Quick Fix Game 25: A Sundered Sky

[Eternum he/him]

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Also, Eternum is sounding a lot like me when I started SE but with more sass.

I don't know if that's a compliment, but I think I'll take it as one

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Sorry about making you feel weird.

I would like to hear your reasons for suspecting Rae and Elith. I've kinda got a village read on you right now, but it's hard to have a village read on someone who's suspicious of 3 players that I think are village...

Anyways, once I get back from church, I'll try to do a full analysis on that group of players I mentioned as suspicious. Shouldn't take too long. >>

Edit: Oh, and regardless of which role I am, I'd appreciate some protection this Cycle, if I can get it. Because if I'm an Elsecaller, my extra life is gone, and if I'm a Lightweaver, I can't protect myself this Cycle.

Yeah, IDK.  

Ok.  For Rae, it's mostly these things;  I see that, although she has posted a lot, there doesn't seem to be a lot of solid stuff.  The ISOs, while nice, are really just compilations.  A few of them had some analysis, but nothing big, and I didn't really see where the Stick suspicion came from either.  A bit of a bad gut read.  Stick ended up being village, which I guess doesn't necessarily mean anything by itself, but it does add to the overall read.

For Elith, it's everything that happened yesterday.  You even voted on him yesterday, and I wasn't as convinced of his innocence afterwards as you were.  Plus, PK ended up being village.  And this post;

11 hours ago, Elithanathile said:

Waitwaitwait he was village?

Oh my that looks bad on me then. Well I could say that I'm innocent, but it wouldn't do a whole lot, huh.

That doesn't exactly scream innocence to me.  It actually just feels off in general.  He seemed to occasionally deliberately misconstrue things, and his tone this whole game seems odd to me. 

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

A C1 WGG is more strategically viable because at C1 people have no more than mild suspicions and gut reads, I think. Someone that's "cleared" C1 will probably gain more trust than someone "cleared", say, C4.

While I agree with this, I'm not suspicious of Lopen.  I'm just paranoid of him.  The difference being, I don't think he is an Elim, but I could see him being one.  Maybe.

I'm also generally suspicious of people who's posts don't seem to have a lot of content.  

[Eternum he/him]

Mage, you misunderstood my post. I'm not saying Lopen is part of a WGG, I was responding to his question. He asked why a C1 WGG was more strategically viable. I think Lopen is village, tbh.

Also, was that last sentence throwing shade at me?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

A C1 WGG is more strategically viable because at C1 people have no more than mild suspicions and gut reads, I think. Someone that's "cleared" C1 will probably gain more trust than someone "cleared", say, C4.

(*Snort*, C4)

Also, honestly, don't tell us. It'll only benefit the elims.

Okay, thanks for the explanation.

Yeah, that's why I haven't. I just offered in case anyone thought it was important to know somehow.

3 hours ago, Elenion said:

@TheMightyLopenAlso, C4 you'll have players who need to be eliminated based on role or analysis, while C1 is really only good for casting minor suspicion or fear kills. There are usually no hard-cleared or widely trusted villagers and few role-claims C1.

Also, Eternum is sounding a lot like me when I started SE but with more sass. I'm reading slightly village on him.

Fair enough.

I'm still not entirely sure what I think about Eternum. One minute I'll read him as village, the next I'm suspicious of him. That's partly why I'd like to do a review.

Speaking of reviewing, my family is having (unexpected)visitors over, so I won't get to that for a while.

[Arinian]

I will vote for Sart. 

Reasons. He just jumped from one easy lynch target to another and honestly there was not much base under his votes, main thing Yitzi and PK can be accused it's flying under radar... I don't know if it can be counted as a good reason for my vote, but still I voting for Sart.

Also I don't know but for me feels weird how easy Lopen and Jon dropped their votes from Sart after that post:

Quote

I voted on Arinian for 3 reasons.

1. Gut vote: Something in his posts rubbed me the wrong way. I needed to post to avoid the inactivity filter, and I wanted to vote to do my duty to the thread.
2. Throwing suspicion: During cycle 2, he voiced suspicion of 5 different people in one post. Now, that's not terrible, but he didn't vote on a single one of them. I suspect that he was trying to get us to lynch one of the candidates without getting his hands dirty. The post is on page 14 if you want to look at it.
3. His vote on stick: His reasoning in his post was "If you want it. Shrug" I'm not against adding a second vote to a player, but doing it that way rubbed me wrong the wrong way. It seemed too opportunist. I wasn't sure if Stick was village or not, but I was worried that we were lynching Stick because he talked a lot. I wanted to put my vote on someone who was quieter. We have a bad tendency to lynch vocal players, which kills discussion.

I'm a bit worried about having two votes on me. I know I'm village, although you have no reason to believe me. If I was really an eliminator, don't you think I would have tried to defend Stick more? That way I would look better during the next cycle.

Maybe I reading too much in it but I think it can be distancing.

And his phrase "Gut vote: Something in his posts rubbed me the wrong way. I needed to post to avoid the inactivity filter, and I wanted to vote to do my duty to the thread." Maybe I also see too much in it but part about "avoid inactivity" and "vote to do my duty to the thread" feels wrong... something in phrasing hits me... Looks like he didn't want to post but needed to do it just not to die. Maybe I'm just paranoic *shrug*.

[Magestar he/him]

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

Also, was that last sentence throwing shade at me?

Not really.  That wasn't my intention, at least.

[Eternum he/him]

Arinian, I think you're overanalyzing Sart's post. The use of the word "duty" doesn't mean that they didn't want to vote, it just means they had to.

The emphasis you added forgets that he said "I wanted to vote". (Emphasis mine, if it's not obvious)

Also, the reason Jon and Lopen dropped their accusations is because (I'm making assumptions here, correct me if I'm wrong) that post, to me at least, feels village-y, and it must have read village to them too, I think.

I'll keep withholding my vote to see if anyone else wants to add something.

 

EDIT: Oh, alright then Mage. I read a bit too much into it, then. Sorry? (If anyone wants clarification, Lopen said earlier in this cycle that I was one of his elim suspects because I had been inactive compared to most these past couple of days, though I have clarified why. I thought Mage was talking about that.)

Edited August 6, 2017 by Eternum

[Elenion he/him]

4 hours ago, Eternum said:

I don't know if that's a compliment, but I think I'll take it as one

It's just an observation, but if you want to take it as a compliment go ahead. I will compliment you on your activity level, though.

And it looks like I haven't yet put my vote on Sart. I'll do that.

[Eternum he/him]

I honestly don't think Sart is elim. I'm leaning towards voting for Arinian, but I'll wait just in case anyone has anything to add.

I intend to vote in the next hour or so, though.

[Eternum he/him]

Arinian, because they're tunneling Sart a lot and acting suspicious, as pointed out by Sart himself. My gut also tells me they're elim, and I generally trust my instincts.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Eternum

[Yitzi2]

By the way, @Eternum, I notice you're fairly new.  Have you played Mafia before (not on 17th Shard)?

Edited August 6, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Eternum he/him]

Yes, I have. I actually said I had, when Rae said that they were suspicious of me for using terminology in my first SE game. I've only played twice total though, three including this game, so I am pretty new.

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

Vill read on

Elith (been playing consistently)
Eternum (has been up and down, but he's new so *shrugs)
Mage (it's still up in the air)
 

Not really sure on

Elenion
Orlok (is playing differently from what I'm used to, more responding to other players than driving discussion from his end)
 

Suspicious of

Roadwalker (hasn't been very active, what he has posted has seemed a bit iffy to me, will ISO later maybe)
Jondesu (Village reads as well, but has been tunnelling on PK, will ISO later)
 

I have to go to work now, so I'll hopefully finish this later as well as the ISO posts I've been writing *sigh

EDIT: Also I agree with @Magestar, Eliths's post earlier does sound suspicious.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Darkness Ascendant

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Quote

I've actually got more of a village read on Winter. I know she's said some strange things, but from what I can remember, I feel like this is more like her village playstyle than her elim play style.

I wouldn't mind going Arinian, though. At this point, I think I'm more suspicious of Elith than Arin, but we'd need every vote we can get to change this lynch.

@TheMightyLopen, I felt it worth calling attention to this post, reading back through the thread. Would you mind explaining why you were so certain that the Paranoid King lynch would be a mislynch that you were desperate to get someone else lynched?

Quote

For the people who are voting on me for not voting on PK, I did vote on him in my last post, which had been the first one in quite a while. I didn't vote on PK earlier on since I didn't realize what he had proposed was against the rules, and if Orlok had edited his post, which I thought was possible at the time, then I wanted verification that he had been lying to me, and not merely mistaken. I completely missed the clarification by El that it had been a typo, or I wouldn't have held off for so long.

@Elithanathile, this doesn’t answer the question I put to you. The part I find suspicious is here:

Quote

Yes, I PMed PK, because it was a start to PMing somebody. It doesn't mean I thought he was village or trustworthy. And if I feel he is feeding me false info intentionally and may or may not be evil, I will out him. Fun fact.

This was at the end of C2, when Paranoid King was potentially to be lynched, and you refrained from voting on him at that point. Why?

18 hours ago, Sami said:

What?! No! We did not not just lynch another villager  my most profound apologies to PK 

Let me go back and reread the last cycle....

This feels artificial to me, and certainly used to be perceived as a hallmark trying to make it seem like people cared. I don't know you well enough, though, Sami, to know whether this is normal. Could anyone else weigh in?

18 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

That's too bad. Well, one thing I'm taking from last Cycle is a stronger village read on Elith. Really, the only thing I thought was suspicious about him was the stuff about Orlok, and I think that's much clearer now.

Ouch. I got attacked.  Guess I'm cleared now, huh? 

Currently, I think Elith, Orlok(paranoid though), Sart, Bard, Arraenae, Winter, and DA are villagers. Those aren't strong reads, but oh well. I'm still leaning slightly village for Stink as well.

My elim reads are more just a group that I'd like to focus on: Eternum, Jebus, Elenion, Roadwalker, Jondesu, Sami, Ecthelion, Yitzi, and Arinian. I feel like most of the eliminators are probably in this group. They haven't posted a lot, or done anything that would really draw attention to themselves.

What does everyone else think about this group? I'd like to see as many opinions as possible, since we really really need to get an eliminator this Cycle.

Emphasis mine. Also worth calling out, I think. @TheMightyLopen, I had a strong village read on you last cycle, which is now weakening. I'm notoriously bad at recognising humour, but it's another thing influencing my read.

Would you set out why you're suspicious of the players you claim to be suspicious of and why you think the village group are villagers?

16 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Maybe it's just me, but Eternum's knowledge of terminology here feels a little weird. It feels like he's already familiar with a lot of stuff, which could happen if he was an elim.

Off the top of my head, I haven't been feeling the same effort with Orlok that I normally do. He's said that his playstyle would be different so he could have some time with El, but I haven't felt the same sense of solviness that I normally feel. Orlok's null for me, and considering that's him, it might be elimy. I'll look at his posts later, after I've slept.

Off the top of my head (again, I need to sleep soon), I kind of trust Lopen. Not for his attack, but because he feels like he's been putting effort into the game, which he has admitted is something he doesn't do as an elim.

I'm certainly not feeling like I'm doing as well as I did in LG36, which is hardly surprising. Part of it will be the fact that it's just a Quick Fix. In LG36, I had 72 hours each cycle to think over the game, and ask questions. I think I spent ~6 hours a day on it, which is up to 18 hours a cycle. This game, the 24 hour format significantly restricts that, along with the time I'm spending with El this week. My activity will decrease further, as we're flying off to Washington DC this evening, and meeting Wilson in Utah later in the week.

3 hours ago, Elenion said:

It's just an observation, but if you want to take it as a compliment go ahead. I will compliment you on your activity level, though.

And it looks like I haven't yet put my vote on Sart. I'll do that.

@Elenion, apologies if I've missed it, but would you please explain why you're voting on Sart? You mentioned a vote on him that didn't send last cycle - what was your reasoning for that vote? Who else are you suspicious of, and why?

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Arinian, because they're tunneling Sart a lot and acting suspicious, as pointed out by Sart himself. My gut also tells me they're elim, and I generally trust my instincts.

@Eternum, would you tell us in your own words what you find suspicious? SImialrly, who else are you suspicious of, and why?

Edited August 6, 2017 by Orlok Tsubodai
fixing mentions

[Jondesu he/him]

Sorry to have been absent today. I've read the thread here and there, but today was busy so I didn't sit down and type up a response until now.

I wasn't exactly 100% sure PK was Elim, of course, but man, I'm a little surprised he wasn't.

Lopen, I'm not clearing you completely, but I think I agree that not many Elim teams would have chosen to do a WGG at this time and with you.  I'm going to keep it in mind as a potentially valid approach in the future, simply because it does seem less likely.  

As for voting today…I can't honestly say I have any valid suspicions left right now, nothing based on anything I can see.  I'm neutral on Sart at this point, and no one else is giving me Elim vibes for the moment.  There's several players I don't have any hope of getting much of a read on, so maybe I'll have to put a vote on one of them at some point (Orlok, Arin, STINK, at least, never give me any reliable reads in the thread, so I have to rely on scanning roles or other roles/events to reveal them, or else take a change as the number of players begins to shrink). I'm going to take the rare tactic today of abstaining from the vote, at least for the moment.  I'll check back on the thread before I go to bed (probably multiple times because I'm a bit neurotic), and if I see something that sways me to one player or another I'll vote, but unless I have a decently strong suspicion come up, I might just stay out altogether today.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

36 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@TheMighyLopen, I felt it worth calling attention to this post, reading back through the thread. Would you mind explaining why you were so certain that the Paranoid King lynch would be a mislynch that you were desperate to get someone else lynched?

 

Emphasis mine. Also worth calling out, I think. @TheMightyLopen, I had a strong village read on you last cycle, which is now weakening. I'm notoriously bad at recognising humour, but it's anther thing influencing my read.

Would you set out why you're suspicious of the players you claim to be suspicious of and why you think the village group are villagers?

 

I was actually just trying to get some more information at the end of last Cycle. I did think it felt like a mislynch, but I overstated things just a bit to see who might try to save him. In Aman's championship game(the first one), the end of Cycle was a very important time because it got people to show who they'd really lynch or not. When I got online, PK had 5 votes and I don't think anyone else had more than 1, which meant no one else was probably going to weigh in in the last hour or so giving us no new information. So I thought I'd try and see who genuinely wanted to kill who, which might also give us good information if PK was an eliminator and someone tried to save him.

I was just messing around with that comment about being cleared. I do think it points to my innocence(WGG's aren't really my style, and I would almost certainly vote against it in a QF where my team would have a 3 mislynch lead and still have a Truthless running around), but my opinion doesn't really make a lot of difference...

Well, the players I mentioned as suspicious I just think haven't really put a lot of effort in solving the game. It's not that they've been inactive or anything, it's just that I've felt like most of their posts have been "safe" posts.

I'm reading you as village, because I think you've sounded genuine so far. I do have a nagging feeling about you that I just can't shake, but unless I see something that really makes me doubt you, I'll likely ignore it. Winter and DA, I'm tonereading as village. From what I've seen of them before, they read like their past village games, I think. Sart, I'm torn about. I really didn't like his accusation of Arinian, but then I did like his explanation for that vote. Elith, I've had a mild village read on for most of the game, except last Cycle when I went after him a bit, which then changed back to a village read after his explanation. Bard seems like he's putting in a good amount of effort to analyze things, and it seems more like he's just putting his thoughts down than carefully constructing fake reads. Rae, mostly just a gut read. I don't recall anything specific.

I'll likely vote when I get back from church. I won't have time for that analysis, which is too bad, especially if I'm killed. Currently, I feel like not many of the eliminators have been in the spotlight, so most of them have been able to hang back and not overextend themselves to help a teammate out of trouble or push a mislynch too hard(instead leaving up to villagers :/).

Eh, I think I'll drop my vote on Arinian. I don't really have anything concrete to offer as evidence against him. Just have a bad gut read on him. I may change this when I get back, depending on what happens while I'm gone.

Edit: bad read on Jon's last post.

Edited August 6, 2017 by TheMightyLopen

[Arinian]

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Arinian, because they're tunneling Sart a lot and acting suspicious, as pointed out by Sart himself. My gut also tells me they're elim, and I generally trust my instincts.

I'm tunneling? You can advice better target for lynch with solider reasons? Also I don't know what you finding suspicious. Only thing that I can think of that I'm looking suspicious for you that I hardly advocated for Stick's lynch and was wrong about it (that's so, I was wrong about Stick and surely I would be wrong in more things then that, but as I know it's usual for villagers to be wrong), or maybe cause I'm not very careful with my votes and not always bringing good solid reasons for them but not only I doing that (you of course can blame me that it's not optimal play and blah blah blah). 

Okay, looks like all discussion will start after I will go sleep... as on previous cycle. So be wise with your choices. Ohh... almost forgot, I'm not elim guys (just for "I told you so" ).

Edited August 6, 2017 by Arinian

[Sparkrunner he/him]

I am back! Internet! Hooray! My cat! My turtle!

Can someone give me a rundown of what has happened recently? Also @TheMightyLopen why group me in with the elims when I explained my absence? (As a side note, I should be more active from now on.)

[Elenion he/him]

@Orlok Tsubodai  I explained my reasons for voting him (well, attempting to) last cycle: he accused Arinian for going after Stick too strongly, but at the time Stick's alignment was unknown, so unless Sart was elim he couldn't have known that Arin was on the wrong trail.

Also, right now I'm getting village tonereads from Rae, Winter, Eternum, DA, and Arinian. That's right, Arinian. He sounds different than his last game as village and very much like his village self.

Like Lopen I'm feeling a bad gut reaction to Jon's latest post: it seems indecisive, and made right at a time where there is no prevailing suspicions that everyone supports, so it feels like it's trying to sound helpful without stepping on anyone's fingers.

 

Here's a full reads list: (100 is village, 0 is elim)

Elith: taken lots of flak for a few posts, but I haven't played enough with him to tell if that's AI. 48/100

Mage: Always difficult to read for me, and nothing he's said has really triggered a read. 50/50

Eternum: Village toneread. 55/100

Jebus: Few posts, no read. 50/100

Orlok: If Winter, Rae, Lopen and I are all village like my reads say, the elims need a tactician, and Orlok fits the bill. No solid evidence yet, but paranoia is getting real. I wouldn't lynch him but I'll be watching. 49/100

Winter: Village toneread. 60/100

Roadwalker: Neutral read. 50/100

Jon: Has made 2 posts that have read evil on my radar. 40/100

Sami: I'm not reading evil on that one post like Lopen is, so she's still at 50/100

STINK: Chance is against him being evil since he was just barely evil in LG36. Call me for the gambler's fallacy, but GMs are not completely random with balance. 53/100

Rae: Village toneread. 55/100

Lopen: Village toneread, plus extremely low chance of WGG. 65/100 and somebody pls protect him.

Darkness: I know from Wolfia he can be hard to read, but I'm with Lopen in that he's seeming village. 55/100

Bard: I can't remember any of his posts... 50/100

Ecth: We've beaten the dead horse already. His comment about nearly dying read as village, but not too village, so 53/100

Yitzi: Really, the same analysis as I did to STINK. 51/100

Sart: Where my vote is. He's not lurking as is his elim tell, but he knows it's his tell so it's an IKYK. 43/100 for the Arin accusation.

Arinian: Village toneread. 55/100

Sub-50 reads: Elith, Jon, Sart, Orlok (but just barely for him).

In typing this out I've realized that I now distrust Jon more than Sart, because Sart could have been making a gut read on Stick and just have read her right. So I'll be switching my vote from Sart to Jon hoping that this swap doesn't end up biting me in the backside later.

[Jondesu he/him]

2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Edit: bad read on Jon's last post.

 

30 minutes ago, Elenion said:

@Orlok TsubodaiJon: Has made 2 posts that have read evil on my radar. 40/100

In typing this out I've realized that I now distrust Jon more than Sart, because Sart could have been making a gut read on Stick and just have read her right. So I'll be switching my vote from Sart to Jon hoping that this swap doesn't end up biting me in the backside later.

Yeah… kinda knew that might happen.  I had good reasons, though. Mostly that I'd just woken up from a too-long nap on a day where I'd already been tired as Braize, and didn't have anything clear enough in my head to want to commit to a vote on anyone (and like I said, no real firm suspicions).  I even took a look down the player list to see if anyone has been just inactive or flying under the radar, and while there's some folks not as active as others, everyone's been posting relatively consistently.

Honestly, at this point, I'm dropping a vote back on you, Len.  Nothing personal, but that last post of yours came across as a target-seeking opportunity for an Elim, similar to things I've done.  I know you do that as a villager usually too, but the way it's all organized feels a little off to me.  I promise it's not a retaliation vote. 

Edited August 7, 2017 by Jondesu

[Sart he/him]

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

[Jondesu he/him]

41 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

I will note that Yitzi and I traded roleclaims via PM and I’m still alive, which speaks for him just a little, but it doesn’t mean a lot I know. He initiated it and I deferred a cycle before agreeing (we exchanged roles C2).

[Orlok Tsubodai]

In an airport about to board with El, and have been at her harp recital today, hence the reduced activity.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

I am back! Internet! Hooray! My cat! My turtle!

Can someone give me a rundown of what has happened recently? Also @TheMightyLopen why group me in with the elims when I explained my absence? (As a side note, I should be more active from now on.)

Sorry about that. I mostly just mentioned you because I couldn't remember anything significant about you, so I wanted to review everything you'd said. I'm not necessarily suspicious of you, just don't have anything that tells me to trust you.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:

Yitzi (1): Sart
Sart (1): Arinian, Elenion[1]
Arinian (2): Eternum, Lopen
Jondesu (1): Elenion[2]
Elenion (1): Jondesu

I'm tempted to put my vote on Arinian instead, but I've got a stronger read on Yitzi, so I'm going to keep my vote there.

So I'm basically in control of the lynch. Scary. >>

19 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I will note that Yitzi and I traded roleclaims via PM and I’m still alive, which speaks for him just a little, but it doesn’t mean a lot I know. He initiated it and I deferred a cycle before agreeing (we exchanged roles C2).

Interesting. I'm tempted to switch to Yitzi, tbh. Or Len. Urgggghhhh. If my vote is moved, I think everyone should assume it was an eliminator.

I'm getting better reads from Arinian's last couple posts(this is happening a lot lately). Same with Jon. I kinda feel like an eliminator would have gone out of his way to place his vote somewhere earlier, plus mentioning his role claiming with Yitzi feels villagery somehow.

Y'know what, I'm going with Len. Purely gut on this one. If I'm wrong, sorry Len. And if I die, sorry everyone else. I know this hasn't been my best game. :/ Try to get the quieter players more involved, and try to get the voting going earlier. Arinian.

Ninja'd...okay good, not a vote.

[Elbereth she/her]

Cycle is closed!