Mid-Range Game 65: Set on Infiltration

[Experience he/him]

Just under 8 hours left in the cycle. Make sure to get any votes and/or actions submitted!

[Aeoryi she/her]

9 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

@DeTess, well, it's pretty clear that is far from the case. Me and Araris are practically the only ones going after Archer, and everyone else is neutral or against us. Perhaps your point was valid initially, but can you really still say we're stalemating discussion or making an excusable vote (I know those weren't your exact words, but that seems to be the gist)? I doubt most elims would hold up under the pressure me and Araris have been under without hedging.

I would argue we will get much more information from exing Archer than we would from not. The list could be effected by all sorts of things, maybe it only updates when a Red dies. I don't actually believe that, but it's possible. I think that any information we would get c2 without exing Archer we will still get, but also we will potentially get more and more useful information as well.

I agree with this statement, flipping archer will give the village more information, regardless of Elim or not. If he is elim ... well labyrinth probably is too.

I am a little confused at what Hedging is though.

2 hours ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

Oh. Then Archer. I was voting for both of you because while I highly doubt you are both infiltrators, there are reasons why I suspect both of you, and I think at least one of you are. As such, I don’t really care which one of you ends up voted out, but I would like it to be one of you.

Do you want to elaborate on these reasons?

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I don't think it's a plausible theory. It requires the elim team being on and aware of their alignment before the game began. Not only is elims getting more time to prep than the village a rare mechanic, it's also vulnerable to a team that doesn't check their PMs earlier than they're supposed to messing it up. 

Ae and Stink aren't e-e, noted. 

The thug theory relies on 2 elims, aligning with the C1 alignment distro. So that's 3 lives, without the voting edge of having three elims. That works in an 11 player game.

Parity isn't simple to reach, because there's only two of them. If we get all mixes, we're looking at 9:2 to 7:2 to 5:2 to 4:2 to lose, which is actually better for our chances than 8:3 to 6:3 to 4:3 to lose. 

And there's no reason the village needs to have thug roles as well. In a small game, repetition of roles isn't necessary. 

oh dear, my burning desire to be the first person to correctly 'guess' the answer to the mystery made me decide to out myself and give up a pivotal secret for temporary clout

Or I'm just spitballing here, even if I know it's wrong. Take your pick 

I see where your coming from. I think the best counter argument to that is it's predictable that the C1 exe goes this way, so why would the GM put e!me in this position? If it blows up in their face, that's practically bastard GMing 

Traditionally, no. You can't vote for multiple people. Your vote is probably just on me right now, since GMs usually take the last vote listed. 

Edit: I get voting me, but why me AND Ae? I'm voting Ae, so why vote with me? 

Why call me Ae

The reasons why I think two elims is:

1. The list we were given, by supposedly a NPC third Elim, specified 2 elims, Labyrinth and Archer.

2. In order for a third party to exist, especially one with neutral or a kill action, it would basically promote the idea of 2 elims. Having neutral roles (I believe) doesn't count towards Parity?

3. Historically, the rate of elims has been 20-25%, and while 2/11 is a bit lower than 20%, if there is the aforementioned third party, or roles that don't contribute to village side when looking at the parity goal (presumably) with elims, it would make sense for less elims.

10 hours ago, DeTess said:

edit: oops, pressed enter too soon. Actual post will be edited in in a bit.

I am not against Archer getting executed. What I am against is Archer (or labyrinth) getting executed for the sole reason that their name is red in that list. The reason for that has to do with the fact that, even though D1 exe is often a miss, it cans till give us information alter in the game, especially if several people were up for the exe. You can often look back at what happened that day and if elims got involved find motives. However, if we simply dog-pile on one of the reds then the only thing we can get from it is a hint to the meaning of the list, which, we could get C2 as well if the list changes.
The reason I am saying that would be the only thing we gain is because everyone else can simply say 'wel they were red, I don't like reds' when pressed on their D1 vote, which makes me very suspicious of anyone jumping on a vote with a built-in alibi like that and no further reasons for doing so. It's perfect cover for elims, and I'd expect slightly more digging from villagers D1.

Agree with Mat that this is a very odd thing to suggest for someone currently red...
@Aeoryi, let's go with Archer's hypothesis of two elims with 1 thug for a moment. How much protection would you think the village has in that case? Protection being both extra lives and protect type roles?

I would say if the elims have a total of three lives, the village could easily have 2 or more, maybe in the form of lurchers or thugs. I'd have to read the past set stuff for normal role distros.

