Mid-Range Game 3: When Chalklings Attack

[Tulir he/him]

I'm going to throw a vote on Aaron F (Aonar). He's usually more active than this, I want to try to draw him out to say something. I bet you have a diagram, Aonar, so what suspicions do you have?

He has been quieter than normal, and he does always have a diagram.  Jain hasn't posted yet this cycle, which I find odd.

[Ashiok]

THis cycle has not been productive, and I'm going to bed. G'night people.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Sorry, I've had a pretty busy day. I also started watching Zero Punctuation videos, so the free time I usually spend on 17th Shard were sacrificed for a greater good.   

 

I don't have much to say. I'm too muddled right now by hay fever (yes, it's spring here in Australia, and Pandas do suffer from hay fever) to make a rational vote or analysis (both of which I'm not particularly good at), or even put up a vote chart or do some RP.

 

Edit: I'm going to spike every part of your pathetic body, and then proceed to throw those (possibly) charged spikes into a chasm just to spite you, colour editor.

Edited October 23, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Aonar he/him]

I do have a diagram, and I have been quieter than normal. Between rereading and going over Newan's twinborn rules (that game is insanely complicated) and rock climbing on a bad knee (terrible idea, by the way) I really haven't had a lot of time to stay up to date.

 

Give me a minute, and I'll have something together though...

 

My diagram doesn't tell me much. There is an incredibly useful function on there (NodeXL if anyone's interested) the automatically calculates which groups of nodes are most likely to be connected, based on their connections to each other and neighboring nodes.

 

That suggests that Jain, Rlint, Chase, and Wyatt are the most likely to be connected in some way to Dui. However, given the incredibly small sample size, (Dui was extremely inactive, and killed the first cycle) this really doesn't mean anything at all.

 

I might comment more later, after I've had a little more time to think over the last few cycle's events.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Also, Joel, I'm going to have to remember your argument for the next time I'm an Eliminator. It's exceedingly high-handed to put yourself in a position where you are the standard for which innocent and guilt should be measured, and neatly slipping the burden of proof onto everyone else while exempting yourself from it (so, exactly why should you be exempt?) and citing 'vague reasons'. I'm sure it's a great way of figuring things out from your viewpoint, but as we don't have access to that kind of information, it's hardly encouraging from a viewpoint that doesn't have access to your information. Very useful for an Eliminator, I'd imagine. Care to enlighten the rest of us on what those reasons are?

 

Alright then, I guess I should Explain. A Lot of how I decide whether or not somebody is Evil is just a gut feeling. I can turn that into Logic, but they won't all make sense. I've also changed some of my views due to today's events.

 

So the players, Minus myself, Dui and Matt.

 

These guys I think are innocent

 

(Alvron) Ronald: Voted for Dui for being Inactive. My Positions on the Dui Voters can be found in this Post.

 

(Tulir) Rlint, Voted for Dui.

 

(Mailliw73) Will, originally voted for Alv. Proposed the Split Plan.

 

(Wyrmhero) Wyatt, voted for Dui, as well as made plans for the LoW.

 

(pir2h) Chase Tearing, This Post. I figured that if the PM included the link to the Forgotten Doc, she would have followed it, and asked her compatriots instead.

 

(Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, Voted for Dui as well.

__________________________________________________

Neutrals and Suspicious

 

(Araris Valerian) Tavi, He simply voted for the newest player. This doesn't lean either way on my list. He also proposed the Alpha version of Mailliw's Plan, but the Forgotten would likely know that Would come up eventually. So he's Neutral, likely good right now.

 

(AonarFaileas) Aaron, As of Cycle one, he didn't have any concrete plans or Suspicions. This is how he always plays, so Neutral.

 

(Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, Discussed the Pro's and Con's of The Split plan. He made points that either could make, so he stayed Neutral

 

(Gamma Fiend) Dig, No feelings abouthim at all. Perfect Neutral.

 

(Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, Voted for Will, who hadn't posted yet. Another 'Neutral' Action

 

 (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, Failed to make his usual Rant. Made a Voting Graph.

 

So my two main Suspicions right now are Jain and Twei. I'm going to vote for Jain again, because of His Rant, as well as his continued making of Vote Lists. He posting enough to fly under the radar, without seeming Suspicious. If he had Ranted, I would have completely believed in his Innocence.

As for Why I amnot included in the list, I have evidence to my innocence in the form of a PM from Sart. But I can't show that.

Edited October 23, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Alvron]

Placing vote on Rlint.  Simply a gut feeling but it feels right.

 

Current Vote Tally.

 

Rlint (1) Wyatt, Chase, Ronald

Will (1) Tavi

Joel (1) Samuel Kessen

Chase (2) Wyatt, Jain

Samuel Kessen (1) Dig

Aaron F (1) Will

Wyatt (1) Chase

Jain (2) Rlint, Joel

 

Non-voters: Aaron F, Aaron R, Tory Farth.

 

Edit: Updated votes

Edited October 23, 2014 by Alvron

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

How many times do I have to say this? When I rant, I tend to be lynched. Take QF3 for example. I got lynched on the first day from a single rant. I don't intend to repeat that again. In fact, I don't intend to wildcard ever again.

 

Admittedly, I made that rant after you reminded me to, Joe. A little too much frustration slipped out as I was making that post. Oh, the hypocrisy.   

 

It's also funny how I'm one of your frequent Eliminator kills, Joe. you tend to be quite instrumental in some of my deaths. Especially the lynchings.

 

As for Why I amnot included in the list, I have evidence to my innocence in the form of a PM from Sart. But I can't show that.

 

What a funny statement. Normally, you would have slapped an emoticon, or at least put an exclamation mark or something after it, to make it more of a joke. But you haven't. It sounds half-hearted. A lie? Or am I just misinterpreting?  

 

Chase, could you contribute something other than RP? Also, why did you use Forbiddence/Warding? Most importantly, why did you jump from a potential bandwagon on Tulir onto Wyrm when it failed?

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I was hoping to come online today and be able to remove my vote, but I don't like that Chase's response was basically just to counter-vote. That's a shame, because I'd rather avoid a tie vote like this, but I don't really see a reason to switch. A vote for someone else would be a vote for Jain at this point, and I'm not really suspicious of Jain at the moment. Not more than Chase, certainly.

 

With only 8 hours (or so) left in the day, it's doubtful that anyone else will post, considering the last few Cycles we've had no-one online during this time. So, we currently have a tie between Jain and Chase. Smart, what happens in the event of a tie for the lynch, in this game?

Edited October 23, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Dig had just finished the two graves for Matt and his silent companion who had attached themselves to the doomed man. He was sweating furiously underneath the hot Nebrask sun, exhausted from the tedious work. He took a moment to lament the fallen. The Matt fellow had seemed a bit extreme, but the other one, the Artist, -- Dig frowned and furrowed his brow, blanking on the man's name -- had seemed to have his own sort of sad story. And now it was forever untold, buried beneath the arid Nebraskan soil.

The sun was starting to slowly set in the sky, reminding Dig of the next grizzly task at hand. There was still to be another decision to be reached. The group needed to continue their hunt against the Forgotten hiding amongst them. Secrets that were buried deep under the weight of lies and subterfuge. If there was one thing Dig liked, it was digging to the bottom of things. It was like a hole. A meta-physical hole.

 

He smiled. "Dig a hole, dig a hole."

For the first time all day, the words finally brought him joy.

Well, it looks like we're stuck at a tie between Jain and Chase with only an hour or two left to go, I think. I'm not exactly sure which of them warrants more suspicion, still, and definitely don't want to be the one to be the tie-breaker off of no real suspicions so far. And changing my vote onto somebody else would just bring it to a three way tie at this point, and that would accomplish absolutely nothing. I unfortunately haven't had much time for too much analysis of the posts and votes either. I have a slight gut feeling about Joe for the moment, but as mentioned above, a vote on him wouldn't accomplish much right now.

So it looks like nobody has objected to the idea of just having those who didn't LoW last night do it tonight, which while may be over-spending our Action Uses on defense, it's the best bet for now until we can get how many we need narrowed down, exactly. We just need to make sure we didn't have too many people do that last night, and have enough to alternate every cycle first.

 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

What a funny statement. Normally, you would have slapped an emoticon, or at least put an exclamation mark or something after it, to make it more of a joke. But you haven't. It sounds half-hearted. A lie? Or am I just misinterpreting?  

Originally I had an Exclamation Mark, But I erased it. It didn't feel right.

[Sart he/him]

Everyone seemed to be suspicious. "That woman might be a murderer. That man with a stuffed panda is giving everyone strange looks," they argued. Still, the camp couldn't reach a consensus. They decided to sleep on who to kill, hoping the morning would give them a better idea.

Will couldn't sleep though. He was tossing and turning, anxious about the following day. Eventually, he decided to patrol the camp, to see if any wild chalklings were coming. He looked out and didn't see anything. It was rather boring. As he was turning back to his tent, he noticed something odd. The barrel of acid was missing. Without that, the platoon would have to rely solely on Rithmatics to repel the chalklings. Unfortunately, he didn't realize the thieves were right behind him. There wasn't much time to think. One of them picked up a rock, and swung it at Will's head. Will screamed as he fell to the ground, alerting the whole camp to his predicament. It was too late though; he bled to death before the camp arrived. The thieves had merged in with the crowd, and the bucket was nowhere in site. It was going to be a long night.

Will was a Rithmatist!

Vote Count:
Jain: Joel, Rlint (2)
Will: Tavi (1)
Rlint: Roland (1)
Aaron Falaise: Will (1)
Chase: Jain, Wyatt (2)
Joel: Kessen (1)
Kessen: Dig (1)
Wyatt: Chase (1)

Player List;

 

1. (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask
2. (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
3. (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
4. (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal.
5. (Tulir) Rlint, a Dirty Conner a Policeman.
6. (Mailliw73) Will, a Blonde Male. Rithmatist
7. (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.
8. (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
9. (Elend'sSecondCousin) Dui, a JoSeun Immigrant who eats chalk. Forgotten
10. (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
11. (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger.
12. (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer.
13. (Metacognition) Matt, a man seen through the eyes of others. Artist
14. (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
15. (Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, A Baseball Coach

This cycle will end at 9:00 AM Central Time on Saturday.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Alvron

[Wyrmhero he/him]

So we're now two Rithmatists down, but hopefully we're not in too dangerous a position. We're also safe with regards to Wild Chalkings, as well. Unless Meta also did a Line of Warding first Cycle and was the tipping point for our defence (highly unlikely, for an Artist), then we should still have enough with our current plans. If everyone who used a Line of Warding on Cycle 1 does it again this Cycle, then we'll be safe today.

 

Mailliw's death is similar to Meta's, in that it's an experienced player, so it's not so surprising. Vote-wise, this Cycle Araris voted for Mailliw, and Mailliw voted for Aonar, and last Cycle he voted for Alvron. I don't think that tells us much though. I'm doubtful that anyone would be that obvious with regards to this attack. Unless it's a double bluff, in which case it's anyone's guess. So either it's for his planning (in which case I'd possibly look at Gamma and Aonar, since they were against it, but I'm not sure), his experience in general, or his votes. I'm doubting it's the third, but the first two don't really tell us anything about who did it.

 

As for this Cycle's current vote, I'm still looking for more of a reason from Chase other than a reactive vote against me. Ashiok also noted that the previous Cycle was not productive, but didn't try to make it so, which I find strange, so I wouldn't mind an explanation for that.

Edited October 23, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Ashiok]

School. I won't have more than five mins to read through and make a post at any point till 6 o clock, then I have HW. Chase has been cleared in my mind because no forgotten would use LoF or LoW night 1, especially when they weren't on the list for LoWs... I'm not suspicious of Jain right now, he's playing normally. Also, a breaker right at the end of the cycle would have been suspicious, 

 

Oh wait... Just thought of something. Jain hasn't made his customary Grr! Team good again ! post yet. Strange.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

School. I won't have more than five mins to read through and make a post at any point till 6 o clock, then I have HW. Chase has been cleared in my mind because no forgotten would use LoF or LoW night 1, especially when they weren't on the list for LoWs... I'm not suspicious of Jain right now, he's playing normally. Also, a breaker right at the end of the cycle would have been suspicious, 

 

Oh wait... Just thought of something. Jain hasn't made his customary Grr! Team good again ! post yet. Strange.

 

Thanks for the reply. Removing my vote from Ashiok. Now, not sure who to vote for again, other than to place it back onto Chase and hope he doesn't just give a reaction vote and nothing else like last time.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Oh wait... Just thought of something. Jain hasn't made his customary Grr! Team good again ! post yet. Strange.

 

I'm starting to think no-one reads my posts...   

 

Look at my last post on Cycle 2.

[Ashiok]

Well... Technically that was once. Most times you make the rant, it turns true, and it's not suspicious to anybody who's played with you before. This way is sorta suspicious... Just saying.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Well... Technically that was once. Most times you make the rant, it turns true, and it's not suspicious to anybody who's played with you before. This way is sorta suspicious... Just saying.

 

I'm starting to think Ashiok doesn't read posts...

 

I've already brought up this exact thing.

 

Onto Analysis! I'm moving Ashiok out of My Trusted List, and into my Neutral/Suspicious List. The Way he's been posting makes it seem like he hasn't been reading the Thread much, just voting for who somebody Else tells him to. As such, My vote is on him for today.

 

@Chase: Your RP is admirable. But it would be better if you told us why you're voting the way you are, rather than just Saying you're Suspicious. You also don't need to retract your votes from the previous Day.

[Aonar he/him]

It seems that there are five players people seem to be directing the majority of their suspicions towards over the last couple cycles. Rlint, Chase, Roddy, Joel and Jain.

 

Rlint threw the last vote for Dui on the day he was lynched. Depending on how Meta understood Maill's plan, he may have also been Meta's target the night Meta died.

 

Chase has been making a few strange decisions, and keeping her posts confined almost exclusively to RP, making her difficult to read. However, she's also a new player, so things can be excused, to a point.

 

Roddy has been acting a little inconsistent, and ignoring some things that he maybe shouldn't be. He also would have been Maill's target the night he died. He does claim to be very busy with school though, so once again, we can be lenient, to a point.

 

Joel has been acting somewhat unusually, trying to take charge and doing a fair bit more analysis than usual. Some of his analysis has been vague and obviously biased. He has at least been trying to provoke discussion though, and putting himself out there to the point he has would be dangerous for an Eliminator, especially when they are already down one of their number. This most definitely does not discount him, however.

 

As for Jain, he has been pointed out as suspicious for the same reasons he is always pointed out as being suspicious. Namely, his consistently inconsistent and changeable playstyle.

 

At the moment, my greatest suspicions are on Rlint and Roddy.

Edited October 24, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I am going to put a vote on Chase, she really hasn't contributed very much at this point and I agree that it is a bit frustrating she is only using RP and not explaining her own actions. Maybe being the current selection for the lynch will provoke a more comprehensive response.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Araris Valerian

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

It seems that there are five people seem to be directing the majority of their suspicions towards over the last couple cycles. Rlint, Chase, Roddy, Joel and Jain.

<Words>

Chase has been making a few strange decisions, and keeping his posts confined almost exclusively to RP, making him difficult to read. However, he's also a new player, so things can be excused, to a point.

<Words>

Joel has been acting somewhat unusually, trying to take charge and doing a fair bit more analysis than usual. Some of his analysis has been vague and obviously biased. He has at least been trying to provoke discussion though, and putting himself out there to the point he has would be dangerous for an Eliminator, especially when they are already down one of their number. This most definitely does not discount him, however.

<Words>

Could you rephrase that First Sentence? I can't tell if you're saying they're the Most Suspicios, or casting the Most Suspicions.

 

Chase is a She, as she has said before.

 

The Last couple of Games (All of them) I Haven't helped much. Being out there and active, but mainly following the crowd. This time I'm actually trying to Help.

 

EDIT: Just a Reminder for Current LoM/LoW Assignments:

 

Lines of Warding:

1. (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask
2. (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
3. (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
4. (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal.
5. (Tulir) Rlint, a Dirty Conner a Policeman.
6. (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.

Lines of Making:

1. (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
2. (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
3. (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger.
4. (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer.
5. (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
6. (Ashiok) Roddy, A Baseball Coach

Also Jain, who did you Target Last Cycle? You Were Number 7. You didn't have a Counterpart to Target.

Edited October 24, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Ashiok]

1. Haven't voted yet at all

2. Didn't check to see if anybody posted between the night and cycle 3 because there was no vote change. Isn't that when that whole thing went down or am I just sleep deprived

3. I'm sleep deprived. Good night.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Also Jain, who did you Target Last Cycle? You Were Number 7. You didn't have a Counterpart to Target.

 

Ash. He was protecting something.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Apologies for being less active than usual. I've finally found the time and energy to sit down and have a proper look over the game. As such, this post will backtrack a little.

 

We seem to have settled on a workable Line of Warding pattern of alternating teams. I'm entirely happy with this; even if the divisions are (largely) known, there's enough of a buffer that the Forgotten would need to go far out of their way to force a chalking kill.

 

In the previous cycle, Araris argued that we should use less, to allow for more Lines of Making and to get more information when/if the chalkings break through. How would this information be gathered? If we use a specific group, it becomes difficult to distinguish between a misbehaving Forgotten, a Non-Rithmatist, and someone hit by a Line of Vigour. If we don't use a specific group, we can't draw solid conclusions about any one player, because (at least at the time of warding) there's an inherent uncertainty in the number of wards that will actually be used.

 

I'm not particularly suspicious of Rlint. In my opinion, the late-vote-on-eliminator argument has come up often enough in previous games that it becomes (to use Joe's terminology) a 'neutral' action.

 

Chase has received quite a lot of suspicion for her RP posts. Asking for more clarity is fine, but if she were in fact an Eliminator, I expect her team would have asked her to be more specific in her posts. The fact she's held suspicion for so long really suggests to me that she's innocent.

 

The idea of killing an opposite number is interesting. The idea being that all the loose ends are tied up - no need for the killer (or potentially a LoV user) to fake a Line of Making result or explain a lack of a protective line. This doesn't quite work if we read the cycle 2 writeup as Dui doing the killing, though, since he was paired with Tavi.

 

edit: more blue

Edited October 24, 2014 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I'm still hoping that Chase will give us a reason for suspicions, even if its just getting people to say stuff, but I'm going to remove the vote because I feel I've wasted a little too much time on that. I do note that we haven't heard from Kas this Cycle yet, and even though he said he was busy, it has been almost 24 hours since then. From what I can tell from our conversational PMs, he isn't online much at the moment. We also haven't heard from Gamma yet, despite the fact that he's definitely been online. I think I will vote for Kas for the moment, since Gamma's already got a vote on him.

 

The idea of killing an opposite number is interesting. The idea being that all the loose ends are tied up - no need for the killer (or potentially a LoV user) to fake a Line of Making result or explain a lack of a protective line. This doesn't quite work if we read the cycle 2 writeup as Dui doing the killing, though, since he was paired with Tavi.

 

I would doubt that killing opposites is what is going on, considering this would be one of the first things that we would think of. Although, admittedly, it's quite possible we'd immediately dismiss it out-of-hand, and the Forgotten are taking advantage of that. At the same time though, I don't think Meta's death tells us that they're not doing that, considering Meta is a dangerous player, or perhaps it just means that the plan was developed afterwards. And even if it is what they're trying, noticing that fact may have changed their plans.

 

Sorry, I think I've second-guessed a little too much there. I think there's still not quite enough information to come to a conclusion there, but their reaction could perhaps tell us something (although figuring out if it's a reaction may be a little difficult). It will be interesting to see which 'half' of the players get attacked this Cycle. I think that will be more important than anything else, at this stage in the game, as it could suggest which side they're on, or their overall plans at least with regards to how we're setting the camp defences up.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir he/him]

I'm back from the doctor, in a great deal of pain (probably an 8 on the scale of 10 with 10 being 'STORM MY LIFE!' and 1 being 'Hurrah, all's super!), and with an army of painkillers and muscle relaxants. I am not going to be useful for the rest of this cycle, and what's more, it's not really my priority at the moment. Sorry about that.

 

What I am going to do is to take the painkillers, swallow the muscle relaxants, sleep, and hope to Braize the pain stops (could be RSI...) before my misery level rises any further.

 

Goodbye.