Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Mauve Crocodile]

So I started working on a longer post, but got sidetracked trying to figure out who everyone is. Which is really fun, but not really useful for the village. Sorry.

I will try to post some actually useful stuff by the end of the night, if not I will post as soon as the morning starts, and I realize that it is up. Sorry for not being useful here.

Croc's advice: Don't figure out players when you are trying to post.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

Man I wish PMs were open right now. 

Anyway, just spent over a hour getting caught up on what happened during this past day cycle and tonight. Here are a few random disjointed thoughts: 

1) Tuatara: I read completely through the rest of the day thread before opening this one, and I was expecting to find Tuatara had been an Eliminator (or saved by vote manipulations). At least, if I had been able to check the thread before the day ended I probably would have switched my vote to Tuatara to help solidify that vote. Their behavior came off as a desparate Eliminator to me and the movement against Beagle and Flamingo (why is everyone calling Flamingo “Onyx” when we refer to everyone else by their animal name, anyway?) felt off to me, or rather, it seemed that there were a couple of people who were a little too eager to jump onto an alternative lunch candidate. 

Anyway, it sucks that Tuatara was Village but I don’t regret that the vote went that way. I think by that point Tuatara needed to be lynched. 

2) Vote manipulations: one plus side of the hotly contested lynch was how many vote manipulators it drew out.  Now we have a fair good idea of how many vote manipulators we’re dealing with. 

2) @Oxblood Beagle and @Quartz Zebra: these two were the primary motivators behind the two sides of the lynch debate, and honestly, both of them feel pretty Village to me. Pushing either side of the lynch as hard as they both did doesn’t feel like an Eliminator move to me, and their reasons both felt passionate but genuine. 

3) The PM group: however, past experience had shown many, many times, that even though a prominent player may be a skilled villager and may have the best of intentions, they’re going to make mistakes in who they trust. So, @Oxblood Beagle, even though I believe you are villager, I’d put money on one of the people in your trusted PM Group being an Eliminator. I invite you to re-examine each of the players in the trust group using the assumption that one of them is an Eliminator and try to figure out which one it is. 

4) Eliminator behavior: this is partially a reaction to @Taupe Gecko‘s post up above, but also just some good general info that is worth saying, but in my experience you can’t lump Eliminators into one group and say “this is how I think they’ll act.” Usually what happens is each Eliminator takes a slightly different tactic and runs with it. They’ll coordinate with each other in the doc, but they are paranoid about being associated with each other so they adopt different view points and different levels of activity. In any given vote (including yesterday’s vote), regardless of whether the candidates are Villagers or Eliminators, you’ll usually find one or two Eliminators voting for each side of the debate, as well as a few who don’t vote at all or vote for someone outside of the main running. This way they cover all their bases. No matter how the vote goes (even if one of their own is lynched), a couple of them might come under suspicion, but others will be vindicated and others will slip into the background and avoid attention altogether. The end result is that they might end up losing a member or two, but majority of the team will be safe. 

So, what that means for us is that it’s not wise to assume that the Eliminators acted this way or that. Odds are they acted both. Instead, I believe it’s better to look at individual players and try to judge if they were an eliminator acting a certain way. 

As such, I have a few suspicions of specific players based on all my observations above as well as a couple gut reads, but I’ll share those after the rollover. 

5) 

2 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Third, I've been waiting for someone to point out the paradox of me encouraging activity and other opinions, and then rejecting said opinions. I had noticed it, but I wasn't about to point it out. Anyway, the way i explain it is thus: I was planning to encourage activity, elim or village, before the game started. That does not effect my in game thoughts, and I'm still most trusting of my own conclusions. I don't like to rely on others analysis, and I'm generally suspicious of others opinions. Yes, I've been wrong multiple times now, but I would rather I be wrong, when I know I'm village, than have the village get led on and never kill those who I suspect. 

I've considered I'm being too much of a mayor, but... idk. Again, you guys choose what to do with me. I've already given my list of reads, my major suspicions, so I dont have more to say besides- BE ACTIVE. 

