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Posted

Rules clarification: passing investiture and shards can be done in any cycle

Posted
24 minutes ago, Seonid said:

It is possible for a shard's win condition to cause new end of game conditions

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window.

But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

Posted
28 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Last post continued

If we eliminate Odium and free nice shards, we are able to have any and all nice/neutral shards reveal themselves, and we can support their win cons in exchange for them helping us find the elims.  Also, Odium, if you blow up Cultivation I will hunt you down.  5th Scholar already promised the same.  Go after other shards first, pass Odium, or return it please.

Thinking on this, I’m not sure Cultivation helps the village significantly. I’d be surprised if Hoid and Khriss didn’t convert during N0, given the advantages a convert gives them in their ability to take Shards N1. That being the case, both Hoid and Khriss have pretty good shots at Cultivation in the coming night cycle. As such, we could well end up in a situation where nearly all our PM access comes from an eliminator team, which strikes me as a situation ripe for manipulation.

I’m not sure what can really be done about this. Khriss’ team should be able to take two investiture from Cultivation, and the same from Hoid, although Hoid can lower the requirement to two. We’re unlikely to get enough villagers going for Cultivation today to give us a significantly greater likelihood of holding it than that of Hoid or Khriss - even with four villagers, we have only an even chance. 

One option might be for all villagers to refrain from taking Cultivation’s investiture, to give us certainty that it’s held by an eliminator. If Cultivation is released, they won’t get investiture anyway, and I think there’s a high chance that Cultivation is used to manipulate the village. That said, I do think this requires far too much cooperation to be plausible, and I don’t like the idea of restricting players’ choice, so would just advise wariness from players contacted by Cultivation, or indeed players placed in any PM.

Posted
44 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Also, Odium, if you blow up Cultivation I will hunt you down.  5th Scholar already promised the same.  Go after other shards first, pass Odium, or return it please.

 

3 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

There is the fact that you could Roshar-exchange investiture for Cultivation's.  That is what I am attempting to do.

Right, hence “nearly all”.

I am interested in the apparent change in tone between these two posts, though. You first indicate reliance or desire to keep Cultivation alive. After I point out the likelihood that it’s used for manipulation, you profess total lack of reliance on it. Would you explain your views in the first post I quoted?

Posted
10 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

This reads kinda off to me. You say you doubt we should be lynching either of them then go ahead and place a vote on one of them yourself, almost as if you want at least of them lynched, even if it is for no substantial reason. 

Jondesu: overall, I'm leaning village here, but not strongly. 47%

Yeah, that's not exactly odd.  I was perfectly okay with a lynch happening, and I wasn't going to place a vote on someone random, so I figured I could throw in on the one I felt was more likely, but since we know now we can vote No Lynch, that's my personal preference this game.  It's not a standard Elim setup, so our odds of hitting someone that will benefit us to kill are ridiculously low, and will grow with time, so skipping a first-cycle lynch is beneficial.

Posted
On 3/17/2018 at 5:50 PM, TheYoungPyromancer said:

We could go Roshar, but others will probably go there.  We could go Taladain, to try to see if Hoid/Khriss goes there.  Honestly, I just want a charge of investiture first to convert if necessary.  Seonid is saying all my cool ideas don't work.:(

 

1 hour ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I am going to PM someone, probably using RNG, and trust them.  Then, I am going to ask them for advice.  That is literally my plan.  I am under suspicion day 1, and apparently my theory of being hard-to-read isn't working.  I just need a cycle or two to PM someone and ask their advice.  Question my playstyle all you want then.

If you don't have a charge of Investiture now, then you won't be able to create a PM until day 3, or night 2 if you happen to get Cultivation. Since you are now claiming that you do have a charge of Investiture, apparently I misinterpreted your earlier post.

42 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

If we eliminate Odium and free nice shards, we are able to have any and all nice/neutral shards reveal themselves, and we can support their win cons in exchange for them helping us find the elims.

Odium cannot be eliminated. If his Vessel dies, the Shard passes to another player. Unlike all the other Shards, he can't even be Shattered.

