Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[STINK he/him]

I do indeed know a Forger, but can't go around doing much with that info now can I? So when I get a role from someone else, that I might actually be able to do something with it makes me happy. Sorry.

[queensteph she/her]

I had no idea who had what abilities because I honestly didn't use PMs that much. Stink did PM close to the start of night shift but all he said was "Hello" so I don't have much to contribute to the Stink suspicions. It's bad that we had to lose a Hemalurgist, and for all we know the HI could be an eliminator now (assuming he wasn't to begin with). So far I didn't really gain any information from PMs. 

 

My thoughts on Possibilities as to if the Suregebinder is an Eliminator or Loyal:

 

Eliminators motives: Said "Wilson did it" to shift more suspicion on her so that we would try to lynch her, which could mean they want her dead since she's a good player, but maybe they can't kill her so that could mean that she was a Voidbringer(?) , OR Wilson is an Eliminator and this is part of a plan which I don't know what their motive could be.

 

Loyal motives: Could have been trying to shift suspicion onto Wilson because either they have a reason to believe she's an eliminator, or they were trying to shift they suspicion away from someone else that they know to be good.

 

I'd like to hear everyone else's opinions on why they think the Surgebinder would target Wilson.

[Guest]

List of Mailliw's Death Throes, 2ndth Edition

1. (Wilson) 9:01PM GMT, November 6th, Creccio says he got a Hemalurgist claim. Thinks the claimant is sketchy because he threatened to kill Creccio to troll him.

2. (Kasimir) 9:06PM GMT, November 6th, Creccio claimed to have access to a "sketchy hemalurgist [sic] claim."

3. (Wilson) 11:00PM GMT, November 6th, Wilson tells Kipper about Creccio's claim.

4. (Wilson) 11:36PM GMT, November 6th, Wilson asks Maill if he is a Hemalurgist.
5. (Kasimir) 6:20PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson claimed that a Hemalurgist approached her and claimed to her.
6. (Kasimir) 6:26PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson noted that she "had reason to believe" that said Hemalurgist had claimed to "multiple people".

7. (Wilson) 10:01AM GMT, November 7th, Maill, responding to Wilson's query, says that he is a Hemalurgist.

8. (Wilson) 4:20PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson acknowledges Maill's claim and tells him that she will let the forger [who she presumed to be STINK] know.

9. (Wilson) 6:14PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson tells Stink about Maill wanting to be forged.

10. (Wilson) 7:13PM GMT, November 7th Wilson tells Kipper what happened [in her PM with Stink] about Maill.
11. (Kipper) 7:13PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson said to Kipper almost verbatim what is in her above post.
12. (Kipper) 7:20PM GMT, November 7th, Kipper told Adavantos that he had just discovered a Hemalurgist.

13. 8:13PM GMT, November 7th, Kas wonders if Maill roleclaimed, and if so, who he roleclaimed to.

14. 8:16PM GMT, November 7th, Kipper answers Kas, saying that Maill did roleclaim, and puts a vote on IrulelikeSTINK, citing #11.

15. 8:29PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson answers STINK's post, citing #10.

16. 8:30PM GMT, November 7th, Kas says we need a list of people who knew Mailliw's claim.

17. 8:33PM GMT, November 7th, STINK says that if Wilson suspects him, there isn't much to do, seemingly implying that everyone will follow Wilson's vote, referencing the bandwagon on Day One.

18. 8:56PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson notes that if Mailliw had been any other role, we wouldn't be having the current discussion, implying that it was a fearkill.

19. 8:59PM GMT, November 7th, Kas posts several items. Suggests that STINK is suspicious for not defending himself. Questions why Wilson outed STINK as a Forger. Again requests that people who knew of Mailliw's role come forward. Says that he doesn't think it likely that Mailliw got fearkilled; was likely killed because someone knew his role.

20. 9:09PM GMT, November 7th, Wilson answers Kas's post from #19 by saying that her presumption that STINK is a forger is important to the discussion, and would have come out eventually anyway.

21. 9:12PM GMT, November 7th, STINK says that he is not a Forger, and asks why he would reveal himself this early.

 

Bullet points with the contributor in parentheses are alleged and unverifiable except by both people in the PM conversation.

 

This is accurate up to here, and yes, I know that there are a few more. I've already read them, but I have to go eat dinner now. More analysis/completion of list to follow after munchies.

[Creccio he/him]

Hai friends,

 

Mail did claim to me, I however, did not reveal his identity and I was holding conversation with about 10+ players, there is no way the traitors would pin him down based on that.

 

From what I gather only Wilson and Stink would use that information for harm measures...

 

Of those 2 I vote for... Stink

 

You are just.... i dont even know, i cant read you and either you or someone else has lied to me on PMs, so I am casting a vote on you.

 

Of all my suspicions you were not even that high, but the joy showed is something to be noted... Also, why would a forger claim to you this early? Or... do you know of a forger because they are on your team?

 

Explain your loyalty to us

[queensteph she/her]

Creccio, on 07 Nov 2015 - 4:40 PM, said:

Hai friends,

Mail did claim to me, I however, did not reveal his identity and I was holding conversation with about 10+ players, there is no way the traitors would pin him down based on that.

From what I gather only Wilson and Stink would use that information for harm measures...

Of those 2 I vote for... Stink

You are just.... i dont even know, i cant read you and either you or someone else has lied to me on PMs, so I am casting a vote on you.

Of all my suspicions you were not even that high, but the joy showed is something to be noted... Also, why would a forger claim to you this early? Or... do you know of a forger because they are on your team?

Explain your loyalty to us

Boldness mine.

You say this as though those are the only 2 options, but Stink could be a Kandra (whether a loyal or a traitor) and could have found a forger by scanning him on D1. I'm not trying to defend stink, but I do think it's wise to view all of the options before condemning someone.

Stink did say that no one had claimed to him until Wilson told him of Mail, so how could he have already had a forger claim to him? Unless I misread something than that doesn't make sense. So it makes more since that either 1. He's a Kandra. 2. He's an eliminator and they have a kandra on their team who found a forger. 3. He's just lying about knowing a forger.

Edited to not double post:

@Wilson Why did you relay what you had learned [in your PM with Stink] to Kipper?

Edited November 7, 2015 by queensteph

[STINK he/him]

EDIT: Queen, I explained in an earlier post but I'll say it again. The roleclaim from Wilson about Maw was the first one I could speak about at the time, as if I talked about it too much then something might've happened to me, but also because I was helping the Forger. Also, it was the first roleclaim to actually help me try and piece some information together, though it doesn't matter now that he is dead and all you people want me dead.

 

 

I never knew being unreadable would be so evil, but I don't really get these questions of suspicions. 

 

Someone (apparently the only one) trusted me and told me they were a forger. 

I was being nice, and said 'I got nothing better to do, so let me ask around for you.' 

I asked around, did this and that by asking if people had a role and such.

I was informed that someone had been spreading rumors about me and my role.

They denied doing so ( so one of those two is lying, why don't we look at them?)

I gave the Forger a list of who actually said either 'yes' or 'I could be forged' to the Forger, with some names taken out due to them either not being as good or the rest or simply just not.

Forger was all like 'Coolio! Thanks!' 

NOTE: This whole time no-one other than the Forger had told me a role other than No Powers.

Wilson tells me that Maw could be forged and <it's in another post> so I conclude that he is a Hemalurgist.

Wilson says 'yes, he is' in a nutshell.

I go 'Woohoo! An actual roleclaim! Even if it isn't from the actual person.'

Wilson then is like 'This enthusiasm is too much!'

I went 'Okay then, I'll calm down.'

Wilson was all like 'What an evil thing to do! I just can't read you!'  

I then made up some guide thing to how to be un-readable. 

 

I'm happy to name names. Would you guys like that?

Edited November 7, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[little wilson she/her]

 

Loyal motives: Could have been trying to shift suspicion onto Wilson because either they have a reason to believe she's an eliminator, or they were trying to shift they suspicion away from someone else that they know to be good.

Emphasis mine.

 

This was the first night. The kandra were doing their first scan, and the Surgebinder could not have possibly known the results of any of those scans. There is no one who the Surgebinder could absolutely know for a fact was good. It is impossible. Now at least one kandra knows the alignment of a player, so that's a possibility from this point forward. But for last night, it was not.

 

If the Surgebinder is Loyal, they're playing around, making a joke. Not much more to it than that.

 

I'm also going to vote for Stink. Was going to do that in my last post, but forgot. He asked me about my role at exactly 24 hours into the turn, which means that the Forger who he claims to be in contact with talked to him, and felt comfortable enough to share his role in less than 24 hours of talking. Probably with less than 12 hours of talking, since Stink is British, and there are only a few other British players, so the odds are high that his Forger contact is from a rather different timezone than him, and they had to work around that time difference. While it's possible that someone could've trusted Stink enough in that limited amount of communication to roleclaim an important role like that to him, I find it rather unlikely. I think it's far more likely that Stink is an eliminator and his contact is his teammate.

 

 

@Wilson Why did you relay what you had learned [in your PM with Stink] to Kipper?

 

Because I trust Kipper and someone needed to know.

 

Also, in response to your comment about the kandra scanning during the day, they cannot. They can only scan at night: 

• Kandra - By hiding their true form with synthetic skin from the medbay and treading lightly, Kandra are able to use their Mimicry to go unnoticed by almost everyone, to discover anything suspicious on ship. They can use this ability to discover one player’s Alignment or Role each Night.

[STINK he/him]

It's really mean that you all think that no-one would trust me. I don't go accusing people of doing that. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So I was looking back on the Day 1 lynch, specifically around when BB was getting voted for. I have already explained what I thought of the Shallan incident, and I think that the bandwagon on BB is of more interest. Now, I had a reason for voting for BB, but it was really more of a search for an explanation (which I don't think we have gotten yet). So I am a bit confused as to why so many people followed my example. Adavantos makes sense, since he was up for the lynch at that point and generally people don't want themselves killed except very rarely to prevent a tie vote. Two people (Mailliw and STINK) voted because of feruchemists. That is a really poor disguise for bandwagoning. Many people brought up that we get the same or similar amounts of info from the eliminators using a feruchemist to decide the lynch as we do from deciding ourselves.

 

And now that I voted for STINK, I would like to point out to Creccio that STINK generally plays that way. Now, I personally think that being hard to read is unhelpful for the village. If STINK was a player that is known to come out with a large analysis later in the game then his being confusing now would make a little more sense. But basically what I'm trying to say is that STINK is just being STINK, and (unfortunately, in my opinion) that isn't enough reason to vote for him I think.

 

Edit: Woah! What just happened? Ok, let it be known that I am going to not vote right now, because I don't want people to get in the mindset that the lynch is decided and we need to stop feruchemists again. But If the cycle ended right now then my vote would be on STINK 100%

Edited November 7, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[STINK he/him]

I voted to make a tie. I explained that.

[Creccio he/him]

Boldness mine.

You say this as though those are the only 2 options, but Stink could be a Kandra (whether a loyal or a traitor) and could have found a forger by scanning him on D1. I'm not trying to defend stink, but I do think it's wise to view all of the options before condemning someone.

Stink did say that no one had claimed to him until Wilson told him of Mail, so how could he have already had a forger claim to him? Unless I misread something than that doesn't make sense. So it makes more since that either 1. He's a Kandra. 2. He's an eliminator and they have a kandra on their team who found a forger. 3. He's just lying about knowing a forger.

Edited to not double post:

@Wilson Why did you relay what you had learned [in your PM with Stink] to Kipper?

 

What loyal Kandra would scan for role when they can scan for alignment, build trust and just ask for role?

 

Kandras scanning for role just make me be even more suspicious.

 

And even more, No kandra could have known anything by the end of day 1. He is NOT a kandra.

 

Again, im perturbed by why a FORGER this early would trust  anyone and come out truthfully to you. That person is either

 

A) Lying

B )Too trusting

C) Your teammate

 

@Araris

 

Oh, I know and thats why i am so confused as to why anyone would claim forger so early to him

Edited November 7, 2015 by Creccio

[STINK he/him]

If they are lying, then we'll find out when the person who was supposed to be forged either says he was or he wasn't. 

If they are too trusting, then oh no! He trusted STINK!

If they are my teammate, then they're loyal, so it doesn't really apply

[Creccio he/him]

If they are lying, then we'll find out when the person who was supposed to be forged either says he was or he wasn't. 

If they are too trusting, then oh no! He trusted STINK!

If they are my teammate, then they're loyal, so it doesn't really apply

 

Who was supposed to be? i mean.. let them come out and call them out

I would doubt people trusting anyone at this point, not just you.

We dont know that, you are as much traitor as the next. Actually even more after our pm debacle

Edited November 7, 2015 by Creccio

[little wilson she/her]

It's really mean that you all think that no-one would trust me. I don't go accusing people of doing that. 

 

It's not that no one would trust you. It's that people have no reason to trust pretty much anyone 24 hours into the first turn with PM communication. Roleclaiming to DC is one thing (though I think all the non-powered and any non-Hemalurgists who claimed to him made a mistake because he's going to subvert, and there's a chance he just did so all those identities will go to the eliminators). Roleclaiming to Adavantos is also one thing. He'd put himself in a position where if people felt they needed to roleclaim, he was the natural person to go to. You are not, Stink. Not because it's you, but because you didn't do anything particularly trustworthy on the first day to warrant people going to you. This is why I'm skeptical of someone having roleclaimed legitimately to you in the first 24 hours of the night.

[STINK he/him]

They didn't roleclaim to me immediately of course, but even if he was lying as a Forger it seems we've managed to make a point about PMs, and who to claim to or more importantly who that person will spread the information to without telling you, which is rude. 

[Creccio he/him]

Then when?

 

Why did he trust you to say to you he is a forger and why did you believe him...?

 

These are natural questions with answers, let us know

[STINK he/him]

When? I can't be too specific, as we know of at least one person who collects timings accurately and can do things with that information. I will say that it was after I had to defend myself from being accused of too many PMs in N1. 

 

Why did she trust me? That is information that could lead to their identity being revealed, which I won't do.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

 

The chances of the feruchemist actually doing something (if there) are probably low but a village feruchemist might decide to get rid of Ada so Bridge Boy. I'm sorry it had to be this way.

This is the post I am referring to. It doesn't appear that you were  trying to cause a tie, but rather trying to get far away from one.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Araris Valerian

[STINK he/him]

Oh yeah that, well that was when Shallan wasn't being randomly killed so it was either Ada or BB, and I trusted Ada more so I voted for BB.

I didn't retract it because we were going for that tie thing at the end of the cycle.

[queensteph she/her]

Because I trust Kipper and someone needed to know.

 

Also, in response to your comment about the kandra scanning during the day, they cannot. They can only scan at night: 

 

1. I agree that someone needed to know, But why did you trust him? Do you actually have any reason to not suspect him as an Eliminator? or are you just trusting your gut? 

2. My mistake, I was thinking Kandra scanned during the day.

What loyal Kandra would scan for role when they can scan for alignment, build trust and just ask for role?

 

Kandras scanning for role just make me be even more suspicious.

 

And even more, No kandra could have known anything by the end of day 1. He is NOT a kandra.

I agree that they should be scanning for alignment, but they have control over what they want to do so you can't rule out that they'll scan for roles. Referring to what I marked in bold lettering, I have explained in the section above^

[STINK he/him]

Wilson and Kipper have a weird PM thing that happens every game. 

[little wilson she/her]

1. I agree that someone needed to know, But why did you trust him? Do you actually have any reason to not suspect him as an Eliminator? or are you just trusting your gut? 

 

I have my reasons and while it started as gut at the beginning of the night turn, it solidified with more that I learned. I have fairly compelling evidence that I can trust Kipper, but it's not the kind of thing I'm going to put here. When this happened, he was the logical choice for me to go to since out of the people that I trust, he was the one who will actually discuss and try to work things out. Kas just tells me "No! Don't give me information! I don't need to know that!"

[STINK he/him]

So you say that you trust Kipper because of what was gut then turned into evidence, so couldn't the same apply to the Forger? You don't know what went on in our PM as 'it's not the kind of thing I'm going to put here'.

 

You're all accusing me for something? But that something isn't exactly clear.

Edited November 8, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Kasimir he/him]

I have my reasons and while it started as gut at the beginning of the night turn, it solidified with more that I learned. I have fairly compelling evidence that I can trust Kipper, but it's not the kind of thing I'm going to put here. When this happened, he was the logical choice for me to go to since out of the people that I trust, he was the one who will actually discuss and try to work things out. Kas just tells me "No! Don't give me information! I don't need to know that!"

Yep, that's me: Poster-boy for operational security and need-to-know basis since 2015

#consistentKasisconsistent #consistencyisaphilosophicalvirtue #paranoidKasisparanoid

[Elbereth she/her]

3. Elbereth/PK

I'm not fond of her endorsement of PK's plan because suspicions should really be shared, and with hopefully more people than the HI! The HI is a very bad locus to leave suspicions with. By extension, I'd like to ask PK the same question. [This might also potentially reflect on Bridge Boy, as while we cannot appeal to RL relationships, it certainly is a driver behind kills or attempted ones at times, e.g. Cessie going after Wilson in LG2. Granted, PK did not go after Bridge Boy in MR7, but they had no kill ability (initially) and past that point, it stopped mattering.]

I forgot to say this earlier, probably because I could read but not post when you refuted his plan initially. I originally thought it would be a great idea, because it was something that the HI couldn't really use once he turned, and before that he could put together several people's suspcions. I no longer think that, mostly because you said "PUT YOUR SUSPICIONS IN THREAD" and I realized that that was the obvious thing to do. Also, I realized that the HI could actually use thos suspicions, namely to kill anyone who had gotten too close (but hadn't put their suspicions in thread, so no one knew that they had been so close). I should have thought this through a little more carefully. Sorry.

On another note, is DeathClutch around to post how many Hemalurgists he contacted? One already died, obviously, which is worrying.

...Because I'm hungry and I would like to eat a steak...? Seriously, dude. Can a guy not be hungry on this thread anymore without being called out for it?

On Day Shift 1, Cow decided that my reminding people to follow PM safety was rather "needless", and well...I'll let y'all read the rest for yourselves.

I am pointing out, rather ironically, that clearly, this was not the case. Considering that I heard of a bunch of Mistborn outing themselves as well (note: I do not know who; I was merely told that they had), one can possibly understand my frustration, as well as the great desire to ironically point out that in light of what this ship is doing, it clearly was neither convention nor needless.

P.S. If I'm speaking a bit harshly from frustration, sorry guys. Trying not to be Aggro!Kas or No Prisoners!Kas here :/ But I am honestly deeply frustrated with the ease and alacrity with which this ship has trusted on Day One.

Edit: Kipper, this is why I should be banned from posting at 5:09AM... >> Thanks man

  

A bunch of Mistborn? How many Mistborn can there really be? I assumed one (probably from previous RL games where there only was one), but I suppose two is possible. Obviously neither (if there are two) are on the side of the eliminators, otherwise two people would have died last night. Right? But even if there were two good Mistborn, wouldn't at least one of them have killed someone last night? Adavantos even asked them to kill him or Bridge Boy.

Basically, I'm confused.