coco.pudding she/they Posted April 21 Posted April 21 (edited) Night 1: Justice Undeserved The explorers, who had been so united just the night before, sitting around the fire and eating their s’mores, now shouted and pointed fingers, each one at the same time trying both to prove their own innocence and accuse the others. Names were flung around, each one accusing someone else, the conversation growing more heated as the day progressed. Some began to search the House for evidence, for some sign of who might be the killer among them. One was successful. More marshmallow stains were found on the edge of a sink, in a room deeper within the House. “Everyone come quick! I found something!” The others rushed into the room to inspect the evidence for themselves. And that’s when Patrick remembered something, something that might save him and doom the other. “I saw Warren coming out of this room last night. He must have one the murder and then come here to wash his hands.” Voices rise again, everyone turning to glare at Warren, who raised his hands, stepping backwards. “It wasn’t me! That’s just a coincidence! Please, you must believe me!” But coincidence or not, it was all they had to go on. Warren was marched to the entrance hall, where a new debate began: what to do with the killer. At last they decided: they would leave him tied up in a locked bedroom, where he would be unable to get out and do more harm, at least until the figured out how to get the doors open. They aren’t killers, after all, even if he is. By the time they decided, however, it was too late, for when they turned around to collect him again, there he lay next to the other body, a kitchen knife in his chest. Justice was administered. But now there was another killer among them. ———————————— Wahr has been executed! He was an Innocent Explorer. Night 1 has begun, and will end at 8pm Pacific Time on Tuesday, April 21. Please get in your actions before then (yes, exploring and searching for clues is a night action) Vote Count: Wahr (2): Fizz, Star Fizz (2): mippo, Mint Mint (2): Wahr, Striker Striker (1): Mist Mippo (1): Qian Akimiko (1): Divergent Mist (1): Fallen Divergent (1): Doc Player List: Spoiler 1. @___ as Mr. Monopoly, who is looking to redevelop the House 2. @Through the living Wahr as Warren the wisp-followed Innocent Explorer 3. @Fizz9 as Patrick, a friendly neighborhood smith 4. @Through The Living Star as Mabel, who is secretly not a grouch 5. @Akimikoisthecutest as Talasin the journalist 6. @Qianweilian as Randal Boar, who might be really lost 7. @Doc12 as Verna, a writer enamored by the House 8. @Mist. as Brax 9. @Frozen Mint as Luminair, a disciple of Aralis 10. @Divergent as Archie 11. @Miss Fallen as K. Tims, yoyo artist extraordinaire 12. @Conure1243 as Liam 13. @StrikerEZ as Variel the dark and funky 14. @Verdance as Harley, a secretary with a detective complex Edited April 22 by Araris Valerian 3
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Yeah, this was expected. He wasn’t falsifying any stats or rules info like last game, he really was acting like LG 110. And now he gets to look at us from the spec doc and be frustrated at us for making stupid decisions
Miss Fallen she/her Posted April 21 Posted April 21 And we have to petition for marshmallows to be added to the potential clues
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 8 minutes ago, Miss Fallen said: And we have to petition for marshmallows to be added to the potential clues All of the clues are actually references to past SE games, so I'll consider it .
Divergent He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 I feel like the votes being 2/2/2/several ones kind of implies that we're in Scenario 2/3 Also Mint and Fizz being the tied wagons make me think they're likely v
StrikerEZ he/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 8 minutes ago, Divergent said: I feel like the votes being 2/2/2/several ones kind of implies that we're in Scenario 2/3 Also Mint and Fizz being the tied wagons make me think they're likely v I’m leaning towards scenario 2/3 as well. Granted, this wouldn’t be the first time an elim team lucked out and let the village go to town all by themselves. But it does seem less likely with the context that we might all just be villagers
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 46 minutes ago, Divergent said: I feel like the votes being 2/2/2/several ones kind of implies that we're in Scenario 2/3 Also Mint and Fizz being the tied wagons make me think they're likely v 37 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: I’m leaning towards scenario 2/3 as well. Granted, this wouldn’t be the first time an elim team lucked out and let the village go to town all by themselves. But it does seem less likely with the context that we might all just be villagers I can agree with this, though I will say there is a chance that the Elims weren’t online for rollover, since everything happened about 2 hours before rollover. I do find it a bit hard to believe that they didn’t have one person online though, so that’s unlikely.
Divergent He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Yeah, it's not impossible for it to be Scenario 1 and that it just happened that none of the elims in said scenario received any attention, but I think factoring in how no wagon reached like 3 votes or more makes me think it's less likely Anyways, last I remembered from the discussions was that, we would be searching for clues. Is that still what we're doing and should we coordinate it? Or is it better to keep it hush and just share what we did the next day
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Divergent said: Yeah, it's not impossible for it to be Scenario 1 and that it just happened that none of the elims in said scenario received any attention, but I think factoring in how no wagon reached like 3 votes or more makes me think it's less likely Anyways, last I remembered from the discussions was that, we would be searching for clues. Is that still what we're doing and should we coordinate it? Or is it better to keep it hush and just share what we did the next day So, looking at the rules, we can either explore the house or other people(people with roles I’d suggest using them) but other people should probably search for the house for clues. We could get lucky and follow an NK, but you’d have to be very lucky for that, and right now I think finding the scenario is more important Edit: nevermind, after thinking it over, I think it might be better to follow people. I think Edited April 21 by Mist.
Divergent He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 33 minutes ago, Mist. said: So, looking at the rules, we can either explore the house or other people(people with roles I’d suggest using them) but other people should probably search for the house for clues. We could get lucky and follow an NK, but you’d have to be very lucky for that, and right now I think finding the scenario is more important Edit: nevermind, after thinking it over, I think it might be better to follow people. I think Is it actually possible to follow an NK? From what I'm seeing here, searching for people only reveals their search area during N0 and what items they may have. I do agree that there's some value doing that to verify if people were being honest with what they said about where they searched N0
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 20 minutes ago, Divergent said: Is it actually possible to follow an NK? From what I'm seeing here, searching for people only reveals their search area during N0 and what items they may have. I do agree that there's some value doing that to verify if people were being honest with what they said about where they searched N0 Oh, you’re right, I misread the part about finding where they searched to finding who they targeted. Finding out who’s lying could be a way to find Elims(they’re the only ones with incentives to lie) which actually might be better than following the NK(at least for now) in scenario 1, finding out who lied is basically finding out who the Elim team is, in scenario 2(for today only) it finds the first gun-holder, and in scenario 3, if there isn’t an NK, it tells you who the Kandra is, but searching players in scenario 3 doesn’t make sense and for scenario 2, past N1 it doesn’t make sense to do so. So… maybe today we search players? And then after that go to searching for clues, unless we find out we’re in scenario 1, in which case we got back to searching for people
Divergent He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 18 minutes ago, Mist. said: Oh, you’re right, I misread the part about finding where they searched to finding who they targeted. Finding out who’s lying could be a way to find Elims(they’re the only ones with incentives to lie) which actually might be better than following the NK(at least for now) in scenario 1, finding out who lied is basically finding out who the Elim team is, in scenario 2(for today only) it finds the first gun-holder, and in scenario 3, if there isn’t an NK, it tells you who the Kandra is, but searching players in scenario 3 doesn’t make sense and for scenario 2, past N1 it doesn’t make sense to do so. So… maybe today we search players? And then after that go to searching for clues, unless we find out we’re in scenario 1, in which case we got back to searching for people I feel like it's most useful for Scenario 1 since there's more incentive to lie about their exploration to avoid being grouped together in a set of people (though I guess some might not even need to lie at all since you can be elim w/o picking the weighted option). For Scenario 2 and 3, I feel there's less incentive to lie since in both, there's only one starting "elim" and you basically hand off the role to someone else either randomly (Scenario 2) or by choice (Scenario 3) So would probably support searching players to double check if we can rule out Scenario 1 and then next cycle, we can work on figuring out if it's Scenario 2/3. Would also lean towards checking everyone, but if that's difficult to coordinate, then probably try targeting those who stated to have explored ground floor and upstairs
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 1 minute ago, Divergent said: I feel like it's most useful for Scenario 1 since there's more incentive to lie about their exploration to avoid being grouped together in a set of people (though I guess some might not even need to lie at all since you can be elim w/o picking the weighted option). For Scenario 2 and 3, I feel there's less incentive to lie since in both, there's only one starting "elim" and you basically hand off the role to someone else either randomly (Scenario 2) or by choice (Scenario 3) So would probably support searching players to double check if we can rule out Scenario 1 and then next cycle, we can work on figuring out if it's Scenario 2/3. Would also lean towards checking everyone, but if that's difficult to coordinate, then probably try targeting those who stated to have explored ground floor and upstairs Well want to be aware that the Elim team(regardless of what scenario) will probably lie about their results. Meaning we may have to double up on searching people to prevent that
Mint11 she/her Posted April 21 Posted April 21 to answer the question on why I voted for fizz, out of everyone who had votes at that point, they seemed the most likely to me to be elim. they had a few posts but no strong opinions @Araris Valerian Spoiler Clues have a C% chance to be from the pool of clues for the current scenario, and a 100-C% chance to be from a different scenario. are the clues that have a C% chance of being found the ones that are unique to the scenario or does it include shared clues? so taking this one for example: Remnants of an explosion/gunshot (Scenarios 1 and 2) if we were in scenario 1, would this have a C% chance or a 100-C% chance?
Akimikoisthecutest Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Hi, sooooo, I forgot to follow it so I didn't see that anyone had posted after me.... Then I got busy with our play.... So I'm going to go catch up on everything rn...
Mint11 she/her Posted April 21 Posted April 21 okay so I just did some math, and given the formula for C, where X is the number of players: Quote 100*(3/(.8X-1.6)+⅓) C is currently 67, and it should go up and player count goes down someone please double check my math there
Akimikoisthecutest Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Ok, so I'm not super sure who I should agree with. Doc's argument does seem convincing, but I'm a little biased... But I think that there is something that we're not seeing yet... 1
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 56 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said: okay so I just did some math, and given the formula for C, where X is the number of players: C is currently 67, and it should go up and player count goes down someone please double check my math there We got told C by Araris, it’s 65% and C doesn’t change Quote Clues have a C% chance to be from the pool of clues for the current scenario, and a 100-C% chance to be from a different scenario. C is given by the formula 100*(3/(.8X-1.6)+⅓), where X is the player count, and C is rounded to the nearest whole number. The value of C will be stated at the start of the game. And even if it did, the number of alive players vs the number of players is different
Mint11 she/her Posted April 21 Posted April 21 1 hour ago, Mist. said: We got told C by Araris, it’s 65% and C doesn’t change And even if it did, the number of alive players vs the number of players is different must have missed that. thanks for clarifying given the percentages, I'm not really sure how much we'll be able to discern from clues (pending araris' answer to my question above, but I think I figured out the intent as I was writing it up). so I'd say searching for an item is about equally as helpful right now (there are a couple good ones, it's just not very likely we'll get them). and then searching for another player is really only helpful if we're already suspicious of them
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 (edited) For anyone that explores for a clue, there is a 65% chance of a clue from the current scenario pool, with each of the 3 options being equally likely. Then there would be a 17.5% chance for each of the other two pools, and again, any of the 3 options are equally likely. Also, there is a 20% chance up front that exploring players get lost and find nothing. Also, C is fixed at the starting value. Edited April 21 by Araris Valerian 1
Qianweilian He/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: All of the clues are actually references to past SE games, so I'll consider it Ah, so you're saying I'm doomed?
Myst He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Brax rubbed his eyes, staring out one of the many windows of the room. With Warren dead, that meant two people had died so far…. Was the Void card worth risking death? He’d shown it was from when he found his skull card. Not to mention that he couldn’t leave. Not yet. The house would not let him. Brax pulled out his deck of cards, flicking through them. Should he draw one? He wasn’t sure… He might need them later… Against his better judgement, Brax flipped the top card. Idiot. Brax snorted, he supposed they were, after today. The question was one of tomorrow, would it hold? Or would everyone get their act together to help figure this out? He didn’t know. 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 3 hours ago, Qianweilian said: Ah, so you're saying I'm doomed? No more than anyone else in the House .
Doc12 Posted April 21 Posted April 21 3 hours ago, Mist. said: Brax rubbed his eyes, staring out one of the many windows of the room. With Warren dead, that meant two people had died so far…. Was the Void card worth risking death? He’d shown it was from when he found his skull card. Not to mention that he couldn’t leave. Not yet. The house would not let him. Brax pulled out his deck of cards, flicking through them. Should he draw one? He wasn’t sure… He might need them later… Against his better judgement, Brax flipped the top card. Idiot. Brax snorted, he supposed they were, after today. The question was one of tomorrow, would it hold? Or would everyone get their act together to help figure this out? He didn’t know. Verna sat up from the bed, black silk blankets draped around her like the dress she'd been wearing. "Drew something interesting, my gambler?" She smirked. "Come now, back into bed with you." "The deaths -" Brax began. "Shhh..." Verna beckoned him again. "The house has claimed one, two. It shall devour another tonight. Far too late to worry now." She stretched, catlike, inviting. "Perhaps the house might claim even one of us tonight, so why not die with one less regret?" Brax stared at the card in his hand. What a striking figure he cut, silhoutted against the moonlight from the window, even though the bedchamber they'd found was in the middle of the house, far from any exterior wall. But Verna did not begrudge the house its little tricks. It had provided a soft bed and silken sheets for the night, after all. The deaths... She'd spoken lightly. But truly. Perhaps later tonight she would put the mourning veil back on, light a candelabra, and plunge deeper into the house, let it charm and open itself up to her questing mind. The mourning would come, the deaths a stark reminder that the rules of the mortal world still held sway. She would explore. She would learn. Perhaps the gambler might follow, or he might not. There was no attachment here, yet. Only the comfort of brief, fiery spark. She smiled at Brax once more, understanding the house. Who wouldn't want to keep one such as him as a pretty little trophy? "Back to bed, darling. Deaths after." ------------------------ Still a waiting game to find out our scenario. Following isn't a terrible idea. I wouldn't know who to start with, though. What floor would people be incentivized to lie about? Also I might be misremembering but I feel like Mint compared the claims and they were pretty even. I'm personally going to be looking for clues. 8 hours ago, Akimikoisthecutest said: Ok, so I'm not super sure who I should agree with. Doc's argument does seem convincing, but I'm a little biased... But I think that there is something that we're not seeing yet... What argument am I making again? I don't really feel suspicious of any one person from the votes from yesterday. There wasn't any real sense of urgency to tie-break. Again, we might learn more from tonight's NK. So it's another waiting game. 2
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