Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[spencer12347 he/him]

Guys I know I have been offline for sometime and I always loose track of these games and just fall off them, but this time I won't. Also Wonko I was not informed that it was a duke or duchess that forced my vote. I'm probably still not going to vote this round for I haven't followed it but I will on night 2. 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Sorry about lack of activity. I'll try to get on more in the future, but can't promise anything. At the very least, I'll get on well before the lynch each day, to keep from a repeat of Day 1.

 

Well, blast. I was all set to vote for spencer, when he finally comes on to talk. This means that it was a Prince/Princess who forced Spencer's vote.

 

I don't have a lot to say in my defense that I haven't already. I have apologised for the last-minute activity, and don't intend to do it again, but at the time, it seemed the best of bad options. I wasn't as confident in Mek and Orlok as Luckat seems to have been, but I felt that every argument against either had been the result of a misunderstanding, and they hadn't made any suspicious choices under the pressure. So I was more convinced of their innocence then their guilt, and they were two of the most active players in the game. Lynching an inactive was a safe alternative, which still had a potential chance of hitting an eliminator.

 

People seem to think we should be trying to hit converts. Why? A dead convert is better for the Gyorn than a living one, in all but one case. The Gyorn doesn't win by preserving his flock, but by eliminating every player who isn't a member of it.

 

The point about the transferability of Seons has convinced me to come out and say that I have a Seon. I'd been thinking that the Seon makes me a target, but since my death doesn't eliminate the Seon, I'm actually no more desirable a death than anyone else.

 

I was in contact with Elantris Night 1, but they didn't have much to say. I intend to try again Day 3, after they've had a chance to search two areas for secrets.

 

So far, I've sort of been at a loss as to how to use the Seon effectively. I haven't learned anything from either of the two PMs I've made. My inactivity means I still have the ability to use it today (sorry!), so if anyone has any suggestions as to what I should do with it, I'm listening.

 

For what it's worth, other than the Seon, I'm a vanilla Arelish citizen.

[Emerald101 he/him]

Is it too late to sign up as a pinch hitter?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

People seem to think we should be trying to hit converts. Why? A dead convert is better for the Gyorn than a living one, in all but one case. The Gyorn doesn't win by preserving his flock, but by eliminating every player who isn't a member of it.

This doesn't really make sense. Kasimir already did an analysis on this, but right now there are three people being pulled out of the pool that the Gyorn needs to deal with every cycle. The lynch target, the cultist kill and his own conversion. If any of those overlap, then that is one fewer person on the list that the Gyorn can forget about. If the Gyorn does 5 conversions, the lynch hits 5 people and the cultists take out another 5, the number of people that the Gyorn has to deal with ranges from 15-20 (Based off of our starting numbers). 15 is when no converts are killed, and twenty is when they all die. So based on what we do, without ever factoring in the Odiv, we could buy ourselves multiple extra cycles by killing converts. Now I'm not saying that we should explicitly target them, but maybe the cultists could be kind enough to?

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

This doesn't really make sense. Kasimir already did an analysis on this, but right now there are three people being pulled out of the pool that the Gyorn needs to deal with every cycle. The lynch target, the cultist kill and his own conversion. If any of those overlap, then that is one fewer person on the list that the Gyorn can forget about. If the Gyorn does 5 conversions, the lynch hits 5 people and the cultists take out another 5, the number of people that the Gyorn has to deal with ranges from 15-20 (Based off of our starting numbers). 15 is when no converts are killed, and twenty is when they all die. So based on what we do, without ever factoring in the Odiv, we could buy ourselves multiple extra cycles by killing converts. Now I'm not saying that we should explicitly target them, but maybe the cultists could be kind enough to?

 

 

I don't think that the Converts are going to be coming out of the closet anytime soon, judging by that post.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

That makes sense. I was looking at it as dead convert vs. living convert, where I should have been looking at it as dead convert vs. dead non-convert. The point stands, though, that killing converts doesn't hurt the Gyorn; it just keeps us from helping them.

 

Running out of time on my Seon. Anyone have any idea what I should do with it today?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, if they are villagers, then their primary goal should be to help the village, rather than to survive. We need to find the Odiv and we can't do that without some info from the converts.

[Mckeedee123 he/him]

Well, if they are villagers, then their primary goal should be to help the village, rather than to survive. We need to find the Odiv and we can't do that without some info from the converts.

 

Okay, good point. Forget personal survival, guys, let's just come out and say if we're converts. It'd make me trust you guys a bit more.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

 

I tied the vote a bit before midway into the cycle so that there is ample time for the Debtor and Vote Changers to get their actions/votes in so we can see the difference. 

...Meaning anyone who places a vote after you is messing up The Plan? Stifling serious discussion for the latter half of the cycle? (The last few pages prove it didn't work like that, but the implication is pretty strong.) Maill

 

I have decided to put my vote on Twelfth for now. He put a poke vote on Wonko and said he would change his vote later. He never changed his vote and I would like a reason why. Also during the day asked why Bort wasn't voting or Wonko. Do you have a reason for suspecting Wonko that lead to these actions? It isn't much to go on but I do find these two things together to be slightly off.

That was a LG11 grudge coincidence. Wonko happened to be both a player I remembered as being more active last game and a target for questioning about the bandwagon. As for not moving my vote, I came on to change it later than planned; at that point the bandwagon was happening, and I wasn't comfortable participating. For clarity's sake, I decided to leave my vote where it was. I'm not particularly suspicious of Wonko, though their decision to claim their role is interesting.

 

 

Re. day 1 lynch votes: We've assumed that the vote manipulation towards getting cycle-1-Mek lynched came from the Cultists. I agree with this (two manipulations in the same direction suggests deliberate organisation). Depending on which lynch state they last saw, this has different meanings.

 

Orlok-C1Mek: Both were Civilians, so equally valid targets. They chose a target. Either they 1) preferred C1Mek, for whatever reason, or 2) they wanted to avoid a draw, suggesting they may have a debtor on the team.

C1Mek-C1Feligon: Either 1) trying to save C1Feligon (who is a Cultist here) or 2) again avoiding a draw

 

Gut feeling is leaning towards avoiding a draw (probably because that route avoids making assumptions about a specific player). I think Winter argued (in cycle 1) that the Cultists wouldn't get a counterproductive role, but it could serve to balance the numbers - if 5 is too few but 6 is too many, make it 6 but with one having a harmful role.

[little wilson she/her]

Well, if they are villagers, then their primary goal should be to help the village, rather than to survive. We need to find the Odiv and we can't do that without some info from the converts.

 

At the risk of sounding like one myself, if the Lovers are Citizens, then their primary goal is to survive, with their secondary being to help the village (or the Gyorn, I suppose, if they want to play the more difficult route). Before the game started, when I was getting shipped with everyone and their dog, I considered multiple Lover strategies. What it all comes down to with them is that they have no reason to help people who are going to turn around and try to kill them. Since the Cultists can only win by eliminating everybody else, this makes the Cultists the Lover's biggest enemy. But if the Village is indiscriminately lynching people simply for having been converted, the village isn't far behind the Cultists in terms of enemy. We have no idea who the Lovers are or how many there are (unless the Dula(s) want(s) to step forward, since that would help pin the number, though I'd definitely suggest keeping the players matched to yourself), but statistically, it's far more likely for the Lovers to be Citizens than Eliminators or a Citizen-Eliminator match.

 

I feel for the lovers (okay, not really. I only got shipped, so I can only imagine the troubles they're facing right now), because that can be a hard role to play, even if you're both Villagers. I'd prefer not to antagonize them into helping the Gyorn with his win. With that many extra hands helping him, it would make it all that much less likely that we win. Any strategy that plays heavily on the "You're a villager, and it doesn't matter if you live or die" idea should probably be scrapped if we don't want more enemies than we already have.

[Guest]

@Wilson Sorry. I meant to say #C, not #3. When I was writing the post, I originally had the possibilities as 1, 2, and 3, not A, B, and C. I noticed this formatting error right as I was about to post and changed the numbers to letters, but I missed my later reference to the list. I think that an Elantrian was converted.

Also, can an Elantrian Odiv convert those outside of Elantris? This has probably been said, but I might have missed it...

Edit for Clanky. My mind has been changed, I suppose. But I will be watching...MWAHAHAHAHA

Edited May 28, 2015 by Guest

[Alvron]

Also, can an Elantrian Odiv convert those outside of Elantris? This has probably been said, but I might have missed it...

I don't recall it being said anywhere but since Elantrian cultists can't target outside Elantris, I'm assuming it's the same for the Odiv.

 

GM clarification on this would be nice.

Edited May 28, 2015 by Alvron

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Guys? I'm still waiting for anyone to give me suggestions on what I should do with my PM.

 

Also, as things stand, we're lynching the Debtor. Is that what we want? I don't think so, but I don't want to be the player to decide the vote again.

[Seonid he/him]

Mail, I'd appreciate contact as well. Now, on the subject of concerts, they should definitely not be a priori targets for lynches. There may be good reasons for going after a convert. There are almost no good reasons for going after them indiscriminately. At the very least, we run the risk of laying sight of the biggest danger, the cultists.

Now, in saying this, I do not say that we should ignore the cultist list (if and when we get one), and we should watch for suspicious behavior leading to the odiv, but indiscriminate lynching of converts doesn't do that.

[spencer12347 he/him]

When does this day end?

Edited May 28, 2015 by spencer12347

[Alvron]

In about 1 hour.

[spencer12347 he/him]

Thank you

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Okay, sorry, I've been gone all day. It's he last day of school, so it's been busy.

First, I'm taking Kas up on his offer. I wanted to be first, but I guess Wonko beat me to it. I have the Seon Nae. I have contacted one Elantrian last night, who I shall refer to as Ela. Ela told me that they hadn't noticed any particularly suspicious actions in Elantris and that Neo was fairly active. We also began a code in case he becomes Hoed. Last day cycle, I contacted Mushroom. Mushroom and I discussed many different things relating to this thread, and if hard pressed, I'd assume that Mushroom is a Citizen, but I wouldn't bank on it. Today, I have a conversation with Throat. Throat has claimed a particular role and claimed to have done a certain thing with their role. Now, I can't verify it, but based on the discussion we had, also concerning other playersajd our suspicions, I'd also assume Throat is a Citizen.

Now on to contacts for the future. I planned to contact Ela for every night cycle to keep Elantris conversations going, but if Wonko is willing to make an Elantrian contact for tonight, I'll go through the three who requested some contact in order: Honey Badger, Kipper, Wilson. Thoughts?

My suspicion on Wonko has decreased for now, but not too much. Especially since he has a Seon. I expect the Cuktists to have one, but I don't want to turn this into a Spanreed issue from LG5 again. For now, my biggest suspects are: Dow, Jain, Lu, and Alv. Lu and Alv have seemed to only reiterate what others said and not add much else. Alv keeps bringing up the Lovers and Hostages, but I don't see the point in speculating that. We can't know who they are. Dow and Jain are pushing much harder than normal for a lynch.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Following your request, I will contact an Elantrian tonight.

 

Since no one is offering suggestions for who I should contact today, I am going to semi-arbitrarily select one of the players currently online and hope they have something to say.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Following your request, I will contact an Elantrian tonight.

 

Since no one is offering suggestions for who I should contact today, I am going to semi-arbitrarily select one of the players currently online and hope they have something to say.

It's a bit late for that. There's only 45 minutes left, but go for it, I guess.

[Alvron]

 Lu and Alv have seemed to only reiterate what others said and not add much else. Alv keeps bringing up the Lovers and Hostages, but I don't see the point in speculating that. We can't know who they are.

I have not been reiterating anyone.  I brought up the Pirates/Lovers as well as the possibility of the Convert being an Elantrian.  I have no problem being called out and even voted for but could you at least make it for something I have actually done.

 

I also didn't say we should speculate on who the Lovers/Pirates are just that when everyone was trying to work out how many cycles we have, they should factor in the chance of multiple deaths due to those roles.  Also I didn't bring it up a second time, I was merely trying to explain my first post in cycle 1 which was what Aonar brought up as a reason for voting for me.

 

The fact that you completely misread my posts makes me think you are trying to get people to think I am suspicious.  I need no help there.  I am very adept at doing that myself.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Yeah, I know. I doubt anything will come of it, but who knows?

 

I really don't understand how I should be using my Seon. Contacting Elantris, sure, but what else? I felt like I wasted my first two PMs, which is why I was so hesitant to choose on this one. What should I do in the future?

[Kasimir he/him]

Still tired so very quick post.
 
1. I'd recommend not contacting Phatt, if Wilson is right that he has a corrupted Seon, meaning he can get into contact with one of us. (The issue of whether Wilson can be trusted is a separate one.) Other than that, I would say I have no strong opinion on which Elantrian to talk to.
 
2. Hreo's clarification would've changed my stance somewhat, Kipper. I'd been working on the basis of an earlier clarification I'd received from him--Day One, I believe--in which he states that actions came first, including gifting, then deaths, then the actions were carried out. I'm going to assume that this has effectively been annulled and work on the basis of the most recent ruling. However, I still strongly think that even if people with Seons prefer to work through a trusted contact to communicate with the thread, the information must flow. They're in a uniquely advantageous position and we need to capitalise on that.
 
3. I don't know if I'll shift my vote. I'm going to look through the thread again, but it's around half an hour to close, and spencer doesn't seem in any immediate danger. I'll shift it if I find someone who's elicited a little more of my suspicions.

Sorry, Hreo. That joke had to be made

 

Edit: Wonko--really, just spread information. That's the whole point of PMing, IMO, especially in a game with no PMs. It's also a great way of allowing anonymous tip-offs to come about. I just don't think the odds of finding the Priest(s) are great, but that's another of the avenues in which PMing would be useful.

Edited May 28, 2015 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde he/him]

The Priest(s), presuming Hero hasn't trolled us, or hadn't ended up as an inactive, needs a voice. Obviously, they'd need to scan Seon holders first, but you can try search for them - if they scan you, and you end up contacting them, they can start feeling Intel anonymously.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

But that requires that I find on first. What should I do until then? I feel like I'm just stabbing in the dark, and it's not getting any easier as the game goes on.

 

Kas, corrupted Seons don't work. No one can PM out of Elantris; we have to go in. Also, I'm pretty sure that since Maill dropped his vote on me, Spencer is the dominant lynch target. So yeah, a little danger.