57 minutes ago, Megasif said:

In regards to hoid and khriss, I can't recall it being mentioned anywhere that they are indeed enemies to one another as well.

Hoid and Khriss are enemies in that they can't win together. Both of them have win conditions of having their faction outnumber all other living players.

 

We're almost 5/6 of the way through the cycle, and there are only five votes. For right now, I'm going to drop a vote on Hemalurgic Headshot. He expressed suspicion of TheYoungPyromancer for:

10 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

You either repeat a previously stated opinion, in a brief sentence or two, or make a statement, equally brief. Also, that spiel on page three? What purpose did that have? Though probably harmless, it looks a little strange.

Later in that same post, he was wary of Fifth Scholar for reasons that he later claimed were:

6 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

 I just wanted to express my agreement with what had been previously said concerning your behavior. You aren't seeming particularly suspicious to me besides that, but it was something to note.

He has also expressed uncertainty about lynching today due to the possibility of hitting a Vessel, before (incorrectly) claiming that Odium and Ruin are the only sources of night kills for the village. While none of this is necessarily indicative of an eliminator rather than a villager pressed for time, I would like @Hemalurgic Headshot to respond.

Posted
Just now, Jondesu said:

Yeah, that's not exactly odd.  I was perfectly okay with a lynch happening, and I wasn't going to place a vote on someone random, so I figured I could throw in on the one I felt was more likely, but since we know now we can vote No Lynch, that's my personal preference this game.  It's not a standard Elim setup, so our odds of hitting someone that will benefit us to kill are ridiculously low, and will grow with time, so skipping a first-cycle lynch is beneficial.

I’m not sure that I agree with your assessment. Our odds are likely already 4/22, and will only grow to a maximum of 6/22. Not lynching this cycle on those odds seems strange, when we’ve had games starting with a similar eliminator ratio.

Posted

We can make do without Culty, I just don't think we should.  I want to keep Cultivation alive for another reason that I cannot say in-thread.  I believe that the "Eliminators" in this game are actually less of a threat then the Shards.  No, just because I said this doesn't mean I'm bad.  I'm just concerned that we will overlook the side with kills.  The elims have a small number of converts, and without Odium's investiture, it is really hard to kill in this game.  Hence we should focus on cleaning up the rest of this mess first.  Devotary, you actually misinterpreted my OTHER post.  I do not have any investiture :(

Posted (edited)

Pyromancer, sorry to say this, but we can’t kill Odium. He will simply change Vessels every time his current Vessel is lynched or killed. The only way to stop him is to pass him to Hoid, which is a terrible idea. But I kind of agree with Orlok that we’ve been talking too much about Odium, and not enough about lynching. 

So I’d like to talk about who we should lynch. The number of current lynch targets I’m currently OK with is 1: Drought. But I have nothing more than mild suspicion of him, and so I’d like to move to the person I actually would like to lynch: Hemalurgic Headshot. Not only would I like my Odium gloves back, which he received for a fraction of the initial cost, but HH seems a little suspicious. Behold his posts from this cycle:

Quote

Why those three? It just sounds like a terrible, terrible, awesome, terrible recipe for disaster. Odium and Ruin will most likely begin causing havoc. Autonomy has some very good abilities for the village. I'm really just repeating what has been said before by Mage and Straw. 

And I'd find it hilarious if Steeldancer got his wish. And slightly frightening.

----

And now it's the D1 lynch! Yet again, it is do, or do not.

I'd suppose that Hoid and Krissala have taken advantage of their conversion ability and there are more Elims now than were before. Additionally, there are three Vessels running around. Assuming four total Elims and three Vessels, there is a roughly 1/3 chance that we will lynch someone special. Lynching a Vessel wouldn't be as fun though, because then the Shard would just get passed to someone else, maybe even an Elim, and it would be more difficult to get it back into containment.

Ant more thoughts on D1 lynch?

Everything above the line is NAI fluff. He admits it, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s NAI fluff.

Everything below the line, I’d argue, is mostly NAI fluff. It’s simply disguised as game talk, and as Elbereth pointed out, having NAI game talk (should we lynch or not? Etc,etc) tends not to help the village. He then does some probability, running the odds of us hitting “someone special” with the lynch by random chance. The only noteworthy thing I can get from this post is that he believes that both Hoid and Khriss converted. Perhaps he knows this because he is a convert/Hoid/Khriss? A bit tinfoil-y, but still a very real possibility. Oh, and he seems to support putting Shards back into containment if possible, which, as I’ve stated before, I think is a bad idea. 

Quote

Looks like you'll just need to find the current Vessel and... take it off their hands?

And what do you think about the lynch? Statistically, as always, there is a very high chance of hitting a villager. At the most, there are only four Elims, and there are three Vessels. Its highly unlikely we'll hit an Elim, and hitting a Vessel will just transfer the Shard to someone else, possibly an Elim. This is a question of pros and cons.

Do we want to risk a village death (hopefully harmless), or a Vessel death (with the dangerous possibility of falling into enemy hands) for the chance of killing an Elim? And of those four Elims, there's a 50/50 chance of hitting Hoid or Krissala.

 

 

 

First paragraph is a pun, which I fully support. Soft-claiming Odium, too, perhaps?

Second paragraph, he again brings up the NAI discussion of whether or not to have the D1 lynch. He seems to hedge against it, saying “there is a very high chance of hitting a villager” and “at the most, there are only four Elims.” What he fails to mention is that the villager:elim ratio is similar to most games, and that lynching causes discussion and lets the village get reads on people. Perhaps he wishes to stall one of the only means for the village to get a kill? I can definitely see an Elim arguing for a no lynch just to stop the village from using its kill. 

Third paragraph is a giant rhetorical question essentially summing up his second paragraph, and mainly adds length to his post.

Quote

I was mainly phrasing it as a rhetorical question. I don't have many other answers for you, because, yes, without Odium or Ruin the lynch is the last option for village kills.

I didn't know that they only had two conversions. I had assumed they would want to act early so they could have more options and have a teammate early on. 

First paragraph doesn’t say much, although HH does acknowledge El’s point that the lynch is one of our only kill methods. 

Second paragraph attempts to justify his assumption that Hoid and Khriss used their conversions. This is NAI, as I could see a villager or Elim saying this. However, it doesn’t say much, so I retain a minute amount of suspicion from this post.

Quote

Well, being NAI is better than being Elim, correct? That stands on its own. 

Thank you. It completely slipped my mind.

 

This entire post, talking about NAI, is completely NAI. Well, the first part actually sounds a bit Elim-y: as Elbereth points out, not having a read one way or another on a player who has posted as frequently as HH has this game isn’t good simply on the basis that said person should have said something analyzable, at this point, especially since most of the discussion HH has been creating is NAI. So, slight Elim read from this post.

Quote

Ah, YoungPyro. If you weren't a new player, I wouldn't be so reluctant to push suspicions of you. But truthfully, your posts have given me a bad gut read. You have posted a LOT, but not very much was necessarily relevant. You either repeat a previously stated opinion, in a brief sentence or two, or make a statement, equally brief. Also, that spiel on page three? What purpose did that have? Though probably harmless, it looks a little strange.

5th is also suspicious, as everyone above has stated, for above-average interest in the release of Odium. Though his point that he is most likely not Odium is sound, it does not ignore the possibilities that he could be distracting us to protect his own interests.

I agree with HH’s assessment of Pyro; however, this statement is somewhat hypocritical. Having brought up many NAI points throughout the game, and pushing discussion that is generally NAI, HH states suspicion of Pyro for not saying much in their posts, or agreeing with people preceding them. What does he then proceed to do? Call me out for the same thing Pyro did, and add basically nothing new. So while this post doesn’t necessarily indicate evilness, it does stink somewhat of hypocrisy, in addition to not adding much new to the thread other than discussion on Pyro which went basically nowhere. 

Quote

@Fifth Scholar There aren't any other things on which I'm feeling suspicious about you, I just wanted to express my agreement with what had been previously said concerning your behavior. You aren't seeming particularly suspicious to me besides that, but it was something to note.

Here HH reiterates his concerns of my supposed Odium focus, and admits his argument was derived from previous players. This gives me a very slight village vibe.

