Long Game 100 - Death is Lighter Than a Feather

[Aeoryi she/her]

51 minutes ago, Stick. said:

i cant apparently, sadge

 

No dayvig sad

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

8 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Come sit peacefully in the corner with me while Stick burns the world 

i dont think i particularly want to thank you. nice profile pic though. 

[Aeternum]

1 hour ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

i dont think i particularly want to thank you. nice profile pic though. 

Thanks!

You should, we'll have a picnic and everything.

[Kasimir he/him]

15 hours ago, Mat said:

I'll just wave my sword around ig

Listen, you are doing a valuable contribution it's not your fault TUA has not understood the glory of dueling rules

15 hours ago, Aeternum said:

What if I Shield you first

1. In a world Stick and I don't link, if you Shield me, Stick's auto goes through, so that's a loss for you.

2. If Stick and I link and win the 60% flip, then essentially you lose. Stick and I have different max stats so it is pretty unlikely you are beating it unless Aeo is also Aes Sedai. If Aeo is also Aes Sedai, our odds at Night changes anyway so I don't particularly care to game out that world.

16 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Shield duels will never result in two people shielded. Unless you've somehow got a three person chain going on. Winner will be decided by all the OoA tiebreaker rules, then roleblock the other person before they can do their own shield.

So, my actual V!Stick thoughts in my GM PM I never put in thread:

On 5/31/2024 at 1:47 PM, Kasimir said:

Aeo's two channeller world is slightly plausible here except catching Aet on the concentration issue seems ridiculously specific and the idea E!them would plan this out together and ask you about it (Stick, Aet) seems weird honestly. I know you can't comment, I'm just thinking aloud.

Tbh I've been lying about my stats hoping to catch Aet offguard with a quiet Shield, but TUA's ruling indicates that a three person chain might end up with both of you shielded, which is no bueno, so:

15 hours ago, Stick. said:

hmm alright aet and aeo are both outed @Kasimir just to be clear we are linking to use a shield weave on aet and also exeing aet

Sent in link and Shield order. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

@Stick. You want me to send in an Amrylin votejack also? I can but am just noting that if I do, Shield on my end drops to 55% success rate. (Edit: To be clear, Aet is not getting a Compulsion off unless we fail to shield, i.e. the 60% flip fails.)

Edited to add 2: @Mat Yo btw did you put in a PM order last Turn? If not, can you do it this Turn?

@RoyalBeeMage Feel free to join in if you want to.

Edited June 1, 2024 by Kasimir

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Feel free to join in if you want to.

what with the PM?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

what with the PM?

Yeah, sending in a PM order. If you don't die, which is what I'm hoping for, fingers crossed, burn something to RNGesus, then you can send PMs freely next Turn.

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, sending in a PM order. If you don't die, which is what I'm hoping for, fingers crossed, burn something to RNGesus, then you can send PMs freely next Turn.

so create a pm with you and mat?

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

so create a pm with you and mat?

No you can't do that unless you can channel a weave.

What you can do is just send in an order to create PMs. This is a physical action. When it goes through, next Turn, you can create any number of one on one PMs you like.

Next Turn, would likely ask for a PM with you yeah, if you don't mind!

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

No you can't do that unless you can channel a weave.

What you can do is just send in an order to create PMs. This is a physical action. When it goes through, next Turn, you can create any number of one on one PMs you like.

Next Turn, would likely ask for a PM with you yeah, if you don't mind!

not at all. i think i understand the whole pm rule. might want to re-read the rules later

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

not at all. i think i understand the whole pm rule. might want to re-read the rules later

Np. It's under Housekeeping:

Quote

PMing requires a physical action. If you use your action to PM, it will allow you to PM anyone freely next turn. You cannot use this to open group PMs, though they may be opened by other means. PMs made during this turn cannot be used in future turns, though if you take the PM action again you may use the same PM for convenience.

 

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Np. It's under Housekeeping:

 

oh, ok. thank you for that clarification.

[Stick. she/her]

55 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Stick. You want me to send in an Amrylin votejack also? I can but am just noting that if I do, Shield on my end drops to 55% success rate. (Edit: To be clear, Aet is not getting a Compulsion off unless we fail to shield, i.e. the 60% flip fails.)

sure, mine will go through most likely anyway 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Stick. said:

sure, mine will go through most likely anyway 

To be clear you understand how this works:

1. If we link, TUA flips a coin for who gets to use the link.

2. If you win, you have a 60% chance your Shield works. My Shield does not count.

3. If I win, I have a 55% chance my Shield works. Your Shield does not count.

4. As long as the Shield works, we beat Aet.

This is in link world.

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

To be clear you understand how this works:

1. If we link, TUA flips a coin for who gets to use the link.

2. If you win, you have a 60% chance your Shield works. My Shield does not count.

3. If I win, I have a 55% chance my Shield works. Your Shield does not count.

4. As long as the Shield works, we beat Aet.

This is in link world.

so either way there is a more than 50% chance that we beat aet? also if aet gets voted out then would I still get the chance to die?

[Kasimir he/him]

31 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

so either way there is a more than 50% chance that we beat aet? also if aet gets voted out then would I still get the chance to die?

Technically what you are looking for is something like:

P(Beat Aet) = P(Stick win Link & Shield works) + P(Kas wins Link & Shield works)
= 0.5 x 0.6 + 0.5 x 0.55
= 0.3 + 0.275
=0.575

In the world I don't votejack, it's a straight-up 0.6 chance. You can argue that there's no real point in getting a 0.025 chance more of success, which is fair as that's kind of small.

If Aet is voted out, there's a 50% chance you die, yes. I'm sorry, but Aet is Evil so we kind of need to do this.

Edited to add:

It's not the end of the world if we don't beat Aet honestly. If we don't beat Aet, we exe Aet, then hope you don't die. Aet Shields Stick. We go into the night at either 4/1 or 3/1. 

During the Night,

P(Aeo dies) = P(I win Link & Balefire works)
= 0.5 x 0.15
=0.075

It is overwhelmingly unlikely I can balefire Aeo in that world.

So likely Aeo kills me, and you all go 3/1 or 2/1 into the Day.

If Aeo has no votejack, then all you all need to do is to vote Aeo to win. If Aeo has a votejack, then we need Stick have broken the Shield at Night, then Compel Aeo to self-vote in the Day to win. Given my balefire odds are awful, I think Stick should break the Shield at Night instead.

There's a whole bunch of cointosses here and there but basically we have a fairly decent chance of winning overall. Several key decision points to takeaway, i.e. tldr;

DP1. If Stick and I Link, we have between a 0.575 to 0.6 chance of stopping Aet from Shielding Stick. If Stick Shields on her own, this goes down to her stats v. Aet's. We don't know enough about Aet's stats IMO, but Stick has three stats maxxed, so may stand a decent chance of beating Aet in a Shield duel.

DP2. If Stick is Shielded, I can link with her for a 0.075 chance of killing Aeo, or she can take a 0.6 chance to break the Shield. She absolutely has the stats to use Compulsion in the Day.

In my view, the choice at DP2 is clear - better to break the Shield. ( @The Unknown Ajah Can Stick Concentrate to break a Shield btw?)

At DP1, less clear, as the difference between 0.575 and 0.6 is really minimal. I'm just correcting Stick in case she had the mistaken idea a link means both Shields go through - that's not how it works. To be clear, I currently have a link with Stick to Shield Aet order and a votejack order.

Edited June 1, 2024 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

Yea dw ive asked a million clarification questions in my gm pm LOL seems fine to me

[Kasimir he/him]

43 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Yea dw ive asked a million clarification questions in my gm pm LOL seems fine to me

I gotchu sis o7

We can worry about the best cour

Edited to add:

Btw am curious why you said:

17 hours ago, Stick. said:

hmm alright aet and aeo are both outed @Kasimir just to be clear we are linking to use a shield weave on aet and also exeing aet

I'm not sure 'both outed' is it in my head but yeah I'm quite sold on E!Aeo.

Edited June 1, 2024 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

aeo has more or less wolfclaimed lol her last few posts were openwolfing

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Stick. said:

aeo has more or less wolfclaimed lol her last few posts were openwolfing

I didn't really consider them openwoofing but yeah the evidence is overwhelming your Honour  The prosecution rests its case, having fulfilled both the standard of proof and the burden of proof.

Edited to add:

Obligatory

Spoiler

 

Edited June 1, 2024 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Technically what you are looking for is something like:

P(Beat Aet) = P(Stick win Link & Shield works) + P(Kas wins Link & Shield works)
= 0.5 x 0.6 + 0.5 x 0.55
= 0.3 + 0.275
=0.575

In the world I don't votejack, it's a straight-up 0.6 chance. You can argue that there's no real point in getting a 0.025 chance more of success, which is fair as that's kind of small.

If Aet is voted out, there's a 50% chance you die, yes. I'm sorry, but Aet is Evil so we kind of need to do this.

Edited to add:

It's not the end of the world if we don't beat Aet honestly. If we don't beat Aet, we exe Aet, then hope you don't die. Aet Shields Stick. We go into the night at either 4/1 or 3/1. 

During the Night,

P(Aeo dies) = P(I win Link & Balefire works)
= 0.5 x 0.15
=0.075

It is overwhelmingly unlikely I can balefire Aeo in that world.

So likely Aeo kills me, and you all go 3/1 or 2/1 into the Day.

If Aeo has no votejack, then all you all need to do is to vote Aeo to win. If Aeo has a votejack, then we need Stick have broken the Shield at Night, then Compel Aeo to self-vote in the Day to win. Given my balefire odds are awful, I think Stick should break the Shield at Night instead.

There's a whole bunch of cointosses here and there but basically we have a fairly decent chance of winning overall. Several key decision points to takeaway, i.e. tldr;

DP1. If Stick and I Link, we have between a 0.575 to 0.6 chance of stopping Aet from Shielding Stick. If Stick Shields on her own, this goes down to her stats v. Aet's. We don't know enough about Aet's stats IMO, but Stick has three stats maxxed, so may stand a decent chance of beating Aet in a Shield duel.

DP2. If Stick is Shielded, I can link with her for a 0.075 chance of killing Aeo, or she can take a 0.6 chance to break the Shield. She absolutely has the stats to use Compulsion in the Day.

In my view, the choice at DP2 is clear - better to break the Shield. ( @The Unknown Ajah Can Stick Concentrate to break a Shield btw?)

At DP1, less clear, as the difference between 0.575 and 0.6 is really minimal. I'm just correcting Stick in case she had the mistaken idea a link means both Shields go through - that's not how it works. To be clear, I currently have a link with Stick to Shield Aet order and a votejack order.

Yes, you can concentrate to break a Shield. 

[Kasimir he/him]

21 hours ago, Mat said:

I'll just wave my sword around ig

Tfw you are the one Fighter in a party of arcane casters:

Spoiler

Though tbf Bee's also rn like: "Yep I'm just going to stand right here, my Aes Sedai is Evil y'all gotta murder her that's just the way it's gonna be."

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tfw you are the one Fighter in a party of arcane casters:

  Hide contents

Though tbf Bee's also rn like: "Yep I'm just going to stand right here, my Aes Sedai is Evil y'all gotta murder her that's just the way it's gonna be."

yeah that is exsactly the case. i am would even help you end my aes sedai if I could. though since I have no chanaling power I cant. though why cant I? what stops a warder from being a chanaler? @The Unknown Ajah what happened to all the aes sedai bonded by the asha'men. couldn't I have also been a chanaler?

Edited June 1, 2024 by RoyalBeeMage

[Kasimir he/him]

@Stick.

This backfired the last time so hoping it doesn't now

Tfw u combine powers to fight Evil!!

Spoiler

 

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tfw u combine powers to fight Evil!!

 

meanwhile the evil's bodyguard stands by and allows the combining of powers and even tried to help in any way they can.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Cycle closed a bit ago. Got caught up in the write-up.

9 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

yeah that is exsactly the case. i am would even help you end my aes sedai if I could. though since I have no chanaling power I cant. though why cant I? what stops a warder from being a chanaler? @The Unknown Ajah what happened to all the aes sedai bonded by the asha'men. couldn't I have also been a chanaler?

Shhh, I haven't finished WoT yet.