Long Game 99: Scourges of the Saturated Seas

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Yeah I went for a zephyr last night after everyone was asking why I didn't go for a spore on the first day, but I'm not sure what to do with it. The spores are kind of overwhelming for me. Which sounds bad, but this is my first game so it's hard enough to try to keep up with everyone, not to mention the spores and all the possibilities with them.

Dude why didn't you say this earlier when everyone was breaking their brains on D2.

To be clear everyone:

Either Aet is lying here or TJ died without using Zephyr. Pretty much unescapable because of the delta — no missing Zephyr spore.

[Aeternum]

Not gonna lie I didn't realize it was that important.

[Kasimir he/him]

EDITED TO ADD:

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

(Rn my order is on TBB, but am open to changing it)

Probably pretty awkward as I'm beginning to question you all over again, but bracketing that, I think TKN makes sense here. Have not had bandwidth to look at the comparator games but if you bracket meta and do vote profiling, I'd argue TKN is probably the most sus of those on the D1 5-train on Aeo. Also generally not of the view the 5-train is pure. (JNV has also reminded me a missed kill is not impossible for TKN which harks back to your Barron theory.)

My alternative hypotheses do include Aet and you as I feel your WiM has been lacking and you have been more reactive than I'm comfortable with. (Wrt to Aet on acronyms — WiM = "Want it More" — it refers to a player's drive and motivation to play/solve. Aman sometimes lacks it when Evil.) Your more recent posts/PMs are making me yet again reconsider on you though, since they feel more positive. 

IMO Drake is correct that we are at a turning point. I think if I go meta-blind just in case it is driving me off, and re-examine, then more opens up.

EDIT2:

52 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Not gonna lie I didn't realize it was that important.

Fair, it happens!

Edited to add 3:

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

Oh definitely not haha. I understand about half of what everyone says when there's not tons of abbreviations involved (while we're here, what does FNG mean? And the flipping thing is getting me a bit confused if anyone would care to explain it). My TJ vote was also out of thinking I need to vote every day, so I just kinda picked whatever was the most recent vote and went with it. I think Drake said TJ, then a bunch of posts later that weren't votes, I also said TJ.

Sorry, missed this as was scanning the thread on mobile earlier having just woken up.

FNG = Freakin' New Guy. It's the play you only get to pull once (Aeo tried this, technically Araris tried this too, my E!team in my first ever game on this site told me to pull it as well) where you mask your capabilities, enter a game, and pretend to not know anything about what's going on. The aim is to get players to give you an easy pass to avoid suspicion and blindside them. Of course you can only do it once.

Flipping is just another word for 'exeing', but it can be method-agnostic, i.e. shooting TKN/TBB with Crimson is also flipping TBB. All flipping means is that one way or another, you want to see the player's role and alignment show up in the write-up, so you know for sure. The discussion about pre-flipping on D1 was just that sometimes Evil players know how a player is going to flip already (since they know everyone's alignments) and so may slip up by having unwarranted confidence/knowledge of a player's flip. The other issue with regard to pre-flipping is that it's just bad Village play in general but there's a fine line between 'good Villager' and 'has the time to do it.' 

We try to vote the most sus player (with asterisks - I was not sure I fully believed E!Bee but also felt there was something to be said for people getting Bee out of their systems because you don't want to be a whisker away from losing at 3/3 and still debating Bee, hence my being willing to have Bee tied with Faerie.) However, even then, it's usually bad Village play to 'pre-flip' them and immediately assume they'll flip Evil and work on that assumption. Normally you'll want to try to work out what happens if they flip Village, which was the point of the 'what if Bee flips V though' discussion earlier - I just felt we weren't sufficiently clear and a lot of that seemed like us circling the same player pools without being able to go/have a solid indicator of "Okay, we are thoroughly wrong on this profile, and need to go look elsewhere." 

Maybe Bee still needed to be exed - that's a fair criticism. But it's still not a good sign if that's the best we can do RE: "oh ig Faerie next" (had Bee been exed) without some reflection on whether we were looking the right way or not in the first place. 

@DrakeMarshall is correct that things are getting tight for us, which means we need to put in actions and start claiming. I will remind everyone that if Aman misshoots tonight, we go into tomorrow 4/3. This means we lose if we misexe tomorrow. (We are currently 6/3 - assuming a standard Elim team of 3. I agree with Drake that it's unlikely to be otherwise - Sart loves to use the squareroot rule but probably has rounded down. Even if there's 2, we have to play on the assumption there's 3 because that's the worst case scenario.) 

