Why these targets?

[LewsTherinTelescope]

Someone on Discord asked why Odium's forces care so much about the Shattered Plains as to commit a thousand Fused—sure they want to crush the rebel listeners, but this seems excessive. That got me thinking...

The biggest countries they own are:

• Jah Keved
• Iri
• Rira
• Babatharnam
• Alethkar (contingent on the contest)

Their biggest targets are:

• Thaylenah
• Azir
• Shattered Plains

Misc (you'll see why these countries in a second):

• Shinovar allegedly has fallen to the Unmade
• Aimia is uninhabitable lmao

If they succeed in their invasions, win the contest, and formalize whatever's going on in Shinovar, that gives them all nine useful Oathgates. Towerlight can't leave the Tower, so if we assume the Stormfather is blocked/killed by eternal Everstorm later in the book then Windrunners won't be able to fly you anywhere and spanreeds outside Urithiru will all run out of juice. Any remnants of the coalition would be unable to communicate or collaborate (except Urithiru and Emul through the mountains I guess), leaving it to wither and die even with the ceasefire in place. Hell, who knows if the treaty would even hold once the alliance breaks apart?

(As a bonus, those + Herdaz gives them the vast majority of old Silver Kingdoms-controlled territory, which no doubt fills the Fused with glee.)

[Diomedes]

 

1 hour ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

leaving it to wither and die even with the ceasefire in place.

I see this happening but for different reasons. If Todium controlls the Oathgates he also controls international trade.  I imagine a "cold war" scenario after the ceasefire, when no actual all out war is being waged and two sets of alliances face  off each other.

Controlling the Oathgates Todium will win this "cold war" because he will be able to strangle the alliance economically by cutting them off the international trade network. If the Dlinar alliance members are impoverished in relation to Todium controlled territory, they will make a deal with him eventually, even if it takes a few decades. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I do want to point out - this Shadesmar invasion fleet, if nothing else, has been brewing for several months. This isn't T-Odium's plan, it's Rayse's. Taravangian may have altered it, as he seems to be playing things closer to the chest, but this strategy of blitz the capitals to hold most of Roshar seems to be more Rayse's winning more territory than anything else. It was his idea to hold the Contest so soon

I do think controlling all the Oathgates is enough of a desire in and of itself, for either reason. But I don't know if that would be entirely the reason - it seems like Sja-anat could similarly disable the Oathgates, if she can touch Azimir's without them knowing. (Does she want to is a question, but I'd think Odium could force her to perform a more complete sundering like what was supposed to happen in Kholinar, as opposed to the subtlety we see in Azimir.)

It could also be that Odium's no longer playing by the "spirit" of the agreement (or is in a twisted way), and capturing the capitals of Azimir and Thaylanah would count as capturing the entire country. If that's the case, win or lose, Odium's forces would "currently hold"... basically all of Roshar, save Emul and Urithiru (and maybe a few other places, like Tukar and Aimia).

 

Actually, with both this offensive and the several RIP-Stormfather theories, I'd imagine Rayse was quite happy with his end of the deal. He's not getting off Roshar, but I doubt he was expecting to. But if he wins his offensives and the contest he's: killing the main holder of Honor, winning most of Roshar, and winning a very dangerous and powerful champion for the future. Taravangian's goals are likely going to be more along forcing Dalinar to break the agreement, which would actually let him leave and maybe get the rest along the way.

I'm still in the camp that Taravangian!Odium's going to be... mostly better in the long run than a freed Rayse would be, both due to Intent and inexperience. But Taravangian's more dangerous in the short run, because he's much more likely to actually get free.

Edited September 24, 2024 by Ashbringer

[Sparks]

Why these targets?

I subscribe to the theme of Todium putting on a show of fulfilling expectations of being Rayse and then subverting those expectations to fool them all...and so I believe then the 3 targets, Thaylenah, Azir, and the Shattered Plains are a feint.  It is classic Rayse, like the Battle of Thaylen Field - maneuver and surprise to bring together overwhelming force and demoralize the opponent by shock and awe.  The surprise of the singer army sailing, the timing of the Everstorm, the betrayal of Amaram and the House Sadeas army, the surprise Oathgate assault by the Fused all seems like a preview of the three-pronged assault in Wind and Truth.  

