Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 Okay everyone, I disappeared for a little while because I was busy irl, but I'm back now and will get caught up soon. I see a lot of votes for Weasel already just from scanning down the thread and seeing the names in red. I'll have to take a look. Be back later once I've caught up and thought through everything. The meerkat lynch became a giant pile on after a while so let's be sure and look at this carefully if that starts to happen with the lynch on Weasel.
Mint Heron Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Amber Vulture said: 1. What you're essentially saying is that you went over my posts looking for suspicious stuff, didn't find any, and you're voting on me anyways I mean, that's fine. It's actually something I consider NAI, since villagers will often make more of these types of arguments than eliminators, who don't really care who's lynched and just want a village player to die. 2. Ok, this is reading as suspicious to me. You just referenced my statement that Kangaroo seemed to me to be an "experienced villager", and then you say you didn't see any comments on Kangaroo's alignment. Also, I'm not sure what you mean that I've made efforts to show that I'm experienced, because I don't believe I've done so in an irrelevant way. With Chameleon especially I wasn't saying that people should listen to me because I'm experienced, I was saying I've done things similar to making a vote count in an effort to go over what has happened, so I know it's something that can be a village course of action. 3. You say that I'm a null read, and given the fact that you're calling out me specifically and not another player leads me to believe that means I'm the most suspicious player alive now, in your opinion. If that's the case, that means you have at least a village lean on every other player in the game. That seems rather odd, to me. If I'm wrong, and there are other NAI players, I'd encourage you to name them. I'd also like to know why you're choosing to vote for me rather than them, if you don't mind. I'm always suspicious when someone's best argument for a lynch is a null read, since you're voting on someone you're self-professedly not suspicious of. 1. Sure, you can put it that way. I also didn't see anything very villagery either, and at this point in the game I'm not inclined to trust that. 2. Whoops, didn't notice at the time. 3. TBH I haven't been keeping up too much with this game. A lot of my suspicions were based off of the assumption that Jai was a Sympathiser, which he clearly wasn't. I chose to look at you first because your name is first on my no-reads list. You look like you're not committing to the game, so I figured I might as well park my vote on you and provoke a response if I could. It's 5am so srs!me has gone away and he prolly won't be back until evening. I probably can't get much analysis done but I'll be free to talk if anyone's willing.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 Well, not too terribly much to catch up on. Zebra, thank you for your analysis. Your points about Weasel are interesting and merit consideration. I’ll definitely look through Weasel’s posts again once I have time. I agree with others that the Albatross lynch is too convenient. The evidence around it looks carefully arranged to me, and again, when I have time, I will examine those pushing the lynch. For now, I’d like to encourage @Amethyst Scorpion to respond to some of the comments made about him in thread, as I’d like to see more from him to get a stronger read. His withdrawal after others made negative commentary on him looks fishy to me, so I’d like him to make another post. I’ll be back on in an hour or two.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: I agree with others that the Albatross lynch is too convenient. The evidence around it looks carefully arranged to me, and again, when I have time, I will examine those pushing the lynch. "Nolan, can you explain this more?" Vanna shook her head in confusion. "I can see the point about Peng being murdered with the goal of incriminating Albatross, but what other evidence do you see that could be 'carefully arranged'? And regarding Peng's murder, the idea that it was made especially to incriminate albatross seems to have been the first suspicion of a lot of people, so I'm not really sure if we can draw a valid conclusion about that. After all, the murderers could have predicted the conclusion about it being made to frame albatross, so they did it to protect one of their own. That's not really a line of thought I want to take to its logical conclusion though." Vanna got a head-ache just from thinking about thinking about that. "As for the case against Weasel, I don't really see a good case for lynching him. I don't see a case against lynching him either as he hasn't said or done anything that makes me trust him. However, if 'hasn't done anything to look trustworthy' is the best reason we can come up with for a lynch, I suspect we're in a lot of trouble. It's a fine argument for keepin an eye on someone, of course, but it's not something to hang them for." "As for scorpion..." Vanna's voice trailed of as she realized she didn't actually have much to say about him. "Ehm,. I'll have to review what he's said and done again. For now my concerns about Albatross haven't been lifted. In fact, it seems like a number of people are using the Peng murder as proof that albatross's being framed, ignoring other things, like hiscomment on the Meerkat lynch. This worries me, especially because people are calling the lynch on albatross 'easy' when it's a three-way tie. In hindsight the Meerkat lynch was easy, but nothing seems to be indicating that for Albatross right now." Edited January 26, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said: No. Scorpion. I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure there's no way that Ivory is an Elim, between their activity, the tone of their posts, and their actions. Their voting habits might seem a bit off, but honestly, we haven't killed a single Elim yet. So, at this point, pretty much all of us have iffy voting patterns. Another thing I noticed when I was looking over the game is that several people have actively voiced suspicions of you, especially towards the beginning of the game, and that you didn't really respond to most of them; Instead, they sort of just slid off. Also, you've kind of been hiding in the shadows, and done some pretty suspicious things yourself. See, there was never really anything for me to respond to. And yes, I know my suspicions have been somewhat vague. They’re going to be, since I don’t have any strong reads, nor do I feel like taking the time or effort to do big in-depth analysis, when it’s failed to produce anything useful for me in the past (and doesn’t seem to be doing any good here so far either). And now conveniently there’s a bandwagon on me. Yay. Yeah, I think what I just said should cover the points against me. I’d sit back and just say lynch me, but that doesn’t help the village any, so instead why don’t ya’ll think about why you’re trusting Ivory so much when they’ve done nothing to back up your trust in them? Edit: Oh, and @Ivory Dragonfly? I didn’t withdraw. It’s a been a whopping 8 hours since the post I just responded to. Oh no, I’m totally avoiding the thread. Or, you know...asleep. Edited January 26, 2018 by Amethyst Scorpion
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 26, 2018 Posted January 26, 2018 @Sunburst Toucan Fair enough. I wasn’t really thinking clearly when I made that post, as I crashed for an hour almost immediately afterwards, and was mostly quoting Elephant without giving him credit. I still have a village read on Albatross, though I will say that it’s slightly disconcerting that he hasn’t appeared to defend himself in the chat. Do you have thoughts on today’s lynch, @Magenta Albatross? Weasel is still off to me, though I do see the case for him being a chaotic villager. While I’m leaning Elim on him, I don’t think I’ll keep my vote on him this cycle simply because if he does flip village, we gain no info from the lynch. Today is the day, I feel, that we lynch someone who’s a bit more active, because we need more info, and we’ll only get that by lynching someone who nearly everyone has commented on. I’d also like to lynch someone I think is suspicious. That might mean someone whose tone sounds village. But good Elims, I should think, can fake a village tone. And we really need to look into players like Vulture, Elephant and Zebra more. They sound village. I have a village read on them, and all three have posted great analysis. But they could have ulterior motives. We need to be careful. I apologize, Scorpion. For some reason I missed your post about Falcon. So, looking back through a few player’s records, I’ve got literally nothing. I want to commit myself to a full reread of the thread... but... ugh, that’ll take so long. But I kinda have to do it if I really want a comprehensive view of things. Please tag me if you respond to this post so that I’ll know I’ve been contacted as I wander in the huge original thread.
Magenta Albatross Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 Just here to say I'm alive and well and getting something up now. I've been rather busy (with exams) but hopefully I should be more active now.
