Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Lopen, I shall respond at greater length this evening, but for now will just say that my absence this cycle is due to it being Remembrance Sunday, and preparing for a family gathering.

[STINK he/him]

In the interest of spreading knowledge to everyone, here is what Creccio told me about it. 

 

'I was reading the thread and what Kipper had posted and realized that if there was a tie on D1, it only tells us conditional knowledge which isn't even reliable. Feruchemists could've just done their thing which doesn't tell us much.' 

[Creccio he/him]

In the interest of spreading knowledge to everyone, here is what Creccio told me about it. 

 

'I was reading the thread and what Kipper had posted and realized that if there was a tie on D1, it only tells us conditional knowledge which isn't even reliable. Feruchemists could've just done their thing which doesn't tell us much.' 

 

Indeed... >_<

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[Amanuensis he/him]

I still have to comb through everything that has occurred in my absence in order to compose one of my usual posts but, before I do I want to add a few things relevant to the conversation at hand and in response to Kaid and Kasimir's question regarding one of the comments I made prior to the last turn's end.

 

First, unfortunately I cannot reveal the "method to my madness" because the traitors decided to kill Mail instead of me. If it was my death in the write-up rather than his you would all understand what I was referring to.

 

Second, Stink approached me about whether or not I wanted to be a Kandra. Of course my immediate reaction was "are you trying to tell me you're a Forger?" He denied he was but said he knew one. I read it as yes I am but I don't want to commit myself to that answer in case you are evil. Given that the person I asked for you to have forged has not yet posted the code word I gave him if it succeeded, then I am going to go ahead and assume it failed until he informs me otherwise. This could mean several different things; A: Stink lied about being / knowing a Forger just to get information out of people or B: Stink lied to me about who he was going to have Forged or C: His forge failed and another's succeeded, meaning the Kandra could now be in the traitors hands if he is innocent.

 

Third, Stink also sent me a PM being excited about having finally obtained the identity of a Hemalurgist. I bribed the information out of him by telling him another player's role - or at least, what they had been hinting at without ever admitting it. For the record I didn't believe that it was even true and strongly suspect that player to be a traitor, anyway. With that being said, Stink - I would appreciate it if you continued to keep this information a secret, as I still have plans in the works to catch whether or not they were being honest / if they are in fact evil. In other words, I also was aware of the fact that Mail claimed Hemalurgist, so everyone should consider me on their list of who it was that ordered his death.

 

The fact that Stink didn't say this himself makes me lean in the direction of him being framed by whoever told him this information. Unless he's playing a long con on me with hopes that I would come to his defense, I see no other motive for why to cast suspicion onto another player (whose already been on the hot seat, in my case) which might swing the vote away from him.

 

If I'm not mistaken, it was Wilson who told Stink Mail's role. Why would any loyalist in their right mind tell a player that they suspect to be a traitor the identity of a Hemalurgist, of all the roles? If it turns out they are evil and that person then dies, sure you can then be certain that he's evil, but in the end the traitors are one step closer to having the HI on their side. It would have been infinitely more wise a choice to inform him that a player that you strongly believe to be roleless is a Hemalurgist. I cannot fathom why Wilson of all players would not have done this instead. She's smart enough to reason how terrible an idea that is and would never have done it unless she was a traitor herself and planned to get another innocent lynched. That makes much more sense to me, considering the level of deceit and manipulation that it requires, which matches Wilson's traits significantly better than a horrible mistake.

 

With two loyalists now dead that means we have 16 full cycles until the traitors can simply overpower us - assuming that the only reason anyone dies is from their kill (we don't lynch anybody and no Mistborns make a kill). If we decide to lynch Stink today and he turns out to be good, than that number will drop to 14 at the start of the next cycle. I ask that all players remove their votes and the Kandra scans Stink tonight to confirm. I have said this before and I will say it again, just because we have the power to kill someone doesn't mean we should. If I didn't have the above reasons to trust Stink and doubt Wilson I would support his death, but unfortunately in this situation there are way too many possibilities that I am not willing to condemn another player to death.

 

 

 

EDIT: Ninja'd by Bort and beyond. What Creccio told me was the same thing that Stink said.

Edited November 8, 2015 by Adavantos

[STINK he/him]

I'm debating whether to Roleclaim or not. Thoughts everyone? 

 

EDIT: Also Creccio, I'm not going to be particularly nice to anyone this cycle, don't forget that we as a town all know by your admittance that Mailliw claimed to you first, and that you had multiple PMs open with others. You then say that only Me and Wilson would use that info for hamful measures? Why would you not? You also then admit that I wasn't high on your suspicion list, but me expressing joy at getting a role makes me evil. You could be a traitor yourself, joining in with Wilson and Kipper to get me killed, as it is convinient, is it not? 

Edited November 8, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Amanuensis he/him]

I am against role claiming, especially in public. Of course I want people to role claim to me via PM because I'm the only player I know with 100% certainty is good and it allows me to use that knowledge to find the traitors, but generally it is a very poor idea.

Edited November 8, 2015 by Adavantos

[Creccio he/him]

Even though I would love to follow Adavantos (In the end, I am joining the Adavantos fan club created by Kipper...) I have to disagree. I bleieve peace IS a good option, and it IS probably what I am going to go at the end, but if we just have no threat of death no discussion will be had and i dont think asking for everyone every piece of information on the thread is a sensible thing.

 

The only ones that knew that Mail was a hemalurgist were:

 

Stink

Ada

Me

 Kipper

Wilson

(let me know if i forgot someone)

 

One or more of the above HAVE to be traitors and it is just the nature of this kill.

 

He died n1 MR9 and the only reason that can be plausible in my head right now for him to also die n1 this game is that the traitors knew and win conditions come before friendship and fun.

 

So please, even if we do remove the votes for Stink, ask us questions and instigate us, we need to know who did it.  Let the games begin. Our greatest weapon is discussion and our greatest restriction time, let use both wisely.

 

EDIT:

 

@Stink I said you two because i believe the others on the list more than Wilson and you. Do i think Ada and Kipper might be bad? yes, might be a thing, thats why i want you guys to bombard us with question and logics and what not. 

 

You weren't high on the list...until Mail died and it is now known who know of the info only mail should have had, aka his role, now, its on the loyals to see who of us 5 is lying.

 

I know i myself wont use it to harm because, clearly, i know i am loyal and have no say on traitors action. The same you know you wont use it because you are loyal or how Ada knows he is loyal. That argument can be made by anyone and hold some ground.

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[STINK he/him]

Kipper created the fan club? When did this happen? 

[Creccio he/him]

Kipper created the fan club? When did this happen? 

 

Apparently he built a statue to worship Adavantos and I am just joining in with popcorn and some robes to hide our identities... want to join?

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[STINK he/him]

When did he build a statue? I need to know the timing of this to contend with him other the position of leadership.

[Creccio he/him]

I would say anywhere from 15-30 hours ago

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[STINK he/him]

I made the fanclub in QF10! Kipper can be the second-in-command if he wants it.

 

For all those that think it isn't official, you can see by my posts that I was leading the fanclub then, and wasn't aware that others were joining! Kipper has tried to steal command from me!

Edited November 8, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Kasimir he/him]

With two loyalists now dead that means we have 16 full cycles until the traitors can simply overpower us - assuming that the only reason anyone dies is from their kill (we don't lynch anybody and no Mistborns make a kill). If we decide to lynch Stink today and he turns out to be good, than that number will drop to 14 at the start of the next cycle. I ask that all players remove their votes and the Kandra scans Stink tonight to confirm. I have said this before and I will say it again, just because we have the power to kill someone doesn't mean we should. If I didn't have the above reasons to trust Stink and doubt Wilson I would support his death, but unfortunately in this situation there are way too many possibilities that I am not willing to condemn another player to death.

While I'm fine with lynching someone else today, my issue is with getting the Kandra to scan STINK. (Assuming, of course, we have another or a Forged Kandra.) As I see it, STINK hasn't been particularly helpful, though perhaps he has been behind the scenes. Setting aside the debate on whether or not we should take him out, it would seem to me that given all the information you've been amassing, I'd almost just like to be really certain we've trusted the correct person and have the Kandra scan you. (If they haven't already done so.) As I've said in the PMs, you're the player I trust the most in this game, but people can be mistaken. I'm awfully bad at mindgames, so I don't dare to go 100% on my instincts. (Which probably explains why I haven't roleclaimed to you, apart from King's Wit.)

Or scan Wilson, since she's a major suspect as well in the Maili debacle. At the end of the day, my qualms are more with how suboptimal it seems, having the Kandra clear STINK, when there are more strategic targets around. (For that matter, why not scan Bridge Boy, considering how he's become one of the lynchpins of this web of connections from the previous cycle? There are other options IMO, and many of them seem more appealing.)

 

I am against role claiming, especially in public. Of course I want people to role claim to me via PM because I'm the only player I know with 100% certainty is good and it allows me to use that knowledge to find the traitors, but generally it is a very poor idea.

I'm sorry for roleclaiming Aiel in public :/ I thought it'd be okay, since I live in the Thricefold Land, and all. And apparently am a badchull warrior because of that. And one of the People of the Dragon. And... I should've known better. *bows head in shame*

-

I'd also like to ask publicly for some advice about how to handle things, if I do have one or two suspicions, but can't actually reveal them because doing so would infringe the Fair Play rules.

[Creccio he/him]

While I'm fine with lynching someone else today, my issue is with getting the Kandra to scan STINK. (Assuming, of course, we have another or a Forged Kandra.) As I see it, STINK hasn't been particularly helpful, though perhaps he has been behind the scenes. Setting aside the debate on whether or not we should take him out, it would seem to me that given all the information you've been amassing, I'd almost just like to be really certain we've trusted the correct person and have the Kandra scan you. (If they haven't already done so.) As I've said in the PMs, you're the player I trust the most in this game, but people can be mistaken. I'm awfully bad at mindgames, so I don't dare to go 100% on my instincts. (Which probably explains why I haven't roleclaimed to you, apart from King's Wit.)

Or scan Wilson, since she's a major suspect as well in the Maili debacle. At the end of the day, my qualms are more with how suboptimal it seems, having the Kandra clear STINK, when there are more strategic targets around. (For that matter, why not scan Bridge Boy, considering how he's become one of the lynchpins of this web of connections from the previous cycle? There are other options IMO, and many of them seem more appealing.)

 

I'm sorry for roleclaiming Aiel in public :/ I thought it'd be okay, since I live in the Thricefold Land, and all. And apparently am a badchull warrior because of that. And one of the People of the Dragon. And... I should've known better. *bows head in shame*

-

I'd also like to ask publicly for some advice about how to handle things, if I do have one or two suspicions, but can't actually reveal them because doing so would infringe the Fair Play rules.

 

Infringe fair play...what? how? is that even a thing? Maybe... uhh... pm them and hope it works? try to get info and prove them in thread? die sad and in despair because of rules?

 

>_> 

>_>

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[Guest]

Apparently he built a statue to worship Adavantos and I am just joining in with popcorn and some robes to hide our identities... want to join?

Just for the knowledge of the thread, I said nothing about popcorn and/or robes.

Edit: Will say more after church >>

Edited November 8, 2015 by Guest

[Amanuensis he/him]

All banter aside, I disagree with two points made by Creccio.

 

Even though I would love to follow Adavantos (In the end, I am joining the Adavantos fan club created by Kipper...) I have to disagree. I bleieve peace IS a good option, and it IS probably what I am going to go at the end, but if we just have no threat of death no discussion will be had and i dont think asking for everyone every piece of information on the thread is a sensible thing.

Emphasis mine. We have plenty to discuss even without the threat of death. That really only applies to the first day when there is no info to work with.

 

Stink

Ada

Me

 Kipper

Wilson

(let me know if i forgot someone)

 

One or more of the above HAVE to be traitors and it is just the nature of this kill.

One or more of the above DON'T HAVE to be traitors. The fact that Mail revealed to anyone at all means he could have revealed to someone else who decided to keep this information to themselves so that they wouldn't be implicated after his death. Mail didn't even have to admit it, for in retrospect I myself could have figured it out from a hint he dropped in our PM. Same could be true for anyone else he was talking with. Also, we already know Wilson told two players, whose to say she didn't tell anyone else? I don't think she told anyone beyond them (except the traitor doc, if I'm right), but the possibility still exists for all of us.

 

@Stink, why didn't you tell everyone you told me Mail's role?

Edited November 8, 2015 by Adavantos

[Creccio he/him]

All banter aside, I disagree with two points made by Creccio.

 

Emphasis mine. We have plenty to discuss even without the threat of death. That really only applies to the first day when there is no info to work with.

 

One or more of the above DON'T HAVE to be traitors. The fact that Mail revealed to anyone at all means he could have revealed to someone else who decided to keep this information to themselves so that they wouldn't be implicated after his death. Mail didn't even have to admit it, for in retrospect I myself could have figured it out from a hint he dropped in our PM. Same could be true for anyone else he was talking with. Also, we already know Wilson told two players, whose to say she didn't tell anyone else? I don't think she told anyone beyond them (except the traitor doc, if I'm right), but the possibility still exists for all of us.

 

@Stink, why didn't you tell everyone you told me Mail's role?

 

Then... what do you think should be the first order of business? What matter should we tackle first.

[STINK he/him]

Ada, I wanted to see what you would do.

[RippleGylf she/her]

EDIT: Ripple, that's quite a nice poem! Did you make it up?

 

No, I did not make it up. It's this song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOMQxVtbkik I was going to post it along with the rp, but I didn't have the time to find it.

 

(Also Ripple: I actually squee'd when I read your post: I actually sung that song for a singing exam this year   )

I once sung it for a talent show.  

[Kasimir he/him]

Then... what do you think should be the first order of business? What matter should we tackle first.

We can do all the things, you know. Maili's death was one lead. It isn't our only one. We still have yet to make sense of the information from the previous day, as I've already said. Remember all the discussion over the BB-Shallan lynch race? Are you, then, convinced by Bort? What do you think of Bridge Boy? What do you think of the discussion that has emerged since then? (Notice that by focusing on the emergent discussion, we are still taking a step back from focusing on hunting down the Traitor among those who knew of Maili's role.)

We can still discuss strategy: we can consider possibilities. For instance, I have a suggestion, and that is this: all Crew Surgebinders should send something to be put up in the next day's write-up. Repeat, attention all Crew, all Crew, Surgebinders should send something to be put in the next day's write-up, over.

(Sorry, just had to say that >>)

Here's my reasoning: sure, there's no guarantee among them won't be a Traitor Surgebinder. But what does matter is that it gives people a way of identifying themselves. If we'd like PMs to stay there, or if we don't really want to realise/end up lynching a Crew Surgebinder by mistake, one of the ways they can identify themselves is by explaining a secret message embedded in their anonymous write-up message that only they know. I'd urge them to be careful about it, as I inadvertently gave away my own identity in...I think it was QF6? Well, when I did that. But at the same time, it's very useful as they could save their lives that way. Maili often did that when he was able to anonymously post messages in the write-up.

 

The point that I believe Adavantos is trying to make, and well, if he isn't trying to make it, I've certainly said it enough times and will make it again:

 

We shouldn't tunnel. We've focused on finding the Traitor among that crowd, and that's one promising line of reasoning. But we can't stall there. Do you remember how Deathclutch was so utterly convinced that Kipper just had to be a Traitor and went for him like a berserker? What happened after that?

 

Tunnelling is bad. The one piece of advice I always retain from Meta is reminding me to keep my suspicions fluid, because I definitely suffer from a tendency to lock-in, myself, and to not stop until my target is lynched. Well, we've heard from those involved. I at least am going to think further on the issue, take a step back, and try to analyse the matter from different angles.

 

Furthermore, yes. I have considered the possibility that there were other reasons behind Maili's death. It could, funny enough, even have been because Maili voiced suspicions to the wrong person. It could have been a fear kill. And as Adavantos pointed out, he is correct to have noted that Maili could've spoken to someone else who isn't stepping up because they're a Traitor. My initial reason--and entire point--of asking for a map of Maili's communications isn't just because we want to see where potential leaks could've come from. It's because we want to compare this to/with maps of where information has generally been flowing in the Crew.

 

Maybe we can't do anything about it now. But what happens when we get a fuller map in future and start noticing gaps? I think tracing down those gaps would give us a useful avenue of reasoning. So yes, I'm willing to take a step back and consider things again, for now.

[Creccio he/him]

Lets do ALL the things.

 

Just to get this out there Kas, What do you think of both BB and Bort and their action up until now?

 

EDIT: I am going to go back and read their post, its like 6ish am or something over here so i might not come back for a while

Edited November 8, 2015 by Creccio

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ada, I wanted to see what you would do.

 

You don't have to share, but what did you learn?

 

Also, Wilson, I know you've been on the thread since I called you out. Can you please respond?

[STINK he/him]

Well mostly it's just another form of a test, so that if I did end up dying and everyone was like 'He was the only one of the 4 that we could lynch' then just before I died I'd be like 'Ada knew it too so he's playing with you all' but you said you knew about it as soon(ish) as you came online and started posting. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

That's what I thought. A tactic that would only help a loyalist. Granted, it could have been your plan to reveal this as a defense for being good to begin with and you really are just toying with me, but that's super conditional - enough that I doubt you would do it as a traitor. Just another reason for me to believe Wilson is the one whose evil between the two of you, but I still haven't ruled out Kipper. Waiting on a specific word from a Kandra *cough cough* so I can know if he scanned evil or not.

[STINK he/him]

Well I'm not gonna trust everyone 100% yet, would I? You guys are all blowing stuff out of proportion.

 

EDIT: Also, where did the online people go?

 

EDIT2: So Ada, how do you think your fanclub should be run?

Edited November 8, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK