Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Elithanathile he/him]

Thanks for posting PK, and that plan's not too bad, but I'll probably leave my vote there for now. I want to vote for someone, apparently I don't have any suspicions, and it's not going to get you lynched. I hope it's comfy, 'cause it's going to be there for a little.

[queensteph she/her]

I haven't had a good time to post up until now, so please forgive my past inactivity!

 

Okay so, my thoughts on the HI-

I don't see how it could be a good or bad thing for the Hemalurgists to reveal themselves to the HI because even though the HI could tell us their numbers we still can't know how much time we could possibly have before the HI could turn seeing as how we don't know any of the Hemalurgist's alignments. And on the note that all of the Hemalurgists could be eliminators it seems highly unlikely since they are basically roleless and would be of no use to their team. But if they were all Hemalurgists and were in contact with the HI and somehow got linked to an Elantrian it would be a bad thing if the Elantrians protected them because then we wouldn't be able to lynch the eliminators..Just a thought. 

Can someone scan the HI to see their alignment? EDIT: Is the HI confirmed as loyal from the beginning? Because if so my whole argument is invalid.

 

 

Bridge Boy seemed to be the one with the most suspicion on him since he over-reacted to Alvron's joke, but it was only because he didn't view it as a joke only because he hadn't realized the win conditions had changed. He doesn't really seem suspicious at all.

 

Also, Can someone post a tally of who has voted and taken off their votes? It'd be really helpful for those who don't have time to re-read all of the posts. I would do it but I'd probably miss some.

 

I realize most of what I'm saying has already been said, but not by me, so I wanted to show my view of things even if others have had the same view, so that you know I have been paying attention.

 

@Cow "We cannot put faith into this ally, but we CAN put in trust."  While I do agree that he could be profitable, there is so much risk on him that it seems unwise to trust him wholeheartedly. I'm not saying that we shouldn't trust him at all, but what I'm trying to say is that we need to be careful of what information he obtains. 

Edited November 4, 2015 by queensteph

[Arraenae]

 

 

Anyway, I am about to list the players that have posted thus far that I currently suspect of being evil. I am fairly certain that at least one of the players I'm listing is evil, if not more: Creccio, Burnt Spaghetti, Wilson, Mailliw, Araris, Arraenae and Bort.

"Adavantos, why are you suspecting me? As you stated, so far I've 'Use[d] RP to express suspicions of BB and Kas. Call[ed] Kas out for not waiting until he has some sleep to post something.' You've said nothing about why that makes me evil," Rae said. "You're also encouraging us to distrust the HI and to assume that the HI is already conspiring with the traitors. Right now, I feel like you're trying to discuss without meaningfully contributing. You feel the most like a traitor."

 

Edit:remembered how to put in color

Edited November 4, 2015 by Arraenae

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, bother. There have been a load of posts and all I have done so far is to skim them. I haven't picked out anyone too suspicious, but I do think we should definitely aim for a day one lynch, perhaps on an inactive. More on that later tonight because I only have a few minutes to post this now.

 

But the main thing is that there is no reason for the HI to truthfully reveal the number of Hemalurgists. The only use in that would be to let the village know when he has turned, after his win condition has already changed. The HI doesn't want people to know what his alignment is at any point in time, or rather he wants everyone to believe him as part of the village. So if he says 3 hemalurgists and three die, then everyone knows he has swapped teams and can just ignore him. Disclaimer: These were my thoughts last game as the HI

 

Also, I don't think that the HI changing sides is too big of a deal for us (except for the info thing Kas brought up) because every time a hemalurgist dies we can forge a new one to check if his alignment has changed (correct?)

[RippleGylf she/her]

Well, bother. There have been a load of posts and all I have done so far is to skim them. I haven't picked out anyone too suspicious, but I do think we should definitely aim for a day one lynch, perhaps on an inactive. More on that later tonight because I only have a few minutes to post this now.

 

A tad off-topic, but those first two words, combined with your current avatar, nearly made me burst out laughing.

[Elbereth she/her]

So I've been reading this thread every chance I could (which to be fair wasn't very many chances, given that I'm also doing NaNoWriMo and wroking in a play which has opening night tomorrow along with all the normal stuff) since the game started, and I just caught up.

... He went and locked the door to his metals storeroom, popped a chair up against it (he couldn't go too far, in case one of the 'allowed' metalborn needed metals), and pulled out his copy of Way of Kings. He always did like historical fiction...

First off, thanks for this. It made me laugh.

After that post there was a great deal of talk about HI win condition. I never even thought that the HI might turn early. Maybe I'm just a natural optimist?

If someone can give me a good reason why a countdown would help us, please do. But I fail to see the point. It doesn't matter if he's good or if he's evil. Deathclutch is untouchable. All he is good for is a vote and scanning roles, which isn't a unique ability anymore nor one that is particularly useful to the crew. Even if we know he is evil it's not like we can kill him for it. If we want we can turn this into a mayor game and have all the useful roles contact him so he can tell the Elantrians who to protect, the Kandra who to scan, the Forgers who to forge and the Mistborn who to kill. But who here really wants that? Who thinks that would be fun, let alone fair? Unless we do this, I don't see him being confirmed as useful to us in any way other than he's one less loyalist for us to suspect / analyze / accidently lynch.

I think a countdown would be a good thing because knowing Deathclutch is evil would be useful, if only to stop him misdirecting us. Some people (including me) will be mostly trusting him, and it would be bad to continue to do so after he's already turned traitor.

If we don't give the traitors [/font]any reason to connect a player to the HI then they are going to have to rely on their own information gathering skills themselves, which forces them to interact with other players and potentially get caught. Besides, have you already forgotten about what we learned from Dow last round? If we do what I suggest then whether or not he turns relies entirely on pure chance. I am not trying to "sow dissension."

What did we learn from Dow? Was this in LG16a, or LG15, or something else?

The Upshot: Wyrm's perspective on this issue matters. He is our Captain, and the Captain of the ship is judge, jury, executioner, priest, and god knows what else. He is vast, he contains multitudes, etcetera. Oh, and he's a window, apparently.

What?

4. Can the Eliminators trace the Hemalurgists contacting the HI from looking at player activity?

I would actually argue that it is more complicated to do so, particularly when a number of recurring players like to send PMs to each other, and especially when you have multiple 17S tabs open at the same time. Doing so tends to grant an inconsistent result for anyone watching. In fact, though, if this is such a concern, then let's simply stipulate that everyone should leave a tab with the messenger open, so as to further muddy the waters for the Eliminators. Let us all send scores of PMs to muddy the waters.

(emphasis mine) While I understand the reasoning behind this, I don't actually recommend it, just because it would give Wyrm a flooded inbox and tons of work, which I don't want to do to him when he's so kindly GMing us.

I began as a Traitor Feruchemist last round. Wyrm put in my PM a list of all the actions I could take as a Feruchemist. He did the same for every other role that could take an action. The only role that was not simply roleless was the Hemalurgist, which while important can not take any actions. Therefore - not knowing that Wyrm did this for every player who had a role - they were more likely to go to the original thread with the rules list and see what they could do, only to find out they couldn't do anything. Make sense?

But wouldn't he have put in a description for a Hemalurgist as well? He put in one for me, and I was uninvested.

For other peoples reference, the following players have yet to post: Paranoid King, Honey Badger, Shallan, phattemer, polkinghorndb, Elbereth, Elkanah, dowanx, Zed and Biggoron. Of these ten, Shallan and phatt are habitually AFK and dowanx very rarely posts unless he is addressed specifically / voted against.

I'm here now! What does AFK stand for?

With seven player and about 20-25% eliminators you would be unlucky not to guess at least one eliminator if you just used a RNG to decide who you think is guilty.

Also I agree With Deathclutch about Kandras checking for roles. That is not nearly as important as searching for Traitors. It is generally understood that you cannot trust a seeker to be good since the Eliminators always know your role. Also if the Traitors have a Kandra they can just scan your role and say that they scanned both your role and alignment much easier than a loyal Kandra can

(emphasis mine)

I'm pretty sure you meant "Eliminators always know your alignment".

On the topic of terminology I don't understand: What's a RNG?

I think Ada is innocent btw, unless he is trying to meta-game me in which case he is doing a great job. I won't say why but some other people playing this game should know why... and if they don't then good for me and him!

I don't understand this. Why wouldn't you give your reasons for believing someone innocent?

@Stink: There are two reasons why I think Mail should not be lynched today. One has nothing to do with this game, but MR9. Mail was killed N1, therefore I think it unfair not to give him a chance to partake in this game, regardless of his alignment. I make it my personal policy to try and spread out who gets killed at what stages of these games so that everyone has equal opportunity of having fun. Second, I believe Mail is also one of those players who tends to use PMs more often than the thread itself to gather information, whether good or evil. I am suspicious of him for earlier posts, but not nearly as much as some other players, let alone willing to see him get strung up quite yet,

I definitely agree with your first reason. However, the reference to PMs kind of doesn't apply, because it's not night. Did you just forget this, or did you mean something else that I missed?

Gylf was surprised at the amount of conversation surrounding the HI. She believed Hellscythe's robotic assurance that he would remain trustworthy, at least for the moment. However, she saw another flaw in Kipper's relatively foolproof plan. What if a traitor falsely informed the HI that they were a hemalurgist, when in reality, they were not? It would certainly mean that the entire ship would be misinformed and perhaps trust the HI for too long. She didn't want to be a critic; Kipper's plan could work fairly well. However, she didn't want to risk a potential oversight.

I talked about this a little in the previous game. We should leave a margin of error of at least one or two, accounting for any lying eliminators as well as any eliminators who are in fact Hemalurgists. Plus we won't know when a role is forged away, so that increases the margin even more.

That being said, revealing the number of Hemalugists seems like a bad idea.

Can you explain why you think this?

As for the subject of the HI, I feel that while he is our guaranteed ally for now, we should not trust him too much. At the the same time, what use is a definitely loyal crewmember unless we trust him? As a compromise, I suggest that we tell our alignment suspicions to the HI, as that would be of no use to team evil anyway, but the HI may be able to draw connections between the points of evidence. And if team evil throws in some red herring suspicions? All the better, because that is more data the HI can use to draw a pattern.

I really like this idea.

Okay so, my thoughts on the HI-

I don't see how it could be a good or bad thing for the Hemalurgists to reveal themselves to the HI because even though the HI could tell us their numbers we still can't know how much time we could possibly have before the HI could turn seeing as how we don't know any of the Hemalurgist's alignments. And on the note that all of the Hemalurgists could be eliminators it seems highly unlikely since they are basically roleless and would be of no use to their team. But if they were all Hemalurgists and were in contact with the HI and somehow got linked to an Elantrian it would be a bad thing if the Elantrians protected them because then we wouldn't be able to lynch the eliminators..Just a thought.

Can someone scan the HI to see their alignment? EDIT: Is the HI confirmed as loyal from the beginning? Because if so my whole argument is invalid.

(emphasis mine)

This is a very good point, and one I hadn't thought of. It's a point against the Elantrians pming Deathclutch (which I was undecided on already).

Bridge Boy seemed to be the one with the most suspicion on him since he over-reacted to Alvron's joke, but it was only because he didn't view it as a joke only because he hadn't realized the win conditions had changed. He doesn't really seem suspicious at all.

Also, Can someone post a tally of who has voted and taken off their votes? It'd be really helpful for those who don't have time to re-read all of the posts. I would do it but I'd probably miss some.

Here's what I've got (please correct me if I'm wrong):

Adavantos (3): Kipper, Arrenae, Kaid

Paranoid King (1): Bridge Boy

Burnt Spaghetti (1): Deathclutch

Kasimir (1): Clanky

Bridge Boy (1): Bort

There are two points in here that I apparently forgot to quote:

1. Whoever said there might be no loyal hemalurgists.

This is possible and terrifying. I don't know what we can do to figure it out, though.

2. Deathclutch's suggestion of Elantrians PMing him.

I think I'm falling down on the side of "don't do this", mostly because of steph's point. But I'm still uncertain, so I'd like to see more experienced people than me weigh in on it too.

EDIT: Wow, that's long. I shortened the quotes a bit.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Elbereth (Limelleth)

[Paranoid King he/him]

I'm here now! What does AFK stand for?

On the topic of terminology I don't understand: What's a RNG?

AFK: away from keyboard. It just means they're not active.

RNG: random number generator, used when determining roles and alignment. It can also be used to pick a random person out of the list of players.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Paranoid King

[Elkanah he/him]

phwew I finally caught up with the conversation. So far I've had a lot of thoughts that have been covered. Those have been shared so I won't waste our time. I like the idea of a countdown so we know how long we have before the HI turns, but also we need someone we can trust receiving the intel the HI gives us while we still trust him. I'm not sure how to make that work though. If we don't have someone we trust receiving the roles the HI finds out, the HI may as well start off evil for all the good his checking power does us.

 

I'm also open to corrections. Please if I have misspoken or left something out let me know.

 

Also Thank you Elbereth for the vote tally

Edited November 5, 2015 by Elkanah

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

I think I'm falling down on the side of "don't do this", mostly because of steph's point. But I'm still uncertain, so I'd like to see more experienced people than me weigh in on it too.

According to my data, Elantrians can not prevent a lynch, only Eliminator kills. Your argument is invalid. Please try again.

 

END OF LINE.

[queensteph she/her]

DeathClutch19, on 04 Nov 2015 - 7:07 PM, said:

According to my data, Elantrians can not prevent a lynch, only Eliminator kills. Your argument is invalid. Please try again.

END OF LINE.

Oh, really? I didn't know that, I thought that they could prevent any kind of kills because the description says,

Elantrian - Elantrians are versatile and powerful, but aboard the ship, their role is to act as the doctor and medic. An Elantrian is able to use the AonDor to heal people of any injuries they may have, and so can protect a player of their choice each Night. This includes themselves. A player saved in this way will be revealed in the writeup.

But am I wrong?

Edited November 5, 2015 by queensteph

[little wilson she/her]

It's only for the night. The lynch happens during the day.

[queensteph she/her]

@wilson Ohhh yeah, thanks! I was getting confused! Thanks for clearing that up. 

[Creccio he/him]

@wilson Ohhh yeah, thanks! I was getting confused! Thanks for clearing that up. 

 

If you ever have more questions dont be afraid to PM Wyrm, our moderator or simply ask we are more than glad to help you

Edited November 5, 2015 by Creccio

[+Slowswift]

I'm of the same opinion as Wilson. I've also been looking at BB. But I also suspected him last time we ran this game and that didn't turn out accurate, so I'm going to hold off on a vote, but I'd like to hear from Kas, when he gets time, Burnt, and Lopen. I personally don't care too much if all the Hemalurgists report to the HI, but I think it's best if they do. The problem is that there very well could be a Traitor one.

How did I even downvote this I wasn't even trying to read this thread?

[little wilson she/her]

How did I even downvote this I wasn't even trying to read this thread?

 

Fixed.

[+Slowswift]

Fixed.

Thanks!

[Elbereth she/her]

AFK: away from keyboard. It just means they're not active.

RNG: random number generator, used when determining roles and alignment. It can also be used to pick a random person out of the list of players.

Thanks!

Also, I had a thought and a question about this plan, both about Forging. I see three scenarios involving Forging:

1) A Forger Forges someone to be a Hemalurgist. If so:

a ) The HI is now guilty- it seems fairly obvious what to do. Tell the thread and make sure you get a kandra confirming your alignment and an elantrian protecting you that night.

b ) The HI is still innocent. What do you do then? Do you tell the HI, so he can include it in his count? I can see problems with this (it's a great tactic for Evil!HI to make us think he's still good), but it might be good. I don't know. Ideas?

2) You are a Hemalurgist, and you are Forged to be something else. This is the potential problem.

a ) If you were the last loyal Hemalurgist, you definitely do not want to PM the HI that you've been Forged (in case someone good Forged you by accident).

b ) But if there was another Hemalurgist left, you would want to PM the HI to make sure the count's updated.

I guess that was four scenarios. Sorry.

EDIT: I forgot that a), , c) happened.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Elbereth (Limelleth)

[phattemer]

Well, I just read through the thread, and am thoroughly confused. So we talked about the HI(L 9000. that does not make me want to trust it), and then what? Personally, I support a day 1 lynch, but I have no idea whom we should pick. I also detest the idea of a Contribution Crusade lunch day 1. They remind me a bit of the (WoT)

Whitecloaks

. But for now I will drop a vote on Shallan, because it amuses me.

[Guest]

Gylf was surprised at the amount of conversation surrounding the HI. She believed Hellscythe's robotic assurance that he would remain trustworthy, at least for the moment. However, she saw another flaw in Kipper's relatively foolproof plan. What if a traitor falsely informed the HI that they were a hemalurgist, when in reality, they were not? It would certainly mean that the entire ship would be misinformed and perhaps trust the HI for too long. She didn't want to be a critic; Kipper's plan could work fairly well. However, she didn't want to risk a potential oversight.

As I said, it would be an approximation. If one Eliminator makes this gambit, and we have two other loyal Hemalurgists, we are still in the ball park, and can address that when the time comes.

Edit: Cow, why is revealing the numbers of Hemas in thread bad for the village? The Eliminators will know anyway when he turns, so we might as well have a safety net.

How did I even downvote this I wasn't even trying to read this thread?

Slowswift, I'd be interested to see what percentage of your posts involve you downvoting someone and asking for it to be fixed. Edited November 5, 2015 by Guest

[+Slowswift]

Slowswift, I'd be interested to see what percentage of your posts involve you downvoting someone and asking for it to be fixed.

The percentage jumped when I started using mobile a lot.

[Guest]

The percentage jumped when I started using mobile a lot.

I know. It's one of the rocks in my life now. I think I would go mad if I didn't see you asking that at least once a day.

[+Slowswift]

I know. It's one of the rocks in my life now. I think I would go mad if I didn't see you asking that at least once a day.

Sorry, but I must stop. It's for the greater good, you see.

[Guest]

Sorry, but I must stop. It's for the greater good, you see.

I would make a witty response, but I too must stop this off-topic posting in a dedicated SE thread. I promise the next joke will be double-force!

[RippleGylf she/her]

Well, I just read through the thread, and am thoroughly confused. So we talked about the HI(L 9000. that does not make me want to trust it), and then what? Personally, I support a day 1 lynch, but I have no idea whom we should pick. I also detest the idea of a Contribution Crusade lunch day 1. They remind me a bit of the (WoT)

Whitecloaks

. But for now I will drop a vote on Shallan, because it amuses me.

 

Gylf stared at phattemer. It is amusing to put someone into the path of death, after clearly saying how such a death is not a good idea? Or had she just misunderstood his words?

[Clanky he/him]

Well, I just read through the thread, and am thoroughly confused. So we talked about the HI(L 9000. that does not make me want to trust it), and then what? Personally, I support a day 1 lynch, but I have no idea whom we should pick. I also detest the idea of a Contribution Crusade lunch day 1. They remind me a bit of the (WoT)

Whitecloaks

. But for now I will drop a vote on Shallan, because it amuses me.

 

I don't know about the rest of you guys but a Contribution Crusade lunch day sounds like one of the best ideas ever proposed in this game.

 

"What did you bring to the Contribution Crusade lunch?"

 

"Oh, I just brought a  veggie platter, I'm no good at cooking"

 

"What?! A veggie platter? That isn't really contributing much. You are definitely getting lynched for that."