What I am saying is everyone needs to buckle up and pony up because it's gonna get rough. Consider using your spores because you may not get a second chance tomorrow if Aman misshoots. It's true we can try to be lucky (wrt blocking or redirecting a kill tomorrow Night, if we end up being 3/3). I'm just reminding everyone two things:

A. For tonight, keep in mind you don't want to hoard indefinitely either. Spores unused by the end of the game do not help your team. I'm not saying use it tonight, I'm saying consider using it tonight if not tomorrow Night.

B. In the event I'm dead that when we're at near-lylo (cf. 3/3 or 4/3), then you may need to prepare to start claiming everything. Holding on to info when it's do or die time for the Village is unhelpful to everyone on your team.

Edited to add 4: There's no natural connection between my being dead and y'all preparing to start claiming. This is more a "I know people get too invested in not saying things so remember this if I'm not here to aggressively remind you"  

Edited March 14, 2024 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Ahoy me pirate mateys, please be advised that I'm grabbing Zephyr tonight!

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Flipping is just another word for 'exeing', but it can be method-agnostic, i.e. shooting TKN/TBB with Crimson is also flipping TBB. All flipping means is that one way or another, you want to see the player's role and alignment show up in the write-up, so you know for sure. The discussion about pre-flipping on D1 was just that sometimes Evil players know how a player is going to flip already (since they know everyone's alignments) and so may slip up by having unwarranted confidence/knowledge of a player's flip. The other issue with regard to pre-flipping is that it's just bad Village play in general but there's a fine line between 'good Villager' and 'has the time to do it.'

This explanation is accurate, but in case you want a shorter one:

A "flip" is the official reveal of a player's alignment when they die.

When we talk about "flipping" someone, we are talking about killing them.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

What I am saying is everyone needs to buckle up and pony up because it's gonna get rough. Consider using your spores because you may not get a second chance tomorrow if Aman misshoots. It's true we can try to be lucky (wrt blocking or redirecting a kill tomorrow Night, if we end up being 3/3). I'm just reminding everyone two things:

Aye, full sail ahead and broadside the enemy!

Don't hoard consumables, death is just around the corner!

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Ahoy me pirate mateys, please be advised that I'm grabbing Zephyr tonight!

This explanation is accurate, but in case you want a shorter one:

A "flip" is the official reveal of a player's alignment when they die.

When we talk about "flipping" someone, we are talking about killing them.

Aye, full sail ahead and broadside the enemy!

Don't hoard consumables, death is just around the corner!

Who do you think I should kill tonight friendo

For now that is all o7

Edited March 14, 2024 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

This explanation is accurate, but in case you want a shorter one:

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[Amanuensis he/him]

“Brevity is the something something of something” or something like that

 For now that is all o7

Edited March 14, 2024 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

“Brevity is there something something of something” or something like that

 For now that is all o7

Brevity is the soul of wit but alas in this game we are Witless

Do not test me I will write u a dissertation

[Amanuensis he/him]

I love it when my autocorrect errors are immortalized in quotes smh (even though it’s my fault I only proofread after hitting post)

For now that is all o7

Edited March 14, 2024 by Amanuensis

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Who do you think I should kill tonight friendo

For now that is all o7

Everyone

it is my opinion that vig shots are sacred

if the heavens wanted us to vote on them they'd have give us another exe instead of a vig shot

this is a fancy way of saying idk tbh

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

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Bro you use too many words it make my head hurt

boil your soup! it's a good exercise and internal consistency check~

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Everyone

it is my opinion that vig shots are sacred

if the heavens wanted us to vote on them they'd have give us another exe instead of a vig shot

this is a fancy way of saying idk tbh

Fair. From my PoV it’s useful to see who wants who dead more than using it as a second exe, but won’t push further if you don’t feel like it

For now that’s all o7

Edited March 14, 2024 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Everyone

it is my opinion that vig shots are sacred

if the heavens wanted us to vote on them they'd have give us another exe instead of a vig shot

this is a fancy way of saying idk tbh

Some puppies want to watch the world burn

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

43 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Some puppies want to watch the world burn

and some have no clue who is doing the burning. do votes happen at night?

 

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

and some have no clue who is doing the burning. do votes happen at night?

 

No. Just actions.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay so I started the game with Crimson. Already told everyone in PMs and now have become convinced we're not all village, so I figured I might as well announce it, since I'm still debating who to shoot and value democratic input. Thoughts?

(Rn my order is on TBB, but am open to changing it)

For now that is all o7

My thoughts are that I personally would like to not die.

I think I am very solvable right now. E!TKN doesn't get involved as much I have this game. Kas has a few others I've seen, but that’s my main point of contention. 

I think you should probably be shooting into that low info/activity bunch, Hairy, JNV (well, not JNV cause of Kas), Aeter, Raven, maybe Royal.

I'm actually curious why you seem to be so ok with this @Kasimir, you've been reading me village so far as I can yell for a while now, and more strongly than I'm used to.

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

I'm actually curious why you seem to be so ok with this @Kasimir, you've been reading me village so far as I can yell for a while now, and more strongly than I'm used to.

PoE + it seems harsh to tell Aman 'kys' and also lbr if he's Village that's a bad shout, if he's Evil, he's not gonna shoot himself.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

PoE + it seems harsh to tell Aman 'kys' and also lbr if he's Village that's a bad shout, if he's Evil, he's not gonna shoot himself.

Is a Raven/2 Newbies team that improbable for missing a kill? 

Something that can help @Amanuensis decision as well, I grabbed the Midnight spore last night. I want to try to find the elim kill tonight. I currently have it on my top suspect, but I'm very open to other suggestions. I figure I can randomly select from a pool who to check. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

15 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Is a Raven/2 Newbies team that improbable for missing a kill? 

Something that can help @Amanuensis decision as well, I grabbed the Midnight spore last night. I want to try to find the elim kill tonight. I currently have it on my top suspect, but I'm very open to other suggestions. I figure I can randomly select from a pool who to check. 

Hm. Okay, maybe I will shoot Hairy or Raven then

For now that is all o7

[Kasimir he/him]

1.

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm. Okay, maybe I will shoot Hairy or Raven then

IMO no point shooting Hairy. Hairy last showed up on D1. 

Quote

If someone fails to post in the thread for two cycles, they will be thrown overboard and eliminated.

@Sart, with Hairy failing to post past D1, does Hairy die during D3 or start N3?

Ooer. Side-thought: Nasty complication for us I maybe didn't think about. Suppose for now Hairy is Village. (Worst case scenario, remember?) If so:

-Aman misshoots
-Elim kill succeeds

6/3 -> 4/3

Theoretically 4/3 is not lylo, but:

Further suppose V!Hairy dies D3:

3/3 -> lylo

V!Hairy dies N3:

4/3 -> ML takes us to 3/3 and Hairy perishing of inactivity and being keelhauled -> 2/3 V loss.

2.

32 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

Is a Raven/2 Newbies team that improbable for missing a kill? 

I will bracket this comment by noting I don't like to lean too heavily on GM meta. However:

-Sart is known to want to choose randomly (+)
-I still doubt most GMs would let that team through - it's a team that has no real support for the new players. You can argue that Araris and Szeth ran that team in QF64 but I'll note that team had you. (-)

I'm not strongly convinced the team missed a kill. I'm still leaning towards the view they deliberately killed TJ because I generally feel inactivity hunting should be last ditch, not first effort, especially in our predicament. (It has corrosive effects on Village capacity IMO.) It's absolutely possible that my reluctance to do so will be lethal for us here, but that's why I'm looking at both you and Aman. (I've considered Drake and JNV again, but am still less convinced they fit for now.)

The main things holding me back are that, as I said, it's kinda unhelpful to tell Aman frankly 'kys' (  ) though I've mentioned my suspicion of him more than once.

The other reason I dislike the Raven/2 Newbies formulation:

-Raven is too missing to do much reading into
-Newbies too passive for this

Essentially pushing them is going for a crapshoot because it doesn't feel there's much to go off. It's maybe a shocking statement coming from me, the believer in discussed exes, but the tepidity of the thread from the past two cycles is not leaving me too optimistic that we'll see an indicator we're hitting something.

We could take this as a sign that we're not pressuring the right people, but where does that leave us?

<Aet, Raven, Hairy> because Bee has faced lethal pressure and no one batted an eye, not even Bee.

Raven is barely there, Hairy has not showed up since D1. That's a Hail Sithis shot if I ever saw one.

[Sart he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Sart, with Hairy failing to post past D1, does Hairy die during D3 or start N3?

Start of Night 3.

[Amanuensis he/him]

*Resists urge to tinfoil Drake using the NK on TJ and lying about using his Crimson so he can save it for later and double tap win*

For now that is all o7

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

<Aet, Raven, Hairy> because Bee has faced lethal pressure and no one batted an eye, not even Bee.

 

Hm…. I didn’t think of it like lethal pressure honestly.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

*Resists urge to tinfoil Drake using the NK on TJ and lying about using his Crimson so he can save it for later and double tap win*

For now that is all o7

Why did you have to say that.

Triggering the paranoid part of my brain (the whole of it basically)

Edited March 15, 2024 by The Bald Brandon

[Sart he/him]

That's time.

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm. Okay, maybe I will shoot Hairy or Raven then

For now that is all o7

Please don’t shoot me lol. I least then I can verify that you did what you said you were going to do.