Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

11 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I'm actually thinking I might not vote at all this cycle. . . Normally I'm all for a Day 1 lynch, but if there's only one eliminator right now (Hoid) Then, I don't know how much information we can really get from a lynch vs actions. I hate to bring up this old debate again, but, should we have a day 1 lynch?

Well, I would say that I'd be fine with not having a lynch this Turn, since, as you say, there's probably not many eliminators(possibly only Hoid, but if there's any more than just him, I'd guess 1 or maybe 2), but something caught my attention that could warrant a lynch I think(and if I'm right then there's not just Hoid).

When Joe posted his initial list of where everyone was, he switched Elodin and Conquestor(putting Elodin on Threnody and Conq as "Unknown"), which you can see by his edit and my post directly after the list. Anyways, earlier, Conq had posted in the thread that only him and Sart were on Threnody. That was all that was known when Joe posted his list. Then, just a little while after Joe posted his list, Sart comes on and says that Elodin actually is on Threnody. So, the point I'm trying to make here is that I think it's possible Joe made a slip and put Elodin on Threnody in his list at first because he already knew he was there. And the only way he could know he was there was if he was a 17th Sharder and one of his teammates was on Threnody and told him who was there. Either that, or Joe just coincidentally switched Conquestor for someone who was also on the same planet. But that seems like a pretty big coincidence to me, so I'll be voting on Joe. Stick.

[A Joe in the Bush]

It was a complete coincidence. I found it suspicious myself when it first came to light. But, it was just a coincidence.

Edited December 22, 2016 by A Joe in the Bush
spelling

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

8 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

It was a complete coincidence. I found it suspicious myself when it first case to light. But, it was just a coincidence.

I think I'd be more willing to believe you had you made some sort of comment about it once Sart revealed Elodin was on Threnody. Because it looks like you were trying to sweep it under the rug by staying silent about it until I point it out(which isn't necessarily an eliminator only thing to do, but it doesn't help me trust you any).

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I think I'd be more willing to believe you had you made some sort of comment about it once Sart revealed Elodin was on Threnody. Because it looks like you were trying to sweep it under the rug by staying silent about it until I point it out(which isn't necessarily an eliminator only thing to do, but it doesn't help me trust you any).

I didn't think it was that important. I just kind of shrugged and wrote it off as a coincidence. There's nothing I can say to defend it other than that. If that's the only reason you have to lynch me, That'll suck for me, but, there's nothing else I can say. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I didn't think it was that important. I just kind of shrugged and wrote it off as a coincidence. There's nothing I can say to defend it other than that. If that's the only reason you have to lynch me, That'll suck for me, but, there's nothing else I can say. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah...I don't like Day 1 lynches. >.< It's a tough call too, but I'll leave my vote there for now.

[Stick. she/her]

@A Joe in the Bush You wrote 'First of the Sun' instead of Kasimir in the FotS list :-P

Oh, almost forgot:    DroughtBringer

[manukos he/him]

Hmmmm first of all perhaps it would be wise to have the rules in a different tab on my iPad mystical board of wisdom throughout the game 

2) who do you think are the most suspicious ones so that they can be checked when night comes 

3) I think that the best strategy is start exonerate players so that the shard can pass there shard without fear 

4) as I mentioned earlier I believe that the game will become exponentially harder for town as time passes, due to the conventions

5)is it that bad an idea to reveal yourself if you have a non threatening role

6) I would like to be as active as joe but between relatives, studying and meeting with old friend I don't have all that much times. Plus the time zone thing is kinda annoying, 

 

p.s. About the vote: I was just Joeking .... not my best pun 

[Droughtbringer]

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I'm actually thinking I might not vote at all this cycle. . . Normally I'm all for a Day 1 lynch, but if there's only one eliminator right now (Hoid) Then, I don't know how much information we can really get from a lynch vs actions. I hate to bring up this old debate again, but, should we have a day 1 lynch?

I vote that we should not have a day 1 lynch, there are just too many things that we do not know yet...plus we could just lynch a shard and end up helping the elimonators.