Magenta Albatross Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 (edited) I wanted to do a progression read on one of my suspicions and then later try to do an analysis of other players. My current suspicions lie somewhere in between Toucan, Scorpion and Vulture but the the last two are weaker than the first. My first suspicions on Toucan began from these two posts on Day 2. Spoiler Quote Vanna wished she could be elsewhere, preferably far away from this mountain. Wishing didn’t make it so, and she knew she wouldn’t be able to bring herself to leave, but still, thoughts of freedom taunted her. Discussion had continued to swirl around her, but lately several people had come by to prompt her to participate as well. Thing is, she didn’t have anything to add. That wasn’t really a reason to not participate, of course, but she’d always tried to avoid speaking up when she didn’t have anything of value to add. Yet as she looked over those present again, she didn’t notice one thing. Albatross, someone who she’d been somewhat suspicious of since yesterday hadn’t been seen at all last night, or today. Was he hiding? Vanna sighed. There was probably a completely reasonable excuse for why he wasn’t present, and going after him because of his odd vote while he wasn’t even there to defend himself wouldn’t particularly help anyone. Unless he was guilty, of course. After a moment's hesitation, Vanna spoke up. "I've got some questions for Albatross (@Magenta Albatross) about his reasons for going after Scoprion yesterday. So if he could join us here to answer them, I'd appreicate it." Quote 'Well, I guess angrily calling out people to explain themselves does work, sometimes.' Albatross had turned up shortly after Vanna had called him out and explained his reasoning for voting Scorpion. Vanna didn't exactly like his explanation, but it did make sense. "Fair enough, Albatross. If it can be helped, try not to disappear like that again until we've solved this." I replied later with: Quote Thinking back on this, it seems like Toucan is just here today to mention inactive people and vote them and then remove the vote on their explanation. I realize a few people have been doing this, namely beagle, to get people to be more active. But the above post in particular seems to be implying that players will get active when they're voted upon or mentioned. Reading through, why this stood out and not beagle's, because this is the only thing Toucan has done this cycle and only with me. If possible, I'd like their thoughts on the game state and some reads on people. For now, sunburnt toucan. Out of three posts that day, these were two of them. I felt like Toucan was just trying to give an impression of doing something in the thread when they mentioned me and then removed their vote. I was massively pinged by this as they didn't appear to do this to anyone else and singling me out for the vote on scorpion day 1 when no one had any solid reasons. I thought they could be an elim and trying to appear to be doing some work in trying to make players active but I didn't follow through due to having focus elsewhere i.e. 'PM group' at the time. Night 2, Toucan made a post about keeping an eye on Vulture because of their statement that they would've voted swan at EoD 2 if they had been there. From Day 3: Spoiler Quote I believe Sunburst Toucan defended Meerkat. An interesting combination, since both of them have garnered some suspicion. Would Toucan be willing to defend a teammate if they're both under suspicion though? "Eh, what?" Vanna looked up from her notes in confusion. "I don't remember defending Meerkat at all. being suspicious of him, and voting on him during the first day, yes. The only thing that could be considered a defense is backing off from pursuing that suspicion further after Swan decided to let Meerkat off the hook." Vanna shook her head. She'd probably need to review Meerkat soon, to see whether her first instincts where right or not, but she'd decided to approach it systematically, and abandoning that now might rob her of the momentum she'd built in getting the job done. Peneg Uinneas(Chartreuse Penguin) Hide contents Well, having a full Shardbearer (or maybe even a Radiant? One can hope) around should be useful, and if he was part of the murderers he could probably have just emptied the village by going on a rampage, right? Then again, a few of those who died where actually radiant themselves, so he might just be waiting till they're dealt with. His status as a shardbearer doesn't prove anything, so let's move on. Peneg has been pretty quiet until last night. Not counting his belligerent entrance during the first day, that is. He'd been contributing some interesting speculation about the various orders of Radiants present, and what their respective numbers might mean. His conclusions are based on actual divine intervention in which orders are present, but I can't prove that's not the case, so it should be kept in mind. Today, she mentioned that contacting a lot of people is usually a bad idea, which is rather interesting because Peneg was one of the first to do so, contacting around 8 villagers including myself during the first night. That could be because she was actually looking for someone to betray themselves by attempting to manipulate people in there though. overall Peneg hasn't given me much to determine whether he's innocent or not. Cream Tuatara Hide contents Tuatara seems to be made from inconsistencies. During the first day he threw a lot of votes around for the most trivial of reasons, but he claimed he'd only vote if he had a good reason during the second day. Most of his other comments seem to be pointing out the obvious. For example, he remarked on the sudden lynch mob at the end of yesterday without actually adding any insight apart form it being suspicious. Today, he put a vote on Opal Lion for his role in that lynch, but there's no real indication this is the result of an independent decision, as several people had pointed out that Opal Lion's vote was the oddest in the bunch, and someone thought it was suspicious enough to murder him for. overall, Tuatara hasn't really said anything that would allow me to determine whether he's innocent or not, but given how often he's spoken up, that in itself is a suspicious. Aldrick (Emerald Falcon) Hide contents Aldrick seems to have just had a major change in his character, but the new Aldrick hasn't said enough yet for me to judge whether it's an improvement over cranky old soldier Aldrick. The change is very odd, but it means that looking at what he's said in the past is not as valuable as it might have been. OOC: So, there's no way I can think of to say this in character, but him specifically asking for summaries makes me lean slightly village on him, as an elim could have easily gotten those out of the doc. That having been said, an elim could have asked for those specifically to look village. Fuchsia Ostrich Hide contents Ostrich was one of those casting suspicion around with no real explanation during the first day. If he was the only one this would be suspicious, but given how many people did that ( a short bout of madness due to the shock of the smith's sudden death, maybe?), I'm not sure if there's anything that an be concluded by that. I suspect that one or more of the murderers might have joined in on that, but I'm not sure howto tell the actually mad from the murderously crazy. During D2, he voted on Axolotl and claimed that there was an explanation: However, he never actually explained what made axolotl suspicious, which makes me suspicious. There's nothing else that really springs out to me. I'm somewhat suspicious of Ostrich for the unexplained vote on axolotl, and would really like to see an explanation ( @Fuchsia Ostrich) Vanna put her pen down. She'd covered about a third of the village now, but her hand had started to cramp, so it was time for a break. She took her notes and walked towards the edge of the village to look out over the world. 0 plus another post in which I noticed that they were analysing players and not really coming to any sort of read on them, apart from maybe 1 or 2 players and I made these reads on day 3: Spoiler Quote elim leans sunburnt Toucan - Through all of day 2, they did RP, pinged me and then took their vote off me after I replied. I voiced some concern about them that they feel too focused on a narrow player base and I can see today that they are doing analysis on more players. However, it still off because, apart from one or two players, they're not really taking a stance and most of them end with 'overall I feel undecided' or 'not enough to determine' their alignment. And besides this they are slightly suspicious of ostrich and most suspicious of tuatara who is also lined up to be the lynch today but still do not vote them with 'I am not sure'. Now if I look on the other side, this could come from a villager who is not used to taking firm stances but I feel as though it's more from someone not wanting to commit themselves and stay open to going on any valid lynch not their own and not a teammate's. Scorpion - Although this is weaker than Toucan, Scorpion felt a bit off with their tone at the beginning, stiff, for the lack of a better word. Day 2 they gave me a better feel but I want to put them in this section to keep them in mind. The posts today are all saying that they will soon make some analysis but keeps getting delayed. I could see this tactic from an elim who doesn't have much suspicions and wants to stay undercover as long as they are not being talked about. @Amethyst Scorpion I know you've already made a post regarding this but if you feel that you do not have time for deep analysis, then you don't need to do it. We'd rather you just give brief thoughts on the game and maybe one or two players allowing us to form an opinion on you then that would be appreciated. For now, I'll place my vote on Vulture looking at the choices and I think this could possibly give us an elim. As that was quite late in the day, I voted one of the wagons which I was slightly suspicious of, which later ended up getting derailed and I was one of two players on Vulture's wagons at the end of day as I didn't want to bring another wagon up. Toucan later made this post, which made me not focus on them too much the next day as I felt like they were being slightly more villagery than not at that point. Spoiler Quote Vanna put the last touches to the charcoal drawing of a particularly large winged Cremlin. She’d noticed the critter sitting on a nearby windowsill observing the proceedings and on an impulse had started drawing it. “Look.” She turned her sketchbook towards the creature. “That’s you.” The critters head turned towards the drawing for a couple of seconds, and then swivelled back towards the town square. It moved its front-legs in a way that would have looked like a shrug if the creature had been human. Vanna shook her head and stored away her sketchbook and took out her notebook gain. Next on her list was Albatross. Magenta Albatross Hide contents I noticed some off behavior from them during D1, where them mentioning being afraid of a sudden bandwagon against swan seemed suspicious. Thing is, Swan was not one of the murderers, so in hindsight that comment isn't as suspicious as it used to look. Albatross' has been doing some decent research since then. I don't agree on his opinion of me, as he'd likely reach the same conclusion when looking at those I wrote up as not having said enough to judge. Albatross just skipped most of those. He also gives activity as the only reason for judging beagle as village, which is odd, but until we're certain about beagle there's no good way to judge that comment. Overall Albatross seems like he sees activity and participation as a sign of innocence, which I disagree with. However, a murderer would probably be looking for ways to frame innocent people and would be less likely to judge them favorably. On the other hand, if the murderer was trying to be 'honest' with his accusation he would have a harder time judging innocents unfairly if they didn't actually give him something to base suspicion on, meaning that he'd have lots of village reads. Overall though, I don't think Albatross is a murderer. My main point of suspicion has been debunked by Elyle's death. Mauve Crocodile Hide contents Crocodile hasn't really added much of substance until the second night, after Elyle had died. He did mention being really confused in the run-up to that, though. His one major contribution tot he discussion was made last night, discussing the alignments of Lion and Beagle. He mentions that he thinks both of them are villagers, but doesn't explain where that feeling comes from. Since we know that Lion was innocent I think Crocodile might be innocent too, because the murderers would probably have liked to use Lion as a distraction today. That is assuming that the dustbringer is not actually part of the murderers himself. Overall, I think Crocodile might be innocent, but if beagle proves to be a murderer I will need to take another look at him, as his defense of Lion could just have been to give his defense of beagle more legitimacy. Mint Heron Hide contents Another case of sudden personality change disorder. A lot of his posts after the personality change focused on combating the idea that all the murderers where just hiding and lying low. I agree with him on this, and would probably have spoken up about it if I'd realized this line of thought was going around. However, this doesn't really prove anything beyond the fact that he's paying attention to what is being said, as there are a number for reasons for both murderers and innocents to point this out. His vote on Jai seems to be better supported than the vote by Tuatara, but until we know more about Tuatara and beagle there isn't much that can be concluded about that vote as well. I can't make a solid conclusion about Heron yet. If he shares some thoughts about the various players then reading him might become easier. Now, there was the issue of the vote. A lot of people had expressed their suspicion of Tuatara by now, but there where a number of people going after Vulture as well. Vanna considered the matter for a moment. She was definitely somewhat distrustful of Amber, but she didn't suspect her more than Tuatara. Nor had Tuatara said anything that changed her opinion of his actions. "So, I suppose Tuatara it is." After this, a few more posts through the night and day cycle talking about the 'PM group', which I felt everyone was talking about and the elims probably tried their hardest to sow suspicion through it. I feel like what Toucan said about the group can come from both elim and villager. So we move onto day 4 and Penguin brings up a few points and votes me which I addressed later when I came online as I felt they were being taken out of context: Spoiler Quote Can't say I'm surprised about the attack on Beagle, though it is regrettable. Gorilla and Gecko... I didn't have a strong enough read on either of them to draw any conclusions from their deaths (EDIT: though after reflecting I remembered that I had been leaning village for both of them. Still don't know what conclusions to draw, other than maybe that the Eliminators have a world hopper that drew Division last cycle). Anyway, as I promised last night, here are a few of my suspicions: First though, some recap of things I and others have said. I mentioned that I thought it likely that in any given vote some eliminators would try to avoid the limelight by not voting or voting for someone outside of the lynch debate. Well there was only one lynch candidate who was outside of the debate: Amber Vulture. Now, I was the one who first voted for Vulture. I had my reasons for doing so (and I still do), however I readily admit that they are pretty flimsy reasons to anyone who isn't me. So imagine my surprise when a few people actually started following my in my lynch. Flamingo followed me for a little bit, then shifted their vote to Tuatara for self preservation reasons. However, one player followed my vote Vulture and was content to leave their vote there the entire day: @Magenta Albatross. If there was an eliminator wanting to vote but still stay out of the main debate, Albatross is literally the only person that could be (aside from me, but I already know I'm innocent ). Second, Last night I challenged Beagle (who- for better or for worse- we now know to be village) to look at the PM group again with the assumption that one of the members was an eliminator, and try to figure out which one it was. This was his response: Quote If there was an elim in the PM, i would suspect Albatross. But... they haven't given me any actual reasons to think they're elim. They were the only one in the group who did not share their role, but there may have been other reasons for that, Idk. Hmm. Albatross again. Third, we have this. On 22/01/2018 at 11:00 PM, Violet Axolotl said: Dragonfly, Albatross and Scorpion are the only, living, players to have voted in each lynch so far. I have no idea if it means anything but it's something that I feel should be pointed out. I was hoping to find one person that joined in every successful lynch but alas. If someone can see a pattern of something, please speak up as I got nothing. Now, it's not guaranteed that any particular eliminator is going to vote every cycle, but I'd say that there is a good chance that at least one of those three players is an eliminator, if not more. And once again, Albatross is one of the candidates. Now, this is far from an ironclad case, but it's enough for me to know where I want to cast my vote. Magenta Albatross. Now, lest someone accused me of tunneling, I assure you I'm not. At worst, I'm misconstruing several select pieces of evidence. I do have some other suspicions, as well as village reads. Namely: @Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm... @Salmon Meerkat: Admittedly, I have no specific evidence, just a gut feeling, but I have never had a gut read this strong in any game I've ever played. Something subconsciously just screams to me that Meerkat is an Elim. If other people felt inclined to vote for Meerkat I'd support the lynch in a heartbeat. Still feeling that @Quartz Zebra is Village, and to a lesser extent, @Ivory Dragonfly and @Onyx Flamingo are probably village. My other two village reads (Beagle and Gecko) died last night. On 22/01/2018 at 11:21 PM, Ivory Dragonfly said: I think people have mentioned that unusual role distributions are a thing in AGs, and I’m thinking that the Elims got 2 Skybreakers and a Dustbringer/ Worldhopper to help kill people. To balance it, they also got a really small team. Which is maybe why after 10 kills, 6 of which are likely village kills, we haven’t found one Elim among them. Also, we got more vote manip to help us control the lynch, though with Beagle dead that capacity is diminished. So we need to find an Elim, today. Or we’re going to lose this game. I'll reiterate what others have said: It's perfectly normal to not have found any eliminators by cycle 4, and we have no reason to suspect that they have a smaller than usual team. Yeah, it's not ideal, but we're still several cycles away from the "We need to find an Eliminator today or we lose the game" point. On 22/01/2018 at 11:21 PM, Ivory Dragonfly said: I would like to call both @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Salmon Meerkat out of the shadows to explain their thoughts on recent developments, as neither has posted in a while (I think), and because I have mild elim suspicions on both of them from gut read on Meerkat (I think like 3 players have a bad gut read on him at this point?) and from Ostrich’s inactivity and lack of meaningful content in the posts she does make. I missed this on my first read through today's thread, but noticed it when I quoted the above section, after I had written out my suspicion list. So that actually makes 4 people with a bad gut read on Meerkat. Meerkat, how come so many people's guts are distrustful of you? Edited Tuesday at 05:40 AM by Chartreuse Penguin Spoiler Quote @Chartreuse PenguinI will also address some points here while I'm at it. I'm not really a fan of defending myself when people make a case on me as a villager because they are either an elim trying to lynch me or a villager with tunnel-vision. I don't think this is the case here as Penguins posts give a village vibe yet the points don't really seem to make sense and feel rather like reaching (trying really hard to make it appear like something is a certain way) and I want to comment on them as they seem to have been taken out of context and also make it into a semi-analysis of the Wagons from yesterday. 1. is about parking my vote on vulture following Penguin's vote. My reasons for voting Vulture were entirely my own so I don't really feel as if I followed Penguin and I can't seem to recall Penguins reasons anyway. I will assume here that you missed my post detailing my current reads during day 3 in which I presented my viewpoint on certain players that stood out at the time. I didn't vote my most suspicious reads as it was quite far into the day and I didn't want to bring another wagon up. Stolen Updated Vote CountTuatara : Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant (5)Vulture : Penguin, Flamingo, Albatross(3)Beagle : Kangaroo, Tuatara (2)Ostrich : Zebra (1) This is how the vote count was after my vote, so I don't feel as though I was on a vanity wagon, trying to escape attention as it was very possible at the time that the Vulture lynch could happen. If I felt strongly about Tuatara, I would've voted them initially and beagle was my village read. If I wanted to stay out of the debate, I could've just said I'm not feeling anything and unwilling to vote today. 2. If you want to follow this, I won't say anything tbh. Even I feel there's a chance for an elim to be in the PM group, but again, you say it yourself that you asked beagle an 'what if scenario' of an elim in the PM group and beagle said my name and in return you use that response as a factor in your case. Out of everything, this in particular feels like something an elim would do, as they seem to have set it up so they can cast suspicion on whoever beagle names. And again, it was penguin that asked and then used the response. If there was one thing that I feel seems like elim from Penguin, it'd be this. But even then, this is understandable considering the attention the PM group have been getting so I won't use this as a point to lean elim on Penguin. 3. is the vote count from previous days. As a villager, I feel that one of the best ways to help the village out is to actively vote. No doubt we will vote wrong, but as we learn alignments, we can look back and see the movements and make connections, who was trying to save someone, who was pushing for a lynch etc. So I feel the opposite about this point. And most other players who voted everyday are dead, as villagers. Again, looking at yesterday's vote count and the fact so many players were out to play and then knowing the alignments of two of the wagons helps us much more than people not voting. I feel, and I've said this before, elims are most of the time content to sit out and let the game play out if there isn't an elim up for the lynch. You can disagree with me on this but yesterday we had 18 players who were playing and voting actively. Two of the wagons were village and I think Flamingo is a villager as well. That leaves Vulture, who I feel could be an elim. It also leads me to look at the scenario that Flamingo could be an elim but it's a very small doubt right now like with beagle. I will look back through some of the other players that have been mentioned and that have been escaping attention and make a small analysis and place a vote hopefully (As I have an exam tomorrow so will be busy until after it's finished.) P.s. I don't want to just pursue Vulture today and not going to just use the vote count to damnation them, if they're indeed a villager. I kinda want to hear more from them, after going through their posts yesterday. Penguin explained their suspicions on me and I tried to explain how he had misinterpreted some of my actions. After another reply from Penguin, that was it for our interaction between Penguin and me. I later came online towards the end of day and voted on Meerkat, especially after I mentioned a few times how important it was for everyone to try and vote. At that point, there is really no meaning in me voting someone else, unless I wanted to appear as though I was 100% sure of someone being elim and trying to swing lynch that way. Spoiler Magenta: I've just quickly skimmed the thread and looks like we have an elim up for lynch. Ideally, I wanted to talk about my suspicions today, namely; Sunburnt Toucan, Scorpion, and Vulture to some extent. But that will have to wait. Right now, I'd rather as many people get involved in the lynches as possible, as that will give us much more information when Meerkat flips elim than if we don't vote. So Meerkat. And thanks for the mention Flamingo. And then this is the post from Toucan the following night: Spoiler Quote "Really, Squawk. Do you have any idea how late it currently is?" Vanna muttered to herself after Squawk's shouting had disturbed her rest. She walked over to the town square where the chicken was shouting after making sure she was dressed decently. "Can you keep it down? Normal people are trying to sleep right now." She admonished the loud bird. "I'll answer your questions fully tomorrow, as right now I've got neither the time nor the wakefullness to do so."She started to turn away, but then remembered something. "Though there is one thing I'd like to make note of, just in case. Albatross voted on Meerkat, after expressing suspicion of me. Yet I'd already voted against Meerkat before that. I find it odd that Albatross'd follow along with someone she'd expressed suspicion of, especially when she expressed no such suspicion of Meerkat." With that, Vanna turned away from the square and returned home fro some rest. She got little enough sleep as it was without people suddenly starting shouting in the middle of the night. On 25/01/2018 at 7:55 PM, Onyx Flamingo said: Lastly, this one is kind of meta and I'm not sure of, I imagine being an Elim is stressful. I haven't played an elim yet in SE but the way Axolotl just kind of gave upon day 2 makes me wonder if the stress of being an elim and being a lynch target got to him so he was really saying he was done with the game... I know that tlast one is a bit of a stretch but I can't stop considering it since it was because that post that he wasn't lynched and instead we went after swan which got the pm group into a huge mess, which got beagle killed. I don't think it was on purpose no doubt but that last reason has been on my mind for a while now. I believe Axolotl did get a pinch hitter but I hope Axolotl 1.0 doesnt take offense that I brought that up if he reads this. OC(as I can't find a way to talk about a meta topic IC (I understand the usefulness of cats now)): I've been an elim in past games, and though it can be somewhat stressful, I've never actually found being up for the lynch problematic. In fact, in the cases where I was up for the lynch with people bringing up legitimate arguments, I've always found that to relieve most of the pressure involved with being an elim, rather than add to it. If anything, being up for the lynch as a villager puts more pressure on me than being up as an elim. That might just be me though. (edit: in case it needs to be said, I'm not actually angry at you, Flamingo, but your ping came relatively late in the evening for me, and this seems like a perfect way for Vanna to react) Toucan made the point about me voting on the wagon when I had other suspicions and especially since one of my suspicions was voting there as well. I think Toucan brings up a good point, but at the time, being really honest, I don't even remember Toucan being there after I saw how many people had voted there and was low on time but I did want to cast a vote for the day. Although I was keeping an eye on them, Toucan wasn't my priority after they carried on being in discussions and doing reads on players. But they make this read on me night 4 and the next day Penguin is dead, who was suspicious of me the previous day and night turns and Toucan votes me very soon after Ostrich casts a vote on me. It seems to me as though Toucan has been progressing towards making this vote on me after being more and more suspicious of me the previous day and night. Whilst I don't think elims go this far to try to get one person lynched, I think it is very possible they try to utilise night kills in their favour and try to get another person on the lynch even if the elims don't try to instigate it. Points in their favour: Spoiler Quote Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm... "Ehm, Sir Uinneas... This is not completely true. There was another one who was trying to get a response from the members of this group, though they weren't as obvious about it as Vulture." Vanna got the relevant letter out of her bag. "Flamingo was the last one to speak in the group, and send us all a message directly after accusing beagle and dragonfly. She asked us what we thought of them, and whether we, too, saw a pattern. Now, this is a far cry from actually asking us to agree with her, but the statement itself could have been made to try and lead us to a certain conclusion. Otherwise, what would the point of asking a specific number of villagers for input be, if she could have asked everyone in the thread. I'm not actually certain if this means anything, but I wanted to make sure this information was available." Vanna quickly walked back to the bench she'd claimed after correcting the large Shardbearer. She hadn't actually wanted to confront him, but she felt this was not the time to keep information back. Once she was properly seated she opened her notebook again. She'd probably be done by the end of the day. Maybe earlier if she could find the time and will to push through. Pearl Chameleon Hide contents Chameleon has been accused of blending into the background several times. I initially disagreed after going over everything he'd said. He held a pretty big speech during the first day in which he explained his various suspicions and trusts before voting against Dingo. He then became quiet for a bout a day, until he discussed what had happened to Elyle(Swan) in the night after that. Initially, despite no talking that often, his two big speeches seemed to contain quite a lot of content, and they do. However, he has said very little besides those two topics. What he has said seems sensible, but the D1 lynch and the Swan lynch where both relatively safe topics as well. I hope Chameleon'll share some more of his thoughts with us, because right now he just seems rather chameleon-y. This could be because a lack of time, of course. Several of his posts definitely support that idea, but until I've heard more from him I can't rule out murderous intent either. Plum Rhino Hide contents Another case of suddenly-a-completely-different-character-syndrome. This is starting to worry me. I mean, one case is odd, but this is the third or fourth, I think, and that's just scary (OC: or maybe I've been playing too much Persona 5 recently). As before, I'll be ignoring most of what has been said before the character change. Though it might be relevant in some cases, you can't really ask someone for explanation on what their previous self did. Now, the new Rhino hasn't said too much of substance yet, but he has presented a list of suspects and is presenting reasoning for why he suspects or trusts people. I don't think he would be doing that if he was a murderer. Or at the very least, he'd be taking the transition more slowly, so I think Rhino's innocent. Quartz Zebra Hide contents I wonder if Zebra was part of a city guard before moving here. He definitely seems to be doing the investigation thing quite thoroughly. Zebra has said a lot, so I won't be talking about most of that. What I would like to point to is his post near the end of the lynch yesterday, in which he summarized the main arguments so that everyone who wasn't caught up could quickly figure out what was going on and vote. This is really going above and beyond what would normally be expected, I think, and probably wouldn't be a thing that one of the murderers would come up with. That can't be ruled out, of course, but it's posts like that that make me trust someone. Zebra also recognized his own forming bias against the Oxblood group, and reacted with that. Now, this could have been a murderer recognizing that beagle was at risk and changing his read to match what was actually going on, but that seems unlikely, as there's nothing wrong about being wrong, but holding a negative view of a villager that is a potential threat makes it easier to push for a lynch without being suspected. Overall, I'm inclined tot rust Zebra And some more reads of toucan felt like they were coming from a genuine desire to try to solve players. This gave some reason to think they could be a villager as well. Conclusion: I started off with having a slight suspicion on Toucan, which developed more due to them not having a firm stance and avoiding voting in the initial cycles. The suspicion was lessened after they contributed to discussion in the thread. However, now I feel there's a small chance they could be village but more likely to be an elim. I will vote Toucan for now and possibly move if I think there's a more likely elim. I will try to get my general overview so far of the players up soon. Edited January 27, 2018 by Magenta Albatross
Mint Heron Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 (edited) Elion, it turned out, was married to a family friend, Helina, and had two girls, Larsah and Adani. The sight of little Adani crawling around shook Kharsis more than he could ever admit; in all these years he’d somehow never imagined that Elion would marry, let alone have children. There is a tale of five blind menAnd now they had invited him over for dinner. Kharsis sniffed the air appreciatively and sighed in contentment; he hadn’t smelled this tangy mixture of spices in the air since what felt like a lifetime ago. It brought back memories of the times when Dad had still been alive, when Mum hadn’t spent all her time in the betting rings. Those had been good times.Who finally acknowledge the elephant in the roomPerhaps it really had been a lifetime ago. Those memories felt like they belonged to a different person, now.“The elephant is like a study pillar,” claims the first manAs he thought, Kharsis ate his curry. It tasted of pure joy in his mouth, something that let him know that he had truly come home. Almighty above, he hadn’t had green rockbud curry in so long. He took his time, savoring every bite.“No, you are mistaken,” cries the second. “The elephant is like a solid pipe.”“Where’re you from, Uncle?” Larsah asked.“No,” a third says from slightly further away. “The elephant is like a wall.”Kharsis’s spoon clattered in his bowl, falling from his open fingers. That’s right, Kharsis realised with a jolt. I wasn’t here when Larsah was born. As far as she knows I might as well be from New Amia. A lump rose in his throat. “I came from Rennan,” Kharsis said, thinking of the best way to explain it all to this child. He glanced at Elion and hesitantly added, “Things weren’t so good for me or your dad when we were younger, but, uh, it’s much better now. I left to get away and see the world. Roshar is so big, and Rennan is just a tiny part of it.”The fourth asks why there is an elephant on Roshar.“Where did you go?” Larsah said.And the fifth barely knows there is an elephant at all. Kharsis cast his mind back. “Alethkar, Jah Keved, Thaylenah,” he said, ticking off his fingers. “The Reshi Isles too.”A mighty king and a wise man, for the two are often separable, comes by and listens to the clamour.“Wow,” Larsah said, eyes wide. There was a note of awe in her voice. “What was it like?”He listens, and thinks to himself, All of them are right.“Let him eat, Larsah,” Helina chided.The blind men cannot understand thisGratefully, Kharsis picked up his spoon.The truth, the king muses, has many aspects“Kharsis, you never did finish that story in the tavern,” Elion said. “How did you end up getting to Thaylen City?” Next to him, Larsah perked up in her seat. Just as each of the blind men has touched one part of the elephant and claimed to know the entire elephant from it.Kharsis set his spoon down again mournfully. “Well, I still needed to earn enough money for the boat fare,” he began. “It doesn’t sound like it, but delivering messages through Kharbranth can be downright dangerous. There was that time, when I tried to take a shortcut through a dark alley, when I saw three men -- heavily armed -- walking towards me…”All right. But, uh, if what you’re saying is correct, then what is the elephant?The elephant is not the point Edited for format. Edited January 27, 2018 by Mint Heron 1
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 @Amber Vulture I do believe there are elims among the inactives, but I put my vote on an active because right now I can't differentiate one inactive from another or know which ones are suspicious. Vocal players I can at least get a read on. Also, at least a couple of times it's been mentioned that Ostrich 1.0 claimed to have game notes. Either they were lying, or they took them with them wherever they went, because I can't find them. @Ivory Dragonfly What do you mean by the evidence seeming carefully arranged? I started the voting on Albatross by citing Toucan's reasoning, then Toucan came on and cited their own reasoning. I don't know for certain if Toucan is good or evil, but their logic made sense so I voted along with it. I do think I'll move my vote, however, because Scorpion said something that makes me suspicious, more so than on Albatross. Scorpion said "why don't y'all think about why you're trusting Ivory so much". This reminds me of something from LG34: the last cycles, Meta's defense was that Len had no reason to be trusted. The thing with this accusation, then and now, is it requires no evidence. I read Scorpion's post as them wanting to sow suspicion and put a retaliatory vote on Ivory with no good reasoning.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 The village square had become far quieter than it had been before. On previous days it had been a hub of activity and discussion, but now it was becoming quieter. It wasn't just the missing villagers either. 'Heh, missing... Is it really so hard to think of them as... Yeah, I suppose it is.' Those that where still around seemed to be becoming quieter too. Hopefully discussion will liven up again if we can find one of the murderers. Until then, Vanna'd just have to do her best to contribute her part to keep discussion going. "I... I think I agree with Ostrich about Scorpion. I didn't really see him doing anything suspicious until he made that accusation of Dragonfly. There might be some truth to it, but the way he worded it seemed purely intended to cause distrust, rather than prove anything. That, to me, suggests that he doesn't think there actually is any proof, as otherwise he'd have mentioned that he would try to prove his point later, rather than just telling us to distrust him." Vanna took a deep breath. Next came the bit that would be difficult. She hated getting into confrontations with people, but that seemed to be necessary right now. 'Just be like one of those experienced city-watchmen, or a heroic Radiant, or something else that's not you, and you'll be fine.' "That having been said, I'm not yet done with Albatross(@Magenta Albatross)." Vanna turned to the villager in question as she said the name. "First of all, I wanted to make sure I understand something correctly. Your vote on Meerkat was made because you wanted to vote, and he had a lot of votes on him already, correct? That seems to be what you're saying, but I want to make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here." "Then, there's your suspicion of me. Your core argument seems to be my behavior during the second day, right? Your other argument seems to be that I lack firm conclusions on a number of villagers, but as I pointed out before, most of the villagers I am unsure about are villagers you haven't even given opinions on when you where going through the more involved villagers. I don't think it's a particularly odd that I can't form solid opinions on those staying at the fringes. Apart from these two things you mention a number of things you've seen that could have been done by either an innocent or a murderer, as well as several things that makes you consider it more likely that I'm innocent. But your conclusion int eh end is that you think it's extremely likely I'm one of the murderers." She paused for a second to move a stray lock of hair out of her face. "I really don't see how you concluded it was so likely that I was one of the murderers. I guess I can see where your initial suspicion was coming from. It took me awhile to get a solid idea of who was doing what, and until I did, i was mostly just reacting to what happened directly around me. Yet I don't think you've marked anything I've done as directly suspicious, apart form my vote on you, since the third or fourth day, yet it seems you're suspicion has grown, not diminished in that time, based on your conclusion." Vanna raised a hand to forestall a response. "There's one argument that I'm ignoring, of course, and that's the idea that I've been planning to make an attempt to lynch you for a while now as part of a plan hatched by the murderers. That's an accusation you can't expect me to defend myself against, as there's no proof for it either way. Peng has died. I voted on you. Those are facts. Your interpretation that it is part of some grand scheme is just an interpretation though, and one that is more far-fetched than some of the simpler suggestions, such as the idea that I'm just somewhat suspicious of you. I'd also like to note that I've never brought up Peng as proof of your guilt, which is something I would have likely done if killing him had been part of a master-plan, right? The one thing I do take away from that argument is that you believe very strongly in your own innocence. If you didn't, I don't think you would have brought up a complot as part of your argument. That's a point in your favor, I suppose." Vanna presented a hard face and a sure voice, but it took a lot of effort to do so. For all she knew, Albatross was one of the murderers, and getting called out like this could make him snap into violence. Or maybe she was wrong, and currently gravely insulting an innocent. Still, without the facade she was currently throwing up, she likely wouldn't have been able to confront the accusation at all.
Sage Kangaroo Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 11 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: See, there was never really anything for me to respond to. And yes, I know my suspicions have been somewhat vague. They’re going to be, since I don’t have any strong reads, nor do I feel like taking the time or effort to do big in-depth analysis, when it’s failed to produce anything useful for me in the past (and doesn’t seem to be doing any good here so far either). This isn't really the most helpful attitude. If you won't contribute because you don't feel like your contributions will be effective, and if you don't stimulate discussion because no one else is, than you won't really be the most helpful villager. 11 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: And now conveniently there’s a bandwagon on me. Yay. Yeah, I think what I just said should cover the points against me. I’d sit back and just say lynch me, but that doesn’t help the village any, so instead why don’t ya’ll think about why you’re trusting Ivory so much when they’ve done nothing to back up your trust in them? Two votes do not a bandwagon make. Fuschia's vote is a bit bandwagon-y, but even they tried to put some thought behind their vote. And that came after your post, and still only brought your "bandwagon" to a grand total of three votes. The points you made really didn't help you, and I'm not loving your attitude. And as far as Ivory goes, I've seen plenty of things to back up my trust in Ivory. And while it's possible that they're just a very good player who's managed to pull the wool over my eyes, I feel like that's not accurate. Although that's probably how I'd feel if they'd pulled the wool over my eyes. So yeah. IKYK. Anyway, I'm going to stick with my gut because I don't particularly feel like taking my vote off of you and adding it onto one of the many other nascent bandwagons, or perchance starting a new one.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 Alright, I’ve been using other people’s vote counts so much that I figure it’s only fair I make one myself. Don’t know how to do the strike through thing, so only current votes in this count: 4-Scorpion: Fuschia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Sage Kangaroo, Ivory Dragonfly(I vote for him later this post) 3-Weasel: Violet Axolotl, Pearl Chameleon, Mauve Crocodile 1-Dragonfly: Amethyst Scorpion 1-Albatross: Sunburst Toucan 1-Toucan: Magenta Albatross 1-Vulture: Mint Heron Alright, we have a nice field of candidates, and half of the village has voted. That’s encouraging. Speaking of voting, I should probably do the same, now that I’ve had some time to look over people’s arguments. (Update: And now have done so, voting on Scorpion.) Starting from the bottom with the lynch candidates: Vulture: I have a bit of a village read on her, and I don’t agree with Heron’s logic for the lynch. While it’s fine to monitor players you have a null read on, lynching them for it is something else entirely. Albatross/Toucan: They’re kind of inseparable at this point, so I’m lumping them together because I have the same conclusion on them. I think they’re both tunneling villagers, with Albatross tunneling less than Toucan is. Toucan and Albatross are both using fairly ordinary posts to cast suspicion and doubt on each other, and the determination showed by both makes me read villager, as I don’t think an Elim would tie themselves this fully to a lynch candidate. It’ll be interesting if the Elims kill Toucan to try to cast doubt on Albatross, though, or vice versa. I see the cases in the arguments you are making against each other, Vanna and Albatross, but I think actions speak louder than words at this point. Village read on both with some lingering suspicions on Toucan that I can’t really shake for some reason. Also, you two should be the model for how to civilly disagree with another player. Dragonfly: Hi. Weasel: My initial suspicion. Hasn’t posted anything this cycle, even in self defense, making me wonder if he’s trying to go quiet just to throw us off. Notably, since he isn’t here to explain his thought processes behind his posts, I have no choice but to interpret them how I see fit. And right now, they look suspect to me. Scorpion: Not looking too good right now, though my perception of him might be slightly colored since he did accuse me earlier, so keep that in mind as you read this. I try to avoid commenting on myself unless I’m defending myself against a lynch, but the case for Scorpion is centered around me somewhat, so I kind of have no choice. Basically, Scorpion’s one of those people that I’ve been a bit suspicious of for a while just based on tone. All his previous posts, looking back at them, are really NAI and I can’t help but think that’s how he wanted them to look. Today, he’s made a weird vote on me, done for fairly nebulous reasons, and then attempts to justify this vagueness by saying analysis wouldn’t have helped. Which is a statement I can’t disagree with more. If nobody posts analysis, how are we supposed to find Elims? This was our big problem D4- no one contributed significant lynch analysis, we lynched on gut read, and had a runaway bandwagon on a villager. Finally, the one major post he did make before today, his vote on Weasel, is not being referenced at all. It looked kind of weird when it was made, as Weasel responded immediately to it then, almost as if the disagreement was set up. (It’s notable that today, Weasel hasn’t responded to anything against him with the speed and passion with which he responded to Scorpion). But today, Scorpion is trying to dissociate from that earlier vote, saying he “doesn’t feel good or bad about Weasel directly.” Based on his earlier post, that’s not the case. So, Amethyst Scorpion. To end, I’ll say that I retain my suspicion of Violet Axolotl and now somewhat suspect Emerald Falcon, though since neither are getting lynched it’d be a wasted vote. Plus, I distrust Scorpion more. I’m actually pretty happy that our leading lynch candidates are both people I have Elim reads on, but knowing my track record they’ll probably both flip village.
Azure Mouse Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 :{( Time is a pain. Anyway, this has been a quite cycle. Sorry for posting so late in it. First off, going to update my list of reads: Amethyst Scorpion - Update since last cycle - posts seemed useful. Probably a slight town lean. Amber Vulture - Update - still sorta neutral. I may need to revisit after doing others, or consider the broader context of the posts to make a better judgement. Emerald Falcon - Hmm.. 7 posts. Think that's the fewest so far... 1.0 was not helpful. 2.0 has been here a week, but has come across as being pretty confused the whole time. The only post of note is this cycle's. A bunch of psychobabble (albeit useful psychobabble). The advise to properly consider votes while avoiding confirmation bias is fair. But then all they do is just poke Scorpion, so not adding all that much otherwise. Really hard to give a read one or another. Fuschia Ostrich - 1.0 is a bit random, and gave no useful info. 2.0. We've only had a couple of days of them, and they've only made around half a dozen posts in that time, with very little content. I appreciate that it's hard to catch up on everything - I'm struggling to get coherent thoughts of everyone and I've been playing the whole game. Tone makes me a little uneasy maybe, but not enough to shift my read of neutral. Indigo Weasel - There's something about their tone that I don't necessarily like. Hard to pin down though. Really don't like their vote on Meerkat though... (Day 4) probably slight maf lean. Ivory Dragonfly - Magenta Albatross - Mauve Crocodile - Mint Heron - I'm getting a townie vibe from Heron actually. I haven't paid them much attention, but I see they made a PM safety now, which actually sorta explained why it was a problem, unlike some of the one line comments I got at the start that weren't very helpful. Seems they're maybe suspicious of Penguin, but I'd like to hear more about their suspicions in general I think. Onyx Flamingo - Pearl Chameleon - Not necessarily super active, but their posts have all been pretty high quality so far, and have been sharing their opinions. Probably leaning town on them. Plum Rhinoceros - There's a bit of a slow start with their posts, but they've seemed to pick up some momentum. They're doing some good analysis I think. Leaning town. Quartz Zebra - Some good content and analysis - reading town on them. Sage Kangaroo - Sapphire Elephant - Sunburst Toucan - Violet Axolotl - Is probably voting randomly and pretending there's some logic to it. The vibe I get is that they're probably village, but have decided to use a time efficient strategy that is detrimental to the village. Hmm. Again, out of time. Half a dozen still go through. Don't think I'm seeing the Scorp lynch, so I'd be more likelys not to vote Weasel, who as I say above, I have a slight maf lean on. But given it's slight, and there's a fair bit of time left on the clock, I'll hold my on them till closer the end of the cycle - I'd rather not contribute to a vote now and potentially discourage aditional discussion and other lynch options.
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 This seems familiar to me. Happens all the time, I gain suspicion for not posting enough detail. Oh well, I don’t want to die, but at least maybe ya’ll will learn something from my death. Not much, but something.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: This seems familiar to me. Happens all the time, I gain suspicion for not posting enough detail. Oh well, I don’t want to die, but at least maybe ya’ll will learn something from my death. Not much, but something. "Then how about you fill in the missing detail, Scorpion? I doubt we'll learn much if you're village, but if you've got a good reason for your suspicion of Nolan then it's important you share it with us." Vanna sighed at the other's seeming stubbornness. "It's not like we want to kill you. Well, most of us don't want that anyway, but if you're unwilling or incapable of defending yourself you don't exactly make things easier for us."
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 11:30 PM, Emerald Falcon said: Chameleon above said this. Seems logical, yes? Upon first glance, it makes sense, fits with your half-remembered thoughts on Weasel's actions. You, being a conscientious, methodical SE player () decide to go investigate for yourself, looking to see if the pattern described here fits with what you see. You realize there's not a lot to go off of, but the pattern seems to fit. From there, it seems logical to, if not accept the conclusion (that Weasel has been acting like an Elim) at least weight it as being more likely than you thought before. Where did you make a mistake? You went looking for a pattern. You saw a logical argument, and looked for examples that supported it. Now, later in the cycle when little more has come to light and you feel the need to place a vote, you feel justified in voting for Weasel, even if you can't quite remember why. You say you have a bad gut read, that they seem the most suspicious, you cast a vote and join the consensus. You just engaged in pretty serious confirmation bias, without ever intending it. (And this isn't even the worst example, since at least you're not engaging in bias over a gut read, which also happens.) Does that mean that suspicion will be wrong? Hell if I know. Weasel might well be an elim; heck it's even fairly plausible that they are, like I said, what Chameleon said made sense, and what do you know, when I went looking for that same pattern, I saw it. Just think twice before adding another vote without seriously considering and investigating other options. Three is enough for now. Give them a chance to respond while we discuss what else we have available. Not quite. I did wonder if I was engaging in confirmation bias, but I concluded that I did not. It's true that I saw something that made me suspicious of Weasel that made me review their posts. However, I wasn't looking for examples of a conclusion I was already set on. I had come across evidence that made Weasel look suspicious (their post against Swan) which prompted the hypothesis that Weasel is an elim. I then went back over their other posts to see whether they supported or refuted the hypothesis. This wasn't about a gut read or half-remembered intuitions. I did indeed go looking to see if there were any patterns, because patterns are more telling than one-off posts. And I would argue that they make better arguments when it comes to deciding if someone is an elim or villager. I wasn't looking for a pattern to show that Weasel is an elim. I was looking for a pattern period. Whether that pattern seemed village or elim was something to determine if/after I found one. On 1/26/2018 at 9:19 AM, Sunburst Toucan said: Several villagers had been asking her about her conclusions about who was likely innocent, and who wasn't. She supposed this was fair enough as she'd spent the last few days making notes. "There's only one that I trust without serious reservations right now, and that would be Zebra. He seems to be focused not just on his own investigation, but in helping others do theirs, which isn't something I expect a murderer to do. My instincts are telling me that Nolan (dragonfly) is innocent too, but I don't trust my instincts in this regard, and the fact that I haven't been able to find why I feel that way worries me. There are others I'm not really suspecting right now, but I wouldn't say I trust them either." "Now, regarding my direct suspicions. I'm wary of Albatross right now. His small contribution during the meerkat lynch just looked strange, as he claimed suspicion of three people, and then voted on someone else entirely, saying that this was important for gathering information. Given that at that point the lynch of Meerkat seemed all but guaranteed, i don't see what kind of information could be gained from anyone else adding their votes." "I'm also still waiting for @Sage Kangaroo to answer my question about his vote retractions during the early days. That could have had a very innocent reason, but until he shares his reasons I'm suspicious of him as well." "Lastly, there's Axolotl with his new voting system. If that system gets results then I might trust him more, but right now it seems like he's just throwing up a smoke-screen to hide behind." I appreciate the response. But to be honest, I'm not sure if this post makes me feel less uneasy. You've given a strong village read of one player and a very hesitant village read of another which is something you've done with many players. You only seem to truly reveal your suspicions when it comes to voting. On 1/25/2018 at 10:21 PM, Fuchsia Ostrich said: I'm actually going to make a soft defense of Toucan from Chamelion. Last cycle they made an accusation of Albatross for switching suspicions that sounded to me like it had logic behind it, so I'm reading slightly village on them. On 1/26/2018 at 1:18 AM, Fuchsia Ostrich said: Flamingo pointed out that Penguin suspected Albatross before Penguin died, and Toucan also suspects Albatross. Before I hadn't realized that these were the same bird. I'm going to put a vote down on Albatross because the Penguin kill seems to have been in defense of them, and even before the kill they had done a suspicious vote move. If Albatross is lynched and does flip evil, I'm going to be heavily suspicious of Chamelion. Thanks for pointing out Toucan's suspicions of Albatross. I went back, and it does make me feel slightly less suspicious. I'm still wary because that was posted on a night turn and is followed by Toucan's vote on Albatross today. Part of what worries me is that Toucan only ever truly seems to post suspicions when it comes to voting. In other words, the theory is that elim!Toucan posts suspicions out of necessity to vote and votes out of necessity to remain unsuspicious. I can understand why you'd be suspicious of me in if Albatross turns out to be an elim. But I would like to point out that I've mentioned continuously that I have a bad gut feeling on Albatross. It's true that I haven't truly committed to an elim read of Albatross, and I can imagine that being read as two elims distancing themselves from one another. But I really do feel like I need to review Albatross' posts before committing, and they've just been low on my priority list of players to analyze and I don't have enough time to review that entire list. I also agree with Kangaroo that I doubt the elims killed Penguin to protect Albatross. It's too easy for the village to decipher that kind of strategy. I'm not saying that this means Albatross is a villager. Regardless of Albatross' alignment, I don't think the Penguin kill had anything to do with Albatross. 23 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: Weasel - I found this post to be suspicious the first time I read it, but when I went back and looked at all of their posts, it almost seemed to be more in keeping with their general playstyle, and I ended up coming to a similar problem as I did with Axolotl - if they were an Elim, I'd think they wouldn't post a line like that, as it draws too much attention. I disagree that the post you linked attracts much attention. I read it as something that was intended to be humorous and lighthearted. Not an actual suggestion. 23 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: I type all this out, and can't be bothered changing it now, but the Ostrich - Axolotl dialogue at the end of last cycle seemed incredibly weird to me, looking over it now. Ostrich chose fairly weak reasons for lynching Axolotl - eventually, someone has to start a bandwagon with the vote manips, otherwise we wouldn't get anywhere - and then immediately drops the line the moment Axolotl defends themself. That could be a villager changing their mind, but it feels more like a question from the same team designed more to make Axolotl seem less suspicious than anything else. I'm hoping to see more of the new Ostrich before I judge - it seems unfair to lynch them before they get a chance to say something - but I'll be keeping a close eye on how both of them act - particularly around each other, in the reread and going into the future. I went to look back over this exchange, and it struck me as odd when I read it the first time as well. The possibility you mention didn't occur to me so I didn't read it as suspicious at the time. Still not sure how suspicious this is given that Dragonfly also misinterpreted Axolotl's post so it might just be one of those things where the humor wasn't very obvious? It does seem worth looking into though. Quote But good Elims, I should think, can fake a village tone. And we really need to look into players like Vulture, Elephant and Zebra more. They sound village. I have a village read on them, and all three have posted great analysis. But they could have ulterior motives. We need to be careful. @Ivory Dragonfly I'm starting to get vaguely suspicious of you with the same reasoning, but I think that's the SE paranoia kicking in. We shouldn't put our focus on players that seem "too village." It's a distraction, and I think it was one of the reasons that Beagle garnered suspicion. I agree that we should be careful, but I don't think it's useful to analyze someone's post because they're too active and/or sound to much like a villager. Our focus should be those we are suspicious of while we keep an eye on those who don't seem suspicious at the moment. So Toucan votes on Albatross. Ostrich also votes on Albatross (later switches to Scorpion) and defends Toucan. Ostrich and Axolotl had an exchange yesterday that could potentially be two elims distancing themselves. Albatross votes for Toucan with a notable, lengthy analysis. Common suspicions who are all connected somehow. Though I do think Axolotl's voting system looks too risky for an elim. I still think Weasel is the most likely to be elim, but I would rather gain information from the lynch. So I propose that we lynch Toucan. If Toucan flips village, then I'd consider Albatross cleared. If they flip elim, I will be more suspicious of Ostrich and of Axolotl by association. I highly doubt that Scorpion is an elim. The way they're posting attracts a lot of attention, as does their vote on Dragonfly. Practically everyone has a village read on Dragonfly at this point, so I'm not sure what benefit an elim would gain from trying to plant suspicions of Dragonfly in the thread. Why not go after a villager with a higher chance of being lynched? It sounds more like a villager with honest suspicions that they want to discuss. I don't like this. The evidence against Scorpion isn't strong. The Meerkat lynch felt the same way. I'm going to trust myself this time around. This is a very bad idea. Also going to note that I have a village read on Sage Kangaroo from their recent posts. Sorry for not expanding, but I already spent way more time on this post then I planned.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 Sorry Guys that I have taken so long toplace a vote this cycle I have just been kind of waffling between multiple candidates and whether I should start a new vote or not. At this time it looks like most of the town thinks that weasel or scorpion are suspicious and if I vote for someone else at this point I don't think it would do much unless there was a major swing in the last 4 hours... but I don't really want that to happen because I feel like both of these guys are possible elims with hopefully one of them being an actual elim. I'm still; not sure which of them to vote for so if someone could share with me and the group of pros and cons in their mind between these two choices it would probably help me make a decision.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 So, I think Chameleon is correct here. Scorpion probably wouldn’t stick his neck out like that if he was elim. We can’t make the same mistake 2 cycles in a row. I don’t think scorpion is being particularly helpful right now, and I might disagree with their opinion on analysis, but I can’t lynch him for it . Not after what happened with Meerkat. So, Amethyst Scorpion. You may be unhelpful, but Indigo Weasel is looking more suspicious than you are. See my previous logic for voting on him. Lynching Toucan for info would be interesting, @Pearl Chameleon, but I’d rather lynch a person who I think is an Elim. Toucan can be left alive- we can lynch her next cycle if she’s suspicious, and I’d rather hit an Elim this round to help improve our village/elim ratio, which is pretty bad at this point if we assume 5 Elims. We could be in a very bad position by next round if we don’t hit an elim, especially if one of their workdhoppers (if they have one) draws Division. If we assume 2-3 of our villagers don’t contribute to the lynch voting each round, with a little bit of vote manip the Elims could control the lynch by next round. So let’s take down someone we think is suspicious. Also, I’d say a Weasel lynch still gives info, as if he flips elim we can look at the people who tried to swing the lynch to scorpion, especially Falcon. Those are my thoughts for now. A bit busy but I’ll try to be on one more time before the cycle ends.
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 7 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said: This isn't really the most helpful attitude. If you won't contribute because you don't feel like your contributions will be effective, and if you don't stimulate discussion because no one else is, than you won't really be the most helpful villager. Wow, that’s...not what I said. I have been active in the discussion, if you haven’t noticed, just not with the same approach as you. I don’t really want to be told I’m being unhelpful for playing the way I’ve found is more fun and works out better.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 The only thing I don't like about voting for weasel is that he hasn't been online for over 24 hours now.... and maybe he is just viewing the thread with his other account, bu I think an elim would be more active than that i don't know. 8 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Wow, that’s...not what I said. I have been active in the discussion, if you haven’t noticed, just not with the same approach as you. I don’t really want to be told I’m being unhelpful for playing the way I’ve found is more fun and works out better. I think what he is saying is that you haven't been adding much new information to the discussion which means it isn't helpful to the discussion. I don't think he meant it to be offensive or anything. I think he was just trying to point out that he would like to see more of your thought process of how you are voting that is all. I will cast my vote for Weasel for now because if he can't be bothered to show up in the last 24 hours I can't think of a reason a villager would do that besides RL but I can think of reasons an elim might try to appear inactive. That paired with the fact that several days ago weasel was the first to vote for swan not beagle which no-one brought up at all when everyone was accusing beagle of swinging everything.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 So, I kind of got sick yesterday and that was fun. Not much I could do about posting. I did catch up and take notes and had quoted these particular posts to comment on so let me do that and then catch up the rest of what I missed while I was less than healthy. 6 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: Axolotl - The old Axolotl said some things that were kind of suspicious, but everything to do with the new Axolotl seems fairly NAI to me (which could mean they're a good Elim or just that the old Axolotl had a strange playstyle that seemed suspicious to both of us.) If anything, the 'new voting system' post seems like it would be suicide for an actual Eliminator to post - there are so many easier ways to justify voting on someone that won't draw attention - that I can't really see an actual Eliminator doing it. But then, the fact that I (and presumably other players) can't see an Eliminator doing it might mean they do it for exactly that reason, but then you start heading into IKYK territory, which makes it impossible to decide anything at all. So, generally - either they're village, or they're a very gutsy Eliminator that deliberately drew attention to themself. I personally agree that Axolotl doesn't seem like an elim just for his "secret voting" techniques. Do I think it's a bad idea? Yes. But not one an elim would do. 6 hours ago, Mint Heron said: I'm not too familiar with the metagame anymore, but from QF29 it looks like players don't analyse evil kills. If so, it would be a viable strategy for the Sympathisers to kill anyone who is too suspicious of them, with the expectation that nobody will look at the kills much. 'Course, I could be completely wrong about how things are. Aside from QF29 I haven't been here for a long time. Mmmm I'd say players do still analyze the kills pretty often. But the elims tend to pick people who won't give the village any info from their death. Not someone who previously spouted suspicion of them on one of the very last cycles. 2 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: "We are way more spread out which will hopefully mean we get a better discussion as we try to convince each other of a most likely elim" Squawk honked nasally. "As for who I am voting for I am in a bit of a toss up. I would like to vote for axolotl for the reasons I stated last night but seeing how he isn't even on the board yet.... I'm not sure If I want to diversify that much. I think if you wanted to vote someone you found suspicious that early in the cycle then you should go for it. If you want your biggest suspicion lynched than you should be pushing them as early as possible. This part of your post just sounds like a lack of committing to who to lynch and staying out of the limelight by not pushing hard for someone you suspect. Okay I'll have to catch up the rest of the way from what I missed yesterday. I'd say sorry, but I couldn't really help getting sick so I blame life.:P
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 36 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I think if you wanted to vote someone you found suspicious that early in the cycle then you should go for it. If you want your biggest suspicion lynched than you should be pushing them as early as possible. This part of your post just sounds like a lack of committing to who to lynch and staying out of the limelight by not pushing hard for someone you suspect. Isee how it could look that way but after I was the first to accuse meerkat yesterday and he untimately got lynched I don't trust my suspicions as much as i once did.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Isee how it could look that way but after I was the first to accuse meerkat yesterday and he untimately got lynched I don't trust my suspicions as much as i once did. Yeah I getcha, but you can't let one lynch stop you from trying. Just gotta keep on going. So, I'm really disappointed that I got sick and zoned out from everything yesterday because I was crazy busy the day before and that leaves me with trying to rush and catch up on this cycle and not getting to add much input until the cycle is almost over. I don't think that Scorpion or Weasel will flip elim and I'm concerned that they may end up being the lynch for the day. I very highly doubt an elim would vote Dragonfly at this point because nearly everyone has said they trust them at this point. That would be much too risky a target for an elim to go after and I don't think that would just boil down to an IKYK because it doesn't seem worth it. I.E. Scorpion has almost gotten lynched for it. I don't see Weasel doing much outside of his regular play style and people saying they "have a bad gut read on him". I'm not saying he couldn't be an elim, but I'd rather see people voting for actual suspicions. I know people are saying stuff about his vote on meerkat looking odd but didn't nearly everyone who voted, vote on Meerkat? I'll go look at what was so off about his vote in particular. Quote Okay, people, I'm not lurked. I'm just was reallyyy busy. I don't know what else to say... I see people already decided who is most suspicious... so... Meerkat? This was the "suspicious vote"? I think if he were an elim then he'd have just avoided voting all together if he'd been busy irl and not had time to fake suspicions on someone. Elims don't like adding to a late bandwagon without giving reasoning. Elims are normally less suspicious in their behavior than the villagers because they are incredibly more paranoid and check their posts a bunch to make sure they sound right. That's why it's so hard to find them. I agree with not voting on people like Dragonfly because they add to so much of the discussion and are one of my biggest village reads. In a case like that you just have to focus on the people lower on your list and work from there. One thing that I'd like to point out to @Ivory Dragonfly is that I don't think you should be skipping player's reads like Toucan's just because you don't want to be seen as copying them. That's an excellent way to let an elim slip by your radar. You should be looking at everything everyone says. I'm mostly bringing this up because I've been thinking about Toucan more lately and do see her giving a lot of "analysis" but not giving a ton of reads on people. I've had an elim do that to me and I trusted them for most of the game and died before I could voice my suspicions. So I'd like to say it now and go back through Toucan's posts again. 7 hours ago, Azure Mouse said: Hmm. Again, out of time. Half a dozen still go through. Don't think I'm seeing the Scorp lynch, so I'd be more likelys not to vote Weasel, who as I say above, I have a slight maf lean on. But given it's slight, and there's a fair bit of time left on the clock, I'll hold my on them till closer the end of the cycle - I'd rather not contribute to a vote now and potentially discourage aditional discussion and other lynch options. This post sounds a little non committal to me. I think you should still vote because if you don't get a chance to get back on then you don't add to the lynch and people tend to skim over that sometimes because they're so focused on who did actually vote. I think for now I will go with Toucan because she seems to be posting a lot without leaning too far in one direction or the other on players and elims love to play the middle ground. I think there'd be plenty of interaction between them and the other players to let us get a lot of info from seeing her alignment. I'm honestly just not crazy about the other lynch candidates and I think Toucan is a better option. I'd really like to have more time to go through their posts again but seeing how it's so close to cycle's end I need to vote now.
Sage Kangaroo Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Wow, that’s...not what I said. I have been active in the discussion, if you haven’t noticed, just not with the same approach as you. I don’t really want to be told I’m being unhelpful for playing the way I’ve found is more fun and works out better. I haven't really noticed, but that's not really the point. Looking back, I do see that you've been more active than your post replies, but I was specifically responding to the attitude that post seemed to be revealing. And, while I'm sure none of us want to be told that, sometimes we have to be told things we don't want to hear. And I feel I need to say that "More fun and works out better" for you isn't necessarily what's best for everyone else. I'm fairly certain that there are plenty of people who "have more fun" and feel it "works out better," while doing fairly awful things. I would include an example, but comparisons don't tend to work out well in these sorts of situations. 9 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said: 21 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: See, there was never really anything for me to respond to. And yes, I know my suspicions have been somewhat vague. They’re going to be, since I don’t have any strong reads, nor do I feel like taking the time or effort to do big in-depth analysis, when it’s failed to produce anything useful for me in the past (and doesn’t seem to be doing any good here so far either). This isn't really the most helpful attitude. If you won't contribute because you don't feel like your contributions will be effective, and if you don't stimulate discussion because no one else is, than you won't really be the most helpful villager. Hmm. I probably over-reacted to that. I read it more as: "I'm not posting because I don't have anything to respond to-" Looking back, I do see that you posted a bit more than I had realized. But that's not the best attitude. "-And my suspicions are vague because I don't feel like taking the time or effort to form them, because it's failed in the past and seems to be failing everyone else right now." Yeah I misinterpreted that post. Sorry about that. Kind of glad I actually went back and looked over your posts, because this was almost one huge scathing rant. Glad that didn't happen. Guess I was in a bad mood. 1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I think what he is saying is that you haven't been adding much new information to the discussion which means it isn't helpful to the discussion. I don't think he meant it to be offensive or anything. I think he was just trying to point out that he would like to see more of your thought process of how you are voting that is all. This. I really wasn't trying to be offensive: That's never my intention. I do see that a bit of my frustration leaked through into my post, and I apologize for that. Also, reading over your posts made me realize that my suspicions of you kind of lacked a basis besides what's happened in the last few cycles, and were largely countermanded by a readover of your posts. Scorpion. And I once again find myself in the unfortunate position of having taken my vote off of one person and not having another person to put it on. -sigh- I will say, before the end of the cycle, that I don't really like the Toucan lynch. I'm kind of rushing to get this post in before cycle's end, so I don't have a whole ton of time to explain myself, but Toucan has been pretty active and helpful the past few cycles, and a read over of their RP allowed me to see how much they were actually saying via RP; I had sort of dismissed it as "Just RP." before. Dang I'm learning a lot this game. What fun. Anyway, I think Toucan's not the best lynch. 12 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I think for now I will go with Toucan because she seems to be posting a lot without leaning too far in one direction or the other on players and elims love to play the middle ground. I think there'd be plenty of interaction between them and the other players to let us get a lot of info from seeing her alignment. I'm honestly just not crazy about the other lynch candidates and I think Toucan is a better option. I'd really like to have more time to go through their posts again but seeing how it's so close to cycle's end I need to vote now. I disagree. I feel like she's been pretty obvious in questioning and analyzing certain players. So, Weasel. I feel like they're more suspicious than Toucan, even if that's not a lot. I also feel like we'll be losing less by lynching them. Sorry Weasel. Edited January 27, 2018 by Sage Kangaroo Format, clarity. I realized I had much more time to finish this than I thought.
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