Pondering State of Sanderson 2016

[Mason Wheeler]

Only 3 Dragonsteels?

I seem to recall him saying that Dragonsteel was intended to be "a big epic" on par with Stormlight.

[BlackYeti]

3 hours ago, Mason Wheeler said:

Only 3 Dragonsteels?

I seem to recall him saying that Dragonsteel was intended to be "a big epic" on par with Stormlight.

I believe it was originally intended to be 7 books, but Brandon's since revised it down to a trilogy.

Also @Pagerunner, that was a truly excellent extrapolation save for one thing, did you forget about Nightblood?

Edit: nope it was there, I'm apparently blind

Edited December 21, 2016 by BlackYeti

[Ammanas]

Maybe someone here can answer my questions. Did Brandon envision Stormlight Archive to be 10 massive doorstopers from the beginning? Did writing the WoT series inspire him to change his original plans and make each one longer?

I can't remember, but I think he said the first one would be the biggest and the rest would be much shorter, but I can't remember where I read this...this is not a complaint; I'm just curious.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Ammanas

[Pagerunner]

5 hours ago, Mason Wheeler said:

Only 3 Dragonsteels?

I seem to recall him saying that Dragonsteel was intended to be "a big epic" on par with Stormlight.

It's as important as Stormlight, and he won't write it concurrent, but that's the same deal for the other two Mistborn trilogies. The original plan was a 5-book main sequence with a 2-book prequel, the Liar of Partinel duology. He's cut down his plans to 3 books, which may involve cutting the Liar duology entirely and heading straight into the main series.

1 hour ago, Ammanas said:

Maybe someone here can answer my questions. Did Brandon envision Stormlight Archive to be 10 massive doorstopers from the beginning? Did writing the WoT series inspire him to change his original plans and make each one longer?

I can't remember, but I think he said the first one would be the biggest and the rest would be much shorter, but I can't remember where I read this...this is not a complaint; I'm just curious.

They were all supposed to be big, but not this big. He's said he wants every book to be shorter than the previous ones, and so far each has been longer. He just has too much fun while writing them.

[Weltall]

I for one will be happy to donate my Breath to help ensure that he maintains his youthful energy for however long it takes. Now someone just has to make BioChroma a real thing...

[king of nowhere]

Quote

I’m glad we’re not in the alternate, dystopian Sanderson timeline where I have a goatee and have to spend my life selling people insurance.

Alternate Brandon:"and if you buy the insurance against your brother being gang-pressed and killed in battle, we'll offer for free an insurance that will cover your slave debt in case you are made a slave and forced to run against archers while carrying a bridge"

Customer (young man around 20, student of medicine but secretly longing to join the army):"those seem oddly specific occurrences. Why would I want any of those?"

Alternate Brandon:"Huh... I had a feeling of what could have happened in an alternate universe"

[Toaster Retribution]

Is it btw confirmed wether Dark One will be Cosmere or not? I have heard different things from different sources.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Chull #445

[Pagerunner]

4 hours ago, Chull #445 said:

Is it btw confirmed wether Dark One will be Cosmere or not? I have heard different things from different sources.

Yeah, Brandon actually just spoke about it today. Dark One is cosmere.

[thegatorgirl00]

Now that we have multiple books in the Reckoners universe, will Sanderson give us an official title for it? 

[Who Sharded?]

On 12/20/2016 at 3:23 PM, Pagerunner said:

I would say this is a rather conservative estimate; as Brandon continues to improve as a writer, he may very well be able to cut down the time it takes to get a Stormlight book out, or somehow manage to keep himself from writing each one longer than the last.

I hate to be negative, but I fear the opposite.  Young writers just have more energy and are able to write more quickly (at least this is Jim Butcher's reason for slowing down).  And just looking at trends, the Cosmere novels that were always part of the plan are releasing more slowly.  And Stormlight books are getting longer than Brandon anticipated.  I don't see any reason for these trends to reverse...I've been a GRRM fan for too long to get optimistic about these things.

[Ammanas]

Agree with the above comment. Also the more popular a author is the more time the publishers expect for him to be on tour and do public appearances. I think that Brandons work output will decline. I still think, at the very least, we will receive one book a year from him from some series. This is not a complaint (Brandon has been very good to his fans) but as Logan 9 fingers would say, "You have to be realistic about these things."

Edited December 28, 2016 by Ammanas

[Argent]

Eh, it's debatable what "realistic" is. GRRM, even at his best, was slower than Brandon (at his worst). I think there is evidence for either case, but neither is objectively more likely at the moment - it all depends on how special you consider Brandon to be. 

[king of nowhere]

brandon already slowed down compared to a few years ago. he goes to tours often, he has a family... of course he will write less. also, when he was writing the first books, he could do pretty much anything; now he has to triple-check throug millions of words for continuity. that also takes time. So, the real question is not whether brandon will slow down, but how much.

[Fedcomic]

On 12/20/2016 at 9:52 AM, StormingTexan said:

I too am glad to see a more realistic timeline for SA. It does make me wonder though how he will get everything done. If (and that's a big if) he can continue to release a SA novel very 3 years that puts book 10 around 2038. I'm assuming there will be a pretty decent break between SA 5 and SA 6 presumable to write Mistborn Era 3 so book 10 is probably more like 2040-2042. Then Dragonsteel and then Mistborn Era 4? Interestingly not a lot of info on Mistborn Era 3 and 4 just that Mistborn is on Hiatus after next Wax and Wayne book. That's not including all the other side projects mixed in. I'm just wondering if the entire Cosmere scope is a little too ambitious. Hopefully both I and Brandon live to be 100 to see it all! 

Brandon doesn't have to live to be 100.  He should be done with the Cosmere books we know about so far by about 60 or 65, and lots of authors are actively pumping out new stories into their 70s and 80s.  

On 12/20/2016 at 3:23 PM, Pagerunner said:

So, here's when I expect we'll finally finish up the cosmere sequence: between 2046 and 2052.

. . .

EDIT: Oh, by the way, the numbers to the left of the timeline is Brandon's age. Very doable.

Concur.

[StormingTexan]

 

1 hour ago, Fedcomic said:

Brandon doesn't have to live to be 100.  He should be done with the Cosmere books we know about so far by about 60 or 65

Brandon is 41 right now so if you just take the 7 remaining Stormlight books assuming he keeps the pace of a book every 3 years he is 63 before Stormlight is finished (assuming we start the clock when it is actually published he will be closer to 42 then) Now some of the other books will be written in between Stormlight we know this but we would still have 3 each of Dragonsteel and Mistborn Era 4 books after Stromlight. I think at best we can expect one of these books every 2 years which puts completion 2050 and Brandon around 75. I think Pagerunner's estimate is close but pretty optimistic to think he will be able to publish the last 6 books in 6 years. I know that was how Elantris, Mistborn E1, Warbreaker and WoK were produced but Brandon has mentioned this pace was misleading a lot of this was already written just published a year apart. That would be really quick now and this will be when he is a lot more advanced in years not to mention I would think wrapping up your life's work will be a little slower process than the preceding work. So best case I'd think around 2050 (75) worst cast 2055 (80). I do agree there is no reason he cannot keep writing into his 70s and even 80s. I was obviously exaggerating when I said we have to live to 100. It was meant to be tongue and cheek. 

Edited January 9, 2017 by StormingTexan

[Fedcomic]

On 12/28/2016 at 9:10 AM, Who Sharded? said:

I hate to be negative, but I fear the opposite.  Young writers just have more energy and are able to write more quickly (at least this is Jim Butcher's reason for slowing down).  And just looking at trends, the Cosmere novels that were always part of the plan are releasing more slowly.  And Stormlight books are getting longer than Brandon anticipated.  I don't see any reason for these trends to reverse...I've been a GRRM fan for too long to get optimistic about these things.

When I look at the trends, I don't see any reason for pessimism.  True, there's more time between the Stormlight books than Brandon's first estimates (18 months).  But if we do get Oathbreaker this year, then that's three years from WoR, which was three years from WoK.  Obviously I'd love to have them come out quicker, but we certainly can't say that the trend is toward increased time between books.  

And there are lots of older writers who are either maintaining their output or speeding up.  (For example: Steven King, James Patterson, Dean Wesley Smith, Kevin J. Anderson, etc.)  GRRM isn't slowing down because he's getting old-- he's always been slow.  In the first half of his career (1972-1995) he published 6 novels (including a children's book and a novel complied from previously published short stories).  In the second half of his career (1996-now), he's published 5 novels (all of which are lengthy).  That's steady state.  That's continuum.  

On 12/28/2016 at 10:28 AM, Ammanas said:

Agree with the above comment. Also the more popular a author is the more time the publishers expect for him to be on tour and do public appearances. I think that Brandons work output will decline. I still think, at the very least, we will receive one book a year from him from some series. This is not a complaint (Brandon has been very good to his fans) but as Logan 9 fingers would say, "You have to be realistic about these things."

One book a year is all you expect?  I've been tracking his output, and the last year we didn't get multiple full-length novels from Brandon was 2012, when we got a short story and two novellas.  I think two or three books a year is exceedingly realistic.  

On 12/29/2016 at 7:45 PM, king of nowhere said:

brandon already slowed down compared to a few years ago. he goes to tours often, he has a family... of course he will write less. also, when he was writing the first books, he could do pretty much anything; now he has to triple-check throug millions of words for continuity. that also takes time. So, the real question is not whether brandon will slow down, but how much.

I'll be first to admit that my methodology is imperfect, but the data I have put together do not agree at all with this assessment.  His average output is about 1,150 new pages published per year.  Getting Oathbreaker and Snapshot out in 2017 would likely put him right about at that number.  (And we may get a surprise like Mistborn Secret History). This past year, 2016, he was well over his average with almost 1,600 new pages in print.  This doesn't look like slowing down to me. 

Further, I don't know exactly what is meant by "a few years ago," but 2011 and 2012 were the two least productive years of his twelve-year career.  So if anything, it looks like he is speeding up compared to a few years ago.   

But of course a lot of the apparent ups and downs in his productivity are illusory. When he writes a really big book, it takes longer to go through the editing and publishing process. In other words, big books are lumpy, which doesn't make for smooth output (in terms of publication) even if the input (Brandon's actual writing) is very consistent.  You can see this best by comparing 2011 and 2012 to 2013 and 2014.  There's a dip down while he is writing both MoL and WoR and then a big surge afterward when they both come out.  But we know that he was writing steadily that whole time.  Like he is now-- despite the demands of family, publicity, etc.

Bottom line: Buck up, campers!  All available evidence points to Old Faithful continuing to spout out reliably for the foreseeable future. 

[king of nowhere]

10 minutes ago, Fedcomic said:

I'll be first to admit that my methodology is imperfect, but the data I have put together do not agree at all with this assessment.  His average output is about 1,150 new pages published per year.  Getting Oathbreaker and Snapshot out in 2017 would likely put him right about at that number.  (And we may get a surprise like Mistborn Secret History). This past year, 2016, he was well over his average with almost 1,600 new pages in print.  This doesn't look like slowing down to me. 

Further, I don't know exactly what is meant by "a few years ago," but 2011 and 2012 were the two least productive years of his twelve-year career.  So if anything, it looks like he is speeding up compared to a few years ago.   

But of course a lot of the apparent ups and downs in his productivity are illusory. When he writes a really big book, it takes longer to go through the editing and publishing process. In other words, big books are lumpy, which doesn't make for smooth output (in terms of publication) even if the input (Brandon's actual writing) is very consistent.  You can see this best by comparing 2011 and 2012 to 2013 and 2014.  There's a dip down while he is writing both MoL and WoR and then a big surge afterward when they both come out.  But we know that he was writing steadily that whole time.  Like he is now-- despite the demands of family, publicity, etc.

Bottom line: Buck up, campers!  All available evidence points to Old Faithful continuing to spout out reliably for the foreseeable future. 

You know what, good job on that. While the data presented like that is by no means perfect because it only tracks when a book gets published, not when it is written, over long times it get evened out.

Well, I guess he's been making less big books and more smaller books in the last couple years, and this gave the impression that he was writing less - because one 900 page book feels bigger than three 300 pages books. Also seeing him going to conventions and stuff and the progress bar remaining still during that time contributes to the impression. Now, writing one 900 page also takes longer than the three smaller books, so maybe he is actually slowing down a little, but if so, the effect is small. Either way, I am happy to be disproven.

[Fedcomic]

20 hours ago, king of nowhere said:

Either way, I am happy to be disproven.

Tracking this stuff is just my way of silencing that part of my brain that is screaming for more Cosmere. Easier to be patient when I can tell myself that based on past trends there is plenty of good stuff on the way.  But who knows, right?  Life is full of surprises.  I'm just glad that as a Brandon fan I get more happy surprises ("Oops, I accidentally wrote another book!") than crappy surprises ("Oops!  Forgot to write anything this year!").  

Edited January 10, 2017 by Fedcomic

[Angsos]

What's G.R.R.M.'s childrens book, a sequel to Lord of the Flies

[Fedcomic]

It's called The Ice Dragon, and it was first published in 1980.  Haven't read it, but I'm kind of curious. 

 

[maxal]

On 1/9/2017 at 0:39 PM, king of nowhere said:

Well, I guess he's been making less big books and more smaller books in the last couple years, and this gave the impression that he was writing less - because one 900 page book feels bigger than three 300 pages books. Also seeing him going to conventions and stuff and the progress bar remaining still during that time contributes to the impression. Now, writing one 900 page also takes longer than the three smaller books, so maybe he is actually slowing down a little, but if so, the effect is small. Either way, I am happy to be disproven.

I think part of the problem might be Brandon has a very diverse readership and among this readership, there are those who are mainly interested in SA. Being a SA fan more than a Cosmere fan, I do not get overly excited by the release of additional Mistborn books or other short novels, but they do contribute to his outputs. In other words, Brandon's output may be up there, in terms of word count, but there are those who, perhaps selfishly, wished he had used those "words" onto Oathbringer in order to get it out sooner. Other readers are just happy to see books being released in a steady manner, any book.

However, seeing the progress bar remaining still for almost half of last year when it was supposed to be the highest priority project did create negative feelings into a few fans. It is dangerous to be as open as Brandon is: on one side it is amazing to see his entire process, but on the other side it allows us to point at him and say: "Why aren't you working on it when you said you would?". It is a double-edged knife.

For my part, I wish the 4-6 months he spent on Arcanum Unbounded had been used on SA3 instead in order to get an early summer release as opposed to a late fall one. I however understand this is an incredibly unpopular opinion and it might not have fit into Brandon's writing process, I cannot say, but from my very personal reader's perspective, this is how I would have preferred it.

[TwiLyghtSansSparkles]

2 hours ago, maxal said:

I think part of the problem might be Brandon has a very diverse readership and among this readership, there are those who are mainly interested in SA. Being a SA fan more than a Cosmere fan, I do not get overly excited by the release of additional Mistborn books or other short novels, but they do contribute to his outputs. In other words, Brandon's output may be up there, in terms of word count, but there are those who, perhaps selfishly, wished he had used those "words" onto Oathbringer in order to get it out sooner. Other readers are just happy to see books being released in a steady manner, any book.

However, seeing the progress bar remaining still for almost half of last year when it was supposed to be the highest priority project did create negative feelings into a few fans. It is dangerous to be as open as Brandon is: on one side it is amazing to see his entire process, but on the other side it allows us to point at him and say: "Why aren't you working on it when you said you would?". It is a double-edged knife.

For my part, I wish the 4-6 months he spent on Arcanum Unbounded had been used on SA3 instead in order to get an early summer release as opposed to a late fall one. I however understand this is an incredibly unpopular opinion and it might not have fit into Brandon's writing process, I cannot say, but from my very personal reader's perspective, this is how I would have preferred it.

Oh, I know exactly how you feel there. Except in my case, I wish he'd spend less time on Stormlight and more time completing a bound volume of Allomancer Jak's adventures. AU spoilers follow. 

Spoiler

From the first page, I was hooked. Brandon managed to capture the cheesy, pulpy nature of the turn-of-the-last-century newspaper stories following larger-than-life adventurers perfectly, but it was Handerwym's sarcastic footnotes that elevated the story from "fun short story set in the Mistborn universe" to "comedy gold." It's a rare treat to get a story that's both a compelling fantasy and laugh-out-loud, snort-in-the-breakroom-at-work hilarious, and that's what "Pits of Eltania" was. 

I've been a Stormlight fan for a while now. I love Shallan, and Adolin, and Jasnah, and Kaladin and Dalinar and all the rest. Roshar is a fictional world that I love to live in. I've waited on pins and needles for the next installment to see how everything turns out for Adolin, and what the end of WoR means for the Shadolin ship. 

But after meeting Allomancer Jak and the sarcastically loyal Handerwym, I've realized that Shallan and Adolin can wait. Give me an annotated volume of Allomancer Jak's adventures instead.

 

[maxal]

1 hour ago, TwiLyghtSansSparkles said:

Oh, I know exactly how you feel there. Except in my case, I wish he'd spend less time on Stormlight and more time completing a bound volume of Allomancer Jak's adventures. AU spoilers follow. 

  Hide contents

From the first page, I was hooked. Brandon managed to capture the cheesy, pulpy nature of the turn-of-the-last-century newspaper stories following larger-than-life adventurers perfectly, but it was Handerwym's sarcastic footnotes that elevated the story from "fun short story set in the Mistborn universe" to "comedy gold." It's a rare treat to get a story that's both a compelling fantasy and laugh-out-loud, snort-in-the-breakroom-at-work hilarious, and that's what "Pits of Eltania" was. 

I've been a Stormlight fan for a while now. I love Shallan, and Adolin, and Jasnah, and Kaladin and Dalinar and all the rest. Roshar is a fictional world that I love to live in. I've waited on pins and needles for the next installment to see how everything turns out for Adolin, and what the end of WoR means for the Shadolin ship. 

But after meeting Allomancer Jak and the sarcastically loyal Handerwym, I've realized that Shallan and Adolin can wait. Give me an annotated volume of Allomancer Jak's adventures instead.

 

I read your plea for it in the Pet Peeves topic. Sucks huh to be hooked onto something while being faced with the fact it just isn't going to get itself written faster because WE want it to? And don't get me started on he "what is going to happen to Adolin" topic: I have had nightmares about that book. There was everything in it, it was brilliant except for one tiny detail: it had no Adolin. Nothing. Nada. Not one POV. One time, someone said his name and this was it  Wait, I waited four years to read the "what happens to Adolin now" story arc and it isn't in the book? Tragedy 

I guess we are doomed to see our favorite author endlessly divide his attentions in between our favorite series. The more I think of it, the more I feel the only realistic solution would be to create a Brandon Sanderson clone: one to work solely on SA as these are long books to write and one working on Mistborn. I guess we should add a third one for all other work and I am expecting others to plea for a fourth one to work on Dragonsteel.

This seems the best possible solution to satisfy all of our selfish pesky reader's needs 

[StormingTexan]

I completely understand your sentiments Maxal. I am one of the ones that love the fact he has several series going at one time but I know it drives others crazy. Brandon has said numerous times he writes best when he can switch back and forth. Heck it may even take longer to get SA books if he abandoned what he has found to work best for him. I love Brandon's transparency personally. It is one of the things that makes me feel like Brandon really cares about his fans. It is frustrating for me though to never see a Nightblood status bar 

[WeiryWriter]

4 hours ago, maxal said:

For my part, I wish the 4-6 months he spent on Arcanum Unbounded had been used on SA3 instead in order to get an early summer release as opposed to a late fall one. I however understand this is an incredibly unpopular opinion and it might not have fit into Brandon's writing process, I cannot say, but from my very personal reader's perspective, this is how I would have preferred it.

Where exactly are you getting the "4-6 months" number?