first place. To be fair though, Aman was confirmed good, and going to be coming back anways. They could have just wanted him out of the main thread and out of the way of scanning them.

I think it's definitely worth taking a closer look at HH and Arinian. I wasn't active day one/night one say I can't comment on them off the top of my head :/ Thoughts?

[Elenion]

7 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Okay, who all is in Elantris right now? I looked back, and all I could find was Arinian and HH, nobody got taken today. Did anyone start there? I think it'd make more sense that no elim was in there in the first place, thus they send him to Elantris to get his scans out of the way. Then, chance makes an elim get sent there as well on the same day. That'd explain why they sent him there in the first place. To be fair though, Aman was confirmed good, and going to be coming back anways. They could have just wanted him out of the main thread and out of the way of scanning them.

I think it's definitely worth taking a closer look at HH and Arinian. I wasn't active day one/night one say I can't comment on them off the top of my head :/ Thoughts?

Right now I'm seeing Cadmium Compounder (can we call him CadCom?), Drought, Kynedath/Jondesu, Arinian, and HH. Arinian and HH were Shaod (or poison), and the first three started there IIRC. I'm thinking that there might be a Jeskeri Elantrian, because otherwise the only way that the Jeskeri could know what was going on in Elantris would be to poison one of their own, trust the word of a village Elantrian, or wait for the Shaod to take one of them.

I think I might have had a slight village toneread on Arin before he went to Elantris, but it's not like we've been getting lots of posts from him to get reads on. HH I have no read on.

[Walin]

Ok, I’ve got little analysis to share. TheMightyLopen and Eenion led discussion earlier in the day, and the arguments were well-thought out, though didn’t seem like they were made in collusion. So if either one of them is a certain faction, we can probably know the other is of a different faction.

I don’t have much else to add other than simple observation.

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

I'm struggling to find something to talk about that I haven't already voiced opinions on, so I'm going to poke-vote Joe.

@A Joe in the Bush, do you think that the Gyorn has sworn an Odiv yet? And why do you think that Eternum was killed?

Eternum? I don't know. I do think an Odiv has been sworn, i don't see a good reason not to have sworn one by now.

Also, while i am online, i used a Korathi Pendant to ask if Seonid was aligned with Arelon, and got it confirmed he was.

I'm sorry for being so quiet lately. Lots of things are catching up with me, including suddenly having family over. I'll be back to my old activity in several days.

[Elenion]

Just now, A Joe in the Bush said:

Eternum? I don't know. I do think an Odiv has been sworn, i don't see a good reason not to have sworn one by now.

Also, while i am online, i used a Korathi Pendant to ask if Seonid was aligned with Arelon, and got it confirmed he was.

I'm sorry for being so quiet lately. Lots of things are catching up with me, including suddenly having family over. I'll be back to my old activity in several days.

Thanks for checking in and voicing your thoughts, Joe.

[TheMightyLopen]

6 hours ago, little wilson said:

Yeah, I can reach out to that contact. Also, I'll just say here and now that Lopen's posts since I accused him and the PM I created with him last night have mostly assuaged me of that suspicion. I didn't say anything last night about this because I wanted to see what other people said and if anyone else jumped on Lopen with little reasoning beyond my case. I still agree there was a weird tone with that Araris post, but him being Jeskeri is not the only explanation for it so I currently am choosing to look elsewhere.

Edit: one thing I'd like discussed is the possibility of at least one Jeskeri Elantrian. Yes, Aman was a priest and yes he had only been poisoned, but that makes him not a threat to non-Elantrians for at least another cycle. Yet they killed him on his first night in Elantris. Why? I think it's because he was still a threat to them. Which means there is a Jeskeri Elantrian (or two, depending on if one got taken by the Shaod/poisoned). This fits with LG12, where there was a starting Jeskeri Elantrian.

Cool, thanks. Hopefully I can help lynch an eliminator this Cycle and clear my name(at least mostly).

Yeah, I've mostly been ignoring them, since I have no idea how to try and figure out their alignments. I did mention I thought HH's vote switch to Rand seemed kinda shady, so he'd be my first guess, but that's not exactly in line with your point that one of the starting Elantrians might be Jeskeri. Between those 3, I've no idea. I PM'd Drought on N1 and he said he hadn't even read the thread, which was a little strange I thought. But that's all I've got.

3 hours ago, Kidpen said:

Lope, I assume this wasn't you?

Yeah, I moved King Cole's vote, so it wasn't me.

2 hours ago, Walin said:

Ok, I’ve got little analysis to share. TheMightyLopen and Eenion led discussion earlier in the day, and the arguments were well-thought out, though didn’t seem like they were made in collusion. So if either one of them is a certain faction, we can probably know the other is of a different faction.

I don’t have much else to add other than simple observation.

I disagree with this logic. You leave out the possibility that we're both villagers with this line of reasoning, because 2 villagers don't know the other is in their faction, so they're not going to 'collude' as you put it. Not too suspicious of you for this, but wanted to point that out.

[TheMightyLopen]

We need some votes people! I know I haven't voted yet, but that's partly because my biggest suspicion was just killed and turned out to be village, so I wanted to go back over things. I guess I can do some of that now. 

My village reads include: Wilson, Dalinar, Walin, Seonid(not sure about Joe, so am a little skeptical about his claim of scanning Seonid, but I did like Seonid's willingness to be a participant in the D1 lynch), and Elenion. I still have slight village reads on King Cole, Mraize, Pyro, and Kidpen.

Everyone else is basically neutral, so those are the players I will look over now, starting from the top of the player list and going down.

1. Joe

Spoiler

First thing he mentions is that he's an eliminator with Kidpen and Pyro(so I'm pretty sure we should kill at least one of these just to be safe ). He also posts a plan to get rid of all of the Derethi Pendants, which didn't happen. He agreed with Len's plan to use the Jeskeri Pendants to kill inactives(at this point I might suggest hitting some low actives, since I don't think we have any entirely inactive people). Mostly RP's for a while, then puts a vote on Araris saying he thinks he might be the Gyorn. There were only 2 votes at the time, so putting a vote on a teammate would be a little risky, but Joe isn't known for being cautious, so who knows?  If it was basically anyone else, I'd think they were probably village, but I have hard time trusting Joe, so it'll take more than this to convince me. Joe says he's keeping his vote on Araris because there's nothing else suspicious. Joe says he doesn't like the lynch on Bort, so again, he's keeping his vote on Araris. Steel accuses Joe of being evil with Araris, and Joe reminds him he had his vote on Araris all of Day 1. Joe says he thinks Aman might have scanned him or Eternum, since he was thinking about killing either of them(I feel like he wouldn't have mentioned you two as possible kill targets if he was gonna scan one of you, but that's just me). No posts in between that one and the one up above about scanning Seonid. He's obviously been busy with his QF and apparently family coming over, so I can't blame him for that. Overall, I'd say I'm feeling paranoid about Joe and definitely need more stuff to go off of before I feel comfortable making a decision either way. The voting on Araris and being open about using a Korathi Pendant seems villager-y, but it could have easily been distancing between him and Araris and he used his Pendant directly after Aman(a Priest) was killed.

2. Steeldancer

Spoiler

First discussion post he suggest we use the Jeskeri Pendants on players we're suspicious of being Cultists, and the Derethi Pendants to try and search for the Gyorn(I like this suggestion more than targeting inactives, so village points for this post!). He thought it was suspicious that most discussion on Day 1 was centered around the Derethi instead of the Jeskeri. Joe responds he doesn't have any strategy for finding the Jeskeri but he does for finding the Derethi, which Steel accepts as good enough reason to let discussion continue as it was. I felt this could have been Steel trying to get village points by pointing out there wasn't much discussion about the Jeskeri but not actually getting discussion back to them, which is why I've continually put Steel as suspicious. I still think that's possible, but I don't think it's quite as suspicious as I used to. I pointed all of this out to Steel, so he responded explaining his point of view. He posted later and voted on Joe, saying he got an evil vibe from him(translated from RP). He removed his vote from Joe, but I'm not exactly sure why? Based on the RP, maybe Joe PM'd Steel? One thing to note is that Steel never got involved at all in the discussion about Bort or Randuir. I understand he's posting only in RP, which I'm sure is extremely tough, but I do think it's a little suspicious. Steel states suspicion of Arinian. I'm getting pretty tired at this point, so to sum up, it seems Steel is still suspicious of both Arinian and Joe. Something I'm considering is that when Joe reminded Steel that he'd voted for Araris, Steel said he hadn't remembered that. If he was an eliminator, I feel like there would have been some discussion about it in the elim doc, so he probably would have included that fact in his initial accusation of Joe and worked around it, as he did in his response post to Joe after Joe reminds him of that fact. It's a little tenuous, but I think I'm actually leaning slightly village for Steel after all of this.

3. Straw

Spoiler

I initially had a village read on Straw(can't remember why), but looking back over his posts, I'm a little concerned. He hasn't given much, if any, reasons for his vote changes, and the last time he posted was simply a vote on Araris and nothing else. @Straw, what's going on? You're very quiet this time around. Just going to add, he was last online 3 hours ago according to the site, so it's not like he's been gone entirely.

I'm gonna take a break now. Here's who's left: Devotary(already reviewed actually, so keeping him as Neutral: need more stuff to analyze), Drake, Stink, and I guess I'll add Arinian and HH as well, since they weren't Elantrians to begin with.

