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Break Tank 4: Last Night, Rain Mingled With Mist


Kasimir

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45 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

How did they block you

More importantly, if you're certain they blocked you, you're certain they aren't the Forsaken. Exing e!JNV harms the village by cutting our opportunities to hit the Forsaken from two to one. I won't hound the point too hard, but Mat not searching for the Forsaken isn't a great look. 

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Exing me doesn't give any information other than that Archer was hit by pattern or e!Mat or e!JNV N0. Wizard was hit by Mat N0 and/or N1 presumably. If Hael wasn't hit and isn't evil, then neither JNV nor Wizard are the Forsaken. Forsaken Hael with e!Mat could've claimed whatever he wanted whenever and didn't have to be so cautious, but still possible. I don't think there's a mechanical reason Aeoryi can't be forsaken except the thief taker claim, which hasn't been counterclaimed w.r.t pattern degradation. I can't stay to figure this out though so I guess stick on Mat? Don't really like that. I'd like another scan other than mine on JNV but don't know if we can get that. I'll vote Hael if anyone's willing to join, since Mat presumably isn't Forsaken.

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11 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Exing me doesn't give any information other than that Archer was hit by pattern or e!Mat or e!JNV N0. Wizard was hit by Mat N0 and/or N1 presumably. If Hael wasn't hit and isn't evil, then neither JNV nor Wizard are the Forsaken. Forsaken Hael with e!Mat could've claimed whatever he wanted whenever and didn't have to be so cautious, but still possible. I don't think there's a mechanical reason Aeoryi can't be forsaken except the thief taker claim, which hasn't been counterclaimed w.r.t pattern degradation. I can't stay to figure this out though so I guess stick on Mat? Don't really like that. I'd like another scan other than mine on JNV but don't know if we can get that. I'll vote Hael if anyone's willing to join, since Mat presumably isn't Forsaken.

I mean we know you aren't df 

Like cmon

EDIT:

sorry for the tone I've been on MU too much lol

Edited by Aeoryi
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46 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

@DrakeMarshall / @Kasimir VC please?

Sure I'll do it but dawg this is a 12hr cycle BT and in general don't expect quick on-demand official tallies from GMs, you can always make your own if you're really curious!

Vote Tally:

Devotary (4) - Wizard, JNV, Archer, Aeoryi

Hael (1) - Devotary

Mat (1) - Hael

JNV (1) - Mat
No Execution (1) - Raven

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Yay! No more Ooklas!

So I had wanted to get Mat's response to what actions he did for Night 1, but seems like he doesn't intend to share, so we'll go ahead and post this anyway.


Alright, so my assumption is that there is a Forsaken with one Darkfriend ally. They cannot communicate with each other privately, so the only communication they've had as in thread where we can see it.

I think I'm willing to accept Aeoryi's claim of being victim to the bubble of evil. Doesn't mean they're not a darkfriend (though I don't think they are), but it does mean that they are not the Forsaken.

Regarding Devo:

N1 Archer as Wisdom determined Devotary was Forsaken
N1 Aeoryi as Gossip got that either Devotary was village or Forsaken (but not a darkfriend)
N1 Raven as Veteran attempted to kill Devotary, but nothing happened
N1 Wizard as Watchman received Devotary as their second name
So, with my N0 intel, either I was poisoned/drunk and one of Wizard and JNV are the Forsaken, or I was not, in which case those two are not Forsaken and Devotary is able to. So it's a matter of whether Mat really got me drunk or not N0. 

It is possible that Archer was given incorrect information C1 (bubble of evil), and Aeoryi's information doesn't give a positive ID. It's possible that Wizard was drunk N0 and so a village read of Aeoryi doesn't help support Devo being a DF or Forsaken. It's possible that the bubble of evil changed Aeoyri's role C2. But the question is how did Raven's ability fail? Only way they don't die is if they didn't use it (feels unlikely), or they were poisoned/drunk. Which means either JNV or Mat is truthful about their roles and is evil.

If JNV is an evil apothecary, then that means that I was not drunk N0, and so Wizard and JNV are not Forsaken. Which means that Mat was lying about being an innkeeper, making Mat Forsaken, with JNV blocking the kill. This is trolly on JNV's part rather than necessary.
If Mat is an evil innkeeper, I think that means I was drunk N0, and one of my targets is forsaken. evil Mat could be covering for evil Wizard, but I'm not thinking that's likely, though flagging it as a possibility to look back on later. In this world, JNV is Forsaken, while Mat trolled Raven by getting drunk. Still inclined to believe this tbh, but let's keep going.
If the bubble of evil hit village Mat instead of Archer, it wouldn't cancel the action, just give false information. My own scan would still be affected by drunkenness, so it would turn the combination of our scans into saying Wizard is Forsaken. But if the C1 bubble of evil didn't hit Archer, then we've got a contradiction with the Archer claim of Devotary as Forsaken. Only way that works is if Wizard and Archer are evil buddies, I think. But this doesn't explain why Raven's action failed. Because I don't see village Mat or JNV blocking Raven. So I don't see this as likely.

So what if Mat didn't make me drunk N0. Possibly in this scenario they are not an Innkeeper. That means JNV and Wizard are clear, and that Aeoryi and Devotary are different teams. A village read of Aeoryi, makes Devo a darkfriend or a Forsaken, and taken with Aeoryi's Gossip, puts them as a Forsaken. In a world where Aeroyi is truthful about the C2 bubble of evil but is a darkfriend, this still allows Devo to be Forsaken, but does still allow them to be village. But I'm more inclined to give the Aeoryi village read. We have to give a reason for the Raven kill failing. I don't think evil!Raven makes sense in this world - an evil veteran wouldn't ever want to show their ability, and I think would be more likely to fake claim something less verifiable. I guess it's possible there's a Devotary/Raven team up. But then that makes it more likely for there to be a village Mat who would have made me drunk N0. So I still don't see it.


Hrm. This is the mess. Outside of my own alignment the thing I'm most sure about is that Aeoryi is probably telling the truth about the C2 bubble, and so cannot be the Forsaken.

If we go on gut reads, I'm feeling off about Devo and Matt, particularly with how they're posting and voting. I can probably go into it more later, but it's under 45 min to rollover so later. So what if Devo = Forsaken, and Mat = Darkfriend Innkeeper. 

I think it works if I got hit with the bubble of evil, while evil innkeeper Mat does hit both Wizard and I as claimed. I believe the bubble of Evil would mean my results couldn't be relied on as with drunkeness. That then opens up all of the Devo actions suggesting Devo to be evil as being successful. 

So with that in mind, we'll go with Devotary instead of Mat.

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

Devo

.. @DrakeMarshall/ @Kasimir VC please?

I know Drake just ninja'd me again, but here's one with my vote change incorporated.

Vote Tally
(5) Devotary: Wizard{1}, JNV{1}, Archer{1}, Aeoryi{1}, Hael{2}
(0) Mat: Devotary{1}, Hael{1}
(1) JNV: Mat{1}
(1) Hael: Devotary
(1) No Execution: Raven{1}

(5) Devotary: Wizard, JNV, Archer, Aeoryi, Hael
(1) JNV: Mat
(1) Hael: Devotary
(1) No Execution: Raven
 

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Follow up post in case this merges
Just now, Haelbarde said:

So I had wanted to get Mat's response to what actions he did for Night 1, but seems like he doesn't intend to share, so we'll go ahead and post this anyway.

To clarify, something that contributes to me being generally suspicious of Mat is that he hasn't (that I can see) made any claim of his N1 actions, when in a all villagers sharing information to solve the puzzle, that'd be the first thing I'd expect a villager to do. Rather, he conveniently doesn't bring his role up when Raven mysteriously seems to have had their action blocked. Evil Innkeeper Mat could well be responsible. 

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