Araris Valerian Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well, Ada, I see a couple of problems with your plan, one minor one having to do with your assumption, and another major one. First of all, you assume that PK revealed that he was a Thug to his faction. I know in my faction, nobody has revealed the specific allomantic power that they have, only whether or not they have one at all. So if the other factions are like mine, Penrod probably didn't plan around having a thug in their faction. The other, larger problem, is that if Penrod knows that they are going to lose a member of their house to the Koloss, then why bother defending? Why lose all of their Koloss to do nothing? Instead they will most likely attack another Faction, knowing that that faction has 2 Koloss that aren't able to defend. This is the sort of plan that would have worked really well with PM communication, but won't work as well now that it is in the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, Ada, I see a couple of problems with your plan, one minor one having to do with your assumption, and another major one. First of all, you assume that PK revealed that he was a Thug to his faction. I know in my faction, nobody has revealed the specific allomantic power that they have, only whether or not they have one at all. So if the other factions are like mine, Penrod probably didn't plan around having a thug in their faction. The other, larger problem, is that if Penrod knows that they are going to lose a member of their house to the Koloss, then why bother defending? Why lose all of their Koloss to do nothing? Instead they will most likely attack another Faction, knowing that that faction has 2 Koloss that aren't able to defend. This is the sort of plan that would have worked really well with PM communication, but won't work as well now that it is in the open. Did you read my post on N0 about how incredibly unwise that is? Your faction not claiming their abilities, I mean. I'm assuming at least one person in your House did so it's probably not important that you didn't read it, in particular. But once again I want to reiterate that by your Housesmates not openly admitting what abilities they have makes it incredibly easy for the Spiked to slip through the cracks. That, and the fact that you can't strategize as effectively, but... oh well, I guess that's your decision to make. Since there was no opposition to the points I brought up, and that I personally believed it was very convincing compared to the alternative, I just assumed there that everyone had claimed in their Houses. EDIT: A bit late now, anyway. That means if the Inquisitor started in your House that he now knows exactly what he needs to claim to skate through this game. That second point, however, was something I did not consider. If they did do such a thing at least it would force Penrod to throw all their koloss at a single House, as they have no idea how many each House has left to defend. And once again that comes down to whether or not people want to take that chance; a guarantee to kill one more Penrod at a 33% chance they get attacked by Penrod at random. A lesser chance, even, if they attack a House that has enough koloss to spare 2 for an attack and match every one of Penrod's koloss. Edited July 2, 2016 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Elodin Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) I'm sorry, Aman, but if the plan benefits everyone but requires trusting everyone, I'm not in. Your faction would probably just attack a faction other than Penrod, ensuring that you kill at least one person from another faction with probably no casualties to your faction. This plan even helps if you're Spiked! The only way that it's beneficial to the village is if we can all trust each other, and that's not happening anytime soon. Edited July 2, 2016 by Master Elodin Clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Master Elodin said: I'm sorry, Aman, but if the plan benefits everyone and requires trusting everyone, I'm not in. Your faction would probably just attack a faction other than Penrod, ensuring that you kill at least one person from another faction with probably no casualties to your faction. This plan even helps if you're Spiked! The only way that it's beneficial to the village is if we can all trust each other, and that's not happening anytime soon. Except that would be a terrible idea. If a House has two kandra, all they would need to do is use them to check what the opposite Houses (other than Penrod) did with their koloss tonight to find out which House, if any, attacked anyone other than Penrod. Betraying the other Houses in such a way would likely result in my lynch. I wouldn't suggest this plan and put my life on the line if my House wasn't willing to follow through with it. That being said, Araris already made a pretty good point about Penrod retaliating, and I'm less convinced it's a good idea. Will have to talk it over with my Housemates and see how players from other Houses feel. Also, how dies this plan help if I'm Spiked? When I suggested it, it was with the intention of only a single faction losing a member. It's far better for the Spiked if they organized it so each faction attacked a different one due to how many more casualties there would be. At least in this case there would be only one death, as opposed to two or three (no longer true, considering what Araris pointed out). So I'd argue that this idea was more anti-Spiked than Spiked, at its original conception. Edited July 2, 2016 by Amanuensis Added second and third paragraphs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phattemer Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Hmm. Well, i think I'd agree that your plan needs some work, Aman. As has been stated, any faction, especially yours, could jump at the opportunity to attack another, weaker, one. And also, to find out which one had done and lynch a member of that faction would require twice the Kandra that you suggest. I think either you didn't think that through very well, or you're Spiked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 We could do this with any faction. Maybe Lekal, Aman? Would you like that one? Or perhaps you're in Venture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) 22 minutes ago, phattemer said: Hmm. Well, i think I'd agree that your plan needs some work, Aman. As has been stated, any faction, especially yours, could jump at the opportunity to attack another, weaker, one. And also, to find out which one had done and lynch a member of that faction would require twice the Kandra that you suggest. I think either you didn't think that through very well, or you're Spiked. I was supposed to bring it up earlier in the turn so more people could weigh in on it, but had become preoccupied with real life endeavors. While it's true that any House could jump at the opportunity to attack another one other than Penrod, this is the only cycle that we all know for sure that one House is behind the others. It's a very common strategy in multi-sided wars for the more powerful armies to gang up on the weaker ones, in order to remove less factors from future battles and allow themselves to gain some more strength for the endgame, other than deal with fighting three equal enemies at once. My main appeal with the plan at all was how I could totally pictures Houses actually doing this exact thing in Mistborn and that it'd make things a little bit more interesting than being too paranoid about losing a person to act. That being said, it doesn't really require a kandra to figure out player's House affiliations. Old-school detective work has already gotten me the names of a single player in each House, at least. As I said from the get go, things were quiet and I don't like quiet if I gave everyone all of the answers then there would be no real discussion. The point of suggesting the plan wasn't necessarily to encourage people to make it happen, either because I have a personal beef with Penrod or am trying to set up some epic betrayal, but to get people talking. I haven't learned anything new or interesting this night turn, and given I know I won't survive past N2 I want to get as much content to analyze as possible for my team. 20 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said: We could do this with any faction. Maybe Lekal, Aman? Would you like that one? Or perhaps you're in Venture? Inb4 I'm actually Penrod and this is just a devious ploy to make sure you're all looking for enemies elsewhere Edited July 2, 2016 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well, I'm down for us all hitting Venture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) 1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said: Well, I'm down for us all hitting Venture. Come at us, bros (edit: and sises). Edited July 2, 2016 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Just now, Amanuensis said: Come at us, bros. 3 Koloss on defense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said: 3 Koloss on defense? Dunno, haven't put the order in yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well Mailliw, that still has the same problem as what I pointed out. If all the Houses agree to attack one single House that is incapable of defending, they are free to retaliate. So really it comes down to whether we want to have random deaths more than we want to have deaths by the lynch. Because Ada's plan, or any variation that targets another House, is likely to result in 2 random deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: Dunno, haven't put the order in yet I'd recommend all 3. 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: Well Mailliw, that still has the same problem as what I pointed out. If all the Houses agree to attack one single House that is incapable of defending, they are free to retaliate. So really it comes down to whether we want to have random deaths more than we want to have deaths by the lynch. Because Ada's plan, or any variation that targets another House, is likely to result in 2 random deaths. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said: I'd recommend all 3. I know. I was hoping that literally anyone else would have tried to suggest the House reversal for most other players that would have been a clear indicator that they were Penrod, but now I can't be sure if you're an actual Penrod or just countering the proposal to ruin my bait. I'm leaning towards the former, though, because I think you'd be interested in that kind of information otherwise and let someone else make the first move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I was hoping that literally anyone else would have tried to suggest the House reversal for most other players that would have been a clear indicator that they were Penrod, but now I can't be sure if you're an actual Penrod or just countering the proposal to ruin my bait. I'm leaning towards the former, though, because I think you'd be interested in that kind of information otherwise and let someone else make the first move. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well, Hadrian was very willing to find errors in your plan because he is definitely part of House Penrod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, Hadrian was very willing to find errors in your plan because he is definitely part of House Penrod. Oh right, of course, you did sign up as a Penrod, didn't you? Not that I actually believe you're a member of that House, for the purposes of this game That being said, I was aware of the potential retaliation plan before suggesting it. I figured that the Penrods would discuss that in their doc before pointing out in thread and thus allow a non-Penrod considering the consequences of such a thing to bring it up first. Given it was you... hmph, I guess I could take into consideration the GM temptation to give you the House your character is affiliated with, but I think it's more likely that he'd either intentionally put you elsewhere or rely on an RNG for your placement. So for the moment I'm leaning towards you not being a Penrod. Maybe Venture, given you felt the need to remind Mailliw about the drawback after he mentioned attacking that House, but like with Mailliw's repeated obvious hints at him being Cett, it could be a ploy. Edited July 2, 2016 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade Posted July 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 (edited) Only 3 hours and 20 minutes left in the cycle! Get your actions/faction actions in now, while you can! Edited July 2, 2016 by Renegade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Elodin Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 2 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Oh right, of course, you did sign up as a Penrod, didn't you? Not that I actually believe you're a member of that House, for the purposes of this game That being said, I was aware of the potential retaliation plan before suggesting it. I figured that the Penrods would discuss that in their doc before pointing out in thread and thus allow a non-Penrod considering the consequences of such a thing to bring it up first. Given it was you... hmph, I guess I could take into consideration the GM temptation to give you the House your character is affiliated with, but I think it's more likely that he'd either intentionally put you elsewhere or rely on an RNG for your placement. So for the moment I'm leaning towards you not being a Penrod. Maybe Venture, given you felt the need to remind Mailliw about the drawback after he mentioned attacking that House, but like with Mailliw's repeated obvious hints at him being Cett, it could be a ploy. Wait, I'm confused now. How did you know my faction? You Cetts, so tricksy. Aman, come to the doc. I need to tell you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade Posted July 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Time's up! Write-up coming in about an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade Posted July 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Day 2: Another One Spikes the Dust Few of us, however, could have predicted the inclusion of another element: a Steel Inquisitor. Formerly the agents of the Lord Ruler, they now served… something else. After Marsh mysteriously disappeared when we were returning from Seran, I knew there was something else happening. A bigger picture, that I could not yet see. The air during the night was abnormally cold, despite the fact that there had been no ash falling during the day. The mists, as usually, flowed through the lonely, quiet streets of Luthadel. All atop the walls, soldiers of Luthadel peered nervously into the mists, hoping and praying that tonight would not be the night that one of the four armies attacked -- or all of them attacked. But as the hours wore on, it became increasingly apparent that this wouldn’t happen. Not tonight. Nevertheless, there was activity in each of the enemy encampments. The factions were preparing for a siege. And if they wouldn’t attack tonight, they’d only redouble their strength for an attack tomorrow. Their only hope was that Elend’s plan to get the factions to turn on each other would work. But so far, it would appear as if it hadn’t. What these soldiers failed to see, however, was a hooded figure, with spikes for eyes, slink through the streets of Luthadel, cautiously winding their way towards the large keep where the ball had been held only hours ago, a large metal spike held in their hands. The Inquisitor emerged from the keep without such a spike in their hands, instead dragging a limp form through the streets. The battle may not have begun just yet, but treachery was indeed afoot. - - - - - Nobody died, but somebody was Spiked! Day 2 begins now and will end in 47 hours. Your faction information will be updated shortly. Good luck! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnt Spaghetti Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 (edited) Quick links: > Sign ups> Night 0> Day 1> Night 1 Player list: Jonly (The Only Joe) Locke (OrlokTsubodai) Sandhya (Elbereth) Silk (Amanuensis) Rima (Mailliw73) Olvar (Alvron) Ranel (The Young Bard) Guilty (Master Elodin) MottelMusgreave (Mckeedee123) Ri (Arraenae) Straw (Straw) Kelron (cloudjumper) Kipper (Kipper) Hadrian Penrod (Araris Valerian) Zas (zas678) Shara (Nyali) Vela (Burnt Spaghetti) Jaena (jaimeleecee) Dominic (dowanx) CennCelverclogs Stimbers (TheSilverDragon) Sart Tram (Sart) Ganon (TheMightyLopen) -- (STINK) Louik (Bugsy6912) Skydall (Paranoid King) Penrod Thug ExisaErikell (phattemer) Parth Resnuren (Conquestor) Edited July 3, 2016 by Burnt Spaghetti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Bard Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 (edited) I'm going to toss a vote at Alvron. He was lurking a lot in the previous round, but didn't seem to post much (but still a fair bit more than I remember him doing in LG21, though, which is strange.) Of what he did say, not all of it was fully explained. And, I know enough about Alvron just to have paranoia about him. Plus, everybody dead that's not in my faction is a bonus, particularly if that player is skilled at SE. In addition, he is known to have asked a question that an Inquisitor would be likely to ask. Yes, I know that Alvron is a very good player, and might have asked simply to know what an inquisitor was capable of doing. However, I also think that that piece of info is the strongest that we've got if we want to lynch the Inquisitor at this point in the game. Even if he's not the Inquisitor, he'll still be one important rival faction member dealt with, and if he is, then we'll have stopped the Spiked faction in record time. Plus, if I were the Inquisitor and picking a player in another faction not knowing any roles, I'd probably try and Spike the best player that hadn't attracted too much attention yet, in this case - Alv. While this isn't very much evidence, this is Alv we're talking about. I doubt I'd be able to get much evidence on him if he jumped up and down yelling "I'm an inquisitor. Lynch me!" Edited July 3, 2016 by The Young Bard Young Bard is officially a klutz. Spread the word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrae Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 13 minutes ago, The Young Bard said: I'm going to toss a vote at Alvron. He was lurking a lot in the previous game, but didn't seem to post much (but still a fair bit more than I remember him doing in LG21, though, which is strange.) Of what he did say, not all of it was fully explained. And, I know enough about Alvron just to have paranoia about him. Plus, everybody dead that's not in my faction is a bonus, particularly if that player is skilled at SE. In addition, he is known to have asked a question that an Inquisitor would be likely to ask. Yes, I know that Alvron is a very good player, and might have asked simply to know what an inquisitor was capable of doing. However, I also think that that piece of info is the strongest that we've got if we want to lynch the Inquisitor at this point in the game. Even if he's not the Inquisitor, he'll still be one important rival faction member dealt with, and if he is, then we'll have stopped the Spiked faction in record time. Plus, if I were the Inquisitor and picking a player in another faction not knowing any roles, I'd probably try and Spike the best player that hadn't attracted too much attention yet, in this case - Alv. While this isn't very much evidence, this is Alv we're talking about. I doubt I'd be able to get much evidence on him if he jumped up and down yelling "I'm an inquisitor. Lynch me!" I don't understand the first paragraph, Bard. Are you saying that Alv should die because last game he lurked but posted more than in LG21, and he has a reputation? I don't understand why he what he did last game has anything to do with this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Bard Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Arraenae said: I don't understand the first paragraph, Bard. Are you saying that Alv should die because last game he lurked but posted more than in LG21, and he has a reputation? I don't understand why he what he did last game has anything to do with this game. That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that Alv is: a) not revealing as much information as I'd like him to by keeping his cards close to his hand, and b ) bucking his own personal trend by being strangely active. Some of my faction-mates I spoke to also agree that Alv has been acting a little suspiciously, before I actually asked them about it. The fact that we both saw it separately makes me more confident in my own assessment. Plus, Alv has a reputation for a reason. He's a very skilled player, and I don't want him working against me, which I think 3/4 of the players will agree with me on. And a players playstyle is very important for catching an eliminator. In LG22, Meta was playing like... Meta. This was seen as normal for him, so no-one really criticised him about it. However, if Elb or another player who's not noted for having an aggressive playstyle started playing like that, it would be noted, and if Meta started trying to be extremely friendly with someone in thread, it would be noted. This is strange behaviour for them, and therefore they should at least be asked for a clarification or explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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