Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

What if we…tied. Let RNG decide? 

What if when you post things like this... I wonder if you know who the last IC is and just want one more kill?

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

It was an impulsive idea  

Okay I guess I’m alright with TUN

edit:

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

What if we…tied. Let RNG decide?
 

Edit;

NO BAD IDEA

it might expose winzik

Hm. This makes me wonder whether the elims deliberately tried to make ties happen - if winzik finds themself in a tie surely they would use their vote? And reveal themself? This is a good elim strategy. It might be worth looking at past votes with this in mind. Hold on. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Ookla the Unknown I've seen you lurking. Have any input?

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

2 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

@Szeth_Pancakes with the elim kill, if two players submit a kill which happens? Earliest valid order, or latest? I've seen both happen in different games, and the answer could have a bearing on the Xino kill.

Latest.

[Stick. she/her]

Quote

I’m on mobile idk how to get rid of this quote box 
Okay, I stole notes from Hael’s vote progression posts (thanks Hael):

C1:

Hael voted Dannex, tying Kas/Danex 4/4 votes each. I don’t know whether this vote count was the accurate one but according to what Hael posted in-thread at the time, his vote tied it. 
 

C2 (content in spoiler is quoted from Hael’s post):

Spoiler

Hael votes Silver being uncomfortable at the last-minute vote movement seemingly protecting Silver from the execution, last minute Elim hammer style.
[Seconds after Fifth's vote, 4 minutes before EoC, tying Silver and Nerdy]

  Quote

(2) Xino: Kas {1}, Exotic {1}, Nerdy {1}, Fifth{2}
(0) Hael: Stick {1}, Aman {1}, Fifth {4}
(0) Bookwyrm: Kas {2}
(4) Silver: Stick {2}, Kas {3}, Wizard {1}, Aman {5}, Devo {1}, Fifth {1}< Hael {1}
(3) Aman: Wizard {1}, Mat(t) {1}, Infinite {1}, Fifth {3}, Fifth {5}
(0) Devo: Aman {2}, Aman {4}
(1) Fifth: Aman {3}, Stick {4} 
(4) Nerdy: Mat(t) {2}, Xino {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Aman {6}
(0) TUN: Stick {3}
(1) Szeth: TUN {1}

(4) Nerdy: Mat(t) {2}, Xino {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Aman {6}
(4) Silver: Kas {3}, Wizard {1}, Devo {1}, Hael {1}
(3) Aman: Wizard {1}, Infinite {1}, Fifth {3}
(2) Xino: Exotic {1}, Nerdy {1}

Again, Hael ties the votes between Nerdy and Silver.

C3 (again, content in spoiler quotes Hael’s post):

Spoiler

Hael moves to Xino from Nerdy, not wanting to execute Aman, explicitly opting to tie up Fifth and Xino, sealing Fifth's fate.

  Quote

(3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas{3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3}
(0) Mat(t): Aman {1}
(4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {1}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1}
(4) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5}, Devo {1}, Hael {2}
(1) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1}

Hael ties Xino and Fifth. He had a vote on Nerdy prior but that’s not relevant  

C4 (Hael quoted in spoiler):

Spoiler

Hael votes Xino based on following the thread early in cycle but not posting for another 14 hours, thinking the lurking sus.

  Quote

(0) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Aman {1}
(4) Xino: Kas {1}, Aman {2}, Infinite {1}, Kas {3}, Hael {1}
(5) Nerdy: Stick {1}, Xino {1}, TUN {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Mat(t) {3}
(0) TUN: Kas {2}, Mat(t) {2}

Here, he doesn’t tie the votes but brings it close to a tie. Nerdy had 5 votes and Xino 3, so he votes Xino to bring it closer to a tie.

It should also be noted that Hael never voted in the beginning of the cycles, but rather always in the second half. But perhaps that’s got to do with his timezone 
 

In conclusion. I now have reason to elim read Hael

[Amanuensis he/him]

Gah. V!Stick it is.

[Stick. she/her]

I also wonder if the Mat kill can be attributed to our NKA from last cycle - the kill analysis suggested an active player on the elim team. The Mat kill is a deviation from the regular kill patterns (e.g. why not go after Almond?) so I can see e!Hael wanting us to shift focus away from the more active players. He did almost get exe’d last cycle. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Kas let me end your suffering

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

43 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I personally can't see at least one elim outside of <TUN, Stick, Hael> rn, and I'm down to give Stick and Hael a chance.

(Watch the team be a Hael and Stick double bus)

In principle, I don't strongly object, as the guy who's been pushing TUN. That being said, I think I owe it to the dead to do my best not to screw us over (sorry QF63 Village...) I'm going to list my current thoughts and then do a massive re-read and compare. If, at the end of the final re-read, I can honestly say I feel TUN is the best vote for me to make, I will do it. Stick has also pointed out my being alive definitely isn't too coherent with TUN's kill meta, so there's that as well.

Just to square it with my conscience, I suppose.

If I need to break any vote volatility by voting TUN, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

@The Bookwyrm - You mentioned last game you and Insanity are friends. Do you have a read on her, right here, and right now?

Current State of Reads:

Village I Guess? [=Moderate Village]

Spoiler

Aman - Dangerous thing for me to say, but I've spelled out the reasons I'm committed to this. I'm a bit reassured by the fact that Aman's teams feel stable, or less experimental at this point in time. I don't think this is his preferred play if Evil.

Sort of Village? [=Light Village]

Spoiler

Bookwyrm - Just off his posts. They do read fairly genuine. There's some weirdness there that makes me feel ? I go back to the C2 read I guess, and the fact I don't know E!Bookwyrm would really have reason to resist Xino that strongly. He should technically be indifferent between Xino and Nerdy, but he's been consistently anti-Xino for a while. Or pro-Xino I guess. I see E!Bookwyrm as a convenience voter.

Village Maybe? [=Null+]

Spoiler

Hael - Prima facie, I feel like the Silver C2 vote is becoming such a mess. In any sane world, a player who puts a positive vote on an Elim should be Village read and that's been my read of Hael for a while. However. The PoE problem, his disengagement from the game, and the fact I get nothing off his posts in most cycles. The late C4-C5 ones are positive, but that strikes me as the point where Hael had begun to come under pressure anyway. /shrug He'd be lower but that still doesn't feel right. Fits the meta of the kills better I think. The fact he had to work out the voting tallies and actually made the Wiz mistake suggests he didn't have them before - why?

Stick - Her posts still read Village to me. I see the bus logic and the thought that Stick's vote does in fact straddle a convenient line, and I counter with the thought that the way she set up a Silver bus/distancing play still makes no sense to me. I'll grant someone could argue I am assuming optimal Elim play but this is such an easy hole to patch and obvious - surely this couldn't be it? I also DK if E!Stick kills V!Mat the cycle after he was starting to buy V!her - Aman would be a better kill.

Why Do My Tiers Have So Many Questions? [=Null]

Spoiler

Insanity - I don't really share the positive read of her, but based off LG91, I kind of doubt she's the Elim we're looking for. Even so, I guess I have her in enough of a null to be willing to vote if pressed.

Spy Maybe? [=Null-]

Spoiler

TUN - I've said this enough times, and that's that I don't know/think that C2 apathy is clearing in this context, especially in a cycle where we have to believe that Silver was passively or actively bussed. The fact that Silver never so much as voted seems to suggest this was a bus of choice, rather than a last ditch option. I stand by my thought that V!TUN makes his presence felt more by this point of the game, and that voting Nerdy to confirm yourself Village doesn't feel like a very Village attitude. I know the kill meta doesn't make sense but hell if I understand this game anymore.

Almond - If desperate, I feel that the fact we're so puzzled by the Elim strat and kill meta could plausibly suggest a wildcard/unknown element like Almond. But that's a very vague profile, and Almond is never Evil without a partner.

 

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Kas let me end your suffering

Thank you, appreciated. I'll be cheering you guys on from the dead doc!

@_Stick_ Tbqh if you want to test your tinfoil, this is the time to do it.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir
formatting

[Stick. she/her]

@Kasimir my tinfoil theory kinda sorta banked on E!Nerdy being your teammate lol. 

Im actually very convinced of e!Hael right now. Let us exe Hael. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

@Kasimir my tinfoil theory kinda sorta banked on E!Nerdy being your teammate lol. 

Im actually very convinced of e!Hael right now. Let us exe Hael. 