And in reality, it makes sense. Rayse cared about military victory. Rayse cared about holding territory. Taravangian realizes he can lose every battle and still win by winning the contest of champions. 

If Dalinar is dead or captured by Day 10, he breaks his word by not sending a willing champion to meet at the top of Urithiru.  Odium is free, and there is no contest of champions. 

I think Taravangian's real target of the assault will be Dalinar.

[JustQuestin2004 he/him]

41 minutes ago, Sparks said:

If Dalinar is dead or captured by Day 10, he breaks his word by not sending a willing champion to meet at the top of Urithiru.  Odium is free, and there is no contest of champions. 

I think Taravangian's real target of the assault will be Dalinar.

Counterpoint:  part of the Contract is thus

"We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side’s forces."

So if Odium has Dalinar captured by the time of the Contest while he has himself as his own Champion, then Odium is breaking the contract by not 'allowing' Dalinar to go to the top of Urithiru. 

Of course this only applies for the 'captured but alive' part of your theory. Not sure what would happen if Dalinar dies, would the decision of who the Champion is go to Stormfather? Navani? Either way it could go very badly.

Plus there seems to be a bit of foreshadowing since the Sibling says "They wouldn't dare attack while Urithiru is active", which, granted, without the Fused or Regals as soldiers, Odium doesn't have many options of taking the Tower by force.

Maybe an Unmade? Perhaps Dai-Gornathis who scoured Aimia by, allegedly, destroying their Fabrials? 

Perhaps Dai-Gornathis could counteract the suppressing field around Urithiru and redirect that army going to Azimir to instead use the now corrupted Oathgates to go to Urithiru?

Probably not, but if Odium wants Dalinar then he'll need to get him out of Urithiru or have a way of getting him while he's in Urithiru. Maybe he'll gather up the Diagram and send Malata, the Diagram's Dustbringer, to go sneak in and assassinate Dalinar while everyone is distracted by these attacks? That's sounds more like Taravangian.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

9 hours ago, Diomedes said:

Controlling the Oathgates Todium will win this "cold war" because he will be able to strangle the alliance economically by cutting them off the international trade network. If the Dlinar alliance members are impoverished in relation to Todium controlled territory, they will make a deal with him eventually, even if it takes a few decades. 

That's also a good point yeah. Turns out teleportation is useful for a lot of reasons!

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I do want to point out - this Shadesmar invasion fleet, if nothing else, has been brewing for several months. This isn't T-Odium's plan, it's Rayse's. Taravangian may have altered it, as he seems to be playing things closer to the chest, but this strategy of blitz the capitals to hold most of Roshar seems to be more Rayse's winning more territory than anything else. It was his idea to hold the Contest so soon

Definitely. I think this was always Rayse's next step—if the capture of the Tower had gone according to plan, Urithiru would've gone dark right as the armies arrived, leaving the Radiants unable to send support and blocking off an avenue of escape. If he could keep suspicions low for long enough, Rayse might have even been able to send his own forces through to hit each party from both sides.

5 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

But I don't know if that would be entirely the reason - it seems like Sja-anat could similarly disable the Oathgates, if she can touch Azimir's without them knowing.

That's a lot less useful than controlling them themselves, though, and there's always a chance the Radiants can convince the corrupted spren to operate anyway. They're still intelligent beings with their own minds, as we see in Azimir.

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

It could also be that Odium's no longer playing by the "spirit" of the agreement (or is in a twisted way), and capturing the capitals of Azimir and Thaylanah would count as capturing the entire country. If that's the case, win or lose, Odium's forces would "currently hold"... basically all of Roshar, save Emul and Urithiru (and maybe a few other places, like Tukar and Aimia).

Yeah I alluded to that a bit with the last line, though maybe I didn't give it enough emphasis. Is that even a twisting of the agreement? Alethkar was considered "fallen" as soon as Kholinar was captured, that might just be the general understanding of all involved.

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Actually, with both this offensive and the several RIP-Stormfather theories, I'd imagine Rayse was quite happy with his end of the deal. He's not getting off Roshar, but I doubt he was expecting to.

We see at the end of RoW that he's pissed. Evidently he's made the best of the situation, but it seems like he really did think he could negotiate his way off Roshar.

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm still in the camp that Taravangian!Odium's going to be... mostly better in the long run than a freed Rayse would be, both due to Intent and inexperience. But Taravangian's more dangerous in the short run, because he's much more likely to actually get free.

Agreed.

3 hours ago, Sparks said:

If Dalinar is dead or captured by Day 10, he breaks his word by not sending a willing champion to meet at the top of Urithiru.  Odium is free, and there is no contest of champions. 

Interesting idea. Can he do that, though? I feel like stopping him from picking someone would be a clear violation of the spirit of the deal, or even an outright violation of the letter since Dalinar is himself the champion and the terms say "allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side's forces".

Even if he did manage to kill him without doing anything that makes him directly responsible, I figure the Stormfather could probably still pick someone else since oaths are bound to the power rather than person. If the Stormfather dies... maybe the Sibling could as well? For some reason they're automatically aware of the exact verbiage of Odium and Dalinar's contract, which could suggest they have a magical "in" to all this as well.

2 hours ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

Perhaps Dai-Gornathis could counteract the suppressing field around Urithiru and redirect that army going to Azimir to instead use the now corrupted Oathgates to go to Urithiru?

I think if he could do that Odium would have sent him with the initial strike force.

2 hours ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

Maybe he'll gather up the Diagram and send Malata, the Diagram's Dustbringer, to go sneak in and assassinate Dalinar while everyone is distracted by these attacks? That's sounds more like Taravangian.

Taravangian personally ordered the Diagram's disbandment, is ten days enough to put that network back together? Plus, if he's in Urithiru then he's essentially immortal thanks to the infinite Towerlight, and the Sibling can see anything happening within its walls to warn him.

[BinarySecond]

I was wondering if the ones at the Shattered Plains weren't a host of Heavenly Ones gone to join Venli - Though I think it deeply unlikely.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

• The Fused are useless outside Roshar for now, as they cannot leave. Their loyalty to the new management is dubious.
• They are going insane. Why not use them now? Especially if many of them would not mind.
• As the Radiants will make more and more anti-Voidlight, using the Fused will get less and less useful in the future.
• Dalinar expects him to do something, while Taravangian wants to get out of the deal. Hence he does as expected.
• Taravangian wants to get out of the deal. In his mind he is not limited to bridgeheads around the Oathgates.
• It is an attack Dalinar has to respond to. Thus his ability to hamper whatever else Taravangian wants to do is limited.
• He is cutting the Radiants from help by other Shards. He has to block only Urithiru itself.

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Definitely. I think this was always Rayse's next step—if the capture of the Tower had gone according to plan, Urithiru would've gone dark right as the armies arrived, leaving the Radiants unable to send support and blocking off an avenue of escape. If he could keep suspicions low for long enough, Rayse might have even been able to send his own forces through to hit each party from both sides.

One of the odd things about RoW was how… seemingly disinterested Odium was in Urithiru. That might be me just misremembering, but he was definitely much more focused on Kaladin, while the siege of Urithiru’s was Raboniel’s plan and Raboniel seems barely in line with Odium’s plans anyway. It’s odd he didn’t commit to this.

13 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

That's a lot less useful than controlling them themselves, though, and there's always a chance the Radiants can convince the corrupted spren to operate anyway. They're still intelligent beings with their own minds, as we see in Azimir.

Right. Kind of a question of, when push comes to shove, how much control Odium has over Sja-Anat and Sja has over her Enlightees. The Azimir spren seem corrupted differently than the Kholinar ones, and it seemed like Sja-anat could have killed the Radiant group in Oathbringer if she’d wanted (or been forced) to.

18 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Yeah I alluded to that a bit with the last line, though maybe I didn't give it enough emphasis. Is that even a twisting of the agreement? Alethkar was considered "fallen" as soon as Kholinar was captured, that might just be the general understanding of all involved.

Hard to tell with Alethkar, it’s pretty well conquered at the moment and had Unmade wandering around for a long while before the war even started.

And it’s not just the Silver Kingdoms that the Fused would rule, it’s… I think every full country except Emul, and Emul doesn’t have an Oathgate and notably has been declining for some time even without the war. A bit better if Dalinar wins, but even still Alethkar’s got the most corrupted Oathgate.

 

23 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

We see at the end of RoW that he's pissed. Evidently he's made the best of the situation, but it seems like he really did think he could negotiate his way off Roshar.

I mean… god of fury 

Perhaps I should revise: it doesn’t accomplish much for what Odium/Rayse really wants, but Rayse did an excellent retaliation job of putting Dalinar in a lose/lose situation.

 

Dalinar also managed to terrify Nale and basically everyone except Odium and Ishar; I don’t think Malata would be too much to handle. (Also Dalinar dying to a random assassin in Part 3 would be rather narratively unsatisfying, but that doesn’t mean Taravangian shouldn’t try.)

[LewsTherinTelescope]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

One of the odd things about RoW was how… seemingly disinterested Odium was in Urithiru. That might be me just misremembering, but he was definitely much more focused on Kaladin, while the siege of Urithiru’s was Raboniel’s plan and Raboniel seems barely in line with Odium’s plans anyway. It’s odd he didn’t commit to this.

I think he just got cocky. The only reason it didn't work is because Raboniel turned on him in the end and defended Navani long enough for her to bond the Sibling rather than letting Moash kill her and finishing the job.

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

and it seemed like Sja-anat could have killed the Radiant group in Oathbringer if she’d wanted (or been forced) to.

That's fair. Rayse no longer trusted Sja-anat, though.

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hard to tell with Alethkar, it’s pretty well conquered at the moment and had Unmade wandering around for a long while before the war even started.

True, but iirc they start saying it as soon as Kholinar stops responding, before they know much about the status of the rest of the country. Been a while since I reread Oathbringer, though.

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And it’s not just the Silver Kingdoms that the Fused would rule, it’s… I think every full country except Emul, and Emul doesn’t have an Oathgate and notably has been declining for some time even without the war.

There's a lot of smaller nations we don't have a status for, I think. They would have most of the powerhouses though, yeah.

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Perhaps I should revise: it doesn’t accomplish much for what Odium/Rayse really wants, but Rayse did an excellent retaliation job of putting Dalinar in a lose/lose situation.

Oh for sure.

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Dalinar also managed to terrify Nale and basically everyone except Odium and Ishar; I don’t think Malata would be too much to handle.

It would be kind of funny if she tried and he simply yoinked her bond.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

28 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

That's fair. Rayse no longer trusted Sja-anat, though.

It's still a win for Odium. I wouldn't use an oathgate whose spren have been corrupted, unless I were in immediate danger of death. No telling what would happen. Nor could the Radiants make any plan that depends on such a gate.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

2 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

It's still a win for Odium. I wouldn't use an oathgate whose spren have been corrupted, unless I were in immediate danger of death. No telling what would happen. Nor could the Radiants make any plan that depends on such a gate.

They do precisely that in these chapters.

[The Stick]

The way I see it, there is no way they can defend all three cities. Maybe they could do two, on a good day, but one attack is going to get through. The issue obviously is that that gives them access to a corrupted Oathgate to Urithiru. I would say that they have to abandon Narak, but in doing so use anti-Stormlight on that Oathgate spren to cover their backs.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

1 hour ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

They do precisely that in these chapters.

Because they are in Shadesmar and can talk to them and they are in a military emergency. Traders getting on the teleport disc is very different question.

20 minutes ago, The Stick said:

The way I see it, there is no way they can defend all three cities. Maybe they could do two, on a good day, but one attack is going to get through. The issue obviously is that that gives them access to a corrupted Oathgate to Urithiru. I would say that they have to abandon Narak,

Yes, that looks like the obvious conclusion if they are short on forces. The Singers are already holding Iri. If they want access to an Oathgate, they already have it.

18 minutes ago, The Stick said:

 but in doing so use anti-Stormlight on that Oathgate spren to cover their backs.

If you do that, you can abandon all hope to get any more spren to take up bonds.

[Through the Living Shadow he/him]

Cutting off trade would make sense, as Thaylenar is the biggest merchant country, and they have the most sea travel, etc.

[Wanguu He/Him]

8 hours ago, BinarySecond said:

I was wondering if the ones at the Shattered Plains weren't a host of Heavenly Ones gone to join Venli - Though I think it deeply unlikely.

It's possible that the ones going to the shattered plains are to join Venli, as the scouts didn't seem to be attacked or anything. But, they do have a thunder clast.

[The Stick]

7 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

 

If you do that, you can abandon all hope to get any more spren to take up bonds.

Fair enough point. However, I wonder if instead giving them anti-Voidlight would either cure them of Odium's Investiture corruption, or destroy them. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

16 minutes ago, The Stick said:

Fair enough point. However, I wonder if instead giving them anti-Voidlight would either cure them of Odium's Investiture corruption, or destroy them. 

The anti-Voidlight tone might have an effect on their corruption, but anti-Investiture is still anti-Investiture. They'd likely be destroyed.

 

7 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Yes, that looks like the obvious conclusion if they are short on forces. The Singers are already holding Iri. If they want access to an Oathgate, they already have it.

And Alethkar, and Riri, and Jah Keved, and probably Babatharnam and Shinovar... the singers have most of the Oathgates. They just can't do much with them because they've been locked from Urithiru's side (which can be undone, as Malata/Moash did, but they'd need to already be in Urithiru which seems like a problem for them).

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 9/24/2024 at 1:10 PM, The Stick said:

The way I see it, there is no way they can defend all three cities. Maybe they could do two, on a good day, but one attack is going to get through.

Thinking about this a bit while wearing my general staff hat, as Wayne would put it, that drives me to a conclusion. If you cannot defend then don't try. What else do you do? The enemy does not know that you know that they are coming. They are on ships. Ships are vulnerable to fire. That leads to a conclusion. Dalinar won't defend. He will attack. The best way looks to me to send all Windrunners against one fleet and destroy it before it arrives.

[Alcatur]

12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Thinking about this a bit while wearing my general staff hat, as Wayne would put it, that drives me to a conclusion. If you cannot defend then don't try. What else do you do? The enemy does not know that you know that they are coming. They are on ships. Ships are vulnerable to fire. That leads to a conclusion. Dalinar won't defend. He will attack. The best way looks to me to send all Windrunners against one fleet and destroy it before it arrives.

They do have aerial support from the Skybreakers though. This does limit what the Windrunners can do. 

 

Of the three targets:

Azimir is perhaps the easiest to defend in theory. However enemy attack here effectively blocks it from sending or receiving reinforcements. A protracted attack wave by wave could isolate armies here from helping others. As Coalition armies are still in the south this probably means there are many soldiers present there. 

Thaylen is very important strategically and quite vulnerable. It also grants control of crucial location. 

Narak is int he middle. Its an imoportant location and only link to many holdings (I think that the coalition still holds elements of southern Alethkar) but it could be defended easily. 

 

So, I think that an idea could be:

If there are enough Windrunners available, send them against Azimir force. If it can be routed and overwhelmed quickly in the Cognitive Realm, then it would free forces from Azimir theatre and its Oathgate. OTOH here there is very limited support for Windrunners as the force requires ships. Hmm, Reshi are in the Coalition, yes?  Maybe their ships could be used, but how to transport them to Cognitive realm? Time is limited. 

