Long Game 24: The Godless City

[Elenion]

Here's my current suspicions about the playing field. Most-suspicious player is marked in yellow.

Alvron: No opinion yet

Amanuensis: Too good a player for me to deduce anything as of yet. Good gut read, though.

Antgrgmn: No posts I've seen

Aonar: No posts I've seen

Araris: Lurking, but not too suspicious

Arraenae: No opinions yet

Burnt Spaghetti: Not enough posts

Conquestor: No posts that I've seen

Ecthelion III: Has defended me with logic. If he was an elim he probably would have targeted me, but I can't say for sure. Good gut read.

Elbereth: No posts that I've seen

Elenion: Me

Emerald: Multiple people have expressed suspicions on him/her, but I haven't seen anything suspicious

Eolhondras: No opinions yet

Jaime: No opinions yet

Kipper: Seemed too eager to find a target. Possible elim.

Lopen: Bad gut read but little else.

Magestar: Seems logical enough.

Mailliw: Probably not an elim due to inactivity coming up

Master Elodin: No posts I've seen

Orlok: No opinions yet

Renegade: Nothing that I remember...

Sart: Inactive, I have a poke on him currently

Silverblade: No posts I remember

Stink: I find it strange how fast that counter-bandwagon materialized. Called for help in doc?

Straw: No opinions yet

The Silver Dragon: No posts I've seen

The Young Bard: No opinions yet

Wilson: Too good a player for me to make any decent conclusions. Good gut read.

[STINK]

Just now, Elenion said:

Stink: I find it strange how fast that counter-bandwagon materialized. Called for help in doc?

I'm just that good

[Elenion]

I'll try out a new strategy: make my suspicions vocal but don't railroad anybody about them.

[Kipper]

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Ah okay, true. I'm just more vocal about it as I'm apparently the most known example of it. 

You're trying to tell me you never lie in role swapping?

Ah, what I should have said is that I never lie to people about how I'll use their information (unless I'm an Eliminator). I'm always completely honest with where my info will go and what I'll do with it.

2 hours ago, STINK said:

damnation this joke is too crude for SE. Kip can definitely guess what my response would be, and any other teenage boys in SE?

Is that a question or a comment?

 

2 hours ago, STINK said:

Mailliw is a bants machine, and this is like his last cycle

STINK is just the Archbishop of Banterbury, and his win condition means he can effectively ignore the game

Other peeps might join in on the bants, like Orlok the absolute ledge and stuff.

New title for Orlok: Orlok the Ledge. Also, Stink is really tickling my funny bone this cycle.

2 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

Honestly, what is this bandwagon on Elenion about? I think Kipper is just salty about last game when Elenion got Kipper lynched (even though Kipper never posted a reason why not to).   Kipper, remember last game when you were suspicious of Elenion for using certain words like "us"? You can't instantly judge a new player as suspicious because of certain words. Also, the *groan* was in response to Stink's joke, which I thought was rather good.

Wilson explained below what some of my thoughts are on the bandwagon. Elenion is using the Gambler's Fallacy with almost every post, and it's very disconcerting. "Using every bit of power and influence" to cause havoc is a seriously irresponsible playstyle, especially when it seems to have no point. In re to the MR comments, I don't hold grudges. The only grudge I've ever held in these games was against @DeathClutch19 (still unsatisfied; plz play a game so I can kill u), and that was because of targeted and deliberate misinterpretation, not this wild flailing around in the MR and LG. And when I was lynched, I didn't give a reason "why not to" because there was none. The only argument against me was that I had been afk, and the only I could respond to that was with "I don't think an Eliminator would be this actively afk."

 

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Welcome to the Everyone Suspects Elenion Game Show, which seems suspiciously like what happened to Village @The Young Bard in MR15. Bard, I'm having a little sympathy for you right now.

Okay, let's get down to business, and that business is this massive lynch train. Presenting:

Elenion's Conspiracy Theory: LG24 #1: The Great Lynch Train

Sequence of Events:

1. Len (me) bandwagon-pokes on STINK, a strategy that I have used before, but that apparently still panics people.
2. @Kipper drops a vote on me for unspecified reasons other than what I said. Funny, considering he spent all of MR15 doing the same, and I was village.

 

1. Trust me, no one is panicking.
2. Except for MR15 really has no relevance to this game. This is called the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

Quote

Possible motivations for each:

1. Kipper's vote does appear to be retribution for MR15 D5 lynch, but I might be wrong on that point
2. Emerald drops an overreaction vote. Seems logical for someone who doesn't know me.
3. Lopen's vote is the strangest for him, although it seems like something I might try myself. Why help an established bandwagon with little evidence?

1. Yes, you're wrong.
2. Okay, this is more of a meta-comment, but just because someone "doesn't know you" doesn't mean that they can't suspect you. And Stormfather, you take condescending dismissal to a whole new level.
3. Good question, coming from a person who has expressed delight in causing havoc and confusion. Why? Well, because it's a D1 lynch, and already people are talking, and we're getting more reads based off of who does what.

Quote

The Elenion Counter-Plan

1. I stick with what I said. Yes, I am aggressive. Yes, I bandwagon. No, that doesn't mean I'm an elim. Yes, feel free to gather more evidence.
2. I call for solid evidence to be presented against me. No more gut reads, no more bandwagons for the sake of the wagon.
3. I am willing (and always ready) to roleclaim and prove such. However, I would not like to (for obvious reasons) unless absolutely necessary. I will admit that I have already role-claimed in one PM, although I'd prefer the player in question to hold that information back.
4. I call for no counter-wagon as of yet, because I want an educated lynch. I'm all for causing fear with votes, but the final consensus should always be educated.

1. Alright. Will do.
2. There is no solid evidence. But then, how many times do we lynch someone on confirmed, *hard* evidence? Rarely; very rarely. Gut is a huge part of this game, and a huge part of internal physiology. Respect it as such.
3. You didn't roleclaim to me. Why not? How will you prove your role? When will you claim your role if you want to get out of this bandwagon?
4. My heart is at rest.

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Someone's asking questions in an elim doc

I imagine someone is.

1 hour ago, Silverblade5 said:

Hi everyone. I've been without internet for hours, and I'm still catching up on the thread. Did I miss anything important?

Go and upvote most of Stink's posts and you'll be good.

 

22 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Moving on to Elenion himself. I don't particularly find anything suspicious with the bandwagon vote. For me, it's the comments that Kipper pointed out about how he's never been an eliminator and all the other joking he did about alignments. I can absolutely see why someone would get an eliminator read from that, Kipper in particular. I'm not at all surprised that Kipper voted for Elenion based on those comments. It reads like a first-time eliminator trying to get people not to look at him because "I've never been an eliminator! I couldn't be an eliminator now!" Nope, sorry, you could.

Post-"defense" the only vote that strikes me as even possibly off is Lopen's, but I'm not even sure about that. Kipper had mentioned a bandwagon, other people had also mentioned it, and Lopen threw his vote onto it. To my recollection (though I could be wrong about this), Lopen isn't opposed to supported bandwagons unlike some players, so him contributing to it doesn't really mean much. I'd bet that he also found Elenion suspicious and didn't care to elaborate because so many others had already said basically the same thing. Or maybe he did it as a joke, knowing that there's still over 24 hours left in the turn, which is plenty of time to retract a vote. Because of this, I don't really mind Lopen's vote.

One internal test that I always stress with myself is looking at both sides of motivations for a particular statement.

Ex1: "Lol village again"
Villager: "Lol village again."
Eliminator: If I say "lol village again," maybe they'll buy it and just think I was a careless villager.
Conclusion: It's pretty much impossible to determine whether the person who said this is an Eliminator or Villager, because they both have valid reasons for saying it. Don't focus too much on it, because you'll just out-wifom your own brain and likely come to a faulty conclusion.

Feel free to use this test on Elenion.  Ask yourself if a villager would have the motivation to make a wifom in certain cases.

Also, @little wilson, I find Emerald's vote actually more suspicious than Lopen's. Almost like Emerald was grasping for a valid reason to vote Elenion, so he could use it as a defense later on if necessary.

[Silverblade5]

Alvron

Tried to feed me bad info

Thank you everyone else. 

[Kipper]

3 minutes ago, Silverblade5 said:

Alvron

Tried to feed me bad info

Thank you everyone else. 

Smh Alvron, if you want better info to feed people in the future, just come to me. I have it all.

Ha, no problem Silverblade! It's my pleasure!

 

HEY STINK

WHAT DO YOU CALL IT WHEN SAM SMITH USES HAND WIPES?

[STINK]

Uh, a lame joke?

[Kipper]

Just now, STINK said:

Uh, a lame joke?

SAM-ITIZING HIS HANDS!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Ecthelion III]

@Elenion turn down the arrogance a little. I don't think your behavior is indicative of an eliminator, but it doesn't make me want to trust you.

[STINK]

Alright, game talk? I've been dicking around for the first 24 hours of this game, yes, because this is the bit of the game that matters least, and I want it to be the most fun both for me but also for Mailliw (bye bye), but I might do a bit of try-harding from now on. Because I'm Neutral though, I'll take requests for who I analyse, so you can do to me what I basically did to some people for Aman. Again, here's some crappy Jumae RP, but I gotta slowly get him out of this inn somehow. (That first RP post is gonna be the best Jumae one probably btw guys)

---------------------------------------------

Jumae woke up yet again. He dismissed his monochrome spell. He got out of bed. He shambled over to the middle of the room. He put his feet at shoulder’s width apart. He thrust his hands into the air. He got annoyed at starting every sentence with ‘He’. He ignored that last sentence. He slowly chanted underneath his breath:

“Why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up why cant i wake up”

And then, as if by magic, Jumae felt his whole body slowly rejuvenate, and as his body and his mind woke up, and as the sentence got longer as a literary technique, Jumae finally woke up.

“What’s with all the commas?”

Jumae, unfortunately, was being written by someone who most certainly used their commas way too much, as if it was a story being told and a comma was for a breath, rather than it being typed on google docs. Jumae pulled out a scroll from his dirty and nearly-destroyed coat, and started to read it.

‘Somebody gave you reputation…’ X40.

Jumae did not know that people were following his life closely, and he will never find out about it. Reputation for Jumae was how he would win whatever game had dragged him to this infernal town, as the sooner he could leave it then the sooner he could get back to his magical bath of ultra magic (trademark pending).

When Jumae went downstairs for breakfast, he was glad to see that most of the people in the room had dirtied their hair, especially the girl who used to have the most sparkly, gleaming hair in the whole inn. In fact, there were only two people who hadn’t dirtied themselves, and Jumae was instantly intrigued at their unexpected appearance at his new claimed territory. Not that it would be the only one, as Jumae was sure to conquer more of the city.

[Sart]

Elenion, this isn't personal, but you have to stop referencing MR15 all the time. The eliminators lost that game due to poor game balance, not because of your role. I know that has been your only game so far, but you keep bringing it up, trying to maintain innocence. I know getting lynched day 1 sucks, but we need to start discussion somehow.

[TheMightyLopen]

Hm, well, considering I think Magestar didn't see my vote on him before he left and so probably won't be able to put up a response any time soon, I'll remove it and look for a better suited candidate.

[Arrae]

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

 

• Merchant and Duke: Like I said earlier, try to avoid making ties unless you're really confident that the extra death will end up on an eliminator. Otherwise feel free to prove your ability by affecting irrelevant votes, I.E. removing a single poke vote or placing one on a random player without any. If you haven't claimed it already, you might be able to claim it later on to help prove yourself innocent. Personally, I would like to see all of the Merchants and Dukes use their power on players not up for the lynch this term, so that we can get a rough idea of how many there are out there.

I don't see how claiming Merchant or Duke clears anybody. Anybody can claim anything -- they can claim that they are a Merchant/Duke, that they were responsible for the vote manips that led to eliminators dying, that they were the one to move a single poke vote, etc. We have no village role scanners, so we have no confirmed way to back up someone's claim.

It's possible that if someone lies, the real Merchant/Duke who did the claimed action might call them out, but we don't know if that will happen. The real Merchant/Duke might be dead, or inactive, or afraid to counter-claim, or unaware that such a claim took place.

So, Amanuensis, how does a claim help prove a Merchant/Duke as innocent?

[Renegade]

Hmm, suppose I should offer a few quick thoughts on the day’s proceedings…

First of all, I am not altogether suspicious of the players who voted for Elenion, as there would be no reason for eliminators to attempt to bandwagon on someone this early.  In fact, I think that this bandwagon transpired well, giving us something from Elenion’s defense.  From what I’ve read, I haven’t been convinced either way of Elenion himself.

Moving on to Stink, I’m somewhat surprised that no votes have appeared against him, considering that he revealed himself to (supposedly) be a neutral role that appears to be of no particular help to the village, and his actual posts have been of limited help as well.  If we do choose to keep him alive, we might want to get a Legionnaire on him at some point to interrogate him.  (Though, on second thought, I highly doubt any players are crazy enough to force themselves in a doc with Stink.)

Also, as lighthearted as the conversation has been so far, we should try to do King Iadon a service and rid ourselves of too many unnecessary distractions.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Renegade

[Ecthelion III]

Just now, Arraenae said:

I don't see how claiming Merchant or Duke clears anybody. Anybody can claim anything -- they can claim that they are a Merchant/Duke, that they were responsible for the vote manips that led to eliminators dying, that they were the one to move a single poke vote, etc. We have no village role scanners, so we have no confirmed way to back up someone's claim.

It's possible that if someone lies, the real Merchant/Duke who did the claimed action might call them out, but we don't know if that will happen. The real Merchant/Duke might be dead, or inactive, or afraid to counter-claim, or unaware that such a claim took place.

So, Amanuensis, how does a claim help prove a Merchant/Duke as innocent?

I'm thinking he meant claiming beforehand (for example, say "I'm going to use my vote on XXX" right before rollover) and everyone will see the vote the next morning.

[Arrae]

1 minute ago, Ecthelion III said:

I'm thinking he meant claiming beforehand (for example, say "I'm going to use my vote on XXX" right before rollover) and everyone will see the vote the next morning.

That proves the claimer can manipulate votes, or knows someone who can manipulate votes. It proves nothing else.

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, Silverblade5 said:

Alvron

Tried to feed me bad info

Thank you everyone else. 

My info wasn't bad.  It doesn't pass the use by date for another two days.

[Amanuensis]

20 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

 

 

I don't see how claiming Merchant or Duke clears anybody. Anybody can claim anything -- they can claim that they are a Merchant/Duke, that they were responsible for the vote manips that led to eliminators dying, that they were the one to move a single poke vote, etc. We have no village role scanners, so we have no confirmed way to back up someone's claim.

It's possible that if someone lies, the real Merchant/Duke who did the claimed action might call them out, but we don't know if that will happen. The real Merchant/Duke might be dead, or inactive, or afraid to counter-claim, or unaware that such a claim took place.

So, Amanuensis, how does a claim help prove a Merchant/Duke as innocent?

Nine times out of ten, if a player claims an action that they didn't make, they're going to get called out by the player who actually did it, and the player who lied about making that action is going to end up lynched one way or another. In my opinion there is never a good reason for a villager to take credit for what someone else did (except in the case that they have the consent of the true manipulator, which will most likely happen only to draw fire). Now, the main purpose of that suggestion is to keep the village vote manipulators away from the lynch. Eliminators are automatically more knowledgeable than villagers (they know who is on their team and who isn't) which makes vote manipulation powers a lot more useful for them. If a villager blindly tries to take the lynch into their own hands, it will usually end up doing more harm than good. If all of the village vote manipulators vow to not affect the lynch, at least for a little while, the eliminators are either forced to avoid using the power or reveal what they are capable of, which tells us all a role that we need to look out for. Additionally, in the event that the eliminators can manipulate votes and use it to affect the lynch, there's evidence we can actually analyze. We can ask ourselves if they only used that power to prolong the death of their players, for example. Is that confusing? If there are any dead Merchants/Dukes, then all you need to ask is the claimer to prove it again by choosing a vote for them to change. Same thing if you think that the Merchant/Duke is inactive, afraid to counter-claim, or unaware of the claim. I don't believe I said trust a Merchant / Duke because they said "Oh hey, you know that one vote change two cycles ago? That was me. Give me all your info." I was only saying that they could use what they did in the past to help prove themselves innocent, because if they used their power to make it clear they exist without affecting the lynch they are most likely a villager.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Amanuensis

[A Joe in the Bush]

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Couple things I'm confused about regarding PMs. @The Only Joe, I understand that PMs can't be started and replied to during the night, but how are you going to keep people from reading them? And if I do open up a PM during a night turn just to read it, what kind of punishment am I going to receive? Also, what's the point in only PMing myself? I don't really expect an answer for that last question, and am likely going to just PM myself now to test it, but the rest I would love some clarification on.

• Beggar:  That being said, @The Only Joe, if a role is taking by taken by one Beggar, is it still available to other Beggar's to take?
• Noble: Another question for @The Only Joe; is this a day action or a night action? 

There's absolutely no way for me to stop you from reading PM's. That was another case of bad wording feel free to read them. Also, this is one thing I will clarify in thread, you can reply to the GM PM during the night.

Beggar: Yes. Multiple Beggars can take the same role.

Noble: Day Action.

8 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Storms. I want access to italics. I didn't realize we needed Godly Permissions to use it.

Permission Granted

4 hours ago, STINK said:

*proceeds to quote me role claiming publicly*

Don't talk to me about it! Joe's the one making the secret roles!

And Noah. Just for note, for those of you who are using meta knowledge of me to guess what roles I added, My little brother helped me out with this game. Both Balance wise and role wise. 

4 hours ago, jaimeleecee said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought this meant his alignment is neutral and his win-con is just to survive, not that he has a survival role.. that would make his win con too easy  I do remember Joe saying there would be neutral roles with their own win-cons, but he could still just as easily be making it up from knowing that alone 

Not Would be. Could be. The might be Citizens, Neutrals, and Evil-Neutrals. Those three alignmenst are optional. The only guaranteed alignment is Eliminator.

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Eh, if anyone wants to know, this is STINK's guide to fun!

1. Never be 100% certain of anything,

2. If someone says something and you trust them, continue to trust them until they do something untrustworthy.

3. Continuing on from that, find players you trust before players you don't trust, so that you always have some communication that can be fun going.

4. Not every post has to be 100% about SE

5. If you've just made multiple posts about something, it's probably time for you to stop posting about it, you're way too biased by then.

7. Remember that part of the fun to you might be winning, but to others its the personal interactions  So don't try to shut down all OOG talk.

Huh, I really like that actually. I might sig that.

[Arrae]

Okay, that makes sense. I think your use of the word "innocent" made me think you said that all Merchant/Duke claimers are villagers.  Semantics are tricky things.

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, The Only Joe said:

 

There's absolutely no way for me to stop you from reading PM's. That was another case of bad wording feel free to read them. Also, this is one thing I will clarify in thread, you can reply to the GM PM during the night.

Beggar: Yes. Multiple Beggars can take the same role.

Noble: Day Action.

Okay, so I don't have to worry about avoiding my PMs at night. Cool.

Oh, wow. Okay. So like, if we lynch a Bodyguard today, all the Beggars could become a Bodyguard immediately. Kinda scary.

Alright in that case how does everyone feel about all of the Nobles casting their extra vote on either a random player or the player who's in the lead to be lynched, just to prove that there are vanillas out there?

[Alvron]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh, wow. Okay. So like, if we lynch a Bodyguard today, all the Beggars could become a Bodyguard immediately. Kinda scary.

It's only scary if you're an Eliminator.  I find it quite comforting.

[TheMightyLopen]

So we should totally have a Dula claim and then lynch them so that every Beggar can become an alignment scanner right?

[Elenion]

Sart is on, so I'll remove the poke vote from him.

It appears that I still have a few votes on me, but I can't argue any more than I have.

I propose a plan. Those who like it can go along with it. Those who don't don't have to do anything.

Elenion's Suicidal and Daft Plan to Prove His Innocence:

1. Lynch me!!!!
2. I will then be hard-cleared as village.
3. My many interactions with players can then be analyzed
4. Hopefully, some elims may be killed because of it

TL;DR: Lynching me might not be such a bad idea

Edited July 29, 2016 by Elenion

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Alvron said:

It's only scary if you're an Eliminator.  I find it quite comforting.

 

4 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

So we should totally have a Dula claim and then lynch them so that every Beggar can become an alignment scanner right?

 

And this is exactly why I find it scary, haha. Anything that tilts the balance one way or another is concerning, to say the least in my opinion (is what I meant to say). Given that tidbit of information, I wouldn't be surprised if there was at least one eliminator!Beggar out there.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Amanuensis
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