Quote

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window.

But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

This post bothers me. A lot. First of all, where have we “carefully planned” what to do with the newly released Shards? Perhaps a better question is, where have you? In an Eliminator doc, perhaps? And how does this revelation add anything huge right now, or disrupt any plans for this cycle? Odds are none of the Shards will get new win cons for a turn or two. Second, your rhetorical question provoked discussion on something NAI, again. And it’s also pure speculation, unless someone comes forward and admits that they’re Odium or Ruin. So this post helped nobody. 

@Elbereth @Orlok Tsubodai Would either of you mind switching your vote to HH?

Edit: All the ninjas

Edited by Fifth Scholar
Posted

@Seonid, if someone held a shard, and was converted to that shard's wincon, and then got another Shard, would they be immune to that Shard's conversion?

If so, then Odium would just need to go to a shardholder. 

Actually, Odium going to Hoid would be GREAT!  Hoid cannot make any kill actions, and if he has 1 teammate, if he passed it to them they would be converted.  Well I guess it wouldn't be great, but it would be okay.

Posted
1 hour ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

We can make do without Culty, I just don't think we should.  I want to keep Cultivation alive for another reason that I cannot say in-thread.  I believe that the "Eliminators" in this game are actually less of a threat then the Shards.  No, just because I said this doesn't mean I'm bad.  I'm just concerned that we will overlook the side with kills.  The elims have a small number of converts, and without Odium's investiture, it is really hard to kill in this game.  Hence we should focus on cleaning up the rest of this mess first.  Devotary, you actually misinterpreted my OTHER post.  I do not have any investiture :(

Would you state your reasoning for wanting Cultivation alive in a PM?

I’m not sure why you consider the conversion factions a lesser threat than Shards. The Shards work independently, rather than in concert, are much less likely to have anti-village win conditions if they ever acquire them, and aren’t the only sources of kills. We’ve only had one true serial killer victory if Steeldancer is correct, with Mage and my victories being in no small part the results of overpowered roles. Conversion factions can handpick their teams, and it’s entirely possible that they can handpick their Shards as we move later into the game. 

Your thoughts on the potential of a Cultivation to manipulate the village?

Which Shard did you go for last cycle in order to now have no investiture?

@Fifth Scholar, I’d first address the point you made about Headshot believing two conversions occurred. I agree with Headshot entirely on this. Although sacrificing the potential of receiving a Shard N0, Hoid and Khriss both dramatically increase their ability to take Shards N1 through converting N0 (and Hoid particularly). They also alleviate the risk of the D1 lynch hitting them, and wiping out their entire faction. 

I think for now I’m going to vote for Jondesu. @Jondesu is downplaying the likelihood of success of this lynch in a way that strikes me as suspicious, given we’ve had games with a similar ratio of eliminators before, and given the ratio will only increase from 4/22 to 6/22.

Posted
2 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

1. Yes

2. They both can only convert twice.  Plus, Shards are immune to Hoid + Khriss's conversions(I think)

3. Everyone just is more suspicious about PMs than normal

4. Autonomy

Also, see 2

If you’re happy revealing your plan in a PM, why wouldn’t you reveal it in the thread? Anyone could PM you, making them no less secure than the thread. Why restrict that information?

With both of them converting, that gives six eliminators, and an overall percentage of eliminators at 27% - much higher than normal games. I’d imagine they’re converting early, which reduces the likelihood of them hitting Shards.

I provided good reasons for that in my earlier post. If the eliminators acquire Cultivation, they’re able to use it to great effect for manipulation through controlling the majority of PMs in the game.

Posted (edited)

I am not willing to reveal it to everybody.  I am willing to reveal it to maybe 1 or 2 people.  If you knew my reason, you would know why I wouldn't want it revealed.  It isn't really a big reason anyways.  More of a "Possible out in a bad situation".  Wait.  I think the reason might be invalid.  Let me check.

Yeah I misread the rules. Never mind.

Edited by TheYoungPyromancer
Posted
2 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I am not willing to reveal it to everybody.  I am willing to reveal it to maybe 1 or 2 people.  If you knew my reason, you would know why I wouldn't want it revealed.  It isn't really a big reason anyways.  More of a "Possible out in a bad situation".  Wait.  I think the reason might be invalid.  Let me check.

Yeah I misread the rules. Never mind.

Would you care to reveal it, then, if your reason for withholding it is invalid?

Posted

I hate it when I feel behind in a game. I was hanging out with my family over Spring Break, so I haven't been paying too much attention to this thread. However, I'm surprised to see a lack of discussion when it comes to world-hopping. We have two main options.

  1. We all stay in Silverlight, attempting to get more Investiture and Shards. The downside from this is obvious. This gives the conversion teams a large variety of people to convert, which is something we don't want happening. In addition, it is very difficult to put a Shard back into containment after it leaves, which helps Hoid and Khriss with their sudden death conditions. I know people want Shards, but having them free isn't necessarily a good thing.
  2. We start spreading out. Everyone probably has 1 use of investiture, right? That's enough to take one action, which is fine. In addition, we can always exchange the type we have by going to Roshar. That is a fair amount of power, even if it seems boring compared to having Shards. It also blocks Hoid and Khriss from converting from a large pool.

I propose we head out to the various worlds. We can pop back in to Silverlight if we run out of Investiture, while preventing more conversions. I'm curious to see your thoughts on the matter. Having no consensus will probably mean most people staying, which as I outlined is problematic to the village.

Posted
16 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I am not willing to reveal it to everybody.  I am willing to reveal it to maybe 1 or 2 people.  If you knew my reason, you would know why I wouldn't want it revealed.  It isn't really a big reason anyways.  More of a "Possible out in a bad situation".  Wait.  I think the reason might be invalid.  Let me check.

Yeah I misread the rules. Never mind.

 

12 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Nah.  It would necessitate revealing another plan I wish to keep secret for now.

TheYoungPyromancer, is your reason for not revealing your plan invalid, as you say in the first quoted post, or do you have another plan necessitating keeping it quiet? You seem to be contradicting yourself here when challenged.

Posted
6 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmm... I'm not nearly as confident as I'd like on who to vote for - I'd like to read over the thread again when it's not now 3:30 in the morning. I'm making a mental note to look over a couple of Mage's posts - they felt weird but I can't place why (sorry Mage, I hate when someone says that about my posts - ping me to elaborate on this when I have fresh eyes if I've forgotten.) I think I'm going to vote for Droughtbringer. This is about an 80% poke-vote, 20% suspicious vote, if that makes any sense - they post one game relevant line, and it's about a fringe issue that's not really got anything to do with any of the major discussions (It really only says "We shouldn't treat Odium as a problem now, we should later if they seem to be working against the village" - a very safe statement.) It feels to me like they're trying to hedge their statements, and avoid coming down on one side or the other and drawing attention to themselves. Then again, it's possible that they just intend to post more when they're more rested (I should try that sometime), so I'll be interested to see what their general opinions are.

The bolded part made me laugh :P 

But, I've just been busy, I could give you all a rundown of my past couple of days if you really want it, but I don't feel like that is the most useful use of my time.

Reads:
@TheYoungPyromancer: I have been reading you as playing very similar to how you played when you held Survival, and you also mentioned something about you being sick and this being almost all that you have to do. Considering both of these things, your playstyle reads the way I would expect a villager to do in much the same situation. If you are overly bored, and need something to do, I would suggest going through and do some analysis; or take a look at specific posts and take notes about what stands out to you, and then post them. It takes a lot of time, but can be very, very rewarding. Slight Village Read

29 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I think for now I’m going to vote for Jondesu. @Jondesu is downplaying the likelihood of success of this lynch in a way that strikes me as suspicious, given we’ve had games with a similar ratio of eliminators before, and given the ratio will only increase from 4/22 to 6/22.

@Orlok Tsubodai You are playing as I expect you to play, and are being amazingly active and useful, for everyone in the thread. I find myself agreeing with most of your posts, and I am getting a fairly strong village read from you. Beyond that, you are posting enough that, if anyone becomes suspicious of you, we will have a lot of posts to look at with a new perspective.The only problem that I see is the above quote, which I disagree with. Although I agree that we should have a lynch, I do not believe that we should Lynch Jon over that, what he has said is plausible to see, and waiting will give us more of chance of hitting elims. Beyond that, I don't see an elim advocating for no day one lynch, unless their team mate is up for the lynch, which, even then, it would normally be better to just go after someone else and deflect suspicion (Especially if you can hit someone on the other Elim faction. So I disagree with lynching Jon.  Slight Village Read (And, because I talked a decent bit about @Jondesu in this paragraph, Slight village read on Jon as well)

1 minute ago, Sart said:

I hate it when I feel behind in a game. I was hanging out with my family over Spring Break, so I haven't been paying too much attention to this thread. However, I'm surprised to see a lack of discussion when it comes to world-hopping. We have two main options.

  1. We all stay in Silverlight, attempting to get more Investiture and Shards. The downside from this is obvious. This gives the conversion teams a large variety of people to convert, which is something we don't want happening. In addition, it is very difficult to put a Shard back into containment after it leaves, which helps Hoid and Khriss with their sudden death conditions. I know people want Shards, but having them free isn't necessarily a good thing.
  2. We start spreading out. Everyone probably has 1 use of investiture, right? That's enough to take one action, which is fine. In addition, we can always exchange the type we have by going to Roshar. That is a fair amount of power, even if it seems boring compared to having Shards. It also blocks Hoid and Khriss from converting from a large pool.

I propose we head out to the various worlds. We can pop back in to Silverlight if we run out of Investiture, while preventing more conversions. I'm curious to see your thoughts on the matter. Having no consensus will probably mean most people staying, which as I outlined is problematic to the village.

Well, at least 6 people (if not more) did not end up with Investiture, due to the Shards they went after being taken. I, at least, fall into that category. So although worldhopping around would be useful for some of us, for a lot of us there is not that much use. The big problem I see with this is that if we start spreading out then all the elims need to do is stay here, and they should be able to almost have a monopoly on shards which is not something that I want to experience. I see this as a slightly off post, so Slight Elim Read

SartAs you are my largest elim read, currently.

Posted (edited)

I sound so suspicious, don't I?  I am even giving myself a bad gut read!  I meant in the first one that the reason for saving Cultivation was invalid.  The reason for keeping my plan secret still applies.  Gosh, this would be so much easier if I didn't have to be careful about what I say!  Drought, I may follow your advice.

EDIT: Can someone make a vote tally?

I know our votes are all over the place, I just don't know who is up for the lynch.  Also, have we all just forgotten about 5th Scholar?

Edited by TheYoungPyromancer
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

I don't see an elim advocating for no day one lynch, unless their team mate is up for the lynch, which, even then, it would normally be better to just go after someone else and deflect suspicion (Especially if you can hit someone on the other Elim faction.

While I agree with part of this, it kinda goes into IKYK territory a bit, so I’d refrain from using this as a way of clearing people. And there are benefits to Elims calling for a no-lynch, as it makes them seem nice and pacifist, as well as defusing a lynch on a potential teammate.

Drought, while I see you have slight suspicions of Sart, would you mind checking out HH for me? I’d like a third opinion on him, though I still maintain he should be lynched.

Pyro, I’m fairly sure there are currently 2 votes on HH and No Lynch, with some other votes spread among several other people. You have about 7 hours left to vote.

Edit: What do you mean? Do you have suspicions of me? If so, please state them.

Edited by Fifth Scholar
Posted
1 hour ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

@Seonid, if someone held a shard, and was converted to that shard's wincon, and then got another Shard, would they be immune to that Shard's conversion?

That is correct

Posted

More specifically, the current vote count is:

Hemalurgic Headshot(2): Devotary, Fifth Scholar
TheYoungPyromancer(2): Steeldancer, Orlok
No Lynch(2): Arinian, Jondesu
Magestar(1): Straw
livinglegend(1): Megasif
Devotary(1): Elbereth
Sart(1): Droughbringer
Droughbringer(1): YoungBard

Currently, nobody will be lynched this cycle. 11 players have yet to vote, so that may change in the next six and a half hours.

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