[Kasimir he/him]

51 minutes ago, DroughtBringer said:

I vote that we should not have a day 1 lynch, there are just too many things that we do not know yet...plus we could just lynch a shard and end up helping the elimonators.

Emphases mine. Could mean two things: (1) lynching a Shard helps the Eliminators, or (2) we could end up both lynching a Shard and helping the Eliminators.

Both claims are not strictly speaking correct. (1) assets a causal connection that isn't necessarily the case. It's not immediately clear that lynching a Shard auto-helps the Eliminators, except in a trivial sense, i.e. the sense in which we would be lynching a member of Team Village (I think? The Factions are really confusing me...) unless it just so happens that Autonomy / Survival / Odium are up for the lynch. Don't forget that according to the rules, Vessels can pass their Shards prior to a lynch, meaning that if a Shard is up for the lynch, we're not going to lose the Shard itself. Not to mention that even if they don't and get lynched, Shards will then pass to a random player. One might even argue it doesn't help Hoid much unless the Shard accidentally goes to him, because Hoid starts knowing who all the Shards are. Having the Shard pass to someone else he doesn't know is really not the most damaging possibility in play.

I think (2) is a little more careful: it's still not clear that lynching a Shard is a net minus (or at least one distinct from losing any Villager to a mislynch in a conversion game.) Although I don't like to take risks, and we can, at least for now, feel reasonably certain that the Shards are not on Team Hoid, I notice some earlier people have commented that it may be best for Shards to change hands as quickly as possible, so as not to provide Team Hoid with neat targets. I generally think that sounds like a sensible idea. And if that's a plan we do go with, then it's not clear that lynching a Shard qua Shard is any more problematic that lynching a Villager, since the whole point is to shift Shards around anyway.

I've not played a game like this before, so I'm not clear about where the idea that Team Hoid starts with just Hoid and possibly one or two flunkies comes from. Is it because Team Hoid begins with conversions? Either way, I'm just going to mark that as something I have no bloody idea about (sigh), but if it's just Hoid right now, then I don't think a Day 1 lynch is going to be a good idea - with reservations. We still want to get a lot of discussion out (sigh, yes, I know :/ ) and I'm still a big fan of the notion that people aren't really incentivised to say much until there's that psychological pressure of being in the hot seat, having their name lit up in red, etcetera. Why is primarily because I think having discussion would form a good baseline for comparison, especially when the conversions begin.

So tldr; I don't really see why lynching a Shard auto-helps the Eliminators, as opposed to if we lynched a Villager. I think that if there's anything bad about it, it's the badness associated with lynching anyone who isn't Team Hoid, period, and Shard-passing, with the caveat that as per the original plans, the Shards get a lot more control over this.

@Lopen: Skaa Bro, your point is an interesting one. But I find myself a bit uneasy with the whole "Let's not lynch D1, the odds of hitting Hoid are really low" and "Joe, something's weird about you" conjunction. The two separate points seem to be somewhat in tension, there.

[Young Bard he/him]

I might join in on a lynch of Joe later, because I do have a bit of a suspicious trust read on him, but I'm not willing to make that call on Day 1 - I'd rather lynch an inactive (who hasn't provided an excuse, that is.) I don't know how many of those there are, but Assassin in Burgundy is first on the list that hasn't posted, nor have they posted an excuse that I saw, so I'm voting for them.

By the way, I'm not sure I agree with all of your instructions, Joe. I'd like to respond post by post, but I think you're pushing for action and inaction on certain roles in the wrong places. Honour - I think you should select a Champion soon, for one thing. You don't necessarily have to claim to them yet, but you should collaborate with them at the very least. What else was there... Joe - you do realise the village needs to kill Odium, his Champ, Autonomy, and his converts in order to win as well, right? Also, Preservation can't self invest anymore  Seonid changed that after what happened last time... I'm still skeptical of the Ruin blowing up Threnody plan, because I don't think it serves a purpose, particularly since your main argument to blow up a planet is dependent on the Shard taking Ruin at some point in the future, which is far from certain, and the village is shooting itself in the foot in the meantime. Mistborns and Voidbringers should probably wait to kill, seeing as they only have two charges and they'll have more accurate reads later. Also, a lot of your advice (e.g. Forgers, Feruchemists) is tailored towards PM stuff, which... doesn't work when you only have the World PM's or Devotions whims.

Honestly, I thought we'd probably have similar views on how to play roles, but after that, I'm suddenly not so sure. I'll probably have to get my own guide up now... (Probably this Night Cycle or the next Day Cycle - I won't have time before the end of Day 1.) 

47 minutes ago, harambe said:

Hmmmm first of all perhaps it would be wise to have the rules in a different tab on my iPad mystical board of wisdom throughout the game 

2) who do you think are the most suspicious ones so that they can be checked when night comes 

3) I think that the best strategy is start exonerate players so that the shard can pass there shard without fear 

4) as I mentioned earlier I believe that the game will become exponentially harder for town as time passes, due to the conventions

5)is it that bad an idea to reveal yourself if you have a non threatening role

6) I would like to be as active as joe but between relatives, studying and meeting with old friend I don't have all that much times. Plus the time zone thing is kinda annoying, 

 

p.s. About the vote: I was just Joeking .... not my best pun 

3 - Agreed, but unfortunately, that's usually quite difficult to do conclusively. It's also less conclusive this game, because exonerated players are still at risk of conversion.

5 - Define 'non-threatening'? Everything, used properly, can be threatening to the Eliminators - that's why they exist. Also, even if you have a regular role, it narrows down those who don't, which is good for the Eliminator team. That's why people don't reveal.

---

I promised RP this game, so I'll try and slip something in once every turn, even if it's just a couple lines. Unfortunately, I didn't realize the enormity of the timescale, so my original prompt won't suffice anymore. Serol is now a historian, tracing the steps of Vathir and others in the first Shardic War (is that the official title? No idea.) Character wise, he's a bit of a recluse, but with the return of Hoid, everyone's suddenly highly interested in his work, so feel free to interrupt him if you want awkward conversations to occur. 

Hoid has returned...

Serol dashed up the stairs, furiously panting. The first Shardic War had been a dark time, according to all reports. People who wanted to restore Adonalsium publicly roamed the streets, spreading chaos and confusion, as treachery reigned, and the Shards turned in on each other, slowly devouring themselves. It was one of the darkest periods in the history of the Cosmere.

And, God help them, it was about to happen again.

Maybe not... For all we know, this could be a prank. A practical joke.

But Serol didn't think so. And if he was right - if the Cosmere was about to be plunged into a second Shardic War...

No-one wanted to live through that.

So Serol did the only reasonable thing he could.

He went to the library.

[Magestar he/him]

54 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

What else was there... Joe - you do realise the village needs to kill Odium, his Champ, Autonomy, and his converts in order to win as well, right?

I'm reasonably certain this is inaccurate.  Depending on what you mean by 'the village'.  The 'Shardic Coalition', which is vilage-colored in the rules, only needs to kill everyone in the 17th shard.  And then they've won.  I don't know if that ends the game, though.  And really, Odium's win con isn't exclusive to any other win con.  It's just really darn annoying to everyone he thinks might be a shard.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I'm reasonably certain this is inaccurate.  Depending on what you mean by 'the village'.  The 'Shardic Coalition', which is vilage-colored in the rules, only needs to kill everyone in the 17th shard.  And then they've won.  I don't know if that ends the game, though.  And really, Odium's win con isn't exclusive to any other win con.  It's just really darn annoying to everyone he thinks might be a shard.

Probably with the exception of Survival, since Odium wants to shatter all the things Shards. Sucks to be you, Survival D:

If "darn annoying" extends to finding yourself dead because Odium got trigger-happy and thought you were a Shard, yeah Though I don't see Odium's win con as being necessarily exclusive to ours, but a trigger-happy Odium attacking everyone they think is a Shard could be pretty costly for us, since it's an überkill, minimally speaking. I dunno. Will probably go and see how the past games played out for some idea of this instead of complaining about being lost repeatedly, like a fool  

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

 

@Lopen: Skaa Bro, your point is an interesting one. But I find myself a bit uneasy with the whole "Let's not lynch D1, the odds of hitting Hoid are really low" and "Joe, something's weird about you" conjunction. The two separate points seem to be somewhat in tension, there.

Errr, right. Don't have a lot of time, but I'll explain a bit more I suppose. On one hand, the 17th Shard only has conversions opposed to kills, so I'm assuming they're gonna have 2 to 4 conversions, and since there's 26 players to begin with, a regular eliminator team would be around 5 players. However, conversions can be a lot more powerful than having started with 5 players by GM distribution, since they can choose who they want when they want. Anyways, my thought process is that it's a bit risky for the 17th Shard to only start with one player in case something goes wrong early and then the 17th Shard is destroyed in like, 1 Cycle, hence me putting forward that I think it's possible Hoid started with 1 or 2 flunkies(and since Hoid is the center of the 17th Shard team, he's obviously gonna be around already). So if there's only 1 or 2 17th Shard members right now, then it's pretty unlikely either of them would be any sort of focus on a Day 1 lynch, so not only is it unlikely we'd lynch an eliminator, it's unlikely it will be useful for discussion later on. However, I thought Joe's mix-up of who was on Threnody could point to him being a 17th Shard member and if he is, then we'd know that another one of them is on Threnody(one of Elodin, Sart, or Conquestor) and we'd gain a significant advantage over the 17th Shard right from the start.

I feel like that's kind of jumbled and not very coherent. >.> But it's all I can do for now. Last post on my laptop, have to use mobile for the next week. 

[AliasSheep]

Putting my vote back on Joe again.  Your argument for us not having a lynch doesn't really make a lot of sense.  Sure, there could be very few people on the 17th Shard, but we don't know that.  And, regardless of how many there are, they still get a convert next cycle whether we lynch or not.  Which means we need to do a lynch so we don't get behind the curve.  And putting the 17th Shard aside, we still need to find and get rid of maybe Odium if not Autonomy as well.  That's like 3 or 4 "eliminators", which means the lynch is totally worth it.  And then you also have the fact that the lynch will help us evaluate our information, which it always does. 

Second, something several people in LG22 brought up when @Sart tried to start discussion about whether or not we should have a lynch - that discussion has been done a thousand times and it's generally accepted that it's a good idea to have a day 1 lynch; in fact, it's like, statistically proven to be better (give me a bit for me to find the actual citation for this - if I don't find it, you can discard this specific point, but my others still stand).  In addition, it was mentioned that bringing up this specific discussion is a great way off putting off actual discussion about who we should lynch, which, as aforeshown, is incredibly important.  As it happens Sart was an eliminator and putting off discussion was exactly what he was doing.  

In fact, this whole discussion in LG22 covers some of my points wonderfully.

In summary, I don't think anything in this game reduces the importance of the day one lynch.  The hypothetical smallness of the 17th Shard team doesn't really change that, in fact, if we do actually manage to lynch an important member of the team, that would be even better for us.

A more interesting and fruitful discussion is what the village should do about Odium and Autonomy.  I actually disagree with myself earlier on about finding and getting rid of Odium - their win condition is definitely more in line with the village's win condition than the Shard's win condition, and if necessary I would be willing to cooperate with them.  I'm not, however, too sure about Autonomy.  Autonomy's win condition would require some tricky timing to get working, unless of course they did something along the lines of tagging everyone but the last member of the 17th Shard, at which point we kill them and both the Village and Autonomy win.  It's definitely possible for all three to win, the question is, is it worth trying?

Edited December 22, 2016 by AliasSheep
wording

[manukos he/him]

Fine I'll throw some more  RP as well 

---

So far no one had questioned him being there, well he hadn't expected them to. He had spent hours trying to get the face and makeup just right and it would be a same if it was all in vain . Plus what kind of a con-man gets caught because of sticking out? A scarecrow one no, no, a tree one ... maybe that one needed a little more work. His thoughts drifted towards the poor herdazian fool who's place he'd taken . He hoped that the fall to the pure lake didn't hurt him .... too much. Well what can you do , some win and some lose. The punisher seemed like a great alias for a boastful herazian it only annoyed Him that no one would get the brilliance of the PUN . 

Time to find a victim . They were a strange lot most of them were reclusive and the rest seemed quite normal ,just sitting around talking and eating perfect targets . There were some oddities, a guy who talked to himself , an other one had a blue translucent...thing prancing around his head and finally there was him. An old guy with keen eyes and a grin in his face. He was talking and gesturing wildly . The punisher sat too far away to hear what he said but from his point of view it was obvious how uncomfortable the people around him felt , he'd better stay away from him.

-INCIDENT-

By the time the lights came back he had already swiped two wallets and a purch. The old man probably had one too many drinks , seems like he'd misjudged him . Speaking of the devil , where was he ?  And then he heard a scream  

ten muinites later he concluded that the senile old man was actually hoid , THE HOID . Hadn't he died eons ago , were all the stories about him true? He'd heard that once a planet was destroyed by him , he always thought of these stories as nothing more than fairytales.  A man brushed past him and entered the empty library -an other victim perhaps - . This was no time for that he had to decide what to do, on one hand with al the confusion around him he could swipe some more things and make an escape unseen  but on the other hand if the stories were true , the Hoid threatened to destroy the world as he knew it . And he liked his world ,lots of people to scam ,lots of things to steal. Plus if he could get in coalition's good side perhaps they could grant him free access to any world , without having to pay that enormous world hopping fee every time he had to get away from a planet.

so stay it was .now,what to do .... what to do .... he should first get as much information about the people here and then maybe investigate tha power shortage ..... the library wasn't bad idea either . At the end he decided to lay low ,mingle and learn as much as he could about the other players  guests by hacking  listening

[Magestar he/him]

19 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:

In fact, this whole discussion in LG22 covers some of my points wonderfully.

It amuses me that this D1 lynch discussion is referring to the one in LG22, which in turn refers to something in... LG12, I think?   I personally think a D1 lynch is always good to establish base reads and discussion.  On the same note, I tend to dislike participating in them, so as not to put myself in a position I'll regret later.  I think it might be worthwhile to lynch Joe, just for information, but I have a village gut read on him, despite the things he's done.  Then again, my gut reads keep getting me in trouble, so I'm going to stick to not voting for now.

21 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:

A more interesting and fruitful discussion is what the village should do about Odium and Autonomy.  I actually disagree with myself earlier on about finding and getting rid of Odium - their win condition is definitely more in line with the village's win condition than the Shard's win condition, and if necessary I would be willing to cooperate with them.  I'm not, however, too sure about Autonomy.  Autonomy's win condition would require some tricky timing to get working, unless of course they did something along the lines of tagging everyone but the last member of the 17th Shard, at which point we kill them and both the Village and Autonomy win.  It's definitely possible for all three to win, the question is, is it worth trying?

On this;  It looks like it's physically possible for nearly everyone to win via conversion and some shenanigans.  However, if we did this, I feel we would be pushed into a very controlled scenario, where, although everyone might win, I think it would become very difficult to have fun.  I believe this kind of thing has been discussed before, and while alliances are great, I think any extremely controlled option in order to get everyone to win should be shot down.  

[Conquestor he/him]

This whole day one lynch discussion, doesn't even need to happen. We could lynch inactives, such as Doc12 and Assassin in Burgundy. If we kill inactives, it is more of a neutral and even if we kill villagers, (Which is very likely) then, at least, they were not doing anything to help. So, win, win.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Conquestor

[Magestar he/him]

7 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

This whole day one lynch discussion, doesn't even need to happen. We could lynch inactives, such as Doc12 and Assassin in Burgundy. If we kill inactives, it is more of a neutral and even if we kill villagers, (Which is very likely) then, at least, they were not doing anything to help. So, win, win.

