Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Haelbarde he/him]

52 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I do want to ask Hael why he voted for Dannex because as far as my (admittedly rushed) reread can tell, he never actually criticised Dannex nor did he flag any of his posts as suspicious so I'm curious to know why he voted there. Was it just to save Kas? Why did you want to save Kas? Kas was in your 'Baddish' vibes list, along with Dannex.

The vibes list was a way of representing where my head was at at the time, without writing down all the specifics of what was prompting those thoughts. I can go through and actually vocalise those thoughts this cycle if you want, but I think Dannex made it on to the Badish list based on their responses earlier in cycle not feeling quite right. Again, can pull up the specifics for you in the morning. The actual choice to vote on Dannex was then based on considering the options on the Badish list, arriving on Dannex mostly by a matter of elimination. It's been awhile since I've played regularly, so although it's likely not the best strategy for supporting one's alignment, I prefer to avoid immediately killing old acquaintances. So in this case, Devo and Kas had a pass. Nerdy got a pass for it being their second game, and I don't think getting D1'd that early in one's SE career is fair. I killed TUN cycle 1 last game, after which I learned they'd recently died early in the previous few games or something, so I really didn't want to kill them first turn either. That left us with Dannex and Wiz. The decision there was based on Dannex having made more posts which seemed more significant for a bad vibe to be sticking around, than Wizards... 3 posts? Of which I think only one was noteworthy.  

Kas' reactions last cycle after he put himself up for execution were making me strongly read Kas as village, so that then reinforced the desire to remain on Dannex to keep Kas alive, though I would have accepted a Wizard counter execution had there been enough additional interest in supporting Aman on Wizard.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

And this is slightly too well thought-out for my comfort.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Cycle 1 comments on rules are almost always very telling, particularly when relating to those unique to the game, or when it's more of a rolemadness game. It's funny, it's often the coinshots that best can explain the coinshot rules if anyone happens to be confused in thread   If you want, I can go back and find in my earlier games examples of me doing that sort of analysis before. I definitely know I've made accurate predictions based on that sort of thing before, though it's been so long since I've played that I couldn't say for sure that it is spelled out in a post, doc, or PM.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Haelbarde said:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Cycle 1 comments on rules are almost always very telling, particularly when relating to those unique to the game, or when it's more of a rolemadness game. It's funny, it's often the coinshots that best can explain the coinshot rules if anyone happens to be confused in thread   If you want, I can go back and find in my earlier games examples of me doing that sort of analysis before. I definitely know I've made accurate predictions based on that sort of thing before, though it's been so long since I've played that I couldn't say for sure that it is spelled out in a post, doc, or PM.

I'm sensing a shadow repeat here :|

[Haelbarde he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I'm sensing a shadow repeat here :|

Though I'm guessing it's saying you don't think favourably of my response, I'm not sure what you mean by shadow repeat  

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Haelbarde said:

Though I'm guessing it's saying you don't think favourably of my response, I'm not sure what you mean by shadow repeat  

Ah no, I actually meant it's a IKYK.

I sort of want to say it was D2 of LG90 - Shadow straightforwardly admitted she would have NKed me N1. She got sussed for it, and there was some IKYK there, but she really was Village and was just saying it like it was.

I haven't played with E you in a long time and the last time I did, I IDed you through voting patterns so that's what I'm sticking to. Part of me does want to give you V credit for just saying it though >>

[Haelbarde he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Ah no, I actually meant it's a IKYK.

I sort of want to say it was D2 of LG90 - Shadow straightforwardly admitted she would have NKed me N1. She got sussed for it, and there was some IKYK there, but she really was Village and was just saying it like it was.

I haven't played with E you in a long time and the last time I did, I IDed you through voting patterns so that's what I'm sticking to. Part of me does want to give you V credit for just saying it though >>

Heh fair enough. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Spoiler

On 12/18/2022 at 9:21 PM, Haelbarde said:

10, 2, 4, 7 + play card, 2, 10

[10] [2] [4]
[7] [Flip 2&4] [2]
[10] [?] [?]