You will vote who you see fit. I am rereading right now. I do not know if I am going to die today (please?) I do not know if I am going to die tomorrow. I do not know if I am going to die at all at this rate >>

But Fifth is reading this thread and judging, and I need to be able to look him in the eye when I die in the dead doc and say "Sorry bro I did my best."

I am not committing to a karking vote before I finish the reread!

[Amanuensis he/him]

I’m okay with Hael. If e!Stick is protecting e!TUN, then GG, but idk what else.

ED1T:

What’s your take on Insanity mentioning she reads posts by her emails? @Kasimir

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

What’s your take on Insanity mentioning she reads posts by her emails? @Kasimir

Nothing in particular? It's been a long time since someone did that, I think Hael mentions he does, and I recall this causing some issue for some Elim in LG3. Not seeing it as particularly AI.

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Nothing in particular? It's been a long time since someone did that, I think Hael mentions he does, and I recall this causing some issue for some Elim in LG3. Not seeing it as particularly AI.

I kinda found the way she presented that info and how confused she was by us discussing everyone and our running in circles as genuine, perhaps regardless of the e-mail factor. I don’t know if a first time elim would react like that, no matter who their partner is.

 

((Sorry for the errors, mobile issues))

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

Hael. Essentially this is gambling on village Stick. I hope my d1 ride or die was not a mistake.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I kinda found the way she presented that and how confused she was by us discussing everyone and our running in circles. Perhaps regardless of the e-mail factor, it felt genuine to me. I don’t know if a first time elim would react like that, no matter who their partner is.

There's a reason she's in my nulls, tbh. I picked up on her confusion and felt it was a positive, but in the darkness of this game, don't feel confident in boosting her too high just on that basis. At some point, it feels like I'm overreaching to build a whole read on the few posts she does make, and I don't feel sure enough of it. I guess I feel it's a bit more plausible to me that a first time Elim in a crowded thread could react authentically about being lost. I don't think it's likely, which is why she's a null and my pre-reread tiers favour TUN and Almond first - and even Almond I acknowledge is a shot in the dark, realistically speaking, off vague kill-profile thoughts.

She's not my first candidate for a shot this cycle.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

Aaaagh this is hard.

My gut is telling me Hael.

But it's hard to be sure. TUN might be the better option.

I'm V! Reading Stick... and Null reading Aman with a slight V! lean...

Kas is being hard to peg for me. He's probably village.

And I have no idea what to do about Insanity and Almond.

[Kasimir he/him]

Surfacing for thoughts - feels like a somewhat positive point for Stick.

On the one hand, part of me wonders about a TUN/Stick team. But I feel it overall is a good look at Stick just outright admits to having V!read TUN on the basis of his meta prior to checking his playhistory, i.e. on the basis of her impression. Feels like E!Stick would've been a bit more careful negotiating that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

RIP Hael. I hope we’re right.

[Kasimir he/him]

Learned the hard way from MR56 that the problem with total rereads and wanting to only post when you're done is that you lock yourself out of the thread for quite a bit. In that spirit:

(1) Hael's on TUN and engagement:

Quote

Had been going to weigh in and say if TUN was a newish player I'd be tending to view them village, but sounds like they're not then. I'll try review their past games and reevaluate once I'm at a PC.

Quote

More seriously, I've been finding myself lacking motivation to actually keep up with SE games, and regardless of alignment struggling to make more than a couple short posts, particularly if no one's asking me any questions. The time accountability is/was an attempt to try and ensure I post a bit more.

Unsure if this is distancing or genuine news to him. The second quote makes me not want to hold the reactivity point as much against him.

(2) Silver's single post:

Has anyone actively tried to read Silver's single post after he flipped? I know Stick and I went through it pre-flip.

Quote

Hello, I'm finally here! 

