Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Mark IV he/him]

3 hours ago, |TJ| said:

KelsierApologist was exiled! She was a member of the Black Ajah!

That's pretty tame for book Aes Sedai, though, no? I feel like they'd either bury Polly's existence under the rug or still and execute her for being Black Ajah 

Exile seems like a peaceful way to go for an outed BA 

 

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

(Gaea, she didn't read my post breaking that initial tie until after she had already voted so her vote was to her, a tie break) and then me (breaking the three way tie)

Side note, but I do go exclusively by They/Them or Fae/Faer pronouns btw

Jo in the Bush thank you for posting a vote tally too, that helps with tracking. It also still feels really weird to be voting in red for the people we don't want to be stilled tonight, lol.

[Terrisman]

11 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

I am currently placing my vote on Sart. I don't particularly trust Sart, nor do I want him to become the Amyrlin, but I'm trying to get TUF, BridgeBoi, or Steeldancer Stilled tonight, because I trust those three the least among the Sitters. In my ideal world, BB would get no votes tonight, and TUF would get 1, so that BB loses his extra-protection, and TUF is taken out of the running

This is what I’ve been trying to say

I’m also going to vote sart

edit: forgot to write my vote

Edited March 24, 2025 by Terrisman

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

Something to keep in mind is if the Brown Ajah does choose to protect TUF, we need to have a third option for stilling at 2 votes--otherwise it will still get randomized among the 3-vote Sitters, if the two people with the lowest votes are protected by passive or active abilities.

[Terrisman]

I’msorta realizing now that I’ve been very focused on BridgeBoi’s double immunity from stilling but I don’t even have a read on him, so I’m gonna stop mentioning it unless someone else brings it up

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Jo - Yellow - (3): Kasimir, Mark IV, Gaea VOTE FOR JO
TUF- Brown - ()
Sart - Green - (1):  Terrisman
Terrisman - Grey - (1): Aetunum
BridgeBoi - Blue - (1): TwinStorm
Steeldancer - White - (1): Jo

No Vote: (1): ThatOneWorldhopper

I will move my vote to Steeldancer. Now TUF is the leading Candidate for becoming Stilled. However, if, as Gaea and others have said, Tuf and Twinstorm agree to protect TUF, then a random one of Sart, Terrisman, BridgeBoi, or Steeldancer will get Stilled. @TwinStorm, do you intend to protect TUF?

2 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

I’msorta realizing now that I’ve been very focused on BridgeBoi’s double immunity from stilling but I don’t even have a read on him, so I’m gonna stop mentioning it unless someone else brings it up

Honestly, I am worried about the immunity, but I'm not currently worried about BridgeBoi. (Ideally the Green Ajah just takes him out, using up both abilities without any tempo loss)

 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

Just now, A Jo in the Bush said:

Jo - Yellow - (3): Kasimir, Mark IV, Gaea VOTE FOR JO
TUF- Brown - ()
Sart - Green - (1):  Terrisman
Terrisman - Grey - (1): Aetunum
BridgeBoi - Blue - (1): TwinStorm
Steeldancer - White - (1): Jo

No Vote: (1): ThatOneWorldhopper

I will move my vote to Steeldancer. Now TUF is the leading Candidate for becoming Stilled. However, if, as Gaea and others have said, Tuf and Twinstorm agree to protect TUF, then a random one of Sart, Terrisman, BridgeBoi, or Steeldancer will get Stilled. @TwinStorm, do you intend to protect TUF?

Honestly, I am worried about the immunity, but I'm not currently worried about BridgeBoi. (Ideally the Green Ajah just takes him out, using up both abilities without any tempo loss)

 

not unless he proves himself to me

[Terrisman]

Just now, TwinStorm said:

not unless he proves himself to me

What can he do to prove himself to you?

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, xxGaea said:

Something to keep in mind is if the Brown Ajah does choose to protect TUF, we need to have a third option for stilling at 2 votes--otherwise it will still get randomized among the 3-vote Sitters, if the two people with the lowest votes are protected by passive or active abilities.

Oh crap yeah d'oh sorry I misread/misrecalled the Blue Ajah thing as Thug Lyfe rather than getting the next person Stilled.

Then yeah @A Jo in the Bush is correct: lowest votes on BridgeBoi, two on TUN. Ideally we'd have no on BridgeBoi, but...

I think we're forced to work around @TwinStorm here, if Storm is pretty sold on whatever he's cooking on. (Storm, simply put, the biggest issue with TUF is claimed random voting on a train that indirectly defends Polly. Regardless of whatever he says/does in doc, that's something that's pretty solidly Elim-helping. If that's not strong enough for you, then tbh, it also does seem like the new Elim tactic / arbitrary threshold of evidential strength thing being employed by you as well.)

7 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

I’msorta realizing now that I’ve been very focused on BridgeBoi’s double immunity from stilling but I don’t even have a read on him, so I’m gonna stop mentioning it unless someone else brings it up

BridgeBoy was I think a second or third voter on me with a fairly opportunistic vote early on. I'm not opposed to him losing his Sitter status, just didn't want a random shot on him when there's TUF to deal with.

Edited to add:

I mean BridgeBoi... I blame Mark for sending my mind back to 2015 by mentioning BridgeBoy!  

[TwinStorm He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

What can he do to prove himself to you?

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Oh crap yeah d'oh sorry I misread/misrecalled the Blue Ajah thing as Thug Lyfe rather than getting the next person Stilled.

Then yeah @A Jo in the Bush is correct: lowest votes on BridgeBoi, two on TUN. Ideally we'd have no on BridgeBoi, but...

I think we're forced to work around @TwinStorm here, if Storm is pretty sold on whatever he's cooking on. (Storm, simply put, the biggest issue with TUF is claimed random voting on a train that indirectly defends Polly. Regardless of whatever he says/does in doc, that's something that's pretty solidly Elim-helping. If that's not strong enough for you, then tbh, it also does seem like the new Elim tactic / arbitrary threshold of evidential strength thing being employed by you as well.)

BridgeBoy was I think a second or third voter on me with a fairly opportunistic vote early on. I'm not opposed to him losing his Sitter status, just didn't want a random shot on him when there's TUF to deal with.

Edited to add:

I mean BridgeBoi... I blame Mark for sending my mind back to 2015 by mentioning BridgeBoy!  

hmmmm, that's a fair point, he hasn't been very active in doc anyway, so I don't think I shall

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Jo - Yellow - (3): Kasimir, Mark IV, Gaea VOTE FOR JO
TUF- Brown - ()
Sart - Green - (1):  Terrisman
Terrisman - Grey - (1): Aetunum
BridgeBoi - Blue - (1): TwinStorm
Steeldancer - White - (1): Jo

Tbh, think we may need to shift the votes around if part of the game is inactive or whatever. My original proposal just assumed everyone shows up. But that can be a later worry, still haven't super had the time to go over everything.

[Mark IV he/him]

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

BridgeBoy was I think a second or third voter on me with a fairly opportunistic vote early on

Missed a spot there  Edit: Nvm, me dumb

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

I mean BridgeBoi... I blame Mark for sending my mind back to 2015 by mentioning BridgeBoy!

All my pleasure

Edited March 24, 2025 by Mark IV
Me dumb

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add:

42 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Currently, there is no probable universe in which any of the Six Sitters reach a 9 vote majority, especially if we cannot vote on ourself, that is fine and good. But one of the six of us will be removed from the running tonight. Currently, I have votes, so it will not be me. It will be randomly decided between the sitters who get no votes. This means, that if you are suspicious of 3 of the sitters, and not suspicious of 3 of them, you should vote for the ones you aren't suspicious of, in order to get one of the suspicious ones Stilled. That removes them from the running, so they will never be able to become the Amyrlin Seat. Choosing to not vote does not actually decrease the odds of an Elevation happening tonight, because the odds are already infinitesimal. Choosing to not vote simply increases the odds that a Village Sitter gets stilled, which gets the Black Ajah one step closer to victory.

  Night voting gives us data too, especially when some Sitters flip. Conversely, who flipped Elims and Villagers vote for.

Fundamentally my main issue is that we need to take control of the Sitter pool, or specifically, to control who gets Stilled each Night. If we let RNGesus take the wheel, then we are likely to end up with two bad choices to choose between when the time comes to select an Amrylin (as forced by the mech) and that's worse. We just gotta take ownership from the start.

I'll add I think pace Storm that I can see a V!TUF world, but it's very TWTBAW based, and that's not very much a line of reasoning I like - I kind of feel Storm is a bit more TWTBAW here. I just think that the me-vote seems to have brought me back into contention alongside Drake and Polly:

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, xxGaea
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, Joe, Steeldancer
xxGaea (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

I'll check Aet's working when I have time later. I just wanted to point out that the key movements is TUF onto me, which brings me into contention against Polly and Drake. In an E!Drake world (I don't buy it for now but know a number of you do), this makes that vote look incredibly Evil because it brings a Villager into contention against Polly and Drake trains. In a V!Drake world, it's a bit less Evil but still pretty Evil because it creates a 2/3 chance that a Villager gets exed instead. And that's purely looking at the votes and ignoring everything I've said about TUF's blatant V!meta deviation and his performative randomness claim which seemingly exists to defuse the badness of the vote.

Basically sort of 'yeah he could be V but honestly all of this in conjunction is enough for me to say "he just needs to be flipped tbqh."' 

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 hour ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Ok, annoying that I cannot vote for myself.

I'mma be real with y'all, No Voting is a bad idea. I will try to lay this out as thoroughly as possible.

Currently, there is no probable universe in which any of the Six Sitters reach a 9 vote majority, especially if we cannot vote on ourself, that is fine and good. But one of the six of us will be removed from the running tonight. Currently, I have votes, so it will not be me. It will be randomly decided between the sitters who get no votes. This means, that if you are suspicious of 3 of the sitters, and not suspicious of 3 of them, you should vote for the ones you aren't suspicious of, in order to get one of the suspicious ones Stilled. That removes them from the running, so they will never be able to become the Amyrlin Seat. Choosing to not vote does not actually decrease the odds of an Elevation happening tonight, because the odds are already infinitesimal. Choosing to not vote simply increases the odds that a Village Sitter gets stilled, which gets the Black Ajah one step closer to victory.

You do not need to vote on me. I'm not asking you to vote on me. There are already 3 people (Kas, Mark, Gaea) who have said they are going to vote on me. Frankly, if any Sitter does get more than 3 votes tonight, you should look closely at that Sitter and their voters. But if there is a Sitter that you are NOT suspicious of, AND they have less than 3 votes, you should vote on them to protect them.

I am currently placing my vote on Sart. I don't particularly trust Sart, nor do I want him to become the Amyrlin, but I'm trying to get TUF, BridgeBoi, or Steeldancer Stilled tonight, because I trust those three the least among the Sitters. In my ideal world, BB would get no votes tonight, and TUF would get 1, so that BB loses his extra-protection, and TUF is taken out of the running.

Jo - Yellow - (2): Kasimir, Mark IV,
TUF- Brown - ()
Sart - Green - (1): Jo
Terrisman - Grey - (1): Aetunum
BridgeBoi - Blue - (1): TwinStorm
Steeldancer - White - ()

No Vote: (1): @ThatOneWorldhopper, may I ask you to Change your vote to Steeldancer? If you are suspicious of TUF, and that will help get TUF stilled.

@Kasimir I will absolutely confirm that I will not allow the Yellow Ajah to protect anyone tonight.

Okay, why don't you trust me? I feel like breaking the tie in favor of killing Polly over two other options should be enough to at least get me above TUF and Bridgeboi who are, imo, easily the most suspicious of the Sitters. Also in regards to Sart, I am of the opinion that he is almost certainly village. I do not think an elim would go out of their way to point out a way to avoid their best chances of winning. Also, @xxGaeasorry about that I'll fix that in a moment. 

Also I will vote Terrisman in keeping with my conclusions on the votes on Polly, I think they're mostly in the clear in my book. 

Edited March 24, 2025 by Steeldancer
vote

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

11 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Okay, why don't you trust me?

Honestly? I haven't actually looked deeply enough at the Polly Execution. I probably will end up trusting you once I do, but I'm still trying to work my through a detailed analysis in order. I'm realizing this is a terrible idea, because of how long it took me just to get everything from N0 into a spreadsheet. For the Record, this is the idiocy I'm engaging in:

My vibes on you before the Polly-flip were you were an Elim, and off and on for the past 18 hours, I've been trying to actually figure out where all my vibes are coming from, in a data driven way, and I strongly recommend never doing this.

Typing this all up, I'm realizing that I shouldn't be playing right now. I need to go to bed. The reason I haven't done that is work will be hectic tomorrow, so this is my last chance to do any real analysis before the Day starts. But, I'm not actually doing any analysis, I'm doing Data Entry.

So, uh, folks, if you need me, I will be on again for a short time in (Checks Watch) 9 hours, just long enough to check the thread, answer questions, then I need to go to work. Hopefully the thread hasn't been unwoven in that time.

Steel is probably good.

TL:DR, no, it's not too long, go read it.

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

ngaging in:

My vibes on you before the Polly-f

...good god my head already hurts
Edit: I am putting you as village because surely, no elim would have the levels of insanity to go to that lengths in terms of analysis. you're utterly insane

Edited March 24, 2025 by Steeldancer

[Mark IV he/him]

28 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

good god my head already hurts
Edit: I am putting you as village because surely, no elim would have the levels of insanity to go to that lengths in terms of analysis. you're utterly insane

VOTE JO FOR AMYRLIN!!! JO'S THE BEST AMYRLIN CANDIDATE!!!!

An Amyrlin that cares deeply enough to invent spreadsheets in WoT is definitely someone I want heading the Tower!!

Edited March 24, 2025 by Mark IV
Minor fix

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Did you now...

 

I know how this looks...

I'll admit it, I knew Kas was village. I did not fake the rand. I would never invoke the gods of Luck and Chance in vain. I might have randed between just Kas and Drake though. 

Why those two? You may ask. Well, I didn't want Polly to die. I quite like Polly, and we were having a great time in our doc. Apparently, it wasn't the only doc they were having fun in >.< 

I was okay with voting Kas because I thought it was hilarious he was getting as much suspicion as he was. and Kas getting exed as village may or may not be on my bucket list Was that counter to the village's interests? Well, yeah. But it would have been funny.

I understand you have to still me now as a matter of course, but all I ask is that you don't exe me on principle tomorrow, because I want to hang around in the game and chat with Storm in our doc. Pretty please?

Oh, and Joe, because I like Jo and feel guilty for flipping the coin that killed him in the QF.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I will note, just because Jo is trustworthy doesn't necessarily mean we should make them Amyrlin. I'd say its better to keep them as a sitter, somewhat safe from death. 
Also, is a WGG possible with these rules, or are Sitters just immune to the kill entirely

[STINK he/him]

I've cracked it guys, why don't we just put an inactive Sitter as the head honcho and then control them from behind the scene as to put it totally randomly a very noble Vizier

[BridgeBoi]

Yall I wanted to explain the Kas vote last cycle. Before you read this take one thing into consideration, I’m terrible at this, mostly at telling if people are lying. I’ve played mafia/secret hitler before so I know how this works. I’m not confused on how the game works. What I am confused on is how yall are telling each other are lying. When I voted for Kas, honestly I had no idea who the Elims were. I didn’t want to make a hard read and get hammered when it turned out to be a bad read. I wanted an easy non controversial read. But quietly simply I bandwagonned on the Kas train and I’m sorry. Though, I will note that my vote wasn’t to protect Polly bc that was before Polly was under suspicion. If yall don’t trust me, that’s fine and I’m fine with not pursuing the Seat.
anyways as innumerable, posts have explained it’s best to deadlock the election for as long as possible. So I’ll vote No Vote for this cycle.   

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

I've cracked it guys, why don't we just put an inactive Sitter as the head honcho and then control them from behind the scene as to put it totally randomly a very noble Vizier

Book accurate Aes Sedai:

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Sorry Steeldancer: TUF.

Logically, if it's a 5-way tie, one of them will be Black Ajah, and hopefully the RNG helps us.

Also, @Terrisman, I've never read the books, so is the "darkfriends" from that? Or are they actually your friends?

Edited March 24, 2025 by ThatOneWorldhopper

[Terrisman]

8 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Honestly? I haven't actually looked deeply enough at the Polly Execution. I probably will end up trusting you once I do, but I'm still trying to work my through a detailed analysis in order. I'm realizing this is a terrible idea, because of how long it took me just to get everything from N0 into a spreadsheet. For the Record, this is the idiocy I'm engaging in:

My vibes on you before the Polly-flip were you were an Elim, and off and on for the past 18 hours, I've been trying to actually figure out where all my vibes are coming from, in a data driven way, and I strongly recommend never doing this.

Typing this all up, I'm realizing that I shouldn't be playing right now. I need to go to bed. The reason I haven't done that is work will be hectic tomorrow, so this is my last chance to do any real analysis before the Day starts. But, I'm not actually doing any analysis, I'm doing Data Entry.

So, uh, folks, if you need me, I will be on again for a short time in (Checks Watch) 9 hours, just long enough to check the thread, answer questions, then I need to go to work. Hopefully the thread hasn't been unwoven in that time.

Steel is probably good.

TL:DR, no, it's not too long, go read it.

If I would have seen this before the game started,I don’t think I would have ever played. I’m doing this all in my head y’all 

Just now, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

Sorry Steeldancer: TUF.

Logically, if it's a 5-way tie, one of them will be Black Ajah, and hopefully the RNG helps us.

Also, @Terrisman, I've never read the books, so is the "darkfriends" from that? Or are they actually your friends?

From the books

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Can somebody else confirm this? (Sorry Terrisman, I don't trust you.)

I really need to read these books.