Narak force could be likely stalled by Stonewards and similar forces, maybe Edgerunners. Plateaus give considerable defensive defensive edge. Maybe Venli listeners would be willing to hit the fused from behind? I am fairly certain they are not a force Odium knows of. And they probably want Odium to win even less (humans can expect to live under Odium, while Listneres would likely be hunted down and used for rebirth). 

When Azimir is free, send those forces to aid Thaylen. If there aren't enough forces to hit fused in the cognitive realm, focus on the Narak Force first. 

 

 

On 9/24/2024 at 1:10 PM, The Stick said:

The way I see it, there is no way they can defend all three cities. Maybe they could do two, on a good day, but one attack is going to get through. The issue obviously is that that gives them access to a corrupted Oathgate to Urithiru. I would say that they have to abandon Narak, but in doing so use anti-Stormlight on that Oathgate spren to cover their backs.

I don't think that Narak Spren are corrupted. 

Edited September 27, 2024 by Alcatur

[Corgen]

3 hours ago, Alcatur said:

If there are enough Windrunners available, send them against Azimir force. If it can be routed and overwhelmed quickly in the Cognitive Realm, then it would free forces from Azimir theatre and its Oathgate. OTOH here there is very limited support for Windrunners as the force requires ships. Hmm, Reshi are in the Coalition, yes?  Maybe their ships could be used, but how to transport them to Cognitive realm? Time is limited. 

You can kill the Oathgate spren in Azimir with Anti-Voidlight, preventing them from transporting the army.

[alder24]

On 9/24/2024 at 1:10 PM, The Stick said:

I would say that they have to abandon Narak, but in doing so use anti-Stormlight on that Oathgate spren to cover their backs.

35 minutes ago, Corgen said:

You can kill the Oathgate spren in Azimir with Anti-Voidlight, preventing them from transporting the army.

How about we find a way to stop them that doesn't involve killing spren? Most spren still can't forgive humans for killing their kind during Recreance, if Radiants now start doing this just for minor strategic advantages then all spren will turn away from them and humanity will be left with no Surgebinders. Winning one battle is not worth losing the entire war.

[CtrlAltDepressed]

4 hours ago, alder24 said:

Winning one battle is not worth losing the entire war.

Not to mention, I dont know how any Order other than Lightweavers could make this ok within their oaths. 

 

Killing the oathgate spren is like killing a river because your enemy sails on it. These immortal creatures have devoted their entires existence (thus far), to service. It would be a terrible thing to kill them. 

[Corgen]

3 hours ago, CtrlAltDepressed said:

Killing the oathgate spren is like killing a river because your enemy sails on it. These immortal creatures have devoted their entires existence (thus far), to service. It would be a terrible thing to kill them. 

Yes, but now they've become traitors, just like Moash.

8 hours ago, alder24 said:

Most spren still can't forgive humans for killing their kind during Recreance, if Radiants now start doing this just for minor strategic advantages then all spren will turn away from them and humanity will be left with no Surgebinders. Winning one battle is not worth losing the entire war.

As a counterargument, most of the spren generally dislike Sja-anat. In any case, I don’t think such actions are in line with the first ideal.

[Belgarad]

Azimir seems the easiest to defend with conventional forces.  They've built defenses around the platform where you could load it up with archers and other incendiary weapons, then nuke em as they teleport in.  Also, I'd want Jasnah there to help with the burning.  

 

I would send the Windrunners to counter the Skybreakers.  Thaylen is a naval power, far more dangerous at sea than on land.  They need to gather whatever they can of their fleet and attack the oncoming fleet with air support from the Windrunners.  I would send Dalinar there to act as a battery for the Windrunners.

 

Everyone else defends Narak.  Put Adolin in charge of the defenses there.  Maybe have Rlain or someone else reach out to Venli and the Listeners for help.  Also, a small garrison force should be left at Urithiru in case the Sibling is mistaken on how invulnerable it is.

Edited September 28, 2024 by Belgarad