Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Plum Rhinoceros]

By my count we still have 19 players left and a lot of games only start with 20 or 25 and generally it takes this long to find the elims. I wouldn't discount a normal size elim team just because we haven't hit any yet. It is discouraging I realize, but I wouldn't assume that the elims are a small group or even not very active. They may very well  be some of the most active players we have.

I was surprised by Gorilla's death because they were on my suspicions list. I hate to be glad they're dead, but it does help me narrow down my list. Still, all three of the players that died were active enough that it definitely hurt the village that they're out of the game.

I've been wanting to do in depth analysis, but couldn't because of irl stuff. So, I'll jump into that now and post again when I get at least a good chunk of it done.

[Onyx Flamingo]

2 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

So we need to find an Elim, today. Or we’re going to lose this game. I would like to call both @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Salmon Meerkat out of the shadows to explain their thoughts on recent developments, as neither has posted in a while (I think), and because I have mild elim suspicions on both of them from gut read on Meerkat (I think like 3 players have a bad gut read on him at this point?) and from Ostrich’s inactivity and lack of meaningful content in the posts she does make. Though, we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for that, and got no Elims. Third time’s the charm? 

I'm not sure about the smaller team though at this point I kind of hope they are. In addition to your list though Ivory I would like to call out @Emerald Falcon I know that they had been replaced by a pinch hitter once but we need more participation than 4 posts

I'm also going to repost my post counts from earlier today so i can see them in this thread

Player List:	old post count	post count	Role	links
1. Amethyst Scorpion	7	14		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26349-amethyst-scorpion/
2. Azure Mouse	3	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26365-azure-mouse/
3. Amber Vulture	5	13		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26352-amber-vulture/
4. Charcoal Hyena	3	3	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26369-charcoal-hyena/
5. Chartreuse Penguin	2	7		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26367-chartreuse-penguin/
6. Coral Swan	19	19	Lightweaver	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26370-coral-swan/
7. Cream Tuatara	6	15	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26350-cream-tuatara/
8. Emerald Falcon	3	4		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26351-emerald-falcon/
9. Fuschia Ostrich	4	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26353-fuchsia-ostrich/
10. Indigo Weasel	2	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26374-indigo-weasel/
11. Ivory Dragonfly	26	42		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26375-ivory-dragonfly/
12. Magenta Albatross	7	14		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26372-magenta-albatross/
13. Mauve Crocodile	6	12		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26373-mauve-crocodile/
14. Melon Dingo	6	6	Edgedancer	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26355-melon-dingo/
15. Mint Heron	2	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26357-mint-heron/
16. Onyx Flamingo	15	32		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26359-onyx-flamingo/
17. Opal Lion	2	8	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26371-opal-lion/
18. Oxblood Beagle	41	74	Willshaper	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26366-oxblood-beagle/
19. Pearl Chameleon	5	9		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26376-pearl-chameleon/
20. Plum Rhinoceros	0	6		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26377-plum-rhinoceros/
21. Quartz Zebra	1	16		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26358-quartz-zebra/
22. Saffron Iguana	5	5	Lightweaver	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26360-saffron-iguana/
23. Sage Kangaroo	5	11		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26361-sage-kangaroo/
24. Salmon Meerkat	10	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26362-salmon-meerkat/
25. Sapphire Elephant	6	12		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26363-sapphire-elephant/
26. Scarlet Octopus	6	6	Edgedancer	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26378-scarlet-octopus/
27. Sunburst Toucan	8	20		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26356-sunburst-toucan/
28. Taupe Gecko	13	18	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26379-taupe-gecko/
29. Turquoise Gorilla	2	10	Dustbringer	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26368-turquoise-gorilla/
30. Violet Axolotl	9	19		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26354-violet-axolotl/

Average		Min	Max	Mode	Median	# of mode instances
14.83333333		3	74	10	10.5

I haven't updated the post counts yet but I dont think updaing them at this point will be super helpful anyways as this should help us gauge activity during the cycles so far.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Onyx Flamingo

[Salmon Meerkat]

This is an... interesting turn of events. Three villagers dead, among them all of my suspicions. I suppose that its time to start throwing darts in the dark.

The Elims have successfully avoided our attentions for 4 days now, which means that they are obviously hiding in plain sight.

Mauve Crocodile. I've gotten the impression that you're shifting around without real input. You joined the Dingo bandwagon D1, then laid low for a day, then joined the Tuatara bandwagon. You've had an off feel in the back of my mind for a while, and now that I'm just grasping at straws, it's a good enough time as any.

[Emerald Falcon]

I would have done day three discussion, but I still had no clue what was going on (and still don't really) (only one person deigned grant me a summary, and that person said they weren't the best person to do it (thanks anyways though I appreciate the effort)) and I was busy. (And I planned to make a post Sunday, then realized I missed the deadline by ~13 mins.) 

Anyways, I'm here now. Currently eyes on Flamingo, Dragonfly and Scorpion (and maybe Albatross?). Will hopefully be posting more in the future, when I can, as well as staying up to date on the thread.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Alright, similar to what Toucan did, I want to run through all the remaining players. However, I’ll try to not go as in-depth, mainly due to time constraints. It’ll be done about 5-6 villagers at a time.

Amethyst Scorpion: Jumped right on the Tuatara bandwagon with little explanation save for their agreement with the logic against them. Fishy to me because even I, who led the lynch, kind of felt that the arguments against them were a bit flimsy. Could have joined because they had no better options, but I get an elim feel from them overall and this definently feels like an elim jumping on a bandwagon to possibly save a teammate. I might be overthinking this, but I had a bit of an elim read on them anyway, so I’ll let them respond if they feel anything I’ve said here is inaccurate.

Azure Mouse: Last votes on Beagle, though their suspicions seem genuine. Kind of noncommittal about the Tuatara lynch, and says that they suspect Vulture the least out of everyone who was up for a vote last cycle. Could be worth keeping an eye on. Speaking of which... 

Amber Vulture:  Generally confuses me. See, the content of his/her posts SEEMS villager, and the tone is that of an experienced villager, but... it almost seems too perfect. Like they’re delicately planning their responses so that everything can be interpreted in a villager-y light. Again, likely overthinking this and the far simpler (and correct) answer is that Vulture is a villager and I am paranoid after mislynching three times in a row. And Vulture did defend Beagle when he was under scrutiny... again, not sure, but for now “villager until proven elim.”

Chartreuse Penguin: Doesn’t have a high post count, but has arguably posted more analysis and discussion than half the people in this thread. Their general tone as well as some of the cautionary points they’re making gives me a generally village read on them. Would like to see more from them to stabilize this initial read, though.

Emerald Falcon: Has posted way too little for me to get any sort of read. He did initially propose the D1 lynch on Dingo, though, so there is that.

I’m going to bed now and will have more thoughts in the morning.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Ah thank you, Dragonfly, because I started doing the same thing, but didn't hit any of those players yet.

I started with zebra and kangaroo for now. I'm just gonna post some notes I took regarding a few of their posts.

Zebra:

Quote

1. Zebra voted for Ostrich and gave good analysis that felt like it was really well thought out and coming from a villager. Village read for this.

2. Zebra and Albatross had interactions that made me feel that they wouldn't be elim teammates anyways, so I'll be looking at alignments to compare should one or the other die.

3. Zebra switches their vote to Flamingo and gets ninja'd by 3 people, 2 of which are now dead villagers so I wouldn't see elim cooperation on this vote switch.

4. They tagged people to come vote which has been used by elims before to look like they're trying to get people involved, but they went a step further to actually give a very detailed run down of the vote summary by tagging all the necessary posts that players would need to read to get involved which I see as being something a villager would do and not an elim.

5. Zebra pushes hard for Flamingo to get lynched in at least 4 posts so I definitely wouldn't see them being elim teammates same as with Albatross and Zebra from my earlier example.

6. They said they realized they'd been tunneling and should look into more players and this sounds like a very village thing to say.

Overall, my read on Zebra came out very village.

Kangaroo:

Quote

1. They give very good advice on why we should have a Day 1 lynch, but this is really NAI since both villagers and elims tend to give good advice when it won't really hurt their team because it makes them appear more village. (Generally speaking, elims come off looking like the "perfect villagers" for a good portion of the game.)

2. Votes Gecko, but later removes it when they say the vote wasn't getting anywhere. They said they would get back on and vote that cycle, but never did.

3. They became very focused on Beagle throughout most of the rest of their posts and even voted on him once, but changed it when someone pointed out that their reasons weren't the best. They still professed suspicion of him in almost every single post up until he died.

4. Says they aren't suspicious of Tuatara and think they are a villager.

5. Votes Flamingo so I wouldn't see a Kangaroo/Flamingo team.

6. Says they trust Dragonfly and Zebra the most of all the players. (will be helpful to look at if one of these three end up dead eventually) I'm also trusting of these players and I'm not sure whether to like that from Kangaroo or to suspect an elim of pointing out two players that he knows are village.

7. Says he'd like a Flamingo lynch to gain info.

8. Admitted to their tunnel on Beagle before he flipped village. Not sure whether they knew he was gonna be killed that cycle or not.

9. Throughout most of the cycles, kangaroo has either not voted or voted for players who have flipped village at this point.

Overall I get a possible elim vibe from Kangaroo. They appear sort of village, but I can see an elim making most of the posts they did.

I'll try and do more analysis tomorrow, and get up a vote. For now, goodnight.

[Amber Vulture]

Well crem. I can't say I wasn't expecting it to happen at some point. I wish it hadn't happened quite yet, though.

Kangaroo, I have a relatively strong village read on you, and have since day one. I believe I mentioned that in a post. You've been among the most cynical of Beagle's accusations, so when you go back through his posts in the light of his innocence, I'm very interested in hearing your impressions. I feel that your perspective was far enough away from his that you can serve as a foil to each other, in a way, ultimately giving us a better understanding of the information from a variety of perspectives.

In response to Rhino's recent post, I actually have little to no read on Zebra, but no news is good news I suppose. If there have been no warning flags, he's probably alright.

Axolotl, that's a fantastic tool to use for analysis. Thank you for providing it! I will, unfortunately, have to wait until the morning to do any concrete analysis with it, but the fact that you made it is very helpful.

1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Amber Vulture:  Generally confuses me. See, the content of his/her posts SEEMS villager, and the tone is that of an experienced villager, but... it almost seems too perfect. 

 

I... suppose I'll take that as a compliment?

In all honesty, though, I do consider how my posts will be seen regardless of my alignment. I don't let it influence my decisions, but it does influence how I explain them. Whatever side I'm on, after all, I know it's bad for my team if I'm lynched, and I believe that the most beneficial course of action is the one I'm pursuing. I don't let it define my posts, but it is a consideration. 

[Mint Heron]

6 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Sapphire Elephant, yes, that was a Dustbringer kill. 

Can we have confirmation of whether the Sympathisers or a Dustbringer power killed Jai (Beagle), Gecko, and Gorilla?

-

Kharsis made it to a back alley simultaneously relieved and feeling worse than ever. Thank the Almighty for windows with latches, he thought faintly. He glanced at the tavern, then quickly glanced away. Lively, raucous laughter emanated from the open window, but he rejected its enticing invitation. He had to get out of here, so Elion couldn’t find him. And then -- and then he could think about what to do. 
This is why I run
He snuck to the front of the tavern, where he had left his cart, chained to a post, still laden with all of the goods he had hoped to sell here. He swiftly unlocked it and ran.
Because my own life is more precious to me than to be lost in Their Games
In his panic he neglected to form a plan and simply hurtled down the streets, turning at random, thinking only to put distance between himself and the tavern. Kharsis passed by familiar landmarks: the large street sign whose glyphs he always wondered at, the house at the end of the street with a small ornamental garden he used to play in, the inn with the painted exterior he still marveled at. His cart bounced up and down the uneven streets, bells jangling discordantly in his ears. He had to get away. He had to.
I know
Finally, he could run no longer. He slowed down to a brisk walk at the edge of a marketplace, and when he could no longer walk, he stopped and leaned against his cart, winded. Elion wouldn’t dare confront him in a place this crowded, he hoped. There were too many people here to witness what ought to be a family matter. 
But one day, it will knock on your door, old friend
Kharsis buried his face in his hands. He’d stay here and rest, he decided. Then, at some point when Elion wouldn’t be watching, he would leave Rennan. But for now he would have to stay. He breathed out a deep sigh and remained at his cart, from where he watched the movement of the market, thinking.
And what will you do then?
Ghostly laughter echoed in his head, still calling him.

-

 

So far, I haven't had many thoughts on Penguin, Vulture, Falcon, Ostrich, Crocodile, Chameleon, and Zebra. I'll take a look at them later, when I have time. Apologies for my reduced activity; I thought I would have more time with the end of QF29 but my coursework has decided to prove me wrong >>

Edited for grammar.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Can't say I'm surprised about the attack on Beagle, though it is regrettable. Gorilla and Gecko... I didn't have a strong enough read on either of them to draw any conclusions from their deaths (EDIT: though after reflecting I remembered that I had been leaning village for both of them. Still don't know what conclusions to draw, other than maybe that the Eliminators have a world hopper that drew Division last cycle). 

Anyway, as I promised last night, here are a few of my suspicions:

First though, some recap of things I and others have said.

I mentioned that I thought it likely that in any given vote some eliminators would try to avoid the limelight by not voting or voting for someone outside of the lynch debate. Well there was only one lynch candidate who was outside of the debate: Amber Vulture. 

Now, I was the one who first voted for Vulture. I had my reasons for doing so (and I still do), however I readily admit that they are pretty flimsy reasons to anyone who isn't me. So imagine my surprise when a few people actually started following my in my lynch. Flamingo followed me for a little bit, then shifted their vote to Tuatara for self preservation reasons. However, one player followed my vote Vulture and was content to leave their vote there the entire day: @Magenta Albatross. If there was an eliminator wanting to vote but still stay out of the main debate, Albatross is literally the only person that could be (aside from me, but I already know I'm innocent ).

Second, Last night I challenged Beagle (who- for better or for worse- we now know to be village) to look at the PM group again with the assumption that one of the members was an eliminator, and try to figure out which one it was. This was his response:

Quote

If there was an elim in the PM, i would suspect Albatross. But... they haven't given me any actual reasons to think they're elim. They were the only one in the group who did not share their role, but there may have been other reasons for that, Idk.

Hmm. Albatross again. 

Third, we have this. 

6 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Dragonfly, Albatross and Scorpion are the only, living, players to have voted in each lynch so far.  I have no idea if it means anything but it's something that I feel should be pointed out.  I was hoping to find one person that joined in every successful lynch but alas.

If someone can see a pattern of something, please speak up as I got nothing.