I'll place my vote on Straw, but please don't everyone bandwagon on him. That's happened to him enough, and we really do NOT need a bandwagon lynch this Cycle. We need multiple, viable lynch targets on players we can't figure out to give us the best odds of hitting an eliminator.

[Kidpen]

I'm gonna hold off on voting until I get a PM response. Of those three however, I will say that your case for joe is the most convincing.

[Lord Meeker]

This helps so much lopen. I will ore tomorrow as I am on moble and still don't know how to make it change colors!

[Elenion]

7 hours ago, Walin said:

Ok, I’ve got little analysis to share. TheMightyLopen and Eenion led discussion earlier in the day, and the arguments were well-thought out, though didn’t seem like they were made in collusion. So if either one of them is a certain faction, we can probably know the other is of a different faction.

I don’t have much else to add other than simple observation.

Lopen pointed this out, but I disagree with his response because this reminds me of something I did once as an elim. What I did was I used "Lopen or Aman is an elim", because they were at each other's throats, and when one of them died as village I could push a mislynch on the other. Walin might be setting a similar thing up here: once Lopen or I die, by lynch or elim kill, he can use that to throw suspicion on the other of us. Walin. This is the best lead I have right now; hopefully I can get something better.

[Walin]

So far, Lopen and Elenion have mentioned my last post. One explanation of the post I have is: I was assuming at least one of them had a doc, but I had forgotten that both could be villagers. Secondly, even if they are in a faction together, the discussion didn't have to be colluded.

However, there is a counterpoint to the fact that being villagers precludes collusion: PM's. However, that's not in my favor. Regardless of faction, there could still be talking going on, and my post has no implications on anyone but me.

I'm not saying there was collusion on that discussion, and now I think there wasn't any (and thanks to both of you for responding to it directly); the point of this right here is to reveal how little information I factored into my statement.

------------------

I don't know who to vote on. Lopen's analysis is thorough, and right now I'm finding an even likelihood of elim-ness between each of the three. I think I'm going to look at the responses to these paragraphs, and for right now put a bit of suspicion on...never mind. I don't have enough suspicion to say any names.

[Elenion]

17 minutes ago, Walin said:

I don't know who to vote on. Lopen's analysis is thorough, and right now I'm finding an even likelihood of elim-ness between each of the three. I think I'm going to look at the responses to these paragraphs, and for right now put a bit of suspicion on...never mind. I don't have enough suspicion to say any names.

Why are you finding an even likelihood of elim-ness between the 3 if you agree with Lopen's analysis? Lopen put Steel as slightly village, Joe as neutral and paranoid, and Straw as slightly elim-y. Those ware 3 different likelihoods of elim-ness.

[Steeldancer]

I looked out and committed to my accusation. “Arinian!”.

[Straw]

Hmm... sorry about my inactivity. I’ll formulate a reply when I next can, but I’ll be busy for the next ten hours.

[Kidpen]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I looked out and committed to my accusation. “Arinian!”.

Why?

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Kidpen said:

Why?

I held up my notebook. “Look at all the bad grammar! Also, when reading day one, I feel like Arinian is in on something with Araris. It’s my gut, but when you’re on the street you learn to trust your gut. He just happens to go to Elantris? I don’t think so. I think it was an attempt to dodge suspicion.” 

[Steeldancer]

I looked about. EVERYONE WAS SLEEPING. I mean, some of them had given legitimate excuses, but other people were just sleeping! "Aren't we supposed to be a mob or something? Literally 2 accusations have been thrown out. It would be SO EASY for the jeskeri to control the lynch when nobody has voted! WAKE UP!"
 

...

 

An hour later, nobody had gotten up. Fine then. They had forced my hand.
---

A few minutes after that, I had dragged a wagon full of rotten eggs, and dumped it out in the middle of the square.  " @King Cole, @The Honey Badger, @Dalinar Kholin, @Seonid, I haven't heard from you in a long time, along with Fenot. But at least Fenot has given a reason, he's sick! And the rest of you who have actually posted- please contribute! This town seriously cannot be led by a gritty corrupt detective. So get up, or smell rotten eggs!"

 Sorry for the double post but I felt this was needed. 

[little wilson]

Steel, Badger dropped out. Walin took his spot. : P

As for suspicions/votes. Um. I'm not sure. About Arin, he poisoned himself, from what Aman told me when I contacted him. Can you be more specific about his ties to Araris that you're seeing?

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Steel, Badger dropped out. Walin took his spot. : P

As for suspicions/votes. Um. I'm not sure. About Arin, he poisoned himself, from what Aman told me when I contacted him. Can you be more specific about his ties to Araris that you're seeing?

Ah right. Mainly its this gut feeling when I look at their posts at each other, and the fact that Arinian was acting super shifty. I would explain more right now, but I really need to get ready to go to work.