Long Game 40: Ashen Rebellion

[Megasif he/him]

Ok so I'm reading Roadwalker as village. Not been following previous cycles too closely so dont know what to make of Darkness.

I have my suspicions on Arinian. It could be a false trail but the one I'd go with for now. Budgie stands out a little but not too suspicious yet.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Like I already said, Darkness' confusion about which kill was which really seemed genuine to me. If you go back and look at the posts, I don't know, they just don't seem feigned to me at all. The only thing that made me think otherwise was the bit about Alvron, but I think his explanation clears that up fairly well.

Megasif's post...well, it doesn't really change my mind I guess? Road is a pretty easy village read(my opinion ), and it's not like it would take much to read the bits about Darkness in mine, Asterion, and Doc's posts. Feels a little like skirting around the subject to say he doesn't have a read because he's not following closely enough. Also doesn't go into his suspicion of Arinian to tell us why he wants to lynch him. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for the post and vote, I just feel like it wouldn't have been too hard to do a little more. Maybe he's trying to slip under the radar with short posts, or maybe he's just busy. I don't know, which is why I say it doesn't change my opinion of him. Although, tbh, I feel like he'd have put a little more effort into the post if he was an eliminator. Maybe... >>

[DeTess she/her]

This will be an RP-light cycle for me as I make my way through the player-list and try to establish some concrete suspicions. This will be the first part, the second part will come either later today or in the night cycle.
let's start with Megasif.

Spoiler

 

He started out with a couple of posts of RP in C1. just like about 50% of the othe rplayers, so nothing alignment inidcative about that. His first non-RP action was to vote on Sami in C2. In that same post he also compliments Rae and apologizes for inactiveness. There might be something to read in that compliment, but then again there might not, as it was well deserved.

His vote on Sami seems rather odd though. He later switches off of her and joins the vote on Asterion, after BR revealed that Sami was part of the Remnants of her house. He later explains that his votes where random up until then, which makes em wonder why he was voting at all. He starts to properly talk about his suspicions towards the end of D2, explaining his suspicion of Arinian and several others. This post seems well reasoned, but until we know more about the alignments of those he mentioned, it's also rather NAI. It should also be noted that these where the kind of posts that he made during MR25, where he was an elim

Overall, I'd been leaning slightly elim on Megasif.

 

Next up is Roadwalker:

Spoiler

Roadwalker's first posts where rather NAI for me, as they mostly contained RP. His poke-vote to get young bard more active could be indicative of him being an elim, as the elims wouldn't mind using such a thing to guide the vote when they can His own explanation for why he did there could also easily be true, though.

Things start to get more interesting in D2. His first thing of note would be the vote for self-preservation, but that's less suspicious in a faction-game, I suppose. What followed was the thing with Alvron's PM to him. If Alvron's alignment hadn't been revealed as village, I'd be leaning village on Roadwalker for his quick reveal of that. As it is, it's NAI, as an elim would also have been quite willing to jump on a mistake to lynch a villager. If Roadwalker knew at that point that Alvron was an atium-misting I'd read his actions as elim-like, as a villager would probably have been more careful about risking his house's only kill, while an elim would only be too happy to get the threat out of the way.

Overall, I've got a Neutral/elim read on him, depending on whether he knew Alvron's role in D2 (so if someone could enlighten us about this, I'd appreciate it).

Lemonelon made only one RP post, and that's it. @Lemonelon, if you can, could you join us again?

Okay, next up is BR:

Spoiler

D1 for BR was pretty NAI, though if Road flips elim, her early vote on him might indicate she's village. BR's actions D2 make me lean village on her. Her sharing the information about what happened to her house seems genuine to me, and its information an elim might not have wanted to share, as it would increase the risk of getting killed by a rival house just to get rid of the competition in its entirety. I doubt that it's some kind of elim-trick on her part, as it would probably blow up in her face sooner rather than later if it was, given the amount of kills going around.

That having been said, I'm not yet completely convinced that BR's house is now free of elims. If the coinshot appears to be an elim than I'd agree with her, but I think that's still up int eh air right now. We've been going by the assumption that there is only 1 elim in each house, but I don't think we've got any guarantee of that. For alll we know, there might be multiple elims in one house, and none in another.

So, overall read of BR is village right now.

Darkness:

Spoiler

Most of Darkness' posts read as Neutral or slightly village to me. I'll deal with the one exception below.

On 11/27/2017 at 0:38 PM, Darkness_ said:

Anyhoo, so we're not really getting anywhere and well, our primary objective is to crush the Skaa right? And since the Skaa most probably have one person in each House we assume, I think that to maximise cooperation and get the Skaa, who are the primary objectives, perhaps we should consider this as a normal Elim vs Village game, just with a bit more apprehension and lines drawn. As the Skaa are available to information on all 4 of the Houses (we assume), it would be a good step for each House to come forward with their members, and information which is considered important should be said in thread, except for BR's House, as we assume there was only one Skaa in their house (and we know who is in it now anyway).

The big risk of making the member-lists of all 4 houses publicly known is that it would also facilitate a house war. If you are a villager with a kill-role you'd probably mostly use it on suspicions. However, if you also know the member-list of the house that is currently in the lead, than it would be tempting to reduce their favor-income. After all, if you wipe out the Skaa, but are not in the lead, you lose. By keeping the house-lists unknown, the focus actually remains more on the Skaa than it otherwise might be. Sharing house-member lists also only works if the assumption of an even distribution of Skaa is correct, and I'm not yet sure if we can assume that.

Now, Darkness could be a very sneaky Skaa, and he made the above suggestion fully knowing that that would more easily facilitate a house war. He might be aware of the Skaa distribution, and might know that they are not evenly distributed, so he was emphasizing the opposing view to get us to focus on a wrong assumption. The above could also just be a villager trying to get useful info without realizing the possible consequences.

Overall, my read on him is Neutral, but I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, because if he is a Skaa we could learn something from his posts (namely that the Skaa aren't evenly distributed and might even lack Skaa in 2 houses, meaning that they would really like to know who is in what house).

First of all, Straw's last post was about 4 days ago. @Ookla the Insane, if you could join us again, I'd very much appreciate it.

Straw's first post in the game was to enter the tie-tango at the end of D1. That's not how I'd have chosen to start the game of, to be honest. If his first vote hadn't been against Drake I'd have seriously wondered if he was an elim joining in to try and save Drake. As it is, I'm going to put those actions down as NAI.

I'm going to quote his last post in its entirety here. Not because I've got much to say about it apart from the fact that t makes me leans somewhat village on him, but because people seemed to ignore it at the time, and he makes some very good points:

Quote

     Bugsy, actually, the using anonymous names for roles idea originated in my house doc, but I thought it would be a good idea to make sure the idea was well known, as it seems like it could benefit the village. Also, assuming that there is one Skaa player in every house, except for once house, which would have two Skaa in it. Therefore, if the Skaa distribution is like that, there is a 1/4 chance that everyone in Drake's house is soft-cleared. It also appears that houses are not shown upon death. This furthers my earlier point that we should probably have house representatives.

     So, now to talk about the benefits of house representatives. First of all, it would allow the suspicions of house members to be shared with the thread. In my opinion, docs provide a useful tool in catching the Skaa. Players in each house can check the behavior of other members of the house, providing a useful data point that furthers the analysis abilities of the village. Also, house representatives would allow us to know the roles of players in a larger version of the anonymous role sharing in docs. This would allow the village to better coordinate use of various roles to take down the Skaa.

I think it would be a pretty good idea to agree on some house representatives. The ball could easily function as a meeting place for this, provided every house keeps sending members, but it might be useful if there's a player from each house that can speak 'officially' for their house.

So, my read on Straw at the moment is slightly village, mostly because of the suggestions I quoted above.

Next is Sami. She's mostly done RP, and shared a couple of gut-reads. Her gut was wrong about Phattemer, and right about Alv. Gut-reads don't really allow for analysis by others, though, unless yous hare a lot of them. Overall, I've got a Neutral read on her.

I haven't got much on Manukos either. He makes a couple of odd comments, such as initially assuming that all N1 kills where done by the Skaa (which might be indicative of him being village, only we don't yet know if the attack by the coinshot was done by the Skaa or not, so he could also have been a confused Skaa at that point). He voted on Roadwalker claiming that would give the most information, but never explained this claim properly. Overall, I've got a Neutral, or very, very slight elim read on Manukos.

Shaney has only posted some RP, the most recent of which was posted last friday. @ShaneysRus, I'd appreciate it if you could join us again.

That's it for now, as there's some other stuff I need to get to. I'll put my vote on Megasif for now, but I might change that later. If I have time, I'll also PM all of those that are currently inactive, but if someone else has more time than I do you should feel free to do it in my stead. Just mention that you've done so so that I won't be redoing what you've already done.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Roadwalker's first posts where rather NAI for me, as they mostly contained RP. His poke-vote to get young bard more active could be indicative of him being an elim, as the elims wouldn't mind using such a thing to guide the vote when they can His own explanation for why he did there could also easily be true, though.

Things start to get more interesting in D2. His first thing of note would be the vote for self-preservation, but that's less suspicious in a faction-game, I suppose. What followed was the thing with Alvron's PM to him. If Alvron's alignment hadn't been revealed as village, I'd be leaning village on Roadwalker for his quick reveal of that. As it is, it's NAI, as an elim would also have been quite willing to jump on a mistake to lynch a villager. If Roadwalker knew at that point that Alvron was an atium-misting I'd read his actions as elim-like, as a villager would probably have been more careful about risking his house's only kill, while an elim would only be too happy to get the threat out of the way.

Overall, I've got a Neutral/elim read on him, depending on whether he knew Alvron's role in D2 (so if someone could enlighten us about this, I'd appreciate it).

Alv never said anything in our house doc, even though I had claimed and anyone else with a role had posted anonymously that there was that role available. He never said nothin'.

[DeTess she/her]

16 minutes ago, Ookla the Walker of Roads said:

Alv never said anything in our house doc, even though I had claimed and anyone else with a role had posted anonymously that there was that role available. He never said nothin'.

Allright. I doubt you'd lie about it if Alv had shared his role somewhere others could see it as you'd get busted quickly. That means I've got a fairly neutral read of you for now.

[asterion137 he/him]

I think we should try to decide this lynch at least by a margin of 2 votes, to try and prevent the Skaa from tying it with emotional allomancy, so Darkness Megasif

Edited November 28, 2017 by asterion137

[ShaneysRus]

I think that it's okay for us to assume that the skaa have a bronze misting, because it seems that no one knew Alv's role. But even if someone did know Alv's role (possibly told through PM), it's not likely that they'll come forward and admit it, unless they have non-debatable proof that they are village, which I don't think anyone has at this point. 

[Arinian]

19 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Hmmm. Current suspicions - Budgie and one of Arinian/Megasif. Budgie, I just have a bad gut read on her. I'm not sure what it is exactly. Arinian, I was slightly suspicious of how he didn't give an opinion either way with phattemer and Asterion, then he voted on Megasif following my lead(when Megasif had already responded to my poke vote), then switched to Road for information. Megasif, mostly it's the fact that he didn't pick a side between Road and phatt last Cycle, which, if they were both villagers like I think, kind of reads to me like he didn't want to pick a side and then get blamed for it. I say I think either Arinian or Megasif is evil because I don't think they both would be, because of how Arinian put a 2nd vote on Megasif last Cycle and then Megasif cast suspicion on Arinian for it. It didn't seem like a distancing tactic to me either, since Arinian's vote put Megasif in the lead for the lynch.

Well I can explain this all pretty easily. Phatt and Aster both gained many suspicion but I never understood true base for this suspicions, confusing vote switching... well was pretty confusing but I don't see how it made them so suspicious for so many people. So I just avoided voting on them cause never truly suspected them.

And if you want  to know why I changed my vote from Sif on Road is because people in my house decided that Road undoubtebly much more suspicious then Sif and said "Man why you voting for Megasif, he surely not elim! Vote for Road he is dirty Skaa" so I just changed my vote. 

Don't know else what I can say. Darkness little bit suspicious with his "My house killed Alv" when write up obviously states that Alv was killed by Skaa, but knowing DA I think it can be that he just didn't paid much attention to his house doc. Also I don't understand DA's statement about second Atium misting in same house in which was Alv. Cause we haven't seen any reasons for other Atium misting to exist... so maybe he know more then we are. Who knows, who knows... 

Almost forgot Megasif.

[Droughtbringer]

I'll be extending this day by 24 hours, due to things going on, currently. 

Sorry if this causes any inconvience

[Arraenae]

Quote

Overall, my read on him is Neutral, but I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, because if he is a Skaa we could learn something from his posts (namely that the Skaa aren't evenly distributed and might even lack Skaa in 2 houses, meaning that they would really like to know who is in what house).

This line from @randuir's read on DA stuck out to me. If DA is an elim, why would that mean the skaa must be unevenly distributed? That's not a very logical assumption.

9 hours ago, asterion137 said:

I think we should try to decide this lynch at least by a margin of 2 votes, to try and prevent the Skaa from tying it with emotional allomancy, so Darkness Megasif

Sure a lynch margin by at least two votes would be nice, but why do you want to vote for Megasif in particular? What makes Megasif a worthy candidate of death over anyone else?

[Straw he/him]

Hi! I'm not dead! It looks like Phattemer wasn't very popular... 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

19 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Yeah, I thought it was a little strange that you didn't mention my vote or anything.

shhhh xD 

@randuir Yeah I don't suspect Legend of being an elim because of stuff he's done and said in the house doc, and Sami has been mostly inactive so I doubt she is either xD. I don't know they aren't positively because I haven't actually seen their alignments lol...but otherwise I'd say it's fairly safe to assume they are village. Either way I would put them lowest on my list of suspects. 

Okay after reading through this cycle, I was so confused by the stuff surrounding Darkness xD. I was like "wait, but I thought that Darkness' house hit Alv so the elims hit Phatt right?? " and then I saw stuff saying that Alv was the elim kill and I was like "what....is happening" xD. So, I think I see this now. Alv was elim kill. and Darkness' house just had miscommunication. That makes so much more sense now. lol

I should go back through the other cycles and look closer at everything, but I'll just admit that I'm feeling lazy and don't want to right now. Looking through everyone's analysis this cycle tho has given me some good reminders of what's happened in the previous cycles. I think for now I'll vote Asterion because he could've been trying to save Drake day 1. Also, he's not on my radar of likely villagers.

This is a hidden message...congrats on finding it.:P  P.S. Sony is cool.

[Arraenae]

I think Roadwalker is slightly elimmy.

Roadwalker starts with RP and suggests that an Atium misting or a Mistborn could find skaa. It's kind of a weird comment, but mostly NAI. He also asks about hemalurgy. In a later post, he said that his idea was related to an earlier LG.

Roadwalker RPs a lot.

Roadwalker poke votes Bard for being inactive two and a half hours before rollover. This type of vote doesn't seem very useful. Roadwalker acknowledges that he was doing this to follow the trend of pokevoting inactives. Overall, it's a very weak vote, and slightly elimmy.

In the next post, Roadwalker defends himself by saying that one can gain favor for discussing strategy and that he didn't realize they cycle was about to end. He retracts his vote. I suppose it's fair enough justification, since it feels like his questions were forced attempts to be clever with the system and pad out wordcount. (Note: @Ookla the Walker of Roads, you only get favor for strategy posts that are 200 words or over.) Very very slightly village, since it seems like a villager would care more about favor than an elim.

Roadwalker defends himself rather flippantly.

Roadwalker suggests that Phatt could be an elim who hoped to bus Drake. Seems rather paranoid, because elims lose a lot if a teammate dies D1. Later when BR brings that point up, he says that she is "arguing the point of the skaa". Slightly elim, now that we know Phatt was village and it could have been an attempt to sow suspicion. Not as elimmy as it could be because we also know Phatt was hit with 3 kills in the same turn, so other people were suspicious of him too.

Roadwalker says that elims win through clever ploys and bussing is one tactic that they could use. Uh...I disagree (constantly coming up with clever ploys is exhausting, but this ISO isn't the place to talk about that.

Roadwalker votes on Phatt for self preservation and says that he can claim if his housemates let him. I think deferring to his housemates is rather villagery, because this is a faction game.

Then Road says that Alv PMed him and said to go for a House win, not nobles-over-skaa win. He suggested that Alv was a skaa because of this. Personally, I think this shows that Road is kind of inexperienced with faction games and hasn't developed a ruthless side yet, which isn't surprising considering the lack of faction games recently.

Road says that Alv didn't reveal his role. I'm inclined to believe him, especially since Alv doesn't seem like the type to roleclaim early (or at all).

Overall, Road seems NAI leaning elim. Elimmy enough to raise an eyebrow, but not enough to be a strong lynch candidate. With both Phatt and Alv dead, he also loses his value for information, too. Road.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Ookla the Rae
Added a first line

[Megasif he/him]

Low activity due to traveling to London for signing event. It was sooo cool btw. Met other sharders etc. Got books signed, questions answered.

 

Theres been an extension so I'll try to make a defence case tomorrow. Any lawyers offering their services? To represent me here?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm considering switching my vote to Asterion, because of his quick, not very well reasoned votes/vote changes. This lynch on Megasif seems way too easy, and I don't like the voters very much. It doesn't seem like a time to bus a teammate, and I'm fairly suspicious of all 3 of Rand, Ast, and Arinian(I seriously doubt all 3 are elims, but I feel like there's a good chance at least 1 is). I'm pretty confident that Darkness and BR are village though, so, yeah, I'm gonna switch to Asterion. I probably wouldn't if the Cycle was ending right now, but we've still got 24 more hours.

Vote tally:

Megasif(3): randuir, Asterion, Arinian
Asterion(3): Darkness, BR, Lopen
Arinian(1): Megasif
Roadwalker(1): Arraenae

Ninja'd by Megasif. Not sure how good of a defense(defence?) this post is, but at least I changed my vote.

[asterion137 he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Rae said:

Sure a lynch margin by at least two votes would be nice, but why do you want to vote for Megasif in particular? What makes Megasif a worthy candidate of death over anyone else?

Megasif gave several votes in earlier cycles without any explanation whatsoever, and several were random by his own admission. The lynch is the most important tool at the village's disposal so random votes just don't seem right to me. He also sits solidly in the "twilight zone" of players who aren't super active and so fly under the radar but are still active enough to send in the kill. His posts also seem very conservative and safe, like he's intentionally trying to dodge suspicion as much as possible. My vote on Darkness was also basically just a poke to prevent him from being soft-cleared so easily and to gauge his reaction. Oddly, I think his counter-vote on me seems to imply that he's village, because I think an elim would play more defensively to try and avoid suspicion. I don't want to carelessly lynch teammates, but if we catch our house Elim, that would be great for us. I don't think Darkness is it though. Not anymore.

 

24 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'm considering switching my vote to Asterion, because of his quick, not very well reasoned votes/vote changes.

But you switched off someone who made random vote changes where the only colors in his post were green and red.

24 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

It doesn't seem like a time to bus a teammate

I should hope not

Edited November 29, 2017 by asterion137

[DeTess she/her]

@Ookla the Rae, it's not neccesarilly guaranteed that the elims are unevenly distributed if darkness is evil. However the way he's promoting the even division idea would suggest that something is wrong with that if he is evil. Or that at least the elims gain something by having us believe that.

[Megasif he/him]

9 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'm considering switching my vote to Asterion, because of his quick, not very well reasoned votes/vote changes. This lynch on Megasif seems way too easy, and I don't like the voters very much. It doesn't seem like a time to bus a teammate, and I'm fairly suspicious of all 3 of Rand, Ast, and Arinian(I seriously doubt all 3 are elims, but I feel like there's a good chance at least 1 is). I'm pretty confident that Darkness and BR are village though, so, yeah, I'm gonna switch to Asterion. I probably wouldn't if the Cycle was ending right now, but we've still got 24 more hours.

Vote tally:

Megasif(3): randuir, Asterion, Arinian
Asterion(3): Darkness, BR, Lopen
Arinian(1): Megasif
Roadwalker(1): Arraenae

Ninja'd by Megasif. Not sure how good of a defense(defence?) this post is, but at least I changed my vote.

That's more than enough

I found it a bit unsettling how fast I got votes there. I mean, you did make a sound case on me, though wrong. At least it makes me trust you to be a villager.

I have my suspicions on Arin still. Especially with the quick vote on me. Asterion is still a bit iffy.

For today, I don't mind either of Asterion's or roadwalker's lynch, however. Road's a village read for me last cycle however it would clear a few things up.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Megasif

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

(This is slightly out of order >.> misformatted)

Sorry @randuir, won't let me quote you >:|

Ok, so in this post;

Quote

"The big risk of making the member-lists of all 4 houses publicly known is that it would also facilitate a house war. If you are a villager with a kill-role you'd probably mostly use it on suspicions. However, if you also know the member-list of the house that is currently in the lead, than it would be tempting to reduce their favor-income. After all, if you wipe out the Skaa, but are not in the lead, you lose. By keeping the house-lists unknown, the focus actually remains more on the Skaa than it otherwise might be. Sharing house-member lists also only works if the assumption of an even distribution of Skaa is correct, and I'm not yet sure if we can assume that."

I didn't put a house war into consideration because as I said; " perhaps we should consider this as a normal Elim vs Village game".
This all relies on cooperation, consideration and I feel stupid saying this, but a little honor.
And keeping them unknown does not keep the Skaa in focus. How many of the houses here have been keeping tabs about who's in which house, and have been trying to find informaiton on that? All of them, and each bit of information that goes into the House Docs that Skaa can see is more information for the Skaa, and less for the people who are no in the doc, which is primarily why I wanted the information to be shared, as the Skaa already have. And giving everyone this information can stop the fact the Skaa have it being an advantage, as it becomes common knowledge.

And as for the even distribution of skaa. That is the most logical course of action. 

Quote

Now, Darkness could be a very sneaky Skaa, and he made the above suggestion fully knowing that that would more easily facilitate a house war. He might be aware of the Skaa distribution, and might know that they are not evenly distributed, so he was emphasizing the opposing view to get us to focus on a wrong assumption. The above could also just be a villager trying to get useful info without realizing the possible consequences.

Overall, my read on him is Neutral, but I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, because if he is a Skaa we could learn something from his posts (namely that the Skaa aren't evenly distributed and might even lack Skaa in 2 houses, meaning that they would really like to know who is in what house).

Oooor......

You could be a sneaky skaa who is trying to stop the Villagers from gaining access to the information which allows a one up for the Skaa in one form at least. Rand, you're a logical, rational human being. You don't make illogical assumptions such as an uneven distribution. And both Asterion and Arinian, who are under suspicion, voted on @Megasif, who I admittedly haven't been looking at so am not confirmed about his villagerinessisization. Your posts this game have been giving me off vibes, usually you are the one at the centre and driving discussion, and where you are still making lots of tl;dr posts (look at me...) none of them have had the execution they usually have and it feels that even if you are making this large posts of analysis, you are still sticking to the sides a little. 

10 hours ago, Ookla the Rae said:

This line from @randuir's read on DA stuck out to me. If DA is an elim, why would that mean the skaa must be unevenly distributed? That's not a very logical assumption.

I agree with this, if this is true then the Skaa are much more disadvantaged, and there is no point in me sharing my half baked idea as it would just give them more information.

"The way he's promoting".

I mentioned it.

Once.

I was tossing the idea into here, yes, it was half baked but it made sense to me, if everyone had been willing to accommodate and cooperate with it (anyone who wasn't a Skaa)

(And you're the only person who is really looking into my idea, trying to oppose it )

14 hours ago, Arinian said:

Don't know else what I can say. Darkness little bit suspicious with his "My house killed Alv" when write up obviously states that Alv was killed by Skaa, but knowing DA I think it can be that he just didn't paid much attention to his house doc. Also I don't understand DA's statement about second Atium misting in same house in which was Alv. Cause we haven't seen any reasons for other Atium misting to exist... so maybe he know more then we are. Who knows, who knows... 

Oh that was disbarred, part of the miscommunication, I had thought that Kyrian was a Skaa kill, and well, Alv is a Noble so, unless there is another atium misting who happens to be Skaa (which is not probable).

So, @Megasif, you wanted a lawyer? Well I'm just going to go through your posts for some context.

As @TheMightyLopen said, yeah this lynch does indeed feel easy, almost as easy as a lynch on me would have been (Which Asterion and Doc attempted to start). He also brings up that ;

Which is amusing, on the topic of easy votes. 

I have gone through them, and Megasif, yes, he has been doing a lot of random voting etc but he's also been inactive and fairly flitty, and none of his posts have really been "serious" so to speak, unlike the one above. Which just makes me think Megasif to be a villager that is attempting to create some fun and maybe a little chaos, but overall is trying to enjoy this game in a way that he doesn't have to go deeply into it, which is similar to how I have played in the past (which may make my thoughts slightly biased, but I think they make them more reasonable and help understand his activity)

9 hours ago, asterion137 said:

Megasif gave several votes in earlier cycles without any explanation whatsoever, and several were random by his own admission. The lynch is the most important tool at the village's disposal so random votes just don't seem right to me. He also sits solidly in the "twilight zone" of players who aren't super active and so fly under the radar but are still active enough to send in the kill. His posts also seem very conservative and safe, like he's intentionally trying to dodge suspicion as much as possible. My vote on Darkness was also basically just a poke to prevent him from being soft-cleared so easily and to gauge his reaction. Oddly, I think his counter-vote on me seems to imply that he's village, because I think an elim would play more defensively to try and avoid suspicion. I don't want to carelessly lynch teammates, but if we catch our house Elim, that would be great for us. I don't think Darkness is it though. Not anymore.

Asterion, might I remind just how flitty you've been with votes this game? This post just really makes me cringe.

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"basically just a pokevote to prevent him from being soft-cleared so easily and to gauge his reaction".

No, no you thought I was an elim. Or, like I think it really is, you thought I'd be an easy target to drive a lynch for.

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"I don't think Darkness is it though. Not anymore."

So, you say it was just a pokevote to soft clear me, but now you contradict it here saying you thought I was Skaa? Please make up your mind.

Not any more pshh

20 hours ago, asterion137 said:

I think we should try to decide this lynch at least by a margin of 2 votes, to try and prevent the Skaa from tying it with emotional allomancy, so Darkness Megasif

This my dear children, is what we call hypocrisy. All I see is a tied lynch under me, one which Asterion has surprisingly taken a part of.

And 

Quote

so Darkness Megasif

Lol, so what was it again that stopped you from being suspicious of me and more suspicious of @Megasif?

9 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Megasif(3): randuir, Asterion, Arinian
Asterion(3): Darkness, BR, Lopen
Arinian(1): Megasif
Roadwalker(1): Arraenae

14 hours ago, Arinian said:

Well I can explain this all pretty easily. Phatt and Aster both gained many suspicion but I never understood true base for this suspicions, confusing vote switching... well was pretty confusing but I don't see how it made them so suspicious for so many people. So I just avoided voting on them cause never truly suspected them.

And if you want  to know why I changed my vote from Sif on Road is because people in my house decided that Road undoubtebly much more suspicious then Sif and said "Man why you voting for Megasif, he surely not elim! Vote for Road he is dirty Skaa" so I just changed my vote. 

Don't know else what I can say. Darkness little bit suspicious with his "My house killed Alv" when write up obviously states that Alv was killed by Skaa, but knowing DA I think it can be that he just didn't paid much attention to his house doc. Also I don't understand DA's statement about second Atium misting in same house in which was Alv. Cause we haven't seen any reasons for other Atium misting to exist... so maybe he know more then we are. Who knows, who knows... 

Almost forgot Megasif.

So you explain it easily by confusing us more?
I haven't overly paid attention to you before Arinian, I have appreciated your input before in games but seriously.

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"Man why you voting for Megasif, he surely not elim! Vote for Road he is dirty Skaa"

Did they really say that. Amusing how confident they seem, considering that none of us are. And I agree, Megasif is probably not an elim, so why are you voting on him again? Care to explain why you are voting on him?

Unlike @TheMightyLopen, I believe that all three of them, Randuir, Arinian And Asterion could well indeed be Skaa, I am less suspicious of Arinian and Randuir as I am of Asterion however, as like I said before, we both happen to be in the House and interactions there have given me bad eliminator vibes there as well. All three of them have expressed suspicion on me, who as I said before am an easy lynch, perhaps after lynching Megasif (should this lynch be successful), would most likely draw back to and attempt to get me lynched at a later date. All three as well spoke about my confusion as the reason for suspicion, which is all well and good if it weren't for the fact that I explained it all already. Not to mention all three now are voting on Megasif, perhaps to get a tie with the Asterion lynch, perhaps not. Either way they all seem to be going for the easiest target as of now.         Now look, I'm no ace attorney @megasif (won't let me ping you), but given the circumstances and the fact I believe you to be Noble, and Randuir, Asterion and Arinian to be taking advantage of your playstyle and carelessness. Would you care to throw your vote on Asterion to tip the lynch, and any other Nobles should consider voting on Asterion to get that "margin of 2 votes" please  

[DeTess she/her]

Allright, let's get back to my list of people. I'll start with Asterion, as he seems to be the focus of a lot of suspicion.

Spoiler

So, first of all, there's the vote on Cloudjumper. I believe Asterion's reasoning for why he placed the vote, but that doesn't mean that it can't also have been a convenient way to draw votes away from Drake. At the moment, I'm seeing that incident as NAI. 

Then there's the Waltz of the ties at the end of D1. This must be the third time I've gone through that in its entirety to see what did happen. Asterion ended up voting on the confirmed elim in the end. However, at the time of that vote it was unnecessary. Unless I miscounted, Drake was in the lead with 4 votes, while Road had 3 and Asterion had 2. Aster's vote made that a lead of 5 for Drake. The fact that aster did move his vote proved fortuitous, because Straw's vote would have made it a 3-way tie again if Asterion hadn't voted, but if straw's vote hadn't been there then Asterion's vote would probably have been read as a possible bus. That incident is NAI too in my opinion.

Asterion's self-congratulation afterwards feels like a bit overdone to me, but I've said that before about other players, and I've yet to be right, so take that with a pinch of salt.

I can't quite place his vote on Darkness either, as I don't understand why missing cues in the write-up is suspicious.

Overall, I've got a slight elim lean on Asterion.

Rebecca has posted twice, and most of her posts where RP. No read. ( @Rebecca, poke-notification as her last post is about two days ago now).

Next up is Rae.

Spoiler

The only thing that stood out to me about Rae D1 is her vote on Asterion. I don't really follower her reasoning for that vote, and it did create a tie between Asterion and Drake, which is noteworthy. This gives me a slight elim lean.

Rae starts off D2 with big post analyzing what happened at the end of D1. This post makes me lean village on her, though I've got a hard time narrowing down why exactly. I think it's because she seems rather committed to getting all the facts right, in a situations where putting a a bit of a spin in your factions favor in the situations would be rather easy. The rest of her posts seem fairly NAI to me.

So overall, I'm leaning somewhat village on Rae, but as mentioned above, that is in part due to a gut-feeling of one particular post, so take that with a pinch of salt.

Next on my list is a Budgie.

Spoiler

Budgie started up with two posts of RP, with a little bit of role speculation in between. In her third post, she voted on Asterion, saying that he'd been active, but mostly posting Rp without commenting much. There's a bit of pot-and-kettle going on here unless they are in the same house and budgie had some more info from there. I'm not sure how alignment indicative that is, but it's something I wanted to make a note of anyway. She ahsn't said anything else that makes me lean one way or another on her.

I've got a Neutral read on her.

Okay, at this point I think I'm going to just put down the results form my notes, as I really don't have much in the way of unique insights on the remainder. If necessary, I'll elaborate more on them later.

I've got a Neutral read on Arinian. Him switching votes between Megasif and Roadwalker looks odd, but unless someone from his house comes forward to deny what he claimed, I'm going to assume he's telling the truth there. Neither Shqueeves, nor Young Bard have been active enough for me to get a read on them.

I'm reading ever so slightly elim on LivingLegend, for what seemed to be an attempt to start a lynch based on inactivity D1.

I'm reading village on Lopen, because of his vote on Drake D1, and on Doc, based mostly on gut and Pm interactions (so take that with a pinch of salt).

I'm not going to move my vote right now, but if necessary I will break the tie against Asterion later on. I'm just a bit more suspicious of Megasif than of Asterion right now.

Edit: In response to @Darkness_

There's a couple of things I want to mention. First of all, you're right in that I'm the only one opposing the idea that the Skaa are not evenly distributed. In fact, that is one of the reasons why I am opposing it. Everyone else seems to be taking it for granted, which makes me worry. It seems to be the most logical way to distribute, but there's no reason to assume that is is the only balanced way to distribute it, which I think would be the only criteria the GM would use for his distribution.

3 hours ago, Darkness_ said:

I didn't put a house war into consideration because as I said; " perhaps we should consider this as a normal Elim vs Village game".
This all relies on cooperation, consideration and I feel stupid saying this, but a little honor.
And keeping them unknown does not keep the Skaa in focus. How many of the houses here have been keeping tabs about who's in which house, and have been trying to find informaiton on that? All of them, and each bit of information that goes into the House Docs that Skaa can see is more information for the Skaa, and less for the people who are no in the doc, which is primarily why I wanted the information to be shared, as the Skaa already have. And giving everyone this information can stop the fact the Skaa have it being an advantage, as it becomes common knowledge.

This argument seems a bit contradictory to me. Either the Skaa are in all the docs, which means they know almost everything and information gathering between the houses doesn't really get them anything new, or they are not in all the Docs, and they gain something from houses spying one eachother. That does, of course, depend on how much information security each house uses in their doc.

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You could be a sneaky skaa who is trying to stop the Villagers from gaining access to the information which allows a one up for the Skaa in one form at least. Rand, you're a logical, rational human being. You don't make illogical assumptions such as an uneven distribution. And both Asterion and Arinian, who are under suspicion, voted on @Megasif, who I admittedly haven't been looking at so am not confirmed about his villagerinessisization. Your posts this game have been giving me off vibes, usually you are the one at the centre and driving discussion, and where you are still making lots of tl;dr posts (look at me...) none of them have had the execution they usually have and it feels that even if you are making this large posts of analysis, you are still sticking to the sides a little. 

This one, I think I can explain(though I haven't done the self-analysis yet to determine whether it is true ). I generally can devote time to one of two things: RP or analysis. I haven't found a  good way to balance those yet, as I either end up spending 30-60 minutes writing RP or doing analysis, and once I'm done with either, i generally don't have the will to also go do the other for the rest of the day. I've started out doing mostly RP, which meant my analysis lagged behind, and I've only now started to catch back up to everything that's going on as I missed most of C2.

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"The way he's promoting".

I mentioned it.

Once.

I mentioned my opposition to your idea once(and clarified my position a bit more in response to a question), yet you felt the need to respond either way. It's not how often you mention something, but the emphasis you put on it.

Edited November 29, 2017 by randuir
grammar

[asterion137 he/him]

3 hours ago, Darkness_ said:

This my dear children, is what we call hypocrisy. All I see is a tied lynch under me, one which Asterion has surprisingly taken a part of.

 

Do you really expect me to vote on myself? From my perspective, a tied lynch is much better than self-lynch.

 

3 hours ago, Darkness_ said:

So, you say it was just a pokevote to soft clear me, but now you contradict it here saying you thought I was Skaa? Please make up your mind.

Lol, so what was it again that stopped you from being suspicious of me and more suspicious of @Megasif?

Why didn't you quote the rest of my post? I wanted to raise suspicion on you in case you were a skaa, and I didn't necessarily want you lynched, but I thought my post would have more weight with a vote in it. You can go back and read my post if you want. It's quite a bit shorter than the writeups, I promise.

 

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Asterion ended up voting on the confirmed elim in the end. However, at the time of that vote it was unnecessary. Unless I miscounted, Drake was in the lead with 4 votes, while Road had 3 and Asterion had 2. Aster's vote made that a lead of 5 for Drake.

Mine was the fourth vote, it was counted in the writeup

 

[DeTess she/her]

14 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

Mine was the fourth vote, it was counted in the writeup

That is correct, but when you voted, Straw hadn't moved his vote from Drake to  you yet, so at that time you where the fifth vote.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

 

12 hours ago, Ookla the Rae said:

I think Roadwalker is slightly elimmy.

Roadwalker starts with RP and suggests that an Atium misting or a Mistborn could find skaa. It's kind of a weird comment, but mostly NAI. He also asks about hemalurgy. In a later post, he said that his idea was related to an earlier LG. All scadrial games should have hemalurgy or secret Ruin roles, right?

Roadwalker RPs a lot. A good thing to do.

Roadwalker poke votes Bard for being inactive two and a half hours before rollover. This type of vote doesn't seem very useful. I saw other people doing it, and didn't realize that it was super close to rollover. Roadwalker acknowledges that he was doing this to follow the trend of pokevoting inactives. Overall, it's a very weak vote, Isn't that what that kind of vote is for? and slightly elimmy.

In the next post, Roadwalker defends himself by saying that one can gain favor for discussing strategy and that he didn't realize they cycle was about to end. He retracts his vote. I suppose it's fair enough justification, since it feels like his questions were forced attempts to be clever with the system and pad out wordcount. (Note: @Ookla the Walker of Roads, you only get favor for strategy posts that are 200 words or over.) Very very slightly village, since it seems like a villager would care more about favor than an elim. I RP a lot, don't I?

Roadwalker defends himself rather flippantly. Whee.

Roadwalker suggests that Phatt could be an elim who hoped to bus Drake. Seems rather paranoid, because elims lose a lot if a teammate dies D1. But they gain more if they are trusted, rather than staying on the outskirts. Later when BR brings that point up, he says that she is "arguing the point of the skaa". Slightly elim, now that we know Phatt was village and it could have been an attempt to sow suspicion. Not as elimmy as it could be because we also know Phatt was hit with 3 kills in the same turn, so other people were suspicious of him too.

Roadwalker says that elims win through clever ploys and bussing is one tactic that they could use. Uh...I disagree (constantly coming up with clever ploys is exhausting, You have a whole team, a doc, spies, and a whole Long Game to plan them. Coming up with clever ploys is your best chance to win. but this ISO isn't the place to talk about that.

Roadwalker votes on Phatt for self preservation and says that he can claim if his housemates let him. I think deferring to his housemates is rather villagery, because this is a faction game.

Then Road says that Alv PMed him and said to go for a House win, not nobles-over-skaa win. He suggested that Alv was a skaa because of this. Personally, I think this shows that Road is kind of inexperienced with faction games and hasn't developed a ruthless side yet, which isn't surprising considering the lack of faction games recently. I have played on games with multiple teams, but no "houses" or established competing factions. Where you have to kill good guys.

Road says that Alv didn't reveal his role. I'm inclined to believe him, especially since Alv doesn't seem like the type to roleclaim early (or at all).

Overall, Road seems NAI leaning elim. Elimmy enough to raise an eyebrow, but not enough to be a strong lynch candidate. With both Phatt and Alv dead, he also loses his value for information, too. Road...

Yay! Attention!

[Arraenae]

Remind meto ISO Asterion later, when I have computer/tablet access. Typing on a phone is just ugh.

[Lemonelon]

Okay. Back!

I think Asterion does seem suspicious after Darkness broke the posts down, but that could just be moving the suspicions to someone else. I want to see how the day and night plays out before I put my lot in.