Now, it's not guaranteed that any particular eliminator is going to vote every cycle, but I'd say that there is a good chance that at least one of those three players is an eliminator, if not more. And once again, Albatross is one of the candidates. 

Now, this is far from an ironclad case, but it's enough for me to know where I want to cast my vote. Magenta Albatross. 

---

Now, lest someone accused me of tunneling, I assure you I'm not. At worst, I'm misconstruing several select pieces of evidence. I do have some other suspicions, as well as village reads. Namely:

@Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm...

@Salmon Meerkat: Admittedly, I have no specific evidence, just a gut feeling, but I have never had a gut read this strong in any game I've ever played. Something subconsciously just screams to me that Meerkat is an Elim. If other people felt inclined to vote for Meerkat I'd support the lynch in a heartbeat.  

Still feeling that @Quartz Zebra is Village, and to a lesser extent, @Ivory Dragonfly and @Onyx Flamingo are probably village. My other two village reads (Beagle and Gecko) died last night. 

---

 

6 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I think people have mentioned that unusual role distributions are a thing in AGs, and I’m thinking that the Elims got 2 Skybreakers and a Dustbringer/ Worldhopper to help kill people. To balance it, they also got a really small team. Which is maybe why after 10 kills, 6 of which are likely village kills, we haven’t found one Elim among them. Also, we got more vote manip to help us control the lynch, though with Beagle dead that capacity is diminished. 

So we need to find an Elim, today. Or we’re going to lose this game. 

I'll reiterate what others have said: It's perfectly normal to not have found any eliminators by cycle 4, and we have no reason to suspect that they have a smaller than usual team. Yeah, it's not ideal, but we're still several cycles away from the "We need to find an Eliminator today or we lose the game" point. 

6 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I would like to call both @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Salmon Meerkat out of the shadows to explain their thoughts on recent developments, as neither has posted in a while (I think), and because I have mild elim suspicions on both of them from gut read on Meerkat (I think like 3 players have a bad gut read on him at this point?) and from Ostrich’s inactivity and lack of meaningful content in the posts she does make.

 

I missed this on my first read through today's thread, but noticed it when I quoted the above section, after I had written out my suspicion list. So that actually makes 4 people with a bad gut read on Meerkat. Meerkat, how come so many people's guts are distrustful of you?

Edited January 23, 2018 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Ivory Dragonfly]

@Chartreuse Penguin While I would concur with Beagle that the most likely Elim in the PM was Albatross, I don’t think the evidence you’ve presented against them merits a lynch- yet. I’ll eventually get to them in my reviews. Speaking of which:

Fuschia Ostrich: My primary suspicion. Keeps delaying significant analysis with a promise to post later, but never actually does so. Now, I am aware that we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for this, but I still think there’s at least one Elim among the semiactives, and Ostrich is one of the only ones left in that group, and is by far the most suspicious. If you want a more comprehensive case vs Ostrich, see Zebra’s argument at the end of D2, I think. Fuschia Ostrich.

Indigo Weasel: Most significant thing from them is being the first to push a vote on Swan D2. Their post drove the PM group to lynch Swan. And they bandwagoned onto Beagle after defending Vulture. Could have been honest intentions, but maybe signs of an elim trying to lynch active villagers.

Ivory Dragonfly: Hi.

Okay, thought I’d get to more people than this, but I have time constraints due to having to go to school, so I hope lynch discussion develops nicely. Will be back in 12-13 hours. 

 

[Amber Vulture]

5 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

@Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm...

 

Whoops, I thought I had. Will do so now

Basically, in previous games I've participated in, I've found people are much more open in PMs, if only because there's an illusion of privacy, and this means that active PMs can be an invaluable resource for the villagers. In this game, unfortunately, PMs are limited, which means we had to start talking fast in order to get as much of a benefit. In an attempt to jumpstart the conversation, I posted my suspicion, expecting others to respond by posting their own. Unfortunately, that didn't work. 

Edited to avoid double-posting: I agree that Ostrich is rather suspicious, and further agree that Zebra's case against them is quite compelling. I'd like to hear a defense before casting my vote, however. If these past cycles have taught me anything, it's that we need opposing viewpoints to debate the merits of a lynch before we engage in it

Edited January 23, 2018 by Amber Vulture

[Sunburst Toucan]

5 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm...

"Ehm, Sir Uinneas... This is not completely true. There was another one who was trying to get a response from the members of this group, though they weren't as obvious about it as Vulture." Vanna got the relevant letter out of her bag. "Flamingo was the last one to speak in the group, and send us all a message directly after accusing beagle and dragonfly. She asked us what we thought of them, and whether we, too, saw a pattern. Now, this is a far cry from actually asking us to agree with her, but the statement itself could have been made to try and lead us to a certain conclusion. Otherwise, what would the point of asking a specific number of villagers for input be, if she could have asked everyone in the thread. I'm not actually certain if this means anything, but I wanted to make sure this information was available."

Vanna quickly walked back to the bench she'd claimed after correcting the large Shardbearer. She hadn't actually wanted to confront him, but she felt this was not the time to keep information back. Once she was properly seated she opened her notebook again. She'd probably be done by the end of the day. Maybe earlier if she could find the time and will to push through.

Pearl Chameleon

Spoiler

Chameleon has been accused of blending into the background several times. I initially disagreed after going over everything he'd said. He held a pretty big speech during the first day in which he explained his various suspicions and trusts before voting against Dingo. He then became quiet for a bout a day, until he discussed what had happened to Elyle(Swan) in the night after that.

Initially, despite no talking that often, his two big speeches seemed to contain quite a lot of content, and they do. However, he has said very little besides those two topics. What he has said seems sensible, but the D1 lynch and the Swan lynch where both relatively safe topics as well. I hope Chameleon'll share some more of his thoughts with us, because right now he just seems rather chameleon-y. This could be because a lack of time, of course. Several of his posts definitely support that idea, but until I've heard more from him I can't rule out murderous intent either.

Plum Rhino

Spoiler

Another case of suddenly-a-completely-different-character-syndrome. This is starting to worry me. I mean, one case is odd, but this is the third or fourth, I think, and that's just scary (OC: or maybe I've been playing too much Persona 5 recently).

As before, I'll be ignoring most of what has been said before the character change. Though it might be relevant in some cases, you can't really ask someone for explanation on what their previous self did. Now, the new Rhino hasn't said too much of substance yet, but he has presented a list of suspects and is presenting reasoning for why he suspects or trusts people. I don't think he would be doing that if he was a murderer. Or at the very least, he'd be taking the transition more slowly, so I think Rhino's innocent.

Quartz Zebra

Spoiler

I wonder if Zebra was part of a city guard before moving here. He definitely seems to be doing the investigation thing quite thoroughly.

Zebra has said a lot, so I won't be talking about most of that. What I would like to point to is his post near the end of the lynch yesterday, in which he summarized the main arguments so that everyone who wasn't caught up could quickly figure out what was going on and vote. This is really going above and beyond what would normally be expected, I think, and probably wouldn't be a thing that one of the murderers would come up with. That can't be ruled out, of course, but it's posts like that that make me trust someone.

Zebra also recognized his own forming bias against the Oxblood group, and reacted with that. Now, this could have been a murderer recognizing that beagle was at risk and changing his read to match what was actually going on, but that seems unlikely, as there's nothing wrong about being wrong, but holding a negative view of a villager that is a potential threat makes it easier to push for a lynch without being suspected.

Overall, I'm inclined tot rust Zebra

 

[Azure Mouse]

That was not a good round for us... And sorry Beagle for not trusting you...

No one poked me for my promised reads either. DIdn't end up having time for them. My studies are intensive this week, and it's taking up more time than I expected. Should calm down by Friday though, and hopefully I'll be able to improve my activity.
 

12 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

<snipped out the Vote Tallies for space reasons>

Dragonfly, Albatross and Scorpion are the only, living, players to have voted in each lynch so far.  I have no idea if it means anything but it's something that I feel should be pointed out.  I was hoping to find one person that joined in every successful lynch but alas.

If someone can see a pattern of something, please speak up as I got nothing.

If you wanted to analyze the previous lynches properly, you're better off getting the tally of the in thread votes, and then noting what changed in the official one, because there has been some vote manipulation:

Day 1
Meerkat(1): Ostrich, Toucan
Weasel(0): Gecko
Penguin(2): Beagle, Scorpion, Iguana
Mouse(1): Dingo
Crocodile(0): Elephant, Gorilla
Dingo(6): Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Chameleon, Dragonfly, Beagle, Crocodile, Meerkat
Elephant(0): Hyena
Axoltol(1): Dragonfly, Swan
Scorpion(3): Tuatara, Albatross, Hyena
Octopus(0): Kangaroo, Octopus, Gecko
Vulture(0): Scorpion
Gecko(0): Kangaroo, Dragonfly, Swan
Dragonfly(0): Swan
Weasel(1): Ostrich
Swan(1): Meerkat, Axolotl, Zebra
Heron(0): Beagle
Chameleon(0): Axolotl

No changes or errors in the vote tally.

Day 2
Chameleon(0): Beagle, Axolotl
Rhino(0): Beagle
Gecko(1): Swan, Kangaroo, Flamingo
Flamingo(2): Weasel, Rhino, Beagle, Lion, Swan
Weasel(1): Scorpion
Heron(1): Dragonfly
Penguin(0): Flamingo
Albatross(0): Toucan
Toucan(0): Albatross
Tuatara(0): Elephant
Axolotl(0): Beagle, Albatross, Ostrich
Swan(6): Weasel, Beagle, Elephant, Albatross, Flamingo, Lion

Vote count on Swan only says 5 on the offical one, but lists 6 players. Presumably a GM error. Axoltol is also listed as having a vote on Chameleon but they withdrew it in that post of theirs (which I also only just noticed was filled with white text). Assumes that is GM error too.

Day 3
Tuatara(7): Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Flamingo
Lion(0): Tuatara
Heron(0): Flamingo
Vulture(2): Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross
Beagle(5): Kangaroo, Tuatara, Heron, Weasel, Mouse, Gorilla, Tuatara
Ostrich(0): Zebra
Meerkat(0): Gorilla
Flamingo(4): Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara, Zebra, Crocodile

Beagle and Tuatara's votes disappeared, Crocodiles was moved from Flamingo to Tuatara.

So maybe there's not a ton of difference for most of them. I guess with this you get to see how votes shifted around. I guess that's possibly handy.

Anyway, to those reads then.
Amethyst Scorpion
Day 1 - Posts a poem as first post. Poke votes Dingo for inactivity, then Vulture. Wanted a random lynch.
Day 2 - Didn't post during the night, though read it. First suggestion of evil dustbringer. Votes Weasel for acting like how Scorpion has as mafia before.
Night 2 - Asks about PMs leading to Swan lynch.
Day 3 - Welcomes PMs, after our Edgedancers died. Apologies for not doing promised deeper analysis. Says will try to keep active but won't be super analytical. Joins in the Tuatara lynch.
Night 3 - Comment about needed sleep before next lynch. Unhapy they helped lynch a villager. Hopes the Dustbringer has better judgment.
Thoughts: They could probably do with posting more, maybe posting some thoughts on some of the living players. For the moment though, I don't get any sorta mafia vibe from them.
Hmm. I've already spent a long time on this, so maybe just one line thoughts...

Amber Vulture
Looking solely at their posts, I don't see anything to sus about them thus far. Sorta more a neutral read still.

And... I'm out of time for the moment. Off the top of my head, I'm leaning town on Zebra, and I think it was Dragonfly, though I'd need to check that one. I'll try get the others up at a later point this cycle, when I can find the time.

[Sage Kangaroo]

7 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Quote

9. Throughout most of the cycles, kangaroo has either not voted or voted for players who have flipped village at this point.

Overall I get a possible elim vibe from Kangaroo. They appear sort of village, but I can see an elim making most of the posts they did.

Well, to be fair, we've only lynched villagers so far.    Not sure what else to say about that.  And as far as what Elims would and/or could do, the best Elims look like villagers anyway.  It's sort of the point.  So while an Elim could most likely have made the posts I did, it doesn't exactly say anything.

10 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Mauve Crocodile. I've gotten the impression that you're shifting around without real input. You joined the Dingo bandwagon D1, then laid low for a day, then joined the Tuatara bandwagon. You've had an off feel in the back of my mind for a while, and now that I'm just grasping at straws, it's a good enough time as any.

Yeah...  I really haven't payed a whole lot of attention to Mauve.  I admit I've been guilty of just scanning posts that weren't directly related to Beagle;  I really thought I was onto something there.  I noticed it yesterday when I realized that Zebra had been pretty active and talkative, but I had dismissed their posts.  I had to go back and read over their stuff again.  

Actually, if they have been "shifting around without real input" then that would explain why I haven't really been able to get a read on them.

As far as Magenta goes, Magenta's end-of-cycle post yesterday read pretty village to me, in content and tone.  Admittedly, their posts at the beginning of this cycle were a bit odd, but I'm not sure that's a great reason to lynch them.   I do sort of see the connection that Penguin made (Although Penguin is another player I've somehow sort of missed.) but it just seems flimsy. 

12 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Everything about the Gorilla kill was strange. It’s either an Elim Dustbringer, or a World hopper that got Dustbringer powers. As others have said, I find the second more likely, but we shouldn’t discount the first. I think people have mentioned that unusual role distributions are a thing in AGs, and I’m thinking that the Elims got 2 Skybreakers and a Dustbringer/ Worldhopper to help kill people. To balance it, they also got a really small team. Which is maybe why after 10 kills, 6 of which are likely village kills, we haven’t found one Elim among them. Also, we got more vote manip to help us control the lynch, though with Beagle dead that capacity is diminished. 

I'd go so far as to say all the kills last night were strange.  Taupe Gecko was possibly the most normal of the kills, as he appears to have been killed by the Elims, and he was pretty obviously villager.  Still, it doesn't seem like the most logical Elim kill.  Then there's Beagle.  Beagle was clearly killed by Gorilla, as Gorilla couldn't have attacked himself.  So, just looking at what appears to have happened;  Elims kill Taupe, Gorilla kills Beagle, Elim Worldhopper/Dustbringer kills Gorilla.  Now, seeing as the Elim dustbringer must have killed Gorilla, why?  And why would the Elims kill Gorilla?  Were his reads too close to the truth?  

And why the heck would Gorilla kill Beagle?  Did I miss something?  Was Gorilla suspicious of Beagle as well?

Basically what I'm saying is, I've got a lot of questions.  More questions than answers at this point.

8 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Kangaroo, I have a relatively strong village read on you, and have since day one. I believe I mentioned that in a post. You've been among the most cynical of Beagle's accusations, so when you go back through his posts in the light of his innocence, I'm very interested in hearing your impressions. I feel that your perspective was far enough away from his that you can serve as a foil to each other, in a way, ultimately giving us a better understanding of the information from a variety of perspectives.

Yeah...  I'll be interested to see what I think, too.   There's quite a bit to go over, which is a bit of good and bad.  Beagle had a whole ton of posts, which means a lot to analyze, but he also had a whole ton of posts, which means a whole ton to analyze.  I've got a really busy day ahead, so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post, let alone look over Beagle's stuff.  However, I will try to get some analysis done on Beagle before the cycle ends.

[Mauve Crocodile]

13 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Mauve Crocodile. I've gotten the impression that you're shifting around without real input. You joined the Dingo bandwagon D1, then laid low for a day, then joined the Tuatara bandwagon. You've had an off feel in the back of my mind for a while, and now that I'm just grasping at straws, it's a good enough time as any.

That's fair, I don't have much to go off of either, but as for day 2 it wasn't that I was "laying low" it was that I maybe slightly got distracted with other things.  (That happens to me a lot). I would like to point out that I had voted on Flamingo, but my vote was moved to Tuatara via vote manip, just for reference.

I'm trying to find someone to lynch, but I just don't have much to go off of. I don't see anyone who is actively seeming like an elim, I don't currently have the time to go through each and every post of each and every person to look for slight tells, and I just don't know here to go from here on out. We don't have any big candidates that have come forth as someone good to lynch, and I'm just honestly confused.

Because I have no suspicions, I am going to talk about roles, and hope that someone gives me a good idea to manage suspicions:

We've lost a third of our players, all of them villagers so far. We've lost PMs so that our Skybreaker, even if they find an elim, can't tell someone that they trust discretely. We've lost our village kill, and may be out of Lightweavers. If there is another Lightweaver then I would imagine it as being an Elim's, to help them protect themselves. That means that we probably have:

Windrunner/Protect role: I would suggest that you try and figure out who the Village Skybreaker is (assuming that we have one). If you can find them, then protect them every night that you can to try and keep them alive.

Skybreaker/Scanner role: I would suggest trying to find elims :P, and if you find any other useful village try to defend them, if possible, but don't cast too much suspicion on yourself.

Dustbringer/Kill role: Probably no more.

Edgedancer/PMs: Dead.

Lightweaver/Smoker: Look for the Windrunner and Skybreakers, and try to figure out who they are. If you can protect the Skybreaker from being scanned it might keep them alive longer, if the elims also have one. You can also try and protect people that you think votes might be manipulated, but that would require looking ahead quite a bit.

Elsecaller/Thug: If you can, try to make the elims target you. If you become a super useful person, and the elims target you than it uses up one of their kills and allows us to survive for longer.

Willshaper/Bondsmith: Use your vote manip only to save people that you absolutely trust. Try to be sparing with it, as too much vote manip is going to be confusing.

Worldhopper: See above for whatever you have at the moment.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

3 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

Ehm, Sir Uinneas... This is not completely true. There was another one who was trying to get a response from the members of this group, though they weren't as obvious about it as Vulture." Vanna got the relevant letter out of her bag. "Flamingo was the last one to speak in the group, and send us all a message directly after accusing beagle and dragonfly. She asked us what we thought of them, and whether we, too, saw a pattern. Now, this is a far cry from actually asking us to agree with her, but the statement itself could have been made to try and lead us to a certain conclusion. Otherwise, what would the point of asking a specific number of villagers for input be, if she could have asked everyone in the thread. I'm not actually certain if this means anything, but I wanted to make sure this information was available."

Ah yes, good point. Thanks. But actually, what Flamingo said was (paraphrased) “hey what do you guys think of the post I just made in the thread?” Unfortunately, this was made during the time when I was struggling to maintain activity, and since Flamingo didn’t include a link to their post I never actually went to track down the post they were referring to, so I never knew what it said. My bad I guess. 

 

5 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

 

@Chartreuse Penguin While I would concur with Beagle that the most likely Elim in the PM was Albatross, I don’t think the evidence you’ve presented against them merits a lynch- yet. I’ll eventually get to them in my reviews. Speaking of which:

Fuschia Ostrich: My primary suspicion. Keeps delaying significant analysis with a promise to post later, but never actually does so. Now, I am aware that we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for this, but I still think there’s at least one Elim among the semiactives, and Ostrich is one of the only ones left in that group, and is by far the most suspicious. If you want a more comprehensive case vs Ostrich, see Zebra’s argument at the end of D2, I think. Fuschia Ostrich

 

I respect your opinion, though I’m still leaving my vote on Albatross. 

And thanks for reminding me about Zebra’s case against Ostrich. I found it rather compelling, too. Adding Ostrich to my list of suspicions (mentally- I don’t have a spreadsheet set up or anything, which is why I sometime forget about stuff like this).

Edited January 23, 2018 by Chartreuse Penguin
Grammar

[Onyx Flamingo]

14 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Anyways, I'm here now. Currently eyes on Flamingo, Dragonfly and Scorpion (and maybe Albatross?). Will hopefully be posting more in the future, when I can, as well as staying up to date on the thread.

I believe (and please correct me if I am wrong) that almost everyone else believes dragonfly to be villager. So I am pretty interested in why do you suspect them?

 

5 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

"Ehm, Sir Uinneas... This is not completely true. There was another one who was trying to get a response from the members of this group, though they weren't as obvious about it as Vulture." Vanna got the relevant letter out of her bag. "Flamingo was the last one to speak in the group, and send us all a message directly after accusing beagle and dragonfly. She asked us what we thought of them, and whether we, too, saw a pattern. Now, this is a far cry from actually asking us to agree with her, but the statement itself could have been made to try and lead us to a certain conclusion. Otherwise, what would the point of asking a specific number of villagers for input be, if she could have asked everyone in the thread. I'm not actually certain if this means anything, but I wanted to make sure this information was available."

I will acknowledge toucan is right that i did post

 Editted per Mint herons post Paraphrased:Hey I made a post in the main thread what did you guys think about it? Is there a pattern?

In the bird PM after my long post on day 2 about beagle and dragonfly. I was genuinely curious to see what other peoples thoughts were but there was never any response.

I've been trying to review a lot of peoples past posts but as toucan also said there have been several pinch hitters and that kind of makes it difficult to determine certain patterns.

I did however make a document noting what days people voted and i thought it was interesting.

Spoiler

Player List:	day1	day 2	day 3
1. Amethyst Scorpion	1	1	1
2. Azure Mouse			1
3. Amber Vulture			1
4. Charcoal Hyena	1
5. Chartreuse Penguin			1
6. Coral Swan	1	1
7. Cream Tuatara	1		1
8. Emerald Falcon	1
9. Fuschia Ostrich	1
10. Indigo Weasel		1	1
11. Ivory Dragonfly	1	1	1
12. Magenta Albatross	1	1	1
13. Mauve Crocodile	1		1
14. Melon Dingo	1
15. Mint Heron			1
16. Onyx Flamingo		1	1
17. Opal Lion		1
18. Oxblood Beagle	1	1	1
19. Pearl Chameleon	1
20. Plum Rhinoceros		1
21. Quartz Zebra	1		1
22. Saffron Iguana	1
23. Sage Kangaroo		1	1
24. Salmon Meerkat	1
25. Sapphire Elephant		1	1
26. Scarlet Octopus
27. Sunburst Toucan	1		1
28. Taupe Gecko	1		1
29. Turquoise Gorilla			1
30. Violet Axolotl

The first thing that stood out is we don't have a lot of people voting consistenly so we need you villagers to do your civic duty and vote!

Next is that @Salmon Meerkat, @Pearl Chameleon, @Fuchsia Ostrich, and @Emerald Falcon have not voted since day 1. This seems to me like it could be an attempt to lay low and not have to post anything that may stand out.

Then there is an opposite group which did not vote during the first two days being @Azure Mouse, @Amber Vulture, @Chartreuse Penguin, and @Mint Heron. Now admittedly mint heron got a pinch hitter so that could explain why they didnt vote but I listed them for completeness's sake.

Then there is Violet Axolotl which if you look at day twos calculation it says he voted but as Azure mouse did say he removed his vote from chameleon that day so technically he has not voted at all yet.

What to make out of this? Well I definitely believe there are people purposefully trying to post as little information as possible and are trying to not say anything which might catch them in a lie or cast suspicion. I am suspicious of Salmon Meerkat because he seems to have stayed up on things rather well and he never voted on day 2 despite having strong feelings against the reasoning of the lynch. He also immediately set beagle up for being suspicious if swan did turn up villager.

Then he immediately washed his hands of any involvement in the Day1 accusation of swan with this first post of day 3

but despite making this elegant RP as the very first post of this day failed to show up for the rest of the day and only posted again when the night came. 

My other current suspicions are Fuchsia Ostrich, and Scorpion.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Onyx Flamingo

[Mint Heron]

@Onyx Flamingo, please remove the quote from that PM, as it's against the rules. Paraphrasing is fine, copying and pasting is not.

[Magenta Albatross]

Spoiler

Gorilla's post from Night 3

Quote

  On 21/01/2018 at 4:39 PM, Mauve Crocodile said:

I am going to agree with Gecko for why they voted on Flamingo. I agree that we should still be keeping an eye on Beagle for the whole vote thing (sorry that I keep bringing it up, just sudden band wagons are suspicious), and how closely Flamingo and Beagle have been working together should soft clear Beagle, and if Flamingo is an Elim than we can take a look at Beagle. I think that we still have a bit of room to try and find information, and the chance of finding two Elims in one vote seems like it would be useful.

This post feels off to me. It feels like they're going over the top to give their reasons for voting on Flamingo, like they expect him to flip village and they want to have plenty of excuses for why they voted on him.

  On 21/01/2018 at 4:51 PM, Oxblood Beagle said:

I sense a vote to save Tuatara, and I'm getting uber suspicious. Very, VERY suspicious. This vote has become close enough that the elims could manipulate it. I am really sure of Flamingos villagerness, and this counterwagon is off to me. 

I would agree with this, except for the fact that Tuatara just keeps doing things that would be so obvious as an elim that I can't really believe he is.

  On 21/01/2018 at 4:59 PM, Quartz Zebra said:

Interesting. When you support a late bandwagon, it's not suspicious at all, but when you don't support it, it's very suspicious. Just saying... 

Well, Beagle admitted it was a gamble, which implies he understands he'd get suspicion for it if he was wrong. So I don't agree with this. That, and the fact that he was openly saving Flamingo with his late lynch while this late lynch on Flamingo isn't quite as focused on saving Tuatara, which is what I'd expect from a lynch that the Sympathizers are forcing to save a teammate, since they wouldn't want to draw attention to the fact they're saving their teammate.

  On 21/01/2018 at 5:46 PM, Indigo Weasel said:

Hmm... I had read through some accusations and honestly I don't see Tuatara as elim, also accusations on Vulture looking flimsy as hell I don't see nothing special that can mean that Vulture is elim.

Beagle and Flamingo looks like best targets for lynch for me right now.

Flamingo still voting for people based on really weak suspicions, I know that we don't have any good evidence against someone but cases against people on which Flamingo voted is even weaker than just weak. Problem with Flamingo it that I don't know if he\she is new player or not, if Flamingo new player then I can understand his\her behavior, but if Flamingo lied to me about being new player than, well, I think that Flamingo can be elim. 

Beagle, yes he is very active and encouraging discussion and bla blah blah. And I don't think that there much evidence against him but not lynching him cause he active and we "probably" can get information about Beagle's alignment from Flamingo lynch is foolish. Elims sometimes protecting villagers just to gain trust, why that can't be so in our case, just look, we lynching Flamingo and see that he\she is villager, I'm sure that it will delay Beagle's lynch atleast for couple cycles. Also good players on elims easily can be in center of discussion as someone already pointed, maybe that's putting them in vulnerable position but in same time by that they getting chance to direct village, they gaining trust. 

So... I don't know. I purely don't have any evidence against Beagle just my baseless guesses that he can be one of those active elim player. But I also don't see other players who stand out for me(except Flamingo).

Is Flamingo a new player? I thought that was Dragonfly who said they were new?

@Quartz Zebra, about your earlier mention of me. I did vote on Salmon Meerkat earlier, but I did so with false accusations(not on purpose, just thought he'd posted something that someone else posted), so I felt I should remove my vote until I put a solid case against him.

Forgot to quote this, so:

"Gorilla- Is a pinch hitter. Says they would rather lynch Vulture than Tautara... But then doesn't make any move to vote in that way. I get that you don't really like either candidate that well, but is there a reason you aren't going to use your vote to cause the result you said you would prefer? I am kind of wary of this sort of behavior." - Gecko

I normally would have, but like I said, I couldn't seem to gather my thoughts at the time, and neither of them were targets I liked. If I had done anything more at that point, it would have been to build a case for an alternative target, but I couldn't focus well enough to do that.

Another vote tally:

Vulture(2): Penguin, Albatross
Beagle(4): Heron, Weasel, Mouse, Gorilla
Tuatara(7): Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Flamingo
Flamingo(5): Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara, Zebra, Crocodile

Okay, we've only got 1 hour left, so here's my current thoughts. No time to do an alternate lynch on anyone besides these 4 players. Of the four lynches, Vulture's looks the purest(by which I mean the one least likely to have a Sympathizer voting in it), but I don't agree strongly enough with lynching Vulture that I want to join it. The lynch I feel most likely to have a Sympathizer is probably Flamingos, because I don't trust Gecko, Kangaroo, or Crocodile. I do lean village on Zebra and Tuatara, but Tuatara is obviously voting for self preservation. I also feel the Tuatara lynch probably has a Sympathizer in it, as I kind of think the "PM trust" group might have a Sympathizer in it and even if it doesn't, I don't have village reads on Scorpion, Vulture, or Toucan really. The Beagle lynch is unclear, because I don't have a read on Heron or Weasel. Information wise, I think lynching Beagle/Flamingo or Tuatara would be the most helpful, so we can move on from them. The trust group suspects Tuatara, and multiple players have stated suspicion of Beagle/Flamingo and the PM stuff. Only problem with lynching one of Beagle or Flamingo is that I view them as either villager/villager or elim/villager, and right now I'm of the opinion that Beagle is more likely to be an elim than Flamingo and I doubt we can move the lynch over to Beagle this late. I don't see their interactions as elim/elim, because they're collaborating too openly. I'm leaning elim more on Beagle than Flamingo mostly just based on gut honestly.

And now Mouse just voted Beagle. I was considering voting Tuatara, because I could be wrong about them and I didn't think a Beagle lynch was possible, but I guess I'll give it a shot now that Mouse has added their vote. Beagle. Sorry, I know I said I don't like to vote only because of gut, but it's too late to dive into your posts and give analysis.

Now Axolotl ninja'd me while I waver...argh. I'm just not sure about any of these lynches. Whatever, my vote's on Beagle. I think I'm secretly hoping Tuatara is lynched and flips elim though, so I can stop worrying about Beagle. 

 

Starting my analysis with a summary of Gorilla's post. Could possibly move on to Gecko later as well, as he was the elim kill.

First of all, this post felt to me like Gorilla was trying to look at all the angles and wasn't really tunnelling anywhere, if we can call it that. 

1. They throw some suspicion on Crocodile, which then seems to have diffused slightly later on when Crocodile posts a response but that's about it on Crocodile from Gorilla. 

2. They feel Tuatara is being too elim-like to actually think they are an elim.

We know both Gorilla and Tuatara's alignment now to see that Gorilla was correct about them without any bias (e.g. being an elim knowing their alignment)

3. I had to read the response to Zebra's post a few times to actually figure out what Gorilla was talking about there. Gorilla being a villager, at least we can say that Zebra/Gorilla interaction definitely isn't elim/elim here and I would be hard pressed to think it's elim/villager, as I'm leaning villager on Zebra at the moment.

4. After addressing a point and responding to Zebra and Gecko (who we know is a villager as well), Gorilla moves onto wagon analysis.

Wagon Analysis :

Day 3
Tuatara(7): Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Flamingo
Heron(0): Flamingo
Vulture(2): Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross
Beagle(5): Kangaroo, Tuatara, Heron, Weasel, Mouse, Gorilla, Tuatara
Ostrich(0): Zebra
Meerkat(0): Gorilla
Flamingo(4): Gecko, Kangaroo, Tuatara, Zebra, Crocodile

Gorilla talks about the wagons and gives their reads on various players. They don't find Vulture elimy and feel flamingo/beagle could be villager/elim with the elim lean on beagle. Feels Flamingo and Tuatara wagon has elims in their. Understands Tuatara's vote as self-pres. Gorilla voices their suspicions on Beagle and votes beagle, giving the reason that they want to figure them out and move on basically. Gorilla would've voted Tuatara if not for the Beagle wagon forming.

Beagle didn't get lynched and Tuatara turned out to be a villager as well, which now makes sense that Gorilla used their dustbringer action on Beagle. Overall, I feel Gorila was concerned about the whole PM group thing as many others and wanted to sort it out and look at a wider player list. As for the reason for the kill on Gorilla, I think it could be his mention of suspicions of people on the wagon trying to save an elim teammate. I could see this as a possible cause, but two already flipped villager, and flamingo I feel is a villager and Vulture is a slight elim lean. There could be more we could learn but I'm going to move on and if anyone else wants to have a go, feel free. 

 

Spoiler

11 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Can't say I'm surprised about the attack on Beagle, though it is regrettable. Gorilla and Gecko... I didn't have a strong enough read on either of them to draw any conclusions from their deaths (EDIT: though after reflecting I remembered that I had been leaning village for both of them. Still don't know what conclusions to draw, other than maybe that the Eliminators have a world hopper that drew Division last cycle). 

Anyway, as I promised last night, here are a few of my suspicions:

First though, some recap of things I and others have said.

I mentioned that I thought it likely that in any given vote some eliminators would try to avoid the limelight by not voting or voting for someone outside of the lynch debate. Well there was only one lynch candidate who was outside of the debate: Amber Vulture. 

Now, I was the one who first voted for Vulture. I had my reasons for doing so (and I still do), however I readily admit that they are pretty flimsy reasons to anyone who isn't me. So imagine my surprise when a few people actually started following my in my lynch. Flamingo followed me for a little bit, then shifted their vote to Tuatara for self preservation reasons. However, one player followed my vote Vulture and was content to leave their vote there the entire day: @Magenta Albatross. If there was an eliminator wanting to vote but still stay out of the main debate, Albatross is literally the only person that could be (aside from me, but I already know I'm innocent ).

Second, Last night I challenged Beagle (who- for better or for worse- we now know to be village) to look at the PM group again with the assumption that one of the members was an eliminator, and try to figure out which one it was. This was his response:

Hmm. Albatross again. 

Third, we have this. 

Now, it's not guaranteed that any particular eliminator is going to vote every cycle, but I'd say that there is a good chance that at least one of those three players is an eliminator, if not more. And once again, Albatross is one of the candidates. 

Now, this is far from an ironclad case, but it's enough for me to know where I want to cast my vote. Magenta Albatross. 

---

Now, lest someone accused me of tunneling, I assure you I'm not. At worst, I'm misconstruing several select pieces of evidence. I do have some other suspicions, as well as village reads. Namely:

@Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm...

@Salmon Meerkat: Admittedly, I have no specific evidence, just a gut feeling, but I have never had a gut read this strong in any game I've ever played. Something subconsciously just screams to me that Meerkat is an Elim. If other people felt inclined to vote for Meerkat I'd support the lynch in a heartbeat.  

Still feeling that @Quartz Zebra is Village, and to a lesser extent, @Ivory Dragonfly and @Onyx Flamingo are probably village. My other two village reads (Beagle and Gecko) died last night. 

---

 

I'll reiterate what others have said: It's perfectly normal to not have found any eliminators by cycle 4, and we have no reason to suspect that they have a smaller than usual team. Yeah, it's not ideal, but we're still several cycles away from the "We need to find an Eliminator today or we lose the game" point. 

 

I missed this on my first read through today's thread, but noticed it when I quoted the above section, after I had written out my suspicion list. So that actually makes 4 people with a bad gut read on Meerkat. Meerkat, how come so many people's guts are distrustful of you?

 

@Chartreuse PenguinI will also address some points here while I'm at it. I'm not really a fan of defending myself when people make a case on me as a villager because they are either an elim trying to lynch me or a villager with tunnel-vision. I don't think this is the case here as Penguins posts give a village vibe yet the points don't really seem to make sense and feel rather like reaching (trying really hard to make it appear like something is a certain way) and I want to comment on them as they seem to have been taken out of context and also make it into a semi-analysis of the Wagons from yesterday.

1. is about parking my vote on vulture following Penguin's vote. My reasons for voting Vulture were entirely my own so I don't really feel as if I followed Penguin and I can't seem to recall Penguins reasons anyway. I will assume here that you missed my post detailing my current reads during day 3 in which I presented my viewpoint on certain players that stood out at the time. I didn't vote my most suspicious reads as it was quite far into the day and I didn't want to bring another wagon up. 

Stolen Updated Vote Count
Tuatara : Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant (5)
Vulture : Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross(3)
Beagle : Kangaroo, Tuatara (2)
Ostrich : Zebra (1)

This is how the vote count was after my vote, so I don't feel as though I was on a vanity wagon, trying to escape attention as it was very possible at the time that the Vulture lynch could happen. If I felt strongly about Tuatara, I would've voted them initially and beagle was my village read. If I wanted to stay out of the debate, I could've just said I'm not feeling anything and unwilling to vote today.

2. If you want to follow this, I won't say anything tbh. Even I feel there's a chance for an elim to be in the PM group, but again, you say it yourself that you asked beagle an 'what if scenario' of an elim in the PM group and beagle said my name and in return you use that response as a factor in your case. Out of everything, this in particular feels like something an elim would do, as they seem to have set it up so they can cast suspicion on whoever beagle names. And again, it was penguin that asked and then used the response. If there was one thing that I feel seems like elim from Penguin, it'd be this. But even then, this is understandable considering the attention the PM group have been getting so I won't use this as a point to lean elim on Penguin.

3. is the vote count from previous days.

As a villager, I feel that one of the best ways to help the village out is to actively vote. No doubt we will vote wrong, but as we learn alignments, we can look back and see the movements and make connections, who was trying to save someone, who was pushing for a lynch etc. So I feel the opposite about this point. And most other players who voted everyday are dead, as villagers.

Again, looking at yesterday's vote count and the fact so many players were out to play and then knowing the alignments of two of the wagons helps us much more than people not voting. I feel, and I've said this before, elims are most of the time content to sit out and let the game play out if there isn't an elim up for the lynch. You can disagree with me on this but yesterday we had 18 players who were playing and voting actively. Two of the wagons were village and I think Flamingo is a villager as well. That leaves Vulture, who I feel could be an elim. It also leads me to look at the scenario that Flamingo could be an elim but it's a very small doubt right now like with beagle.

I will look back through some of the other players that have been mentioned and that have been escaping attention and make a small analysis and place a vote hopefully (As I have an exam tomorrow so will be busy until after it's finished.)

P.s. I don't want to just pursue Vulture today and not going to just use the vote count to damnation them, if they're indeed a villager. I kinda want to hear more from them, after going through their posts yesterday.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Magenta Albatross

[Salmon Meerkat]

@Onyx Flamingo Regarding the lynches I did not vote: unfortunately, any action I could have taken would have been futile. I would not have been able to convince five or so different people to change their minds, especially with only a few hours left in the cycle (since most bandwagons this game have developed to full power towards the end of the cycle). Having no useful option, I simply did not vote. One exception: I crashed after church on Sunday (D3) and slept through rollover, and by then it was too late to do anything.

As for Swan, I was very specific in my explanation D1 that I had nothing specifically against Swan, and afterwards I began to lean more village with Swan, having seen more posts. 

As for everything else you said, I can see no fault, other than you misinterpreted my actions as suspicious.

@Mauve Crocodile, is that your entire defense? 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

14 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

@Onyx Flamingo Regarding the lynches I did not vote: unfortunately, any action I could have taken would have been futile. I would not have been able to convince five or so different people to change their minds, especially with only a few hours left in the cycle (since most bandwagons this game have developed to full power towards the end of the cycle). Having no useful option, I simply did not vote.

Lynches sometimes change in the last 10 minutes of the game  There's no reason not to try and convince people with a few hours left if you actually suspect someone.

If you sort of suspected the person in the lead than you could always place your vote there or vote for your choice with as compelling an argument you can give.

Not voting makes you appear as if you're trying to stay out of trouble by lynching a villager. I'm not saying you are an elim if you don't vote, but it does look odd if you just decide not to. Plus, voting is important for helping us analyze players. 

I need to read through some more posts today before I get up anything else, but for now I see this as something an elim could do and others seem to find your actions throughout the game suspicious as well. For fear of not voting myself after this explanation of why you should always vote, meerkat I'll read through your posts tho and change my vote if I see a better possibility don't worry.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Chartreuse Penguin]

@Magenta Albatross I just wanted to say that I’ve seen and acknowledge your response. I’m going to leave my vote on you, for now at least. You make some good points, but as I read your post I could see you saying those things whether you were an Eliminator or a villager. 

My suspicions on other players still stand, and I may switch my vote to one of them later on if I feel it will be beneficial to the lynch. 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Oh yes, @Sage Kangaroo sorry I forgot to respond to you. I'm not saying you're an elim because of your votes all hitting villagers. I guess it was just something I noticed while looking though your posts that everyone you've voted (even if you retracted your vote before the cycle ended) have all been confirmed village at this point. I'm not overly suspicious of you, I'm just saying that you're in my category of possibilities which makes me trust you less.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Alright, so at almost the midpoint of the cycle, we have our votes distributed between a few players:

Mauve Crocodile: (1) - Salmon Meerkat

Magenta Albatross: (1) - Chartreuse Penguin

Salmon Meerkat: (2) - Onyx Flamingo, Plum Rhinoceros

Fuchsia Ostrich: (1) - Ivory Dragonfly

 

At the moment, I'm tempted to vote on Fuchsia Ostrich, but I'm worried that hunting through the semi-actives might be a distraction. I'm not sure about the Salmon Meerkat lynch - they haven't shown up on my radar at all yet. I'll go back and see what their interactions on earlier cycles look like to me.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Alright, back after a long day with some commentary on players. Still going down the list.

Magenta Albatross: Okay, looking back at the PM group, I think Albatross is the most likely to be Elim. However, looking through their posts, the tone I get is that of a villager trying to advance discussion on players. I don’t see anything in their behavior to indicate a possible Elim, so I really think that Beagle chose thoughtfully when he created the PM group. I’m still not 100% sure on Elephant, but the original group feels very safe to me. Albatross I read as very village.

Mauve Crocodile: I can’t say I trust them, as they’ve posted way too little for me to say something like that, but I have a general village read on them. Meerkat’s case against them is flimsy, as he himself admits, but the way he’s sticking to it after a fairly comprehensive post from Crocodile makes me suspicious. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

 Mint Heron: Most of their posts are suspicions of our PM group. Since so many people have expressed suspicions of it, it’s hard to root out the opportunistic Elims from the mistrusting villagers, and this is even more so the case with Heron. He brings up new evidence in his points against us, but again that could just be a studious Elim. No read on him yet. Heron, could you please comment on some of the recent developments? 

Onyx Flamingo: So, not too active the first day or two, so I made a fairly mild accusation, and was met with an emotionally charged, defensive reply. With no time to really respond comprehensively, I went to school thinking “welp found one of the Elims.” And then the PM group with Beagle started, and he said “please trust Flamingo.” So I looked back at their recent posts, and saw a good bit of villager in them. And then? They became a contributing member of the village, posting solid analysis. From these posts, I was finally able to do as Beagle wanted me to: trust Flamingo. I understand there are those in the village with suspicions of Flamingo, which from their style of writing I can understand. But I think it’s just that: their writing style. It feels very spur-of-the-moment and emotionally charged, and I think you’re mistaking tone for content if you see that as evidence against Flamingo. Also, the way they’ve talked in PMs with me feels very village, as they would frequently post when I was unable to respond, kind of just putting their thoughts down. Except I could see them. I don’t see that as something an Elim, even a new one, would do.

Pearl Chameleon: Provided one of the initial posts in favor of lynching Dingo. Also defended Meerkat and Gecko, and had suspicions of the PM group (surprise!) and Weasel. Comes around on the PM group though. I really haven’t seen much from them due to low post quantity, but I have a village read here. Need more activity to get a better read. 

Nearly done with this cataloguing of the village but I need a bit of a break from it. I think it’ll be interesting to compare Toucan’s reads on people with mine once we’re both finished. Hers will be more in-depth, but hopefully you can get something out of mine too. I’ve also stopped reading Toucan’s little summaries so I don’t accidentally repeat some of her ideas just from having seen them recently. 

In regards to how the lynch is shaping up, we need a lot more people contributing and voting. I understand it’s not the weekend, but we still need solid discussion so we can lynch an Elim. Looking at the lynch candidates, I’m really tempted to jump on the Meerkat lynch. Something holds me back though. I’m not entirely comfortable lynching someone based on mostly gut read, and though their behavior feels off, I’ll hold back unless I think there’s no better option.  Crocodile and Albatross are both villager reads for me, so I don’t support a lynch on either of the two, so my vote stays on Ostrich for now, as they have yet to post. It’s looking fishier and fishier to me.