Okay herowannabe Beagle, if you say so.  j/k I have no idea who you are or anyone else and I don’t really have any desire to figure it out, but that sounds like something Hero would say. Still, I’m not going to fault anyone for trying to encourage activity. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

I have been looking at this thread over and over again and I just don't know what to say right now. I was really hopeful Tuatara was eliminator.  It would have really made life a lot easier. 

I guess I will also confirm what several people have suspected and latest toucan pointed out that I am a new player... I was trying to not make a big deal out of it because I just want to learn from experience and dont want to be taken pity of for fear i wont come back to play if i have a "bad experience". That being said I am confused by terms like GMM, IKYK, and I assume Zebra's rioters and soothers are refering to willshapers and bondsmiths based on context.

Which does mean that if Ivory is truly a first time player, that two of the people that trust beagle the most are new players. This kind of makes me worry about what heron has been saying with PM safety, but at the same time there are so many people that we have so few posts to analyze their behavior on and that I have no clue on that I just don't know.

Speaking of I update my posts counts with the old post count the new post count a link to each account and the new statistics of the posts. I will let you form your own opinions on these numbers and such

Spoiler

Player List:	old post count	post count	Role	links
1. Amethyst Scorpion	7	14		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26349-amethyst-scorpion/
2. Azure Mouse	3	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26365-azure-mouse/
3. Amber Vulture	5	13		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26352-amber-vulture/
4. Charcoal Hyena	3	3	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26369-charcoal-hyena/
5. Chartreuse Penguin	2	7		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26367-chartreuse-penguin/
6. Coral Swan	19	19	Lightweaver	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26370-coral-swan/
7. Cream Tuatara	6	15	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26350-cream-tuatara/
8. Emerald Falcon	3	4		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26351-emerald-falcon/
9. Fuschia Ostrich	4	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26353-fuchsia-ostrich/
10. Indigo Weasel	2	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26374-indigo-weasel/
11. Ivory Dragonfly	26	42		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26375-ivory-dragonfly/
12. Magenta Albatross	7	14		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26372-magenta-albatross/
13. Mauve Crocodile	6	12		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26373-mauve-crocodile/
14. Melon Dingo	6	6	Edgedancer	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26355-melon-dingo/
15. Mint Heron	2	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26357-mint-heron/
16. Onyx Flamingo	15	32		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26359-onyx-flamingo/
17. Opal Lion	2	8	Villager	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26371-opal-lion/
18. Oxblood Beagle	41	74		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26366-oxblood-beagle/
19. Pearl Chameleon	5	9		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26376-pearl-chameleon/
20. Plum Rhinoceros	0	6		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26377-plum-rhinoceros/
21. Quartz Zebra	1	16		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26358-quartz-zebra/
22. Saffron Iguana	5	5	Lightweaver	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26360-saffron-iguana/
23. Sage Kangaroo	5	11		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26361-sage-kangaroo/
24. Salmon Meerkat	10	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26362-salmon-meerkat/
25. Sapphire Elephant	6	12		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26363-sapphire-elephant/
26. Scarlet Octopus	6	6	Edgedancer	http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26378-scarlet-octopus/
27. Sunburst Toucan	8	20		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26356-sunburst-toucan/
28. Taupe Gecko	13	18		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26379-taupe-gecko/
29. Turquoise Gorilla	2	10		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26368-turquoise-gorilla/
30. Violet Axolotl	9	19		http://www.17thshard.com/forum/profile/26354-violet-axolotl/

Spoiler

Average		Min	Max	Mode	Median	# of mode instances
14.83333333		3	74	10	10.5	6

A sfar as roles that should be out there still if we have at least one of each role  listed at the beginning

Dustbringer

skybreaker

windrunner

bondsmith

willshaper

elsecaller

worldhopper

and maybe lightweaver if they aren't all dead.

As there has been a call out to a dustbringer to kill me I guess I can only ask them not to as I don't see how it could condemn or exonerate beagle because as Vanna said

Quote

"So, to summarize, I don't think Flamingo and beagle are both murderers because of the way flamingo attacked beagle, but then joined his group afterwards. Distancing yourself from your co-conspirators is a good idea, publicly joining them after you attracted attention to that isn't. Of the two, Beagle has been acting the most suspicious int he last couple of hours, but it doesn't really make sense that he's taken several of those actions in defense of flamingo if flamingo isn't one of his co-conspirators."

So I don't think killing me would help solve that mystery.

As for my current suspicions I really don't know. I don't really suspect amber vulture anymore than I do anyone else at this point probably trust them a bit more. Maybe I would suspect Rhino a bit because he avoided the day 3 discussion completely, but so did falcon and several others.

Anyways I don't have anything more constructive to add at this point.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

10 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

You say that you'll explain your analysis in the morning, and 2) imply that you're going to have a pinchhitter take over in the morning, which is kind of contradictory. (Assuming I parsed that last sentence correctly, of course.)

Sorry for the confusion. I am a pinchhitter and I was just making a joke. (Apparently not a very good one:P) 

As far as what you asked about the PM group, I don't think it was a good idea for them to discuss the lynch turn around in private if they weren't going to give good reasons for their votes in thread. I think most of them had good intentions, but I can see at least one being an elim and just going with it. Namely, ostrich or albatross so I'll try to look into them.

(Also yes, if everyone could stick to calling people by their animal names then it would definitely help with clarity.)

Quote

Maybe I would suspect Rhino a bit because he avoided the day 3 discussion completely, but so did falcon and several others.

I don't see anything that made me? heh:P suspicious other than being inactive which, as you may have noticed, is why I'm now here.

I'll get up my analysis during the day cycle because it's going to take me longer to get it ready than I have time left in this cycle. One thing I wanted to add though is that I don't agree that there is a small elim team just because one hasn't been caught yet. That happens all the time and the game started with 30 players. 

Also, while it can be fun and sometimes helpful to try and guess at what roles the elims have, it's not necessarily as important as discussing individual players. I think it would be the most helpful if everyone could get up a list of who they suspect and who they don't. Those help me find who isn't likely to be on the same elim team and if someone dies then it gives me something more concrete to look at what they said about the other players. 

I think in general, activity has been really good in this game and keep up the good work at getting people involved everyone. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Plum Rhinoceros
Spelling error

[Oxblood Beagle]

@Chartreuse Penguin well that's quite the post. And no, I'm not hero, but i find it hilarious you think I might be. I would have thought some people would have figured me out by now, but *shrugs*. 

If there was an elim in the PM, i would suspect Albatross. But... they haven't given me any actual reasons to think they're elim. They were the only one in the group who did not share their role, but there may have been other reasons for that, Idk. 

Your points are extremely intelligent. This is exactly what I'm trying to encourage. 

And, i just got ninjad, and I don't want to lose this post. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

44 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Sorry for the confusion. I am a pinchhitter and I was just making a joke. (Apparently not a very good one:P) 

Gotcha ok that makes sense I was only suspicious because I felt like plum rhino the account was trying to avoid all attention by posting as little as possible but now that makes sense that they were inactive. At least assuming the pinch hitter part is true

43 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

@Chartreuse Penguin well that's quite the post. And no, I'm not hero, but i find it hilarious you think I might be. I would have thought some people would have figured me out by now, but *shrugs*. 

At first i completely misread this because I didn't know hero was a person  I guess I don't know who a lot of people are but I do have a guess for beagle and maybe mint heron and that's about it. It will be fun seeing who I have been talking to

Edited January 22, 2018 by Onyx Flamingo

[Pearl Chameleon]

I don't have enough time to review the last lynch and all of today's posts right now, but I want to say that I think we need to stop harping on the PM group. The Swan lynch wasn't implemented in the best way, but I don't think the arrangement was suspicious (whether individual players who took part in it are suspicious is another matter). I have to agree with Beagle that at this point it's like the same points are being repeated over and over again. I'm wondering if part of this might be an elim attempt to keep us distracted. But regardless of whether there are nefarious intentions behind it, I do think that it's distracting.

I don't think that we should take everyone in the PM to be a villager, as Dragonfly and Beagle have been suggesting. I'm not comfortable with reading a player as a villager unless it has to do with evidence that I can see. And if anyone is defending a player due to a village read, I would like them to refer back to public evidence. But the PM group in and of itself isn't suspicious.

[Sapphire Elephant]

*sigh*

Sorry I missed most of the day cycle and tonight. I'm at a loss for where to look now. Hopefully things look clearer in the morning.

[Amber Vulture]

Posting again after a rather busy day. I've been able to occasionally read the thread throughout the day, so I'm caught up with what's happening, but I didn't have much of an opportunity to post. I'm pressed for time thanks to RL stuff right now, so I'm going to limit my comments below. If anyone wants me to elaborate on something, please ask.

• I'm annoyed and honestly rather surprised that Tuatara was innocent. I've never been the best at getting reads, but I really thought we might have had an elim there
• I still trust Beagle and Ivory, despite the fact that they've been involved in lynching a number of villagers. It's normal to stumble around in the dark for the first few cycles, and while I'd hoped we'd find an eliminator yesterday, it's not out of the norm that we didn't
• Beagle, I honestly thought you might have been Hero as well. When you first PMed me, I actually drafted a message saying "I see the contribution crusade is back in action", but decided against it
• Rhino, I agree that activity has been pretty good this game. That was one of my fears coming into an anonymous game, but the combination of pinch hitters and contribution encouragement by a number of people here has made the game work really well.
• Onyx, while I'm not sure what "GMM" is (I know I've heard it before, but I've forgotten), I can tell you that "IKYK" stands for "I know you know", and means a situation where a bluff or double bluff (or triple bluff or so on) means there's no actionable information to be gained from further analysis. It's like the Princess Bride scene where Vizzini makes contradictory conclusions based on the same information. Another term you may hear is "WGG", in which eliminators stage an attack on one of their members who is protected/has an extra life. That bluffs the village into thinking that player is an eliminator target and that they, therefore, must be good. This one stands for "Wounded Gazelle Gambit" 
• I'm hesitant to accept all players in the PM as village. While I don't think Beagle or Ivory would intentionally mislead us, confirmed good does not mean confirmed right, and just because I consider them likely village doesn't mean I consider all of their village reads the same way. I'll have to take a closer look at some of the members this upcoming day cycle.

Sorry if this was rather rambling. I'm trying to make sure I get what information I need down, but I've written it largely off the top of my head. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Another term you may hear is "WGG", in which eliminators stage an attack on one of their members who is protected/has an extra life. That bluffs the village into thinking that player is an eliminator target and that they, therefore, must be good. This one stands for "Wounded Gazelle Gambit" 

oh oops thats what I meant looking back at one of Ivories comments was WGG not GMM my bad. And thanks for the explanation.  

[Indigo Weasel]

20 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I'm tempted to want to have the Dustbringer kill me, but at the same time, i don't really trust the judgement of other villagers (even though my judgement has not exactly been much better so far, in regards to finding eliminators). 

So, Dustbringer, please kill wisely. 

Yes, Dustbringer kill this nasty elim!

Also I absolutely don't understand why someone can be suspicious of this nice, honorable weasel.

[Sage Kangaroo]

I feel like I should say that I'm pretty trusting of Zebra.  The main people I trust are Ivory, Zebra, and... Yeah that's about it.  Oddly, those two people now trust Beagle a little more than I'm happy with.

This is, of course, not to say that I'm distrusting of everyone else, it's just that I tend not to trust people very much.  Also, I'm rather disappointed I missed the end of last cycle.  I would definitely have put my vote back on Beagle, for a number of reasons.  

Also, I'd like to say that it seems unlikely that everyone in the PM were village.  I don't know that I can say for certain, statistically, that there was probably an Elim among them, but I would say that historically, most such groups tend to get a player wrong.

I'm a little bit suspicious of everyone lurking on the fringes.  Toucan is slight village lean for me, although like I've said previously, RP in large quantities is bad for my brain.   I'd also agree that we've probably got either a pretty small Elim team, or the Elim team has a lot of lurkers.  I'm not totally convinced Onyx is evil, but I would like to see them die for info as well.  As for Beagle... That bad read I've had all game persists, and although I'm a little bit worried about myself tunneling, I don't feel like that's quite right.  Although, of course, one never does feel like they're tunneling while they're doing it.   It might just be that I like to stick with my gut, and changing my mind hurts my pride a little bit.  Especially when I've been this adamant about something.  But I guess to be a successful villager you have to let go of bad reads.

I'll see how I feel about Beagle after tonight, assuming I'm not dead.

I'd suggest trying to get the lurkers to be more active in whatever way possible.  So, I guess I sort of have to agree with Beagle here, as much as it pains me to say it.  But he's right:

BE ACTIVE.

And that, my friends, is exactly how emphatic you can make text on the Shard.  Huh.

[Magenta Albatross]

Making my first night post. I've been rather busy but instead of posting read/analysis, I wanted to talk while we're still on topic.

 

Day 2 Vote Count
Coral Swan (5): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Opal Lion, Magenta Albatross, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel
Onyx Flamingo (2): Coral Swan, Plum Rhinoceros
Indigo Weasel (1): Amethyst Scorpion
Mint Heron (1): Ivory Dragonfly
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Taupe Gecko (1): Sage Kangaroo

 

Day 3 Vote Count
Cream Tuatara (7): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mauve Crocodile, Sapphire Elephant
Oxblood Beagle (4): Mint Heron, Turquoise Gorilla, Azure Mouse, Indigo Weasel
Onyx Flamingo (3): Sage Kangaroo, Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko
Amber Vulture (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Magenta Albatross

 

This was actually my first time in a PM group like this in a game. When I was approached, I offered a few opinions, which I have also stated in thread but maybe a bit more in depth. I wasn't aware of a group forming at all until it was made and honestly I didn't mind. I had a village read on onyx and beagle and was willing to trust Elephant and Ivory (I was leaning village here anyway)

I don't want this to be an attack on anyone but I feel I should express this point. As I was catching up on the thread, the Pm is being made out to be a big conspiracy and maybe it is. It only took 5 votes to lynch Swan after all. Out of a game of 27 players, 5 votes lynched a player.  I think the main reason this happened was because players weren't active in the first place. If anyone looks back through day 2, there were others online and posting at the time when the swan lynch was taking place. Granted, the Pm wasn't talked about then. Regardless, no one was willing to make a stance or commit to a wagon. We can argue it was rather early. Apart from the votes on Swan, we had 4 vanity wagons. Everyone even had their individual reasons for voting swan as well. And some players even unvoted others and just watched the whole thing unfold. And then we find out about the Pm and more and more people are pressing the matter and honestly I think due to this a few players are escaping attention (btw I've seen your posts, Zebra and Chameleon). When everyone voted swan at the end, I found that villagery as I doubt the elims bring that much attention to themselves at that point in the game. I mean, looking at how many people had votes, If there wasn't an elim wagon up for lynch, the elims can sit out, do nothing and a villager still gets lynched. The one that was most suspicious was axolotl but due to their post, we decided to remove our votes but just completely removing our votes at that point during a day is rather meaningless, as we build up to a point where we have a lynch that we think could give us an elim.

End of day 3 votes has a lot more players out to play. I feel this kind of situation occurs when there's a possible elim lynch. The elims will be making a move to save their teammate and more viable wagon options actually appear. If I was around at rollover, I would be definitely thinking at that point that tuatara is an elim considering how beagle and onyx ended up getting votes as well and they're my village reads. But the outcome makes sense with votes as they would rather pile on one wagon so save a teammate rather than on two separate wagons. Whether more players being active was due to the 'PM gate incident' or because everyone has more time, is something I don't want to go into. 

What I'm trying to say is that day 2, a few players were trying and we ended up messing up and lynching a villager. Ivory has given a full account of what happened. And it'snot like it was pages and pages of planning to try to get swan lynched. It was literally:

'Oh damnation, what!?? Axolotl!?? are they serious?? we can't vote here today!! Who's the next most suspicious person in the thread?'

and no one else at the time had any consensus suspicions or wagons that they were willing to vote for. (Of course, I understand people being busy, as I have been busy myself with exams). But I just find it a bit weird because there were only 5 votes and not everyone in the PM group even voted. No counter wagon being up makes sense as it was really close to end of day and it was a villager so elims wouldn't make any last ditch effort either.

Overall, I'm not denying there isn't a chance for an elim to be in the PM group and it is very healthy for the village to keep an eye here. At the same time, I suggest we also look at more players overall as having this as the only topic might not end well for us. Sorry for going on but it's been a while since I posted and I apologize if I offended anyone. I just feel I had to express this as it's not something I've encountered before and maybe the case for many others as well. 

Player analysis to come during day time, hopefully. 

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

AG4/AN1 - Day 4: Scheduled Death

Hello again, it’s me. The random voice from the sky? Yes, that one. Anyway, got an awful amount of things to report to you. Isn’t that such a pain? I’ve asked too many questions in the past two sentences. And now I’ve said two and too a lot and you know when you say a word a fair bit and it just starts to sound a bit funny and maybe a bit too funny oh we’ve done it again.

Okay, back to the deaths. I’m starting to sound a bit like an over-enthusiastic gran, you know what I mean? Always ready to report about Janice over in the next 2 villages slipping on some butter she left out the fridge or something.

First on the report concerns the death of a certain Taupe Gecko, who was caught doing very innocent things in very innocent places. There have been questions about if the innocent things were in fact innocent, but no-one has tried to claim that painting pretty pictures is the very definition of evil. But what about the place? Well that was at Narg’s broken down shed, so no-one can really complain about that either. Anyway, I won’t go into much detail as there’s a fair bit more to cover. 

Secondly, we have reports about reports about reports that Oxblood Beagle has been reportedly found somewhat not alive. Due to the nature of way too many reports, I actually can’t tell you anything. It’s a real shame too, cause they’ve been talking so much that I kinda feel like I’m letting them down. But at the same time I kinda don’t wanna talk to maybe try and be a bit ironic about the situation. It’s a real problem, one that doesn’t really come up much in my line of work, that work being to ramble in an empty document and hope that a few people like it enough to send me some yellow stuff on a website. But yeah, do I talk or not? Well even if I don’t, I should at least tell you that all of our many reports do say that there was an awful lot of flames and stuff around Beagle, and I don’t think they were that much of a pyromaniac.

Finally, and yes getting to a third report is truly an honour to remember, Turquoise Gorilla is dead. And sorry to whoever this person is, because I am also getting a bit tired of rambling, so we’ll skip straight to the juicy bits. They were also seemingly a pyromaniac, seeing as there were also a fair few signs of flames around the body. 

Otherwise, guess there isn’t much to say. Watch out for that Narg fellow, you know?

---

Jai lay in the alleyway, thoughtful, as he looked up at the stars and the moon, Nomon. He wondered what lay among those stars. Were there other people? Other creatures? Who knew what could be hiding in that night sky.

He heard a noise from the mouth of the alleyway, and went rigid. They were walking towards him. 

Jai panicked. Was it the Boys? He took a glance, and saw a knife. Jai threw off the blanket, and ran for the other side of the alley. But there was another person waiting for him there too.

In a complete panic, he saw a spren, like a glowing ball, drift down. He gasped, and his spheres- still in his pants- went dun. His skin became alight. And then, POP.

A flash of light, and Jai was in a different alley, by the bakery. He gaped. What had he just done? Had that been... a surge?! Jai whooped in relief of having gotten away, and walked out of the alleyway, right into another knife.

Sadly, Jai had used all his infused spheres in transporting, and his body was left in front of the alley.

All credit goes to Oxblood Beagle for his death scene.

---

Taupe Gecko has died! They were a Villager.
Oxblood Beagle has died! They were a Village Willshaper.
Turquoise Gorilla has died! They were a Village Dustbringer.

Day Four has begun. It will end in 48 hours time, at 10pm GMT on the 24th January. 

Player List
1. Amethyst Scorpion
2. Azure Mouse
3. Amber Vulture
4. Charcoal Hyena - Cannoc - Villager
5. Chartreuse Penguin
6. Coral Swan - Elyle - Village Lightweaver
7. Cream Tuatara - Villager
8. Emerald Falcon - Aldrick
9. Fuschia Ostrich
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly - Nolan
12. Magenta Albatross
13. Mauve Crocodile
14. Melon Dingo - Quentisan - Village Edgedancer
15. Mint Heron
16. Onyx Flamingo - Squawk
17. Opal Lion - Villager
18. Oxblood Beagle - Jai - [color=green]Village Willshaper[/color]
19. Pearl Chameleon
20. Plum Rhinoceros
21. Quartz Zebra
22. Saffron Iguana - Emalia - Village Lightweaver
23. Sage Kangaroo
24. Salmon Meerkat
25. Sapphire Elephant
26. Scarlet Octopus - Village Edgedancer 
27. Sunburst Toucan - Vanna
28. Taupe Gecko - [color=green]Villager[/color]
29. Turquoise Gorilla - Village Dustbringer
30. Violet Axolotl

[Magenta Albatross]

Okay this was rather unexpected. The dustbringer was village after all and killed beagle, I'm guessing.

Although, this clears up whether the dustbringer was elim or not, it also means we've lost our kill as well. 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Magenta Albatross

[Onyx Flamingo]

Ok just to recap Gecko was murdered and beagle was burned... but who killed gorilla?

[Magenta Albatross]

I rather doubt that there's a second dustbringer in the game. And if they are, why hold off til now.

[Sapphire Elephant]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Ok just to recap Gecko was murdered and beagle was burned... but who killed gorilla?

Writeup makes it look like a Dustbringer kill to me. @Orlok Tsubodai can you confirm?

My first guess is a Worldhopper that drew Dustbringer this cycle. The other option is a Dustbringer who has waited until this cycle to use their power, but I find that unlikely.

No idea yet on whether the worldhopper was Elim or Village though.

[Onyx Flamingo]

Just now, Sapphire Elephant said:

My first guess is a Worldhopper that drew Dustbringer this cycle.

Oh! Ok that would make sense I didn't think of that. Well that was horrible luck in that case.

[Magenta Albatross]

Beagle being confirmed villager almost takes a weight off my back, in case I was wrong about them all this time. We've still lost a valuable villager, though. 

I'm going to try to analyse Gorilla's posts today and see if there's a reason they were targeted. Maybe they had accurate reads or as some people have said, if the elims have a scanner, then they possibly learnt Gorilla was the dustbringer. 

[Sage Kangaroo]

Ok.

Fine.

I was wrong.

There.  I said it.  Now for some thoughts.

This makes me a little more suspicious of Flamingo.  As several other players have said previously, it seemed unlikely that both Flamingo and Beagle were Elims;  I hadn't really considered this point until now, as it really didn't make much difference until one of them died, and personally, I though Beagle was more suspicious.  Clearly, I was in error there.  However, since Beagle was a villager, it makes a whole lot of sense that Flamingo started off by attacking them, then suddenly switched sides.

I think, anyway.  I'm definitely going to have to go read over the thread again, with Beagle's innocence in mind.  I'll admit that my view of him as evil has likely colored most of my other suspicions, and I'll have to form some new ones.

I would suggest that everyone do the same, as Beagle being village really does give us a whole lot of things to think about.

I'll hopefully post again tomorrow, with some in-depth analysis of players.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Sapphire Elephant, yes, that was a Dustbringer kill. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

At this point I'm almost positive they do have a scanner, I mean they targeted a Lightweaver then an Edgedancer and tonight they did a villager but also got a Dustbringer if we assume the Worldhopper is an elim.

10 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Beagle being confirmed villager almost takes a weight off my back, in case I was wrong about them all this time. We've still lost a valuable villager, though.

Agree with this though it makes me feel like scum that I had a doubt about them. Though I was ready to lose because of trusting him because if he was an elim he would have earned a victory for sure.

8 minutes ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

This makes me a little more suspicious of Flamingo.  As several other players have said previously, it seemed unlikely that both Flamingo and Beagle were Elims;  I hadn't really considered this point until now, as it really didn't make much difference until one of them died, and personally, I though Beagle was more suspicious.  Clearly, I was in error there.  However, since Beagle was a villager, it makes a whole lot of sense that Flamingo started off by attacking them, then suddenly switched sides.

I think, anyway.  I'm definitely going to have to go read over the thread again, with Beagle's innocence in mind.  I'll admit that my view of him as evil has likely colored most of my other suspicions, and I'll have to form some new ones.

I hope you do read over everything I wrote again. I will admit that I was wrong on day 2 accusing Ivory and beagle of lynching dingo willy nilly. I have learned that a day 1 lynch probably is the best thing for discussion especially if everyone participates which I hope everyone does today. 

Lots of the arguments yesterday was to lynch me so that they could figure out if beagle was innocent or not. I literally can't think of anything you could learn from my lynch today. You could learn that Dragonfly (nolan) is innocent I suppose but I think everyone already knows that.

[Violet Axolotl]

Day 1 Votes: [Blue = Dead Village]
Melon Dingo (6): Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon, Emerald Falcon, Mauve Crocodile
Amethyst Scorpion (3): Cream Tuatara, Charcoal Hyena, Magenta Albatross
Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Saffron Iguana
Azure Mouse (1): Melon Dingo
Coral Swan (1): Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko
Indigo Weasel (1): Fuchsia Ostrich
Salmon Meerkat (1): Sunburst Toucan
Violet Axolotl (1): Coral Swan

Day 2 Votes:
Coral Swan (5): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Opal Lion, Magenta Albatross, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel
Onyx Flamingo (2): Coral Swan, Plum Rhinoceros
Indigo Weasel (1): Amethyst Scorpion
Mint Heron (1): Ivory Dragonfly
Pearl Chameleon (1): Violet Axolotl
Taupe Gecko (1): Sage Kangaroo

Day 3 Votes:
Cream Tuatara (7): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Sunburst Toucan, Mauve Crocodile, Sapphire Elephant
Oxblood Beagle (4): Mint Heron, Turquoise Gorilla, Azure Mouse, Indigo Weasel
Onyx Flamingo (3): Sage Kangaroo, Quartz Zebra, Taupe Gecko
Amber Vulture (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Magenta Albatross

Dragonfly, Albatross and Scorpion are the only, living, players to have voted in each lynch so far.  I have no idea if it means anything but it's something that I feel should be pointed out.  I was hoping to find one person that joined in every successful lynch but alas.

If someone can see a pattern of something, please speak up as I got nothing.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Well, as I said, I think Beagle was doing more alive than his death would have given us. However, hopefully this clears any suspicions about the intentions of the PM group. 

Sorry for not being active, school and track are just a daily weekday thing that happens.

Everything about the Gorilla kill was strange. It’s either an Elim Dustbringer, or a World hopper that got Dustbringer powers. As others have said, I find the second more likely, but we shouldn’t discount the first. I think people have mentioned that unusual role distributions are a thing in AGs, and I’m thinking that the Elims got 2 Skybreakers and a Dustbringer/ Worldhopper to help kill people. To balance it, they also got a really small team. Which is maybe why after 10 kills, 6 of which are likely village kills, we haven’t found one Elim among them. Also, we got more vote manip to help us control the lynch, though with Beagle dead that capacity is diminished. 

So we need to find an Elim, today. Or we’re going to lose this game. I would like to call both @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Salmon Meerkat out of the shadows to explain their thoughts on recent developments, as neither has posted in a while (I think), and because I have mild elim suspicions on both of them from gut read on Meerkat (I think like 3 players have a bad gut read on him at this point?) and from Ostrich’s inactivity and lack of meaningful content in the posts she does make. Though, we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for that, and got no Elims. Third time’s the charm?