I'd be more likely to lynch Zephrer, who hasn't posted, has been pinged, and hasn't responded, if my memory serves.  I think he's been on, too.

[manukos he/him]

My thoughts on D1 lynches align completely with @Magestar since if we kill someone important I don't have to take responsibility 

as for killing the inactive I understand why it is better than killing a rando , but I would like to shed some spotlight at @Darkness Ascendant he loged in saw his role spoke in the roshar chat and hasn't added anything since  . Mya estimation is that he has a minor role or that he is waiting for the night . Then again he could.... like be busy and staff , but this version is less fun 

apart from that my brain is fried from writing my RP for one hour so I am heading out and won't be back until night arrives .

best of luck 

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

As a general rule, I disagree with C1 lunches. They're pretty much pointless and are mostly just a shot in the dark. At this point, we don't have any compelling evidence against anyone, so IMO we should just hold off until we can actually find an Elim. As a side note, I'll be a bit inactive as I'm in Canada and can only log on when I find free wifi. I might be able to make a post or two a cycle.

[manukos he/him]

Yes yes .... In "canada"... Sure mr sharder.

What part exactly ? Hoidario ?  

Jk jk.  

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

2 minutes ago, harambe said:

Yes yes .... In "canada"... Sure mr sharder.

What part exactly ? Hoidario ?  

Jk jk.  

Alberta. We have some friends there and we're spending Christmas break with them. 

[AliasSheep]

1 hour ago, Conquestor said:

This whole day one lynch discussion, doesn't even need to happen. We could lynch inactives, such as Doc12 and Assassin in Burgundy. If we kill inactives, it is more of a neutral and even if we kill villagers, (Which is very likely) then, at least, they were not doing anything to help. So, win, win.

Lynching inactives helps the elims and doesn't help the village, at least day one.  We're not stalling for time on Day one, we're looking for information.  Incative players have said nothing and so by lynching them we gain no information.

14 minutes ago, Assassin in Burgundy said:

As a general rule, I disagree with C1 lunches. They're pretty much pointless and are mostly just a shot in the dark.

See this:

1 hour ago, AliasSheep said:

Second, something several people in LG22 brought up when @Sart tried to start discussion about whether or not we should have a lynch - that discussion has been done a thousand times and it's generally accepted that it's a good idea to have a day 1 lynch; in fact, it's like, statistically proven to be better (give me a bit for me to find the actual citation for this - if I don't find it, you can discard this specific point, but my others still stand).  In addition, it was mentioned that bringing up this specific discussion is a great way off putting off actual discussion about who we should lynch, which, as aforeshown, is incredibly important.  As it happens Sart was an eliminator and putting off discussion was exactly what he was doing.  

In fact, this whole discussion in LG22 covers some of my points wonderfully.

We're not lynching to get someone we think is an eliminator.  We're lynching someone we think is the most suspicious so we can gain more information and evaluate the claims they've made which helps us later lynch an eliminator.

[Zephrer he/him]

Sorry all ya'll life's been hectic and i haven't had much time to get on.

For the GM's benefit, I'll be roleplaying as Tardeick a shardbearer from Roshar who accidentally worldhopped and is looking for a way home.
and for everyone else's benefit, I'm on Taldain, I see no harm in saying that. but you all already deduced that it looks like. 

[Jondesu he/him]

1 hour ago, AliasSheep said:

Lynching inactives helps the elims and doesn't help the village, at least day one.  We're not stalling for time on Day one, we're looking for information.  Incative players have said nothing and so by lynching them we gain no information.

See this:

We're not lynching to get someone we think is an eliminator.  We're lynching someone we think is the most suspicious so we can gain more information and evaluate the claims they've made which helps us later lynch an eliminator.

Except we have no basis for suspicion usually first cycle, and an insanely high chance of lynching someone potentially useful (since those roles should currently far outnumber the 17th Shard members). Discussion is key, but a lynch is not, and is dangerous in this type of game.