Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Stick. she/her]

Diversifying options TUN he has been pretty consistently online and posted twice this cycle without having expressed any views on anyone so…

Probably turning in for the night now but this time I’ll be back before the cycle ends 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Diversifying options TUN he has been pretty consistently online and posted twice this cycle without having expressed any views on anyone so…

Probably turning in for the night now but this time I’ll be back before the cycle ends 

Views:

Stick bad. They vote me.

Kas prob good. They only kinda wan vote me.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

...I'm E! Reading Nerdy.

First, I don't like this:

It just kind of rubs me the wrong way. Doesn't make much sense.

Second, their Xino vote this cycle seems like an attempt to deflect attention; other people were voting Xino, and so Nerdy did the same. Pretty much the exact same action as last cycle; voting based on others, and an attempt to fade into the vote count without much interaction.

[Kasimir he/him]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

What're your Devo thoughts so far? Has anything pinged you one way or the other?

Light V, hence my italicised no.

Not very strong but based on my sense of her Village play v. Elim play. It's just my sense of how freely or how constrained she is in her interactions with/engagement with the thread. In general, I do feel V!Devo just says whatever and sticks in to anything she finds worth saying. She doesn't otherwise. I'd never say no to more data, and she actively tried to hide an Elim tell in MR56, so there's that playstyle fluidity. But I think it's tracked for E!her since MR59 so I'm not insanely confident about this, but willing to roll with it for now.

I liked Stick's point that it wasn't distancing, at least, or that E!Devo should've had a better grasp of who was voting on whom, i.e. that Fifth was not in fact pushing or voting on Danex. I do feel that Evil Devo is more careful about her thread engagement, and this just seems to be two points on which Devo was out of it: both in terms of mistaking Stick's count (she tried to correct it as I believe Stick missed Nerdy, and introduced more error), and then just had this, which is a weird construction of thread events as it isn't right at all:

18 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So we have e!Dannex, e!Fifth trying to push him, or they're both village. And now three people in a row, four counting Fifth willing to vote Dannex/save Kas. Can't all be evil certainly. Looking okay for v!Dannex though. Won't be able to see what happens so I'll vote for Fifth, hits either teamed with Kas or ensuring Dannex's death.

@Devotary of Spontaneity - Still curious why you voted Fifth, btw. Last part is a bit confusing to me.

Not sure why the options are E/E or V/V for Danex and Fifth.

Fifth wasn't trying to vote or push Danex. Stick's point was it's not distancing, which I would agree with, but I also think that's just a very weird way for E!Devo to try to gerrymander a vote on Fifth.

I guess the other point is that V!her has been more proactive in her threadroaming in the past, e.g. QF62, but I'm aware she's been through a rough period in terms of Village play lately (cf. LG90, being replaced by Archer as a Village Lurcher) so IDK how strongly to hold that against her.

That being said, I felt she was more constructively proactive in my recent MR, e.g.:

So IDK. This is why I italicised her - I don't feel a general playstyle feel read is as strong, and there's still a departure from V!her in MR61, which was more obviously V!Devo, so there's room to revise.

Some of this comes down I admit to my uncertainty about what to do with the semi-actives: I'm fine with giving newbies a reprieve, but worry if that level of activity is what they're going to stick to, then we risk giving up lynch control prior to when we really end up doing so. I'm not a fan of giving them a free secondary kill. At the same time, activity doesn't necessarily dictate where the Elims are (no drek) so ???

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis - Like, it only just crashed down on me how utterly kayana I find that post?

Translated:

"Fifth and Dannex are V/V or E/E. Fifth maybe wants to kill Danex/save Kas, with four people wanting to do that, they can't all be Evil. Also Danex looks maybe V. So I'll vote Fifth because he's either Evil with Kas or killing V!Danex."

Like...sis you just sayd you thought Sannex and Fifth are V/V or E/E? And you immediately pivot to saying it's E!Fifth/E!Kas or potentially E!Fifth trying to kill V!Danex? Like...how does that follow? I know how much Devo thinks through her moves in a doc, and I'd argue she's careful about her votes and thread posts. It's hard for me to see how E!Devo is ok with that kind of post, even trying to gerrymander a vote (as Stick points out, it's not a good distancing vote because it's got bad set-up, so in this world, why does E!Devo vote Fifth anyway?)

Edited December 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

My bad @Devotary of Spontaneity for voting without pinging you. I forgor.

Not exactly suspecting you here, just not not-suspecting you? What're your thoughts on the JNV kill? And do you have any suspects?

[Amanuensis he/him]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Amanuensis - Like, it only just crashed down on me how utterly kayana I find that post?

Translated:

"Fifth and Dannex are V/V or E/E. Fifth maybe wants to kill Danex/save Kas, with four people wanting to do that, they can't all be Evil. Also Danex looks maybe V. So I'll vote Fifth because he's either Evil with Kas or killing V!Danex."

Like...sis you just sayd you thought Sannex and Fifth are V/V or E/E? And you immediately pivot to saying it's E!Fifth/E!Kas or potentially E!Fifth trying to kill V!Danex? Like...how does that follow? I know how much Devo thinks through her moves in a doc, and I'd argue she's careful about her votes and thread posts. It's hard for me to see how E!Devo is ok with that kind of post, even trying to gerrymander a vote (as Stick points out, it's not a good distancing vote because it's got bad set-up, so in this world, why does E!Devo vote Fifth anyway?)

Yeah, I'm equally confused. Which is kinda why I want to prod Devo more. Is there more to her e!Fifth read?

ED1T:

RIP accidental double post. I forgor I posted and refreshed the previous page to see Kas' edit

Edited December 19, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, but it's not equal to me. Hael didn't care about Danex. I wanted to die. Aman E!read Danex. You're the only one of the four of them who actively did not want the main train or the CW so it felt like a very odd sort of position to me. Fair enough though about the Sunday, I guess I'm at the same place I am with regard to Stick - I'm fine flagging it for now, don't really know if I want to go ham on it, but if I were to E!read you, I think that's one place the hinge would be.

Another thing about the not starting a countertrain point-- I actively didn't really want a Wiz countertrain either, and that was the agreed upon other option that no one went for. I would have preferred Wiz over Dannex or you though so I guess I don't really have an answer for why I didn't start that train. It's that indecisiveness I suppose.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You didn't, but you posted that you wanted to, so I do take that as something that makes me question how committed you really were to V!Danex and if it was post-hoc.

I didn't post that I wanted to, I posted that I was considering it, but it was the kind of consideration where my brain was arguing with itself. I did v!read Dannex, but I was like the only one who did and Aman had made that point that seemed good at the time, so I was wavering.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I guess the short answer is I have to believe he is findable and that I am capable of revising my reads correctly in a timely manner, or I wouldn't be able to play this game for second-guessing myself.

I think this is why I unvoted him, yeah. Like if e!Aman I'm definitely just shooting myself in the foot for not pushing him now but I'd also rather have v!him around.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Actually, I was looking at your statement that we should look at the side-trains, made during D1 EoD, as you tend to not want to do side-train analysis, so that was something I found odd. Fair enough. But if that's the case, how does it make you feel that your main two candidates for the exe that you would vote are both on the main trains?

It makes me want to look at my nulls who voted a side train a bit closer. That'd be... just Fifth, I think? Devo kind of since I agree with your 'maybe village question mark' read of her. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

So this question is me trying to understand what's going on in your head: how do you both refer to Dannex as your strongest Village read, and not actually want to intervene in the lynch.

I feel like I've already answered this already, in the paragraph you quoted while saying this  

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Please rest and take care of yourself >>

Do I take it it's parasitic on E!Bookwyrm?

I am and I just lost this post and my energy is starting to crash down.

Yes it is, because I feel that there is more credence for E!Aman if Bookwyrm flips E, but I'm not quite sure about E!Bookwyrm anymore.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Fair, but this was also a more basic point: I feel like it takes a base level of comfort to slide into the thread and just go "wow, Village FUD" instead of blending in the way E!you usually does, just pokevote someone and vanish. I do feel E!you overstates sometimes when trying to blend. It's where I am right now anyway, where it comes to you.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Tall said:

Yeah, you've got my style pinned down pretty well. xD

I'll need to change it when RNG gives me the chance to.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Is this a good time to admit I have a blackout flipless game meant to be run in my LG slot.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Tall said:

No, yes, maybe, all the above???

I'm going to grab a nap, get some homework done, and another reread before I commit to voting.

Or well I actually might.

At least have my highest three E!reads which yes, are kinda sheeping Kas a bit lot. But it's the conclusions that I came to by myself and Kas is supporting them so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Xino, Nerdy, Silver.

Xino because the inactivity problem a bit and then he just jumped to voting Kas. Don't really know if this would be advised in doc or he was just skimming and went with the mood.

Nerdy, their votes are too opportunistic and strange. They vote Kas because Kas seemed like someone other people would go up against??? Is Nerdy just evil and didn't quite understand the rules? I...I can't quite tell if it's new playerness or evilness

Silver...I can't quite remember, I think it had to do with their vote being stable? Or no, wait it was that they were pinged and asked a question but just lurked and didn't post, I think.

Silver

@InfiniteInsanity @ExoticAlmond @Ookla Carried by the Wind 

@Ookla the Nerdy

Can you each tell us your highest E read (Evil read, who you think is the spy and trying to murder the inner circle) and your highest V read (who you think is the least likely to be evil or a spy.)

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Still curious why you voted Fifth, btw. Last part is a bit confusing to me.

Pushing was the wrong word for it. Fifth notes no traction on Dannex counterwagons -> elims aren't desperate to save him = more likely village. When votes start piling up on you, he's also opposed to that which fits if he's fine with v!Dannex dying or wants to save e!you. I knew I wouldn't be around for rollover to see if Mat or anyone else would be a viable counterwagon to you and Dannex.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

What're your thoughts on the JNV kill? And do you have any suspects?

It could have been their speaking patterns in the doc, or rereading the rules to catch how Winzik's vote manipulation worked and speculating on inner circle numbers.

For suspects I'm mostly looking in the pool of those who vocally disapproved of the votes on Kas (even though I wouldn't say he's evil), especially if they then voted for Dannex, so Fifth but less so than last cycle, Mat, you, Hael (#1 of those). Maybe also e on Wizard but that feels wrong since that's just the Sith team from the last MR.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It could have been their speaking patterns in the doc, or rereading the rules to catch how Winzik's vote manipulation worked and speculating on inner circle numbers.

More specifically, who do you think the perp was?

My logic is Silver, Bookwyrm, Nerdy, Infinite, and Almond are all very unlikely to have noticed and decided on that kill. They could all be elim but there's at least 1 elim outside this grouping.

That leaves Wizard, TUN, Kasimir, Stick, Xino, you, Hael, Mat, Fifth, and me as potential JNV-catchers.

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

so Fifth but less so than last cycle

Why Fifth less so this cycle?

Edited December 19, 2022 by Amanuensis

[NerdyAarakocra They/Them]

My highest E! read is Xino, maybe Kas but probably Xino. I'm not sure about V! but I think that it could be Devo, maybe?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Nerdy said:

My highest E! read is Xino, maybe Kas but probably Xino. I'm not sure about V! but I think that it could be Devo, maybe?

Can you explain why you e!read xino, specifically?

[NerdyAarakocra They/Them]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can you explain why you e!read xino, specifically?

Honestly, I was just kinda suspicious of his behavior in C1. This is my second game, and the first was a BT so I have no idea what I'm doing.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Can you explain why you e!read xino, specifically?

I'm more intrigued by the e!Kas read.

ED1T:

Just now, Ookla the Nerdy said:

Honestly, I was just kinda suspicious of his behavior in C1. This is my second game, and the first was a BT so I have no idea what I'm doing.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Fair. How can we help you get an idea of what you're doing?

Edited December 19, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Nerdy (3): Xino, Mat, Bookwyrm, 
Silver (2): Kas, Wizard, 
Xino (2): Nerdy, Almond,
Devo (1): Aman,
TUN (1): Stick,

@_Stick_ what's your TUN pitch?

I do not remember Almond voting Xino or Xino voting Nerdy. Interesting triad.

ED1T:

@Ookla the Unknown where's your vote HUH

Edited December 19, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Haelbarde he/him]

Apologies, read some of thread when I woke up, but then got distracted painting minis.  Going to go reread thread and collect my thoughts. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Apologies, read some of thread when I woke up, but then got distracted painting minis.  Going to go reread thread and collect my thoughts. 

Yay. Maybe you can help me form more reads.

ED1T: @Szeth_Pancakes

Silver

I find it interesting that a lot of people in my PoE have avoided this train

ED2T:

Specifically that both Nerdy and Xino are voting each other but neither is voting Silver. I.E. both of them work on teams with Silver.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Amanuensis

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Specifically that both Nerdy and Xino are voting each other but neither is voting Silver. I.E. both of them work on teams with Silver.

Yeah it be strange. But I also possibly want to think of Xino/Nerdy not E/E because of the trains that have developed on them. It could possibly be explained away by them being the first votes on each other. But that could also be E/E if Xino wasn't around to tell Nerdy to remove his vote and I'm confusing myself with these circles. HELP!

Leave that alone for now unless Silver flips E, is what I think I have to do for now.

[Haelbarde he/him]

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

Apologies, read some of thread when I woke up, but then got distracted painting minis.  Going to go reread thread and collect my thoughts. 

It's taking awhile for me to get through, so posting an inprogress report, just got to the end of page 2.

First off, I'm glad we have reached the end of Ookla season and names have all returned to normal! Or mostly anyhow. 

Regarding JNV

I never really mused on the kill beyond calling out that I sus'd him as IC based on thread, to flag it as a potential option. To build on that, I figure the options were:
1. Random Kill
2. Linguistic Analysis 
3. Based on C1 posts

1. Random Kill - Not impossible, as JNV would have been a fairly low info kill, given they only posted 2-3 times. In this scenario, they just go lucky, but I'm not sure that there's much more to go on. I may have distracted from speculation on that by my suggesting option 3 at the start of cycle, so just flagging that for consideration if that hadn't played out already.
2. Linguistic Analysis - Not something to really speculate on in thread. The other IC/Winzik can make that judgment for themselves if that was likely or not, based on the doc. 
3. Based on C1 posts - As indicated at the start of this cycle, I think JNV posts were telling enough to put good odds on them being IC. Certainly based on reactions, as well as past memories, not sure that that sort of analysis is common. I feel Aman and Kas have plenty enough other tools in their toolbox anyway that it doesn't suit their style (particularly if they're both trying to play more casual these days). Feels a bit more like something in Fifth or Devotary's wheelhouse. I don't really know anyone else in this game well enough to comment. 

Moving on to the update player vibes/reads. As I started with, this is only as of the end of page 2. I'm flagging Devo, and particulary Wiz of needing more care given to reading their posts to evaluate my position on them.

Player Vibes
Village
- Strong: Hael
- Moderate: Stick
- Slight: Kas, Aman
Neutral
- Goodish: Fifth, Xino (Forgotten),  Bookwyrm (Perpetual), 
- Meh: Silvereye (Wind), Infinite
- Badish: Devo, Wiz (Myopic), TUN (Unknown), Mat (Tall)
Elim
- Slight: Exotic, Nerdy
- Moderate:
- Strong:
Absent
- 

Vibe movements:

• Aman and Kas: Highly active in thread, productive discussions and analysis. I'm conscious that both are great at doing that whether village or not, and they're both players I'm going to have a blindspot for. Putting them as village leaning for the moment, but I am going to have constantly reevaluate that I think. I'd consider upping Kas to moderate for the seeming unflinchably toe the line of the execution, only I don't think it's quite enough to clear him just yet. 
• Stick: I'm liking all their posts, and their approach feels right to me. Because that's resonating with me, without having spotted any red flags (not that I've searched deeply for them), putting them up to moderate village.
• Mat(t): They're feeling like last game. Which I was thinking was a good thing, but then he was E/E with me last game so... I should probably go through his posts more critically, but for the moment just based on feelings, dropping him down to badish vibes.
• Xino and eXotic: I feel uncomfortable with Exotic's vote on Xino. Without noticably following C1, just jumping in with a vote on Xino as their first post, as a new member of SE and claiming to be "too new" doesn't really feel like a clueless new villager move. I could see elim discussion of Kas' Xino vote in doc being like "yeah, we're happy for Xino to be executed", thus prompting the follow on vote from Exotic. Makes me lean elim on Exotic, and thus village on Xino, though I'd rather avoid executing Exotic so early in the game given it's their first game, and their first post. Xino hasn't done enough to actually get bumped into Slight Village though, so just moves to goodish vibes.
• Nerdy: I probably feel weirder about the Exotic post, but I already had Nerdy at badish, and their Xino post feels odd. Feels like one of the two is E, but probably not both. If neither, I'm very confused
• Bookwyrm: As a player with only 5 games under their belt, they're feeling like the right sort of confused and uncertain of how to proceed. Happy enough to bump them up to goodish, and/or slight village if they continue posting without any particular red flags.

---

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

On my own end, this is what the generator gives me:

Sequence: 5 - 8 - 1 - 5

Under KOTOR 2 rules, I believe you win due to tablemaxxing?

I really need to get back to this, and RP that game. But (re)reads first.

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

PSA for all newer players: Please stop voting the person who already has votes just because they already have votes. Thanks!

Will reread and respond and stuff in a bit

I forget why I quoted this. I think it was part of my "I need to reread his posts" thing. I agree with the sentiment here at least. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Haelbarde
Infinite turned up, so is no longer absent, so should be in meh as of end of page 2.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

@Ookla the Unknown where's your vote HUH

What vote?

I don't vote unless I'm pretty confident in it (excepting joke votes like Mat, which I often withdraw, and the last LG, where I made a point to vote more).

[Haelbarde he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

What vote?

I don't vote unless I'm pretty confident in it (excepting joke votes like Mat, which I often withdraw, and the last LG, where I made a point to vote more).

If everyone voted only if they felt confident in their vote, almost no one would vote ever. It's all the low info, gut feeling, uncertain votes that help bring the game to the point where you can start making those confident votes. 

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Mat(t): They're feeling like last game. Which I was thinking was a good thing, but then he was E/E with me last game so...

No no see this just means I’m a good elim right 

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

I don't vote unless I'm pretty confident in it (excepting joke votes like Mat, which I often withdraw, and the last LG, where I made a point to vote more).

I’m surprised to hear your vote on me was a joke. I definitely thought you voted me because you thought I was elimmy for claiming Winzik.

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

What vote?

I don't vote unless I'm pretty confident in it (excepting joke votes like Mat, which I often withdraw, and the last LG, where I made a point to vote more).

Exactly!

Surely you have some suspicions, yes? Or at least trusts?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

9 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

If everyone voted only if they felt confident in their vote, almost no one would vote ever. It's all the low info, gut feeling, uncertain votes that help bring the game to the point where you can start making those confident votes. 

That's why I don't suggest others do what I do. And I follow gut feelings, I just prefer them to be more solid than most. I also don't tend to have enough time to do some crazy vote analysis like some people do. And it works to. See the AG (two ago maybe, Kas could probably tell you) where I suspected like three of the five man team C1. Gorilla was one of them for easier searching.

[Amanuensis he/him]

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

That's why I don't suggest others do what I do. And I follow gut feelings, I just prefer them to be more solid than most. I also don't tend to have enough time to do some crazy vote analysis like some people do. And it works to. See the AG (two ago maybe, Kas could probably tell you) where I suspected like three of the five man team C1. Gorilla was one of them for easier searching.

Oh wow you didn't edit a response to my post yet.

My question is, if you suspected three of the five-man team in AG8, who do you suspect this game?