Just a few thoughts after reading the thread too much times:

-dannnnex is... I have no idea, but being most concerned with the size of the IC is kind of a red flag for me. Well, an orange flag at least. But then there's the meta argument, which is not my favourite kind of argument as players can change their playstyles, but here it doesn't really fits with what we had of him so far, so... null for now but if I completely disregard Kas' analysis he's an elim lean for me

-Stick's defense of dannnnex is rather blunt, really strong for an early C1. But it could be genuine as well, I don’t know. In fact it almost seems to strong for an e/e interaction. So slight elim lean there but like really slight

- The Winzik claims... did anyone take that seriously ? For me they’re clearly NAI jokes (or maybe attempts at making noise and confuse the elims, as Kas said). Which is not that good looking for Aman and TUN

 

  On 12/18/2022 at 2:58 PM, Kasimir said:

p1 C1:

Bad: [Danex]

IDK/DGAF: [Stick, Hael, TUN]

No: [Aman, Fifth, Almond]

Edited to add: TUN should really be italicised.

Just to be sure: am I completely misunderstanding this post, or is Kas clearing people (Aman Fifth Almond) who hadn't posted yet? 

 

That's all for now and will likely be all for today. I'd have liked to wait even a bit more a bit to fully make up my mind on people I mentioned above, but since it's midnight for me I'm signing off now and I'll leave an hesitant vote on dannnex because I think as far as I can trust a D1 read (ie not much) he's still the most suspicious of the ones here

Btw thanks JNV for the quokkas 

Silver's vote on Danex is purely on the basis of his being concerned with the size of the IC. He mentions my argument on Danex's meta and then completely discards it. Let's look at who else Silver talks about: Stick, me, Aman, TUN.

IDK if Silver is the kind of guy to get in some distancing: the fact he has a slight Elim lean on Stick is interesting.

IDK why Aman is even in the picture. Discarding that.

He has inconsistency about me: he references me a bunch of times but also tries to sus me.

What interests me more though is the bit I've highlighted in orange. If you think that Danex's interest in the size of the IC is Elim indicative, why are you silent on TUN's opening post which explicitly invited IC size discussion, as Stick pointed out? Shouldn't you be even mildly concerned about it?

Edited to add:

Apologies, post reference here:

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

@Ookla the Unknown I've seen you lurking. Have any input?

My guess for an elim team is Hael/Almond(/Insanity)

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m okay with Hael. If e!Stick is protecting e!TUN, then GG, but idk what else.

ED1T:

What’s your take on Insanity mentioning she reads posts by her emails? @Kasimir

This is frighteningly reminiscent of when Stick defended Turtle by offering up Archer instead, and if it was someone else I'd be worried. But it's me and I know I'm village. 

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I’m on mobile idk how to get rid of this quote box 
Okay, I stole notes from Hael’s vote progression posts (thanks Hael):

C1:

Hael voted Dannex, tying Kas/Danex 4/4 votes each. I don’t know whether this vote count was the accurate one but according to what Hael posted in-thread at the time, his vote tied it. 
 

C2 (content in spoiler is quoted from Hael’s post):

  Reveal hidden contents

Hael votes Silver being uncomfortable at the last-minute vote movement seemingly protecting Silver from the execution, last minute Elim hammer style.
[Seconds after Fifth's vote, 4 minutes before EoC, tying Silver and Nerdy]

  Quote

(2) Xino: Kas {1}, Exotic {1}, Nerdy {1}, Fifth{2}
(0) Hael: Stick {1}, Aman {1}, Fifth {4}
(0) Bookwyrm: Kas {2}
(4) Silver: Stick {2}, Kas {3}, Wizard {1}, Aman {5}, Devo {1}, Fifth {1}< Hael {1}
(3) Aman: Wizard {1}, Mat(t) {1}, Infinite {1}, Fifth {3}, Fifth {5}
(0) Devo: Aman {2}, Aman {4}
(1) Fifth: Aman {3}, Stick {4} 
(4) Nerdy: Mat(t) {2}, Xino {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Aman {6}
(0) TUN: Stick {3}
(1) Szeth: TUN {1}

(4) Nerdy: Mat(t) {2}, Xino {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Aman {6}
(4) Silver: Kas {3}, Wizard {1}, Devo {1}, Hael {1}
(3) Aman: Wizard {1}, Infinite {1}, Fifth {3}
(2) Xino: Exotic {1}, Nerdy {1}

Again, Hael ties the votes between Nerdy and Silver.

C3 (again, content in spoiler quotes Hael’s post):

  Reveal hidden contents

Hael moves to Xino from Nerdy, not wanting to execute Aman, explicitly opting to tie up Fifth and Xino, sealing Fifth's fate.