[Flip 2&4] [X] [X] [X]

On my own end, this is what the generator gives me:

Quote

Table:

[5] [8] [1]
[5] [?] [?]
[?] [?] [?]

Hand:

[X] [X] [X] [X]

Sequence: 5 - 8 - 1 - 5

Under KOTOR 2 rules, I believe you win due to tablemaxxing?

[NerdyAarakocra They/Them]

Hmm... I'm going to go with Xino for now. The fact remains that I have no idea how play this, but Xino seems kinda suspicious after his posts in C1.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

I'm somewhat confused with the Xino train. As far as I see, he posted once in Cycle 1:

Which boils down to an excuse for inactivity and a vote on Kasimir.

The only thing that's incriminating here is the vote on Kasimir. Based on Stick's reasoning here:

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I think there's a minimum of one elim among the Dannex voters and a maximum of one elim among the Kas voters. I say max one elim because no elim in their right mind would vote there alongside a teammate, bringing both of them to the spotlight unnecessarily. I'm inclined to trust Kas for now so that leaves me with <Aman, Silvereye, Hael> and <Nerdy, xino> as pools for potential elims.

I think Xino could be an Elim. But I don't see enough evidence to go off of that warrants a train on him.

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Nerdy said:

Xino seems kinda suspicious after his posts in C1.

With this further information, would you care to elaborate?

[Stick. she/her]

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but Bookwyrm and Dannex only share two games: LG90 and BT3. Dannex never even seriously came under suspicion in BT3 and BT3 was so whack (cf. TUN's immortal statement about being a Villager because he had killed too many Villagers!) that it just shouldn't count. In LG90, Danex was Evil. This is one of the cases where doing more just feels ??? because your main baseline was Evil Danex.

This is very interesting. @Ookla the Perpetual what exactly were you referring to when you said 'than what I've seen him do in the past'? Perhaps you were referring to MR62 where Dannex was village and did little to deflect suspicion, in stark contrast to their defensiveness against votes yesterday?

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

which would be the main defeater for a comparison here

Wait why is that? I didn't really think of it as self-pres because Elk would've voted on Bookwyrm if he ever came online since voting xino would not have saved Elk, and also Tani hadn't voted yet. Idk xino didn't really say a word in the doc that turn  I didn't think he was too worried.

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What informs the change of your TUN thoughts?

I read the posts from previous games you cited - I don't think I should be village reading them for encouraging mechanics discussion. That, plus TUN not voting at all after the Mat retraction and subsequently not providing any reads/opinions on other players at all this cycle either.

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why? I don't get a strong feeling from this as our team tried distancing in MR59 and I believe that's what she's referencing. On re-reading I actually get a sense of V!Devo off this, but not a strong one.

Devo's statement about e!Fifth pushing Dannex didn't make a lot of sense to me (since Fifth was not pushing Dannex, as he points out) and like personally if I wanted to distance myself from a teammate I would do it in a way that made more sense? xD It feels like a genuine misunderstanding on Devo's part which I don't expect happens in a Fifth/Devo E/E world.

56 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why?

Loving all the questions  Keep em coming. But I've explained my stance on Silvereye, Hael and xino. I'm side-eyeing Mat due to his vote on me because I have a suspicion that he's doing that because I pointed out in LG90 that he wasn't as paranoid of me as I would expect from V!Mat. But it's just a gut feeling for now. 

46 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

The vibes list was a way of representing where my head was at at the time, without writing down all the specifics of what was prompting those thoughts. I can go through and actually vocalise those thoughts this cycle if you want, but I think Dannex made it on to the Badish list based on their responses earlier in cycle not feeling quite right. Again, can pull up the specifics for you in the morning. The actual choice to vote on Dannex was then based on considering the options on the Badish list, arriving on Dannex mostly by a matter of elimination. It's been awhile since I've played regularly, so although it's likely not the best strategy for supporting one's alignment, I prefer to avoid immediately killing old acquaintances. So in this case, Devo and Kas had a pass. Nerdy got a pass for it being their second game, and I don't think getting D1'd that early in one's SE career is fair. I killed TUN cycle 1 last game, after which I learned they'd recently died early in the previous few games or something, so I really didn't want to kill them first turn either. That left us with Dannex and Wiz. The decision there was based on Dannex having made more posts which seemed more significant for a bad vibe to be sticking around, than Wizards... 3 posts? Of which I think only one was noteworthy.  

Kas' reactions last cycle after he put himself up for execution were making me strongly read Kas as village, so that then reinforced the desire to remain on Dannex to keep Kas alive, though I would have accepted a Wizard counter execution had there been enough additional interest in supporting Aman on Wizard.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Cycle 1 comments on rules are almost always very telling, particularly when relating to those unique to the game, or when it's more of a rolemadness game. It's funny, it's often the coinshots that best can explain the coinshot rules if anyone happens to be confused in thread   If you want, I can go back and find in my earlier games examples of me doing that sort of analysis before. I definitely know I've made accurate predictions based on that sort of thing before, though it's been so long since I've played that I couldn't say for sure that it is spelled out in a post, doc, or PM.

Hmmm okay fair enough on the Dannex vote, but one question: If someone had asked you to explain why you had JNV in your village tiers last cycle, how would you have responded?

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Perhaps you were referring to MR62 where Dannex was village

Stick...

...............

.............Are you......................

............................the Doctor....? :eyes:

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Wait why is that? I didn't really think of it as self-pres because Elk would've voted on Bookwyrm if he ever came online since voting xino would not have saved Elk, and also Tani hadn't voted yet. Idk xino didn't really say a word in the doc that turn  I didn't think he was too worried.

It's the theory I was running off anyway, that Xino was worried about the margins. If the self-pres element did matter, then it's not a good comparison, which is a problem for your theory. But fair point.

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I read the posts from previous games you cited - I don't think I should be village reading them for encouraging mechanics discussion. That, plus TUN not voting at all after the Mat retraction and subsequently not providing any reads/opinions on other players at all this cycle either.

Isn't that much standard TUN though? It's weird because reading those posts sort of nudged me towards your view of V!TUN - he's at least saying more about it rather than slipping under the radar or trying to skate by than he usually does, even though I also still find it weird that he wanted the discussion but wasn't interested in it.

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Devo's statement about e!Fifth pushing Dannex didn't make a lot of sense to me (since Fifth was not pushing Dannex, as he points out) and like personally if I wanted to distance myself from a teammate I would do it in a way that made more sense? xD It feels like a genuine misunderstanding on Devo's part which I don't expect happens in a Fifth/Devo E/E world.

Fair, I'll agree with that one  So I'm currently looking at either V!Devo/E!Fifth or V!Devo/V!Fifth, oy vey.

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Loving all the questions  Keep em coming. But I've explained my stance on Silvereye, Hael and xino. I'm side-eyeing Mat due to his vote on me because I have a suspicion that he's doing that because I pointed out in LG90 that he wasn't as paranoid of me as I would expect from V!Mat. But it's just a gut feeling for now. 

Intend to. Am going back and re-reading and asking about anything that's not obvious to me.

Mast was the one I was interested in. Currently lean V!Mat, but slightly stronger V!you feelings for now.

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Hmmm okay fair enough on the Dannex vote, but one question: If someone had asked you to explain why you had JNV in your village tiers last cycle, how would you have responded?

I have a question about this, but I think it is best for me to wait for Hael's response first. I - have a very, very weak V lean on Hael but that relies on a single point that is extremely defeasible (and doesn't connect to the JNV-Winzik issue.)

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ - Perhaps this is too meta and I'll willingly back off on it, but quite honestly, if you are Szeth and you just came off a game in which E!Xino went inactive and the dead doc is going on about how this is a E!Xino tell, do you immediately run an E!Xino team again?

Edited December 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde he/him]

34 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

  Hide contents

 

On my own end, this is what the generator gives me:

Sequence: 5 - 8 - 1 - 5

Under KOTOR 2 rules, I believe you win due to tablemaxxing?

Unfortunately not. The flip 2&4 doesn't apply to cards played after it, so that's a bust at 23. Tablemaxing only applies if you get a score below 20 after playing 9 cards. 

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Hmmm okay fair enough on the Dannex vote, but one question: If someone had asked you to explain why you had JNV in your village tiers last cycle, how would you have responded?

It was foolish of me to put them as village in my reads, given I placed them on my slight village read because I was confident they were IC. Given that was the actual reason, I'd have had to come up with something, so I would have looked back at their posts at that point, and likely would have commented something along the lines of "They seemed earnest enough in their posts, engaging in the right sort of way to be helpful to the village, provided they do continue to post. Based on my general impression of them, without any immediate red flags to me, willing to bump them into slight village over goodish neutral vibes."

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

MR62

...I'm confused. There isn't an MR62 yet.

...Okay, I did a mistake.

I just spent like ten minutes going back and checking, and the only game I've played with Dannex is LG90, where he was Elim. The other one was BT3, which was broken anyway.

For some reason though, seem to have memories of Dannex playing in a very relaxed way, and his actions last cycle contrasted from that. So if that assumption was inaccurate...

I feel silly now.

I still stand on my Xino train confusion, though. 

[Stick. she/her]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Stick...

...............

.............Are you......................

............................the Doctor....? :eyes

I was testing to see whether Bookwyrm would grab the lifeline I was handing them by immediately confirming that that was indeed the case without checking to see that the game does not exist.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Isn't that much standard TUN though? It's weird because reading those posts sort of nudged me towards your view of V!TUN - he's at least saying more about it rather than slipping under the radar or trying to skate by than he usually does, even though I also still find it weird that he wanted the discussion but wasn't interested in it

Yeahhh Idk, I will say that I'm not exactly elim reading TUN but I rescind my village read. 

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Perhaps this is too meta and I'll willingly back off on it, but quite honestly, if you are Szeth and you just came off a game in which E!Xino went inactive and the dead doc is going on about how this is a E!Xino tell, do you immediately run an E!Xino team again?

I don't see why I wouldn't!  Just to test the hypothesis. But the more important question is: does E!xino, having read the dead doc going on and on about inactivity being an E!xino tell, immediately go into inactivity in his next elim game? I want to say no to that tbh. This is impacting my xino read.

12 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

It was foolish of me to put them as village in my reads, given I placed them on my slight village read because I was confident they were IC. Given that was the actual reason, I'd have had to come up with something, so I would have looked back at their posts at that point, and likely would have commented something along the lines of "They seemed earnest enough in their posts, engaging in the right sort of way to be helpful to the village, provided they do continue to post. Based on my general impression of them, without any immediate red flags to me, willing to bump them into slight village over goodish neutral vibes."

Okay this is satisfactory I guess but I'm keeping an eye on you ;eye; Don't see why you can't be elim still but...

Silvereye where are you? ;-;

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Read through one: Aman is village

Read through two: Aman is village

Read through three: Aman is evil

Read through four: Aman is village

I am thoroughly confused on Aman, and perhaps it is partially last game and watching from the dead doc.

Aman

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I was testing to see whether Bookwyrm would grab the lifeline I was handing them by immediately confirming that that was indeed the case without checking to see that the game does not exist.

Sorry the Doctor Who joke was too good to miss  Definitely scuffed your reaction test though, for which I'm sorry!

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't see why I wouldn't!  Just to test the hypothesis. But the more important question is: does E!xino, having read the dead doc going on and on about inactivity being an E!xino tell, immediately go into inactivity in his next elim game? I want to say no to that tbh. This is impacting my xino read.

That would actually be my concern as well but less so on the whether Xino is changing front, more so on the Szeth front. Like - I guess I come from the perspective that it's probably not a deliberate play on Xino's part, just a fundamental discomfort or lack of interest in being Evil. He mentions a lot of times he has RL, which I absolutely think factors in. Which makes it more plausible to me E!him just gives up when there's friction. V!him keeps on showing up. So incentives/attractiveness issue. And I can relate because that is a problem I have when Evil which takes us back to that LG90 longpost and so on. What I'd say I guess is two things:

1. I don't know how much you can change your fundamental psychological incentives, barring an entire different approach. That is, if your inactivity is driven by the fact being Evil isn't appealing to you (and just guessing here) E!you lacks comfort with the thread and just sort of loses motivation to check in, can you really change that just by willing yourself to? It feels like a whole psychology/incentives issue. And yeah I can confirm I've thought a lot about that because of myself and my E problem.

2. I feel like as a GM I would be concerned for my game balance. But there's also the element where you don't want players to be able to meta-game your rands so I'm happy leaving that aside.

3. I guess we come back to how pure you think the trains are, too.

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Myopic said:

Read through one: Aman is village

Read through two: Aman is village

Read through three: Aman is evil

Read through four: Aman is village

I am thoroughly confused on Aman, and perhaps it is partially last game and watching from the dead doc.

Aman

Hoo boy.

FWIW if Aman is Evil he is cheering inside for you now  

Edited to add: @_Stick_ Sorry, forgot:

#4: - 

This happens, too. I think rushing to vote is odd when you haven't even read the cycle and are endangered, but the trend shouldn't blind us to the fact that this does happen with V!Xino as well because RL. I just think we see more positive engagement from him when he's V even with RL but there's a lot of give in that read.

So in short I don't disagree with you and given more data, could be incentivised to stop regarding him as a train I'd be happy to back today.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner  just saying

@Ookla the Perpetual if you don't like the Xino train, then what train would you prefer?

Edited December 19, 2022 by Amanuensis

[The Unknown Order he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Do you remember MR57 where half the Village and their cow was @ing you and your notifs exploded?

Mat was going to be pinged by my quoting him anyway, I just wanted to draw his attention to that section without duplicating notifications unnecessarily.

I don't remember because I prefer that.

I pay like 1 unit of attention to everything, 1.25 to reads of me, 1.5 to quotes and votes, and 2 to mentions.

And I'm pretty sure the quote and mention notifs don't double up. @Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner  just saying

What did we say about not open-wolfing in the bloody thread?!??!?!!

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

And I'm pretty sure the quote and mention notifs don't double up. @Kasimir

Thanks, TIL.

Question for you as I'm backreading right now: why the Mat unvote? @Ookla the Unknown

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ - Not sure if you missed this or I forgot to ask, but why did you read Nerdy as null+? I'm at their post right now and they're a solid null for me.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

Sorry, open-wolfing is just too fun

[Mat he/him]

PSA for all newer players: Please stop voting the person who already has votes just because they already have votes. Thanks!

Will reread and respond and stuff in a bit

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW if Aman is Evil he is cheering inside for you now  

 

Because I became a possible LHF or because he likes it when people find him?

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Sorry, open-wolfing is just too fun

10/10, I agree but it gets you caught more often than not.

Quite honestly I am voting you because of the swinginess that I get when reading you, either high village or high evil. I don't even care that you voted on me last cycle, I would have voted myself last cycle.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

35 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If I'm evil, Kas is my partner  just saying

@Ookla the Perpetual if you don't like the Xino train, then what train would you prefer?

Something I'm unsure of right now. I don't want to be hasty, considering how poorly my Dannex vote turned out.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Myopic said:

Because I became a possible LHF or because he likes it when people find him?

His view is that a good Elim must be a tester/tempter: your job is to test the Village and to give the Village as hard a time as possible. But he's fundamentally a Village player at heart and likes it when the Village does see through him.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Like any serial killer, I yearn to someday be caught and acknowledged for my work 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

His view is that a good Elim must be a tester/tempter: your job is to test the Village and to give the Village as hard a time as possible. But he's fundamentally a Village player at heart and likes it when the Village does see through him.

Yes, I agree that a good evil person has to make the village strive for victory. For an easy victory is never appreciated.

And I mean, who isn't really a village player at heart

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Like any serial killer, I yearn to someday be caught and acknowledged for my work 

Well it seems like today is your day