EDIT: Does anyone have a VC?

Edited September 24, 2023 by Aeoryi
vC ask

[The Unknown Order he/him]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I see where your coming from. I think the best counter argument to that is it's predictable that the C1 exe goes this way, so why would the GM put e!me in this position? If it blows up in their face, that's practically bastard GMing 

My guess is that there's some underlying mechanic balancing it out, perhaps your rotating alignment theory, or perhaps something else. I don't really know, but I also don't think there's any other way to find out.

9 hours ago, DeTess said:

Given that you both made those votes very early, before it became clear that your opinion wasn't shared by the thread: yes, I do think I can still make that argument. Just because time has passed sine then doesn't mean I can't still suspect that as the motive when you posted. As for holding up under pressure, I think we both know that if you backed off when challenged like this, without a good alternative to move too, it would look more suspicious, not less.

So, hypothetical scenario: C2 the list shifts and two other people are shown as red. And this happens independently of Archer getting executed or not. What kind of additional information would the archer exe give us?

Well, most importantly, it would show whether or not Archer flips red. It also very well might reveal additional mechanics that otherwise wouldn't be revealed. 

Here's my question for you. What information would we receive if we don't exe Archer, that we wouldn't receive if we did? I'm still don't understand what you're arguing for, what is your alternative? You aren't voting for anyone as far as I can tell. A no-exe isn't exactly happening, if it's even possible. So what are you trying to do?

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

Here's my question for you. What information would we receive if we don't exe Archer, that we wouldn't receive if we did? I'm still don't understand what you're arguing for, what is your alternative? You aren't voting for anyone as far as I can tell. A no-exe isn't exactly happening, if it's even possible. So what are you trying to do?

 My vote is on Araris right now.

As for information, we get a flip of someone, and we get to see arguments beyond 'well, he was red' for why people wanted to see that person executed. A couple cycles from now we can even analyse what might have happened based on any elim and village flips. In other words, the current situation, where people are looking at everyone, with a number of different suspicions being aired is pretty ideal as far as I am concerned, as it gives us things to look back on later, where a focus on just Archer and Lab just for their position on that list would not really have done so.

As for whether Archer flips red, if the list remains unchanged next cycle I am willing to take a shot at Archer or Lab, but when it is unclear yet how the list evolves I think voting purely based on the list is very counterproductive. After all, if the list changes ext. cycle then that would heavily suggest that whatever is going on with it is not tied to people's actual alignments. And I'd much rather wait a cycle to see what happens than waste an execution on someone whose only real source of suspicion was a game mechanic we don't understand at all yet.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

Just under 8 hours left in the cycle. Make sure to get any votes and/or actions submitted!

This game has actions, good to know... 

1 hour ago, Aeoryi said:

I agree with this statement, flipping archer will give the village more information, regardless of Elim or not. If he is elim ... well labyrinth probably is too.

I am a little confused at what Hedging is though.

Do you want to elaborate on these reasons?

Why call me Ae

I would say if the elims have a total of three lives, the village could easily have 2 or more, maybe in the form of lurchers or thugs. I'd have to read the past set stuff for normal role distros.

I've been using Ae because I have trouble remembering how to spell your name. If you dislike it, I can stop

The village could have extra lives, but they don't have to. Or say we compromise and give them a bodyguard who may produce kill blocking but isn't guaranteed to like a thug is. 

45 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Here's my question for you. What information would we receive if we don't exe Archer, that we wouldn't receive if we did? I'm still don't understand what you're arguing for, what is your alternative? You aren't voting for anyone as far as I can tell. A no-exe isn't exactly happening, if it's even possible. So what are you trying to do?

Getting back to fundamentals, do you believe that I'm evil? Never mind the list and the potential benefits of investigating it, what makes you passionate enough about this lead that you're voting when you normally wouldn't? Lack of other options wouldn't normally get you engaged

35 minutes ago, DeTess said:

 My vote is on Araris right now.

As for information, we get a flip of someone, and we get to see arguments beyond 'well, he was red' for why people wanted to see that person executed. A couple cycles from now we can even analyse what might have happened based on any elim and village flips. In other words, the current situation, where people are looking at everyone, with a number of different suspicions being aired is pretty ideal as far as I am concerned, as it gives us things to look back on later, where a focus on just Archer and Lab just for their position on that list would not really have done so.

As for whether Archer flips red, if the list remains unchanged next cycle I am willing to take a shot at Archer or Lab, but when it is unclear yet how the list evolves I think voting purely based on the list is very counterproductive. After all, if the list changes ext. cycle then that would heavily suggest that whatever is going on with it is not tied to people's actual alignments. And I'd much rather wait a cycle to see what happens than waste an execution on someone whose only real source of suspicion was a game mechanic we don't understand at all yet.

Mental note that DeTess and Araris, TKN aren't e-e. 

If it came to it, I vote we test the theory by killing Lab instead of me. (I can't spell Labrinth either, sue me)

[DeTess she/her]

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mental note that DeTess and Araris, TKN aren't e-e. 

Or maybe we're just really good at distancing  

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Ravenclawjedi42, can you elaborate on why you suspect Archer and Labyrinth? Does your suspicion extend beyond the list in the first post?

Also, supposing you were forced to vote for someone other than those two, where do you think you would vote (not really asking for reason here, just your gut)

[Mat he/him]

Can’t decide how much I want to e!read that DeTess post. Is probably just a joke but also kinda reads like she’s keeping options open for her potential red flip.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can’t decide how much I want to e!read that DeTess post. Is probably just a joke but also kinda reads like she’s keeping options open for her potential red flip.

I mean, as the resident Bus Master I'd say it's true that I'm really good at distancing .

[Aeoryi she/her]

40 minutes ago, Archer said:

This game has actions, good to know... 

I've been using Ae because I have trouble remembering how to spell your name. If you dislike it, I can stop

The village could have extra lives, but they don't have to. Or say we compromise and give them a bodyguard who may produce kill blocking but isn't guaranteed to like a thug is. 

Getting back to fundamentals, do you believe that I'm evil? Never mind the list and the potential benefits of investigating it, what makes you passionate enough about this lead that you're voting when you normally wouldn't? Lack of other options wouldn't normally get you engaged

Mental note that DeTess and Araris, TKN aren't e-e. 

If it came to it, I vote we test the theory by killing Lab instead of me. (I can't spell Labrinth either, sue me)

Killing Labyrinth would actually cost us basically nothing, we'd be killing off a red-named but we would not be killing off an active member. But labyrinth hasn't done anything particularly wrong yet, besides have his name in red on a list that we can't confirm the credibility of (which is what tess is trying to say, in my opinion).

Define "a bodyguard who may produce kill blocking" what does that mean? But I can definitely see the village having something since blackout games tend to be a tad bit unforgiving to village.

Do I believe you are evil? I am trying not to say "I think you're evil just because you voted for me" but to me you have been slightly aggressive this game. Maybe that's just your playstyle. But I don't exactly have a list of reads at hand to give to you. I know aggression doesn't exactly mean Elim, but red name + aggression is definitely leaning towards that.

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

 My vote is on Araris right now.

As for information, we get a flip of someone, and we get to see arguments beyond 'well, he was red' for why people wanted to see that person executed. A couple cycles from now we can even analyse what might have happened based on any elim and village flips. In other words, the current situation, where people are looking at everyone, with a number of different suspicions being aired is pretty ideal as far as I am concerned, as it gives us things to look back on later, where a focus on just Archer and Lab just for their position on that list would not really have done so.

As for whether Archer flips red, if the list remains unchanged next cycle I am willing to take a shot at Archer or Lab, but when it is unclear yet how the list evolves I think voting purely based on the list is very counterproductive. After all, if the list changes ext. cycle then that would heavily suggest that whatever is going on with it is not tied to people's actual alignments. And I'd much rather wait a cycle to see what happens than waste an execution on someone whose only real source of suspicion was a game mechanic we don't understand at all yet.

(I couldn't get rid of this quote so I'm sorry about the accidental notification)

[Ravenclawjedi42]

26 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Ravenclawjedi42, can you elaborate on why you suspect Archer and Labyrinth? Does your suspicion extend beyond the list in the first post?

Also, supposing you were forced to vote for someone other than those two, where do you think you would vote (not really asking for reason here, just your gut)

Aeoryi. She seemed suspicious in her posts about thugs and kandra, and how certain she seemed about there being vote manipulation at the beginning. All this about extra roles makes me suspect that perhaps she is one, or wants to make it seem that way. All of this leads to why I’m voting for her.

And Archer and Labyrinth definitely both have their own suspicious aura, for obvious reasons, but while this may seem hypocritical, Archers belief that it is Aeoryi makes him an object of suspicion much more than Labyrinth, to me at least.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

20 minutes ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

Aeoryi. She seemed suspicious in her posts about thugs and kandra, and how certain she seemed about there being vote manipulation at the beginning. All this about extra roles makes me suspect that perhaps she is one, or wants to make it seem that way. All of this leads to why I’m voting for her.

Do you think players with roles are more likely to be eliminators than villagers?

[Aeoryi she/her]

12 minutes ago, Ravenclawjedi42 said:

Aeoryi. She seemed suspicious in her posts about thugs and kandra, and how certain she seemed about there being vote manipulation at the beginning. All this about extra roles makes me suspect that perhaps she is one, or wants to make it seem that way. All of this leads to why I’m voting for her.

And Archer and Labyrinth definitely both have their own suspicious aura, for obvious reasons, but while this may seem hypocritical, Archers belief that it is Aeoryi makes him an object of suspicion much more than Labyrinth, to me at least.

Firstly, I was not certain of vote manipulation in the beginning- I believe I said that vote manipulation would be more powerful in a smaller group, in regards to a vote count. 

Secondly, the thing about Kandra- I asked what was normally the third party in SE set games, and I predict a third party since the game is blackout, and anything can happen. I was just reading that LG (the one by kas) called by process of elimination and that seems to have a lot of factions and parties, which raised my suspicions about this game having them as well. While this isn't flipless blackout, it is blackout, so anything could happen. As for a merlin, I simply asked what it was since I have literally never heard of one before.

Third, speculation about other roles doesn't exactly mean Elim. People have been the ones asking me questions, and I have been answering them with my honest opinion. 

The reason why archer thinks I am a thug is because he PM'd me, asking if I was a thug. I replied with "good prediction", neither confirming nor denying it. This raises some red flags for me, as archer was clearly fishing for info, and didn't offer to role claim exchange or whatnot that a normal villager would've done. This is why he jumped to the conclusion of "Aeoryi has been talking about thugs, which means she is one, which means she's elim"

Additionally, extra stuff on labyrinth: I PM'd him, asking about his thoughts on the list, and he said it was Bullcrap. 

So because of that fishing thing, I am going to vote Archer.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

This game has actions, good to know... 

I've been using Ae because I have trouble remembering how to spell your name. If you dislike it, I can stop

The village could have extra lives, but they don't have to. Or say we compromise and give them a bodyguard who may produce kill blocking but isn't guaranteed to like a thug is. 

Getting back to fundamentals, do you believe that I'm evil? Never mind the list and the potential benefits of investigating it, what makes you passionate enough about this lead that you're voting when you normally wouldn't? Lack of other options wouldn't normally get you engaged

Mental note that DeTess and Araris, TKN aren't e-e. 

If it came to it, I vote we test the theory by killing Lab instead of me. (I can't spell Labrinth either, sue me)

I really have no idea. I kind of lean towards no at this point, but that's purely because it seems unlikely. At this point, I think the only way to find out is to kill you.

I normally don't vote for a combination of two reasons: I struggle to form suspicions early game, and I don’t like being wrong. But something that will always make me vote is mechanics. This falls pretty firmly into the mechanics section, but also, no matter how this turns out, I don't really think it can be wrong. If you flip elim, great, if you flip v, then we get a lot more information. 

Actually, I would be completely fine with voting Labyrinth (Archer), I'd rather not exe an actually active player this early on.

1 hour ago, DeTess said:

 My vote is on Araris right now.

As for information, we get a flip of someone, and we get to see arguments beyond 'well, he was red' for why people wanted to see that person executed. A couple cycles from now we can even analyse what might have happened based on any elim and village flips. In other words, the current situation, where people are looking at everyone, with a number of different suspicions being aired is pretty ideal as far as I am concerned, as it gives us things to look back on later, where a focus on just Archer and Lab just for their position on that list would not really have done so.

As for whether Archer flips red, if the list remains unchanged next cycle I am willing to take a shot at Archer or Lab, but when it is unclear yet how the list evolves I think voting purely based on the list is very counterproductive. After all, if the list changes ext. cycle then that would heavily suggest that whatever is going on with it is not tied to people's actual alignments. And I'd much rather wait a cycle to see what happens than waste an execution on someone whose only real source of suspicion was a game mechanic we don't understand at all yet.

What's the argument if Araris gets exed? Well, he voted based on something I didn't agree with. How is that any more alignment indicative? It's like Mat said, me and Araris aren't any less LHF than Archer and Labyrinth. But what do we get from a flip of Araris that we don't get from a flip of Archer/Labyrinth? Archer/Labyrinth is more likely to reveal that the alignment list is incorrect than Araris, who is much more likely to create a false positive or false negative. 

This is an 11 person MR. It's kinda hard to wait a cycle. What if the list only changes when one or both of the reds die? Then the cycle is just wasted.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it seems like you think we don’t know know enough to do anything, meanwhile I don't think we know enough to do nothing. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

I really have no idea. I kind of lean towards no at this point, but that's purely because it seems unlikely. At this point, I think the only way to find out is to kill you.

I normally don't vote for a combination of two reasons: I struggle to form suspicions early game, and I don’t like being wrong. But something that will always make me vote is mechanics. This falls pretty firmly into the mechanics section, but also, no matter how this turns out, I don't really think it can be wrong. If you flip elim, great, if you flip v, then we get a lot more information. 

Actually, I would be completely fine with voting Labyrinth (Archer), I'd rather not exe an actually active player this early on.

What's the argument if Araris gets exed? Well, he voted based on something I didn't agree with. How is that any more alignment indicative? It's like Mat said, me and Araris aren't any less LHF than Archer and Labyrinth. But what do we get from a flip of Araris that we don't get from a flip of Archer/Labyrinth? Archer/Labyrinth is more likely to reveal that the alignment list is incorrect than Araris, who is much more likely to create a false positive or false negative. 

This is an 11 person MR. It's kinda hard to wait a cycle. What if the list only changes when one or both of the reds die? Then the cycle is just wasted.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it seems like you think we don’t know know enough to do anything, meanwhile I don't think we know enough to do nothing. 

Okay I seriously need a VC I don't know where the votes are at

[Ravenclawjedi42]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Do you think players with roles are more likely to be eliminators than villagers?

No. We aren’t certain that there even are roles besides eliminators and villagers, and I personally doubt that there are. My prediction is that Aeoryi, who seems to be trying to make people think she’s a thug (see her post above) is an eliminator. She does not think that she’ll be able to fool us into thinking that she is a villager, so instead she makes it seem like she is neither. That’s my theory, anyway.

 

1 minute ago, Aeoryi said:

Okay I seriously need a VC I don't know where the votes are at

I’m currently voting for you, I don’t know about anyone else.

[STINK he/him]

I propose shortening Aeoryi to Aeor which kinda sounds like Eeyore which is everyones favourite Winnie the Pooh character

Also kinda sus PM to send outta the blue C1 smh imagine doing PMs

 

[Experience he/him]

4 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Okay I seriously need a VC I don't know where the votes are at

Current Vote Count:

Aeoryi (2): Archer, Ravenclaw

Archer (2): Aeoryi, Araris

Labyrinth (1): TKN

Matrim (1): Wandering Wizard

Wandering Wizard (1): Matrim

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, STINK said:

I propose shortening Aeoryi to Aeor which kinda sounds like Eeyore which is everyones favourite Winnie the Pooh character

Also kinda sus PM to send outta the blue C1 smh imagine doing PMs

 

"Send out the blue C1"? What does that mean?

 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Aeoryi said:

"Send out the blue C1"? What does that mean?

 

I think that sentence is Stink disagreeing with your Archer read (as I also do-- tells like blatant fishing tend to not actually work as elims are aware of them, and Archer has always done that iirc)

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I think that sentence is Stink disagreeing with your Archer read (as I also do-- tells like blatant fishing tend to not actually work as elims are aware of them, and Archer has always done that iirc)

Hm. Well, If I get Exe'd (which is looking fairly popular ATM), I'll make a change to the list (if I can). Probably put more people in red.

[Mat he/him]

Okay are you just stubbornly confident or do you actually know something we don't xD

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Okay are you just stubbornly confident or do you actually know something we don't xD

I'll probably tell you in a PM

[Ravenclawjedi42]

Actually, I’m changing my vote. I think we should kill someone that is an infiltrator now, just to see the result. As such, Aeoryi Archer.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

34 minutes ago, STINK said:

I propose shortening Aeoryi to Aeor which kinda sounds like Eeyore which is everyones favourite Winnie the Pooh character

I object strongly to this. Everyone's favorite Winnie the Pooh character is obvious Pooh Bear himself.