  Quote

(3) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Fifth {1}, Aman {2}, Kas{3}, Exotic {1}, Stick {1}, Aman {3}
(0) Mat(t): Aman {1}
(4) Fifth: Kas {1}, TUN {1}, Stick {1}, Exotic {2}, Bookwyrm {1}
(4) Xino: Kas {2}, Nerdy {1}, Kas {5}, Devo {1}, Hael {2}
(1) Nerdy: Kas {4}, Hael {1}

Hael ties Xino and Fifth. He had a vote on Nerdy prior but that’s not relevant  

C4 (Hael quoted in spoiler):

  Reveal hidden contents

Hael votes Xino based on following the thread early in cycle but not posting for another 14 hours, thinking the lurking sus.

  Quote

(0) Aman: Mat(t) {1}, Aman {1}
(4) Xino: Kas {1}, Aman {2}, Infinite {1}, Kas {3}, Hael {1}
(5) Nerdy: Stick {1}, Xino {1}, TUN {1}, Bookwyrm {1}, Mat(t) {3}
(0) TUN: Kas {2}, Mat(t) {2}

Here, he doesn’t tie the votes but brings it close to a tie. Nerdy had 5 votes and Xino 3, so he votes Xino to bring it closer to a tie.

It should also be noted that Hael never voted in the beginning of the cycles, but rather always in the second half. But perhaps that’s got to do with his timezone 
 

In conclusion. I now have reason to elim read Hael

I was already going to vote Hael, and this just makes me more confident. 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

I was already going to vote Hael, and this just makes me more confident. 

But why does it make you more confident when every vote sans Silver is literally a tie between two Villagers? E!Hael should arguably be indifferent. The one case I see it mattering is tying Silver and Nerdy, and there we have the counterintuitive result of Hael re-introducing Silver into the voting pool instead. If tying Nerdy and Silver is in and of itself a sus action, isn't that what Stick did as well?

(I am aware I am going in circles, but I did not like this argument, and forgot to reply to it when I got distracted.)

@_Stick_

And Stick, if you see this: why unvote Danex in response to Silver? I remember you've mentioned it, but there's a lot of thread left to read through, RIP.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But why does it make you more confident when every vote sans Silver is literally a tie between two Villagers? E!Hael should arguably be indifferent. The one case I see it mattering is tying Silver and Nerdy, and there we have the counterintuitive result of Hael re-introducing Silver into the voting pool instead. If tying Nerdy and Silver is in and of itself a sus action, isn't that what Stick did as well?

Stick’s theory, which I agree with, poses that the elims would try to create ties in the hopes of luring at Winzik. Why would an elim do it other than between villagers?

[Stick. she/her]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But why does it make you more confident when every vote sans Silver is literally a tie between two Villagers? E!Hael should arguably be indifferent. The one case I see it mattering is tying Silver and Nerdy, and there we have the counterintuitive result of Hael re-introducing Silver into the voting pool instead. If tying Nerdy and Silver is in and of itself a sus action, isn't that what Stick did as well?

(I am aware I am going in circles, but I did not like this argument, and forgot to reply to it when I got distracted.)

@_Stick_

And Stick, if you see this: why unvote Danex in response to Silver? I remember you've mentioned it, but there's a lot of thread left to read through, RIP.

My argument is that tying villagers is a good elim strategy because if either of said villagers is winzik, they’ll probably reveal themself by utilising their role to save themself. 

I unvoted Dannex because bc Silvereye’s vote seemed too opportunistic. I may have had other reasons as well that I don’t recall 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I unvoted Dannex because bc Silvereye’s vote seemed too opportunistic. I may have had other reasons as well that I don’t recall 

Why not vote Silver for opportunism at that juncture?

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

My argument is that tying villagers is a good elim strategy because if either of said villagers is winzik, they’ll probably reveal themself by utilising their role to save themself. 

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

Stick’s theory, which I agree with, poses that the elims would try to create ties in the hopes of luring at Winzik. Why would an elim do it other than between villagers?

Why does doing so reveal themselves?

Edited to add:

Quote

Danex (3): Stick, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silver
Kas (3): Danex, Nerdy, Kas
Mat (1): Fifth
Wiz (1): Aman

Potentially good looks for <Stick, Bookwyrm.> Doubt that the Elims want to consciously stack on the Danex train.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir