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Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell


Elandera

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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tbh part of me had been wondering if it was you having a rough landing in C1 and figuring I might get more info going forwards. But I'm also willing to acknowledge again that I have a problem when it comes to easily making excuses for certain players ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I’m sure my alignment will become more clear as time goes on. No stress either way :D

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

If we break the tie, Alv's gonna be mad isn't he.

Eh yes and no. I'm not really fond of the low tempo - usually leads me to think no Elim is under threat or significantly under threat.

That’s my impression as well. I haven’t really seen any potential defenses, other than maybe Ash for Alpha. Otherwise a lot of people aren’t very driven to vote

Whatcha think @Devotary of Spontaneity?

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Just now, Amanuensis said:

That’s my impression as well. I haven’t really seen any potential defenses, other than maybe Ash for Alpha. Otherwise a lot of people aren’t very driven to vote

Why let it rand then? Pretty much guarantees* us a bad result, no?

*with a high degree of probability, blah blah blah

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4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why let it rand then? Pretty much guarantees* us a bad result, no?

*with a high degree of probability, blah blah blah

I was joking :P still got many hours until EoD and that’s usually when this gets more spicy

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Just now, Amanuensis said:

I was joking :P still got many hours until EoD and that’s usually when this get more spicy

Sorry, I think this recent COVID download has overwritten my joke subroutine :eyes:

Gotta install the new patch! :P 

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2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry, I think this recent COVID download has overwritten my joke subroutine :eyes:

Gotta install the new patch! :P 

Good luck. I hear that update takes literal days :wacko:

Is there anyone that’s not being voted that you think should have their name thrown in the ring?

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Just now, Amanuensis said:

Good luck. I hear that update takes literal days :wacko:

Is there anyone that’s not being voted that you think should have their name thrown in the ring?

*looks at Aman*

*raises eyebrows*

Gonna be honest mate, I really don't think you wanna hear from me right now >>

The serious answer is that I'm currently looking between <DeTess, Archer, Mat, Ash.> Recognise that's like...three of the existing trains but no matter how much I re-tread, I'm currently okay with V!TJ, V!Steel, weakly okay with V!Devo, V!Sart. (Probably fudging the credences a bit but it happens.) I still maintain it's pointless to go after Fae and Telrao right now, and I'm not keen on C1ing Alv. Part of this as well is the fact that if the vote is this diluted, it might mean the Elims feel decreased pressure, though I also sort of wonder about this? Again, my brain goes back to QF59 - not knowing who the Villagers were really voting on made me and Orlok and Striker struggle to strategise what was the appropriate move and where to find a stable CW.

In that light, I feel like if any train did have CW vibes, it'd probably be in the DeTess/Mat territory.

Overall, I guess I'm weakly okay with:

<TKN, Araris> being added but recognise I don't have strong feelings about either, it'd be me throwing rocks into the null pool. I'm sort of inclined to read TKN's early interjections in a slightly positive light because it gives me LG93 memories but I don't know if I'm overcrediting TKN at this juncture, simply put. I'd at least like to hear more about why TKN has a V read of Mat.

Where are you at?

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16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

*looks at Aman*

*raises eyebrows*

Gonna be honest mate, I really don't think you wanna hear from me right now >>

The serious answer is that I'm currently looking between <DeTess, Archer, Mat, Ash.> Recognise that's like...three of the existing trains but no matter how much I re-tread, I'm currently okay with V!TJ, V!Steel, weakly okay with V!Devo, V!Sart. (Probably fudging the credences a bit but it happens.) I still maintain it's pointless to go after Fae and Telrao right now, and I'm not keen on C1ing Alv. Part of this as well is the fact that if the vote is this diluted, it might mean the Elims feel decreased pressure, though I also sort of wonder about this? Again, my brain goes back to QF59 - not knowing who the Villagers were really voting on made me and Orlok and Striker struggle to strategise what was the appropriate move and where to find a stable CW.

In that light, I feel like if any train did have CW vibes, it'd probably be in the DeTess/Mat territory.

Overall, I guess I'm weakly okay with:

<TKN, Araris> being added but recognise I don't have strong feelings about either, it'd be me throwing rocks into the null pool. I'm sort of inclined to read TKN's early interjections in a slightly positive light because it gives me LG93 memories but I don't know if I'm overcrediting TKN at this juncture, simply put. I'd at least like to hear more about why TKN has a V read of Mat.

Where are you at?

Of course I want to hear from you :P saves me the trouble of thinking for myself ^.^

Agree that DeTess being the latest contender and spearheaded by one of the other candidates looks the most CW-like. This would suggest e!Mat and/or e!Sart (probably with e!Archer or e!Alpha, given unlikelihood to vote alongside teammates), either of which I don’t feel particularly positive about.

For that reason, I wouldn’t mind a couple Sart votes to compete alongside them, but if I had to solidify on any of the current votees, it would be Mat.

I mentioned a potential Ash-Aloha connection earlier, and saw you thought he might be in his Dingo meta, so resolving his slot before Aloha’s is an option. That feels more like a shrug / null read vote for me tho

Everyone else is just in a colorless soup atm

ED1T:

Oh yeah. TKN. I originally thought he might be paired with Aloha too but then he posted something that made me think otherwise. I forget what that was, but he’s always a Sleeper Agent to me. I never feel confident in my read of him, and then e!him just goes ham in the background

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9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Of course I want to hear from you :P saves me the trouble of thinking for myself ^.^

Aman

:eyes:

Quote

I'm standing over the body of a brother. I'm weeping. Is that his blood or mine? What have we done? 

—Collected on Vevanev 1173, 107 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was an out-of-work Veden sailor.
 
9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I mentioned a potential Ash-Aloha connection earlier, and saw you thought he might be in his Dingo meta, so resolving his slot before Aloha’s is an option. That feels more like a shrug / null read vote for me at tho

I don't feel that particularly strongly. I admit I partly said it to see if anyone might say anything or be helpful in that regard - Ash has had passive Village games before too, e.g. LG93, so I don't know whether to trust the Dingo vibes or accept I tend to associate passivity from him with Dingo. I'd upfront agree I have Ash as a null, though despite reads, my C1s tend to boil down to those I won't vote (any flavour of Village + pragmatics) and those I will (null or Evil, preferably Evil.)

Ash-Aloha how so? Brain kinda dead and am poring over Mat's past games atm, apologies.

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

This would suggest e!Mat and/or e!Sart (probably with e!Archer or e!Alpha, given unlikelihood to vote alongside teammates), either of which I don’t feel particularly positive about.

Why so?

Edited to add:

@Matrim's Dice - Current Aman read?

Edited by Kasimir
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8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Why do you think this is an important distinction?

Because truth to be told, I don't disagree with the fact I think they're different, I'm just struggling to understand your mindset/train of thought.

I'll clarify. Aman's wordings felt like he didn't really care about who benefitted more from VitC, and well it felt like he didn't care about the entire VitC discussion. Just said "whoever uses it better, it's more helpful to them" and wanted to move on from it. There was some sort of village nonchalance to it. 
Whereas deTess took a roundabout route to basically conclude "it's helpful to both", looked like wanting to appear helpful. 

And I see some long posts are there for me to catch up. 

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17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh yeah. TKN. I originally thought he might be paired with Aloha too but then he posted something that made me think otherwise. I forget what that was, but he’s always a Sleeper Agent to me. I never feel confident in my read of him, and then e!him just goes ham in the background

Yeah, I'm not confident of my TKN read but hope/presume we'll get there over time. I've said this multiple times in games and TKN gave it a seal of approval in LG93 dead doc so I'm just gonna say this again in case I get VitC wagoned or NKed or whatever:

TKN's usually somewhat helpful by C3. If by C3, y'all don't see anything much out of TKN, start looking for spikes. Or whatever the correct Threnodite term is. Hidden image.png?

10 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'll clarify. Aman's wordings felt like he didn't really care about who benefitted more from VitC, and well it felt like he didn't care about the entire VitC discussion. Just said "whoever uses it better, it's more helpful to them" and wanted to move on from it. There was some sort of village nonchalance to it. 
Whereas deTess took a roundabout route to basically conclude "it's helpful to both", looked like wanting to appear helpful. 

This works for me - I definitely felt there was some performativity to DeTess echoing it, though I'm still also of the view that position in general is a tad vacuous.

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25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Aman

:eyes:

I don't feel that particularly strongly. I admit I partly said it to see if anyone might say anything or be helpful in that regard - Ash has had passive Village games before too, e.g. LG93, so I don't know whether to trust the Dingo vibes or accept I tend to associate passivity from him with Dingo. I'd upfront agree I have Ash as a null, though despite reads, my C1s tend to boil down to those I won't vote (any flavour of Village + pragmatics) and those I will (null or Evil, preferably Evil.)

Ash-Aloha how so? Brain kinda dead and am poring over Mat's past games atm, apologies.

Why so?

There was a post or two were Ash suggested an explanation for Aloha’s behavior from receiving a few votes, using their own experience in the matter. I think I’ve recently sussed someone for this same thing in a recent game and they turned out to just be sympathetic Villager. Still worth noting.

Possible I didn’t word that last bit well enough, so I’ll stop being lazy and rub some braincells together :P

If we follow the hypothesis that v!DeTess is a counter train to save either e!Mat, e!Archer, or e!Aloha, we need to look at the voters. In this case, that’s e!Mat and/or e!Sart. I believe it’s unlikely for two elims to form a train together, so at least in the case of e!Sart, he’s probably looking for an alternative to e!Archer or e!Aloha.

Does that make more sense? XD

ED1T:

Quote

This works for me - I definitely felt there was some performativity to DeTess echoing it, though I'm still also of the view that position in general is a tad vacuous.

I will say TJ pretty much nailed it. The VitC discussion wasn’t really compelling to me. I feel it’s too nuanced of a mechanic to make any meaningful predictions about. Every case is going to need to be scrutinized and its through what comes after that we can really determine the original question’s answer, imo.

@Kasimir had trouble quoting. Mobile problems :(

 

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14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

There was a post or two were Ash suggested an explanation for Aloha’s behavior from receiving a few votes, using their own experience in the matter. I think I’ve recently sussed someone for this same thing in a recent game and they turned out to just be sympathetic Villager. Still worth noting.

Fair.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Possible I didn’t word that last bit well enough, so I’ll stop being lazy and rub some braincells together :P

I'll take full responsibility for the fact I'm sort of out of it and blanking out at the moment. Just trying to stick around and work on this one Turn at a time while I still can ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If we follow the hypothesis that v!DeTess is a counter train to save either E!Mat, E!Archer, or E!Aloha, we need to look at the voters. In this case, that’s e!Mat and/or e!Sart. I believe it’s unlikely for two elims to form a train together, so at least in the case of e!Sart, he’s probably looking for an alternative to e!Archer or E!Aloha.

Ah, raw vote analysis, got it. Sorry, I think I was conflating that with my overall image.png lean on Sart, hence I was a bit ? about why E!Sart suddenly showed up.

This would make sense - does require V!DeTess, which I'm on and off about. I think the fence sitting charge is fair, and have agreed with TJ about it though taking a different direction, but also think DeTess seems to be showing a more Village mindset in challenging Archer on distro.

Depending on Elan's response to my question, think it's worth keeping eyes out for a VitC hammer from those who haven't voted.

Considering if it's worth crediting Araris for pointing that out, or if I'm reading too much into what he said:

16 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

As for the Voice discussion, I think the ability is mostly useful for elims, but has a limited use case even for them. Consequently, I think that everyone should publicly vote, because secret votes are definitely more of a factor than the fact that voting is useful for solving the game.

Edited to add:

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I will say TJ pretty much nailed it. The VitC discussion wasn’t really compelling to me. I feel it’s too nuanced of a mechanic to make any meaningful predictions about. Every case is going to need to be scrutinized and its through what comes after that we can really determine the original question’s answer, imo.

Don't disagree it's a fair take, yeah. I was more interested in player mindsets/thoughts than necessarily predicting how the mechanic would play nout, for sure.

Edited by Kasimir
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16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh and you broke the beautiful four way tie >:( Aman

I did, and surely I shall go to Hell for it.

Oh wait.

We're all already here :( 

Edited to add:

<Fae, Telrao, Devo, Ash, TKN, Alv, JNV, Steel>

Edited to add 2:

K sorry guys but this does have to be pointed out. Agreed about Fae and Telrao not being able to and Telrao at least getting the potential inactivity clear but disregarding my personal reads, this is a pool of seven players (eight plus Telrao) who can send in an anon vote and have a 1/5 chance of messing with the end results or CWing in a clean way. I don't really believe that the pool of seven is pure.

If I'm right about how a non-voter displays with VitC, that's really hard to backtrace in an seven-pool - very big PoE.

Edited to add 3:

@AmanuensisRealistically yes and no I guess (man I say that a lot sorry.) Part of me is reluctant to believe we didn't even find one Elim in all the trains, though I also think that's plausible based off low urgency. Marrying the thoughts gives us something like "probably at most one Elim endangered, barring LG93 weirdness, with plentiful CWs and a VitC in reserve to keep things relatively unthreatened."

So yeah I...

Damnit. Ok sorry I was going somewhere with this and I legit blanked and don't remember, I'm sorry. I'll add it in another post or something when I do :/

Edited by Kasimir
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52 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice - Current Aman read?

Could lean either direction. I liked his VitC comments compared to DeTess' (sheeping TJ here but I thought of it on my own) but my omgusness is flaring up in the same way it has been in regards to Archer; I don't think his me vote is very good. Like, yes, biased, but I don't see how I'm outside either of my metas right now? I get how elim reads on me exist I suppose but I'm just surprised they're so many and stronger than elim reads on anyone else. Aman always has ulterior voting motives though so /shrug

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3 minutes ago, Sart said:

WiM definition please. Discussion of Aman seems to be centered on that term, but I don't know its meaning.

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Want it More. Basically a term for motivation to win.

This, sorry. Basically I feel V!Aman tends to be more engaged or interested, and I wasn't getting that off him earlier, and it showed up again (where else) in my read of MR63. He's definitely more into this now, and I sort of feel bad because I feel his writing pains over Redshift (having also lamented to him OOG in writer solidarity) but IG, I do consider Aman lacking WiM to lean more into Elim Aman.

I guess the way I'd spell it out is that V!Aman is just more viscerally engaged: tricky plays, solving, interest. He doesn't have to do it intensely, but it's there, and I'm not sure I really felt significant presence from him in the early game.

My counterpoint, as I mentioned, is that E!Aman sort of worked out this was a big problem in early MR57 and tends to compensate for that by sitting in the thread like Smaug and working the thread heavily in real time. I did see him sort of mentally checking out when Evil in MR62 (the Creston game, when he got converted), but that was more in doc than in thread. Still, I do feel some concern when I see that attitude.

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Could lean either direction. I liked his VitC comments compared to DeTess' (sheeping TJ here but I thought of it on my own) but my omgusness is flaring up in the same way it has been in regards to Archer; I don't think his me vote is very good. Like, yes, biased, but I don't see how I'm outside either of my metas right now? I get how elim reads on me exist I suppose but I'm just surprised they're so many and stronger than elim reads on anyone else. Aman always has ulterior voting motives though so /shrug

Hmm, I see...

Hey Writer if you're bored and you don't have anything better to do, consider hooking me up with Aman :eyes:

I have Digimon memes to send him! :eyes:

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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I've laid out my reasons in the Steel References of my previous post why I think Steel is image.png. I could be wrong but I am aware of a second V!Steel tell I'm keeping my eyes open for. I'll note that Fifth validated my V!Steel dgaf read previously, so I do feel moderately confident.

I remember I was evil with a very dgaf e!Steel though I can't, for the life in me, remember anything else about the game. Including the game number or my other teammate. Mat was the GM I think and I had vote manip and did not use it when votes were close to fake the village. That's all I remember from the game. 

Also this is purely gut, but I think Mat's posts (particularly P4, P5) have been exuding abnormal coolness. I avoided using 'fake calmness' here because I don't know if it's village Mat just calming himself down or evil Mat forcing the coolness. 

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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

And lo, the people crieth unto Elan for a VC.

And the Goddess was silent.

Then Mordekai went forth, and stretched out his hand and—

And Kas then popped another tablet and cursed the -19 plague sweeping through his household, and sighed.

"C'mon Tallybot," he said, and didn't feel remotely like redoing the code.

—and Mordekai found paper and pen and wrote it out because Warmmha helped those who helped themselves.

Someone @ me if I missed something I'm still not feeling that great.

Comments as I scrolled back for votes and redid this:

-Archer's vote is strangely elastic on Mat
- @The Known Novel What do you mean by you feel good about Mat?

Less so now, but he wasn't feeling as elim to me as he seemed to be to everyone else. He was feeling pretty normal Mat reactivity levels, but then he did one post in particular that felt like "ehhhh, I don't like that," so now I'm mostly neutral on him.

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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Could I ask where you currently are on Araris?

He’s kinda as null as null can get right now, in the same boat as Alvron. I should probably reread that one post you resurfaced because atm I can’t remember anything he posted lol.

In case you ask, TJ is a little higher and Archer a little lower in my nulls. I don’t feel like I have as firm a grip on how to read them as you do. I liked TJ’s read of my part in the VitC discussion, so for now, I’d rather keep him around :P as for Archer, his posts have been unremarkable enough that he could die and I wouldn’t bat an eye

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26 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I remember I was evil with a very dgaf e!Steel though I can't, for the life in me, remember anything else about the game. Including the game number or my other teammate. Mat was the GM I think and I had vote manip and did not use it when votes were close to fake the village. That's all I remember from the game. 

If you can give me the game refe- wait. You, Evil? C'mon that's totally checkable, how often have you been Evil >>

Mat...that means it's gotta be the Dragonet game isn't it, which means Mat's rerun of Elan's Rose Empire game - you've so barely been Evil bhai and the few times you are you scratch new scars into my heart >:( I'll take a look later if I'm not still out of it.

But I'd agree, which is why I'm checking for the second tell, but there's a very key tonal distinction between E!Steel and V!Steel IMO and I'm okay relying on it on D1. You and Stick probably saw more of it.

26 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Also this is purely gut, but I think Mat's posts (particularly P4, P5) have been exuding abnormal coolness. I avoided using 'fake calmness' here because I don't know if it's village Mat just calming himself down or evil Mat forcing the coolness. 

I think the reason why I'm confused and I'm just gonna lay it out:

And I'm sorry if I'm not really coherent I don't think I should try too much weird crem when I'm sort of out of it. I feel like a point in Mat's favour is how much more 'extra' he was in response to suspicion in MR63 IMO:

Three vote train, throws the Skittles rainbow at y'all.

Like I think there's a certain difficulty to working based off MR63 Mat. Half the deal is that he's Mobborn so no Elim TMI but also very invested in living and this is theoretically true of V!Mat as well but it's worth KIVIng because it's not quite the same psychology. So it's a mixed bag. I do like that despite constant defensive posture, he hasn't been doing this. It feels a bit positive because you'd expect that kind of sensitivity from E!Mat IMO.

The thing is, I also sort of feel this:

Quote

Why my vote's off Mat? E!Mat is almost always extremely passive when it comes to the exe (especially D1) and never tunnels or presents strong opinions. Why Archer? I'm voting from my PoE which is <Mat, Archer, Araris, JNV>

Isn't exactly wrong. (Hi Stick I know you're watching :eyes:)

I do feel the passiveness goes both ways with regards to the Skittles rainbow issue and can't decide if it's a good or bad loook. FWIW, the last time I remember seeing Mat do a Skittles rainbow was LG90 and he was Evil then.

And Mat's been pretty much scoped narrowly in terms of trains here.

I also don't know how to feel about how understanding Mat is of Aman tbh :P

54 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Could lean either direction. I liked his VitC comments compared to DeTess' (sheeping TJ here but I thought of it on my own) but my omgusness is flaring up in the same way it has been in regards to Archer; I don't think his me vote is very good. Like, yes, biased, but I don't see how I'm outside either of my metas right now? I get how elim reads on me exist I suppose but I'm just surprised they're so many and stronger than elim reads on anyone else. Aman always has ulterior voting motives though so /shrug

Which is one reason I asked for his opinion of Aman specifically. Compared to:

Quote

I said it could be a serious elim tell, and 'serious' in this context meant more like 'not a joke' or 'actual', not 'extreme'. Basically I just meant that I thought it was possible that the elims would ask to be converted in thread, but I don't really see Aman/Alpha/whoever else doing so as a good reason to elim read them.

It did make me put Aman lower among the nulls, since I think he's most likely to do that out of anyone, but I didn't want to go any lower than that.

 

and

Just feel V!Mat has a greater tendency than most to actually 'u w0t m8' Aman, so I don't know how to feel about his sudden understanding/Zen.

Also: RIP sorry Aman >>

I don't disagree about forcing defensive voting, I also just don't like bad thread tempo :P 

24 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Less so now, but he wasn't feeling as elim to me as he seemed to be to everyone else. He was feeling pretty normal Mat reactivity levels, but then he did one post in particular that felt like "ehhhh, I don't like that," so now I'm mostly neutral on him.

Which post?

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

He’s kinda as null as null can get right now, in the same boat as Alvron. I should probably reread that one post you resurfaced because atm I can’t remember anything he posted lol.

In case you ask, TJ is a little higher and Archer a little lower in my nulls. I don’t feel like I have as firm a grip on how to read them as you do. I liked TJ’s read of my part in the VitC discussion, so for now, I’d rather keep him around :P as for Archer, his posts have been unremarkable enough that he could die and I wouldn’t bat an eye

You're talking to the guy who MLed Archer in LG93 and kept defending E!TJ so I'm not really sure that's wise. But fair.

Thoughts on an Araris train?

Edited to add:

@|TJ|

FWIW, I found the game and it validates my thoughts. Still more presenteeism from E!Steel C1 than in this game, matching the LG80, LG92 pattern I found. Check these out:

Steel #1: "Warning, I'm busy."

Steel #2: Rules question

Steel #3: Mech/distro discussion, stated refusal to vote

IMO that's still a more 'presenteeist' C1 than we're seeing here - he states he's busy with classes but makes an effort to show up and dumps things in the thread that superficially appears to be content. There's none of the raw dgaf from Weasel or in this post. Agree one shouldn't overread from absence of info but I think there's also a clear pattern here. I won't overweight this last point but I also think it's significant that Fifth recognised the same tendency and agreed when we were trying to read Weasel in AG9 - he's Fifth's Wyrm, if anything.

Edited by Kasimir
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