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"Murder. Just like that, my head was swept out of the gutter- like someone had pulled a comastick on me and called me Shirely. Nobody calls me Shirely. In my mind, I absconded inadvertently back to that bloody night last week to another cold case. It'd been raining cats and dogs- without the dogs- although it's not like those sly cats would tell you otherwise. In this kingdom, it was a dog-sit-on-face-of-other-dog world, and that meant everyone had to hold their breath when it came to making friends. But I had friends in relatively equidistant places, which in layman's terms basically meant nothing- and that's the way I liked it. I may be a P.I, so some people assume I might be a little small- but according to the Knight Inspectorate, I was the hardest Dick in the city. A title I take with absolute seriousness, though I hear hushlanders have made being a dick some sort of slander in the hushlands- which, frankly, is really dumb. I'll explain the rudolph case later, because right now I'd put a hand down my trousers, whipped out my communicators glass and called my lady mistress to tell her to meet me outside with a copy of Shakespeare's last sonnet (the actual last sonnet, not the Hushlander censored abbreviation) and a big stick. If I was going to get to the bottom of the murder of Mr Stick (who I am assured, is a stick)- first of all I'd need to make it to lunch, but in the meantime while everyone else is focusing on canoodling ... There was one man who shouldn't have been there who wasn't, and naturally it was up to me to follow this issue up and hit in the back of the head with aforementioned big stick (not to be confused with Mr stick- who I am assured, is a stick).
"This rug race isn't blue enough for the two of us, Joey Jedal. Meet your nemesis." I whispered and thwacked (tapped) the guy who stood in the corner of the room in the back of his noggin. It wasn't enough to knock him into a comma, but it was enough to get his attention. Jedal didn't speak much, which theoretically put him in my good books- so I felt a little bad about ganging up on him, and slightly worse that I couldn't come up with a pun about sticks on the spot ("this is a stick up"? "you're in a sticky situation now, Jeddy"?). But, at the end of the day, nothing stuck out more in a crowded room than a silent fart- so it was up to me to point the finger. And if I was going to point a finger, I wanted to be the guy in the room with the bigger stick."

"Oh, and the key to breaking the rudolph case? So simple, even a blind oculator could see it. Marmalade crabs."

@Jedal 

I find lurkers suspicious, and by my count Jedal has contributed just barely enough pretense innocent motions to slip under the radar so far. Do you have an excuse, Jedal? because otherwise, that's where my vote is v:
I will be honest, I haven't been paying 100% attention to all the arguments going on because they can be difficult to follow at times, but I was asked to contribute a bit more and this is where my thoughts are atm. Although, if poking lurkers isn't a viable strategy- I don't mind aiming for a different approach.

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I'm paying attention to this game, but I don't have a lot of time on my hands and I don't have a lot to say that I think is helpful.  I'll try and make a longer post later.

It always surprised me how fast QF's go. :P  I'm not sure exactly what's going on with all these marriages;  Half of me is thinking that the reason there are so many is that some of the people doing them are Elims, but on the other hand, it would be really helpful for the village to be marrying as well.  Hmm.

I do have some reads on people, but none solid enough that I want to make them public RN.

 

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To be honest I'm at a bit of a loss for whom to vote on. My gut says Lopen is evil, but judging by people's responses the last time I voted on someone without perfect evidence, I'll refrain from voting on just a gut read for now.

Edited by Ecthelion III
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3 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm paying attention to this game, but I don't have a lot of time on my hands and I don't have a lot to say that I think is helpful.  I'll try and make a longer post later.

It always surprised me how fast QF's go. :P  I'm not sure exactly what's going on with all these marriages;  Half of me is thinking that the reason there are so many is that some of the people doing them are Elims, but on the other hand, it would be really helpful for the village to be marrying as well.  Hmm.

I do have some reads on people, but none solid enough that I want to make them public RN.

 

I know that you said you were going to make a more substantial post later, but even so this feels off to me. (Yes, yes, there's an odd feeling about you every game. :P Sorry.) You don't actually say anything here. QFs are fast, marriage could be either evil or good, you have reads but don't care to share. That's it. 

Also, why wouldn't you share those reads? I mean, there are reasons, but them not being solid doesn't exactly cut it for me. This is a QF in the third cycle, and one vote has been cast. Mine, for something that isn't even an evil read but a dislike of an attitude. Any reads would be welcome. Why don't you want to put yourself out there and say who you suspect? Saying that you don't have any reads to share isn't going to generate discussion, and we need that right now. 

11 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

To be honest I'm at a bit of a loss for whom to vote on. My gut says Lopen is evil, but judging by people's responses the last time I voted on someone without perfect evidence, I'll refrain from voting on just a gut read for now.

Are you referring to Rand and myself calling you out, or another time? Because if it's the former, that definitely doesn't mean you shouldn't vote. It isn't because you didn't have perfect evidence that I had a problem with it. If no one voted without perfect evidence, no one would ever vote. It was the illogic of the accusation that struck me. 

So please, vote on Lopen or whomever else you desire. Doing so on a gut read without providing any reasoning is something I don't like terribly much because the person can't defend, which lessens the discussion that can come out of it, but any voting is better than nothing. 

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Do you mean no logic is better than poor logic? Here's the thing. I don't have any solid suspicions right now. I could vote on one of my suspicions with a little bit of logic, and I would be called illogical and maybe voted on. Or, I could vote on someone providing no logic at all, which you say I should do. This (in my opinion) is why people aren't voting. Anyone who votes without enough evidence to back them up makes themselves a target.

You know what, at this point I'm convinced either Rand or Lopen is evil. I'll shoot.

Edited by Ecthelion III
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Okay, so here's a list with my thoughts on just about everyone:

  • Magestar hasn’t been active much, apart from one post in cycle 1, and one post this cycle, neither of which was particularly informative. Neutral\slightly elim (lurking) read.
  • Seonid hasn’t posted too much either, though the ‘Ripple Effect’ he’s been stating as a reason to not vote on Bridge boy was quite a while ago according to elbereth, so maybe he’s an elim using that as justification for not joining that lynch. Of course, he doesn’t really need any justification for that. Him not posting much in the early cycles seems to be usual for him. Neutral read.
  • Yitzi2 made an interesting suggestion about the use of the librarian mechanic, though he was wrong about how it worked. I don’t think and elim would intentionally feign ignorance when presenting a plan, and I’d expect him to know how it works if he was an elim, given the large chance for elims to be librarians. I don't agree with his multiple lynch plan, but I can see why he would suggest that as a villager, as in a world where everyone acts completely logical and optimally, it would make sense. Slight village read.
  • Ornstein has posted very little. Neutral/slightly elim (lurking) read.
  • I’m not sure yet about Hero. some of what he’s said made genuine sense, but on the other hand, I think we could have done without the CC lynch last cycle, as they tend to not generate as much discussion. Neutral read.
  • I'm reasonably certain that Lopen is village at this point. Last cycle he admitted to being tripped, despite the chance of this resulting in accusations of him being an elim because of the lack of elim-kill. He also didn't ask the question about whether the elims could even convert and kill on the same turn, which would have cleared him of being the elim that submitted the kill (of course, if you assume that I and Lopen are elim team-mates, this reasoning falls flat as we could have just arranged for me to ask the question for him).
  • Orlok hasn’t posted much, for health reasons. Neutral read, and no desire to lynch him quite yet because of his valid excuse.
  • Elbereth has only just started posing again, and she’s made some good points. However, she then goes after Ornstein, who I think could be evil, but just as soon might not be, as there is little evidence one way or another, and I don't think trying to lynch him him would generate much discussion. Neutral/slightly village read.
  • Jedal has posted twice. Once in RP and once to point out that we lost someone with a Talent. That second post does make me wonder about his alignments a bit, as elims might be more likely to point out the blindingly obvious to appear to be posting? I really don’t know about him. Neutral/very slight elim read.
  • Unodus married Lopen C1, and host posted mostly RP. He did bring up roughly the same point about Jedal as I did, though I'd say this would be a rather easy suspicion to create if you just wanted to appear to contribute. I'd have a slight elim read on him if Lopen hadn't told me in our PM that he got a village read from him based on his PM with him, and as I said before, I trust Lopen somewhat, so I've got a Neutral read on Unodus.
  • I’ve got a slight village read on Queensteph. She appears to be helpful in this game, though she hasn’t posted to much yet. She also abstained from voting C1 because she was busy for a portion of the cycle, and in such a case I’d expect an elim to consider still putting a vote in.
  • Droughtbringer has been doing some planning and putting forwards some ideas that I believe are more helpful to the villager than the elims. He’s also been doing this consistently during C1 and C2, rather than just for C1 to build some trust, so I get a slight village read on him as well.
  • I’m actually somewhat suspicious of Brightness Radiant. In C1 she talked a lot about whether Bridge Boy was evil or not and showed that she was considering voting on him. However, she didn’t vote on him, nor on anyone else in that cycle, which makes me wonder whether the uncertainty was just a front to subtly encourage voting on him, while at the same time being able to dodge any fallout by not voting herself. The comment that elbereth mentioned about her vote on cloudjumper is also worth repeating: Why did she think cloudjumper was more suspicious after going through the thread, if he hadn’t posted anything?
  • I’m also very suspicious of Ecthelion. His justification for voting on Orlok still doesn’t make much sense to me (even after his current explanation in the thread), and his comment about how we should just ignore the librarian role also reminds me far more of an elim librarian than a village worried about people lynching someone just because he’s a librarian. There’s also his desperation to get married, which either means he has an important power (tripper or dancer, which might mean he’s actually village), or really wanted to get one (which might be elim behaviour). That comment and his courtship of BR might also have just been cover for two elims that had decided they needed to share a power anyway, and by arranging the marriage so publicly they would hope to avoid suspicion.

I'm going to vote on Ecthelion for now. We could go after Ornstein instead, but I just don't think that lynching him will generate as much information/discussion as trying to lynch ecthelion will.

Edited by randuir
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33 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Do you mean no logic is better than poor logic? Here's the thing. I don't have any solid suspicions right now. I could vote on one of my suspicions with a little bit of logic, and I would be called illogical and maybe voted on. Or, I could vote on someone providing no logic at all, which you say I should do. This (in my opinion) is why people aren't voting. Anyone who votes without enough evidence to back them up makes themselves a target.

You know what, at this point I'm convinced either Rand or Lopen is evil. I'll shoot.

Well... yeah, actually. A little bit of logic is not the same thing as a little bit of illogic. I could say, for instance, (and truthfully) that I'm suspicious of you for your illogic. That's only a little bit of logic, but it is still logic. Your accusation wasn't. I'm not saying that you shouldn't provide logic if you have it, and a vote with logic is still significantly better. But voting at all is better than no vote, because it informs us of your opinions. 

8 minutes ago, randuir said:

Seonid hasn’t posted too much either, though the ‘Ripple Effect’ he’s been stating as a reason to not vote was quite a while ago according to elbereth, so maybe he’s an elim using that as justification for not joining that lynch. Of course, he doesn’t really need any justification for that. Him not posting much in the early cycles seems to be usual for him. Neutral read.

I'll note that was mainly me poking him about being old. :P It seems entirely reasonable to me that it's still recent within his memory, given previous comments and how he rarely plays games. It's just that outside the games, it was quite a long time ago. 

8 minutes ago, randuir said:

I don't agree with his multiple lynch plan, but I can see why he would suggest that as a villager, as in a world where everyone acts completely logical and optimally, it would make sense. Slight village read.

You just reminded me that someone, and I can't remember who (maybe it was Yitzi?) because apparently it didn't get into the multiquote, mentioned lynching everyone or nearly everyone. Which is why Joe has that mechanic in the first place and has for practically every game he's run in the past... while. So it's a terrible idea, but I'm almost down for it anyway because it'd be hilarious. :P 

10 minutes ago, randuir said:

Elbereth has only just started posing again, and she’s made some good points. However, she then goes after Ornstein, who I think could be evil, but just as soon might not be, as there is little evidence one way or another, and I don't think trying to lynch him him would generate much discussion.

Point, and one I hadn't thought of. But I'm also not actually trying to lynch him. I'm making a point with my vote. It's just that no one else voted for a really long time. >>

Regarding that vote, I'm keeping it on for now - both because I'd like Ornstein to respond and because it'd be more interesting to watch what others do with a completely undecided lynch than a situation in which someone (bar vote manipulation) is already set to die. I will be around today, though, and switch over in the last couple of hours of the turn if no one else does, though, because I don't really view anyone else as more suspicious than Ecth and not lynching this cycle is not really a good idea at all. 

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In a game where suspicions are very hard to justify- yes, I am guilty of focusing on people who are easy to make cases for. shrug

But, since Ecthellion is threatening my wife- I am prepared to reevaluate my opinion  :ph34r:

Edit: Since Jerad hasn't been online in the last 24 hours to make a fair case for himself, and Ecthellion remains undeterred- I would like to reaffirm my vote before I go to sleep, so that vote manipulation should be less effective

Edited by Unodus
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Don't have much time to post today due to real life...I will try to be more active in the coming cycles, but no promises. Sorry.

Sabaneta Smedry - She admitted to being an Elim, and Joe would probably let us lynch her.


In reality, my current reads are

Rand - Village, he has been more than helpful, and gives me a village read. He was able to fool me (completely) in LG30 though. 

Lopen - Village, he has proposed a double (or mult-)lynch a few times, and I don't think that an Elim would be willing to do something that could end so badly, so blatantly.

Steph - Village, Well she is my wife. (we talked a decent amount in PMs and I feel fairly certain that I can trust her now, Plus I don't have a (non RP) talent so I feel like, as an elim, she would have been searching for a talent a lot more before marrying me. (She proposed))

As far as Elim reads...I have a few small ideas, but would have to take quite a bit of time to go back through and write down solidified thoughts, but I don't currently have that time. Also if we want to pull off a double lynch, lynching Sabaneta would be a good one.

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7 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm paying attention to this game, but I don't have a lot of time on my hands and I don't have a lot to say that I think is helpful.  I'll try and make a longer post later.

It always surprised me how fast QF's go. :P  I'm not sure exactly what's going on with all these marriages;  Half of me is thinking that the reason there are so many is that some of the people doing them are Elims, but on the other hand, it would be really helpful for the village to be marrying as well.  Hmm.

I do have some reads on people, but none solid enough that I want to make them public RN.

 

So, I haven't done my analysis yet, but considering how late it is in the Cycle, I need to put my vote down sooner rather than later. I feel like this post by Mage is a delaying tactic. "I have reads, but I'm not gonna say what they are." This is a crucial time to be putting forward opinions on who you think is trustworthy or not. By not revealing your opinions, you're putting the responsibility of the lynch on the rest of the players, when we're in the same position as you if you're a villager. Coupled with your vote on BB on C1 after multiple other players had stated suspicion of him, which could have been you trying to get ahead of a bandwagon(admittedly, one that I jumped on as well, but I know I'm village), I'm putting my vote on you. Mage

3 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

To be honest I'm at a bit of a loss for whom to vote on. My gut says Lopen is evil, but judging by people's responses the last time I voted on someone without perfect evidence, I'll refrain from voting on just a gut read for now.

 

3 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

Do you mean no logic is better than poor logic? Here's the thing. I don't have any solid suspicions right now. I could vote on one of my suspicions with a little bit of logic, and I would be called illogical and maybe voted on. Or, I could vote on someone providing no logic at all, which you say I should do. This (in my opinion) is why people aren't voting. Anyone who votes without enough evidence to back them up makes themselves a target.

You know what, at this point I'm convinced either Rand or Lopen is evil. I'll shoot.

Could you try to explain your reason for suspecting me? Go through my posts, pick out something specific you thought seemed evil? I'm not sure that I suspect you for voting on me, because it seems like you vote on me quite a lot. >> But I would like a chance to defend myself.

Besides that, what made you go from "gut says Lopen is evil" to "I'm convinced rand or Lopen is evil?" Rand says nothing in between those 2 posts, and I don't think I've ever been convinced someone is evil based only on gut.

If no one else joins me in voting on Mage, I'll likely switch my vote over to Ecth, because between Ecth and Ornstein, I think rand makes a good point that Ecth's death will give us more information(if Ecth is evil, we should look a closer at Brightness, and I'd like to think me and rand would be soft-cleared and if Ornstein is evil, only El would be soft-cleared and we'd have no leads).

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I have slight Elim reads on Ytzi, Hero, Seonid, Mage and Ecthelion. In no particular order.

 I just went through the threads again and some things just seemed kinda off. I'll try to post an actual analysis post on them (if not this round then next round, because idk if I can do it before the turn is over. This is just my initial "hmm these people seem kinda shady" and I don't have a lot of reasoning behind my suspicions just yet. I'll go ahead and cast a vote on Seonid i think. (I might take it off after I finish analyzing more so hang on)

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sorry y'all i was gone overnight without much internet!

@Elbereth and @randuir ok so the thing about cloudjumper was that i had seen him lurking the thread and he wasn't active and so i figured maybe he is active...but somewhere else ya know? sorry i didn't explain why i was suspicious before....i figured if he was active in a private doc it was 50/50 that he was either an elim or a knight...i was just hoping it would be the first <_< I should have clarified my suspicions and that's my bad.

Also i didn't vote on bridge boy because i wasn't sure if he was evil or not and i didn't have time to think through everything in that cycle like i usually do cuz i was really tired and also visiting at my sister's house..so ya. I couldn't really decide what to do about bridge boy but i saw that he already had a lot of votes on him ...i didn't really think i should try to stop the lynch cuz i wasn't sure about him...but i didn't really want to vote him if he was innocent. i actually went back and forth on what to do about him, but i couldn't decide in time.

I will hopefully be able to spend more time on this game now and i will try to be clear when it comes to suspicions from now on.

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@BrightnessRadiant Your turn still!

Tell you what, I'll join you in voting on Mage! Magestar

On the issue of Lopen, here's the C1 post that seemed off to me:

  • Says he was going to vote on Mage C1 but says Lopen responded so he wouldn't join the bandwagon
  • Says voting is always good even D1 [I agree]
  • Then proceeds to vote on BB, even though "I don't really have any questions to ask BB that haven't already been asked", which BB had responded to. Keep in mind that the reason he said he wouldn't vote for Mage is "he's responded".

Also note that he just wanted to put his vote on top of someone else's instead of finding a new candidate. In the games I've played with Lopen recently, he doesn't usually do this.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

@BrightnessRadiant Your turn still!

Tell you what, I'll join you in voting on Mage! Magestar

On the issue of Lopen, here's the C1 post that seemed off to me:

  • Says he was going to vote on Mage C1 but says Lopen responded so he wouldn't join the bandwagon
  • Says voting is always good even D1 [I agree]
  • Then proceeds to vote on BB, even though "I don't really have any questions to ask BB that haven't already been asked", which BB had responded to. Keep in mind that the reason he said he wouldn't vote for Mage is "he's responded".

Also note that he just wanted to put his vote on top of someone else's instead of finding a new candidate. In the games I've played with Lopen recently, he doesn't usually do this.

 

I don't see my name in green... 

Thanks for adding some reasoning though. The main point you bring up against me is my voting alongside someone else. If it was a normal Cycle, I'd understand, because I do tend to lead lynches rather than just hop on a bandwagon, but it was C1, which I make a point of adding my vote alongside someone else, because usually everyone else is extremely hesitant to put a second vote down on C1, so it ends up with a lot of players having 1 vote and no useful discussion really happens because no one is actually being threatened with the lynch. If you look back over D1/C1 of past games, I think you'll find that this is what I tend to do, unless I have a suspect that I have a really strong read on, which doesn't happen very often on D1/C1 of games.

I'm pretty sure that BB hadn't responded to all of the questions when I voted on him, and when he finally did respond, I posted again, but decided to leave my vote on him because discussion had been almost solely about him and besides that, he voted on me and I didn't want to be lynched(at the time, I think BB had either 2 or 3 votes, so if I removed my vote, I could die to vote manipulation, which has happened to me multiple times on D1, and it really sucks :P). Plus, with Mage, there was no actually reason to suspect him(unlike BB), so once he responded to your vote on him from D1, there was really no reason to add my vote to him.

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1 minute ago, Ecthelion III said:

LOPEN :P

Thanks. :P

Vote tally:

Mage(2): Lopen, Ecth
Ecth(1): randuir
Ornstein(1): Elbereth
Jedal(1?): Unodus? (I'm not sure if he actually voted on him)

Sabaneta(1): Drought(I'm unsure if lynching the GM is wise, tbh. If this even counts as lynching the GM of course.)

Just noticed the write-up was in! I love it Joe. XD

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9 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

If you look back over D1/C1 of past games, I think you'll find that this is what I tend to do

OBJECTION!

As a matter of fact, I did. And unless I missed a game, the last time you didn't start a lynch on a new player D1 was AG3 back in January.

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20 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

@Elbereth Because, in my opinion, Village Orlok wouldn't defend Bridge Boy (who was seemingly inevitably about to be lynched) without providing an alternate candidate. Eliminator Orlok, on the other hand, knew Bridge Boy's alignment and had something to gain (trust) by defending him.

Wow. Last night was crazy and... well, let me just tell you from the beginning.

--LAST NIGHT--

Where were we? Ah, yes, 321 Fitz-Simmons Lane. I pulled up alongside the curb and steeled myself for The Doorstep. Focus, I told myself, you got this. I looked down at Jemma's note and the little postscript at the bottom: See you soon <3

knock, knock, knock

Jemma heard the knock, and her heart began to race. He's here! She ran to open the door, pausing before opening it, so she didn't look like she had been standing by the door. (maybe idling in the hallway nearby, but she couldn't help it) She opened the door, and saw him standing there. As handsome as she remembered.

At the coffee shop, they got ice cream and found a corner booth. Amelia began to eat her ice cream when she remembered something. "oh! I forgot to get a book! Weren't we supposed to read together? I'm so embarrased!" She looked down, and blushed. "I suppose....I was just so looking forward to seeing you again that I forgot!" Silence. They both began to laugh. Come to think of it...he wasn't caring a book either. She smiled, wiping tears from hear eyes. She was overcome with such a feeling of happiness and affection for this man that she simply blurted out, "Would you like to get married!?". What had she just said?? Did that come out of me?

_____________________________________________________________

Hey please don't lynch Ecth!!!! he doesn't have any powers! why would he marry me if he wanted to gain some...i don't have any either!! @Ecthelion III I'm so sorry this post is so late! I had to eat dinner and for some reason I thought the cycle ended at 8:30!

ninja'd by a lot of people while writing this post! I'm so glad he only has one vote...i thought he had more??? phew ....please don't lynch him though :(

Edited by BrightnessRadiant
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1 minute ago, Ecthelion III said:

OBJECTION!

As a matter of fact, I did. And unless I missed a game, the last time you didn't start a lynch on a new player D1 was AG3 back in January.

Pretty sure that's not where my vote ended though. I'll poke vote fairly often on C1, but if I'm serious about lynching on D1, I have no reservations about bandwagoning(only for D1/C1 though, after that, I try to put together much better reasoning).

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Ok can I just say after actual analysis Ima say Jk and take my vote off Seonid.

I had a theory that like he was working with Stick and they were trying to make people not get any info from who got married and when.

But then I realized Stick is dead and village so that shot down my theory. :P

I hate being on bandwagons because it makes you look bad, but I was suspicious of Mage already which I said before I even saw Lopen's vote on him (I hadn't refreshed my page), and I am leaning towards trusting Lopen.....mostly....so yeah. I don't have time to post any other analysis this turn so it's gonna have to wait. But I WILL get it up next turn! (assuming I'm not killed :ph34r:)

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