Long Game 40: Ashen Rebellion

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

48 minutes ago, Ookla the Rae said:

@TheMightyLopen, we might be able to. Can't you order them to do stuff yourself though?

Also, Shaneysrus isn't House 3. We had Megasif instead.

Lopen, I feel like Doc and Randuir can't both be elims, because otherwise Doc gains nothing from telling you Rand's role. He'd be risking you asking the question of how Randuir isn't dead yet, which doesn't help the elims at all unless they want to buss someone when two of them are already dead. It seems most plausible as Elim Rand/village Doc with suspicions.

N2, my House found that Arinian targeted Phatt with a kill order. Alv was the skaa kill that cycle, so Arinian had to be a coinshot. Based off of the way Arinian's been kind of silent, I think he's trying to slip under the radar. If Arinian has any cycles where his actions weren't accounted for and there was a kill, he's probably the elim coinshot. It doesn't look like the skaa in House 1 has been found either.

Okay, so I think that whoever sent in your House action must have done that. I can, but I was using my Iron to protect myself, and neither Straw or Bard was active. Budgie was at the Ball, and also inactive. At least in our doc.

Ah, okay. That makes more sense.

I agree at this point. Most of what made me suspicious of Doc was his hesitance to be suspicious of randuir, but his explanations for that are reasonable.

Can anyone else in your House confirm that Arinian sent a kill order on phattemer? @Rebecca @Lemonelon Not to be a skeptic, but you suddenly revealing this seems a little off to me. Haven't we been trying to find the coinshot for a while? Why did you wait until now to tell us? @Ookla the Rae

[Arraenae]

The Houses got revealed this cycle and I thought there were multiple coinshots (3 attacks on Platt). There still might be more of them.

Basically, it was a House secret-ish/stuff we knew but couldn't do stuff about but the Houses got revealed this cycle.

Bah, it's late. Goodnight all. Hope this thing made sense.

Also, autocorrect sucks. Autoerrorcatching too.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

50 minutes ago, Ookla the Rae said:

The Houses got revealed this cycle and I thought there were multiple coinshots (3 attacks on Platt). There still might be more of them.

Basically, it was a House secret-ish/stuff we knew but couldn't do stuff about but the Houses got revealed this cycle.

Bah, it's late. Goodnight all. Hope this thing made sense.

Also, autocorrect sucks. Autoerrorcatching too.

Hm. I think I believe you. I want to think about things a little more, and if you could, could you tell us what your House said about Arinian when you found out, and who said what? That way, we might be able to ferret out your eliminator as well if they mentioned Arinian in a suspect way.

I will almost definitely change my vote to Arinian, and suggest everyone else does as well. Either Arinian, or if you don't trust Arraenae and her story doesn't get confirmed, then Randuir is my best guess. @Doc12, @manookla the ookla, @randuir, @Lemonelon, @Rebecca, @ShaneysRus, @A Budgie, @BrightnessRadiant, @livinglegend, @Ookla the Wofl. Whatever we do, we need to make sure to pile on the same player.

Edit: So, I looked back at Rebecca and Lemonelon's activity, and they've both been active fairly recently. They both voted on Shqueeves late last Day Turn, and Lemonelon posted once during the Night. Since then, neither have posted, but have been online. Which means I seriously doubt Rae would lie about something like that, since the chance that one of them would reveal her would be very high.

This means I suspect the final eliminators are Arinian(the Coinshot), randuir(the scanner), and one of Rebecca/Lemonelon. Leaning Lemonelon, but not by much. Hopefully everyone stays active enough to give us a chance!

Edited December 6, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[A Budgie she/her]

Okay, in reply to my mentions...
I realise that my word won't say much, but I haven't even checked my house document in the last day. I've been busy, and away from the internet.
I'll read through everything, do some analysis, and vote on someone later.

[DeTess she/her]

6 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Regardless, I think we should lynch Randuir. I don't like revealing information given to me privately, but at this point I think I need to. Doc told me that Rand is a scanner, and he's scanned Alv and me. He scanned Alv I believe N1, and the elims killed him N2. I think he scanned me N2, and that's why I haven't been attacked. I'm a...forgot what the name is, but I've got Iron. If Rand is an eliminator and scanned me N2, it makes sense that they wouldn't even attempt to double-tap me, as I can use Iron to move myself away from all targeted actions. Add to that that Rand's House knows he's a scanner. The Coinshot has all but proven themselves to be an eliminator, so why is Rand still alive? If he was village, he'd be the biggest threat, since he could find the Coinshot. And if Rand can find the Coinshot, why go to the Ball last Night? He can't scan for them if he's at the Ball. It's not like he can claim he went for protection, because the Coinshot had already revealed themselves as an eliminator by killing Darkness(pretty much).

 

I'm sorry, but I'm not a scanner. My metal can be used in such a way (kinda, with low success chances), but I've only used it hat way twice, once N2, in which I targeted about half the players, and learned that Lopen was some kind of Misting, and once N4, at the ball. The other days I've been using it defensively. I've told Doc that I've done this.

@Doc12, care to explain what happened here?

Edit: As for why I wasn't looking for the coinshot? As I said, I have trouble doing precise targeting and don't have a high chance of success. The reason I attended the ball was because that actually helped me by giving me a more focused group of targets to affect.

Edited December 6, 2017 by randuir

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

21 minutes ago, randuir said:

I'm sorry, but I'm not a scanner. My metal can be used in such a way (kinda, with low success chances), but I've only used it hat way twice, once N2, in which I targeted about half the players, and learned that Lopen was some kind of Misting, and once N4, at the ball. The other days I've been using it defensively. I've told Doc that I've done this.

@Doc12, care to explain what happened here?

Edit: As for why I wasn't looking for the coinshot? As I said, I have trouble doing precise targeting and don't have a high chance of success. The reason I attended the ball was because that actually helped me by giving me a more focused group of targets to affect.

...Well, Doc was unclear about all of that. I specifically asked him if you'd scanned Alv, but he didn't answer. Mostly he just said that your House found out I was a Misting because of a "scanner" and then I asked who the scanner was later on, and he told me it was you. I asked him if you'd scanned Alv, because he'd told the players at the Ball about the Atium misting being in H3, so I thought it was probably you, and I also asked when I was scanned, but he never responded to those particular questions(they were in the middle of 2 other lines of thought, to which he also didn't really respond directly). So I guess a lot of this was based on poor communication and assumptions on my part. Sorry about that.

Okay, that makes a lot more sense and lowers my suspicion of you a fair bit.

Edit: Might as well switch my vote now. Randuir, Arinian.

Edited December 6, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, thanks for clearing that up Lopen. I'd just reached the conclusion that Doc had to be evil if he'd said what you claimed, but this clears some of that up again. I'll do another run-down of my opinions of the various players in a bit and vote, but I've got a couple of Pm's and things I kinda want answers to first before I finish that.

Adela - Brightness Radiant: I reckon she's probably village, unless she's got some kind of defensive role. It wouldn't have been in an elims favor to list the members of her house, as that could have opened her up to some house-war related antics.

Darquez - ShaneysRus: Fairly inactive at the moment. He's in my house and we haven't caught our elim yet(if we have one), so that might be indicative, or it might not be. His posts are fairly NAI.
Manukos: Pretty much the same story as ShaneysRus.

Sami: Same story as Manukos and Shaney, only she's more inactive and not in my house.

Cassandra Bane - Rebecca: Same story as Sami, only she's in a hosue with an unfound elim (assuming even distribution) as well.

Lemonelon: See Rebecca, but a couple of things she said stood out to me. Specifically, after Darkness' death she mentioned that she had been planning on following his voting, but that now that was impossible. Darkness had made his suspicion of me and Arin quite well known, so if she wanted to follow his lead she could have easily done that. This suspicion only makes sense if one of me or Arin is an elim though.
Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae: Let's see if her house backs her up on her claim about Arin before judging her, shall we?
Lady Noodlington - A Budgie: I'm still reading her Asterion vote from D1 as a distancing attempt, as it doesn't really make sense as a regular vote as she accused Asterion of doing pretty much the same thing she was doing. That's the only thing I've got on her that makes me read elim, but she hasn't posted that much. She can't have been the one to order straw killed either, as she was at the ball. Still, slight elim read.
Jonas - LivingLegend: Same story as Sami.

Lopen: Probably village because of his voting on Drake and Asterion.
Young Bard: given the low elim activity, the fact that he's inactive would seem damning, but if he's in a house that has already lost their elim than that changes some things. No clue regarding his alignment.

So, I've intentionally skipped Doc and Arin here. I will want to see Doc's response to some of the recent developments here, and judge things based on that. Arin is in the same boat as Rae, I'm waiting to see whether her house backs her up on her claim or not.

[manukos he/him]

sorry , for being so inactive the past couple of days , i will give no excuse however as that always seems dishonest  

so ,  apart from our house what other house hasnt found an elim in their midst yet?
also i'll join the lynch tomorow , though id rather be someone from a different house first  , for...obvious reasons 

[Lemonelon]

First off, Rae is correct. Day 3 first post is us finding out Arin killed Pratt and thus has a kill role.

Secondly, before half our house was decimated, we had begun talking about a purge and any suspicions we have. My suspicions were on Road and Rebecca. Road has since been cleared obviously and now fall to Rebecca.

However... The coin shot attacked 2 of our members the night after they just overtook us in the favour rankings. Knowing that our Skaa is likely Rebecca as the inactivity in doc and thread kind of align with inactive elims, I’ve asked for a mini ceasefire as all House 1 needs to do is kill off our skaa then kill theirs and they will win the game. 

So, my vote will be going to Arinian to get rid of their elim and all other houses should also be voting for him too because if Rebecca dies this lynch, house 1 will win during the night.

[livinglegend]

Coming clean, I have been a little more focused on the house war than most. I have a google sheet where I have been trying to track the points of each house to determine first who is in what house, and second, who  is just trying to skate by and not worried about gaining favor. Sadly, none of the math has added up and I haven't gotten anywhere with it. What's more, all of that has become obsoleted now that the houses are in the open.

I also haven't been willing to write any posts unless I was sure they would qualify for the 200 word limit for gaining favor for my house. For this reason I haven't posted very many times at all. You can go back and see that is the case. As far as my role I am a misting who used my powers to protect myself the last two nights because I thought it was more important for my house to have survivors (and I couldn't figure out a way to kill anyone using my role).

Here are my reads:

Adela - Brightness Radiant: The only truly active member of My house (until this last cycle), I am 90% sure she is clear. I'm sorry to hear she has been busy/ ill. The house doc has stagnated without her in it.

Sami: The other survivor of my house and completely inactive in the doc. Sami spoke on some flavor of the game on day one and came back for one line on day two. We haven't heard from them since then.

Darquez - ShaneysRus: As far as I can tell, completely ineffective since cycle one. They may have posted since, but nothing to provide favor for their house. (possibly the house one inactive skaa)

Manukos: Manukos is in a similar boat to ShaneysRus. They have yet to earn any favor this game as far as I have been able to determine.

Cassandra Bane - Rebecca: My gut read is bad, but I have no info to support that. Rebecca has been active enough to gain some favor for her house more recently than Shaneys or Manukos, but It still has been cycles since she has tried for favor.

Lemonelon: Has yet to earn favor. Has been more active recently but is still not trying for favor. This is suspicious, because they have been active enough to get at least a little favor for their team.

Rhiannon Aurette - Arraenae:  I am leaning toward trusting Arrenae. I have felt like she is legitimately trying to help the village. The only item of suspicion against her is that we haven't found her house's skaa yet.

Lady Noodlington - A Budgie: My gut on A Budgie is they are skaa, but I'm not willing to vote on them because we have found the skaa in that house.

Jonas - LivingLegend: Has probably been playing this game wrong, but is a committed noble.

Lopen: Has done too much for this village to not be noble. Unless he is a mole among the skaa, he has been key part of lynching the two skaa we have found so far.

Young Bard: Inactive through and through. I don't think a skaa could afford to be this inactive.

Doc: He's been to every ball as far as I can tell, and has RP'd there and in PM's quite a bit. I'm not particularly suspicious of him.

Faron Elverein - Arinian: Arinian's logic has felt off to me, but he,like me, has been playing for his house's win condition ahead of finding skaa. I have not really found anything he has done specifically suspicious; however, If he was the coinshot that killed Phattemer, removing him will end the eliminator kill.

 

Given all this, I will vote for Arinian. If Arinian is the coinshot skaa, I'm fairly certain Lemonelon is the last skaa. He didn't really show up in the game until last cycle and I think it's because he's been busy with an eliminator doc. However, with the skaa so low on numbers, he can't afford to be inactive killed. Hence, he still hasn't posted anything to gain his house favor, but has posted just enough to not be considered truly inactive.

 

Ninja'd by Lemonelon

Edited December 6, 2017 by livinglegend
formatting and clarity

[Arinian]

10 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

This means I suspect the final eliminators are Arinian(the Coinshot), randuir(the scanner), and one of Rebecca/Lemonelon. Leaning Lemonelon, but not by much. Hopefully everyone stays active enough to give us a chance!

Well, don't want to disappoint you but I'm nor coinshot nor skaa. But I'm really targeted phatt with kill action, but my attempt failed.

About elims in my house I would say that I think that Rand and Manukos is probably villagers. I'm very unsure about Manukos. But Rand, well, I'm on 83% sure that Rand is villager.

Shaney most of time was not very active and her actions pretty NAI. Doc... I'm biased(+I don't like to lynch people from my house, phatt is exception too many people pointed on him as suspicios) about him so my judgments about his alignment would be flawed. 

About other probable elims... Well, I don't have many leads. Rebecca, Lemon, Rae. One of them is surely elim, I'm leaning that Rae is elim, cause her vote on Aster didn't really change lynch. Yes, she was able to create tie but we all know that ties resulting in random lynch between voters, so maybe she decided that attempt to save Aster don't worth risk. Hmm...

Maybe Lemon is elim... not sure.

6 hours ago, Lemonelon said:

First off, Rae is correct. Day 3 first post is us finding out Arin killed Pratt and thus has a kill role.

Secondly, before half our house was decimated, we had begun talking about a purge and any suspicions we have. My suspicions were on Road and Rebecca. Road has since been cleared obviously and now fall to Rebecca.

However... The coin shot attacked 2 of our members the night after they just overtook us in the favour rankings. Knowing that our Skaa is likely Rebecca as the inactivity in doc and thread kind of align with inactive elims, I’ve asked for a mini ceasefire as all House 1 needs to do is kill off our skaa then kill theirs and they will win the game. 

So, my vote will be going to Arinian to get rid of their elim and all other houses should also be voting for him too because if Rebecca dies this lynch, house 1 will win during the night.

Hmm... interesting. 1) You assuming that total number of Skaa in this game is 4, right? I don't know, but for me 5 elims on 27 players is more probable number, of course if coinshot is elim then 3-4 is also probable number(so I not discounting this possibility).

2)Also from your post I assume that you think that coinshot is not elim, right? You contradict to yourself or not saying all truth about what you know. Let me show.

You said that all what my house needs for win con is to kill (or lynch, last sentence implies that we need to lynch, right?) Rebecca who you assume is elim and then kill elim in my house, but part about killing elim  means that you believe(or know) that coinshot is not elim, or you assumed that my house have other ways to get rid of (2 or 1, hard to undestand cause Lemon jumps from killing to lynching) elims in one night then vig role?

And from last sentence I see that you think that I elim(if I not misunderstood you). But all what you said not aligns with your first sentence that I have kill role. So I elim or coinshot? Or my house have other ways to get rid of elim at night? Cause even I don't have information if my house have any ways to kill at night. But looks like you have information about that? No?

Lemon. I want explanations from you, cause I'm confused.

[Arraenae]

For all those people saying that I didn't change much with my Asterion vote, you know that I voted on him D1, right? I didn't just tack on a vote at the last minute as an elim ploy to distance myself. I got back from cheer practice, caught up on the thread, and saw that the lynch was either on Megasif and Asterion. (I didn't know exactly what the votes were at. I'm lazy and rely on others for my vote tallies. :P) I didn't want my Housemate to die and the other lynch was on someone that I was already a little suspicious of and the arguments for lynching him sounded good.

@Arinian, why the storms did you put in a kill order if you're not a coinshot?

EDIT:

Arinian's name is mentioned 5 times in our doc.The two times are when Megasif said that he was going to vote on Arinian. Alv discussed he vote with him.

The third time was his action on N2 was announced. Nobody really responded. The only thing that might count as a reaction is when Rebecca says that Alv is dead.

The fourth time is when Lemon said she thinks the Coinshot is from House 1 and asked who we thought it was, and I said Arinian because of the action we caught.

The fifth time is from the playerlist at the bottom. Not very exciting.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Ookla the Rae

[Arinian]

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Rae said:

@Arinian, why the storms did you put in a kill order if you're not a coinshot?

Maybe cause:

Quote

Some players will recieve a role as a Misting. A Misting may burn whatever metal is assigned to them once a Cycle. The actions taken by burning a metal may be anything so long as it can be justified, and the GMs approve. Generally speaking the metals will follow the below.

Allomancy working in this game same as Naming in LG33. Everyone can try to kill (thugs, lurchers) I'm sure even roleless person can try to kill, chance of course would be low (cause Drought in sign up thread said that people can try something to do even if they don't have role).

So, more questions?

39 minutes ago, Ookla the Rae said:

For all those people saying that I didn't change much with my Asterion vote, you know that I voted on him D1, right?

Yeah sorry I forgot this. I'm just tried to think who of you three(Rae, Lemon, Rebecca) looks more suspicios. Now I think I should scratch you from this list 

[Arraenae]

Bah. Arinian, your claim feels really, really off. :/ Could easily be an attempt to avoid being lynched. @other House 1 peeps, did Arinian ever claim in your doc? @randuir, did you ever scan Arinian?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

It's an interesting claim, because I didn't even think of that possibility, but it seems like way too much of a coincidence. One of Arinian, manukos, or ShaneysRus has to be the Coinshot, and ShaneysRus has been fairly inactive. Next, we know that Arinian sent in a kill action on phattemer the Night he's attacked by a Coinshot. Arinian hasn't told us what exactly his role is either, or what else he's been doing with it. He voted on Megasif instead of Asterion as well, which is a point against him.

[Rebecca she/her]

So, I don’t have time to read through all this right now, but I feel like I should post something. So, an elim has not yet been found in my house as you all now know, and I honestly have no idea who it could be (if there is an elim in my house). There are only two people from my house that could be skaa, and I don’t really think I should vote yet.

For one, it’s the end of the cycle, and voting then doesn’t give the person being voted on much time to defend themselves. And I’d feel bad about that. Also, I don’t know who I would vote on. 

Again, I haven’t read through this cycle yet, so this post is just from what I know from the writeup (which I did read earlier).

When I was skimming through, I saw a vote on Lemon. I’m kind of tempted to vote on them too, just because I really want to find and get rid of the elim in our house (if indeed there is one), but I won’t for the reasons mentioned above.

And.... I guess that’s it. Mostly I just wanted to let you all know I’m still kind of here. And, of course, to get favor. 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Rebecca

[Arinian]

I'm not skaa... @randuir, @Doc12, @manookla the ookla. You really think that I'm skaa? Guys?

Ahh... atleast don't kill me with spoon.

[Rebecca she/her]

Now that I have finally had time to read through the whole cycle, I have got some more stuff to say.

First off, the cycle apparently doesn’t end for awhile. That’s my fault for only skimming earlier, and not actually checking the clock. So, maybe I’ll actually vote on someone. We’ll see.

Second, I believe the elim in my house (if there is one) is Lemon. You all have made some really good points on why they seem suspicious. And Rae seems sincere to me. I haven’t really noticed anything elim-ish from Rae as of yet, and I don’t really expect to. 

I still don’t want to vote on Lemon yet though because it will just weaken my house further, and they made a good point. I think house one will just win in the night if we don’t get rid of their skaa this cycle.

 I guess who seems most suspicious from house one is Arinian. Mostly for the reasons you all stated (I’m not going to repeat them all here, because that would be boring).

Also, I’m a Noble. Just thought you all might want to know, as some of you seem suspicious of me. 

And, I guess that’s it.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Rebecca

[manukos he/him]

7 hours ago, Arinian said:

I'm not skaa... @randuir, @Doc12, @manookla the ookla. You really think that I'm skaa? Guys?

Ahh... atleast don't kill me with spoon.

not realy , but you are the most likely culprit , plus  there isnt a chance you are getting off with so many votes ,  so if you are , i want those sweet sweet points .

furthermore whether or not arinian is an elim  ithink going after house 3 as they are quite small and smoking out a skaa will be easier 

 

[Arinian]

5 hours ago, manookla the ookla said:

not realy , but you are the most likely culprit , plus  there isnt a chance you are getting off with so many votes ,  so if you are , i want those sweet sweet points .

furthermore whether or not arinian is an elim  ithink going after house 3 as they are quite small and smoking out a skaa will be easier 

 

Waat? 

At first you saying that you "not really" think that I elim. Then you saying that I elim (culprit... I don't understand what you mean by that, but nahh nevermind). And here only 5 votes on me with all our house votes we can create atleast tie so it's easy to get off with "sooo many votes". Then you talking about some sweet points... but by rules you will get points only for lynch on Skaa and you said that you think that I'm not Skaa. Are you insane? 

15 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

One of Arinian, manukos, or ShaneysRus has to be the Coinshot, and ShaneysRus has been fairly inactive. Next, we know that Arinian sent in a kill action on phattemer the Night he's attacked by a Coinshot. Arinian hasn't told us what exactly his role is either, or what else he's been doing with it. He voted on Megasif instead of Asterion as well, which is a point against him.

I'm lurcher. That what you wanted to hear? And Shaney was on forum less then 20 hours ago, she just lurked. She checked thread from time to time but didn't posted. And that I targeted phatt not much bigger coincidence than 3 other players attacking him on same turn.

And that Rae scanned me and revealed it only now of course it's all coincidence... it's all not so big coincidence as me targeting someone.

[Arraenae]

 @Doc12, @randuir, and @manookla the ookla, did Arinian ever roleclaim in your doc, and if he did, what did he claim?

[Arinian]

Right... okay... Rebecca. Lemon.

[DeTess she/her]

I've been somewhat ill/exhausted today, meaning that I haven't been able to work up the time and effort to make a significant post today.

Luckily, This cycle will last till tomorrow evening for me, so I will hopefully have time to make a post then. @Ookla the Rae, Arinian hasn't claimed anything in the doc.

[DeTess she/her]

On 12/6/2017 at 0:49 PM, Lemonelon said:

So, my vote will be going to Arinian to get rid of their elim and all other houses should also be voting for him too because if Rebecca dies this lynch, house 1 will win during the night.

Well, you've convinced me, Lemon. Rebecca. I've been arguing a bit in favor of trying to lynch you instead, but the decision was that Rebecca was the more suspicious of the two of you, despite this rather blatant invocation of house politics to try and get the different nobles to clash over this issue.

That's not saying that I'm convinced that Arin is innocent, but as Lemon put it so nicely, trying to lynch the house 3 elim first is just in our favor. Once that's done, I'll be up for working my way thorough my house to take out our elim(s).

Vote tally:

Rebecca(3): Doc, Arin, Rand

Arin(5): Rae, Lopen, Lemon, Living, Rebecca

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Sooooooooo I kinda went inactive *very shamed xD Sorry y'all I'm just so busy rn. I literally have no idea what's going on anymore cuz I've been out for several cycles. I'd loooove a sum up if anyone's willing. For now, at least I'll read through this cycle.

Edit: Okay finished reading through the thread and since no one has posted since me I'll just add this here xD

I'm very out of the loop, but reading through this cycle has given me a pretty good run down of what's been happening. Also, I think Asterion was the last person I voted on and it was because of some stuff Legend told me in the doc and I was busy and so I voted on him cuz the reasons made sense so I trust Legend a lot.

So, from thinking back on what I know of the game and what I read this cycle I'd say that Lopen is definitely my top villager read(and if you're not then good job bro, you're very good at fooling me xD). I can see Rand as being an elim...something just feels off to me about him. Everyone has good reasons for why Arin and Rebecca are suspicious too and to avoid any vote manipulation or stuff changing tonight when I can't get on(cuz I have a Christmas party:P) then I'll vote Arinian.

Edited December 8, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant